Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style [Mid-Week Edition]

Late last night/early this morning, Clement posed a series of questions. Tonight, I provide answers to those questions that surround the NCAA Tournament.

"Quin Snyder Who?"
Blake Griffin goes for 16 and 20, yet the Oklahoma Sooners lose to Missouri (who is 18-0 at home btw). Meanwhile, Kansas loses @ (2-12 in conference) Texas Tech in a relative 19-point laugher.

Q: With that in mind: has Oklahoma ruined their chances at a #1 seed?
A: For starters, I projected Oklahoma was the #6 overall team in the Big XII despite projecting them to win their conference tournament. Why is this the case? They lack the quality wins that the top 3 Big East and top 2 ACC teams have. Not to mention, Oklahoma has often played to the level of their competition, needing to pull away late in games against inferior competition. While "style points" get scrutinized more often in college football, it will be difficult to argue that OU has a stronger resume than the aforementioned teams, as well as Michigan State and Wake Forest.

"Missing in Action"
Marquette thumped Pitt in the opening stretch of the second half - with a 21-5 run out of the gates - but couldn't seal the deal, ultimately losing 90-75 to DeJuan Blair and company (largely due to a 21-2 run of their own).
Q: Is the loss of senior guard and captain Dominic James simply too devastating to take the Golden Eagles seriously come tourney time?
A: Yes. It was already going to be tough sledding for Marquette with James. Without James, Jerel McNeal is a shell of himself. In two road games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, he has shot 11-for-43 from the field.

"Really an Upset?"
Q: Let's make it simple. Whose home loss was more surprising: LSU's to Vanderbilt or Purdue's to Northwestern?
A: Because of their horrible strength of schedule, I have not drank the LSU Kool-Aid yet. Don't get me wrong, they have some quality guard play and Trent Johnson is an excellent Xs and Os coach. That said, the Purdue's loss was more surprising, because I thought they were turning the corner. I thought wrong. That Kevin Coble is some player!

"Rambling Wreck!"
Q: Admit it, after tonight's loss to Georgia Tech...even the staunchest Miami (Florida-style) supporters have to shut their yaps. Right?
A: Absolutely. Miami lost a must-win game against an ill-disciplined yet talented Georgia Tech team. It was a must-win game because the value of their best OOC win is decreasing by the minute. It's not quite over for Miami because bubble teams continue to lose and they can make up plenty of ground during Championship Week.

"It's So Hard To Say Goodbye..."
Q: Is it possible that both SEC stalwarts Kentucky (losing to Georgia) and Florida (losing to Mississippi State) sealed their bubble fates with damaging losses tonight?
A: First off, thank you, Boyz II Men. Second, the Florida/Kentucky tussle this weekend is an at-large bid elimination game. Third, I think it is possible for the winner to have a chance an at-large bid if they make the SEC Tournament Final.

"Mired in the Muck"
Q: Is it possible a mid-major (i.e. Creighton, Siena, St. Mary's, Davidson) was the big winner with SO MANY bubble teams losing in the past 48 hours (Va. Tech, Maryland, Florida, Kentucky, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Kansas State)? Or, was it a major conference squad like Providence, Texas A&M, or Arizona (who does draw Cal tomorrow)?
A: It's too early to say. These smaller tournaments must first happen, but Creighton and Siena are definitely benefitting while St. Mary's and Davidson are not far behind. Other potential winners are Rhode Island and Washington State. Both are peaking at the right time and have resumes that look better with every passing loss by every bubble team.

***Bonus Question***
"Isn't this a FOOTBALL Conference?"
No it isn't a trivial question this time. Minnesota moves to 9-8 in the Big 10 with a HUGE home victory against Wisconsin. Next up: Michigan.
Q: What are we mere mortals to make of Big Ten bubble squads Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern? A simple in/out (as of tonight) would suffice.
A: Here are my thoughts ...
Penn State: IN
Wisconsin: IN
Ohio State: IN
Minnesota: IN
Michigan: OUT
Northwestern: OUT

NCAA Tournament Projections - March 16, 2008 (Morning)

Here’s our seeding schedule …

To appease your bubble fix, here is our Last Four In, Last Four Out and the Next Four Out.

Last Four In: Arizona State, Villanova, Illinois State, South Alabama
Last Four Out: VCU, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, UMass, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin

Herb Sendek won't be upset with our inclusion of the Sun Devils

Credit: CNN/SI

Tonight, Temple took home the A-14 crown. Speaking of Temple, their surge is part of a prevailing theme at PHSports this year. Be it Temple, Kentucky or staying with George Mason as long as we possibly could, we have been able to spot trends or teams on the rise before everyone else. Not to mention, we had Pittsburgh as the top #4 seed prior to tonight’s home win at the Garden.

Quickly, Arkansas is a #5 seed on the expectation that they defeat Georgia by 15 or more points. That’s ambitious, but legs have to give at some point, no? How many more games can Georgia pull out when their best player (Sundiata Gaines) fouls out?

On the 7th seed line, we know it’s harsh to put Indiana there with a dynamic duo of Gordon and White. If Indiana can get a consistent 3rd guy, then #2 seeds had better start praying. They may be a #6 seed for us tomorrow.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The UNADULTERATED Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA), Kansas (Big XII)
2: Texas, Tennessee, Wisconsin (Big Ten), Georgetown
3: Duke, Stanford, Pittsburgh (Big East), Louisville
4: Xavier, Drake (MVC), Michigan State, USC
5: UConn, Arkansas (SEC), Purdue, Butler (Horizon)
6: Vanderbilt, Marquette, Clemson, Notre Dame
7: Washington State, Indiana, Kent State (MAC), Gonzaga
8: BYU, Davidson (Southern), Miami-FL, Texas A&M
9: West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Kentucky
10: Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Arizona, UNLV (MWC)
11: Temple (A-10), Baylor, St. Joseph’s, Arizona State
12: Villanova, Illinois State, South Alabama, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), San Diego (WCC), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Boise State (WAC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
15: Cal State Fullerton (Big West), Winthrop (Big South), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC), Coppin State (MEAC)

IN: Boise State, Coppin State
OUT: New Mexico State, Morgan State


Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

5 NCAA Men's Basketball Questions...

Hard to find a more bubble-loaded matchup than Kentucky v. Florida today.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

• 1) Will the Ohio State Buckeyes secure an at-large bid with a win at home over 17th-ranked Michigan state?
• 2) Will Virginia Tech be able to acquire their 10th conference-win, and first against the RPI top-50, today at Clemson?
• 3) If the Terps lose at UVA, is their season essentially over?
• 4) Are BOTH Drake and Illinois State tourney-bound, regardless of today's MVC Championship outcome?
• 5) What will the Big East Tournament shape up as following today's makeup of yesterday's postponed Cincy/UCONN matchup?

***BONUS Question***

• 6) Will perennial CAA fixtures George Mason and VCU secure their third CAA Championship Game matchup in four years?
  

Wednesday Night Musings

It's another Wednesday and all the more pivotal with huge games taking place in every corner of the country. We've got our eyes on a few themes.

First, I really hate Duke. Growing up a UNC fan, I normally have little trouble mustering up disgust for the Blue Devils. This year, it's been difficult. Why? Because Mike Patrick is unwatchable and he covers EVERY GAME! That said, kudos to whomever gave Greg Paulus a black eye. That's what he gets for incessant instigation and flops (Coach K calls it "leadership"). Meanwhile, UVa just broke a six-minute scoreless streak and Duke is up 12 at JPJ.

Second, could there be a changing of the guard in the Patriot League? The conference staples, Bucknell (AKA Bucky ... sorry, Wisconsin ... go beat Kansas as a #14 seed and you'll get the name back) and Holy Cross are road dogs in the Patriot League Conference Tournament, which topped off at 7pm. Right now, Bucky is down 10 at the half to Navy and Holy Cross is up 5 after the first media timeout at top-seed American.

Third, from the bubble, here are some early one-liners ...

• Patrick Patterson, who? Kentucky is up 9 at the half at South Carolina. Realistically speaking, the 'Cats can't shoot 63% or better in the second half - not even against the 'Cocks.
• In a game that Miami badly needs, they're down 7 to BC Rices. Tyrese has 18 of the Eagles' 27 points at the half. If my math is correct, that's a greater points percentage than his output on Saturday versus North Carolina.
• Dayton blew an early 12-point lead and is tied at St. Bonaventure.
• Will Jim Boeheim write the sequel to "How To Blow A Double-Digit Lead in Three-And-A-Half Minutes"? It's possible.
• UMass apparently doesn't want to be a part of the A-14. They are actually winning in a game that they are supposed to win.
• I wish I had ESPN Full Court, so I can hear Ron Franklin utter the words, "It's Bedlam". Beyond being "Bedlam", Oklahoma is in the NCAAs with a win and no further injuries. It's a tall order against a Cowboys squad that is rejuvenated and playing at home.

Checking back in at 8:45pm

• Jack McClinton has awaken from his slumber! Once down by 11 in the 2nd half to BC, the 'Canes are now up 8. Both teams are streaky, so don't be shocked if Miami blows this with five and change to go.
• Minnesota took a brief lead at Indiana on Senior + Eric Gordon Night. Yes, the whole purpose of this one-liner was to take a knock at one & down players. I had to.
• Hopes fading fast for Bucky. Down 6 with 2 to go at the Naval Academy. You can go ahead and shred the pages on the Patriot League in the Blue Ribbon Yearbook.
• Temple and Dayton are doing their best to live up to the standard of losing must-win games and have this be a 2-bid league.
• The 'Cuse lead is down to single digits and Clement is likely pulling his hair out.
• Mississippi State is up 3 late in the 1st half at Vanderbilt. Despite their 2-6 mark against the top 50, if the Bulldogs win this one, they are absolutely in the NCAA Tournament in everyone's mind.

9:30pm

• Kentucky, Dayton, Temple and Miami score crucial wins this evening. At 8-7 in the ACC with a signature win against Duke and holding non-conference wins versus VCU on a neutral court and at Mississippi State, Miami is a 99.9% lock for the NCAAs. As for Joe Crawford, who Clement highlighted in this article earlier tonight, he shot 10-for-19 from the field and sank 11 of 12 from the charity stripe en route to a cool 35 in Columbia.
• Syracuse actually holds on. Does it speak to how well the Orange played or how much control that Bobby Gonzalez has lost from Seton Hall?
• American eeks out a close one against Holy Cross. The Jeff Jones Dream is still alive. Perhaps, one mid-major from the DC area will make the NCAA Tournament.
• Meanwhile, once dead, Bucky fights on. They're in the 3rd OT with Navy. The Midshipmen's Greg Sprink had 32 points after regulation.

...Clement hacks in at 10:05pm...

• Florida is up 55-45 on Tennessee at the half. How? Shooting 68% from the field and hitting 7 of 12 from behind the arc doesn't hurt. Not to mention, Bruce Pearl's squad has 11 team fouls (including several starters with two a piece).
• Mississippi State and Vandy are notched at 74 as we enter (at least) 5 minutes of OT. The SEC is on fire tonight!
• Plenty of teams avoided a costly upset (Indiana, Duke, Notre Dame, Memphis, and Wisconsin appears to be joining them, already up 34-17 on Penn State at the half).
• Bucky took down #2-seeded Navy out of the Patriot League in 3 OT 87-86. What an incredible quarterfinal pair of matchups this conference offered up today. [I am intensely loyal to Bucknell forever due to the victory over Kansas in the '05 tourney.]
• New Orleans beat Denver. NBA Playoff implications? Nah. Just good ole' fashioned Sun Belt Conference action. GOTCHA!
• Tony Crocker did his best Blake Griffin impersonation tonight. Sooners with a nice W in Stillwater.
• Yes, I'm a Cuse fan. They held on due to opportunistic rebounding late; however, they turn the ball over WAY too much to beat ranked-Marquette...even with maybe 30,000 screaming fans in the Dome this weekend.
• I'm pumped for the CAA Awards tomorrow. It can't just be me, can it? Any predictions on Defensive Player of the Year? Anyone?
  

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

Pay is back at 10:55pm and he thanks Verizon Online DSL for a service stoppage.

• On the Bucky win, John Griffin nailed a desperation 40-footer to seal that victory. If that's not what Bucky is all about, then I don't know what is.
• Up 8 with less than two minutes to go, it looks like A&M is going to get a much-needed road victory against Baylor. The Aggies have held the Bears to 34% from the field. Curtis Jerrells has a grand total of 7 points.
• JaJuan Smith and Chris Lofton are stepping up in the second half on senior night. It's too bad that this is Florida's senior night. With under three minutes in regulation, Tennessee holds a slim advantage. Even if they win this game, Tennessee is failing the subjective "eye test" despite the second strongest set of wins (Texas).

Final words at 11:15pm

• While it's great to win close games, Bruce Pearl has to be slightly concerned. I understand that it's been a hellacious 11 days dating back to the Memphis game, but I expect more poise in March from the Volunteers.
• Big Winners: Texas A&M, Miami, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Shan Foster, A-14, Tony Crocker
• Big Losers: Florida, Baylor, Mississippi State, Navy
• Under the Radar: UAB, Houston

Saturday’s College Basketball Musings

Exactly like the title indicates, these thoughts are unsystematic …

Kansas is awfully good. I still think they’re still a player thin in the frontcourt, but having Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun as your only bigs is a major positive. Mario Chalmers may be the nation's best defensive player. PERIOD.

Butler is doing everything to legitimize the 4-seed I gave them in the pre-season projections. We all knew the backcourt tandem of Green and Graves (yes, in that order) would be dominant, but freshman Matt Howard has made some forget about the losses of Brandon Crone and Brian Ligon.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oregon has done nothing but disappoint. Mark January 5 as a possible turning point. Though Arizona was without do-everything guard Jerryd Bayless, the Ducks were unstoppable from behind the arc (10 for 22). Consider this a step back for the Wildcats who have shown marked improvement on the defensive end with Kevin O’Neill at the helm.

Despite improving to 10-3, NC State has driven me nuts. Sure, you lost your point guard for the year to a brutal injury. To have Presbyterian (1-18) sniffing at your heels for about 39 minutes is insulting to a program that has NCAA tournament aspirations. This can’t be too encouraging with the ACC schedule right around the corner.

If Vanderbilt continues to play with this level of fervor and resolve all season, you can just give National Coach of the Year honors to Kevin Stallings. After losing SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars (17.0 ppg) and Dan Cage (11.2 ppg), they were an afterthought. Someone forgot to send that memo to Stallings and company.

Kentucky sucks. No analysis needed. Youth or not, these results are unacceptable given the talent in place. Imagine if Tubby was 6-7. It would have never gotten that far.

Here’s a scary statistic: the SEC is the 8th-rated conference according to the RPI. Entering today’s play, only five SEC teams are rated in the top 100. Does this mean that the SEC, if this ranking holds, will have no more than three representatives dancing in March? If the ranking holds and justice is served, then that answer will be an emphatic “YES!”

Thursday's Headlines - Spot On

* Late last night, Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart received permission from the University of Florida to speak with Billy Donovan about their coaching vacancy. Donovan is scheduled to meet with Florida AD Jeremy Foley today and then plans to vacation in the Dominican Republic, according to ESPN's Andy Katz. ESPN and CBS Sportsline (no, they aren't the only two sports websites I visit) are now reporting that Billy Donovan is staying put and that he will be in talks for an extension at Florida. Now, was I right or was I right? How many hours will it be until we hear about Rick Barnes or Billy Gillispie being asked if they're interested?

This Donovan decision should have little to no bearing on the decisions to be made by Horford, Noah, Brewer, and Green.

* West Virginia is hot on the heels of Kansas State head coach Bob Huggins, who calls the state home and played for the Mountaineers during the mid-1970s. In the eyes of many, Huggins accepting the job is contingent upon whether he will be able to take top recruit Michael Beasley with him.

* Butler has its new coach. Brad Stevens, 30, served as an assistant at Butler for six years under Todd Lickliter and Thad Matta. The Bulldogs return three of its top scorers (AJ Graves, Mike Green, and Pete Campbell) from the squad that made the Sweet 16 and gave eventual national champion Florida its stiffest test.

* Louis Orr is back in the head coaching ranks at Bowling Green. This is the guy who took a worthless Seton Hall team last season to the tournament, albeit in controversial fashion with a very low RPI and 40+ point losses, and proceeded to get whooped by Wichita State. As a reward for his efforts, he got canned.

On the PHSports Docket
* NFL Mock Draft
* NCAA basketball coaching carousel
* NBA Draft early entries

Kentucky Resolution, Heath Firing Fallout, Iowa Chasing Pearl?

With what some considered "over-coverage" of the NFL coaching carousel, you had better expect the same for my forte, college basketball. In college basketball, the 'carousel' is more like a circular metropolis. Instead of 32 coaching staffs, you've got more than ten times that number. The very second that a name is swirled around as a potential candidate, universities and boosters start ante-ing up to keep their beloved coaches. It's a different animal than pro sports, but a business nonetheless.

Kentucky Resolution?
Last Thursday, Tubby Smith left the blue grass to freeze his ..., well, you know. Since then, numerous analysts, most notably Andy Katz of ESPN, have said that many coaches are in line to benefit financially from the Kentucky vacancy even if they have no intention of taking the job. Earlier this week, John Calipari agreed to an extension through 2011-12. Also, sources report that newly-anointed basketball school Texas A&M will do its best to match any offers for head coach Billy Gillispie. And let's not forget about former UK assistant and current god of Gainesville Billy Donovan. He's going to make bank whether he's at Florida, Kentucky, or the Miami Heat. Shall any of these coaches leave their posts, coaches from lesser programs will occupy their posts and move up a few tax brackets. For those who read my post suggesting former players such as Ford and Pelphrey as coaching candidates for this position, they are not even being mentioned by the real media (aka people who have coaches' digits), so I'm content in ceasing conversation about the pair.

Heath Firing Fallout
Staying in the SEC (said with a Tony Barnhardt-esque southern drawl), Arkansas fired its head coach Stan Heath yesterday in what was considered a surprise to all of us except for Heath, who made his second trip to the NCAA Tournament in as many years. In his defense, Heath's team - a much younger one than the previous year - won 21 games; however,winning 21 nowadays isn't your father's 21 when considering that most D-1 schools play in excess of 30 games per season.

Many, including myself, think that the firing was made with a successor already in mind. Although Heath was somewhat successful, his results were always compared to his predecessor's (Nolan Richardson), and in comparison, it's not even close. The Heath style of play isn't exactly the appealing 40 Minutes of Hell either. With that said, everyone returns from an Arkansas team that is expected to win the SEC West (and not with a 8-8 record), making the job more appealing than at first glance. College sports are the only game in town, to boot. For those reasons, expect Arkansas AD Frank Broyles to make a concerted play for the aforementioned Gillispie and possibly Nebraska head coach Doc Sadler who is more of a contingency. Given the athletic makeup of their roster, Arkansas should consider giving VCU a call to see if head coach Anthony Grant is available. Nevertheless, I expect them to go after a more proven head coach despite the obvious upside (yes, that word means the NBA Draft is only 3 months away). Whomever he is, expect him to be paid, as Broyles expects to make a big splash before he dives into retirement.

Iowa's Chase for Pearl Rendered Useless
Now that Steve Alford has left the Iowa rebuilding project (Blair Witch Project) for the New Mexico rebuilding project (Tony Rich Project), the Hawkeyes are chasing former assistant and current Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl. Hoping for the nostalgia hook, Iowa received permission from the Tennessee AD to speak with Pearl, but he rebuffed the overtures informing Iowa that he is not interested in their head coaching position. For his troubles, Pearl earns a one-year extension through 2013.

In my opinion, given the saturation of big-name/talented head coaches in the Big Ten, it may be career suicide for whomever is audacious enough to take the reins at Iowa during a rebuilding period (notice how I did not say "year"). This may result in Iowa hiring from within the extended Iowa family or going after a coach of a mid-major program with ties to Midwest recruiting.

Knicks Sign Randolph Morris ... of the University of Kentucky

In a bizarre news announcement, ESPN reported that the Knicks signed Randolph Morris to what sources call a 2-year, $1.6 million deal. This is bizarre because the signing took place five days after Morris' last collegiate game.

In 2005, Morris declared himself eligible for the draft after his freshman campaign at Kentucky but he did not sign with an agent. Surprisingly, Morris went undrafted and sat out the first 14 games of his sophomore season because of an NCAA penalty related to contact with an agent. Having played for his sophomore and junior seasons, many including myself were unaware of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement provision that Morris is prohibited from re-entering the draft and had free agent status throughout the 2006-07 season at Kentucky.

Kentucky is now trying to figure out how the departure of Morris before spring semester's end will affect the school's academic progress report.

Under the new report, schools are subject to scholarship penalties if student-athletes leave early and not in good academic standing. Withdrawing from school before the end of a semester can seriously impede a team's GPA and academic standing. This may also have ramifications for Ohio State and Texas, who have one or more freshmen that may declare for the NBA Draft.

As for Kentucky, the threat of NCAA action and the departure of 16 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks per game may widen the pool for a new coach. It may also scare off the lead candidates who lack the sentimental ties to Kentucky basketball. This may open the doors for former Wildcat stalwarts Travis Ford (UMass) and John Pelphrey (South Alabama).

Much of this post took pieces from ESPN.com

And The Coaching Carousel Begins in College Basketball ...

Yesterday, Tubby Smith made waves by pulling a pre-emptive move in trading Kentucky for Minnesota ... the university and not the Timberwolves. Like many, I was not shocked by his departure but was by the destination. Frankly, I'm stirred by the names associated with this job -- namely, Flip Saunders of the Detroit Pistons and Chris Lowery of Southern Illinois. Tubby Smith wasn't even on the radar. I'm aware that Minnesota is a basketball state, but this is what I find shocking. Can Smith turn around the Golden Gophers? Early indications are that he'll change it to a degree, signifying that they won't be a doormat in the Big Ten. But, are the Golden Gophers going to be national title contenders? Not by a longshot, and I'll be hard-pressed to find that spending $1.8 million per year on a fading coach is a good business decision.

In other surprising news, Steve Alford has left Iowa, a BCS school, for New Mexico. Was it a realization that with Tubby Smith in the Big Ten, it would mean another high-profile coach to battle against in the recruiting wars? That means he'd be going against Thad Motta, Tom Izzo, Bo Ryan, Kelvin Sampson, Bruce Weber, Matt Painter, and whomever Michigan hires as their head coach. Not to mention, he would have to compete against surging Missouri Valley programs. Rebuilding is no fun when you have that kind of competition. Little does Alford know that the conference he's stepping into is no walk in the park.

Who is the next Kentucky head coach?
The early rumors include Tom Creen of Marquette, Mark Few of Gonzaga, and Billy Gillespie of Texas A&M. Travis Ford of UMass and John Pelphrey of South Alabama are former UK players who have an outside shot at being the next Wildcats head coach.

Here is some speculation on recent coaching vacancies.

Michigan
Southern Illinois' Chris Lowery, Xavier's Sean Miller and West Virginia's John Beilein, and Michigan State assistant Jim Boylen. (source: Yahoo! Sports)

Princeton
Georgetown assistant Sydney Johnson and Brown's Craig Robinson.
(source: Newark Star-Ledger)

Utah
Winthrop's Gregg Marshall, Southern Illinois' Chris Lowery, Butler's Todd Lickliter, and Old Dominion's Blaine Taylor and Kent State's Jim Christian. (source: Yahoo! Sports)

Quick Hits before Tourney Talk...

Dropping some quick 4-1-1 information that seemed of relevance to me. It'll be addressed further following the weekend of March Madness. But for now...here are a few of things of note on me mind.

1) LaRussa in a bit of trouble.
-That's right, another DUI story to enjoy. The 62-year old Cards manager was arrested on Thursday night after being found asleep behind the wheel, the car was on and stopped a stop light, and he blew a 0.093 percent on the Breathalyzer. [Florida, like many states has a legal limit of 0.08]. It's random, but just this past weekend there was a major pile up in the Wendy's parking lot for a drunken college student asleep behind the wheel, thankfully, of his parked jeep.] Note to all of you drunken drivers, please have the human decency to stop doing this immediately. PLEASE!

2) Schaub to the Texans
-I'm not exactly sure what's more baffling:
1) Texans finally trading Carr NOW when they could've had Vince or Leinart last year
2) The 6 year, $48-million dollar deal Schaub landed
3) The Texans swapping 1st rounder (8 to 10) and giving up this and next year's 2nd rounders (which are pretty high picks) to the Falcons
4) Schaub's 0-2 record, 6 TDs/6 INTs and more so...Kubiak's love for a relative unknown to this degree.
All I can say is...Houston, we may already have yet another problem.

3) Tubby Smith out in Kentucky, in at University of Minnesota
-Yep, it had to happen eventually. Before he could be fired, Tubby bolted from UK (he'll still get his April bonus) and got good money to try and re-build the Golden Gophers. It's a good move for Tubby, he needed to leave Lexington before it got too ugly. As for who Kentucky will target? Names like Izzo, Creen, Few, Gillespie, Beilein, Romar, Kent, and plenty other have to be dropped. This is a top-5 job in college basketball. Please, let's not start the Pitino rumors too soon.

4) Jason Hart's game-winner
Okay, it's only news to me. But here is the link: it's all I'll say about this moment.

I'll try and drop another ten random thoughts in a week or two. Until then...