Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style [Mid-Week Edition]

Late last night/early this morning, Clement posed a series of questions. Tonight, I provide answers to those questions that surround the NCAA Tournament.

"Quin Snyder Who?"
Blake Griffin goes for 16 and 20, yet the Oklahoma Sooners lose to Missouri (who is 18-0 at home btw). Meanwhile, Kansas loses @ (2-12 in conference) Texas Tech in a relative 19-point laugher.

Q: With that in mind: has Oklahoma ruined their chances at a #1 seed?
A: For starters, I projected Oklahoma was the #6 overall team in the Big XII despite projecting them to win their conference tournament. Why is this the case? They lack the quality wins that the top 3 Big East and top 2 ACC teams have. Not to mention, Oklahoma has often played to the level of their competition, needing to pull away late in games against inferior competition. While "style points" get scrutinized more often in college football, it will be difficult to argue that OU has a stronger resume than the aforementioned teams, as well as Michigan State and Wake Forest.

"Missing in Action"
Marquette thumped Pitt in the opening stretch of the second half - with a 21-5 run out of the gates - but couldn't seal the deal, ultimately losing 90-75 to DeJuan Blair and company (largely due to a 21-2 run of their own).
Q: Is the loss of senior guard and captain Dominic James simply too devastating to take the Golden Eagles seriously come tourney time?
A: Yes. It was already going to be tough sledding for Marquette with James. Without James, Jerel McNeal is a shell of himself. In two road games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, he has shot 11-for-43 from the field.

"Really an Upset?"
Q: Let's make it simple. Whose home loss was more surprising: LSU's to Vanderbilt or Purdue's to Northwestern?
A: Because of their horrible strength of schedule, I have not drank the LSU Kool-Aid yet. Don't get me wrong, they have some quality guard play and Trent Johnson is an excellent Xs and Os coach. That said, the Purdue's loss was more surprising, because I thought they were turning the corner. I thought wrong. That Kevin Coble is some player!

"Rambling Wreck!"
Q: Admit it, after tonight's loss to Georgia Tech...even the staunchest Miami (Florida-style) supporters have to shut their yaps. Right?
A: Absolutely. Miami lost a must-win game against an ill-disciplined yet talented Georgia Tech team. It was a must-win game because the value of their best OOC win is decreasing by the minute. It's not quite over for Miami because bubble teams continue to lose and they can make up plenty of ground during Championship Week.

"It's So Hard To Say Goodbye..."
Q: Is it possible that both SEC stalwarts Kentucky (losing to Georgia) and Florida (losing to Mississippi State) sealed their bubble fates with damaging losses tonight?
A: First off, thank you, Boyz II Men. Second, the Florida/Kentucky tussle this weekend is an at-large bid elimination game. Third, I think it is possible for the winner to have a chance an at-large bid if they make the SEC Tournament Final.

"Mired in the Muck"
Q: Is it possible a mid-major (i.e. Creighton, Siena, St. Mary's, Davidson) was the big winner with SO MANY bubble teams losing in the past 48 hours (Va. Tech, Maryland, Florida, Kentucky, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Kansas State)? Or, was it a major conference squad like Providence, Texas A&M, or Arizona (who does draw Cal tomorrow)?
A: It's too early to say. These smaller tournaments must first happen, but Creighton and Siena are definitely benefitting while St. Mary's and Davidson are not far behind. Other potential winners are Rhode Island and Washington State. Both are peaking at the right time and have resumes that look better with every passing loss by every bubble team.

***Bonus Question***
"Isn't this a FOOTBALL Conference?"
No it isn't a trivial question this time. Minnesota moves to 9-8 in the Big 10 with a HUGE home victory against Wisconsin. Next up: Michigan.
Q: What are we mere mortals to make of Big Ten bubble squads Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern? A simple in/out (as of tonight) would suffice.
A: Here are my thoughts ...
Penn State: IN
Wisconsin: IN
Ohio State: IN
Minnesota: IN
Michigan: OUT
Northwestern: OUT

Thursday FourCast: Bracket & Bubble Banter

by Chris Clement

Since I enjoyed adding “talking points” so much to Pay’s work last night, let’s do it again!

Here’s the Thursday edition. Oh yeah, here’s yesterday’s bracket projections.

1) A-10 Quarterfinals: Dayton/Xavier & Big East Quarterfinals: Villanova/Georgetown
-So maybe both don’t deserve to share the top spot; however, they both face tall mountains to climb against their conference’s regular season champions. While the Wildcats seem a much safer bubble-in squad (a 19-point brutalization over the ‘Cuse) than the Flyers, both might seal their ticket with wins early-Saturday afternoon. This could also mean relax, relief, or pure terror from the likes of Temple, UMass and St. Joe’s.

2) PAC-10 Quarterfinals: Arizona State vs. USC
-Though we have Arizona State in the field, they are not a lock to have their name called on Selection Sunday. This is not an ideal that is shared by all bracketologists. In fact, as often one of the last four in/last four out wins games they are not expected to win, the room for error for the PAC-10's #5 seed may be thinning by the day. Enter O.J. Mayo and the streaking Trojans who have the juice to drive a buzzsaw through the PAC-10 Tournament. While a loss to the Trojans might not throw them on the wrong side of the bubble, might a terrible one combined with Arizona and Oregon booking trips to the semis?

3) PAC-10 Quarterfinals, Take 2: Oregon vs. Washington State
-Could the Ducks become the first PAC-10 squad with a losing record to enter March Madness? With a recent sweep of ASU/Arizona, the Quack Attack (admit it, you like it) might seem as close to a bubble-lock as possible with a win over the Cougars. Lose the game and suddenly bubble-bound Arizona surpasses you for good and potentially 60%, rather than 70%, of the conference is tourney-bound.

4) Bubbly Bubblitis: UNLV/TCU & Miami(FL)/NC State & Florida/Alabama & Georgia/Ole Miss
-Okay, I could go on for hours. Perhaps, I could talk about the entire A-10 tournament. Instead, I selected these four games to break down the situations (or plights) of four types of bubble squads.
UNLV: Take the lead from San Diego and defend home court all the way into March Madness. Without a conference tournament title, you and New Mexico may bump each other into the last four out column.
Miami (FL): You appear more than safe after finishing 5th in the ACC and owning a win over Duke: An embarrassing loss to last year’s ACC Tournament runner-up NC State.
Florida: You now know reaching the SEC Tournament Finals may be the worst you can do. With such a young squad, does Billy “the Kid” have any magic left for the two-time defending champions to cling to?
Ole Miss: You’ve been called out by Pay as a potential sleeper. Who is my team to watch come conference tournament time? Anybody say…Nebraska??? ME!

See you Friday morning…hopefully with a little clarity.

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

5 NCAA Men's Basketball Questions...

Hard to find a more bubble-loaded matchup than Kentucky v. Florida today.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

• 1) Will the Ohio State Buckeyes secure an at-large bid with a win at home over 17th-ranked Michigan state?
• 2) Will Virginia Tech be able to acquire their 10th conference-win, and first against the RPI top-50, today at Clemson?
• 3) If the Terps lose at UVA, is their season essentially over?
• 4) Are BOTH Drake and Illinois State tourney-bound, regardless of today's MVC Championship outcome?
• 5) What will the Big East Tournament shape up as following today's makeup of yesterday's postponed Cincy/UCONN matchup?

***BONUS Question***

• 6) Will perennial CAA fixtures George Mason and VCU secure their third CAA Championship Game matchup in four years?
  

Thursday's Headlines - Spot On

* Late last night, Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart received permission from the University of Florida to speak with Billy Donovan about their coaching vacancy. Donovan is scheduled to meet with Florida AD Jeremy Foley today and then plans to vacation in the Dominican Republic, according to ESPN's Andy Katz. ESPN and CBS Sportsline (no, they aren't the only two sports websites I visit) are now reporting that Billy Donovan is staying put and that he will be in talks for an extension at Florida. Now, was I right or was I right? How many hours will it be until we hear about Rick Barnes or Billy Gillispie being asked if they're interested?

This Donovan decision should have little to no bearing on the decisions to be made by Horford, Noah, Brewer, and Green.

* West Virginia is hot on the heels of Kansas State head coach Bob Huggins, who calls the state home and played for the Mountaineers during the mid-1970s. In the eyes of many, Huggins accepting the job is contingent upon whether he will be able to take top recruit Michael Beasley with him.

* Butler has its new coach. Brad Stevens, 30, served as an assistant at Butler for six years under Todd Lickliter and Thad Matta. The Bulldogs return three of its top scorers (AJ Graves, Mike Green, and Pete Campbell) from the squad that made the Sweet 16 and gave eventual national champion Florida its stiffest test.

* Louis Orr is back in the head coaching ranks at Bowling Green. This is the guy who took a worthless Seton Hall team last season to the tournament, albeit in controversial fashion with a very low RPI and 40+ point losses, and proceeded to get whooped by Wichita State. As a reward for his efforts, he got canned.

On the PHSports Docket
* NFL Mock Draft
* NCAA basketball coaching carousel
* NBA Draft early entries

March Madness & the National Title Game: Closing Thoughts

Well, it should come as no surprise to any serious college basketball fans that the Florida Gators took home the 2007 National Championship. A lot of office pools will be checking tie-breakers as the chalk, meaning the Gators of course, stood firm.

By now, you should know the majority of their accolades: first repeat champions since Duke in 91-92, first ever starting 5 to repeat, and the first SEC team to repeat since Kentucky back at the half-century mark in the 1900s.

What you will soon know, being that I watched every second of the game so I could sound like I know what I was talking about, were some of my other tournament and NCAA-related observations. I’ll call them my 2007 NCAA Tournament Top Ten. Clichéd…yet simplistic enough to work.

#1. RE-PEAT
-Picked by the majority of pundits, myself included, this Gator squad was the most talented team from start to finish this season. Sure they encountered their typical SEC-hiccups, yet the Gators always played their best game against their best opponents. While some felt the tournament selection committee rewarded them too highly, perhaps solely on the merits of being the defending champs, with the easiest region and the overall #1-seed…the Gators took out two of the best teams the nation had to offer once they left the South Regional [UCLA & Ohio State].

#2. Fab Five
-The new “Fab Five” took out the “Thad Five”, never allowing their lead to dip any closer than 6 points in the final 30+ minutes of the game. While the Buckeyes never let things get out of control, Florida never seemed to sweat or shift into any sort of panic mode. Al Horford was a master in the blocks, Corey Brewer had an electric first-half on both sides of the ball, Taurean Green hit two daggers to restore double-digit leads as he paced the Gators throughout the second-half with steady & heady play, and Lee Humphrey excelled from behind the arc (as he always seems to do). Even the guy’s ridiculous air ball lead to a pivotal three-point play (typical, isn’t it?) As for Mr. Noah, I’ll handle him a little later. And it won’t be very kind.

#3. #1 Pick
-Anyone who doesn’t want to draft Greg Oden at #1…is a moron. I love Kevin Durant as much as anyone, but you NEVER pass up the opportunity to draft a backend center…no less one WHO WANTS TO PLAY CENTER. Tonight’s loss by the Buckeyes has ZERO to do with Greg Oden. I won’t hear any arguments about him lingering back on top-of-the-key screens either, as Buckeyes guards never fought through them enough and Thad Matta obviously had that idea planned (which is surprising with the three-point shooting prowess of the Gators). You want numbers from a freshman? 25 points [10-15 fgs], 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He had several ferocious dunks and several monster blocks (the block on Brewer would’ve given Gus Johnson a hernia and a heart attack). Unfortunately, while it wasn’t his intent, a lot of the blocks ended up back in Gator hands and led to eventual crippling buckets. Let’s not forget the 38+ minutes he logged either. Try that at 7-foot and nearly 270 lbs. Greg Oden will leave Columbus with nothing to be ashamed of. I will however be calling out his teammates…next.

#4. The “Others”
-No, this isn’t Lost. Instead, it’s me calling out a few choice-Buckeyes. While I understand this team is young, several key Buckeye players were completely absent from the world’s greatest stage. Yes, the limelight often gets the best of a lot of people. Especially since your first time is typically your only time. Ask Francisco Garcia, Jeff Green, Joey Graham, and a few others what the Final Four can do to you. Jamar Butler just plain stunk up the Georgia Dome tonight. He shot 1-7 from the field, with only a late prayer going in, and was nowhere near the inside of the net on any of his deep shot attempts. His defense was consistently lagging (that’s being friendly too) and I felt Matta made a key mistake not inserting Lighty or Cook, even for a brief stint, earlier in the game. Ron Lewis penetrated well and made some nice transition dunks, but was absent the entire Final Four. He never worked off of a screen and seemed unable to square up to the hoop. I was thoroughly disappointed in the 5^th-year senior’s performance these past two games. Othella Hunter could use some tip drills…but he’s young and a little soft still. While Mike Conley Jr. dodged early foul trouble, he definitely got a peak into what a point guard should be for his team from Taurean Green (as I noted in my preview, ahem). Conley Jr., whether he stays or goes, will be an incredible talent…but was clearly the second best PG on the court tonight.

#5. Backing Down
-There are ways to effectively post-up and then back down your opponent. Want to see how to do it? Watch Larry Johnson at UNLV in the early 90s. Watch Sean May at UNC (especially that title-game performance vs. Illinois). Watch Will Thomas, last season, at George Mason. You bring your body into your defender, absorb the pressure, wait for them to take a step back, and then lean into their body and balance your way into a 3-4 foot tip-in or jump-hook shot. Al Horford doesn’t do this. He backs you down, and I admire the physicality, and drops a shoulder deep into you. Chris Richard lowers the boom. Noah is afraid to do it when you realize you can stop him by holding your ground. Of course the refs didn’t decide this game, but after seeing plenty of highlights (and talking to Pay), the Butler game definitely showed why Horford will have to develop a new back-down method in the NBA. You can’t even do that against a bench-big in the pros.

#6. Coaching
-We don’t talk much about coaches at PHSports and I’m sticking to that…mostly. Except that Thad Matta has done a masterful job recruiting at Ohio State and has the program a year or two away from being that consistent top-1o performer they were this year and most of last. As for Billy Donovan…stay at Florida. Kentucky is enticing, but it isn’t worth leaving what you have in Florida. Big men are easy to pluck in the Sunshine State and you have job security for life. For life. While Kentucky’s numbers and legacy are daunting, Donovan isn’t likely to depart from Gator-nation anytime soon.

#7. Joakim Noah
-#1 pick last year? A fool for not going? No. He’ll make his money and he has two national titles. Forget all the degree talk though. Please. As for Noah’s skills, I’m not sure what the hoopla was all about. He has zero offensive game, outside of tip-ins and screaming transition dunks. He rebounds pretty well, but not any better than a Paul Millsap (2006 2^nd-rounder) or Dominic McGuire (2007 late-1^st rounder, in my opinion). Sure, he’s got a lot of heart and loves to win…but he won’t be an NBA talent. He won’t develop an outside shot, as Horford has begun to do quite well, and lacks any physicality (there’s that word again). He cowered away from Oden and won’t bang with the big boys. It was a lot of fun blocking shots from George Mason and a softer UCLA team (don’t act like they were intensely physical last year). Ironically enough (especially with Julian Wright still sticking as a Jayhawk…for now) it seems that Noah could be drafted anywhere from #3 to #7. What can I say to that? I don’t like. A quick peak back into draft talk…my roommate calls Hansbrough the next Mark Madsen (a little ridiculous, although he has called so many people its unreal, including…pre-draft for all of them–Monta Ellis, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Manu Ginobili, and Nenad Kristic– says he’s “like a Varejao, minus the hustle and lot more growl.”). I’ll say 8 and 5 for a shorter than 6-year career. Hate? SURE!

#8. One Shinning Moment
-Overall grade for the tournament: D. Hate? Nope. Name the great moments? Maynor over Duke. Lewis over Xavier. Jeff Green over Vandy. Florida’s repeat. Georgetown’s comeback. Maybe for half of those. No true buzzer-beat, no true Cinderella, inconsistent refing, sloppy CBS coverage in-studio and behind the mic, and a real lack of superstar play. The Final Four was a relative bore with a so-so title game. They can’t all be great…but the last few years haven’t been much fun. We all love March Madness…yet it hasn’t been so maddening as of late.

#9. Top 5
-Memphis selects Greg Oden. Boston picks Kevin Durant. Milwaukee selects Joakim Noah. Charlotte takes Brendan Wright. Phoenix, via Atlanta, steals Al Horford. There’s your top 5, as I see it, right now. Julian Wright can muck this up quickly.

#10. Final Thoughts
-No, I won’t be lame enough to make a 2008 prediction. I did take Florida over OSU in the pre-season…but what does that mean anyways? {I had UCLA and UNC rounding out my useless pre-season Final Four). I had Florida as my national champ on my sheet of integrity (beating UCLA and UNC, who would’ve beaten A&M). In the end, it’s been a solid 2007 for college basketball. Conference tournaments were pretty solid, the VCU-upset was amazing for me, and Selection Sunday (despite no Cuse somehow) was a lot of drama to build up to. A lot of props needs to go to Pay for his amazing work prepping brackets, running play-by-play, and bringing home rock solid analysis. It takes a lot of hard work to make up for my ranting and rambling.

This closes out my college basketball talk for the next few months.

Nevertheless, plenty of good stuff looms: NFL Draft, NBA Playoffs, MLB kicking off, and the NBA Draft. Not to mention a certain Tradition Unlike Any Other..

Until next time…

Top College Basketball Recruiting Classes for 2007

Tonight marks the culmination of events that began in mid-October when teams began practicing with one goal in mind: win the national championship. For Florida or Ohio State, it will become a reality. For everyone else, they can look forward to next year and the fruits of their seemingly ceaseless recruiting pitches.

Data from Rivals.com

1. Kansas St.
***** Michael Beasley, PF, 6-9 235 (1)
***** Bill Walker, SF, 6-6 220 (7)
*** Dominique Sutton, SF, 6-4 195 (97)
*** Fred Brown, SG, 6-3 185
*** Jacob Pullen, PG, 6-1 175

Next year, Kansas State will not be in the discussion as a bubble team, because they’ll have top recruit Michael Beasley playing the 4 for them. Bill Walker should be able to return from injury and the Wildcats should return most of its players. Not to mention, Bill Huggins will have another year to mold his players to his likening.

2. Syracuse Orange
***** Donte Green, SF, 6-9 217 (10)
***** Johnny Flynn, PG, 5-11 170 (22)
**** Antonio Jardine, SG, 6-1 180 (57)
**** Rick Jackson, PF, 6-8 235 (95)
*** Sean Williams, C, 6-11 220

The Orange reloads at every position, with Flynn and Green leading the recruiting class. Syracuse will need leadership at the guard and forward, as they lose crucial starters in both areas. The maturation process of Paul Harris may play a big role in determining how far these Orange may go next season.

3. USC Trojans
***** OJ Mayo, PG, 6-5 215 (6)
***** Davon Jefferson, SF, 6-7 190 (15 – class of 2006)
*** Leonard Washington, SF, 6-6 225 (108)
*** Venoy Overton, PG, 6-0 165
*** Marcus Simmons, SF, 6-4 175

USC was 10 minutes and a couple of fresh bodies away from upending #1 seed North Carolina in the East region. Next year, that excuse won’t apply, as the Trojans have reloaded with speed and skill. Note to Tim Floyd: Keep OJ Mayo on the court and out of trouble.

4. Arizona Wildcats
***** Jerryd Bayless, SG, 6-3 193 (9)
***** Jamelle Horne, SF, 6-7 205 (19)
*** Laval Lucas-Perry, PG, 6-1 191 (128)
*** Zane Johnson, SF, 6-6 200 (132)
*** Alex Jacobson, C, 7-1 223

Lute Olsen is just dying for leadership. He didn’t get it with Mustapha Shakur and he’s hoping that Bayless is more than a one-and-done player. Horne will immediately step into the Marcus Williams role, who’s more than likely NBA-bound. With that said, will Jacobson fill the shoes of Ivan Radenovic, who was by far, the most consistent player on last year’s underachieving roster.

5. Florida Gators
***** Nick Calathes, PG, 6-5 185 (13)
**** Chandler Parsons, SF, 6-8 190 (21)
**** Alex Tyus, PF, 6-8 210 (47)
**** Adam Allen, SF, 6-6 185 (68)

With this recruiting class, you can expect a mass exodus from the Florida player ranks. If Billy Donovan jettisons for Lexington, you can expect at least a couple of de-commits to occur. Meanwhile, the Gators are still chasing 5-star big man Patrick Patterson. Should the Gators land Patterson, they’ll have to be considered a top 3 recruiting class.

ON THE PERIPHERY

Ohio State: It should be no shock to anyone that Thad Matta can recruit. Knowing Greg Oden is very likely to ascend to the NBA ranks this summer, Matta signed Kosta Koufos, a 7-footer with skill who is a 5-star recruit. Matta signed four other young men, all of whom can fight for minutes upon arrival in Columbus.

Purdue: Knowing that his squad lacks size, Matt Painter signed four versatile 4-star recruits, three of which are 6’8” and taller.

Duke: Coach K must’ve known that his team would have scoring problems this season, because he’s snapped up Kyle Singler, who’s considered the most complete recruit entering college basketball next season. After a year’s hiatus, Duke gets a commit from the nation’s top white player. Taylor King can light it up from deep and Nolan Smith provides some badly-needed ball-handling skills.

Indiana: No matter how he got him (google "Gregg Doyel" + "Kelvin Sampson" + "Gordon" and you're golden), Kelvin Sampson landed Eric Gordon, the nation’s #2 recruit according to Rivals. Gordon should make sure that Indiana scores more than 13 points in a half versus UCLA. Sampson also signed imposing center Eli Holman, Jordan Crawford (PG), Jamarcus Ellis (JUCO-SG), and Brandon McGee. Can the talent get Sampson back into the Sweet 16 for the first time in what seems like forever?

The Ultimate National Championship Preview: Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
by Chris Clement

To be honest, I’m not very excited about tonight’s national title game. Sure the “fan” in me wants to be pumped (reminding myself that this is far from a shoe-in victory for the defending champion Gators). Ironically enough, such a point was vastly proven by the same two schools, just different squads, a little over three months ago (when the Gators football team decimated the seemingly outgunned, outhustled and overrated Buckeyes). Unfortunately, that game was a stinker after the first two possessions and this one may follow a similar suit.

So below, I’m going to mark down a couple thoughts, a little analysis, a prediction or two, and perhaps, something that doesn’t resemble soft whimpering and gentle crying…all for you.

We’ll call it my five keys for a good game…or an eventual blow-out.

Oden’s Fouls

It’s too bad we can’t give Greg Oden ten fouls. Perhaps, Al Horford could be called for an offensive foul once or twice as he backs down people like a lumberjack tackling a redwood. Ditto for Noah and his phantom pivot feet and the lack of any traveling calls against them. One could say the same for Conley Jr., often neglected for being punished for constantly palming the ball (then again, who doesn’t these days?) or Jamar Butler’s often wild and erratic reaches on defense. Either way, Greg Oden can’t get into foul trouble on Monday Night. He might be able to pick up that second foul in the first half, but it had better be in the closing minutes when he needs to rest. With Noah/Horford/Richard out there, Thad Matta can’t survive long with guys like Hunter and Terwilliger trying to man-up against the Gator big men.

Can Oden stay out of foul trouble and be effective against the Gators' frontline?
Courtesy: Celebopedia

Guard Play

Taurean Green is the heart and soul of this Gator championship squad. If you disagree, then I doubt your validity as a college expert. While the big men and Corey Brewer get all the accolades and Lee Humphrey is destroying nets around the country, when Green is on, the Gators are great. Whether its dishing out assists in traffic, hitting key threes as teams attempt rallies against his Gators, or stifling defense in the half-court trap, Green makes these Gators go. Mike Conley Jr. will be a much better pro, but he will see everything a point guard should mean to his team on Monday Night. Talk to William Avery about what Khalid El-Amin showed him back in '99. No, it wasn’t paternity suits, but calculated and team-oriented guard play. As for the other Buckeyes, Jamar Butler must continue consistent inside/outside play and be prepared to run himself ragged on Monday night. Lee Humphrey isn’t very athletic, so there is a chance to keep an eye on him. But even a brief hesitation, and the ball is suddenly through the net. Be physical with him and get him thinking about a few early misses…and he becomes a different player. He won’t put the ball on the floor nearly as often as he should. While Green struggled despite a Gator victory, the same was true – much more surprisingly – for Buckeye 5^th-year senior Ron Lewis. Let me make no beefs about it: Ron Lewis cannot struggle on Monday night. No chance.

Green: Must re-establish form that got Gators to Atlanta
Courtesy: Rivals.com

Coaching

I try not to publicize them about too much, but Donovan was as savvy a coach as the Final Four had to offer (3-0 in national semifinal). He has his team in the perfect mindset. They know they are the best team on the floor and their task is to remind you of that each and every time. These guys know how important repeating sounds. What’s more important is winning the championship this year. As for the Buckeyes, Matta has gotten every last inch out of a young, talented team. While he can’t teach Oden in less than 48 hours how to avoid foul trouble, we will see how effectively he can work the refs by balancing calls made – or not made – on the bigs of both teams. That alone may decide his team’s fate more than their play.

Is a repeat in the cards? Is Billy D off to Lexington?
Courtesy: CBS4, Viacom

December 23^rd, 2006

It doesn’t matter. Sure, Florida decimated the youthful Buckeyes 86-60 in Gainesville. But neither team will turn to that tape anytime soon. Horford played – when every media report said he was out (typical) – and Oden has barely walked on the court by that point. The Buckeyes are much more confident and a more grounded team. The scariest thing though is this - Florida is better. Much better. The Gators don’t go deep, but they’re deeper now than they were then. Either way, even if Florida spanks the Buckeyes on Monday night, it won’t be because of December 23^rd, 2006.

Conley Jr.: Has gotten just a bit better since December 23
Courtesy: Indianapolis Star

X-Factors

Something unexpected usually needs to go right for a team – or wrong for their opponent – when a national title is delivered. As a 'Cuse fan, Kueth Duany’s early double-digits were an unwelcomed sign that aided us to an early 18-point lead. The same could be said for the play of Anderson Hunt, 29 points in the ’90 title win, that led to his Final Four MOP award for the Runnin’ Rebs of UNLV. Ditto for Mike Dunleavy’s 21 points in their 2001 title-victory over Arizona and so on and so forth. All of these guys were talented – some more than others, of course – yet all of them made unexpected impacts. Who could these new people be tonight? I’m not going to try and guess. Except for mentioning one name, David Lighty of Ohio State.

Alright, that’s all I got. I’m hoping for a good game…but not crossing my fingers. I’ll say Florida by a dozen-or-so right now, while rooting heavily for the Buckeyes to return the upset to the Gators side.

If Florida does win, that’d be both collegiate championships that really matter to most – basketball and football – and the first back-to-back titles since Duke (which would be a blessing in itself to push aside).

Either way, I'm hopeful that it’ll be more fun than it appears it’ll be.

I’ll throw out some reactions on Tuesday one way or another…so until then.

Final Four Previews
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi

National Semifinal #1
The Ultimate Preview: #1. Ohio State vs. #2. Georgetown

The first national semifinal of the night has Thad Matta’s youthful and extremely athletic Buckeyes matched up against John Thompson III’s disciplined and chiseled Hoyas. It’s the type of matchup that any college basketball fan should be truly excited about. Why? Let’s take a deeper look into the Four Factors that make this a game that a can’t-miss matchup.

Stories
Georgetown is just 25 years removed from Fred Brown’s errant pass to James Worthy in the closing seconds of the ’82 title game. The Buckeyes, despite an appearance in ’99, haven’t been in a National Title game since 1968. Add to that who is coaching, John Thompson’s son, and that a Ewing, Patrick Ewing Jr., is on the court for Georgetown. The last-second shot against Vandy, with more than a little controversy attached to it, was perhaps the talk of last weekend’s games. That was the case until their 10-point comeback in the final seven minutes against the East’s top-seed, the North Carolina Tar Heels. The return to dominance, in only three short years under Thompson III, is a thing to behold out of Georgetown this season. As for the Buckeyes, they brought in the most hyped freshman in years [Greg Oden], and for the most part, delivered time and time again as a team. Their amazing comeback against Xavier, thanks in large part to the clutch shooting of Ron Lewis, was followed up by exciting games against Tennessee (included both a 20-point comeback and a last-second Oden block) and a nailbiter, of sorts, against a brash, hungry Memphis squad. Both teams earned their tickets to Atlanta and both teams, at least in the back of their minds, have to be thinking about cutting down another net before they leave.

Superstars
Every game needs high-profile names, like it or not. Georgetown might have a Thompson on the bench and a Ewing on the court, but it’s all about Roy Hibbert and Big East Player of the Year Jeff Green. At 7-2, Hibbert is the latest Hoya big-man to talk about. His footwork has improved mightily over his college career and he often poses an indomitable force on the inside block, both offensively and defensively. Watching him play inside, with four fouls, against the Heels frontline last week was a thing of beauty. As for Green, his inside-outside game is among the best in the entire country. Walking violation or not, his play to beat Vandy in the closing seconds was one of pure strength and skill. He can beat you from the outside or put the ball on the court and create his own high percentage shot. Don’t underestimate what that takes on the college level. As for the Buckeyes, Greg Oden is a man among men, even at 19 years old. The 1^st-team All American has avoided stints of foul trouble to make big plays on both sides of the court. Ironically, he may pose an even bigger threat when he’s off the court, as teams often panic to find the best possible offensive scheme to take advantage of the shot-blocker’s absence. Alongside him are plenty of talented players, but none more than high-school teammate and freshman point guard Mike Conley Jr. Not the best shooter on the team, Conley Jr. is one of the nation’s most balanced, quickest, and poised backcourt penetraters. His vision is spectacular and he always seems to rise to the occasion, often as a calming influence, when his team needs him the most.

Winning Streaks
The Big Ten conference and post-season champion Ohio State Buckeyes haven’t lost since a January 9^th visit to Wisconsin, 21-in-a-row win in fact, which included two wins over Wisconsin, two wins over Tennessee, beating Memphis, and slew of other tough conference opponents. Idle number or not, 21-wins is an impressive feat for the overall #1 team in the country. They’ve avoided several near disasters and are only stronger because of it. As for Georgetown, the Big East conference and post-season champions, have won 19 of 20 [only stumble being a 14 point loss at Syracuse, which sure does look good right now for the Orange, thank you] which included that comeback win against North Carolina (in which Thompson III never panicked), two wins against Pitt, and several other notable victories. Both of these teams are playing the best basketball of their seasons just at the right time. Neither of these coaches need to remind these guys the importance of sticking to their game plan and playing within themselves. Teams who win this much already have that luxury.

X-Factors
You might be surprised to hear this, but Ohio State can win without Greg Oden dominating. Georgetown has also survived with Hibbert being in foul trouble throughout big games. Not surprisingly, both big men could spend heavy minutes nursing foul trouble this game. So it’s no surprise Georgetown would look to their top player, Jeff Green, to anchor them. And he most likely will. Ditto with Ohio State, turning to their primary ballhandler Mike Conley Jr., for aid and leadership. And he most likely will deliver. Yet, it is the true role players who will decide this game. For the Buckeyes, that means that Ron Lewis needs to stroke more than a couple idle threes from behind the arc. This task is gonna be a mighty challenge when you consider Georgetown has held Vandy/UNC to 14 of 48 from behind the 3-point line in their last two contests. Jamar Butler, on a scoring rampage as of late, is going to have to hit open shots and get to the line early and often. That’ll be tough mainly due to the suffocating Georgetown defense, experts at keeping such players outside of the lane. Daequan Cook will have to often pass up deep shots that aren’t high percentage; instead, kicking it out and looking to find teammates for better opportunities. It’ll be interesting to see if it’s just too tempting to pass up rare outside opportunities, even from 23+-feet, for the hybrid-shooter. Things aren’t much easier for the Hoya role players easier. Jonathan Wallace and DaJuan Summers have enjoyed mostly-stellar shooting this tournament, but have shown a tendency at times to go cold during the season. Jessie Sapp will certainly have a size advantage over the Buckeye PGs, but will his lack of true speed come to hurt him in late stretches? Patrick Ewing Jr. has improved his play steadily throughout the year, but is he ready to do all the little things – which may include hardly ever taking a shot – on the stage his father once dominated three times in a stellar career? A lot to think about for coaches Matta and Thompson III this weekend.

In the end, I’m ecstatic for tip-off to begin. I would enjoy seeing both teams win and just want one heck of a game. Predictions can wait until Monday night. Tonight’s just about having fun. But I do have one thing to look for…

Ohio State will win if…it shoots better than 35% behind the 3-point line.

Georgetown will win if…Roy Hibbert posts a double-double in 30+-minutes of play.

Now onto the night’s second national semi-final.

National Semifinal #2
The Ultimate Preview: #1. Florida vs. #2. UCLA

In the second national semifinal, we'll have a rematch of last year's championship game. A year later, Ben Howland has officially brought UCLA back to the powerhouse ranks and Billy Donovan has three Final Four appearances and a National Championship before the age of 42. A year removed from the national title, Billy Donovan is fighting off rumors about returning to Kentucky as a head coach, where he was an assistant for Rick Pitino during their glory years in the mid-1990s. Either way, he's cashing in come next week guaranteed.

Stories
Last season, Florida's shocking championship run culminated a full-scale beatdown of storied program UCLA, 73-57. In that game, Joakim Noah and Al Horford posterized Ryan Hollins and whomever else the Bruins decided to put down all night in the blocks. Corey Brewer never let Arron Afflalo out of his sight and Jordan Farmar was deemed useless. When UCLA shot the ball, they were one-and-done.

This year, UCLA is a stronger offensive, but questions remain about their ability to score points regularly. Josh Shipp has taken up a portion of the scoring load while Darren Collison continues to be a very efficient scorer. However, his 7 turnover/1 assist game last Saturday should be something to forget about moving forward. Unlike last year's run to the Final Four, Florida has had the target on their chest all season, but this has not gotten in the way of their courage and resolve.

Superstars
For Florida, one immediately thinks of the three guys who would have been drafted as lottery picks last year - Noah, Horford, and Brewer. Nevertheless, the catalyst for the Gators is none other than Taurean Green, who has been Florida's leading scorer in the NCAA Tournament. He's also rescued the Gators out of some binds, as they trailed in the second half against both Purdue and Butler. The point guard was crucial to both comebacks and eventual slayings of the Hoosier-state upstarts. Don't get me wrong, he'll do his best to include Noah and Horford early and often in order to exploit an obvious mismatch in the paint.

The Bruins feature AP All-America first team selection Arron Afflalo, who finally had *that* game against Kansas. Afflalo scored 24 points on 10-for-15 shooting from the field, including three from behind the arc. Also, the Bruins have the aforementioned Collison, who is undersized, but one of the best perimeter defenders in the nation. He will drive, penetrate, and look to dish to the big men, but he's not afraid to get fouled. More importantly, Collison won't be afraid to take the big shots from 3-point range (46.3%). His dagger heave from behind the arc proved costly in the win over Kansas, and Bill Self will have nightmares for years on end.

X-Factors
Can UCLA force turnovers and turn them into points?
UCLA has proven throughout the season and during the tournament that when they can force turnovers, they will turn them into points. Kansas was made a national example last Saturday. Let's not forget the flipside of this argument. UCLA committed 24 turnovers last Saturday. If that's the case, then Florida will be game-planning for Monday with a half left to play. As for Florida, they kept Oregon in the game on Sunday by committing a bevy of careless turnovers. UCLA needs to turn Florida over early and often.

Florida
v. Purdue 15 turnovers
v. Butler 11 turnovers
v. Oregon 18 turnovers

Three pointers?
Florida from behind the arc
v. Purdue 5-18
v. Butler 8-19
v. Oregon 11-24

If Taurean Green begins to hit threes like he did in the Butler and Oregon games, UCLA has very little room for error. Meanwhile, Lee Humphrey is back to his old self, hitting 7 threes against in the regional final. For UCLA, they'll need Shipp and Roll to hit open shots in order to take pressure off of Collison and Afflalo, who will have their hands full. It should be noted though that Florida's increasing reliance on the deep ball may be their Achilles' Heel because UCLA is a better rebounding team than their size indicates.

UCLA production on the frontline
The real media is hyping Noah and Horford, and you can't really blame them. I watched last year's championship game and they seemed to dunk on every other possession. This year, they're not as dominant, but both are very good, especially Horford down the stretch. I would argue though that UCLA's frontline is stronger defensively than last year; moreover, they know their role. 4 guys (Mata, Mbah a Moute, Aboya, Keefe) with 20 fouls - provide help-side defense, rebound, box out, and be in position to attack the rim off of dribble penetration. There is no equivocation whatsoever.

Point Guard Leadership
If Florida wins the national championship on Monday night, look no further than the point guard. Brewer's been off, Humphrey was off until the regional final, Noah's been ordinary, and the bench has been non-existent. Green has hit the streak three-pointers and settled down the Gators whenever the opposition has gone on runs.

UCLA will win if... they cause 20 turnovers and hit open shots in the second half

Florida will win if... they stick to their guns and limit UCLA to one shot on every possession

NCAA Tournament Performance (by conference) - From 16 to 4

**Before I get into the meat of this post, I found this glorious clip on YouTube. All Madden ’92 lovers will have nostalgia tingling down their spine. Check it out.**

In the first weekend, the chalk held for the most part. In the second weekend, the chalk held almost entirely. The only exceptions were not even upsets with UCLA defeating Kansas (in California, mind you) and Georgetown upending North Carolina in overtime. With regard to UCLA’s win in California, I think they would’ve won on any court on Saturday night, save Phog Allen. The stronger in-game tacticians won in both of those games.

Conference (in order by RPI rank)	Actual Record	Exp. Record	Actual vs. Exp. Diff.	Sweet 16 teams	Elite 8 Teams	Final Four Teams
ACC	7-7	11-6	-2.5	1	1	0
SEC	9-4	7-4	+1.0	3	1	1
Pac-10	10-5	9-6	+1.0	3	2	1
Big Ten	8-5	8-5	0.0	1	1	1
Big East	7-5	8-6	0.0*	2	1	1
Missouri Valley	2-2	2-2	0	1	0	0
Big XII	6-4	8-3	-1.5	2	1	0
Mountain West	2-2	2-2	0.0	1	0	0
Western Athletic	1-2	1-2	0	0	0	0
Atlantic-10	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0
Horizon	2-2	1-2	+0.5	1	0	0
Colonial	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0

* higher winning percentage for actual record

The chart above demonstrates the poor performance by the ACC relative to their regular season accolades. To send the most teams (7) and only send one to the Sweet 16 is weak. This marks the second straight year in which the ACC had a 1-seed that failed to make it to the Final Four.

For the second straight year, the SEC outperforms its expectations, but not quite like last year. Had Vanderbilt and Tennessee won games that they should have, that would’ve meant that half of the SEC East was in the Elite 8. That’s crazy good. Does it beg the question of including Georgia over Arkansas? Not at all. Georgia wasn’t the same team after losing one of its leading scorers.

The story though should be the Pac-10, who was the only to send two teams to the Elite 8. Given the season previews from real media outlets that have access to first-hand information, I expected 3-4 bids this season. They’re also the perennial doormat during the NCAA tournament and a constant focus of criticism whenever a representative (usually Stanford) falls as a 1-seed during the first weekend. In a 10-team league, five teams were no-doubters and only one came into question (Stanford) when it came to Selection Sunday. UCLA and Oregon took care of business while USC was 1-2 contributors away from fending off Carolina in the round of 16.

As for the Final 4, I had Texas A&M instead of Ohio State, so I’d like to thank Memphis for playing its best game in two years in the Sweet 16 matchup. I’m obligated to picking Georgetown versus Florida, because that’s what I had in my bracket.

Given the circumstances, I can see UCLA defeat Florida, because the Gators have needed excellent long distance shooting to get where they are right now. Florida has had a lot of unforced errors on offense. If the Bruins stick to their guns and play stellar perimeter defense, annoy the big men, and score points, then I like their chances of playing on Monday.

With little margin for error, the Ohio State/Georgetown game is a pick’em. I’ve characterized the Buckeyes as lucky all tournament long, but they’re obviously talented, well-coached and don’t give up when they’re down. They also just played their most complete offensive game of the season. Let’s just say that it won’t be a repeat performance. Who will stop Jeff Green? Is Cook, Hunter, or Lighty up to the challenge? At this point, Jeff Green may be the most lethal player in the tournament because of his ability to affect games in so many different ways, even when he’s not scoring points.