NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

2008 NCAA Projections - March 12, 2008

Last night, the committee arrived in Indianapolis. Tomorrow, they will submit their list of “lock teams”. As of the end of play on Tuesday night, we estimate that the teams listed in seed lines #1-7 are considered to be “locks” for the NCAA Tournament. While I love what Kentucky has done, they are truly one injury away from being on the outside looking in despite an impressive 12-4 record in the SEC and having crushed the subjective eye test since the Vanderbilt debacle.

That leaves 18 bids for the taking. What does that mean? In brief, the next four days of basketball will go a long way in determining who is in and out (Sunday is not a big moving day for tournament seedings, unless your name is Joe Lunardi and the clock has just struck 5:50pm ET). In other words, no team beyond Mississippi State excluding automatic bids are safe.

Here are Paymon’s early thoughts …

• If teams are considered by team and not WCC #3, it will be hard to unseat St. Mary’s.
• Davidson deserves a massive jump in the seedings because they took care of business. Because some bubble teams will win unexpectedly, they will likely become a #10 seed.
• The fate of VCU and South Alabama from here on out may be determined by their opponents who have games yet to play. The decider is multifactorial. First, VCU won its conference by 3 games. Second, they won three neutral/away games in non-conference play.
• I’m having a difficult time understanding why Arizona State is out of Joe Lunardi’s bracket. They earned the #5 seed in the nation’s best conference; a conference which uses a round-robin scheduling mechanism. In doing so, they defeated the conference’s #2, #4, #6 and #7 (sweep) teams in addition to the A-14’s #1 team. In a field with such a dearth of good wins, the Sun Devils don’t have enough bad losses to counteract their good wins.
• If Florida and Ole Miss BOTH make the SEC semifinals, it will be a play-in/elimination game.
• While results are important, scorelines on the neutral court play a role as well. If a team such as Ohio State loses badly against Michigan State, then their recent home resume-padders are diluted. This may result in an invitation to the Not Important Tournament.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, which is highlighted by over ten hours of opening round coverage of the Big East Tournament, Clement tackles four games that are on his mind. To no one’s surprise who reads this blog religiously, we start with …

1) Big East Tournament: Syracuse vs. Villanova
-Far from fans of South Alabama and Gonzaga after Monday Night, the Orange and the Wildcats both sit at 9-9 in the Big East. Both own a win on the other’s homecourt, both have underachieved quite a bit this season and both are in just about every media pundits “last four out”. This game obviously appears to be an elimination game. The loser stands little to no chance of securing anything but a 2-seed in the NIT. In fact, the winner may simply be the Big East team first left out. A win over Georgetown would be vital for either to stake a truly legitimate claim. The problem is: if all these at-large bids keep closing up, is a semi-final appearance truly enough for either Big East .500 squad?

2) Big East Tournament Opening Round: West Virginia vs. Providence
-A home win against Pitt this past week almost assuredly locked the Mountaineers into the last “safe bid” in the Big East. Right? Not so fast, especially when you consider how strong the media has been pushing them onto the bubble and their somewhat hidden #5 seed in the Big East Tournament. Not to mention that 10+-win in the Big East is nice, but not as nice considering they now play an 18 game schedule (thank you, Doug Gottlieb). Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. If WVU loses, and perhaps Syracuse, Villanova or a surprise team makes a Big East run, could WVU be entrenched in bubble fever come 6pm on Sunday night? My inside sources tell me yes (thank you, Peter Vecsey).

3) Pac-10 Tournament Opening Round: Arizona vs. Oregon State
-Typically, there wouldn’t be any consideration given to a team as terrible as the Beavers this season. However, with their loss to Oregon this past Saturday night, #2 SOS Wildcats (come on, that’s their motto these days), opened the door for potentially two Pac-10 teams with losing conference records getting in (it’s never happened to one Pac-10 team before). The one thing Arizona can do to help itself most is crush OSU and take out the “are-they-struggling” Cardinal. The worst: lose to Oregon State and any SOS may have to go straight out the window.

4) A-10 Tournament Opening Round: Charlotte vs. Rhode Island
-In A-10 play, Xavier is easily a sure-fire tournament team. However, the rest of the conference appears much murkier than it did only six weeks ago. In fact, this matchup of #6 Charlotte vs. #11 Rhode Island may lead to an interesting quarterfinal matchup against #3 UMass. The Minutemen appear the safest bet to acquire an at-large bid, for now. In truth, eyes will be focused intently on potential upsets that could prevent a tricky A-10 final four: Xavier/St. Joe’s & UMass/Temple could. A nightmarish scenario unfolds if Dayton upsets top-seed Xavier in the quarterfinals. Don’t even get me started on that…

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon)
6: Washington State, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Marquette
7: Clemson, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, BYU, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL
9: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Davidson (Southern), Arkansas
10: Baylor, Arizona, UNLV (MWC), St. Mary’s
11: Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia, Illinois State
12: Ohio State, Temple, VCU, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), San Diego (WCC), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Illinois State, Ohio State, Temple, VCU
Last Four Out: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, UMass
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Dayton, UAB, Ole Miss
On The Radar: Maryland, New Mexico, Florida

IN: Western Kentucky, San Diego, VCU
OUT: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 5/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Colonial: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

Bracket Chatter - All About the Bubble

Work calleth for much of the day …

If your team is or was on the bubble, you’re likely taking a mental health day or you feel an ulcer coming on. Either way, my lack of internet connectivity from last night pales in comparison to what you are experiencing.

Here is one question to consider:

What’s more valuable: Winning a conference by three games (Conference RPI: 13) and defeating Houston/Akron/Maryland on a floor other than your home floor or winning your conference on a tie-breaker (Conference RPI: 15) and having your key wins versus Mississippi State and Western Kentucky (twice)? For those just joining us, I’m talking about VCU and South Alabama.

In terms of bad losses, VCU lost @ JMU when they were a RPI top 100 squad, lost to ODU at home on a blown no-call (though I argue they deserve to lose for letting it come to that), and William & Mary in the conference tournament on a neutral court. A common misnomer is that VCU plays at the Richmond Coliseum, site of the CAA tournament. In reality, they play at the Siegel Center. That's an enormous difference considering how well some teams travel, namely UNC-W and now George Mason. The Hampton loss is not forgivable but the loss was in November.

As for South Alabama, they lost at North Texas and dropped two of three against Middle Tennessee State.

Oddly enough, the fates of VCU and South Alabama may be decided by the likes of Houston, Maryland, Akron, Ole Miss, Miami-Ohio, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.

Other talking points
- On George Mason, I was among the final bracket projectionists to switch from Mason to VCU. Even when I begrudgingly ceded the automatic bid to VCU, I knew that if Mason ever decided to play defense, they would win the CAA Tournament. Despite not shooting well from behind the arc for much of their time in Richmond, the Patriots challenged nearly every shot. For the anonymous hater on CAA: LAMM, who, for lack of better words, hated on my lamenting about Mason's love affair with the trifecta, inability to box out or cover the perimeter during the regular season ... thank you. Not only was I dead on, but my alma mater rectified those shortcomings when it mattered most.

- I hate conferences that hold tournaments on the home floor of a team who is not the #1 seed. In essence, it begs teams who would otherwise not make the tournament to do so and party like rock stars on their home floors after winning it all. Yes, I’m talking about you, West Coast Conference. For the record, I am not married to three coming out of that conference, so beware St. Mary’s. The Gaels have a strong resume (RPI: 38) with a solid SOS incorporated into that rating and wins at home versus Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, San Diego and Gonzaga. Neutral-court triumphs over San Diego State and Ohio may push them over the top if both perform well in their conference tournaments. If you couple losing three of your final five games with the lack of precedence in having three teams from the 14th-best conference (let alone two), then St. Mary’s may be on the outside looking in.

- Who is the Valley #2? Convenience suggests that it’s Illinois State, who won 15 conference games counting the tournament in the nation’s #8 conference. Of course, that is before you factor in their 0-5 record against the Top 50, three losses of which are against Drake. On the flipside, they are 5-0 against squads rated between 51 and 100. Long-forgotten SIU, who let many down, has four wins against the Top 50, but are 17-14 overall, had four less conference victories in the MVC which has balanced scheduling. There’s also Creighton, who boasts a meager 0-6 clip against the Top 50, also losing thrice to Drake.

- Though I very much dislike the transitive property (i.e. Digger's MO), I see it playing a larger role than either Clement or myself would have liked.