Monday, March 10, 2008

2008 NCAA Projections - March 10, 2008

Christmas: Easily one of Philly's finest
Credit: Fans Only

(Editor's Note: This bracket does not reflect the result of the St. Mary's - San Diego game)

Last week, we held off on putting UNC as the #1 overall seed because they lacked that signature win. On Saturday, they got that win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, spoiling senior night for Duke, and for DaMarcus Nelson in particular. As for UCLA, they remained a #1 seed despite having two games which they probably should have lost. As a result, the gap between overall #4 and #5 teams on the big board has tightened.

In the Big East, Georgetown overcame Louisville to win the Big East regular season championship. Though Clement has a feeling that UConn may take the spoils at MSG, we project that the Hoya faithful will tell us exactly who they are when the clock shows three zeroes.

Moving to the fourth seed line, though we include MVC champ Drake, we really see them as a #5 seed; however, everyone else lost a game that they really should not have. On the seventh seed line, Marquette is a squad that can jump leaps and bounds with a superb showing at MSG, but we just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, let’s take a detour to the bubble.

- We have Ohio State as a #10 seed. Are they in? Not quite yet. Why are they so high? Perhaps, it’s because the Selection Committee loves to overrate quality March victories. This seeding may be one that we may need to review after their game against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.

- In deciding upon either Baylor or West Virginia for the final #10 seed, Baylor’s ability to the Big East #3 on a neutral court was more valuable than any single win that the Mountaineers had.

- In the PAC 10, we like seven teams as of right now. If Oregon loses by double digits against Washington State, then they will likely be out of the equation. Though Arizona finished 8-10 in conference, their #2 SOS nationally and a season sweep of the Cougars makes them more than viable.

- In the conference otherwise known as the A-14, we see Temple having the best opportunity to be the team that faces (and loses to) Xavier in the final. With their huge win against Xavier, St. Joseph’s claims the 34th at-large bid, outlasting VCU who lost a shocker to William & Mary. Of course, a sweep over UMass and a blowout win over Villanova never hurt. Despite winning both games this week, Dayton is now #8 seed, meaning that if they defeat St. Louis in the 1st round, they will face Xavier in the quarterfinals. Neither Clement nor myself felt brave enough to make that prediction regardless of whether Chris Wright plays.

- As stated for weeks, we expect UNLV to win the Mountain West Tournament on their home court. In doing that, we see them defeating both BYU and New Mexico, which shall help their resume.

- In the ACC, an expected loss for Virginia Tech and an unexpected one for Maryland (although Clement would have never put money on that game) meant doom and 4 seeds for now.

- Lastly, who is the best candidate to be this year’s Arkansas? That would be Ole Miss, who won its last three conference games to finish 7-9. Meanwhile, they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a rarity. Additionally, they can avoid Tennessee until the finals.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Indiana, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Pittsburgh
7: Marquette, Clemson, Kansas State, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, BYU, Kent State (MAC)
9: Miami-FL, Arizona State, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Oklahoma
10: Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor, West Virginia
11: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), UNLV (MWC), Illinois State
12: Texas A&M, Villanova, Temple, Oregon
13: St. Joseph’s, George Mason (CAA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: VCU, UMass, Syracuse, UAB
Next Four Out: Dayton, Maryland, Florida, Ole Miss

IN: Ohio State, Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Sacred Heart
OUT: VCU, Maryland, UMass, Southern Illinois, Dayton, Florida, Cal State Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Seeding Summary(Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 7/10
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big East: 7/16
ACC: 4/12
Big Ten: 5/11
West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
A-10: 3/14


Anonymous said...

Texas A&M lost 5 out of their last 7 and finished the Big 12 with an 8-8. With 20 wins from push-over schools, how does that rate?

I can't see them making the NCAA's. If they do, then they will be the sixth Big 12 school in the Big Dance.

Anonymous said...

1's. Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA, Tennessee.

2's. Texas, Duke, Georgetown, and fine Kansas

3's. Michigan State, Xavier, Purdue, Notre Dame

4's. Gonzaga, Vandy, Drake, Butler

4's are all the underrated teams that deserve more credit

Anonymous said...

Gonzaga underrated? After getting owned by San Diego and dropping from the top 25, don't think they're anywhere near a fourth seed.

Paymon said...

On A&M, I agree that losing 5 of 7 is a bad way to end the season. The home losses to Oklahoma State and Nebraska are inexcusable, but it's egregious to say that all but 1 win were against pushovers. They are our 6th from the Big XII as we speak.

I'll ignore the Power 16. Agreed on Gonzaga. They WERE playing their best basketball of the season prior to the WCC Tournament. Even in the semis, they needed a joke of a blocking call in the final minute to separate themselves from Santa Clara. That said, the Zags remain dangerous, likely as a #6-8 seed.

Anonymous said...

If I didn't know better, and believe that the Administration and Coaches at Gonzaga are honorable people, who do the right thing... I'd swear that the Zags 'threw' the championship game so that the WCC could get an historic 3 Bids in the NCAAs. They did not play anyways close to their normal type game, or their normal rhythm. They had beaten USD so often n so regularly, that most folks had lost count of the current tally.

Seemed a bit of an oddly played / off timing type of contest.

It was probably just me... and Half of America, who noticed it.

Anonymous said...

Paymon Momeni, Momeni

Wass up Momeni?