Our Time Is Now: ACC Breakdown and pre-Tournament Forecasting

A few nights ago, I broke down the Big East and predicted what each non-lock Big East team still vying for an at-large bid needed to do in order to dance in two weeks. Today, it’s the ACC’s turn.

To date, I posit that no less than five ACC teams have punched their ticket for The Big Dance and no more than three teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at the ACC Tournament in Atlanta. That leaves four teams vying for at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am once again using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.

IN: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson
OUT: NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
NOT YET IN: Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami-FL

Boston College 20-9 (8-6)
Key Wins: @ UNC, v. Duke, UAB (N), v. Florida State, @ Maryland, v. Providence
Remaining Games: @ NC State (L), v. Georgia Tech (W)
Projected Record: 21-10 (9-7)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 3-3

Maryland 18-10 (7-7)
Key Wins: v. UNC, Michigan State (N), Miami-FL (S), v. Virginia Tech, v. Michigan, v. Vermont
Remaining Games: v. Wake Forest (L), @ Virginia (W)
Projected Record: 19-11 (8-8)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 1-6

Virginia Tech 17-11 (7-7)
Key Wins: @ Wake Forest, Clemson (AS), @ Miami-FL, Boston College (S)
Remaining Games: v. UNC (L), @ Florida State (L)
Projected Record: 17-13 (7-9)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 3-5

Miami 17-10 (6-8)
Key Wins: v. Wake Forest, Florida State (S), Boston College (2), Maryland (S)
Remaining Games: @ Georgia Tech (W), v. NC State (W)
Projected Record: 19-10 (8-8)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 4-5

As a result of this exercise, Boston College finishes 9-7, which ties them with Clemson; however, Clemson wins the head-to-head tie-breaker. That said, BC earns the 6th seed. Maryland takes the tie-breaker for 7th place over Miami by virtue of their win over North Carolina. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech would finish 7-9 (even though I think they will split their last two) and would face Miami in the 8/9 clash.

********

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

Boston College: Nothing (so long as they have 9 conference wins given their high number of quality wins)

Maryland: Win at least 1 game (likely versus NC State) and compete admirably against the #2 seed (likely Duke)

Miami: Win at least 1 game (likely versus Virginia Tech) and play like they belong in the NCAA Tournament against UNC

Virginia Tech: Win 1 game (likely versus Miami) and hope that no bids are stolen in the Horizon League, Conference USA, the Mountain West, the A-10 and the West Coast Conference. Also, Tech would definitely be in the NCAA Tournament with 2 wins (likely versus Miami and UNC).

Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style

Last night, Clement went where no man has gone before (except himself) and asked a series of questions pertinent to the NCAA Tournament. Today, I answer them. Is this deja vu? I think so.

Q: "On the Outside Looking In...Sorta"
Who has the best shot at a #1 seed: Memphis or Michigan State? And please, don't tell me neither (even if that's the case).

A: Neither has a realistic chance, but if you put a revolver to my head, I’d go with Michigan State. Memphis has zero chance of a #1 seed, because they have zero signature wins and zero additional opportunities for them. Michigan State has none either, but they have a number of very strong wins and could catapult to a #1 with a lot of help coupled with regular season and conference tournament championships in the Big Ten.

Q: "East Coast Bias"
Which team west of the Mississippi isn't getting enough respect: Washington, Arizona State, or Utah?

A: Actually, I think all of these teams are getting enough respect. Perhaps, many of Utah’s non-conference wins (Wisconsin-Green Bay, Ole Miss, Morgan State, Weber State, LSU, Gonzaga) have gone under the radar but they are respected, since they hold a 2-game lead in the hotly-contested Mountain West with only three to play. I would not be shocked if two of these play into the second weekend of the tournament.

Q: "Bengals from the Bayou"
How has LSU remained under the radar so much? Is SEC basketball that unexciting and uninspiring this season (outside of Mr. Meeks)? Are they a legitimate threat in the tournament?

A: LSU has remained under the radar as a result of their OOC schedule, which ranks 22^nd from the bottom of Division I. Additionally, they play 10 of their conference games in the frail SEC West (enough said). That said, they are starting to gain respect with every victory (4-0) against the sturdier SEC East. While LSU has performed admirably as we reach March, I do not see the Tigers outplaying their seed.

Q: "Hurricane Season???"
Which team is more likely to have a costly hiccup in their remaining games: Miami (Fl) or South Carolina?
A: Sadly, Miami is more likely to have that hiccup, despite being the more potent team in my opinion. South Carolina (9-4 in conference) has a realistic chance at 11 wins in conference with a visit from Rocky Top sandwiched between trips to Nashville and Athens. It’s no secret that the Hurricanes are battered and bruised, but they have started to play well in the clutch, and if they win at Georgia Tech and defeat NC State at home, then they are 8-8 in the nation’s top-ranked conference. That may keep them in the Last Four In, but we have seen that bids may be stolen in even the power conferences (e.g. Georgia).

Q: "(Mid) Major Dilemma!"
What's the (updated) prognoses on teams like Utah State, Creighton, and Siena, assuming neither of the three wins their conference tournament?

A: If Utah State does not win their conference tournament, then they should be prepared for a high NIT seed. If Creighton and Siena win the rest of their regular season games and lose in the final to the next best team, then they both should be in. Of course, a lot of this depends on other variables (i.e. teams other than Butler and Gonzaga winning their conference tournaments).

Question #6: "50/50"
Pick an ACC and a Big Ten team - out of each pairing - who you favor as being more likely to secure an at-large birth: Big Ten (Penn State or Michigan) & ACC (Virginia Tech or Maryland).

In the Big Ten, I’d give the nod to Penn State, as they have defeated the 1^st and 3^rd best team in their conference on the road. In the ACC, I would select Virginia Tech by a very slim margin based on the same rationale. That said, much can change at the conference tournament.

***Bonus Question***
What did you answer for the poll (Chalmber is Chalmers, btw...thanks Clement) and why? Just a sentence or two will do.

A: This is a great question, because I was only able to eliminate three players (Chalmers, Brewer, Noah) from this list due to the composite strength of their respective teams. I went with Juan Dixon, because fans forget exactly how dominant he was in the final two minutes of a game. Any time that Maryland needed a play to either lead a spurt or to kill a crowd, Juan Dixon did it.

Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style

Yesterday, Clement posed a baker's half dozen worth of NCAA Tournament-related questions. Today, I will answer them. We are a logical bunch at PHSports.

Q: "The Other Tyler in Chapel Hill"
What does Tyler Zeller's return mean to North Carolina's rotation? Will he become a major factor or perhaps hinder the minutes of contributors off the bench? Is 5 regular season games and the ACC Tournament enough time for him to be prepared for major minutes come March Madness?
A: Immediately, Zeller's return gives Carolina its second big off of the bench and gives Roy Williams more options when crafting his lineups. Perhaps, he may hinder the minutes of other contributors off of the bench (e.g. Bobby Frasor, who has been excellent), but he plays a position of need. In two games before the injury, Zeller averaged 22.5 minutes; even if he is effective, expect him to play no more than 15-18 minutes when he has reached true game fitness.

Q: "Cinderella Arrives at MSG"
Which Big East "letdown" do you see more capable of making a legitimate run at MSG: Georgetown or Notre Dame?
A: Georgetown. They are the only team currently on the outside looking in who have adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the top 25. However, they are wildly inconsistent and lack poise in the final four minutes of games. I can also see their legs turn into jello if they get to play a third game in as many days. Detractors may say that Notre Dame has a better chance because they have the best player, can score, have a deeper bench and have stronger play at the point. One minor point: playing defense is optional at Notre Dame. Everyone saw the result against Louisville. We also saw result at Cincinnati and West Virginia.

Q: "Judgment Day"
Oklahoma may be the #1 team in the country next week. What else should we know about this besides "The Terminator" Blake Griffin?
A: Despite my unquestioned love for one Blake Griffin dating back to last winter, I am not as wild about this Oklahoma team as the pollsters are. The reason being that they eke out results against inferior competition when they should be throttling them. The key element in getting this team from a mid-grade Big XII team to a national contender has been the presence of freshman guard, who averages more than 14 points per game and shoots nearly 50% from the field. Senior point guard Austin Johnson has improved his play every year, and this is a testament to head coach Jeff Capel.

Q: "Hokie Hotline"
Is there anyone in college basketball who has a more murderous road ahead than "bubbly" Virginia Tech (home and away w/ Florida State, Duke, UNC, and @Clemson)?
A: No. They are in serious trouble. Even without Jeff Allen, there is no excuse for losing to UVa. Urgency requires results. They need one to two players excluding their big three to make steady scoring contributions on a regular basis if they want to win two of these games.

Q: "Bracketbusters Galore"
Should Stephen Curry play in the bracketbuster game? Is it worth it to risk further injury with such a crucial matchup against Butler?
A: If he is good to go, then yes, he should play. It's not worth it to risk injury, which would say bye-bye to their at-large hopes even with a victory. This win would not even be Davidson's best win, because they won a neutral court against West Virginia.

Q: "Revenge of 2008???"
Which team is a more dangerous matchup come March Madness: Memphis or Kansas?
A: Very tough question (because both teams have a go-to guy), but I'll go with Memphis. Both are excellent defensive teams, but Memphis is the best nationally, and the team has undergone a metamorphosis since Tyreke Evans moved to the point. Kansas may be more well-rounded as a team.

***Bonus Question***
Let's be geeks for a moment. If you could have any starting 5 (plus a 6th man) in the country - without the following 5 - who would it be? You might consider matching up against this squad.
C - Hasheem Thabeet [Connecticut]
PF - Tyler Hansbrough [North Carolina]
SF - Blake Griffin [Oklahoma] (we know it's a stretch, but Blake will excel at any forward spot)
SG - Stephen Curry [G, Davidson]
PG - Ty Lawson [North Carolina]
6th Man: James Harden [SG, Arizona State]

A: No matter who I choose, my team will be undersized. Therefore, I am going with talent, versatility and defense (sorry, no 'Gody). We also want to make this a full-court game.

C - DeJaun Blair [Pittsburgh]
PF - Dante Cunningham [Villanova] (I really badly wanted to go with Sam Young, but he's only 215 pounds)
SF - Terrence Williams [Louisville]
SG - Jodie Meeks [Kentucky]
PG - Darren Collison [UCLA]
6th Man: Jerel McNeal [SG, Marquette]

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

5 NCAA Men's Basketball Questions...

Hard to find a more bubble-loaded matchup than Kentucky v. Florida today.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

• 1) Will the Ohio State Buckeyes secure an at-large bid with a win at home over 17th-ranked Michigan state?
• 2) Will Virginia Tech be able to acquire their 10th conference-win, and first against the RPI top-50, today at Clemson?
• 3) If the Terps lose at UVA, is their season essentially over?
• 4) Are BOTH Drake and Illinois State tourney-bound, regardless of today's MVC Championship outcome?
• 5) What will the Big East Tournament shape up as following today's makeup of yesterday's postponed Cincy/UCONN matchup?

***BONUS Question***

• 6) Will perennial CAA fixtures George Mason and VCU secure their third CAA Championship Game matchup in four years?
  

Clement’s Weekly Predictions and Prognostications…

So it appears as if we are ready to embark on yet another NFL season. I could spread out the vernacular, hyperbole, and use of alliteration until I go blue in the face., but the title of this column isn’t preaching that. Instead, you’re looking for cold, hard predictions. And my friends, that’s exactly what you’ll get.

Each and every Friday, you can expect a few things from me:

1) 3 NFL picks for the upcoming weekend. I promise no gimmies. Real-deal matchups only.
2) 1 College Football pick for the upcoming weekend. With no offense to Appalachian State, we’re not searching for miracle upsets either. On showdown weekends, we may have a second college football pick.
3) 3 Must Starts and 3 Must Sits for the upcoming NFL fantasy football weekend. These won’t be your typical ESPN brainbusters, “Start the Chicago Defense, Larry Johnson, Torry Holt, and try and pick up Travis Henry off of waivers if you can!” This will be legit sleepers and busts for each and every weekend.
4) 4 Statements to love or loathe for the upcoming weekend. Straight from the horse’s mouth. [They’ll follow each NFL/NCAA prediction.]

Let’s get this puppy started. [Has that been said since the late 80s? Or ever?]

Week 1 NFL Picks: [Record: 0-0]

Carolina at St. Louis [Pick’em]

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

-Steve Smith will start this season just as his fantasy owners expect him to; with over 150 yards and at least one touchdown against a more than suspect Rams secondary. Exploit the odds and push the Panthers for the W.

…Sunday Night Football…
NY Giants at Dallas [-5.5]
















Credit: Yahoo! Sports

-The NFL may have already figured out Tony Romo; however, Sam Madison won’t be able to figure out TO. Dallas covering is as close to a primetime lock as you’re likely to see this season.

…Monday Night Football…
Baltimore at Cincinnati [-3]

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

-The early love for the Bengals will be squashed, at least during Week 1, as “Ground” McNair realizes McGahee gets to his hand-off twice as quick as Jamal Lewis ever could. Take the road dogs and count your early-season cash.

Week 2 NCAA Pick: [Record: 0-0]
#9 Virginia Teach at #2 LSU [-12]















Credit: Yahoo! Sports

-It isn’t fair to judge Tech’s opening game due to the tremendous outpouring of emotion that has been engulfing the team as of late. However, the humidity brought on by the LSU defense, not to mention the Bayou itself, will be far too much for the Hokies to contain. Tech QB Sean Glennon, not LSU's Matt Flynn, will be knocked out by the D or benched by the end of the 3^rd quarter. LSU chomps and romps.

3 Must Starts & 3 Must Sits:
START
1) The Jacksonville Defense – Vince Young is a ton of fun to watch. However, he is lacking a running game or a solid receiving corps. Match that with an opportunistic Jags defense and you have yourself a defense you might just be able to scoop up before your opponent reads this article. Start them with confidence.

2) Brian Westbrook – While McNabb may be getting all the Week 1 fantasy pub, don’t sleep on what Westbrook, and opposing running games, can do to the Pack attack rush defense. With lockdown corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson healthy, don’t be surprised if Westbrook is called on, via the run and pass, throughout the entire game. Don’t even flinch by depending on him to carry your team this weekend.

3) Darrell Jackson – Before injuries beset him, DJax was a top 5 wideout before the end of Week 5. With Antrel Rolle hardly resembling the elite shutdown corner the Cards once envisioned, look for Alex Smith’s favorite new wideout to see the endzone once or twice on Monday night. Enjoy him early and often. Then, deal him before Week 3 is over.

SIT
1) Lee Evans – As hot and cold as a fantasy star can be, don’t expect too many fireworks as he opens up with the nasty duo of Champ Bailey and ‘Dre Bly. While he may chase 200 yards and multiple TDs on some weeks, don’t view him as more than a shot-in-the-dark #3 wideout.

2) Ronnie Brown­ – While I am not as quick as some staff writers to call him a disappointment, the Skins defense looked awfully good in the pre-season. Also, Brown has a knack for not combining TDs and 100 yards performances. Likely a high pick in your draft, don’t expect this week to be the week he busts out 125 and 2 TDs.

3) Joe Horn – Do yourself a big favor and don't be "that guy" who is silently counting on the newest wideout acquisition in Hotlanta, former Saint Joe “Cell Phone” Horn to put up any type of numbers on Sunday. While Vikings CB Antoine Winfield has fallen back to Earth in recent seasons (I wonder if Nate Clements might do the same following his exodus from Buffalo), the Vikings defense should target Joey “Heisman” Harrington early and often on Sunday inside the dome. Do yourself a favor and take a risk on another team’s #2 or #3 before you attempt to start Atlanta’s newest WR.

And there you have it. The best of the best. Or, is it the rest? Either way, we’ll see who’s laughing … and who’s crying next week.

Until next time…

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Washington St.	Maryland	Memphis	Southern Illinois
4	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Marquette	Duke	Vanderbilt
6	UNLV	Nevada	Virginia	Texas
7	Georgia Tech	Louisville	BYU	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Texas Tech	Creighton	Villanova
9	Butler	Xavier	Notre Dame	Michigan St.
10	Winthrop	Air Force	USC	Boston College
11	Syracuse	Missouri St.	Old Dominion	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Davidson	Akron	Gonzaga
13	Arkansas	Purdue	Holy Cross	Drexel
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Siena	Belmont	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3