NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style

Last night, Clement went where no man has gone before (except himself) and asked a series of questions pertinent to the NCAA Tournament. Today, I answer them. Is this deja vu? I think so.

Q: "On the Outside Looking In...Sorta"
Who has the best shot at a #1 seed: Memphis or Michigan State? And please, don't tell me neither (even if that's the case).

A: Neither has a realistic chance, but if you put a revolver to my head, I’d go with Michigan State. Memphis has zero chance of a #1 seed, because they have zero signature wins and zero additional opportunities for them. Michigan State has none either, but they have a number of very strong wins and could catapult to a #1 with a lot of help coupled with regular season and conference tournament championships in the Big Ten.

Q: "East Coast Bias"
Which team west of the Mississippi isn't getting enough respect: Washington, Arizona State, or Utah?

A: Actually, I think all of these teams are getting enough respect. Perhaps, many of Utah’s non-conference wins (Wisconsin-Green Bay, Ole Miss, Morgan State, Weber State, LSU, Gonzaga) have gone under the radar but they are respected, since they hold a 2-game lead in the hotly-contested Mountain West with only three to play. I would not be shocked if two of these play into the second weekend of the tournament.

Q: "Bengals from the Bayou"
How has LSU remained under the radar so much? Is SEC basketball that unexciting and uninspiring this season (outside of Mr. Meeks)? Are they a legitimate threat in the tournament?

A: LSU has remained under the radar as a result of their OOC schedule, which ranks 22^nd from the bottom of Division I. Additionally, they play 10 of their conference games in the frail SEC West (enough said). That said, they are starting to gain respect with every victory (4-0) against the sturdier SEC East. While LSU has performed admirably as we reach March, I do not see the Tigers outplaying their seed.

Q: "Hurricane Season???"
Which team is more likely to have a costly hiccup in their remaining games: Miami (Fl) or South Carolina?
A: Sadly, Miami is more likely to have that hiccup, despite being the more potent team in my opinion. South Carolina (9-4 in conference) has a realistic chance at 11 wins in conference with a visit from Rocky Top sandwiched between trips to Nashville and Athens. It’s no secret that the Hurricanes are battered and bruised, but they have started to play well in the clutch, and if they win at Georgia Tech and defeat NC State at home, then they are 8-8 in the nation’s top-ranked conference. That may keep them in the Last Four In, but we have seen that bids may be stolen in even the power conferences (e.g. Georgia).

Q: "(Mid) Major Dilemma!"
What's the (updated) prognoses on teams like Utah State, Creighton, and Siena, assuming neither of the three wins their conference tournament?

A: If Utah State does not win their conference tournament, then they should be prepared for a high NIT seed. If Creighton and Siena win the rest of their regular season games and lose in the final to the next best team, then they both should be in. Of course, a lot of this depends on other variables (i.e. teams other than Butler and Gonzaga winning their conference tournaments).

Question #6: "50/50"
Pick an ACC and a Big Ten team - out of each pairing - who you favor as being more likely to secure an at-large birth: Big Ten (Penn State or Michigan) & ACC (Virginia Tech or Maryland).

In the Big Ten, I’d give the nod to Penn State, as they have defeated the 1^st and 3^rd best team in their conference on the road. In the ACC, I would select Virginia Tech by a very slim margin based on the same rationale. That said, much can change at the conference tournament.

***Bonus Question***
What did you answer for the poll (Chalmber is Chalmers, btw...thanks Clement) and why? Just a sentence or two will do.

A: This is a great question, because I was only able to eliminate three players (Chalmers, Brewer, Noah) from this list due to the composite strength of their respective teams. I went with Juan Dixon, because fans forget exactly how dominant he was in the final two minutes of a game. Any time that Maryland needed a play to either lead a spurt or to kill a crowd, Juan Dixon did it.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 9, 2009

For the third straight set of projections, UConn tops the charts. This pick was solidified by exemplary defense as well as two subtractions from the UNC roster (Marcus Ginyard ruled out by injury and Will Graves suspended for reasons that Roy Williams decided not to elaborate).

Though they have only one loss (to Arkansas), Oklahoma remains on the 2-line. Due to a matchup conflict, I placed them in the 6^th overall spot, though we project them to be higher than Louisville, who greeted February with a setback on Monday and an uninspiring performance on Sunday.

In terms of whose stock rose, look no further than the Tigers of Memphis and Missouri.

* I expected Memphis to be competitive against Gonzaga, but I did not expect to punish and demoralize the Bulldogs. John Calipari's management of Tyreke Evans - who came in with a selfish tag and is suddenly one of the best floor generals in the country since his move to the point – is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration on its face.

* As for Missouri, they are living up to their gaudy eye test metrics (top 25 national rating in offensive and defensive efficiency). Because they are now the 3^rd team in the Big XII, they will be the hunted and will not catch teams off guard.

Meanwhile, stock is plummeting in Austin, Lafayette, Las Vegas and State College.

* On the heels of three consecutive conference losses to teams not named Oklahoma or Kansas, Texas is in the midst of an identity crisis and it is due in part to being banged up and not having an NBA-caliber point guard in the backcourt. However, this is why Rick Barnes gets paid the big bucks. He will have this team turned around, though it may not be immediate.

* While I do not think Robbie Hummel is the best player for the Boilermakers, his absence has been felt in two losses this week. If he remains out, expect more of the same. The beneficiaries of this loss will no doubt be Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota, who are all battling for a 'protected' seed (i.e. 4 seed or better).

* UNLV is playing awful. When you lose close games, the finger will undoubtedly be in the direction of either the best player or the point guard. In this case, it's the same player. Yeah, I'm calling you out Wink Adams. Another week like this and my stretch of a Mountain West championship becomes no more. Utah is starting to normalize.

* As highlighted by other folks, in a week that Penn State needed a split, the Nittany Lions came out empty-handed and they have three halves of utter futility to thank for it. After winning unexpectedly in East Lansing, Penn State tanked against fellow bubble teams with back-to-back double-digit losses. That's toxic for a resume and I cannot emphasize that enough.

Moving down to the last four in, I went in with the notion that I am choosing the best 34 at-large teams. Miami-FL may finish 7-9 in the ACC and may garner serious at-large consideration, especially if Kentucky (who they defeated at Rupp Arena) rights the ship and Ohio State (who they would have beaten had Jack McClinton not been wrongfully ejected) continues to play well. In the end, it came down to Arizona and Kansas State. While I think that it is slightly irresponsible to have six from the PAC 10, Arizona has a better resume than Kansas State.

On a final note, Georgetown, who was a protected seed, is out of the field. The tipping point was an overtime loss against Cincinnati, which I happened to attend. If the Hoyas can go 8-10 in the Big East given their tougher than average schedule with a semifinal run at Madison Square Garden, they carry a strong argument for an at-large bid. At this point, however, it is unrealistic to see Georgetown win four of their last seven and win at least two at MSG.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)

2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest

3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Clemson, UCLA

4: Marquette, Xavier (A-10), Kansas, Ohio State

5: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, Illinois, Purdue

6: Minnesota, Washington, Gonzaga (WCC), Missouri

7: Arizona State, Florida State, West Virginia, Texas

8: Tennessee (SEC), Davidson (Southern), California, Florida

9: Boston College, Dayton, Virginia Tech, UNLV (MWC)

10: Utah State (WAC), LSU, USC, Utah

11: Cincinnati, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Miami-FL

12: Siena (Metro Atlantic), BYU, Kentucky, Arizona

13: Creighton (MVC), VCU (CAA), Buffalo (MAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

14: Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit), Vermont (America East), Cornell (Ivy)

15: VMI (Big South), American (Patriot), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Wisconsin, BYU, Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Creighton, Tennessee-Martin

OUT: Penn State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Providence, Austin Peay

Last Four In: Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arizona

Last Four Out: Kansas State, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Michigan

Next Four Out: Penn State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Nebraska

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12

Pac-10: 6/10

Big East: 8/16

Big Ten: 6/11

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

Mountain West: 3/9

A-10: 2/14