Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style [Mid-Week Edition]

Late last night/early this morning, Clement posed a series of questions. Tonight, I provide answers to those questions that surround the NCAA Tournament.

"Quin Snyder Who?"
Blake Griffin goes for 16 and 20, yet the Oklahoma Sooners lose to Missouri (who is 18-0 at home btw). Meanwhile, Kansas loses @ (2-12 in conference) Texas Tech in a relative 19-point laugher.

Q: With that in mind: has Oklahoma ruined their chances at a #1 seed?
A: For starters, I projected Oklahoma was the #6 overall team in the Big XII despite projecting them to win their conference tournament. Why is this the case? They lack the quality wins that the top 3 Big East and top 2 ACC teams have. Not to mention, Oklahoma has often played to the level of their competition, needing to pull away late in games against inferior competition. While "style points" get scrutinized more often in college football, it will be difficult to argue that OU has a stronger resume than the aforementioned teams, as well as Michigan State and Wake Forest.

"Missing in Action"
Marquette thumped Pitt in the opening stretch of the second half - with a 21-5 run out of the gates - but couldn't seal the deal, ultimately losing 90-75 to DeJuan Blair and company (largely due to a 21-2 run of their own).
Q: Is the loss of senior guard and captain Dominic James simply too devastating to take the Golden Eagles seriously come tourney time?
A: Yes. It was already going to be tough sledding for Marquette with James. Without James, Jerel McNeal is a shell of himself. In two road games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, he has shot 11-for-43 from the field.

"Really an Upset?"
Q: Let's make it simple. Whose home loss was more surprising: LSU's to Vanderbilt or Purdue's to Northwestern?
A: Because of their horrible strength of schedule, I have not drank the LSU Kool-Aid yet. Don't get me wrong, they have some quality guard play and Trent Johnson is an excellent Xs and Os coach. That said, the Purdue's loss was more surprising, because I thought they were turning the corner. I thought wrong. That Kevin Coble is some player!

"Rambling Wreck!"
Q: Admit it, after tonight's loss to Georgia Tech...even the staunchest Miami (Florida-style) supporters have to shut their yaps. Right?
A: Absolutely. Miami lost a must-win game against an ill-disciplined yet talented Georgia Tech team. It was a must-win game because the value of their best OOC win is decreasing by the minute. It's not quite over for Miami because bubble teams continue to lose and they can make up plenty of ground during Championship Week.

"It's So Hard To Say Goodbye..."
Q: Is it possible that both SEC stalwarts Kentucky (losing to Georgia) and Florida (losing to Mississippi State) sealed their bubble fates with damaging losses tonight?
A: First off, thank you, Boyz II Men. Second, the Florida/Kentucky tussle this weekend is an at-large bid elimination game. Third, I think it is possible for the winner to have a chance an at-large bid if they make the SEC Tournament Final.

"Mired in the Muck"
Q: Is it possible a mid-major (i.e. Creighton, Siena, St. Mary's, Davidson) was the big winner with SO MANY bubble teams losing in the past 48 hours (Va. Tech, Maryland, Florida, Kentucky, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Kansas State)? Or, was it a major conference squad like Providence, Texas A&M, or Arizona (who does draw Cal tomorrow)?
A: It's too early to say. These smaller tournaments must first happen, but Creighton and Siena are definitely benefitting while St. Mary's and Davidson are not far behind. Other potential winners are Rhode Island and Washington State. Both are peaking at the right time and have resumes that look better with every passing loss by every bubble team.

***Bonus Question***
"Isn't this a FOOTBALL Conference?"
No it isn't a trivial question this time. Minnesota moves to 9-8 in the Big 10 with a HUGE home victory against Wisconsin. Next up: Michigan.
Q: What are we mere mortals to make of Big Ten bubble squads Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern? A simple in/out (as of tonight) would suffice.
A: Here are my thoughts ...
Penn State: IN
Wisconsin: IN
Ohio State: IN
Minnesota: IN
Michigan: OUT
Northwestern: OUT

2008 NCAA Projections - March 10, 2008

Christmas: Easily one of Philly's finest

Credit: Fans Only

(Editor's Note: This bracket does not reflect the result of the St. Mary's - San Diego game)

Last week, we held off on putting UNC as the #1 overall seed because they lacked that signature win. On Saturday, they got that win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, spoiling senior night for Duke, and for DaMarcus Nelson in particular. As for UCLA, they remained a #1 seed despite having two games which they probably should have lost. As a result, the gap between overall #4 and #5 teams on the big board has tightened.

In the Big East, Georgetown overcame Louisville to win the Big East regular season championship. Though Clement has a feeling that UConn may take the spoils at MSG, we project that the Hoya faithful will tell us exactly who they are when the clock shows three zeroes.

Moving to the fourth seed line, though we include MVC champ Drake, we really see them as a #5 seed; however, everyone else lost a game that they really should not have. On the seventh seed line, Marquette is a squad that can jump leaps and bounds with a superb showing at MSG, but we just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, let’s take a detour to the bubble.

- We have Ohio State as a #10 seed. Are they in? Not quite yet. Why are they so high? Perhaps, it’s because the Selection Committee loves to overrate quality March victories. This seeding may be one that we may need to review after their game against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.

- In deciding upon either Baylor or West Virginia for the final #10 seed, Baylor’s ability to the Big East #3 on a neutral court was more valuable than any single win that the Mountaineers had.

- In the PAC 10, we like seven teams as of right now. If Oregon loses by double digits against Washington State, then they will likely be out of the equation. Though Arizona finished 8-10 in conference, their #2 SOS nationally and a season sweep of the Cougars makes them more than viable.

- In the conference otherwise known as the A-14, we see Temple having the best opportunity to be the team that faces (and loses to) Xavier in the final. With their huge win against Xavier, St. Joseph’s claims the 34th at-large bid, outlasting VCU who lost a shocker to William & Mary. Of course, a sweep over UMass and a blowout win over Villanova never hurt. Despite winning both games this week, Dayton is now #8 seed, meaning that if they defeat St. Louis in the 1st round, they will face Xavier in the quarterfinals. Neither Clement nor myself felt brave enough to make that prediction regardless of whether Chris Wright plays.

- As stated for weeks, we expect UNLV to win the Mountain West Tournament on their home court. In doing that, we see them defeating both BYU and New Mexico, which shall help their resume.

- In the ACC, an expected loss for Virginia Tech and an unexpected one for Maryland (although Clement would have never put money on that game) meant doom and 4 seeds for now.

- Lastly, who is the best candidate to be this year’s Arkansas? That would be Ole Miss, who won its last three conference games to finish 7-9. Meanwhile, they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a rarity. Additionally, they can avoid Tennessee until the finals.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Indiana, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Pittsburgh
7: Marquette, Clemson, Kansas State, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, BYU, Kent State (MAC)
9: Miami-FL, Arizona State, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Oklahoma
10: Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor, West Virginia
11: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), UNLV (MWC), Illinois State
12: Texas A&M, Villanova, Temple, Oregon
13: St. Joseph’s, George Mason (CAA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: VCU, UMass, Syracuse, UAB
Next Four Out: Dayton, Maryland, Florida, Ole Miss

IN: Ohio State, Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Sacred Heart
OUT: VCU, Maryland, UMass, Southern Illinois, Dayton, Florida, Cal State Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Seeding Summary(Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 7/10
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big East: 7/16
ACC: 4/12
Big Ten: 5/11

West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
A-10: 3/14

Thursday Game Previews

We are just an hour and a half from the start of the first games of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Today, we look at five games on our radar that should be on yours as well.

At day's end, the tournament field will have shrunk from 64 to 48 and sixteen dreams will have ended with others looking forward to fulfillment on Saturday. Without further ado, here are today's previews.

#5. Butler vs. #12. Old Dominion [2:40 pm] Midwest Region
- The question for me is, “Which ODU team will come out?” If it’s the team that won 12 in a row leading up to the CAA Tournament, Vasylius, Williamson, and the boys will be too much to handle for Miss November. Butler absolutely needs AJ Graves to get out of the funk he left on Wright State’s home court. The guard matchups up will be key as well as Vasylius’ ability to assert himself on the offensive end.
Deciding Factor: ODU’s ability to cause turnovers and get Dahi back on track.

#6. Duke vs. #11. VCU [7:10 pm] West Region
- Likely to get a ton of deserving national attention, VCU has a golden opportunity to try and really test this underachieve Duke squad. Yet, don’t let the Blue Devils fool you…they’re still loaded with talent. VCU will have to shoot 40% or better from the three-point line and their three bigs (Anderson, Fameni, and Roland) must stay out of serious foul trouble.
Deciding Factor: Duke’s ability, or inability, to handle the VCU press.

#8. Marquette vs. #9. Michigan State [7:20 pm] East Region
- The game to get UNC. Never underestimate Tom Izzo (23-8 record in the NCAA Tournament), despite how youthful this team is this season. Dominic James and Drew Neitzel are a pair of dynamic backcourt players who should be seen by anyone with a television set. Important to note, Michigan State is fourth in the nation in scoring defense and should be able to out rebound the Golden Eagles due in large part to this.
Deciding Factor: The sprained thumb of Marquette guard Jerel McNeal, clearly the team’s top defender, may strip Marquette of too prized of a possession against the pesky Spartans.

#8. BYU vs. #9. Xavier [9:30 pm] South Region
- I have to admit, I’ve seen these teams play a combined four times this season. In that short time, I realize that the 3-ball will be hoisted early and often. Both teams shoot above 37% as a team from behind the arc and run very fluid offenses. The teams are absolutely even when it comes down to the major categories. It will be a battle of wills between Keena Young and Stanley Burrell.
Deciding Factor: Lavender’s ability to exploit the BYU guards on both sides of the ball and bench play.

#7. Indiana vs. #10. Gonzaga [9:40 pm] West Region
- Two things jump out to me. Indiana’s abysmal road/neutral court record (5-10) and their record since the Wisconsin victory against non-bottom three teams in the Big Ten (1-5). I’m not that keen on Gonzaga either. While they’ve regrouped as a team since the suspension of Josh Heytvelt, Kuso has little chance of stopping DJ White. In the end, if Gonzaga has a lead late, the free throw shooting of Derek Raivio and leadership of Jeremy Pargo will be too much for the struggling Hoosiers.
Deciding Factor: Pargo vs. Wilmont.

Two for Tuesday

This edition of the two-fer focuses on the two jewels of the Midwest, Marquette point guard Dominic James and the nationally-ranked Butler Bulldogs of the Horizon League.

Before I go on, let me say that Matt "Fuego" Carroll has ranted and raved about this guy since he donned a Marquette jersey at the beginning of last season. It was only last week when James smoked perennial powerhouse Duke for 25 points and 7 dimes. Last night, James once again demonstrated his ability to take over games in a 65-62 thriller against Valparaiso. James scored the team's final 18 points, including a three-pointer with 3 seconds left that decided the contest. He might just outdo Ronald Steele after all this year.

The second is the Butler Bulldogs (7-0, 19th in AP; 18th in ESPN/USA Today). In a very unlikely preseason NIT final, Butler won the Bulldog derby over Gonzaga. They are led by sharpshooter A.J. Graves, who leads the team in points with 19.7 per contest. The mystery to the success is not in the record, but in how Butler is winning all of its games when being outshot (41.4% to 40.8%) and outrebounded (33 to 31). Thus far, Butler has compensated for its poor shooting by averaging 10 turnovers per game and shooting over 80 percent from the free throw stripe.