Sunday, December 27, 2009

Using Adjusted Efficiency Numbers to Know Who's Playing Late in March

Over the last four years, teams that have ranked in the top 16 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (according to Ken Pomeroy) have been tremendously successful in the month of March. Rather than serve as a poll, AOE and ADE ratings can describe whether a team plays hard and smart for 40 minutes, or makes just enough plays to get victories. As you will see below, the last four national champions have satisfied the ranking requirement, and this year's two frontrunners (Kansas and Texas) make the grade as well.

While the ratings do not guarantee success in March, 12 of the 15 teams in the last four years who have ranked in the top 16 in both categories have made at least the Elite 8. Furthermore, the lowest seed among the teams is a #3 seed.

Florida - National Champion
Texas - Elite Eight
UConn - Elite Eight
Duke - Sweet 16

Florida - National Champion
Ohio State - National Runner-Up
North Carolina - Elite Eight
Texas A&M -Sweet 16

Kansas - National Champion
Memphis - National Runner-Up
UCLA - Final Four
Duke - 2nd Round

North Carolina - National Champion
UConn - Final Four
Missouri - Elite Eight

Looking Forward to March 2010

As of games ending Saturday, the four teams who meet the AOE and ADE requirement are Texas, Duke, Kansas and Syracuse. Does this guarantee that they will all be at the Final Four? Absolutely not. While Duke and Syracuse have performed well to date, Duke peaks too early on a perennial basis, and (because of Jim Boeheim's lean towards a seven-man rotation) Syracuse is always an injury away from Big East obscurity. Additionally, Duke has twice met the AOE and ADE requirement and underachieved twice.

2010 (as of 12/26/09)

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Among other things, are you trying to say Mike Krzyzewski is a bad coach?