Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style [Mid-Week Edition]

Late last night/early this morning, Clement posed a series of questions. Tonight, I provide answers to those questions that surround the NCAA Tournament.

"Quin Snyder Who?"
Blake Griffin goes for 16 and 20, yet the Oklahoma Sooners lose to Missouri (who is 18-0 at home btw). Meanwhile, Kansas loses @ (2-12 in conference) Texas Tech in a relative 19-point laugher.

Q: With that in mind: has Oklahoma ruined their chances at a #1 seed?
A: For starters, I projected Oklahoma was the #6 overall team in the Big XII despite projecting them to win their conference tournament. Why is this the case? They lack the quality wins that the top 3 Big East and top 2 ACC teams have. Not to mention, Oklahoma has often played to the level of their competition, needing to pull away late in games against inferior competition. While "style points" get scrutinized more often in college football, it will be difficult to argue that OU has a stronger resume than the aforementioned teams, as well as Michigan State and Wake Forest.

"Missing in Action"
Marquette thumped Pitt in the opening stretch of the second half - with a 21-5 run out of the gates - but couldn't seal the deal, ultimately losing 90-75 to DeJuan Blair and company (largely due to a 21-2 run of their own).
Q: Is the loss of senior guard and captain Dominic James simply too devastating to take the Golden Eagles seriously come tourney time?
A: Yes. It was already going to be tough sledding for Marquette with James. Without James, Jerel McNeal is a shell of himself. In two road games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, he has shot 11-for-43 from the field.

"Really an Upset?"
Q: Let's make it simple. Whose home loss was more surprising: LSU's to Vanderbilt or Purdue's to Northwestern?
A: Because of their horrible strength of schedule, I have not drank the LSU Kool-Aid yet. Don't get me wrong, they have some quality guard play and Trent Johnson is an excellent Xs and Os coach. That said, the Purdue's loss was more surprising, because I thought they were turning the corner. I thought wrong. That Kevin Coble is some player!

"Rambling Wreck!"
Q: Admit it, after tonight's loss to Georgia Tech...even the staunchest Miami (Florida-style) supporters have to shut their yaps. Right?
A: Absolutely. Miami lost a must-win game against an ill-disciplined yet talented Georgia Tech team. It was a must-win game because the value of their best OOC win is decreasing by the minute. It's not quite over for Miami because bubble teams continue to lose and they can make up plenty of ground during Championship Week.

"It's So Hard To Say Goodbye..."
Q: Is it possible that both SEC stalwarts Kentucky (losing to Georgia) and Florida (losing to Mississippi State) sealed their bubble fates with damaging losses tonight?
A: First off, thank you, Boyz II Men. Second, the Florida/Kentucky tussle this weekend is an at-large bid elimination game. Third, I think it is possible for the winner to have a chance an at-large bid if they make the SEC Tournament Final.

"Mired in the Muck"
Q: Is it possible a mid-major (i.e. Creighton, Siena, St. Mary's, Davidson) was the big winner with SO MANY bubble teams losing in the past 48 hours (Va. Tech, Maryland, Florida, Kentucky, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Kansas State)? Or, was it a major conference squad like Providence, Texas A&M, or Arizona (who does draw Cal tomorrow)?
A: It's too early to say. These smaller tournaments must first happen, but Creighton and Siena are definitely benefitting while St. Mary's and Davidson are not far behind. Other potential winners are Rhode Island and Washington State. Both are peaking at the right time and have resumes that look better with every passing loss by every bubble team.

***Bonus Question***
"Isn't this a FOOTBALL Conference?"
No it isn't a trivial question this time. Minnesota moves to 9-8 in the Big 10 with a HUGE home victory against Wisconsin. Next up: Michigan.
Q: What are we mere mortals to make of Big Ten bubble squads Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern? A simple in/out (as of tonight) would suffice.
A: Here are my thoughts ...
Penn State: IN
Wisconsin: IN
Ohio State: IN
Minnesota: IN
Michigan: OUT
Northwestern: OUT

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 9, 2009

For the third straight set of projections, UConn tops the charts. This pick was solidified by exemplary defense as well as two subtractions from the UNC roster (Marcus Ginyard ruled out by injury and Will Graves suspended for reasons that Roy Williams decided not to elaborate).

Though they have only one loss (to Arkansas), Oklahoma remains on the 2-line. Due to a matchup conflict, I placed them in the 6^th overall spot, though we project them to be higher than Louisville, who greeted February with a setback on Monday and an uninspiring performance on Sunday.

In terms of whose stock rose, look no further than the Tigers of Memphis and Missouri.

* I expected Memphis to be competitive against Gonzaga, but I did not expect to punish and demoralize the Bulldogs. John Calipari's management of Tyreke Evans - who came in with a selfish tag and is suddenly one of the best floor generals in the country since his move to the point – is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration on its face.

* As for Missouri, they are living up to their gaudy eye test metrics (top 25 national rating in offensive and defensive efficiency). Because they are now the 3^rd team in the Big XII, they will be the hunted and will not catch teams off guard.

Meanwhile, stock is plummeting in Austin, Lafayette, Las Vegas and State College.

* On the heels of three consecutive conference losses to teams not named Oklahoma or Kansas, Texas is in the midst of an identity crisis and it is due in part to being banged up and not having an NBA-caliber point guard in the backcourt. However, this is why Rick Barnes gets paid the big bucks. He will have this team turned around, though it may not be immediate.

* While I do not think Robbie Hummel is the best player for the Boilermakers, his absence has been felt in two losses this week. If he remains out, expect more of the same. The beneficiaries of this loss will no doubt be Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota, who are all battling for a 'protected' seed (i.e. 4 seed or better).

* UNLV is playing awful. When you lose close games, the finger will undoubtedly be in the direction of either the best player or the point guard. In this case, it's the same player. Yeah, I'm calling you out Wink Adams. Another week like this and my stretch of a Mountain West championship becomes no more. Utah is starting to normalize.

* As highlighted by other folks, in a week that Penn State needed a split, the Nittany Lions came out empty-handed and they have three halves of utter futility to thank for it. After winning unexpectedly in East Lansing, Penn State tanked against fellow bubble teams with back-to-back double-digit losses. That's toxic for a resume and I cannot emphasize that enough.

Moving down to the last four in, I went in with the notion that I am choosing the best 34 at-large teams. Miami-FL may finish 7-9 in the ACC and may garner serious at-large consideration, especially if Kentucky (who they defeated at Rupp Arena) rights the ship and Ohio State (who they would have beaten had Jack McClinton not been wrongfully ejected) continues to play well. In the end, it came down to Arizona and Kansas State. While I think that it is slightly irresponsible to have six from the PAC 10, Arizona has a better resume than Kansas State.

On a final note, Georgetown, who was a protected seed, is out of the field. The tipping point was an overtime loss against Cincinnati, which I happened to attend. If the Hoyas can go 8-10 in the Big East given their tougher than average schedule with a semifinal run at Madison Square Garden, they carry a strong argument for an at-large bid. At this point, however, it is unrealistic to see Georgetown win four of their last seven and win at least two at MSG.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)

2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest

3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Clemson, UCLA

4: Marquette, Xavier (A-10), Kansas, Ohio State

5: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, Illinois, Purdue

6: Minnesota, Washington, Gonzaga (WCC), Missouri

7: Arizona State, Florida State, West Virginia, Texas

8: Tennessee (SEC), Davidson (Southern), California, Florida

9: Boston College, Dayton, Virginia Tech, UNLV (MWC)

10: Utah State (WAC), LSU, USC, Utah

11: Cincinnati, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Miami-FL

12: Siena (Metro Atlantic), BYU, Kentucky, Arizona

13: Creighton (MVC), VCU (CAA), Buffalo (MAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

14: Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit), Vermont (America East), Cornell (Ivy)

15: VMI (Big South), American (Patriot), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Wisconsin, BYU, Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Creighton, Tennessee-Martin

OUT: Penn State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Providence, Austin Peay

Last Four In: Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arizona

Last Four Out: Kansas State, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Michigan

Next Four Out: Penn State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Nebraska

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12

Pac-10: 6/10

Big East: 8/16

Big Ten: 6/11

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

Mountain West: 3/9

A-10: 2/14

Top College Basketball Recruiting Classes for 2007

Tonight marks the culmination of events that began in mid-October when teams began practicing with one goal in mind: win the national championship. For Florida or Ohio State, it will become a reality. For everyone else, they can look forward to next year and the fruits of their seemingly ceaseless recruiting pitches.

Data from Rivals.com

1. Kansas St.
***** Michael Beasley, PF, 6-9 235 (1)
***** Bill Walker, SF, 6-6 220 (7)
*** Dominique Sutton, SF, 6-4 195 (97)
*** Fred Brown, SG, 6-3 185
*** Jacob Pullen, PG, 6-1 175

Next year, Kansas State will not be in the discussion as a bubble team, because they’ll have top recruit Michael Beasley playing the 4 for them. Bill Walker should be able to return from injury and the Wildcats should return most of its players. Not to mention, Bill Huggins will have another year to mold his players to his likening.

2. Syracuse Orange
***** Donte Green, SF, 6-9 217 (10)
***** Johnny Flynn, PG, 5-11 170 (22)
**** Antonio Jardine, SG, 6-1 180 (57)
**** Rick Jackson, PF, 6-8 235 (95)
*** Sean Williams, C, 6-11 220

The Orange reloads at every position, with Flynn and Green leading the recruiting class. Syracuse will need leadership at the guard and forward, as they lose crucial starters in both areas. The maturation process of Paul Harris may play a big role in determining how far these Orange may go next season.

3. USC Trojans
***** OJ Mayo, PG, 6-5 215 (6)
***** Davon Jefferson, SF, 6-7 190 (15 – class of 2006)
*** Leonard Washington, SF, 6-6 225 (108)
*** Venoy Overton, PG, 6-0 165
*** Marcus Simmons, SF, 6-4 175

USC was 10 minutes and a couple of fresh bodies away from upending #1 seed North Carolina in the East region. Next year, that excuse won’t apply, as the Trojans have reloaded with speed and skill. Note to Tim Floyd: Keep OJ Mayo on the court and out of trouble.

4. Arizona Wildcats
***** Jerryd Bayless, SG, 6-3 193 (9)
***** Jamelle Horne, SF, 6-7 205 (19)
*** Laval Lucas-Perry, PG, 6-1 191 (128)
*** Zane Johnson, SF, 6-6 200 (132)
*** Alex Jacobson, C, 7-1 223

Lute Olsen is just dying for leadership. He didn’t get it with Mustapha Shakur and he’s hoping that Bayless is more than a one-and-done player. Horne will immediately step into the Marcus Williams role, who’s more than likely NBA-bound. With that said, will Jacobson fill the shoes of Ivan Radenovic, who was by far, the most consistent player on last year’s underachieving roster.

5. Florida Gators
***** Nick Calathes, PG, 6-5 185 (13)
**** Chandler Parsons, SF, 6-8 190 (21)
**** Alex Tyus, PF, 6-8 210 (47)
**** Adam Allen, SF, 6-6 185 (68)

With this recruiting class, you can expect a mass exodus from the Florida player ranks. If Billy Donovan jettisons for Lexington, you can expect at least a couple of de-commits to occur. Meanwhile, the Gators are still chasing 5-star big man Patrick Patterson. Should the Gators land Patterson, they’ll have to be considered a top 3 recruiting class.

ON THE PERIPHERY

Ohio State: It should be no shock to anyone that Thad Matta can recruit. Knowing Greg Oden is very likely to ascend to the NBA ranks this summer, Matta signed Kosta Koufos, a 7-footer with skill who is a 5-star recruit. Matta signed four other young men, all of whom can fight for minutes upon arrival in Columbus.

Purdue: Knowing that his squad lacks size, Matt Painter signed four versatile 4-star recruits, three of which are 6’8” and taller.

Duke: Coach K must’ve known that his team would have scoring problems this season, because he’s snapped up Kyle Singler, who’s considered the most complete recruit entering college basketball next season. After a year’s hiatus, Duke gets a commit from the nation’s top white player. Taylor King can light it up from deep and Nolan Smith provides some badly-needed ball-handling skills.

Indiana: No matter how he got him (google "Gregg Doyel" + "Kelvin Sampson" + "Gordon" and you're golden), Kelvin Sampson landed Eric Gordon, the nation’s #2 recruit according to Rivals. Gordon should make sure that Indiana scores more than 13 points in a half versus UCLA. Sampson also signed imposing center Eli Holman, Jordan Crawford (PG), Jamarcus Ellis (JUCO-SG), and Brandon McGee. Can the talent get Sampson back into the Sweet 16 for the first time in what seems like forever?

Responses to Selection Sunday
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi

Bracket Projection Results

TEAMS SELECTED: 63/65 (32/34 at-large)
PREDICTED WITHIN ONE LINE: 49/65
EXACT SEEDS PREDICTED: 27/65

At this time last year, I was not a member of the blogosphere, but I did predict 62 of 65 teams correctly. After last year’s committee focused on conference allocation, I still went with my better judgment rather than unconventional idiocy. I’ll take solace in picking Syracuse and Drexel over the two Big Ten strugglers, Purdue and Illinois.

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Big Ten love?

When the committee says that it doesn’t look at last year’s results, it’s true when it comes to the Big Ten. If you recall, the Big Ten didn’t even make it out of the first weekend last year. It would be ignorant to suggest that a conference representative won’t make it out of the first weekend, but frankly, the Big Ten was not that good this season. Ohio State and Wisconsin were stellar and the rest were either mediocre of just plain bad.

Sure, Illinois had 11 conference wins, but six were against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn St.). Purdue had 10 conference wins, half of which were against the same bottom three. They even lost a game against Minnesota. How many times did either team defeat Ohio State and Wisconsin? Squadoosh. How many RPI top 25 teams did either team defeat? Squadoosh.

As for Indiana, how on earth do they get a 7 seed? They were 5-8 against the RPI top 50, 5-10 on road and neutral courts, stunk up the court ever since they defeated Wisconsin at home. After that signature win, Indiana went 1-5 against teams not named Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn St. That’s unacceptable, and the Hoosiers were better suited for the 10/11 lines rather than the 7 line.

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Egregious Seeding Errors

To be honest, this is where the tournament committee really messed up with this bracket. Neither of us work for CBS, ESPN, or any of the networks who might feel they need to show some allegiance towards the selectors. Instead, we're calling them out, specifically the vague Gary Walters (who interviewed terribly on ESPN), for a variety of reasons. Point number of my complaints with this bracket: egregious seeds. We realize they have to protect certain regions and certain potential matchups, but some of the seedings had no excuse. We’ve already pointed out Indiana’s undeserved 7-seed. Let’s analyze four others that stood out as boneheaded mistakes mere seconds after I heard them.

1) Virginia as a 4-seed

This is a talented team, especially the backcourt duo, that clearly got boosted up 2 or 3 seeds. Sure, they took out Virginia Tech and won a share of the regular-season ACC title. But look at these losses down the stretch (@Miami, @Wake Forest, and in the ACC tournament NC State). Away from John Paul Jones, the 'Hoos were just 3-9. Did we stutter? There is no way this team is deserving of the four-seed. Unfortunately, this will become a recurring theme as we study some of the mistakes below.

2) Butler (AKA Miss November) as a 5-seed

Obviously, this seed was a reward for the Preseason NIT, which was almost 6 months ago. They shared the Horizon regular-season title with Wright State and were beaten again in the conference tournament finale by five to the Raiders. Despite being a fun team to watch and beloved by a lot of the media, Butler should be playing in an 8/9 game.

3) UNLV as a 7-seed

Yes, the Mountain West Conference has struggled in the Big Dance since its formation (5-21). However, the Runnin’ Rebels had an impressive RPI (10^th) and won 11 of their last 13 (with losses against San Diego St. and BYU mixed in-between). Look no further than the two teams listed above to see why the Rebels were shafted with the tough 7-seed.

4) Purdue as a 9-seed

What a surprise! Another Big Ten team getting far too much pub for “good losses”. Their RPI (45) is far from attractive as a 9-seed. If you want to talk about good wins out of conference (Virginia and who else?), then you better discuss the bad ones in-and-out (@Indiana State, @Minnesota, @Michigan). Outside of inconsistent-at-best Big Ten play, I really wonder why Purdue was rewarded over VCU, Creighton, Old Dominion, and some other conference champion teams as well as those already being mentioned as being left out.

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An Overall Poor Job By The Committee

Again, I'm not here to pretend I could do better, but I know people (no, not Joe Lunardi) who actually watched the games and utilized more useful indicators in determining the best 34 at-large teams. With this blog as my podium, I’m also more than in the right to complain and ask the essential question “why?”

Why did Arkansas, according to the tournament committee, merit the final at-large birth [over the likes of Syracuse and Drexel] before the result to the Florida game occurred?

Why did Old Dominion deserve to be in and Drexel be out from the CAA? Why was the CAA given less respect than the A-10 and Horizon League?

Why was Syracuse snubbed from the field entirely? Why did Illinois and Purdue get in with less quality wins, similar futility against the RPI top 50, and weaker road and neutral court production?

Why were only 6 at-large births given to mid-majors after only 8 last year?

Why doesn’t the tournament committee watch the Sunday games in detail?

Was Akron, with that shot-clock discrepancy, completely forgotten with just cause for an at-large bid?

How much will the tournament miss guys like Al Thornton, Cartier Martin, Demetrius Nichols, Frank Elegar, and Mario Boggans (didn’t deserve to be, but an amazing talent)?

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Clement’s Overall Thoughts

I’m not gonna lie, I’m heartbroken that Syracuse didn’t get in. Even more so with Drexel. With allegiances to my favorite team (the Orange) and my favorite conference (the CAA), I know I’m biased. However, I also believe that the Orange (3 wins against the top 25, 10 wins in conference, & .500 record on the road in conference) had enough quality wins to get in (Georgetown by 14, @Marquette handily, Villanova handily, @Providence on senior night), but I also realize our out-of-conference schedule was lacking as well as having losses to @St. John’s, @UCONN, and Drexel. We did lose games to Oklahoma St. and Wichita St., which turned out to be bad losses in retrospect despite both teams playing very well at the time. [Countless teams hung their seeds and selections on similar early victories and tough in-conference defeats.]

The real travesty (wow, I’m agreeing with Dick Vitale) had to be Drexel who had strong wins (wins @Syracuse, @Villanova, and @Creighton in a BracketBusters game) that outweighed the bad losses (@Penn, @Rider, @William & Mary). Yet, they were criticized for conference play – a double standard when thinking of Illinois, Purdue, Stanford, and especially Arkansas.

Staying with the talking heads, Jay Bilas made a major mistake during Bracketology tonight. Losses to VCU and ODU (even a sweep) are not bad losses for Drexel, since both teams are in and deserved to be in the tournament. An ever bigger error was from Doug Gottlieb, who is ten times better on radio than on TV. He claimed Air Force was snubbed. All they had to do was win one of their last four games and they folded.

In the end, I’ll ride my VCU Rams as long as they can go and enjoy the tournament as much as I can. Even with the obvious insight that ‘Cuse & Drexel would’ve struggled in tough first-round matchups, I still hate the fact I’ll spend the majority of this tournament rooting against people rather than rooting for them.

Message to Coach Boeheim: Please schedule tougher matchups out of conference earlier outside of New York.

Message to Bruiser Flint: You did everything you could and still got screwed. Screwed.

Losing My Mind

The last two days are exactly what the mid-majors who couldn't seal feared. Last night, Xavier and Nevada fell in their respective tournaments, allowing for a second seed that may not have existed. At present, this likely puts Stanford and Florida State on the outs. Teams like Old Dominion, Drexel, and Missouri State all had a legitimate shot at earning an at-large bid; however, things have changed in the last 48 hours.

Thought to be amongst the dead, Oklahoma State rose from the ashes to defeat A&M last night. Make no mistake about it, if the Cowboys make the field without winning the automatic bid in the Big XII conference, it will be a travesty. You cannot go 2-8 from February 1st onward and then rediscover form for 3 days only to lose on Sunday to Kansas (even if it's a "good loss"). That's still 5-9 and that's not good enough when you have stronger at-large candidates.

Speaking of the "good loss", I hate that concept during Championship Week. Victories during conference tournaments are already overblown (i.e. overvalued by the committee) as is, so we don't need to pat Kansas State on the rear for losing by six to Kansas on a neutral court. Kansas State will receive heavy consideration, but I feel their resume is not strong enough to garner an at-large bid.

Before I go further, let me extend my congratulatory statement to Arkansas and Stan Heath's short-term job security. They were my last team in the field prior to the SEC tournament and after three more wins, they will be the fifth representative from the SEC.

Meanwhile, in the Big Ten, this is where I'm losing my mind. Indiana's resume looks weaker by the second. The Illini's doesn't look horrible, but 6 of their 11 conference wins are against the bottom three Big Ten squads. They're like the girl who'd receive the "good from far, far from good" label -- but that change with a victory against Wisconsin today. As for the Spartans, they are 3-10 in neutral court and road games, yet they have the 9th-rated SOS nationally and a recent signature win against Wisconsin on their home floor. With respect to Purdue, they are another team who may receive extended consideration due to their grit during two close defeats to Ohio State - it's not something I agree with, but it's something that will happen. Count on it.

But like I said, a lot has changed in the last 48 hours, and as a result, I'm losing my mind. The pieces will continue to fall in place and the story will unfold - just not at the speed that we want it to do so.