Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

Chalk Full of ... Chalk

Last night's games consisted of three great ones totaling a five-point difference and a blowout ... of 9 points. The first two games are exactly why everyone should (if possible) purchase the DirecTV package or watch the game at a bar with similar amenities. Here are some quick hits on the last night's games.

Kansas 61 Southern Illinois 58
Dear Big Ten Conference: When you argue that your teams play a grinding style due to great defense, both of these teams probably think that you're using the term "great" too liberally. Kansas didn't exactly take care of business and this biased guy thinks they benefited from some zebra love. In the first half, a no-call on a shot clock violation led to two points for the Jayhawks. In the second half, defensive goaltending was not called on a play where Jamal Tatum was fouled. There was also a shot clock violation called against the Salukis in which you can see (in slow motion) the change in trajectory after Mullins' three-pointer shaved the rim. Of course, Matt Shaw missed a gimmie layup in the last three minutes and Kansas shot 60% for the game. Credit must go to Russell Robinson who did a stellar defensive job all night. The Jayhawks go on to face the UCLA Bruins on Saturday.

UCLA 64 Pittsburgh 55
This game was as boring as the scoreline looks. The game was a three-possession battle for the majority of the game and whenever Pittsburgh, UCLA had an answer and vice versa. Classic Panther non-execution in big games and Aaron Gray was inconsistent as we hinted in our preview. Levon Kendall was underutilized and struggled when he was. Afflalo is still struggling, but he's nailing everything at the line. Pitt still lacks that go-to guard who they can rely on late in games. On Saturday, UCLA absolutely needs Josh Shipp and Michael Roll to nail jump shots.

Memphis 65 Texas A&M 64
Last Saturday, Texas A&M defeated Louisville in what was considered a road game by many in the know. Last night, Memphis got a win in similar unfriendly circumstances and credit must go to Calipari for motivating his players, because the media - real and fake - have lampooned the Tigers for chalking up easy wins in Conference USA. Douglas-Roberts did not show any signs of being injured and the Tigers at all times knew that they belonged in this game and in the Elite 8. When a 64% free throw shooter knocks two down cold with 3.1 seconds remaining to take a one-point lead, you know this team has a higher calling. On a side note, Acie Law IV was amazing this year and is the only guy who is capable of winning the Naismith Award not named Durant.

Ohio State 85 Tennessee 84
If you're a Vols fan, you're probably on the top of a building right now. Ohio State has almost as many lives as Jack Bauer. Okay, maybe not that many. A 20-point lead is relative. If Tennessee is up 20 on you, you have a chance to come back if you are a very good team. If Southern Illinois is up 20 on you, you're done like Nextel. The Vols' 49-point first half explosion was catalyzed by spectacular outside shooting and getting Oden and Conley Jr. into foul trouble. Nevertheless, Ohio State's team defense, which limited Tennessee to four two-point baskets, got them back into the game almost immediately in the second half. When the day is over, you can't forget about the efforts of OSU's Ron Lewis and Tennessee's Chris Lofton, who seemed to trade three-pointers late in the game. Missed free throws (8-for-17) and potential complacency may be on Bruce Pearl's mind for the next few taxing months.

The Misses

Usually, the shtick for established columnists and up-and-coming bloggers in the sports realm is to highlight their good predictions and ignore the bad misses. Today, I'm going to focus on the misses this season. Let's focus on three misses.

The most obvious miss was Texas A&M. Don't get me wrong, I expected them to make the tournament with a relatively weaker Big XII compared to previous years and a multitude of returning players. I even thought that they had a chance at a 'protected seed' (4 or better). I just wasn't convinced on December 10 when I criticized the embellishing of A&M by one Gary Parrish of CBS Sportsline lore. At the time, I didn't expect Acie Law IV to have 25 great games in a 30+ game season.

Another miss was the Pac-10 conference. At season's start, I viewed it as a 3-4 bid conference with UCLA, Arizona, and Washington being the locks. USC was my 4th team. No Oregon. No Washington State. I knew of Aaron Brooks, but what about Tajuan Porter and Maarty Leunen? Not so much. As for Wazzou, I had no clue. (Yes, I rhymed).

Another Texas A&M-associated miss was the non-inclusion of Acie Law IV in my top three preseason All-America teams. Instead, I included the likes of Ronald Steele, Dominic James, Richard Roby (who?), Sean Singletary, and Brandon Heath at the guard positions ahead of Law. What on earth was I thinking?

While there are other misses that can be harped on (namely, Butler during the NCAA Tournament), those are the ones of the highest magnitude. With that said, some of these misses pale in comparison to those of the real media and higher-profile bloggers.

Tomorrow, we'll have our predictions for the Sweet 16 games as well as other observations pertinent to the NCAA tournament and beyond.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 7.1

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place. Additionally, these projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

We are now nine days away from Selection Sunday, and half of the top eight teams have lost already this week. The biggest shake-up at the top was North Carolina’s removal from the land of the #1 seeds. At their expense, Wisconsin nipped Kansas for the final 1-seed. Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s overtime loss to Texas gave us enough to alter the projected winner of the Big 12. In short, A&M (AKA Acie Law IV university) didn’t show their normal defensive vigor, and that’s a very bad sign moving forward.

In the ACC, Maryland completed its season sweep of Duke, and now occupy the final 3-seed – a far-cry from being 3-6 in conference and allegations that Gary Williams had forgotten how to coach. Staying in the ACC, Georgia Tech moved one major step closer to safety, as they defeated North Carolina on Thursday night. Despite being the outright regular season leader, UVa lacks the quality road/neutral court wins to garner a higher seed. The ‘Hoos have a lot to gain next weekend in Tampa.

Although I highly doubt that this will hold, Appalachian St. is the final team in the field. Why? Their resume is better than the other teams. The team currently in the field that has to impress me to stay in is Illinois. The majority of their conference wins are against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State), who are just awful. Their measurables (RPI, SOS) are what keeps them in, but something just doesn’t add up about this team except for their solid team defense.

Picking up steam in the national press is recognition of a possible second bid for the Colonial Athletic Association. This is not news to PHSports, as we have projected two bids for the conference since February 12. Narcissism aside, if VCU and Drexel meet in the semifinals, many in the know are now considering this game on Sunday to be worth an at-large bid.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	Wisconsin	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	North Carolina	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Maryland	Memphis	Pittsburgh	Southern Illinois
4	Oregon	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt
5	UNLV	Duke	Tennessee	Virginia
6	Nevada	Kentucky	Arizona	Texas
7	Louisville	Marquette	BYU	Indiana
8	Boston College	Michigan St.	Stanford	Texas Tech
9	Xavier	Notre Dame	Butler	Villanova
10	USC	Creighton	Georgia Tech	Air Force
11	Missouri St.	Illinois	Old Dominion	Winthrop
12	Syracuse	Drexel	Appalachian St.	Gonzaga
13	Georgia	Holy Cross	Akron	Davidson
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Sam Houston St.	Marist	E. Tennessee St.	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Austin Peay	Delaware St.

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, Wisconsin
2s: Kansas, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Maryland
4s: Oregon, Virginia Tech, Washington St., Vanderbilt
5s: Virginia, Tennessee, Duke, UNLV
6s: Nevada, Kentucky, Texas, Arizona
7s: Marquette, BYU, Indiana, Louisville
8s: Boston College, Stanford, Michigan St., Texas Tech
9s: USC, Georgia Tech, Villanova, Butler (USC and Georgia Tech were placed on the 10^th seed line due to conflict)
10s: Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, Air Force (Notre Dame and Xavier are placed on the 9^th seed line)
11s: Winthrop, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Missouri St. (Syracuse was placed on the 12^th seed line due to conflict)
12s: Illinois, Drexel, Gonzaga, Georgia (Illinois was placed on the 11^th seed line and Georgia was placed on the 13^th seed line due to conflicts)
13s: Appalachian St., Davidson, Holy Cross, Akron (Appalachian St. was placed on the 12^th line due to Georgia’s conflict)
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Marist, Sam Houston St., E. Tennessee St.
16s: Austin Peay, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Appalachian St.
Out: Kansas St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Drexel, Georgia, Appalachian St.
Last Four Out: Alabama, Purdue, Oklahoma St. UMass
Next Four Out: Bradley, VCU, Utah St., Florida St.

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Southern: 2