10 Friday Night Thoughts: Clement-Style

Last night was so much fun…let’s do it again!!!

{Check out Thursday night's reactions HERE}

Perhaps a few of us here at PHSports were a little too rough on the over-seeded Sooners. Perhaps.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Ladies and Gentlemen…we have our buzzer beater!
It might not be a clip of “the shot”, but it’s hilarious nevertheless. As for “the shot”, you had to see it live to truly enjoy it. (I was teaching Economic Systems to 8^th graders, lucky me!) Either way, we got our buzzer beater and we all but automatically have our Cinderella-story out of the West Region (more below).

2) UCONN’t beat the Toreros.
Call me a hater, but I LOVE when opening nights respectively have Arizona and UCONN losing. Especially when the Huskies – who had lost team-MVP AJ Price to injury – lose as a 4-seed to arguably the WCC’s 3^rd team. Yeah, I’m hatin!

3) Bracketbusting.
You might’ve had Drake or UCONN in the Sweet Sixteen (likely taking on UCLA); however, I doubt many of you had Western Kentucky or San Diego in that spot. Ahhh, the beauty of the tournament. 4 and 5 seeds are often the most vulnerable teams out there. Not to mention, I LOVE when UCONN loses. I LOVE IT! Meanwhile, in the night caps, Vanderbilt trailed throughout (brilliant idea picking them to go to the Sweet 16, Clement) to high-flying Siena and ended up being the second 4-seed of the day to bow out early (far too early in my opinion).

4) 1-Seeds hold serve. No surprise.
Mount St. Mary’s might’ve kept pace with the Heels for the first ten minutes; yet, they clearly proved why they were contestants in the play-in game and why the Heels are the #1 overall seed. Ditto for Memphis and TX-Arlington, a game I didn't watch one second of.

5) Those pesky 8/9 games.
You get Oregon, who is nowhere near a 9-seed, matched up against an erratic 8^th-seeded Mississippi State. Good luck. Next up, you have an overhyped Indiana-team going against an under-the-radar Arkansas-squad. Good luck, again. We know who won. Question is: did you get BOTH games right?

6) Bruce Pearl…isn’t happy. Brad Stevens is ecstatic!
Win a game by 15 points and the majority of the media and nation are thoroughly disgusted with your performance. Bruce Pearl will light up like a firecracker (or a Mentos in Diet Coke) over the next 24-hours enough to make sure the Vols are more focused and more physical, especially since Butler looked THAT good. South Alabama wasn’t bad, it’s just the Bulldogs were again THAT good. Their three-point shooting was phenomenal (specifically Pete Campbell’s torching 8-10 from behind the arc performance) and Butler reminded quite a few of us of their potential. How they earned a 7-seed still baffles me. However, I know I’ll be in front of a TV for this matchup Sunday afternoon.

7) OK-lahoma!
They were obviously an overrated 6-seed, but was it fair to completely disrespect the Sooners? Probably not. Was it also a mistake to completely overrate a St. Joe’s team who got in by beating Xavier twice? Definitely. The Sooners, led by former VCU head coach Jeff Capel (plug!) shot nearly 60% the entire game as they throttled the second-to-last remaining A-10 squad. Boomer Sooner 72-64!

8) Oregon Trail
Oregon didn’t deserve to be in the tournament. They don’t deserve analysis. Thankfully, Mississippi State overcame an early deficit and won. Thank you, Starkville. Bye bye, Quack Attack.

9) Which Indiana team showed up?
CBS was asking it over and over and over…and over. In the end, Indiana will most likely be left asking themselves, “What might’ve happened if Sampson was never dismissed from the team?” Of course, a more fair question might be, “What if Sampson never violated any of the NCAA rules, again”. Nevertheless, Sonny Weems and a somewhat underrated Arkansas squad (their 9-seed was mainly a result of the SEC Final loss to Georgia) took out the Hooisers and pitted themselves against white-hot UNC. Not much of a reward, huh?

10) Late night…FEAST???
To be honest, Memphis/TX-Arlington & Louisville/Boise State seemed like snorers two days before they began. In the end, both games lacked drama. Both cruised to victories in the late night hours. However, there was definite intrigue on viewing the likes of Eric Gordon/DJ White/Patrick Beverly in one matchup and the wide-open 5/12 matchup of Clemson v. Villanova. While the aforementioned Razorback victory wasn’t filled with too much intrigue, there was more than enough reasons to view Villanova’s impressive 18-point comeback against the Clemson Tigers (the only one of four ACC teams to lose in the opening round). With more victories than any other 12-seed in nearly 30 years, Jay Wright’s crew reminded the nation of their talent and their grit. With Vanderbilt’s loss to Siena, we now have two brackets in which a 12 or 13 will advance to the Sweet Sixteen (Siena/Villanova in the Midwest and Western Kentucky/San Diego out West). The real question soon becomes: is Villanova capable of being a legit Cinderella?

I just can’t help myself. Time for numero 11!

11) Saturday…Saturday…Saturday Saturday Saturday
Tons of matchups I want to see tomorrow. TONS! Wisconsin/Kansas State (who dictates the pace early and often), Notre Dame/WASU (arguably Thursday’s top two performers), Marquette/Stanford (speed vs. size), and Pittsburgh/Michigan State (who’s hotter than Pitt or more schizo than MSU?). WOW. Not to mention, A&M has the talent (I said talent) to keep its game with UCLA more than interesting and Xavier remains the wild-card the entire media seems to be rooting for (even a #3-seed) out West.

A&M has tons of talent, like Josh Carter, but are they disciplined enough to maintain focus under a suffocating Bruins defensive attack?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

See you later today!!!

Enjoy the day.

NCAA Tournament Projections - March 16, 2008 (Morning)

Here’s our seeding schedule …

To appease your bubble fix, here is our Last Four In, Last Four Out and the Next Four Out.

Last Four In: Arizona State, Villanova, Illinois State, South Alabama
Last Four Out: VCU, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, UMass, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin

Herb Sendek won't be upset with our inclusion of the Sun Devils

Credit: CNN/SI

Tonight, Temple took home the A-14 crown. Speaking of Temple, their surge is part of a prevailing theme at PHSports this year. Be it Temple, Kentucky or staying with George Mason as long as we possibly could, we have been able to spot trends or teams on the rise before everyone else. Not to mention, we had Pittsburgh as the top #4 seed prior to tonight’s home win at the Garden.

Quickly, Arkansas is a #5 seed on the expectation that they defeat Georgia by 15 or more points. That’s ambitious, but legs have to give at some point, no? How many more games can Georgia pull out when their best player (Sundiata Gaines) fouls out?

On the 7th seed line, we know it’s harsh to put Indiana there with a dynamic duo of Gordon and White. If Indiana can get a consistent 3rd guy, then #2 seeds had better start praying. They may be a #6 seed for us tomorrow.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The UNADULTERATED Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA), Kansas (Big XII)
2: Texas, Tennessee, Wisconsin (Big Ten), Georgetown
3: Duke, Stanford, Pittsburgh (Big East), Louisville
4: Xavier, Drake (MVC), Michigan State, USC
5: UConn, Arkansas (SEC), Purdue, Butler (Horizon)
6: Vanderbilt, Marquette, Clemson, Notre Dame
7: Washington State, Indiana, Kent State (MAC), Gonzaga
8: BYU, Davidson (Southern), Miami-FL, Texas A&M
9: West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Kentucky
10: Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Arizona, UNLV (MWC)
11: Temple (A-10), Baylor, St. Joseph’s, Arizona State
12: Villanova, Illinois State, South Alabama, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), San Diego (WCC), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Boise State (WAC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
15: Cal State Fullerton (Big West), Winthrop (Big South), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC), Coppin State (MEAC)

IN: Boise State, Coppin State
OUT: New Mexico State, Morgan State


Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

Julian Wright: Will He Stay Or Will He Go?

Julian Wright: Will he return for his junior year?
(Credit: www.lawrence.com)

Hello, Lawrence. Your worst April nightmare may come true a little more than two weeks after the 40-minute nightmare imposed upon you by UCLA in Sacramento. That's because Kansas sophomore Julian Wright is now considering entering the NBA Draft after stating all season that he'd return for his junior year.

In fact, Wright has promised his mother that he would not leave college without earning a degree. At present, the 6'8" forward is expected to graduate next spring. Nevertheless, Wright is in a difficult situation, as he will likely be a top 10 draft pick and possibly in the top 5. If Wright enters the draft and is selected between picks 3 and 10, he is due to make between $1.57 and $2.91 million in his rookie campaign (source: Hoops Hype)

If Wright declares for the NBA Draft, it is unknown whether he will sign with an agent immediately. In the case that he leaves, the Jayhawks will still return a frontline consisting of Sasha Kaun, Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson. Four-star recruit Cole Aldrich (6'10" 245 lbs) will be coming to Lawrence this fall and can play some key minutes for the Jayhawks, especially to fill potential minutes left by the aforementioned Wright.

Other News
Two coaching vacancies seem likely to be filled.

- Arkansas has come to an agreement with South Alabama head coach John Pelphrey. The 38-year-old also starred at Kentucky and served as an assistant for Billy Donovan at Marshall and Florida . Pelphrey will inherit five returning starters from a NCAA tournament team, led by SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverley; however, this is clouded by news surfacing that two players tested positive for marijuana and another being in serious academic trouble.

- Wichita State head coach Mark Turgeon is expected to tour the campus of Texas A&M in hopes of being Billy Gillispie's successor. Upon his return from College Station, Turgeon will meet with his returnees, including rising seniors P.J. Couisnard and Sean Ogirri, and inform them of his decision. Following the Shockers run to the Sweet 16 in 2006, Turgeon was given a contract extension paying him $750,000 annually. That number may be doubled if hired by Texas A&M. According to CBS Sportsline, if Turgeon bolts for A&M, then Wichita State will move quickly to fill the vacancy. An early list of candidates includes Wichita State assistant coach Scott Spinelli, Northern Colorado head coach Tad Boyle, Oral Roberts head coach Scott Sutton and Winthrop head coach Gregg Marshall.

Kentucky Resolution, Heath Firing Fallout, Iowa Chasing Pearl?

With what some considered "over-coverage" of the NFL coaching carousel, you had better expect the same for my forte, college basketball. In college basketball, the 'carousel' is more like a circular metropolis. Instead of 32 coaching staffs, you've got more than ten times that number. The very second that a name is swirled around as a potential candidate, universities and boosters start ante-ing up to keep their beloved coaches. It's a different animal than pro sports, but a business nonetheless.

Kentucky Resolution?
Last Thursday, Tubby Smith left the blue grass to freeze his ..., well, you know. Since then, numerous analysts, most notably Andy Katz of ESPN, have said that many coaches are in line to benefit financially from the Kentucky vacancy even if they have no intention of taking the job. Earlier this week, John Calipari agreed to an extension through 2011-12. Also, sources report that newly-anointed basketball school Texas A&M will do its best to match any offers for head coach Billy Gillispie. And let's not forget about former UK assistant and current god of Gainesville Billy Donovan. He's going to make bank whether he's at Florida, Kentucky, or the Miami Heat. Shall any of these coaches leave their posts, coaches from lesser programs will occupy their posts and move up a few tax brackets. For those who read my post suggesting former players such as Ford and Pelphrey as coaching candidates for this position, they are not even being mentioned by the real media (aka people who have coaches' digits), so I'm content in ceasing conversation about the pair.

Heath Firing Fallout
Staying in the SEC (said with a Tony Barnhardt-esque southern drawl), Arkansas fired its head coach Stan Heath yesterday in what was considered a surprise to all of us except for Heath, who made his second trip to the NCAA Tournament in as many years. In his defense, Heath's team - a much younger one than the previous year - won 21 games; however,winning 21 nowadays isn't your father's 21 when considering that most D-1 schools play in excess of 30 games per season.

Many, including myself, think that the firing was made with a successor already in mind. Although Heath was somewhat successful, his results were always compared to his predecessor's (Nolan Richardson), and in comparison, it's not even close. The Heath style of play isn't exactly the appealing 40 Minutes of Hell either. With that said, everyone returns from an Arkansas team that is expected to win the SEC West (and not with a 8-8 record), making the job more appealing than at first glance. College sports are the only game in town, to boot. For those reasons, expect Arkansas AD Frank Broyles to make a concerted play for the aforementioned Gillispie and possibly Nebraska head coach Doc Sadler who is more of a contingency. Given the athletic makeup of their roster, Arkansas should consider giving VCU a call to see if head coach Anthony Grant is available. Nevertheless, I expect them to go after a more proven head coach despite the obvious upside (yes, that word means the NBA Draft is only 3 months away). Whomever he is, expect him to be paid, as Broyles expects to make a big splash before he dives into retirement.

Iowa's Chase for Pearl Rendered Useless
Now that Steve Alford has left the Iowa rebuilding project (Blair Witch Project) for the New Mexico rebuilding project (Tony Rich Project), the Hawkeyes are chasing former assistant and current Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl. Hoping for the nostalgia hook, Iowa received permission from the Tennessee AD to speak with Pearl, but he rebuffed the overtures informing Iowa that he is not interested in their head coaching position. For his troubles, Pearl earns a one-year extension through 2013.

In my opinion, given the saturation of big-name/talented head coaches in the Big Ten, it may be career suicide for whomever is audacious enough to take the reins at Iowa during a rebuilding period (notice how I did not say "year"). This may result in Iowa hiring from within the extended Iowa family or going after a coach of a mid-major program with ties to Midwest recruiting.

Responses to Selection Sunday
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi

Bracket Projection Results

TEAMS SELECTED: 63/65 (32/34 at-large)
PREDICTED WITHIN ONE LINE: 49/65
EXACT SEEDS PREDICTED: 27/65

At this time last year, I was not a member of the blogosphere, but I did predict 62 of 65 teams correctly. After last year’s committee focused on conference allocation, I still went with my better judgment rather than unconventional idiocy. I’ll take solace in picking Syracuse and Drexel over the two Big Ten strugglers, Purdue and Illinois.

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Big Ten love?

When the committee says that it doesn’t look at last year’s results, it’s true when it comes to the Big Ten. If you recall, the Big Ten didn’t even make it out of the first weekend last year. It would be ignorant to suggest that a conference representative won’t make it out of the first weekend, but frankly, the Big Ten was not that good this season. Ohio State and Wisconsin were stellar and the rest were either mediocre of just plain bad.

Sure, Illinois had 11 conference wins, but six were against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn St.). Purdue had 10 conference wins, half of which were against the same bottom three. They even lost a game against Minnesota. How many times did either team defeat Ohio State and Wisconsin? Squadoosh. How many RPI top 25 teams did either team defeat? Squadoosh.

As for Indiana, how on earth do they get a 7 seed? They were 5-8 against the RPI top 50, 5-10 on road and neutral courts, stunk up the court ever since they defeated Wisconsin at home. After that signature win, Indiana went 1-5 against teams not named Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn St. That’s unacceptable, and the Hoosiers were better suited for the 10/11 lines rather than the 7 line.

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Egregious Seeding Errors

To be honest, this is where the tournament committee really messed up with this bracket. Neither of us work for CBS, ESPN, or any of the networks who might feel they need to show some allegiance towards the selectors. Instead, we're calling them out, specifically the vague Gary Walters (who interviewed terribly on ESPN), for a variety of reasons. Point number of my complaints with this bracket: egregious seeds. We realize they have to protect certain regions and certain potential matchups, but some of the seedings had no excuse. We’ve already pointed out Indiana’s undeserved 7-seed. Let’s analyze four others that stood out as boneheaded mistakes mere seconds after I heard them.

1) Virginia as a 4-seed

This is a talented team, especially the backcourt duo, that clearly got boosted up 2 or 3 seeds. Sure, they took out Virginia Tech and won a share of the regular-season ACC title. But look at these losses down the stretch (@Miami, @Wake Forest, and in the ACC tournament NC State). Away from John Paul Jones, the 'Hoos were just 3-9. Did we stutter? There is no way this team is deserving of the four-seed. Unfortunately, this will become a recurring theme as we study some of the mistakes below.

2) Butler (AKA Miss November) as a 5-seed

Obviously, this seed was a reward for the Preseason NIT, which was almost 6 months ago. They shared the Horizon regular-season title with Wright State and were beaten again in the conference tournament finale by five to the Raiders. Despite being a fun team to watch and beloved by a lot of the media, Butler should be playing in an 8/9 game.

3) UNLV as a 7-seed

Yes, the Mountain West Conference has struggled in the Big Dance since its formation (5-21). However, the Runnin’ Rebels had an impressive RPI (10^th) and won 11 of their last 13 (with losses against San Diego St. and BYU mixed in-between). Look no further than the two teams listed above to see why the Rebels were shafted with the tough 7-seed.

4) Purdue as a 9-seed

What a surprise! Another Big Ten team getting far too much pub for “good losses”. Their RPI (45) is far from attractive as a 9-seed. If you want to talk about good wins out of conference (Virginia and who else?), then you better discuss the bad ones in-and-out (@Indiana State, @Minnesota, @Michigan). Outside of inconsistent-at-best Big Ten play, I really wonder why Purdue was rewarded over VCU, Creighton, Old Dominion, and some other conference champion teams as well as those already being mentioned as being left out.

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An Overall Poor Job By The Committee

Again, I'm not here to pretend I could do better, but I know people (no, not Joe Lunardi) who actually watched the games and utilized more useful indicators in determining the best 34 at-large teams. With this blog as my podium, I’m also more than in the right to complain and ask the essential question “why?”

Why did Arkansas, according to the tournament committee, merit the final at-large birth [over the likes of Syracuse and Drexel] before the result to the Florida game occurred?

Why did Old Dominion deserve to be in and Drexel be out from the CAA? Why was the CAA given less respect than the A-10 and Horizon League?

Why was Syracuse snubbed from the field entirely? Why did Illinois and Purdue get in with less quality wins, similar futility against the RPI top 50, and weaker road and neutral court production?

Why were only 6 at-large births given to mid-majors after only 8 last year?

Why doesn’t the tournament committee watch the Sunday games in detail?

Was Akron, with that shot-clock discrepancy, completely forgotten with just cause for an at-large bid?

How much will the tournament miss guys like Al Thornton, Cartier Martin, Demetrius Nichols, Frank Elegar, and Mario Boggans (didn’t deserve to be, but an amazing talent)?

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Clement’s Overall Thoughts

I’m not gonna lie, I’m heartbroken that Syracuse didn’t get in. Even more so with Drexel. With allegiances to my favorite team (the Orange) and my favorite conference (the CAA), I know I’m biased. However, I also believe that the Orange (3 wins against the top 25, 10 wins in conference, & .500 record on the road in conference) had enough quality wins to get in (Georgetown by 14, @Marquette handily, Villanova handily, @Providence on senior night), but I also realize our out-of-conference schedule was lacking as well as having losses to @St. John’s, @UCONN, and Drexel. We did lose games to Oklahoma St. and Wichita St., which turned out to be bad losses in retrospect despite both teams playing very well at the time. [Countless teams hung their seeds and selections on similar early victories and tough in-conference defeats.]

The real travesty (wow, I’m agreeing with Dick Vitale) had to be Drexel who had strong wins (wins @Syracuse, @Villanova, and @Creighton in a BracketBusters game) that outweighed the bad losses (@Penn, @Rider, @William & Mary). Yet, they were criticized for conference play – a double standard when thinking of Illinois, Purdue, Stanford, and especially Arkansas.

Staying with the talking heads, Jay Bilas made a major mistake during Bracketology tonight. Losses to VCU and ODU (even a sweep) are not bad losses for Drexel, since both teams are in and deserved to be in the tournament. An ever bigger error was from Doug Gottlieb, who is ten times better on radio than on TV. He claimed Air Force was snubbed. All they had to do was win one of their last four games and they folded.

In the end, I’ll ride my VCU Rams as long as they can go and enjoy the tournament as much as I can. Even with the obvious insight that ‘Cuse & Drexel would’ve struggled in tough first-round matchups, I still hate the fact I’ll spend the majority of this tournament rooting against people rather than rooting for them.

Message to Coach Boeheim: Please schedule tougher matchups out of conference earlier outside of New York.

Message to Bruiser Flint: You did everything you could and still got screwed. Screwed.

Committee Tidbit Slip

Gary Walters, chairperson of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, said that one or two teams that may not have been in the field could get into the tournament today. The statement was in response to a question asking if the tournament field was set.

The one is obviously NC State. The "or two" is Arkansas, meaning that they're not viewed as highly as yours truly. At the end of the day, the Razorbacks may not be in my field, but I'm convinced that they have a stronger resume than both Big Ten bubble teams. Nonetheless, the jury is out.

Losing My Mind

The last two days are exactly what the mid-majors who couldn't seal feared. Last night, Xavier and Nevada fell in their respective tournaments, allowing for a second seed that may not have existed. At present, this likely puts Stanford and Florida State on the outs. Teams like Old Dominion, Drexel, and Missouri State all had a legitimate shot at earning an at-large bid; however, things have changed in the last 48 hours.

Thought to be amongst the dead, Oklahoma State rose from the ashes to defeat A&M last night. Make no mistake about it, if the Cowboys make the field without winning the automatic bid in the Big XII conference, it will be a travesty. You cannot go 2-8 from February 1st onward and then rediscover form for 3 days only to lose on Sunday to Kansas (even if it's a "good loss"). That's still 5-9 and that's not good enough when you have stronger at-large candidates.

Speaking of the "good loss", I hate that concept during Championship Week. Victories during conference tournaments are already overblown (i.e. overvalued by the committee) as is, so we don't need to pat Kansas State on the rear for losing by six to Kansas on a neutral court. Kansas State will receive heavy consideration, but I feel their resume is not strong enough to garner an at-large bid.

Before I go further, let me extend my congratulatory statement to Arkansas and Stan Heath's short-term job security. They were my last team in the field prior to the SEC tournament and after three more wins, they will be the fifth representative from the SEC.

Meanwhile, in the Big Ten, this is where I'm losing my mind. Indiana's resume looks weaker by the second. The Illini's doesn't look horrible, but 6 of their 11 conference wins are against the bottom three Big Ten squads. They're like the girl who'd receive the "good from far, far from good" label -- but that change with a victory against Wisconsin today. As for the Spartans, they are 3-10 in neutral court and road games, yet they have the 9th-rated SOS nationally and a recent signature win against Wisconsin on their home floor. With respect to Purdue, they are another team who may receive extended consideration due to their grit during two close defeats to Ohio State - it's not something I agree with, but it's something that will happen. Count on it.

But like I said, a lot has changed in the last 48 hours, and as a result, I'm losing my mind. The pieces will continue to fall in place and the story will unfold - just not at the speed that we want it to do so.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Washington St.	Maryland	Memphis	Southern Illinois
4	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Marquette	Duke	Vanderbilt
6	UNLV	Nevada	Virginia	Texas
7	Georgia Tech	Louisville	BYU	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Texas Tech	Creighton	Villanova
9	Butler	Xavier	Notre Dame	Michigan St.
10	Winthrop	Air Force	USC	Boston College
11	Syracuse	Missouri St.	Old Dominion	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Davidson	Akron	Gonzaga
13	Arkansas	Purdue	Holy Cross	Drexel
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Siena	Belmont	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3