Sunday, December 27, 2009

Using Adjusted Efficiency Numbers to Know Who's Playing Late in March

Over the last four years, teams that have ranked in the top 16 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (according to Ken Pomeroy) have been tremendously successful in the month of March. Rather than serve as a poll, AOE and ADE ratings can describe whether a team plays hard and smart for 40 minutes, or makes just enough plays to get victories. As you will see below, the last four national champions have satisfied the ranking requirement, and this year's two frontrunners (Kansas and Texas) make the grade as well.

While the ratings do not guarantee success in March, 12 of the 15 teams in the last four years who have ranked in the top 16 in both categories have made at least the Elite 8. Furthermore, the lowest seed among the teams is a #3 seed.

Florida - National Champion
Texas - Elite Eight
UConn - Elite Eight
Duke - Sweet 16

Florida - National Champion
Ohio State - National Runner-Up
North Carolina - Elite Eight
Texas A&M -Sweet 16

Kansas - National Champion
Memphis - National Runner-Up
UCLA - Final Four
Duke - 2nd Round

North Carolina - National Champion
UConn - Final Four
Missouri - Elite Eight

Looking Forward to March 2010

As of games ending Saturday, the four teams who meet the AOE and ADE requirement are Texas, Duke, Kansas and Syracuse. Does this guarantee that they will all be at the Final Four? Absolutely not. While Duke and Syracuse have performed well to date, Duke peaks too early on a perennial basis, and (because of Jim Boeheim's lean towards a seven-man rotation) Syracuse is always an injury away from Big East obscurity. Additionally, Duke has twice met the AOE and ADE requirement and underachieved twice.

2010 (as of 12/26/09)

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

InClement Weather: Season's Greetings

It's been WAAAAAY to long since I've shown my face (so to speak) via this blog...and I'm not making any apologies.

Instead, I'll pretend I never left and leave it at that.

As I type this, I have the Hangover on the TV (via DVD), a Capri Sun (resources are low), and am in the early stages of my 2-week Holiday Break (yes, I do love being a teacher right about now). Doesn't that sound like the perfect opportunity to break radio silence? Doesn't it!?!?!

So here are 5 sports-related thoughts/questions I have as we head into 2010.
And 5 pop-culture(ish) FACTS as well.
Why? Because I'm back bitches!!!!

#1. This is Your NFL Defensive MVP. (Apologies to Charles Woodson, but not Jared Allen or anyone else.)

#2. THIS was the WORST live game I ever attended. In fact, they showed THIS on one of the screens outside the beverage stand. NOT the game.


#3. I liked this move a lot for the Yanks. This one too. This one? Not so much.


#4. I shouldn't have bought this jersey. How long until this one?


#5. Where do you think HE ends up next season? How about him? I have ZERO idea, by the way.


...Pop Culture time...

#6. THIS performance is one of the 5 best of the year. The subtle lines that only you can enjoy on DVD make it even stronger than it was upon first impression.

"Oh, you know what? Next week's no good for me... The Jonas Brothers are in town. But any week after that, it's totally fine."

#7. This is STILL the greatest TV Comedy of all-time. Duh.


#8. Which of these shows was better? Seriously. You tell me. I can't decide! My gut says I should go with...


#9. Is she officially a hottie? I just don't know yet... Of course, there's no debate about HER. (Especially sans Pay-Rod).


#10. Go see this. NOW! NOW! DO IT! NOW! It's far and away the best movie of the year. Maybe of the last 5 years, honestly.


Tigers love pepper... they hate cinnamon.

Sunday, December 06, 2009

PHSports "Pre-Season" Field of 65

So I realize that the season is well underway. Prior to the season starting, I had developed a field of 65, but did not make the time to post it. That time is now (bracket below).

Prior to our next update (late December / early January), we will post early season observations.

1: Kansas, Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky
2: Villanova, Purdue, Duke, West Virginia
3: Tennessee, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma
4: Butler, UConn, Washington, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN: Oregon, Florida, Oregon State, Boston College

LAST FOUR OUT: Pittsburgh, Illinois State, Alabama, UNLV

NEXT FOUR OUT: Seton Hall, Nevada, Old Dominion, Houston