NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 9, 2009

For the third straight set of projections, UConn tops the charts. This pick was solidified by exemplary defense as well as two subtractions from the UNC roster (Marcus Ginyard ruled out by injury and Will Graves suspended for reasons that Roy Williams decided not to elaborate).

Though they have only one loss (to Arkansas), Oklahoma remains on the 2-line. Due to a matchup conflict, I placed them in the 6^th overall spot, though we project them to be higher than Louisville, who greeted February with a setback on Monday and an uninspiring performance on Sunday.

In terms of whose stock rose, look no further than the Tigers of Memphis and Missouri.

* I expected Memphis to be competitive against Gonzaga, but I did not expect to punish and demoralize the Bulldogs. John Calipari's management of Tyreke Evans - who came in with a selfish tag and is suddenly one of the best floor generals in the country since his move to the point – is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration on its face.

* As for Missouri, they are living up to their gaudy eye test metrics (top 25 national rating in offensive and defensive efficiency). Because they are now the 3^rd team in the Big XII, they will be the hunted and will not catch teams off guard.

Meanwhile, stock is plummeting in Austin, Lafayette, Las Vegas and State College.

* On the heels of three consecutive conference losses to teams not named Oklahoma or Kansas, Texas is in the midst of an identity crisis and it is due in part to being banged up and not having an NBA-caliber point guard in the backcourt. However, this is why Rick Barnes gets paid the big bucks. He will have this team turned around, though it may not be immediate.

* While I do not think Robbie Hummel is the best player for the Boilermakers, his absence has been felt in two losses this week. If he remains out, expect more of the same. The beneficiaries of this loss will no doubt be Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota, who are all battling for a 'protected' seed (i.e. 4 seed or better).

* UNLV is playing awful. When you lose close games, the finger will undoubtedly be in the direction of either the best player or the point guard. In this case, it's the same player. Yeah, I'm calling you out Wink Adams. Another week like this and my stretch of a Mountain West championship becomes no more. Utah is starting to normalize.

* As highlighted by other folks, in a week that Penn State needed a split, the Nittany Lions came out empty-handed and they have three halves of utter futility to thank for it. After winning unexpectedly in East Lansing, Penn State tanked against fellow bubble teams with back-to-back double-digit losses. That's toxic for a resume and I cannot emphasize that enough.

Moving down to the last four in, I went in with the notion that I am choosing the best 34 at-large teams. Miami-FL may finish 7-9 in the ACC and may garner serious at-large consideration, especially if Kentucky (who they defeated at Rupp Arena) rights the ship and Ohio State (who they would have beaten had Jack McClinton not been wrongfully ejected) continues to play well. In the end, it came down to Arizona and Kansas State. While I think that it is slightly irresponsible to have six from the PAC 10, Arizona has a better resume than Kansas State.

On a final note, Georgetown, who was a protected seed, is out of the field. The tipping point was an overtime loss against Cincinnati, which I happened to attend. If the Hoyas can go 8-10 in the Big East given their tougher than average schedule with a semifinal run at Madison Square Garden, they carry a strong argument for an at-large bid. At this point, however, it is unrealistic to see Georgetown win four of their last seven and win at least two at MSG.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)

2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest

3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Clemson, UCLA

4: Marquette, Xavier (A-10), Kansas, Ohio State

5: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, Illinois, Purdue

6: Minnesota, Washington, Gonzaga (WCC), Missouri

7: Arizona State, Florida State, West Virginia, Texas

8: Tennessee (SEC), Davidson (Southern), California, Florida

9: Boston College, Dayton, Virginia Tech, UNLV (MWC)

10: Utah State (WAC), LSU, USC, Utah

11: Cincinnati, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Miami-FL

12: Siena (Metro Atlantic), BYU, Kentucky, Arizona

13: Creighton (MVC), VCU (CAA), Buffalo (MAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

14: Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit), Vermont (America East), Cornell (Ivy)

15: VMI (Big South), American (Patriot), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Wisconsin, BYU, Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Creighton, Tennessee-Martin

OUT: Penn State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Providence, Austin Peay

Last Four In: Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arizona

Last Four Out: Kansas State, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Michigan

Next Four Out: Penn State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Nebraska

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12

Pac-10: 6/10

Big East: 8/16

Big Ten: 6/11

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

Mountain West: 3/9

A-10: 2/14

PHSports Staff Picks & Predictions: NCAA Tournament

Here they are (just in time)…the PHSports Staff Picks for March Madness!!!!

Before you start laughing, or hyperventilating if you remembered to actually fill out the $5-million bracket, I have to admit that we here at PHSports have been on a a bit of roll as of late (except for that whole Super Bowl-ordeal) predicting key games. Not to mention, several of us at least ½, if not ¾ of last year's Final Four squads (including a Florida pick or two to repeat in '07).

So sit back and relax…and watch us pick either UNC or UCLA to cut down the nets. JUST like EVERYBODY else!!!!

Do YOU trust this man with your team's Final Four aspirations?
Credit: CollegeInsider.com

Note: If you’re feeling a little down in-between games, feel free to check out:
-Players we LOVE in March Madness
-Upsets we LOVE in March Madness
-Games we LOVE in March Madness
-A Dozen Thoughts on the Bracket and Selection Sunday

Paymon’s Picks:
Final Four: UNC (East), Kansas (Midwest), Texas (South), & UCLA (West)
National Champions: UCLA (preseason pick)
MOP: Darren Collison

Top Sleeper: Oral Roberts
Under the Radar: Michigan State
Underrated: Davidson
Overrated: Oklahoma

1^st -Round Upset I Love : St. Joseph's over Oklahoma
2^nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving : Tennessee v. Butler/South Alabama
Final Comment : I'm not terribly enthused about this tournament field. I expect upsets to be few and far between in the 1st round, allowing for more upsets to occur in the later rounds. Though history deems it unlikely, this will be a tournament dominated by the elite teams. If that is the case, UCLA - a team with Final Four pedigree - finally has a dominant interior force to balance their fantastic guard play.

Clement’s Picks
Final Four: UNC (East), Wisconsin (Midwest), Texas (South), & UCLA (West)
National Champions: North Carolina
MOP: Ty Lawson

Top Sleeper: George Mason (duh)
Under the Radar: Kent State
Underrated: Michigan State
Overrated: Clemson

1^st-Round Upset I Love: Boise State over Louisville
2^nd-Round Matchup I’m Craving: Pittsburgh v. Michigan State
Final Comment: This is a boring boring boring bracket. Note to the committee: stop servicing the ratings and big-wigs and STOP pairing mid-majors early in order to eliminate as many as possible before the second weekend.

Note: This is the first year in the nearly a decade I haven't taken my pre-season pick (this year it was Kansas) to cut down the nets in April. Honestly, I can't take a Bill Self-coached team in April (I still don't know how I did it back in October). I just can't!

Armin’s Picks
Final Four: UNC (East), Vanderbilt (Midwest), Memphis (South), & UCLA (West)
National Champions: UCLA
MOP: Kevin Love

Top Sleeper: St. Joseph’s
Under the Radar: Butler
Underrated: Western Kentucky
Overrated: Georgetown

1st-Round Upset I Love: George Mason over Notre Dame
2nd-Round Matchup I’m Craving: Duke v. Arizona
Final Comment: This tournament is RIPE with potential upsets, but the top seeds will prevail.

Sum’s Picks
Final Four: Tennessee (East), Kansas (Midwest), Texas (South), & UCLA (West)
National Champions: UCLA
MOP: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

Top Sleeper: St. Joseph’s
Under the Radar: Mississippi State
Underrated: Arkansas
Overrated: Duke

1st-Round Upset I Love: Mason over Notre Dame (What can I say? I'm a homer!)
2nd-Round Matchup I'm Craving: St. Joe's vs. Louisville
Final Comment: With such a top-heavy tourney, if anyone other than a 1 or 2 seed wins it all, that'll be an upset.

The majority of our staff is CAA-biased. Obviously.
However, we're also steadfast in taking Mason over the Harongodys.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Want to chime in your own opinions??? Well GO FOR IT!!!! COMMENT!

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2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

A Six-Pack of Conference Tournament Banter

The final weekend of the regular season means one thing: post-season tournaments. Huh? You heard it right the first time. The big-daddy conferences are settling the score after a year of mostly memorable battles. While several key conferences have been decided (Colonial, MVC, Horizon, Big South, West Coast, etc.), we have plenty still to go. While the A-10 and Conference USA offer up snorers for the most part, here are the Big-6 BCS-laden tournaments and some insights to each to take a peak at before the viewing begins today on Wednesday.

Here’s the briefest of looks from a ramblin’ man’s perspective.

...in alphabetical order...

1) Atlantic Coast Conference [ACC]
Favorite: North Carolina
Hottest: Maryland
StrugaLING: Duke
Hot/Cold: Virginia & Virginia Tech
Overrated: Boston College
Bubble: Clemson & Florida State
Look Out For: Georgia Tech
Player to Watch: Sean Singletary [UVA's 1st of two superstars the other being JR Reynolds, has to make key shots for UVA to avoid a costly slip-up for seeding.]

2) Big East Conference [Big East]
Favorite: Georgetown
Hottest: Louisville
StrugaLING: Connecticut
Hot/Cold: Marquette
Overrated: Notre Dame
Bubble: Syracuse, West Virginia, & DePaul
Look Out For: Villanova
Player to Watch: Roy Hibbert [Georgetown's big-man needs to impose himself more with physical matchups awaiting him with Villanova/ND/Syracuse looming.]

3) Big Ten Conference [Big 10]
Favorite: Wisconsin
Hottest: Ohio State
StrugaLING: Everyone outside Ohio State & Wisconsin honestly
Hot/Cold: Michigan State
Overrated: Indiana
Bubble: Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, & Michigan
Look Out For: Michigan State
Player to Watch: Mike Conley Jr. [Ohio State point guard may be their key player in their attempt to lock up a #1 seed and continue the momentum off of their win at home against Wisconsin.]

4) Big Twelve Conference [Big 12]
Favorite: Kansas
Hottest: Kansas
StrugaLING: Oklahoma State
Hot/Cold: Texas Tech
Overrated: Kansas State
Bubble: Kansas State
Look Out For: Texas & Texas A&M
Player to Watch: Acie Law [Texas A&M’s big-time performer is as clutch as college basketball has seen in recent memory.]

5) Pacific Ten Conference [Pac-10]
Favorite: UCLA
Hottest: Washington
StrugaLING: Arizona
Hot/Cold: Oregon
Overrated: USC
Bubble: Stanford
Look Out For: Oregon/Arizona winner
Player to Watch: Darren Collison [UCLA’s point guard has rebounded from minor injuries for the most part, leading the team whom many consider to be the team-to-beat heading into March Madness.]

6) Southeastern Conference [SEC]
Favorite: Florida
Hottest: Vanderbilt
StrugaLING: SEC West
Hot/Cold: Tennessee
Overrated: Kentucky
Look Out For: Arkansas
Player to Watch: Ronald Steele [Alabama’s best all-around talent is currently injured and many wonder if he will miss out on the postseason altogether this season.]

One way or another, we’re primed for some amazing games. Especially since Saturday Night in Madison Square is always one of my favorite games of the year. Remember these? 1996: Allen Iverson v. Ray Allen, GMac’s run in 2006, Pitt/UCONN 1 (2002), 2 (2003...ok, not so great), and 3 (2004), and plenty more amazing memories have spoiled viewers of the Big East Tournament finale on Saturday nights on ESPN.

Fortunately, there’s enough to go around for everyone.
Even us VCU fans...

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Washington St.	Maryland	Memphis	Southern Illinois
4	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Marquette	Duke	Vanderbilt
6	UNLV	Nevada	Virginia	Texas
7	Georgia Tech	Louisville	BYU	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Texas Tech	Creighton	Villanova
9	Butler	Xavier	Notre Dame	Michigan St.
10	Winthrop	Air Force	USC	Boston College
11	Syracuse	Missouri St.	Old Dominion	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Davidson	Akron	Gonzaga
13	Arkansas	Purdue	Holy Cross	Drexel
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Siena	Belmont	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3