NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

Desperation is a Stinky Cologne

Georgetown and Cincinnati confirmed that notion this evening.

After holding a firm 15-point lead in the Garden, Georgetown blew it. Plain and simple. Though they were hard done by a timeout that should not have been granted and a foul that was not in the last 15 seconds of regulation, it never should have even been a game at that juncture. Three letters summarize my thoughts. N-I-T. JT3 should pay back his salary a la Bob Knight. His players looked clueless and underprepared in the closing minutes.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State won a must-win game against fellow bubble team Kansas State behind the leadership of senior guard Byron Eaton. 15 for 15 from the charity stripe. 'Nuff said.

At Cameron Indoor, Duke was behind for much of the night but they seem to be in firm position with under a minute left behind some hot shooting by Kyle Singler. In an amazing development, Leonard Hamilton is still wearing his tie.

Also, Maryland, Ohio State, Utah and Syracuse are knotted up in close games, all with severe at-large bid implications.

2008 NCAA Projections - March 12, 2008

Last night, the committee arrived in Indianapolis. Tomorrow, they will submit their list of “lock teams”. As of the end of play on Tuesday night, we estimate that the teams listed in seed lines #1-7 are considered to be “locks” for the NCAA Tournament. While I love what Kentucky has done, they are truly one injury away from being on the outside looking in despite an impressive 12-4 record in the SEC and having crushed the subjective eye test since the Vanderbilt debacle.

That leaves 18 bids for the taking. What does that mean? In brief, the next four days of basketball will go a long way in determining who is in and out (Sunday is not a big moving day for tournament seedings, unless your name is Joe Lunardi and the clock has just struck 5:50pm ET). In other words, no team beyond Mississippi State excluding automatic bids are safe.

Here are Paymon’s early thoughts …

• If teams are considered by team and not WCC #3, it will be hard to unseat St. Mary’s.
• Davidson deserves a massive jump in the seedings because they took care of business. Because some bubble teams will win unexpectedly, they will likely become a #10 seed.
• The fate of VCU and South Alabama from here on out may be determined by their opponents who have games yet to play. The decider is multifactorial. First, VCU won its conference by 3 games. Second, they won three neutral/away games in non-conference play.
• I’m having a difficult time understanding why Arizona State is out of Joe Lunardi’s bracket. They earned the #5 seed in the nation’s best conference; a conference which uses a round-robin scheduling mechanism. In doing so, they defeated the conference’s #2, #4, #6 and #7 (sweep) teams in addition to the A-14’s #1 team. In a field with such a dearth of good wins, the Sun Devils don’t have enough bad losses to counteract their good wins.
• If Florida and Ole Miss BOTH make the SEC semifinals, it will be a play-in/elimination game.
• While results are important, scorelines on the neutral court play a role as well. If a team such as Ohio State loses badly against Michigan State, then their recent home resume-padders are diluted. This may result in an invitation to the Not Important Tournament.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, which is highlighted by over ten hours of opening round coverage of the Big East Tournament, Clement tackles four games that are on his mind. To no one’s surprise who reads this blog religiously, we start with …

1) Big East Tournament: Syracuse vs. Villanova
-Far from fans of South Alabama and Gonzaga after Monday Night, the Orange and the Wildcats both sit at 9-9 in the Big East. Both own a win on the other’s homecourt, both have underachieved quite a bit this season and both are in just about every media pundits “last four out”. This game obviously appears to be an elimination game. The loser stands little to no chance of securing anything but a 2-seed in the NIT. In fact, the winner may simply be the Big East team first left out. A win over Georgetown would be vital for either to stake a truly legitimate claim. The problem is: if all these at-large bids keep closing up, is a semi-final appearance truly enough for either Big East .500 squad?

2) Big East Tournament Opening Round: West Virginia vs. Providence
-A home win against Pitt this past week almost assuredly locked the Mountaineers into the last “safe bid” in the Big East. Right? Not so fast, especially when you consider how strong the media has been pushing them onto the bubble and their somewhat hidden #5 seed in the Big East Tournament. Not to mention that 10+-win in the Big East is nice, but not as nice considering they now play an 18 game schedule (thank you, Doug Gottlieb). Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. If WVU loses, and perhaps Syracuse, Villanova or a surprise team makes a Big East run, could WVU be entrenched in bubble fever come 6pm on Sunday night? My inside sources tell me yes (thank you, Peter Vecsey).

3) Pac-10 Tournament Opening Round: Arizona vs. Oregon State
-Typically, there wouldn’t be any consideration given to a team as terrible as the Beavers this season. However, with their loss to Oregon this past Saturday night, #2 SOS Wildcats (come on, that’s their motto these days), opened the door for potentially two Pac-10 teams with losing conference records getting in (it’s never happened to one Pac-10 team before). The one thing Arizona can do to help itself most is crush OSU and take out the “are-they-struggling” Cardinal. The worst: lose to Oregon State and any SOS may have to go straight out the window.

4) A-10 Tournament Opening Round: Charlotte vs. Rhode Island
-In A-10 play, Xavier is easily a sure-fire tournament team. However, the rest of the conference appears much murkier than it did only six weeks ago. In fact, this matchup of #6 Charlotte vs. #11 Rhode Island may lead to an interesting quarterfinal matchup against #3 UMass. The Minutemen appear the safest bet to acquire an at-large bid, for now. In truth, eyes will be focused intently on potential upsets that could prevent a tricky A-10 final four: Xavier/St. Joe’s & UMass/Temple could. A nightmarish scenario unfolds if Dayton upsets top-seed Xavier in the quarterfinals. Don’t even get me started on that…

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon)
6: Washington State, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Marquette
7: Clemson, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, BYU, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL
9: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Davidson (Southern), Arkansas
10: Baylor, Arizona, UNLV (MWC), St. Mary’s
11: Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia, Illinois State
12: Ohio State, Temple, VCU, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), San Diego (WCC), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Illinois State, Ohio State, Temple, VCU
Last Four Out: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, UMass
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Dayton, UAB, Ole Miss
On The Radar: Maryland, New Mexico, Florida

IN: Western Kentucky, San Diego, VCU
OUT: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 5/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Colonial: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

2008 NCAA Projections - March 10, 2008

Christmas: Easily one of Philly's finest

Credit: Fans Only

(Editor's Note: This bracket does not reflect the result of the St. Mary's - San Diego game)

Last week, we held off on putting UNC as the #1 overall seed because they lacked that signature win. On Saturday, they got that win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, spoiling senior night for Duke, and for DaMarcus Nelson in particular. As for UCLA, they remained a #1 seed despite having two games which they probably should have lost. As a result, the gap between overall #4 and #5 teams on the big board has tightened.

In the Big East, Georgetown overcame Louisville to win the Big East regular season championship. Though Clement has a feeling that UConn may take the spoils at MSG, we project that the Hoya faithful will tell us exactly who they are when the clock shows three zeroes.

Moving to the fourth seed line, though we include MVC champ Drake, we really see them as a #5 seed; however, everyone else lost a game that they really should not have. On the seventh seed line, Marquette is a squad that can jump leaps and bounds with a superb showing at MSG, but we just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, let’s take a detour to the bubble.

- We have Ohio State as a #10 seed. Are they in? Not quite yet. Why are they so high? Perhaps, it’s because the Selection Committee loves to overrate quality March victories. This seeding may be one that we may need to review after their game against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.

- In deciding upon either Baylor or West Virginia for the final #10 seed, Baylor’s ability to the Big East #3 on a neutral court was more valuable than any single win that the Mountaineers had.

- In the PAC 10, we like seven teams as of right now. If Oregon loses by double digits against Washington State, then they will likely be out of the equation. Though Arizona finished 8-10 in conference, their #2 SOS nationally and a season sweep of the Cougars makes them more than viable.

- In the conference otherwise known as the A-14, we see Temple having the best opportunity to be the team that faces (and loses to) Xavier in the final. With their huge win against Xavier, St. Joseph’s claims the 34th at-large bid, outlasting VCU who lost a shocker to William & Mary. Of course, a sweep over UMass and a blowout win over Villanova never hurt. Despite winning both games this week, Dayton is now #8 seed, meaning that if they defeat St. Louis in the 1st round, they will face Xavier in the quarterfinals. Neither Clement nor myself felt brave enough to make that prediction regardless of whether Chris Wright plays.

- As stated for weeks, we expect UNLV to win the Mountain West Tournament on their home court. In doing that, we see them defeating both BYU and New Mexico, which shall help their resume.

- In the ACC, an expected loss for Virginia Tech and an unexpected one for Maryland (although Clement would have never put money on that game) meant doom and 4 seeds for now.

- Lastly, who is the best candidate to be this year’s Arkansas? That would be Ole Miss, who won its last three conference games to finish 7-9. Meanwhile, they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a rarity. Additionally, they can avoid Tennessee until the finals.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Indiana, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Pittsburgh
7: Marquette, Clemson, Kansas State, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, BYU, Kent State (MAC)
9: Miami-FL, Arizona State, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Oklahoma
10: Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor, West Virginia
11: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), UNLV (MWC), Illinois State
12: Texas A&M, Villanova, Temple, Oregon
13: St. Joseph’s, George Mason (CAA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: VCU, UMass, Syracuse, UAB
Next Four Out: Dayton, Maryland, Florida, Ole Miss

IN: Ohio State, Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Sacred Heart
OUT: VCU, Maryland, UMass, Southern Illinois, Dayton, Florida, Cal State Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Seeding Summary(Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 7/10
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big East: 7/16
ACC: 4/12
Big Ten: 5/11

West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
A-10: 3/14

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

BCS Title Pre-Game Analysis: #1. Ohio State vs. #2. LSU

0-4 with my initial BCS picks? OUCH is definitely the word.

I haven't felt like such an airhead since...

Ohio State Do’s and Don’t’s:

Most PHSports writers tab Beanie Wells for a big night.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do pound the ball early and often with Chris “Beanie” Wells (5.8 yds/rush). Even if the LSU defense roars early, Wells should have well over a dozen carries before halftime. It’s essential, especially when attempting to open up play-action passing downfield, that LSU being given a steady diet of the Buckeyes most talented offensive threat.

Do take advantage of turnovers. LSU has proven they’ll give the ball away and give up the big play on special teams. If Ohio State is given a short field, it must score points. We’re not talking field goals either.

Do open up some big play opportunities. While Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline won’t jump off of the stat pages, they’re solid possession wideouts. Don’t be afraid to air out the ball, especially on 2nd and short, and try to hit the home run against the Tigers D.

Do not give 2007’s BCS Title game a single thought. The game was a complete disaster from start to finish. Jim Tressel appeared outcoached 1 second after the Ted Ginn Jr. kickoff return for a TD. While Urban Meyer isn’t across the field, Les Myles is a savvy coach who isn’t afraid to make a gutsy call.

Do not leave Boeckman without extra protection in the pocket. While speed obviously favors LSU, size can help Ohio State. Keep extra tight ends and backs in the backfield whenever possible. We’ve seen in previous title games (USC/Oklahoma & Florida/OSU just how much size can succumb to raw speed).

Do not allow Vernon Gholston to remain on one side of the line for very long. Move this absolute beat of a pass rusher around. One or two hits to Matt Flynn and the Tigers will have to change the entire protection scheme. Gholston’s too talented a defender not to be flying all over the field.

LSU Do’s and Don’t’s:

More than just media attention must be paid to DT Glenn Dorsey.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do isolate a few gadget plays from Trindon Holliday. It’s important that LSU doesn’t lose its identity. While the Tigers have won and loss seemingly countless games in the closing seconds, there’s no reason to become uber-conservative and not take advantage of a glaring speed and overall athletic-advantage numerous players on their roster offer them.

Do switch up defensive looks and keep Todd Boeckman guessing. Only his first-year as a starter, Boeckman has never seen a defense – out of the SEC too – like the Tigers. Glenn Dorsey may be next year’s number 1 pick, but there is a ton of talent on this roster. The secondary has issues, so be sure to disguise blitzes and zone schemes whenever possible to prevent giving up the big plays.

Do pound Jacob Hester on 3rd and short. He’s a solid short-yardage runner who grinds out tough yards. While that would appear to play into a Big Ten mentality, Hester’s nose for the redzone is too good to pass up.

Do not believe the numbers. Sure, Ohio State is 0-8 against the SEC in bowl games. Big deal. This isn’t about 2007 or any other year for that matter. The Tigers have a bad loss, at home, to an unranked Arkansas team to prove how beatable they can become. Simply showing up won’t equate to a second BCS title.

Do not lose big on the special teams battle. One area where Ohio State may have a decided advantage is special teams. If the game is close, don’t allow poor kickoff coverage or missed field goals be the difference. Avoid costly penalties and wrap-up at all costs.

Do not stop rotating QBs Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux. It’s become more and more apparent than in the modern landscape of college football, variety is the ultimate benefit at the position. Balance using both QBs legs and redzone abilities as you have done all season thus far.

Key Matchup:

Jim Tressel vs. Les Miles
Tressel is in his third national title game (seeking his second win) and second consecutive. Miles may be in his first title hurrah, but was coveted my Michigan and is as flamboyant a sideline personality as you’re likely to find. LSU has lived and died in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter, while Ohio State has been rather quiet this year (only making headlines when losing at home to Illinois and then defeating Michigan). While Tressel no longer surprises anyone with his expertise and game-planning, it’d be a mistake to believe that LSU and Les Miles have won simply by showing up.

Intangible:

Homefield Advantage?
Don’t give it a second thought. Superdome or not. The Buckeyes travel as well as any team, the tickets are allotted reasonable well, and Hurricane Katrina has NOTHING to do with this game. Sorry, Chris Berman.

PHSports Final Score Predictions:
Clement: LSU wins 27-20
MVP: Jacob Hester

Armin: Ohio State wins 44-38
MVP: Chris Wells

Sum: LSU wins 31-23.
MVP: Glenn Dorsey

Pay: LSU wins 28-24.
MVP: Chris Wells

Until next season…

Oden Headlines Potential Ohio State and Nevada Exodus

Later today, Greg Oden is expected to formally announce that he will declare himself eligible for this year's NBA Draft. He will hire an agent, who is rumored to be Mike Conley Sr. Additionally, freshmen teammates Mike Conley Jr. and Daequan Cook will also declare for the draft, but will not reportedly hire an agent.

As we know, Oden is the odds-on #1 pick overall. Conley Jr.'s display in the NCAA tournament catapulted him into the mid-to-late lottery. At most draft projection sites, the elite point guard is expected to go to the Atlanta Hawks (via trade with Indiana) with what is now the 12th pick overall. His talent posits that can go higher, but he may slip due to teams needing bigger players. The third wheel, Daequan Cook, flourished within the open court system that the Buckeyes employed prior to Greg Oden's arrival. Cook's explosiveness in and around the hoop, shooting range and general upside make him a potential mid-to-late 1st round pick should he excel in pre-draft workouts.

One Way to Guarantee Conley Jr. Staying in the Draft
By now, we know for sure that if given the chance, Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. would love to play on the same team in the NBA. However, it's just not likely. By not likely, it's about 11.9% likely. Currently, the Phoenix Suns hold the 4th pick overall, which they received from the Atlanta Hawks via the trade for Joe Johnson. That pick has a top 3 protection, meaning that the pick will belong to Atlanta if they somehow get drawn into the top 3. If the Hawks get the luck of the draw and somehow land the #1 pick overall, they will have a chance at drafting the dynamic duo.

Nevada Guards Testing Waters
Nevada junior guards Marcelus Kemp and Ramon Sessions are also entering the draft, but will not be hiring an agent. Though Wolfpack head coach Mark Fox has praised the duo, he has recommended that both return to school for their senior seasons if they are not guaranteed first-round draft picks. This is not new territory for Fox or for the guards, because last year, teammate Nick Fazekas explored his draft possibilities, but ultimately returned to Reno for his senior year. At present, both Kemp and Sessions have potential 2nd-round stock.

Given that many NBA teams attempt to hit home runs in the 2nd round by drafting project-type players from overseas, the guards may slip out of the draft entirely.

Draft Stock Summary

Greg Oden -- 1st pick overall
Mike Conley Jr. -- Could be taken as high as 5, if Seattle decides to go with a point guard. Sacramento and Philadelphia at 10 and 11, respectively, may go with Conley should Mike Bibby and Andre Miller not be in the long term picture for their teams. If not, he'll go to Atlanta, who should have the ammunition to move up in the draft.
Daequan Cook -- Late first round to undrafted. Boatloads of upside yet to be realized (AKA "The NBA Dream"). Unlike his playing time that dwindled during the season, Cook will have a say in his ability to be drafted in the 1st round.
Marcelus Kemp -- A likely second round pick, if drafted at all. Is considered behind shooting guards such as Nicholas Batum (France), Nick Young, Arron Afflalo, Marco Belinelli (Italy), Derrick Byars, Rudy Fernandez (Spain), Marcus Williams, Morris Almond, and Rodney Stuckey.
Ramon Sessions -- Unlikely to be drafted. Sessions may benefit as a result of a relatively weak point guard class. The point guard has plenty of ground to make up including a list not limited to the aforementioned Conley Jr., Acie Law IV, Aaron Brooks, Taurean Green, Bobby Brown, Dominic James (if he declares), and a number of international prospects.

Top College Basketball Recruiting Classes for 2007

Tonight marks the culmination of events that began in mid-October when teams began practicing with one goal in mind: win the national championship. For Florida or Ohio State, it will become a reality. For everyone else, they can look forward to next year and the fruits of their seemingly ceaseless recruiting pitches.

Data from Rivals.com

1. Kansas St.
***** Michael Beasley, PF, 6-9 235 (1)
***** Bill Walker, SF, 6-6 220 (7)
*** Dominique Sutton, SF, 6-4 195 (97)
*** Fred Brown, SG, 6-3 185
*** Jacob Pullen, PG, 6-1 175

Next year, Kansas State will not be in the discussion as a bubble team, because they’ll have top recruit Michael Beasley playing the 4 for them. Bill Walker should be able to return from injury and the Wildcats should return most of its players. Not to mention, Bill Huggins will have another year to mold his players to his likening.

2. Syracuse Orange
***** Donte Green, SF, 6-9 217 (10)
***** Johnny Flynn, PG, 5-11 170 (22)
**** Antonio Jardine, SG, 6-1 180 (57)
**** Rick Jackson, PF, 6-8 235 (95)
*** Sean Williams, C, 6-11 220

The Orange reloads at every position, with Flynn and Green leading the recruiting class. Syracuse will need leadership at the guard and forward, as they lose crucial starters in both areas. The maturation process of Paul Harris may play a big role in determining how far these Orange may go next season.

3. USC Trojans
***** OJ Mayo, PG, 6-5 215 (6)
***** Davon Jefferson, SF, 6-7 190 (15 – class of 2006)
*** Leonard Washington, SF, 6-6 225 (108)
*** Venoy Overton, PG, 6-0 165
*** Marcus Simmons, SF, 6-4 175

USC was 10 minutes and a couple of fresh bodies away from upending #1 seed North Carolina in the East region. Next year, that excuse won’t apply, as the Trojans have reloaded with speed and skill. Note to Tim Floyd: Keep OJ Mayo on the court and out of trouble.

4. Arizona Wildcats
***** Jerryd Bayless, SG, 6-3 193 (9)
***** Jamelle Horne, SF, 6-7 205 (19)
*** Laval Lucas-Perry, PG, 6-1 191 (128)
*** Zane Johnson, SF, 6-6 200 (132)
*** Alex Jacobson, C, 7-1 223

Lute Olsen is just dying for leadership. He didn’t get it with Mustapha Shakur and he’s hoping that Bayless is more than a one-and-done player. Horne will immediately step into the Marcus Williams role, who’s more than likely NBA-bound. With that said, will Jacobson fill the shoes of Ivan Radenovic, who was by far, the most consistent player on last year’s underachieving roster.

5. Florida Gators
***** Nick Calathes, PG, 6-5 185 (13)
**** Chandler Parsons, SF, 6-8 190 (21)
**** Alex Tyus, PF, 6-8 210 (47)
**** Adam Allen, SF, 6-6 185 (68)

With this recruiting class, you can expect a mass exodus from the Florida player ranks. If Billy Donovan jettisons for Lexington, you can expect at least a couple of de-commits to occur. Meanwhile, the Gators are still chasing 5-star big man Patrick Patterson. Should the Gators land Patterson, they’ll have to be considered a top 3 recruiting class.

ON THE PERIPHERY

Ohio State: It should be no shock to anyone that Thad Matta can recruit. Knowing Greg Oden is very likely to ascend to the NBA ranks this summer, Matta signed Kosta Koufos, a 7-footer with skill who is a 5-star recruit. Matta signed four other young men, all of whom can fight for minutes upon arrival in Columbus.

Purdue: Knowing that his squad lacks size, Matt Painter signed four versatile 4-star recruits, three of which are 6’8” and taller.

Duke: Coach K must’ve known that his team would have scoring problems this season, because he’s snapped up Kyle Singler, who’s considered the most complete recruit entering college basketball next season. After a year’s hiatus, Duke gets a commit from the nation’s top white player. Taylor King can light it up from deep and Nolan Smith provides some badly-needed ball-handling skills.

Indiana: No matter how he got him (google "Gregg Doyel" + "Kelvin Sampson" + "Gordon" and you're golden), Kelvin Sampson landed Eric Gordon, the nation’s #2 recruit according to Rivals. Gordon should make sure that Indiana scores more than 13 points in a half versus UCLA. Sampson also signed imposing center Eli Holman, Jordan Crawford (PG), Jamarcus Ellis (JUCO-SG), and Brandon McGee. Can the talent get Sampson back into the Sweet 16 for the first time in what seems like forever?

The Ultimate National Championship Preview: Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
by Chris Clement

To be honest, I’m not very excited about tonight’s national title game. Sure the “fan” in me wants to be pumped (reminding myself that this is far from a shoe-in victory for the defending champion Gators). Ironically enough, such a point was vastly proven by the same two schools, just different squads, a little over three months ago (when the Gators football team decimated the seemingly outgunned, outhustled and overrated Buckeyes). Unfortunately, that game was a stinker after the first two possessions and this one may follow a similar suit.

So below, I’m going to mark down a couple thoughts, a little analysis, a prediction or two, and perhaps, something that doesn’t resemble soft whimpering and gentle crying…all for you.

We’ll call it my five keys for a good game…or an eventual blow-out.

Oden’s Fouls

It’s too bad we can’t give Greg Oden ten fouls. Perhaps, Al Horford could be called for an offensive foul once or twice as he backs down people like a lumberjack tackling a redwood. Ditto for Noah and his phantom pivot feet and the lack of any traveling calls against them. One could say the same for Conley Jr., often neglected for being punished for constantly palming the ball (then again, who doesn’t these days?) or Jamar Butler’s often wild and erratic reaches on defense. Either way, Greg Oden can’t get into foul trouble on Monday Night. He might be able to pick up that second foul in the first half, but it had better be in the closing minutes when he needs to rest. With Noah/Horford/Richard out there, Thad Matta can’t survive long with guys like Hunter and Terwilliger trying to man-up against the Gator big men.

Can Oden stay out of foul trouble and be effective against the Gators' frontline?
Courtesy: Celebopedia

Guard Play

Taurean Green is the heart and soul of this Gator championship squad. If you disagree, then I doubt your validity as a college expert. While the big men and Corey Brewer get all the accolades and Lee Humphrey is destroying nets around the country, when Green is on, the Gators are great. Whether its dishing out assists in traffic, hitting key threes as teams attempt rallies against his Gators, or stifling defense in the half-court trap, Green makes these Gators go. Mike Conley Jr. will be a much better pro, but he will see everything a point guard should mean to his team on Monday Night. Talk to William Avery about what Khalid El-Amin showed him back in '99. No, it wasn’t paternity suits, but calculated and team-oriented guard play. As for the other Buckeyes, Jamar Butler must continue consistent inside/outside play and be prepared to run himself ragged on Monday night. Lee Humphrey isn’t very athletic, so there is a chance to keep an eye on him. But even a brief hesitation, and the ball is suddenly through the net. Be physical with him and get him thinking about a few early misses…and he becomes a different player. He won’t put the ball on the floor nearly as often as he should. While Green struggled despite a Gator victory, the same was true – much more surprisingly – for Buckeye 5^th-year senior Ron Lewis. Let me make no beefs about it: Ron Lewis cannot struggle on Monday night. No chance.

Green: Must re-establish form that got Gators to Atlanta
Courtesy: Rivals.com

Coaching

I try not to publicize them about too much, but Donovan was as savvy a coach as the Final Four had to offer (3-0 in national semifinal). He has his team in the perfect mindset. They know they are the best team on the floor and their task is to remind you of that each and every time. These guys know how important repeating sounds. What’s more important is winning the championship this year. As for the Buckeyes, Matta has gotten every last inch out of a young, talented team. While he can’t teach Oden in less than 48 hours how to avoid foul trouble, we will see how effectively he can work the refs by balancing calls made – or not made – on the bigs of both teams. That alone may decide his team’s fate more than their play.

Is a repeat in the cards? Is Billy D off to Lexington?
Courtesy: CBS4, Viacom

December 23^rd, 2006

It doesn’t matter. Sure, Florida decimated the youthful Buckeyes 86-60 in Gainesville. But neither team will turn to that tape anytime soon. Horford played – when every media report said he was out (typical) – and Oden has barely walked on the court by that point. The Buckeyes are much more confident and a more grounded team. The scariest thing though is this - Florida is better. Much better. The Gators don’t go deep, but they’re deeper now than they were then. Either way, even if Florida spanks the Buckeyes on Monday night, it won’t be because of December 23^rd, 2006.

Conley Jr.: Has gotten just a bit better since December 23
Courtesy: Indianapolis Star

X-Factors

Something unexpected usually needs to go right for a team – or wrong for their opponent – when a national title is delivered. As a 'Cuse fan, Kueth Duany’s early double-digits were an unwelcomed sign that aided us to an early 18-point lead. The same could be said for the play of Anderson Hunt, 29 points in the ’90 title win, that led to his Final Four MOP award for the Runnin’ Rebs of UNLV. Ditto for Mike Dunleavy’s 21 points in their 2001 title-victory over Arizona and so on and so forth. All of these guys were talented – some more than others, of course – yet all of them made unexpected impacts. Who could these new people be tonight? I’m not going to try and guess. Except for mentioning one name, David Lighty of Ohio State.

Alright, that’s all I got. I’m hoping for a good game…but not crossing my fingers. I’ll say Florida by a dozen-or-so right now, while rooting heavily for the Buckeyes to return the upset to the Gators side.

If Florida does win, that’d be both collegiate championships that really matter to most – basketball and football – and the first back-to-back titles since Duke (which would be a blessing in itself to push aside).

Either way, I'm hopeful that it’ll be more fun than it appears it’ll be.

I’ll throw out some reactions on Tuesday one way or another…so until then.

Final Four Previews
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi

National Semifinal #1
The Ultimate Preview: #1. Ohio State vs. #2. Georgetown

The first national semifinal of the night has Thad Matta’s youthful and extremely athletic Buckeyes matched up against John Thompson III’s disciplined and chiseled Hoyas. It’s the type of matchup that any college basketball fan should be truly excited about. Why? Let’s take a deeper look into the Four Factors that make this a game that a can’t-miss matchup.

Stories
Georgetown is just 25 years removed from Fred Brown’s errant pass to James Worthy in the closing seconds of the ’82 title game. The Buckeyes, despite an appearance in ’99, haven’t been in a National Title game since 1968. Add to that who is coaching, John Thompson’s son, and that a Ewing, Patrick Ewing Jr., is on the court for Georgetown. The last-second shot against Vandy, with more than a little controversy attached to it, was perhaps the talk of last weekend’s games. That was the case until their 10-point comeback in the final seven minutes against the East’s top-seed, the North Carolina Tar Heels. The return to dominance, in only three short years under Thompson III, is a thing to behold out of Georgetown this season. As for the Buckeyes, they brought in the most hyped freshman in years [Greg Oden], and for the most part, delivered time and time again as a team. Their amazing comeback against Xavier, thanks in large part to the clutch shooting of Ron Lewis, was followed up by exciting games against Tennessee (included both a 20-point comeback and a last-second Oden block) and a nailbiter, of sorts, against a brash, hungry Memphis squad. Both teams earned their tickets to Atlanta and both teams, at least in the back of their minds, have to be thinking about cutting down another net before they leave.

Superstars
Every game needs high-profile names, like it or not. Georgetown might have a Thompson on the bench and a Ewing on the court, but it’s all about Roy Hibbert and Big East Player of the Year Jeff Green. At 7-2, Hibbert is the latest Hoya big-man to talk about. His footwork has improved mightily over his college career and he often poses an indomitable force on the inside block, both offensively and defensively. Watching him play inside, with four fouls, against the Heels frontline last week was a thing of beauty. As for Green, his inside-outside game is among the best in the entire country. Walking violation or not, his play to beat Vandy in the closing seconds was one of pure strength and skill. He can beat you from the outside or put the ball on the court and create his own high percentage shot. Don’t underestimate what that takes on the college level. As for the Buckeyes, Greg Oden is a man among men, even at 19 years old. The 1^st-team All American has avoided stints of foul trouble to make big plays on both sides of the court. Ironically, he may pose an even bigger threat when he’s off the court, as teams often panic to find the best possible offensive scheme to take advantage of the shot-blocker’s absence. Alongside him are plenty of talented players, but none more than high-school teammate and freshman point guard Mike Conley Jr. Not the best shooter on the team, Conley Jr. is one of the nation’s most balanced, quickest, and poised backcourt penetraters. His vision is spectacular and he always seems to rise to the occasion, often as a calming influence, when his team needs him the most.

Winning Streaks
The Big Ten conference and post-season champion Ohio State Buckeyes haven’t lost since a January 9^th visit to Wisconsin, 21-in-a-row win in fact, which included two wins over Wisconsin, two wins over Tennessee, beating Memphis, and slew of other tough conference opponents. Idle number or not, 21-wins is an impressive feat for the overall #1 team in the country. They’ve avoided several near disasters and are only stronger because of it. As for Georgetown, the Big East conference and post-season champions, have won 19 of 20 [only stumble being a 14 point loss at Syracuse, which sure does look good right now for the Orange, thank you] which included that comeback win against North Carolina (in which Thompson III never panicked), two wins against Pitt, and several other notable victories. Both of these teams are playing the best basketball of their seasons just at the right time. Neither of these coaches need to remind these guys the importance of sticking to their game plan and playing within themselves. Teams who win this much already have that luxury.

X-Factors
You might be surprised to hear this, but Ohio State can win without Greg Oden dominating. Georgetown has also survived with Hibbert being in foul trouble throughout big games. Not surprisingly, both big men could spend heavy minutes nursing foul trouble this game. So it’s no surprise Georgetown would look to their top player, Jeff Green, to anchor them. And he most likely will. Ditto with Ohio State, turning to their primary ballhandler Mike Conley Jr., for aid and leadership. And he most likely will deliver. Yet, it is the true role players who will decide this game. For the Buckeyes, that means that Ron Lewis needs to stroke more than a couple idle threes from behind the arc. This task is gonna be a mighty challenge when you consider Georgetown has held Vandy/UNC to 14 of 48 from behind the 3-point line in their last two contests. Jamar Butler, on a scoring rampage as of late, is going to have to hit open shots and get to the line early and often. That’ll be tough mainly due to the suffocating Georgetown defense, experts at keeping such players outside of the lane. Daequan Cook will have to often pass up deep shots that aren’t high percentage; instead, kicking it out and looking to find teammates for better opportunities. It’ll be interesting to see if it’s just too tempting to pass up rare outside opportunities, even from 23+-feet, for the hybrid-shooter. Things aren’t much easier for the Hoya role players easier. Jonathan Wallace and DaJuan Summers have enjoyed mostly-stellar shooting this tournament, but have shown a tendency at times to go cold during the season. Jessie Sapp will certainly have a size advantage over the Buckeye PGs, but will his lack of true speed come to hurt him in late stretches? Patrick Ewing Jr. has improved his play steadily throughout the year, but is he ready to do all the little things – which may include hardly ever taking a shot – on the stage his father once dominated three times in a stellar career? A lot to think about for coaches Matta and Thompson III this weekend.

In the end, I’m ecstatic for tip-off to begin. I would enjoy seeing both teams win and just want one heck of a game. Predictions can wait until Monday night. Tonight’s just about having fun. But I do have one thing to look for…

Ohio State will win if…it shoots better than 35% behind the 3-point line.

Georgetown will win if…Roy Hibbert posts a double-double in 30+-minutes of play.

Now onto the night’s second national semi-final.

National Semifinal #2
The Ultimate Preview: #1. Florida vs. #2. UCLA

In the second national semifinal, we'll have a rematch of last year's championship game. A year later, Ben Howland has officially brought UCLA back to the powerhouse ranks and Billy Donovan has three Final Four appearances and a National Championship before the age of 42. A year removed from the national title, Billy Donovan is fighting off rumors about returning to Kentucky as a head coach, where he was an assistant for Rick Pitino during their glory years in the mid-1990s. Either way, he's cashing in come next week guaranteed.

Stories
Last season, Florida's shocking championship run culminated a full-scale beatdown of storied program UCLA, 73-57. In that game, Joakim Noah and Al Horford posterized Ryan Hollins and whomever else the Bruins decided to put down all night in the blocks. Corey Brewer never let Arron Afflalo out of his sight and Jordan Farmar was deemed useless. When UCLA shot the ball, they were one-and-done.

This year, UCLA is a stronger offensive, but questions remain about their ability to score points regularly. Josh Shipp has taken up a portion of the scoring load while Darren Collison continues to be a very efficient scorer. However, his 7 turnover/1 assist game last Saturday should be something to forget about moving forward. Unlike last year's run to the Final Four, Florida has had the target on their chest all season, but this has not gotten in the way of their courage and resolve.

Superstars
For Florida, one immediately thinks of the three guys who would have been drafted as lottery picks last year - Noah, Horford, and Brewer. Nevertheless, the catalyst for the Gators is none other than Taurean Green, who has been Florida's leading scorer in the NCAA Tournament. He's also rescued the Gators out of some binds, as they trailed in the second half against both Purdue and Butler. The point guard was crucial to both comebacks and eventual slayings of the Hoosier-state upstarts. Don't get me wrong, he'll do his best to include Noah and Horford early and often in order to exploit an obvious mismatch in the paint.

The Bruins feature AP All-America first team selection Arron Afflalo, who finally had *that* game against Kansas. Afflalo scored 24 points on 10-for-15 shooting from the field, including three from behind the arc. Also, the Bruins have the aforementioned Collison, who is undersized, but one of the best perimeter defenders in the nation. He will drive, penetrate, and look to dish to the big men, but he's not afraid to get fouled. More importantly, Collison won't be afraid to take the big shots from 3-point range (46.3%). His dagger heave from behind the arc proved costly in the win over Kansas, and Bill Self will have nightmares for years on end.

X-Factors
Can UCLA force turnovers and turn them into points?
UCLA has proven throughout the season and during the tournament that when they can force turnovers, they will turn them into points. Kansas was made a national example last Saturday. Let's not forget the flipside of this argument. UCLA committed 24 turnovers last Saturday. If that's the case, then Florida will be game-planning for Monday with a half left to play. As for Florida, they kept Oregon in the game on Sunday by committing a bevy of careless turnovers. UCLA needs to turn Florida over early and often.

Florida
v. Purdue 15 turnovers
v. Butler 11 turnovers
v. Oregon 18 turnovers

Three pointers?
Florida from behind the arc
v. Purdue 5-18
v. Butler 8-19
v. Oregon 11-24

If Taurean Green begins to hit threes like he did in the Butler and Oregon games, UCLA has very little room for error. Meanwhile, Lee Humphrey is back to his old self, hitting 7 threes against in the regional final. For UCLA, they'll need Shipp and Roll to hit open shots in order to take pressure off of Collison and Afflalo, who will have their hands full. It should be noted though that Florida's increasing reliance on the deep ball may be their Achilles' Heel because UCLA is a better rebounding team than their size indicates.

UCLA production on the frontline
The real media is hyping Noah and Horford, and you can't really blame them. I watched last year's championship game and they seemed to dunk on every other possession. This year, they're not as dominant, but both are very good, especially Horford down the stretch. I would argue though that UCLA's frontline is stronger defensively than last year; moreover, they know their role. 4 guys (Mata, Mbah a Moute, Aboya, Keefe) with 20 fouls - provide help-side defense, rebound, box out, and be in position to attack the rim off of dribble penetration. There is no equivocation whatsoever.

Point Guard Leadership
If Florida wins the national championship on Monday night, look no further than the point guard. Brewer's been off, Humphrey was off until the regional final, Noah's been ordinary, and the bench has been non-existent. Green has hit the streak three-pointers and settled down the Gators whenever the opposition has gone on runs.

UCLA will win if... they cause 20 turnovers and hit open shots in the second half

Florida will win if... they stick to their guns and limit UCLA to one shot on every possession

NCAA Tournament Performance (by conference) - From 16 to 4

**Before I get into the meat of this post, I found this glorious clip on YouTube. All Madden ’92 lovers will have nostalgia tingling down their spine. Check it out.**

In the first weekend, the chalk held for the most part. In the second weekend, the chalk held almost entirely. The only exceptions were not even upsets with UCLA defeating Kansas (in California, mind you) and Georgetown upending North Carolina in overtime. With regard to UCLA’s win in California, I think they would’ve won on any court on Saturday night, save Phog Allen. The stronger in-game tacticians won in both of those games.

Conference (in order by RPI rank)	Actual Record	Exp. Record	Actual vs. Exp. Diff.	Sweet 16 teams	Elite 8 Teams	Final Four Teams
ACC	7-7	11-6	-2.5	1	1	0
SEC	9-4	7-4	+1.0	3	1	1
Pac-10	10-5	9-6	+1.0	3	2	1
Big Ten	8-5	8-5	0.0	1	1	1
Big East	7-5	8-6	0.0*	2	1	1
Missouri Valley	2-2	2-2	0	1	0	0
Big XII	6-4	8-3	-1.5	2	1	0
Mountain West	2-2	2-2	0.0	1	0	0
Western Athletic	1-2	1-2	0	0	0	0
Atlantic-10	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0
Horizon	2-2	1-2	+0.5	1	0	0
Colonial	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0

* higher winning percentage for actual record

The chart above demonstrates the poor performance by the ACC relative to their regular season accolades. To send the most teams (7) and only send one to the Sweet 16 is weak. This marks the second straight year in which the ACC had a 1-seed that failed to make it to the Final Four.

For the second straight year, the SEC outperforms its expectations, but not quite like last year. Had Vanderbilt and Tennessee won games that they should have, that would’ve meant that half of the SEC East was in the Elite 8. That’s crazy good. Does it beg the question of including Georgia over Arkansas? Not at all. Georgia wasn’t the same team after losing one of its leading scorers.

The story though should be the Pac-10, who was the only to send two teams to the Elite 8. Given the season previews from real media outlets that have access to first-hand information, I expected 3-4 bids this season. They’re also the perennial doormat during the NCAA tournament and a constant focus of criticism whenever a representative (usually Stanford) falls as a 1-seed during the first weekend. In a 10-team league, five teams were no-doubters and only one came into question (Stanford) when it came to Selection Sunday. UCLA and Oregon took care of business while USC was 1-2 contributors away from fending off Carolina in the round of 16.

As for the Final 4, I had Texas A&M instead of Ohio State, so I’d like to thank Memphis for playing its best game in two years in the Sweet 16 matchup. I’m obligated to picking Georgetown versus Florida, because that’s what I had in my bracket.

Given the circumstances, I can see UCLA defeat Florida, because the Gators have needed excellent long distance shooting to get where they are right now. Florida has had a lot of unforced errors on offense. If the Bruins stick to their guns and play stellar perimeter defense, annoy the big men, and score points, then I like their chances of playing on Monday.

With little margin for error, the Ohio State/Georgetown game is a pick’em. I’ve characterized the Buckeyes as lucky all tournament long, but they’re obviously talented, well-coached and don’t give up when they’re down. They also just played their most complete offensive game of the season. Let’s just say that it won’t be a repeat performance. Who will stop Jeff Green? Is Cook, Hunter, or Lighty up to the challenge? At this point, Jeff Green may be the most lethal player in the tournament because of his ability to affect games in so many different ways, even when he’s not scoring points.