Saturday, March 07, 2009

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 7, 2009

If you were a bubble team and you had a game this week, there’s a good chance you fell out as a result of losing a game that you should have won. Among those ranks were Georgetown, Florida, Notre Dame and Arizona – all of whom lost games that they either should have won or absolutely needed to. Replacing them are Oklahoma State and St. Mary’s (welcome back, Patty Mills), and two teams seemingly chosen from out of thin air – Providence and Auburn. The argument in favor of Auburn is their surge to 2nd place in the SEC West gives them momentum leading into their game against LSU as well as the SEC Tournament. (Among the automatic bids, I was forced to discard Belmont after their loss to East Tennessee State.)

On the cusp of the tournament are Texas A&M, Rhode Island and South Carolina. The Aggies are on a roll, having won their last 5, but how many of them were they not supposed to win? A win versus Missouri assuredly makes the win streak legitimate and puts them in the field (for now). The same can be said about Rhode Island, though they lack a marquee win (best win: @ Penn State). As for South Carolina, 10-6 would have been good enough had they defeated Tennessee at home on Thursday. Without that win, the ‘Cocks are a big 0-fer against the RPI Top 50.

When you think of the first 12 teams out of my field and who can benefit the most, look no further than the Cougars of Washington State. If they somehow defeat their rivals (Washington) on the road, they will have claimed road victories against the 1st, 2nd and 4th place teams in the conference – all of whom are unquestioned tournament teams. Despite their 13 losses, no other team on the bubble can stake that claim. Meanwhile, Michigan (@ Minnesota) and Northwestern (@ Ohio State) may knock Ohio State from the 7th spot with road victories.

Who Slid One Seed Line?
Kansas State, St. Mary’s

Who Benefited by One Seed Line?
Providence, Virginia Tech

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at

The Seedings
1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)
2: Louisville, Michigan State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big XII), Wake Forest
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Xavier (A-10), Clemson, Marquette, Missouri
5: Florida State, Illinois, California, Butler (Horizon)
6: Tennessee (SEC), Syracuse, Gonzaga, UCLA
7: Penn State, Purdue, Boston College, Texas
8: West Virginia, LSU, Arizona State, Utah
9: Wisconsin, Creighton (MVC), BYU, Minnesota
10: Ohio State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), UNLV (MWC), Dayton
11: Providence, Maryland, Davidson (Southern), Virginia Tech
12: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Utah St. (WAC), St. Mary’s (WCC)
13: Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Vermont (America East), VCU (CAA)
14: North Dakota State (Summit), Buffalo (MAC), American (Patriot), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
15: CORNELL (Ivy), Weber State (Big Sky), VMI (Big South), Robert Morris (Northeast),
16: E. Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Morgan State (MEAC), Long Beach State (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s, Providence, Auburn, E. Tennessee State
OUT: Georgetown, Florida, Notre Dame, Arizona, Belmont

Last Four In: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Providence, Auburn
Last Four Out: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Arizona
Next Four Out: Michigan, Georgetown, Northwestern, Miami-FL
Next Four Out: Washington State, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Tulsa

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12
Big Ten: 7/11
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 4/10
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
A-10: 2/14
West Coast: 2/9


Anonymous said...

As much as I want it to be true, Virginia Tech cannot be in based on only their two away wins.

Paymon said...

With a win against FSU (down 7 at halftime), they have to be in (now).

That said, if they lose, they will need two wins to be in (one of them coming against UNC/Duke/Wake).