PHSports Field of 65 -- January 26, 2010

After an amazing NFC Championship game (and that thing that pays the bills), little time was left to do our bracket projections. But alas, they are complete. As a reminder, PHSports is of the brand that uses the projection / prediction model. In other words, we're a different cup of tea, and we wouldn't have succumbed to having UVa as the automatic bid from the ACC last week.

In the last two weeks, Kansas re-established the #1 overall seed, while Texas slipped to the 5th overall seed because of some lackluster team defense. Though I do not trust Duke or their 1-3 true road record, they get the #1 seed because the ACC is the nation's top conference and they have some solid non-conference wins. Kentucky and Syracuse complete the #1 seeds, though Texas may be the second #1 seed from the Big XII when this is all said and done.

There are a few teams that I like which other bracketologists or fans may not be too fond of. Some may BYU has no right being a #3 seed. I see a team that crushes the eye test with top 16 ratings nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The second is Missouri as a #5 seed. On paper, they are a 7 through 9 seed, but this team plays great defense and has depth -- two things that will be on their side come later in February. North Carolina at #7 seed may be seen as a homer pick, and that is fine. They have the talent, plenty of depth in the frontcourt, and they have the coach, though it hasn't quite gelled yet.

Moving down to our last four teams in the tournament, I was fairly confident about UNLV and Minnesota, despite the latter's internal turmoil. Prior to tonight's win against Northwestern (which was predicted), Minnesota lost 3 games in a row by 12 times, 2 of which were to Michigan State, who is undefeated in the Big Ten. If Harvard only loses to Cornell from this point onward (which is what we're predicting), and no bids are stolen from the multiple bid conferences, then they are worthy of an at-large. The same goes for St. Mary's. If they win out, except in games against Gonzaga, and the same principles apply, then they are our 65th team, due to some good out of conference wins. Ultimately, a 3rd team from C-USA or a 2nd team from the Pac-10 may be more realistic.

Last Four In: UNLV, Minnesota, Harvard, St. Mary's
Last Four Out: UAB, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Northwestern
Next Four Out: Arizona St., Rhode Island, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

Conference Breakdown (multiple bid conferences only)
ACC (7) -- Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida St., Clemson, Maryland
Big XII (7) -- Kansas, Texas, Kansas St., Missouri, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Texas A&M
Big East (7) -- Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville
SEC (6) -- Kentucky, Mississippi St., Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Florida
Big Ten (5) -- Michigan St., Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota
A10 (3) -- Temple, Xavier, Dayton
Mountain West (3) -- BYU, New Mexico, UNLV
C-USA (2) -- Tulsa, Memphis
Ivy (2) -- Cornell, Harvard
WCC (2) -- Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Seedings
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: Texas, Villanova, Michigan St., Purdue
3: West Virginia, Georgetown, BYU, Wisconsin
4: Kansas St., Temple, UConn, Ohio St.
5: Gonzaga, Mississippi St., Missouri, Georgia Tech
6: Pittsburgh, Baylor, Tennessee, Wake Forest
7: North Carolina, Florida St., Clemson, Northern Iowa
8: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Butler, California
9: Oklahoma St., Siena, Maryland, Cornell
10: Xavier, Texas A&M, Tulsa, Florida
11: Dayton, New Mexico, Memphis, Old Dominion
12: Louisville, UNLV, Minnesota, Murray St.
13: Harvard, St. Mary's, Charleston, Louisiana Tech
14: Oakland, Coastal Carolina, Northern Colorado, Akron
15: Sam Houston St., Arkansas St., Morgan St., Pacific
16: Lafayette, Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Prairie View A&M, Quinnipiac

(Bracket will be posted later in the week)

NEXT UPDATE: After results ending February 7

PHSports Field of 65 -- January 11, 2010

After a long break, we're break with some bracket projections. Despite five weeks of play since the last update, not much has changed at the top. All of the top teams have shown weakness in the new year, and it's very possible that we will have no undefeated teams in the next two weeks.

A few notes:

• Given Tyler Smith's dismissal and the ongoing Renardo Sidney saga, Kentucky has the potential to win 14 games in the SEC, and that can net them a #1 seed.

• The ACC could be the nation's most competitive conference, and for that reason, a 12-win conference winner may not be good enough to take the #1 seed cake.

• The PAC 10 is awful. I watched some of Oregon / Oregon State, as I was on the fence about including the Ducks. I wanted my 30 minutes back.

• It'll be interesting to see how injuries factor into seeding. Butler missed Matt Howard for a bit and Jon Leuer just suffered a wrist injury that will keep him out indefinitely for Bucky.

• The upset of Kansas was extraordinary. I know Clement will say that it was 50% Bill Self. Needless to say, there is no way that a team with 6 scholarship players can remain consistent in the SEC. Because of Smith's dismissal and the suspension of several players, I dropped Tennessee by 3 seed lines.

Power 16
1: Texas, Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue
2: Villanova, Syracuse, Duke, Michigan St.
3: West Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, BYU
4: Mississippi St., Missouri, Butler, UConn

LAST FOUR IN: UNLV, Miami-FL, Tulsa, Arizona St.

LAST FOUR OUT: Dayton, Notre Dame, Wichita St., Washington

NEXT FOUR OUT: Cincinnati, UTEP, Florida, Oregon













NEXT BRACKET PROJECTION: Monday, January 25

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 (FINAL)

Following the exhaustive breakdown late last night, our focus in today’s post is brevity. That said, here is PHSports’s Final 65.

A few noteworthy points before we delve into the seeds and pairings ...
* San Diego State was knocked out as a result of Mississippi State winning the SEC Tournament. As a side note, was that not the worst officiating in a single minute of basketball since 1972?

* St. Mary’s is an 11 seed due to seeding conflicts for Texas A&M and Penn State. Speaking of A&M, if less than four of the five Big XII teams ahead of them find themselves on the bottom part of the bracket (i.e. seeds 2,3,6,7,10,11,14,15), they can earn a #10 seed.

* Despite exclusion from PHSports, I would not be shocked one bit to see Wisconsin in the field. I just do not understand the love. Their best non-conference win was at NIT-team Virginia Tech and their best win was versus Illinois (their only win in five tries against the 3 Big Ten teams who were clearly in the NCAA Tournament prior to the conference tournament). Against those teams, Penn State, who had the same conference record as Wisconsin and is on the outside looking in due to an excessive focus on the OOC SOS, won 4 games in 7 attempts – two of which were away from Happy Valley. Wisconsin’s best non-home win was against Michigan on Jan 1.

* Memphis does not deserve a 1 seed. If they get it over UConn, then the Selection Committee did not compare the resumes and drastically overvalued the loss of Jerome Dyson.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: DUKE (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Kansas
3: Syracuse, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: PURDUE (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, UCLA, UTAH (MWC), Illinois
7: Tennessee, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC), VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), AMERICAN (Patriot), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), Akron (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

Last Four In: Minnesota, Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s
Last Four Out: San Diego State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Auburn, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
SEC: 3/12
Mountain West: 2/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10


The PHSports Bracket

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 14, 2009

Following last night's second half comeback against Villanova, Louisville hopped over Pittsburgh to claim our overall #2 seed. Sticking with the #1 seeds, Michigan State slipped to the 2 line by virtue of how they played and an insight that is not being highlighted enough by the networks. A key point is that Michigan State is earning inflated credit for the number of RPI Top 50 wins (13). However, 9 of those 13 are against teams rated between 31 and 50. As a result, UConn - a tenant of the first seed line for nearly the entire season - reclaims its spot, but they may be shipped out west. Meanwhile, Memphis (i.e. ESPN's sentimental favorite for the #1 seed) is not even sniffing the 1 line, though they are in firm footing for a #2 seed if they defeat Tulsa.

Moving to the at-large bids, none of the teams placed after Maryland are secure. Also, the distance separating at-large bid # 25 (Penn State) and the First Three Out is paper thin. If Illinois (Penn State swept them) defeats Purdue, then Penn State will make a giant leap forward towards achieving status.

Since the Last Four In is as secure as the White House during an episode of 24 and there are many opportunities for bids to be stolen, there could be plenty of shuffling. Because of the possible scenarios, Auburn may need to defeat Tennessee in order to stay in the field.

Finally, choosing the 34th at-large bid was a chore. Ultimately, I felt that there will be a maximum of 7 bids from the Big Ten and that Wisconsin has the weakest of the resumes (SOS: 14; 1-4 v. top three Big 10 teams - v. Illinois) among the five bubble teams under consideration.

St. Mary's earned the nod over Creighton (for now) and Arizona for two reasons. First, it's the obvious Patty Mills factor. He is not 100%, but he is making a difference. Second, St. Mary's inclusion came down to road/neutral record and OOC SOS. St. Mary's is 13-5 in road/neutral games, while Creighton is 11-5 and Arizona is 2-9. Despite what is being said by the talking heads, Arizona (62) and St. Mary's (65) have a comparable OOC SOS. Creighton is a distant 222.

Protected Seeds (by Pod Host):
Boise -- Missouri, Florida State
Dayton -- Louisville, Michigan State
Greensboro -- North Carolina, Duke
Kansas City -- Oklahoma, Kansas
Miami -- Wake Forest, Villanova
Minneapolis -- Memphis, Syracuse
Philadelphia -- Pittsburgh, UConn
Portland -- Gonzaga, Washington

New Locks
Maryland

No Longer Under Consideration
Kansas State, Florida, UAB, Kentucky

Have comments or questions? Comment on the board or send your comment or question to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings (NOTE: These are unaltered seedings due to time constraints)
1: North Carolina (ACC), Louisville (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Duke, Memphis (C-USA), Oklahoma
3: Villanova, Wake Forest, Kansas, Syracuse
4: GONZAGA (WCC), Washington, Missouri (Big XII), Florida State
5: Illinois, Arizona State (PAC 10), Xavier, West Virginia
6: Clemson, Marquette, Purdue, UCLA
7: Utah (MWC), Tennessee (SEC), Butler, LSU
8: California, Texas, Boston College, BYU
9: Oklahoma State, SIENA (Metro Atlantic), Maryland, Penn State
10: Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt)
11: San Diego State, Dayton, Auburn, Texas A&M
12: Utah St. (WAC), VCU (CAA), Temple (A-10), CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), St. Mary’s, AMERICAN (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), Pacific (Big West), CHATTANOOGA (Southern), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Maryland, San Diego State, Temple, Pacific
OUT: Wisconsin, Creighton, Arizona, Long Beach State

Last Four In: Dayton, Auburn, Texas A&M, St. Mary’s
Last Four Out: Wisconsin, Creighton, Arizona, USC
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Providence, South Carolina
Next Four Out: New Mexico, Baylor, Florida, Kansas State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
Pac-10: 4/10
SEC: 3/12
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 9, 2009

Let’s call this the best 34 at-large team edition. After agonizing over including an unprecedented 8th team from the Big Ten, I wilted and included Ohio State over Kansas State, who may earn an at-large bid without winning in the Big XII Tournament (likely versus Texas). Do I think that the Big Ten will carry 8 bids on Selection Sunday? Not really. However, for this last week, I am going to let the basketball do the talking. The week that just ended has been like reading tea leaves through a thick London fog.

Among the top seeds, Louisville replaced Duke on the 1 line. Why? Louisville won the Big East outright and finished 2-1 against the teams who have double byes in the Big East Tournament. It’s all about who you have beaten, and where and when you beat them. When you put that together, Louisville is a top 4 team. If one of the top 3 Big East teams do not make the semifinals and Michigan State or Wake Forest win their conference tournaments, then they may steal the final #1 seed.

Beyond determining the final at-large bids, Championship Week will have an immense say in seed lines 4 through 8, which is as settling as a bad hairpiece. At this juncture, I am projecting that 22 at-large bids have been locked up, leaving 12 bids for the taking. Among our last 12 in are 5 (count ‘em, 5) Big Ten teams! If Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State lose in succession coupled with a Notre Dame or a Georgetown making the Big East semis, then we may see as few as 5 teams in from the Big Ten. Stranger things have happened.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due To Seeding Conflicts?
Marquette

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Butler

If you have questions, comments, or uninhibited hatred, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, Butler (Horizon)
6: Marquette, California, Gonzaga, Texas
7: Tennessee (SEC), Arizona State, Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, St. Mary’s (WCC), Penn State
10: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Wisconsin
11: Michigan, UNLV (MWC), Creighton, Ohio State
12: Utah St. (WAC), Arizona, Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), VCU (CAA), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Weber State (Big Sky), Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit)
15: Charleston (Southern), Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy)
16: RADFORD(Big South), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Texas A&M, Michigan, Arizona, Northern Iowa, Binghamton, Charleston, Radford, Morehead State
OUT: Kansas State, Providence, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Davidson, Vermont, VMI, Tennessee-Martin

Last Four In: Creighton, Ohio State, Auburn, Arizona
Last Four Out: Kansas State, Providence, New Mexico, South Carolina
Next Four Out: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
West Coast: 2/9
MVC: 2/10
A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 7, 2009

If you were a bubble team and you had a game this week, there’s a good chance you fell out as a result of losing a game that you should have won. Among those ranks were Georgetown, Florida, Notre Dame and Arizona – all of whom lost games that they either should have won or absolutely needed to. Replacing them are Oklahoma State and St. Mary’s (welcome back, Patty Mills), and two teams seemingly chosen from out of thin air – Providence and Auburn. The argument in favor of Auburn is their surge to 2nd place in the SEC West gives them momentum leading into their game against LSU as well as the SEC Tournament. (Among the automatic bids, I was forced to discard Belmont after their loss to East Tennessee State.)

On the cusp of the tournament are Texas A&M, Rhode Island and South Carolina. The Aggies are on a roll, having won their last 5, but how many of them were they not supposed to win? A win versus Missouri assuredly makes the win streak legitimate and puts them in the field (for now). The same can be said about Rhode Island, though they lack a marquee win (best win: @ Penn State). As for South Carolina, 10-6 would have been good enough had they defeated Tennessee at home on Thursday. Without that win, the ‘Cocks are a big 0-fer against the RPI Top 50.

When you think of the first 12 teams out of my field and who can benefit the most, look no further than the Cougars of Washington State. If they somehow defeat their rivals (Washington) on the road, they will have claimed road victories against the 1st, 2nd and 4th place teams in the conference – all of whom are unquestioned tournament teams. Despite their 13 losses, no other team on the bubble can stake that claim. Meanwhile, Michigan (@ Minnesota) and Northwestern (@ Ohio State) may knock Ohio State from the 7th spot with road victories.

Who Slid One Seed Line?
Kansas State, St. Mary’s


Who Benefited by One Seed Line?
Providence, Virginia Tech

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)
2: Louisville, Michigan State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big XII), Wake Forest
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Xavier (A-10), Clemson, Marquette, Missouri
5: Florida State, Illinois, California, Butler (Horizon)
6: Tennessee (SEC), Syracuse, Gonzaga, UCLA
7: Penn State, Purdue, Boston College, Texas
8: West Virginia, LSU, Arizona State, Utah
9: Wisconsin, Creighton (MVC), BYU, Minnesota
10: Ohio State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), UNLV (MWC), Dayton
11: Providence, Maryland, Davidson (Southern), Virginia Tech
12: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Utah St. (WAC), St. Mary’s (WCC)
13: Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Vermont (America East), VCU (CAA)
14: North Dakota State (Summit), Buffalo (MAC), American (Patriot), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
15: CORNELL (Ivy), Weber State (Big Sky), VMI (Big South), Robert Morris (Northeast),
16: E. Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Morgan State (MEAC), Long Beach State (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC)


IN: Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s, Providence, Auburn, E. Tennessee State
OUT: Georgetown, Florida, Notre Dame, Arizona, Belmont

Last Four In: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Providence, Auburn
Last Four Out: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Arizona
Next Four Out: Michigan, Georgetown, Northwestern, Miami-FL
Next Four Out: Washington State, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Tulsa

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12
Big Ten: 7/11
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 4/10
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
A-10: 2/14
West Coast: 2/9

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 2, 2009

If you did not realize yesterday, we have entered March and are less than two weeks (and counting) from Selection Sunday. Out of the many years I have done this exercise, this has been the toughest. Why? There is a higher number of teams among the Last Four In and the Last Eight Out who have signature wins. Simply look at some of the teams that our top 4 overall seeds have lost to (v. Georgetown, @ Maryland, @ Providence, @ Michigan) and you will begin to understand that the Tournament Selection Committee already has with 13 days of basketball yet to played.

At the top, I decided to elevate Duke based on two crucial road wins against teams that we have in the field. Though the officials made as many as three errors in the final four minutes (all favoring Duke) against Virginia Tech, this is an improved team with Elliott Williams as a starter. Louisville, who continues to rack up quality wins, inches closer to the #1 line, while Oklahoma is hurting badly in the style points department.

In the next two weeks, there will be heavy movement between the 4th and 9th seed lines, as many of these teams will face each other in the middle and latter stages of their conference tournaments. Meanwhile, nothing is shored up on the bubble. In a week that expected to see shrinkage in the number of teams vying for spots, we saw more teams join the fray. Though not in the field, Michigan, Providence, Oklahoma State and Washington State earned a closer look with some unexpected wins taking shape.

Normally, we look at the Last Four In. This time, let’s look at the Last Seven In, because that is when the headache of choosing these evenly matched teams begun.

* My 28th at-large bid, Virginia Tech, won a shocker at Littlejohn, and nearly overcame a horrible first 10 minutes against Duke to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. While only 7-7 and with bad losses against Seton Hall and Georgia, Tech has the look and feel of a tournament team, with road wins against Wake Forest and Clemson.

* My 29th at-large bid, Georgetown, added another quality win on a floor other than their own by defeating Villanova. This gave them a real chance at finishing 8-10 in the Big East, which would likely gain them the #11 seed in the Big East Tournament. Two wins, which is very possible, and they are in with no questions asked.

* My 30th at-large bid, Maryland, willed themselves to victory against NC State in a game they badly needed and that is the profile of a tournament team. Additionally, the Terrapins have elevated their play and now hold signature victories over two teams among my top 7 overall seeds. One point of information: Maryland’s inclusion meant that Miami would not be in the field as the ACC will not include a 9th team.

* My 31st at-large bid, Florida, is in a world of hurt. They have a weak SOS and their best win was against Washington on a neutral court in November. Two wins this week (see assumptions) and they have a puncher’s chance at the NCAA Tournament.

* My 32nd at-large bid, Notre Dame, is playing better despite not achieving results. If they defeat Villanova, then that gives them wins v. Louisville, Villanova, Texas (N), Georgetown, and @ Providence. All things considered, Mike Brey should consider investing in a tie. Seriously.

* My 33rd at-large bid, Arizona, disappointing this weekend in the Pacific Northwest. In a game that would have been an ornament on their resume, Arizona blew a double-digit second-half lead at Washington. That said, Arizona can keep its streak of tournament bids going, but they must first sweep Cal and Stanford. Good luck.

* My final at-large bid is Kansas State. Kansas State? If they can defeat Oklahoma State in Stillwater and do not slip up versus Colorado, they are certainly in, as that would give them a 10-6 clip with a split against Missouri and road wins against the #2-4 teams in the Big XII South.

As I said, this was the toughest Last Four Out decision that I have to make so far this season. As a result of unanticipated losses on Saturday and concern about how they will play in their remaining games, I omitted Kentucky and South Carolina, who both had little margin for error. As mentioned, not much separates those Last 7 In and the Last 9 Out (the 9th is Washington State).

Who Slid One Seed Line?
West Virginia, Penn State, Ohio State, Maryland

Who Benefited by One Seed Line?
Texas, Creighton, BYU, Florida

Key Assumptions This Week
* UConn wins at Pitt
* UNC defeats Duke
* Minnesota wins versus Michigan
* Virginia Tech splits against UNC (home) and Florida State (away)
* Georgetown sweeps St. John’s (away) and DePaul (home – does it matter?)
* Florida takes out Mississippi State in Starkville and Kentucky at home
* Notre Dame versus Villanova and St. John’s
* Arizona pulls out a Bay Area team sweep in Tucson
* Kansas State wins at least one of two at Oklahoma State and versus Colorado
* Maryland achieves a split versus Wake Forest and at Virginia

Next Update: Friday, March 6 (results ending Thursday, March 5)

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)
2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest
3: Kansas, Villanova, Clemson, Memphis (C-USA)
4: Marquette, Washington (PAC 10), Xavier (A-10), Illinois
5: Florida State, Missouri, Purdue, Arizona State
6: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, UCLA, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: California, Boston College, LSU (SEC), Texas
8: Wisconsin, Utah, West Virginia, Tennessee
9: Dayton, Minnesota, Creighton (MVC), BYU
10: Virginia Tech, Penn State, Davidson (Southern), Ohio State
11: Georgetown, Florida, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Notre Dame
12: UNLV (MWC), Maryland, Arizona, Kansas State
13: Utah State (WAC), Vermont (America East), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), VCU (CAA)
14: North Dakota State (Summit), Buffalo (MAC), American (Patriot), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
15: Cornell (Ivy), Weber State (Big Sky), VMI (Big South), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Robert Morris (Northeast), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Morgan State (MEAC), Long Beach State (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Kansas State
OUT: Kentucky, Miami-FL, South Carolina

Last Four In: Florida, Notre Dame, Arizona, Kansas State
Last Four Out: Miami, Kentucky, South Carolina, Michigan
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Providence, Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12
Big Ten: 7/11
Big East: 9/16
Pac-10: 5/10
Big XII: 5/12
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 23, 2009

It's not a misprint. UConn remains the top overall seed despite a loss to Pitt. It's not easy for even the top team to lose its best perimeter threat and then face another top seed. I believe UConn will get used to live without Jerome Dyson during the regular season and the conference tournament, and that Kemba Walker will fill at least a portion of the void.

Despite a loss to Texas and a predicted home loss against Kansas (that's why we have them as a #3 seed this week), Blake Griffin will return to full strength and the Sooners will be judged on their performances with the nation's best player. Staying in the Big XII, they remain at 4 teams this week. That changes if Kansas State pulls off the upset at Missouri on Wednesday, then wins one of their final three (v. Nebraska, @ Oklahoma State, v. Colorado) and avoids a 5/12 defeat in the Big XII tournament.

This week's team to look out for is Villanova. They are 10-4 in the Big East (playing PC, Cuse and Marquette 2x), have a legitimate interior threat in Dante Cunningham, and are one of the nation's hottest teams. In fact, it was a toss up between Memphis and Villanova, but the nation's top defense won out.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, another team to look out for is Ohio State. The value of their early season wins have fizzled and they are suddenly .500 with four games to play in the Big Ten, leaving many things to chance at the Big Ten Tournament, unless they win at least three of their last four. Another team that needs a rapid mend is none other than Davidson. Even a blind man can see that Stephen Curry, even prior to his ankle injury, was pressing and forcing shots. They were bumped up a seed due to matchup conflicts and can find themselves on the 12 or 13 line if they do not rectify their play quickly.

Moving to the last four in (which is easily the most fun topic for true bracket aficionados), Maryland and Notre Dame seeped into the field while Miami-FL (5-8 in the ACC, but I think they will win their last three games and easily pass the eye test) and South Carolina hung on for dear life. The margin for error is not very much, as Cincinnati (who blew a chance at a signature win on Saturday versus Louisville), San Diego State (20+ point loss to a NIT team = NIT bound) and Kansas State are all within an earshot of that elusive 34th at-large bid.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Oklahoma (Big XII)

2: Duke (ACC), Louisville, Michigan State (Big Ten), Memphis (C-USA)

3: Villanova, Wake Forest, Kansas, Marquette

4: Clemson, Missouri, Washington (PAC 10), Arizona State

5: Purdue, Illinois, West Virginia, Xavier (A-10)

6: Butler (Horizon), Florida State, Texas, UCLA

7: Gonzaga (WCC), Syracuse, LSU (SEC), Minnesota

8: California, Tennessee, Boston College, Ohio State

9: Utah, Dayton, Penn State, Wisconsin

10: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), BYU, Florida

11: Kentucky, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Creighton (MVC), Maryland

12: Utah State (WAC), UNLV (MWC), Notre Dame, Miami-FL

13: South Carolina, Vermont (America East), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), VCU (CAA)

14: Buffalo (MAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), American (Patriot)

15: Cornell (Ivy), VMI (Big South), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Morgan State (MEAC), Long Beach State (Big West), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Penn State, Maryland, Notre Dame

OUT: Virginia Tech, USC, Cincinnati

Last Four In: Maryland, Notre Dame, Miami-FL, South Carolina

Last Four Out: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Kansas State, USC

Next Four Out: St. Mary’s, Georgetown, Michigan, Virginia Tech

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12

Big Ten: 7/11

Big East: 8/16

Pac-10: 5/10

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

Mountain West: 3/9

A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 16, 2009

For the first time in many years of projecting brackets and the three years I have projected to the masses, having the same 65 teams in back-to-back weeks is a FIRST. Once again, despite the injury to Jerome Dyson, UConn stands at the top of the mountain with even UNC taking giant steps forward. After putting 100 on Duke at Cameron, the Heels won ugly against Miami last night.

In a lot of brackets, I see Wake Forest sliding fast. However, they are the only team to beat the top 4 in the ACC (wins versus UNC, Duke, Florida State and at Clemson). For that reason, I had to place them above Duke, who is starting their annual fall from grace. As a result of Duke’s fall, I was forced to place Oklahoma – who has often played to the level of their lesser competition – as a #1 seed.

Despite two losses in the PAC 10, I expect UCLA to run the table to win the conference outright and claim a protected seed. That said, the PAC 10 has been full of twists and turns, reducing predictability by the nanosecond.

In terms of whose stock rose, this was a good week for Arizona and Boston College.

* While I thought Arizona would get past USC, I anticipated a hard-fought win by the UCLA Bruins last weekend. I anticipated incorrectly, as great offense defeated great defense. Nic Wise, Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger (yes, in that order) make up one of the best trios nationally.

* Undeterred by a home loss earlier in the week to Clemson (who lost yesterday to UVa!), BC is now 3-0 against teams from the Triangle area and added one more signature victory to their at-large bid mantle. If Al Skinner continues to regulate and the Eagles earn regular contributions from their single-digit scorers, they can move up two more seed lines.

Though not many teams fell precipitously, Miami-FL and USC could consider this week a missed opportunity despite decent performances. Ultimately, this may pave the way for the likes of Penn State and Notre Dame who gained crucial home wins this weekend and demonstrated a sense of urgency that was not seen in previous contests. The Irish will be back in the field if they sweep away contests against West Virginia and Providence.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma (Big XII)

2: Louisville, Wake Forest, Michigan State (Big Ten), Duke (ACC)

3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Marquette, Clemson

4: Illinois, Kansas, UCLA (PAC 10), Missouri

5: Washington, Ohio State, Arizona State, Syracuse

6: Xavier (A-10), Purdue, Florida State, West Virginia

7: Butler (Horizon), Texas, Gonzaga (WCC), Boston College

8: Tennessee (SEC), Minnesota, Dayton, California

9: LSU, Davidson (Southern), Arizona, Utah

10: UNLV (MWC), Wisconsin, Florida, Utah State (WAC)

11: Virginia Tech, BYU, Kentucky, Cincinnati

12: USC, Miami-FL, South Carolina, Creighton (MVC)

13: Siena (Metro Atlantic), VCU (CAA), Vermont (America East), Buffalo (MAC)

14: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), North Dakota State (Summit), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Cornell (Ivy)

15: American (Patriot), VMI (Big South), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: NONE

OUT: NONE

Last Four In: Cincinnati, Miami-FL, South Carolina, USC

Last Four Out: Penn State, Notre Dame, Kansas State, San Diego State

Next Four Out: Georgetown, Providence, Michigan, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12

Pac-10: 6/10

Big East: 8/16

Big Ten: 6/11

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

Mountain West: 3/9

A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 9, 2009

For the third straight set of projections, UConn tops the charts. This pick was solidified by exemplary defense as well as two subtractions from the UNC roster (Marcus Ginyard ruled out by injury and Will Graves suspended for reasons that Roy Williams decided not to elaborate).

Though they have only one loss (to Arkansas), Oklahoma remains on the 2-line. Due to a matchup conflict, I placed them in the 6^th overall spot, though we project them to be higher than Louisville, who greeted February with a setback on Monday and an uninspiring performance on Sunday.

In terms of whose stock rose, look no further than the Tigers of Memphis and Missouri.

* I expected Memphis to be competitive against Gonzaga, but I did not expect to punish and demoralize the Bulldogs. John Calipari's management of Tyreke Evans - who came in with a selfish tag and is suddenly one of the best floor generals in the country since his move to the point – is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration on its face.

* As for Missouri, they are living up to their gaudy eye test metrics (top 25 national rating in offensive and defensive efficiency). Because they are now the 3^rd team in the Big XII, they will be the hunted and will not catch teams off guard.

Meanwhile, stock is plummeting in Austin, Lafayette, Las Vegas and State College.

* On the heels of three consecutive conference losses to teams not named Oklahoma or Kansas, Texas is in the midst of an identity crisis and it is due in part to being banged up and not having an NBA-caliber point guard in the backcourt. However, this is why Rick Barnes gets paid the big bucks. He will have this team turned around, though it may not be immediate.

* While I do not think Robbie Hummel is the best player for the Boilermakers, his absence has been felt in two losses this week. If he remains out, expect more of the same. The beneficiaries of this loss will no doubt be Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota, who are all battling for a 'protected' seed (i.e. 4 seed or better).

* UNLV is playing awful. When you lose close games, the finger will undoubtedly be in the direction of either the best player or the point guard. In this case, it's the same player. Yeah, I'm calling you out Wink Adams. Another week like this and my stretch of a Mountain West championship becomes no more. Utah is starting to normalize.

* As highlighted by other folks, in a week that Penn State needed a split, the Nittany Lions came out empty-handed and they have three halves of utter futility to thank for it. After winning unexpectedly in East Lansing, Penn State tanked against fellow bubble teams with back-to-back double-digit losses. That's toxic for a resume and I cannot emphasize that enough.

Moving down to the last four in, I went in with the notion that I am choosing the best 34 at-large teams. Miami-FL may finish 7-9 in the ACC and may garner serious at-large consideration, especially if Kentucky (who they defeated at Rupp Arena) rights the ship and Ohio State (who they would have beaten had Jack McClinton not been wrongfully ejected) continues to play well. In the end, it came down to Arizona and Kansas State. While I think that it is slightly irresponsible to have six from the PAC 10, Arizona has a better resume than Kansas State.

On a final note, Georgetown, who was a protected seed, is out of the field. The tipping point was an overtime loss against Cincinnati, which I happened to attend. If the Hoyas can go 8-10 in the Big East given their tougher than average schedule with a semifinal run at Madison Square Garden, they carry a strong argument for an at-large bid. At this point, however, it is unrealistic to see Georgetown win four of their last seven and win at least two at MSG.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)

2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest

3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Clemson, UCLA

4: Marquette, Xavier (A-10), Kansas, Ohio State

5: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, Illinois, Purdue

6: Minnesota, Washington, Gonzaga (WCC), Missouri

7: Arizona State, Florida State, West Virginia, Texas

8: Tennessee (SEC), Davidson (Southern), California, Florida

9: Boston College, Dayton, Virginia Tech, UNLV (MWC)

10: Utah State (WAC), LSU, USC, Utah

11: Cincinnati, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Miami-FL

12: Siena (Metro Atlantic), BYU, Kentucky, Arizona

13: Creighton (MVC), VCU (CAA), Buffalo (MAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

14: Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit), Vermont (America East), Cornell (Ivy)

15: VMI (Big South), American (Patriot), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Wisconsin, BYU, Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Creighton, Tennessee-Martin

OUT: Penn State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Providence, Austin Peay

Last Four In: Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arizona

Last Four Out: Kansas State, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Michigan

Next Four Out: Penn State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Nebraska

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12

Pac-10: 6/10

Big East: 8/16

Big Ten: 6/11

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

Mountain West: 3/9

A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 2, 2009

[NOTE: Bracket projections do not include results from February 2, 2009]

Talking Points

For the second week running, the UConn Huskies top the field of 65. On the heels of two road wins (that they were supposed to win anyways), North Carolina claims the #2 spot flanked by Duke, who lost at Wake Forest. One of the tougher choices this week was whether to elevate Oklahoma over Pittsburgh, who lost to Villanova. In the end, we foresee Oklahoma losing at Texas and at least two other conference games prior to the Big XII Tournament. Due to the relative strength of the Big East, Pittsburgh can afford two more losses and a loss in the finals of the Big East Tournament (to UConn) and still earn a #1 seed.

Unlike most weeks, this past week involved plenty of movement. Villanova, Boston College, Dayton and Penn State were among our highest risers. On the flipside, there was a whopping four teams – Notre Dame, Miami-FL, Michigan, Baylor – who fell out of the field from a 10 seed or better. In the case of the Irish, they were lifeless in the final four minutes of a must-win home game against Marquette and they continue to be obvious on offense and always place the welcome mat in the paint on defense. Miami-FL has lost 3 in a row and get to face Wake Forest, Duke and UNC. Good luck. As for Michigan and Baylor, both have become accustomed to losing games by double digits, which is never a good sign.

Moving down to the last four out, I felt the need to keep St. Mary's in the field because of Patrick Mills, which occurred at the end of the first half against Gonzaga when the Gaels were up. Mills will miss the next month, but should return prior to the WCC Tournament. Arizona took care of business at home (while Arizona State faltered) versus the Washington schools and has a realistic chance of completing a sweep on the Oregon trail this weekend prior to winnable games against UCLA and USC in Tucson. In spite of Providence's 30+ point loss to UConn on Saturday, they won the first game that they were not supposed to against Syracuse, which (along with Notre Dame's poor performances and future schedule) catapulted them into the field of 65. For the final spot, Utah edged Notre Dame and Texas A&M behind their current play and their win against Gonzaga.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Duke (ACC), Pittsburgh

2: Oklahoma (Big XII), Louisville, Marquette, Wake Forest

3: Michigan State (Big Ten), Minnesota, Xavier (A-10), Clemson

4: Purdue, Villanova, Texas, Butler (Horizon)

5: Gonzaga (WCC), Syracuse, UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)

6: Washington, Illinois, UNLV (MWC), Kansas

7: West Virginia, Dayton, Davidson (Southern), Ohio State

8: Boston College, Tennessee (SEC), Arizona State, Penn State

9: Florida State, Florida, Missouri, Utah State (WAC)

10: Georgetown, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, California

11: LSU, Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), USC, Kentucky

12: Siena (Metro Atlantic), St. Mary's, Arizona, Providence

13: Utah, VCU (CAA), Buffalo (MAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

14: Stephen F. Austin (Southland), American (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Cornell (Ivy)

15: VMI (Big South), Vermont (America East), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Penn State, LSU, Arizona, Providence, Utah, Northern Iowa, Alabama State, Buffalo, Weber State

OUT: Notre Dame, Miami-FL, Michigan, Baylor, Wisconsin, Prairie View A&M, Miami-Ohio, Portland State

Last Four In: St. Mary's, Arizona, Providence, Utah

Last Four Out: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, BYU, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Miami, Baylor, Michigan, Maryland

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10

ACC: 7/12

Big East: 9/16

Big Ten: 6/11

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

West Coast: 2/8

Mountain West: 2/9

A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - January 26, 2009

Talking Points …

In Saturday night’s post, I teased putting UConn at top of the scrap heap, and upon further study of their resume - which trumps all – I have no choice but to put them at the overall #1 seed. Their most recent triumph ended Notre Dame’s 45-game home winning streak. The Huskies have now defeated Miami-FL, Wisconsin, Buffalo, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Cincinnati and now Notre Dame away from home. That’s a feat.

Among the high risers this week are Missouri and Virginia Tech, who were not in the last eight out of our last bracket (Missouri due to admitted oversight) a fortnight ago. For the most part, the Tigers are playing strong basketball at both ends of the court. Virginia Tech has come out of nowhere with five straight wins behind the three-headed monster of Malcolm Delaney, AD Vassallo and Jeff Allen. Tech proved that their win on Wednesday night at Wake Forest was not a fluke by withstanding many punches and eventually knocking out the Miami Hurricanes.

Choosing the 34th at-large team is always a pain. This week was not any easier. And I know what Joe Bracket will be thinking when Penn State and/or Providence is not in. Penn State is 5-3 in conference and have wins against Purdue and Michigan; however, they have a 7-game stretch that I’m not optimistic about with contests versus Wisconsin and Minnesota and trips to East Lansing, Ann Arbor, Lafayette, Champaign, and Columbus. 5-3 can easily become 7-8. As for my dear Friars, they are 5-2 in the Big East yet all five wins have come against the six weakest teams. If they split their next four against Syracuse, @ UConn, Villanova, and @ West Virginia, then they have an argument. That said, PC lost second half leads to Georgetown and Marquette in their league losses. A bad omen.

The Switches
* Switched Michigan State and Wake Forest to avoid 2 ACC teams as 1 and 2 seeds in the same region.
* Switched Notre Dame and Memphis due to a seeding conflict.
* Tennessee slips to the 10th seed line resulting from having already played Kansas.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Duke (ACC), Pittsburgh
2: Oklahoma (Big XII), Louisville, Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest
3: Texas, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Clemson
4: Purdue, Syracuse, Illinois, Arizona State (PAC-10)
5: Minnesota, Marquette, Xavier (A-10), Memphis (C-USA)
6: Notre Dame, UCLA, Georgetown, West Virginia
7: Ohio State, Davidson (Southern), Kentucky (SEC), California
8: Florida, Villanova, Kansas, UNLV (MWC)
9: Miami-FL, St. Mary’s, Missouri, Virginia Tech
10: Michigan, Baylor, Washington, Tennessee
11: Dayton, Florida State, Utah State (WAC), Illinois State (MVC)
12: Siena (Metro Atlantic), Wisconsin, South Carolina, VCU (CAA)
13: Boston College, USC, Portland State (Big Sky), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
14: Miami-Ohio (MAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), VMI (Big South), Vermont (America East)
15: North Dakota State (Summit), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Cornell (Ivy), Robert Morris (Northeast), Prairie View A&M (SWAC)

Last Four In: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Boston College, USC
Last Four Out: BYU, Penn State, Providence, Texas A&M
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 8/12
Big East: 9/16
Pac-10: 5/10
Big XII: 5/12
SEC: 4/12
West Coast: 2/8
A-10: 2/14

Updated on 1/26 at 725pm ET

NCAA Tournament Projections -- March 16, 2008 (FINAL)

LAST FOUR IN: St. Joseph's, Arizona State, Villanova, Illinois State
LAST FOUR OUT: South Alabama, Oregon, VCU, Ohio State
NEXT FOUR OUT: Virginia Tech , Ole Miss, Syracuse, UMass

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA), Kansas (Big XII)
2: Texas, Tennessee, Wisconsin (Big Ten), Georgetown
3: Duke, Stanford, Pittsburgh (Big East), Louisville
4: Xavier, Drake (MVC), Michigan State, USC
5: UConn, Clemson, Butler (Horizon), Purdue
6: Vanderbilt, Marquette, Notre Dame, Washington State
7: Indiana, Arkansas, Kent State (MAC), Gonzaga
8: BYU, Davidson (Southern), Miami-FL, Texas A&M
9: West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Mississippi State
10: St. Mary's, Kentucky, Arizona, UNLV (MWC)
11: Temple (A-10), Baylor, St. Joseph's, Arizona State
12: Villanova, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
13: Oral Roberts (Summit), Georgia (SEC), San Diego (WCC), Siena (Metro Atlantic)
14: Boise State (WAC), Cornell (Ivy), Winthrop (Big South), American (Patriot)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Coppin State (MEAC)

Note of Interest: Coppin State is the first 20-loss team ever to make the field. Andy Katz of ESPN is reporting that Coppin State will face Mount St. Mary's in the play-in game; thus, avoiding a battle between the two teams with the lowest RPI, both of whom are Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs).

Let's see how much things differ from our early Sunday Morning Bracket Projections.

NCAA Tournament Projections - March 16, 2008 (Morning)

Here’s our seeding schedule …

To appease your bubble fix, here is our Last Four In, Last Four Out and the Next Four Out.

Last Four In: Arizona State, Villanova, Illinois State, South Alabama
Last Four Out: VCU, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, UMass, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin

Herb Sendek won't be upset with our inclusion of the Sun Devils

Credit: CNN/SI

Tonight, Temple took home the A-14 crown. Speaking of Temple, their surge is part of a prevailing theme at PHSports this year. Be it Temple, Kentucky or staying with George Mason as long as we possibly could, we have been able to spot trends or teams on the rise before everyone else. Not to mention, we had Pittsburgh as the top #4 seed prior to tonight’s home win at the Garden.

Quickly, Arkansas is a #5 seed on the expectation that they defeat Georgia by 15 or more points. That’s ambitious, but legs have to give at some point, no? How many more games can Georgia pull out when their best player (Sundiata Gaines) fouls out?

On the 7th seed line, we know it’s harsh to put Indiana there with a dynamic duo of Gordon and White. If Indiana can get a consistent 3rd guy, then #2 seeds had better start praying. They may be a #6 seed for us tomorrow.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The UNADULTERATED Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA), Kansas (Big XII)
2: Texas, Tennessee, Wisconsin (Big Ten), Georgetown
3: Duke, Stanford, Pittsburgh (Big East), Louisville
4: Xavier, Drake (MVC), Michigan State, USC
5: UConn, Arkansas (SEC), Purdue, Butler (Horizon)
6: Vanderbilt, Marquette, Clemson, Notre Dame
7: Washington State, Indiana, Kent State (MAC), Gonzaga
8: BYU, Davidson (Southern), Miami-FL, Texas A&M
9: West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Kentucky
10: Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Arizona, UNLV (MWC)
11: Temple (A-10), Baylor, St. Joseph’s, Arizona State
12: Villanova, Illinois State, South Alabama, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), San Diego (WCC), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Boise State (WAC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
15: Cal State Fullerton (Big West), Winthrop (Big South), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC), Coppin State (MEAC)

IN: Boise State, Coppin State
OUT: New Mexico State, Morgan State


Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

2008 NCAA Projections - March 12, 2008

Last night, the committee arrived in Indianapolis. Tomorrow, they will submit their list of “lock teams”. As of the end of play on Tuesday night, we estimate that the teams listed in seed lines #1-7 are considered to be “locks” for the NCAA Tournament. While I love what Kentucky has done, they are truly one injury away from being on the outside looking in despite an impressive 12-4 record in the SEC and having crushed the subjective eye test since the Vanderbilt debacle.

That leaves 18 bids for the taking. What does that mean? In brief, the next four days of basketball will go a long way in determining who is in and out (Sunday is not a big moving day for tournament seedings, unless your name is Joe Lunardi and the clock has just struck 5:50pm ET). In other words, no team beyond Mississippi State excluding automatic bids are safe.

Here are Paymon’s early thoughts …

• If teams are considered by team and not WCC #3, it will be hard to unseat St. Mary’s.
• Davidson deserves a massive jump in the seedings because they took care of business. Because some bubble teams will win unexpectedly, they will likely become a #10 seed.
• The fate of VCU and South Alabama from here on out may be determined by their opponents who have games yet to play. The decider is multifactorial. First, VCU won its conference by 3 games. Second, they won three neutral/away games in non-conference play.
• I’m having a difficult time understanding why Arizona State is out of Joe Lunardi’s bracket. They earned the #5 seed in the nation’s best conference; a conference which uses a round-robin scheduling mechanism. In doing so, they defeated the conference’s #2, #4, #6 and #7 (sweep) teams in addition to the A-14’s #1 team. In a field with such a dearth of good wins, the Sun Devils don’t have enough bad losses to counteract their good wins.
• If Florida and Ole Miss BOTH make the SEC semifinals, it will be a play-in/elimination game.
• While results are important, scorelines on the neutral court play a role as well. If a team such as Ohio State loses badly against Michigan State, then their recent home resume-padders are diluted. This may result in an invitation to the Not Important Tournament.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, which is highlighted by over ten hours of opening round coverage of the Big East Tournament, Clement tackles four games that are on his mind. To no one’s surprise who reads this blog religiously, we start with …

1) Big East Tournament: Syracuse vs. Villanova
-Far from fans of South Alabama and Gonzaga after Monday Night, the Orange and the Wildcats both sit at 9-9 in the Big East. Both own a win on the other’s homecourt, both have underachieved quite a bit this season and both are in just about every media pundits “last four out”. This game obviously appears to be an elimination game. The loser stands little to no chance of securing anything but a 2-seed in the NIT. In fact, the winner may simply be the Big East team first left out. A win over Georgetown would be vital for either to stake a truly legitimate claim. The problem is: if all these at-large bids keep closing up, is a semi-final appearance truly enough for either Big East .500 squad?

2) Big East Tournament Opening Round: West Virginia vs. Providence
-A home win against Pitt this past week almost assuredly locked the Mountaineers into the last “safe bid” in the Big East. Right? Not so fast, especially when you consider how strong the media has been pushing them onto the bubble and their somewhat hidden #5 seed in the Big East Tournament. Not to mention that 10+-win in the Big East is nice, but not as nice considering they now play an 18 game schedule (thank you, Doug Gottlieb). Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. If WVU loses, and perhaps Syracuse, Villanova or a surprise team makes a Big East run, could WVU be entrenched in bubble fever come 6pm on Sunday night? My inside sources tell me yes (thank you, Peter Vecsey).

3) Pac-10 Tournament Opening Round: Arizona vs. Oregon State
-Typically, there wouldn’t be any consideration given to a team as terrible as the Beavers this season. However, with their loss to Oregon this past Saturday night, #2 SOS Wildcats (come on, that’s their motto these days), opened the door for potentially two Pac-10 teams with losing conference records getting in (it’s never happened to one Pac-10 team before). The one thing Arizona can do to help itself most is crush OSU and take out the “are-they-struggling” Cardinal. The worst: lose to Oregon State and any SOS may have to go straight out the window.

4) A-10 Tournament Opening Round: Charlotte vs. Rhode Island
-In A-10 play, Xavier is easily a sure-fire tournament team. However, the rest of the conference appears much murkier than it did only six weeks ago. In fact, this matchup of #6 Charlotte vs. #11 Rhode Island may lead to an interesting quarterfinal matchup against #3 UMass. The Minutemen appear the safest bet to acquire an at-large bid, for now. In truth, eyes will be focused intently on potential upsets that could prevent a tricky A-10 final four: Xavier/St. Joe’s & UMass/Temple could. A nightmarish scenario unfolds if Dayton upsets top-seed Xavier in the quarterfinals. Don’t even get me started on that…

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon)
6: Washington State, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Marquette
7: Clemson, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, BYU, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL
9: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Davidson (Southern), Arkansas
10: Baylor, Arizona, UNLV (MWC), St. Mary’s
11: Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia, Illinois State
12: Ohio State, Temple, VCU, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), San Diego (WCC), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Illinois State, Ohio State, Temple, VCU
Last Four Out: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, UMass
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Dayton, UAB, Ole Miss
On The Radar: Maryland, New Mexico, Florida

IN: Western Kentucky, San Diego, VCU
OUT: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 5/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Colonial: 2/12
A-10: 2/14