Responses to Selection Sunday
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi

Bracket Projection Results

TEAMS SELECTED: 63/65 (32/34 at-large)
PREDICTED WITHIN ONE LINE: 49/65
EXACT SEEDS PREDICTED: 27/65

At this time last year, I was not a member of the blogosphere, but I did predict 62 of 65 teams correctly. After last year’s committee focused on conference allocation, I still went with my better judgment rather than unconventional idiocy. I’ll take solace in picking Syracuse and Drexel over the two Big Ten strugglers, Purdue and Illinois.

****
Big Ten love?

When the committee says that it doesn’t look at last year’s results, it’s true when it comes to the Big Ten. If you recall, the Big Ten didn’t even make it out of the first weekend last year. It would be ignorant to suggest that a conference representative won’t make it out of the first weekend, but frankly, the Big Ten was not that good this season. Ohio State and Wisconsin were stellar and the rest were either mediocre of just plain bad.

Sure, Illinois had 11 conference wins, but six were against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn St.). Purdue had 10 conference wins, half of which were against the same bottom three. They even lost a game against Minnesota. How many times did either team defeat Ohio State and Wisconsin? Squadoosh. How many RPI top 25 teams did either team defeat? Squadoosh.

As for Indiana, how on earth do they get a 7 seed? They were 5-8 against the RPI top 50, 5-10 on road and neutral courts, stunk up the court ever since they defeated Wisconsin at home. After that signature win, Indiana went 1-5 against teams not named Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn St. That’s unacceptable, and the Hoosiers were better suited for the 10/11 lines rather than the 7 line.

****
Egregious Seeding Errors

To be honest, this is where the tournament committee really messed up with this bracket. Neither of us work for CBS, ESPN, or any of the networks who might feel they need to show some allegiance towards the selectors. Instead, we're calling them out, specifically the vague Gary Walters (who interviewed terribly on ESPN), for a variety of reasons. Point number of my complaints with this bracket: egregious seeds. We realize they have to protect certain regions and certain potential matchups, but some of the seedings had no excuse. We’ve already pointed out Indiana’s undeserved 7-seed. Let’s analyze four others that stood out as boneheaded mistakes mere seconds after I heard them.

1) Virginia as a 4-seed

This is a talented team, especially the backcourt duo, that clearly got boosted up 2 or 3 seeds. Sure, they took out Virginia Tech and won a share of the regular-season ACC title. But look at these losses down the stretch (@Miami, @Wake Forest, and in the ACC tournament NC State). Away from John Paul Jones, the 'Hoos were just 3-9. Did we stutter? There is no way this team is deserving of the four-seed. Unfortunately, this will become a recurring theme as we study some of the mistakes below.

2) Butler (AKA Miss November) as a 5-seed

Obviously, this seed was a reward for the Preseason NIT, which was almost 6 months ago. They shared the Horizon regular-season title with Wright State and were beaten again in the conference tournament finale by five to the Raiders. Despite being a fun team to watch and beloved by a lot of the media, Butler should be playing in an 8/9 game.

3) UNLV as a 7-seed

Yes, the Mountain West Conference has struggled in the Big Dance since its formation (5-21). However, the Runnin’ Rebels had an impressive RPI (10^th) and won 11 of their last 13 (with losses against San Diego St. and BYU mixed in-between). Look no further than the two teams listed above to see why the Rebels were shafted with the tough 7-seed.

4) Purdue as a 9-seed

What a surprise! Another Big Ten team getting far too much pub for “good losses”. Their RPI (45) is far from attractive as a 9-seed. If you want to talk about good wins out of conference (Virginia and who else?), then you better discuss the bad ones in-and-out (@Indiana State, @Minnesota, @Michigan). Outside of inconsistent-at-best Big Ten play, I really wonder why Purdue was rewarded over VCU, Creighton, Old Dominion, and some other conference champion teams as well as those already being mentioned as being left out.

****
An Overall Poor Job By The Committee

Again, I'm not here to pretend I could do better, but I know people (no, not Joe Lunardi) who actually watched the games and utilized more useful indicators in determining the best 34 at-large teams. With this blog as my podium, I’m also more than in the right to complain and ask the essential question “why?”

Why did Arkansas, according to the tournament committee, merit the final at-large birth [over the likes of Syracuse and Drexel] before the result to the Florida game occurred?

Why did Old Dominion deserve to be in and Drexel be out from the CAA? Why was the CAA given less respect than the A-10 and Horizon League?

Why was Syracuse snubbed from the field entirely? Why did Illinois and Purdue get in with less quality wins, similar futility against the RPI top 50, and weaker road and neutral court production?

Why were only 6 at-large births given to mid-majors after only 8 last year?

Why doesn’t the tournament committee watch the Sunday games in detail?

Was Akron, with that shot-clock discrepancy, completely forgotten with just cause for an at-large bid?

How much will the tournament miss guys like Al Thornton, Cartier Martin, Demetrius Nichols, Frank Elegar, and Mario Boggans (didn’t deserve to be, but an amazing talent)?

****
Clement’s Overall Thoughts

I’m not gonna lie, I’m heartbroken that Syracuse didn’t get in. Even more so with Drexel. With allegiances to my favorite team (the Orange) and my favorite conference (the CAA), I know I’m biased. However, I also believe that the Orange (3 wins against the top 25, 10 wins in conference, & .500 record on the road in conference) had enough quality wins to get in (Georgetown by 14, @Marquette handily, Villanova handily, @Providence on senior night), but I also realize our out-of-conference schedule was lacking as well as having losses to @St. John’s, @UCONN, and Drexel. We did lose games to Oklahoma St. and Wichita St., which turned out to be bad losses in retrospect despite both teams playing very well at the time. [Countless teams hung their seeds and selections on similar early victories and tough in-conference defeats.]

The real travesty (wow, I’m agreeing with Dick Vitale) had to be Drexel who had strong wins (wins @Syracuse, @Villanova, and @Creighton in a BracketBusters game) that outweighed the bad losses (@Penn, @Rider, @William & Mary). Yet, they were criticized for conference play – a double standard when thinking of Illinois, Purdue, Stanford, and especially Arkansas.

Staying with the talking heads, Jay Bilas made a major mistake during Bracketology tonight. Losses to VCU and ODU (even a sweep) are not bad losses for Drexel, since both teams are in and deserved to be in the tournament. An ever bigger error was from Doug Gottlieb, who is ten times better on radio than on TV. He claimed Air Force was snubbed. All they had to do was win one of their last four games and they folded.

In the end, I’ll ride my VCU Rams as long as they can go and enjoy the tournament as much as I can. Even with the obvious insight that ‘Cuse & Drexel would’ve struggled in tough first-round matchups, I still hate the fact I’ll spend the majority of this tournament rooting against people rather than rooting for them.

Message to Coach Boeheim: Please schedule tougher matchups out of conference earlier outside of New York.

Message to Bruiser Flint: You did everything you could and still got screwed. Screwed.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Washington St.	Maryland	Memphis	Southern Illinois
4	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Marquette	Duke	Vanderbilt
6	UNLV	Nevada	Virginia	Texas
7	Georgia Tech	Louisville	BYU	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Texas Tech	Creighton	Villanova
9	Butler	Xavier	Notre Dame	Michigan St.
10	Winthrop	Air Force	USC	Boston College
11	Syracuse	Missouri St.	Old Dominion	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Davidson	Akron	Gonzaga
13	Arkansas	Purdue	Holy Cross	Drexel
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Siena	Belmont	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3

Weekend Observations from the R-I-C

Three days down in Richmond….one to go.

The Aeropostale CAA Men’s Basketball Championship will be decided between the 1-seed Virginia Commonwealth University and the 6-seed, last year’s Cinderella-dejour, George Mason.

This isn’t the first time these two have met in the CAA Title game either. Only four years ago, VCU narrowly defeated George Mason for Jeff Capel’s first-and-only CAA Title on a free-throw from Jesse Pellot-Rosa and a narrow miss on a Jai Lewis fadeaway attempt.

So how’d they get here this year?

Friday Observations
Admittedly absent from the day’s action, there were still plenty of reasons to be in attendance at the Richmond Coliseum for each of the four games. Georgia State took down William & Mary after a nail-biting finish which included a 3-point play by the Tribe with less than 5 ticks to go to take a 1-point lead AND then a fumbling-35 foot prayer by the Panthers’ sophomore star Leonard Mendez to win. Northeastern mercifully ended Delaware’s putrid season rather swiftly following the dramatics. In the night-session, expected winners Towson and George Mason took care of pesky opponents UNC-Wilmington & Just Missed UVA. Fortunately, for everyone in attendance, the UNC-Wilmington Seahawk no longer does a 30-second dance to the chorus of N’Sync’s Bye Bye Bye.

Saturday Observations
50% attendance was a better showing for the big guy. VCU sprinted to an early double-digit lead over Georgia State, withstanding one minor run before cruising to a spot in the semi-finals. Drexel wasted little time, riding CAA Defensive Player of the Year Frank Elegar throughout, in dispatching Northeastern. Old Dominion slipped up early with Towson, but held on late for a rather unconvincing 58-55 victory (farewell Gary Neal). George Mason struck their first major upset of the tournament, taking down 3-seed Hofstra behind solid outside shooting and Hofstra’s gunner Aguido being left all alone in the corner for a potential overtime-forcing trey at the buzzer. Not the end to Lenord Stokes' CAA-career he must have envisioned just a few nights earlier.

Sunday Observations
100% attendance. Every second. Boo ya. VCU, despite two offensive fouls for star point guard Eric Maynor in the first four minutes, took an impressive 10-point halftime lead against the rival Dragons. Despite Bruiser’s complaints for excessive contact, VCU’s press dogged the Dragons and aided in a lead inflating to as many as 18 points with 15 minutes to go. Drexel would cut the lead down to as low as 8 as VCU scored a whopping 2 points over the next 10 minutes. However in the end, VCU made enough key shots and BA Walker sunk several free throws to allow the Rams to become the first entrant into Monday Night’s title game. VCU’s press continues to impress, yet their problem with ball-handling, particularly sans-Manor, led to countless turnovers in a sloppy second-half. Drexel’s student section should be commended for a valiant effort, especially following several of Elegar’s monster jams, but were left with thoughts of the NIT lingering, rather than 100% confidence for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Further proof why I believe that Domonic Mejia is the most overrated player the CAA has seen in several years. George Mason stormed the court early and often against the Lady Monarchs, who seemed lazy and unmotivated for the majority of the game. After a 10-2 opening run, aided in large part by early 3s from Dre Smith and Folarin Campbell, Mason never looked back as they cruised to a double-digit lead only five minutes into the game. At no point could ODU trickle the lead closer than 6 , as the Patriots made just enough free throws (Will Thomas was abysmal at times from the ‘charity strip’) to clinch their second upset victory of the tournament. Coach Larranaga should be praised for an outstanding effort, as well as great ball-handling from the duo of Jordan Carter & Gabe Norwood. Folarin Campbell and Will Thomas put together a pair of 3-point plays to seal any last-gasp run from the seemingly overmatched and outworked Monarchs.

So there we have it. Our Aeropostale CAA Men's Basketball Championship game.
#1 VCU vs. #6 George Mason.

A lot of talk has already begun regarding the at-large chances for Drexel and ODU. Both have strong claims, but admittedly took big blows this weekend (especially ODU for their performances in both games). VCU, who is nowhere near a lock to win the title tomorrow night, staked another win against Drexel (both of their wins over the Dragons this year were away from the Siegel Center) which aided their strengthened at-large claim. Ironically enough, George Mason may yet again sneak into the Big Dance and become a very dangerous out.

Predictions? VCU…will show up. And they’ll win. It might not be pretty, but I seriously wonder if Dre Smith can have a similar outing like he had tonight. What’s the key you ask? It’s got to be two things in my not-so-humble opinion: the ball-handling from George Mason against the VCU press and VCU needing to take an early lead so juniors Michael Anderson and Will Fameni can attempt to keep up with the savvy and tournament-tested Will Thomas. Should be a lot of fun either way. And you know...Clement shall be there.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 7.1

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place. Additionally, these projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

We are now nine days away from Selection Sunday, and half of the top eight teams have lost already this week. The biggest shake-up at the top was North Carolina’s removal from the land of the #1 seeds. At their expense, Wisconsin nipped Kansas for the final 1-seed. Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s overtime loss to Texas gave us enough to alter the projected winner of the Big 12. In short, A&M (AKA Acie Law IV university) didn’t show their normal defensive vigor, and that’s a very bad sign moving forward.

In the ACC, Maryland completed its season sweep of Duke, and now occupy the final 3-seed – a far-cry from being 3-6 in conference and allegations that Gary Williams had forgotten how to coach. Staying in the ACC, Georgia Tech moved one major step closer to safety, as they defeated North Carolina on Thursday night. Despite being the outright regular season leader, UVa lacks the quality road/neutral court wins to garner a higher seed. The ‘Hoos have a lot to gain next weekend in Tampa.

Although I highly doubt that this will hold, Appalachian St. is the final team in the field. Why? Their resume is better than the other teams. The team currently in the field that has to impress me to stay in is Illinois. The majority of their conference wins are against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State), who are just awful. Their measurables (RPI, SOS) are what keeps them in, but something just doesn’t add up about this team except for their solid team defense.

Picking up steam in the national press is recognition of a possible second bid for the Colonial Athletic Association. This is not news to PHSports, as we have projected two bids for the conference since February 12. Narcissism aside, if VCU and Drexel meet in the semifinals, many in the know are now considering this game on Sunday to be worth an at-large bid.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	Wisconsin	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	North Carolina	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Maryland	Memphis	Pittsburgh	Southern Illinois
4	Oregon	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt
5	UNLV	Duke	Tennessee	Virginia
6	Nevada	Kentucky	Arizona	Texas
7	Louisville	Marquette	BYU	Indiana
8	Boston College	Michigan St.	Stanford	Texas Tech
9	Xavier	Notre Dame	Butler	Villanova
10	USC	Creighton	Georgia Tech	Air Force
11	Missouri St.	Illinois	Old Dominion	Winthrop
12	Syracuse	Drexel	Appalachian St.	Gonzaga
13	Georgia	Holy Cross	Akron	Davidson
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Sam Houston St.	Marist	E. Tennessee St.	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Austin Peay	Delaware St.

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, Wisconsin
2s: Kansas, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Maryland
4s: Oregon, Virginia Tech, Washington St., Vanderbilt
5s: Virginia, Tennessee, Duke, UNLV
6s: Nevada, Kentucky, Texas, Arizona
7s: Marquette, BYU, Indiana, Louisville
8s: Boston College, Stanford, Michigan St., Texas Tech
9s: USC, Georgia Tech, Villanova, Butler (USC and Georgia Tech were placed on the 10^th seed line due to conflict)
10s: Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, Air Force (Notre Dame and Xavier are placed on the 9^th seed line)
11s: Winthrop, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Missouri St. (Syracuse was placed on the 12^th seed line due to conflict)
12s: Illinois, Drexel, Gonzaga, Georgia (Illinois was placed on the 11^th seed line and Georgia was placed on the 13^th seed line due to conflicts)
13s: Appalachian St., Davidson, Holy Cross, Akron (Appalachian St. was placed on the 12^th line due to Georgia’s conflict)
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Marist, Sam Houston St., E. Tennessee St.
16s: Austin Peay, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Appalachian St.
Out: Kansas St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Drexel, Georgia, Appalachian St.
Last Four Out: Alabama, Purdue, Oklahoma St. UMass
Next Four Out: Bradley, VCU, Utah St., Florida St.

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Southern: 2

Ramblings from a Rambler...

Sure, I'm Mr. NFL to most in the blogsphere...but it isn't that way once March Madness hits.

While my allegiance is almost always with the Orange up in Syracuse...this year has been downright disastrous when it's mattered the most. Tourney hopes are pretty weak at this point. Without an amazing winning streak to end the season (@Providence, Georgetown, and @ Villanova)...there's little to no chance we're in.

And then of course there's my VCU Rams. I'm a current graduate student there, already with an undergrad degree wrapped up, and I have been fiercely loyal to the team, even Derrick Reid, since I've been here. We saw a CAA Title a little over 3 years ago and man did it feel good to be there. Back when guys like BA Walker and Jesse Pellot-Rosa were freshman. Fast forward to 2007 and the two seniors have been a little flat as of late (especially losing at Hofstra, at ODU, and a pathetic drubbing from Bradley just last night in this year's Bracketbuster).

The conference tournament is merely a week away, of game-action (just under two weeks on the calendar), with a putrid schedule remaining for the league's top teams. Shame on the CAA (yes, SHAME) for this horrific lineup. Hofstra, Mason, ODU, Drexel, and VCU (yes, the big guns of the conference) won't see each other post-Bracketbuster.

Why did this happen? Probably so the "big-guns" would have a week of softies in order to be better prepared for showdowns in the conference tourney. Point is: I don't like it. I don't expect any upsets whatsoever this week...foolish or not.

So where would that leave us? [Assuming everyone wins out with their remaining two in-conference matchups]

#1. VCU [16-2] #2. ODU [15-3] #3. Hofstra [14-4] #4. Drexel [13-5]

That is your elite four of the CAA. Impressive. All worthy of a bid, in my opinion, in the NCAA Tourney. Problem is, they aren't all worthy enough to take away spots from the POWER conference squads who have a quality win or two...yet were as inconsistent as they could've possibly been with their talent (ironic, Syracuse fits that bill quite well).

Don't worry, this isn't a true Clement-tirade. I don't have the patience. I just feel frustrated when a 16-13 team gets in over someone who is 25-5. It happens. Of course, we all realize that BCS-team might be more talented and more built to compete in its major conference. But we don't take into consideration how many chances it got to beat great teams. Mid-majors get one or two major matchups a year. Usually on the road and VERY early on in the season. Good luck with that. Check in with a team like Alabama, Syracuse, Duke, Gonzaga (no longer a real mid-major), South Carolina, Oklahoma, or Michigan...and they got half-a-dozen or more marquee matchups. I get even more upset when I see two mid-level Big Ten schools get a juicy 12pm Saturday tip on ESPN while a mid-major showdown sees ESPN on one Bracketbusting Sunday.

It's just politics with the haves and have-nots. All I will say to each of the four major-contenders to the CAA tournament is this: Show up in Richmond for three days, win the conference tourney, and avoid the agony of being on the bubble.

-VCU lacks a real quality win outside of the CAA and its past 10 might not look to attractive...especially losing at home to a superior Bradley squad (5th in the MVC).
-ODU could be on-fire, but might fall early in the tourney if the refs limit their physicality.
-Hofstra has some BAD losses and may be seen as too live-or-die with their backcourt.
-Drexel seems to have the weakest resume, despite a nice win v. Creighton, in a conference that will only get 2-bids in a best-case scenario.

All of these teams, for ANY sort of hope at an at-large, must lose a nail biter in the conference tournament to have a prayer. It makes for what could be an amazing final two days in Richmond during the CAA Tournament. Hope you have ESPN 8 to be able to see any of them.

Because honestly, even with George Mason of last year (which still doesn't get nearly enough credit for what it did)...neither of the three other teams (or four if Mason makes a similar miracle run) has much of a realistic shot of getting love on Selection Sunday.