Bubble Teams: Stock Up, Stock Down

So far this week, we have seen a number of surprises, especially among our bubble teams. PHSports conducts a pulse check to determine where these teams are now.

Virginia Tech - The Hokies have defeated exactly 1 team in our field of 65. If they hold serve at home (win against UVa, Wake, Maryland, NC State), they are in with no questions asked. If they are 8-3 in ACC play after Tuesday, not only will they be in our field, they will be a 8 seed or better.

Mississippi State - Right when they needed a win, they came out strong against their rival (as we predicted). This team remains barely in the tournament.

Illinois - And off of the bubble they go. Everyone - and I mean everyone - outside of Champaign thought the Fighting Illini would be 7-5 in the Big Ten after two fatal blows to the ego against two of the conference's finest teams. Now, this team is clicking on all cylinders, and suddenly, someone other than Bo Ryan is in the discussion for Big Ten Coach of the Year. 11-7 in conference is very, very possible, which would make them a shoe-in for the tournament. As a result, the resumes of Missouri and Gonzaga improved.

North Carolina - a great performance for 33 minutes was not enough. If the Heels put in the same effort for 33 minutes at the defensive end in their last 7 games, they can win 6. They will not though. Off to the NIT ... or CBI.

The A-10 - We knew Charlotte was in for a difficult stretch, but a whopping 28-point loss to Dayton was not what we envisioned. The Flyers have some good OOC wins (v. Georgia Tech on a neutral court, @ George Mason, v. Old Dominion), and boast one of the most talented rosters in the conference. Rhode Island has the RPI numbers, but surprised us with a loss against the Richmond Spiders. U of R, who another PHSports contributor may call the 2nd best team in Richmond, has a strong resume thanks to some great scheduling. They will be one of the interesting case studies to examine come the weekend of March 14.

Louisville and Notre Dame - The Cardinals mailed it in against St. John's on Thursday night. As for Notre Dame, they fought hard against The Hall, but they lost in true Fighting Irish fashion surrendering 90+ points. To boot, 'Gody is injured.

UConn - They fought hard and fell short. Because ESPN did the game, some of the talking heads are raising a stink about poor officiating. Don't get me wrong, this team is very talented, and I like what George Blaney has done by widening his bench. If UConn goes 9-9, they are in. If they 8-10 with another signature win, they will make it in over a more deserving mid-major.

Minnesota - Shame on you, Golden Gophers. Way to lose on national television to a struggling Michigan team! They are in better shape than Northwestern, but not by a whole lot.

UTEP - A completely different team since Derrick Caracter entered the fray. If you get to watch this team, they are not the most crisp on offense, but they take no prisoners on defense. A trip to Tulsa may be among their toughest tests to date.

St. Mary's - A 19-point loss is close to exactly what we expected at Gonzaga. That's why they were on the outside looking in. For them to get in, they need to win a game that they are not supposed to win. Ultimately, they will need to win the WCC Tournament.

Blind Resume - Bubble Edition

In what order would you rank these teams?

Team 1
Record: 16-3
Team RPI: 13
v. RPI Top 100: 5-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-2
v. RPI Top 25: 1-2
v. RPI Sub 200: 3-0
Conf RPI: 6


Team 2
Record: 14-6
Team RPI: 50
v. RPI Top 100: 4-4
v. RPI Top 50: 3-2
v. RPI Top 25: 1-0
v. RPI Sub 200: 5-1
Conf RPI: 12

Team 3
Record: 16-4
Team RPI: 35
v. RPI Top 100: 6-3
v. RPI Top 50: 3-2
v. RPI Top 25: 1-2
v. RPI Sub 200: 7-0
Conf RPI: 7

Potential Bubble Teams Who Have Shot Themselves in the Foot

Come mid-March, when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is holding its final deliberations on the last four at-large teams to get an invitation, one question is always asked.

How much did [insert school] challenge themselves in non-conference play? Last year, Penn State won at the Breslin Center and swept Illinois (with a healthy Chester Frazier in both games, no less). However, they had an awful non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) and some bad losses.

Below are some teams that you may want to take a look at now and remember in March.

School (Non-Conference SOS in parentheses)*

• Marquette (291)

• Tulsa (284)
  

• Miami-FL (337)

• Notre Dame (334)

• Wichita State (344)

• Oregon (294)

• Virginia Tech (315)

• Seton Hall (340)

• Missouri State (309)

• Illinois State (341)

* Non-conference SOS data from www.kenpom.com as of January 11, 2010

Bracket Banter: Thursday Running Blog

3:00 pm: A few highlights from early afternoon action

* #1-seed Kansas was upset by Baylor in the quarterfinals of the Big XII tournament. I was more than a little suspect of the recent media-driven fascination with Kansas "deserving" a shot at a 1-seed. Nevertheless, Kansas will be an odd draw wherever they end up. How do you gauge this team? Unfortunately for the Bears, this doesn't get them in the tournament. However, I do want to invoke one team from last season to remind people how dangerous upsets like this are: Georgia.

Sorry Kansas. But in the words of JoJo, your hopes for a 1 or 2 seed are just "Too Little, Too Late".
By the way, what's up with the robot by the window?
Credit: Clipov.com

* Virginia Tech took out Miami in a very boring 8/9 matchup. Next up: North Carolina. The real question remains the status of Ty Lawson. Judgment call: he plays 15-20 minutes. Question to Pay: If Ty Lawson doesn't play, could that damage the value of a Hokie win? Enough at least to keep them outside of the bubble still?

* #1-seed Louisville jumped up on Providence early and never sweated during a double-digit victory. Will Providence be the "last" Big East team? Not likely. It looks like the conference will get 7 bids this season, not 10 as some predicted earlier this season.

* Villanova is up 34-22 in the first half against Marquette. Clearly the Golden Warriors are going to suffer as much as 2 or 3-seed lines due to loss of Dominic James. It's a shame considering how entertaining the first two matchups were, with a healthy James, between these two teams. Looking at the recent schedule and subsequent performance, you can't really blame the tournament committee if they make that decision. Villanova has a legitimate chance to cut down the nets in MSG. Seriously.

* Arizona and Arizona State are tipping at 12 noon on the "Left Coast". I'll be interested to see whom that affects more. Arizona can't afford a blowout here. Although the skeptic in me believes they'll make the tournament regardless. Any chance the Sun Devils want to make a statement after their bubble was bursted last season???

* Xavier avoided a letdown in the A10 opener. Sorry, but this conference lost my attention after the Musketeer's run to the Elite Eight last season ended.

Plenty to enjoy the rest of the day.
Oh yeah, Donte Green continues to be a bad memory for Cuse fans.

9:45 pm: Checking back in...

In the words of Trik Turner, "You know I'm down even when them odds are against us. It doesn't even matter, nothing else matters." Of course I'll watch the Cuse, win or lose.

Credit: MTV.com

* Georgia Tech upset Clemson. No surprise as the Tigers start 16-0 and finish 7-8. They did sneak up on a few people last season come bracket time though. Not this season, in my opinion.

* BYU got rid of pesky Air Force in the 2nd half.

* Washington continues to roll. They may be the hottest team west of the Mississippi.

* In case you haven't heard, West Virginia toppled #2-seed Pitt in the first real upset of the quarterfinals, 74-60. This proves Bob Huggins has his team playing rock solid basketball AND that Pitt is a legit Final Four contender. Not expending themselves completely this weekend is a good thing. Of course, this does mean no Pitt/UCONN #3.

* Over/under for Thabeet's blocks tonight is 7. He may have a triple double against the hobbled Onuaku and erratic Jackson/Ongenaet.

* James Anderson hit two free throws with 2.3 seconds to go and the Cowboys took out the Sooners 71-70. Blake Griffin and company are a shaky skaky bet in the coming weeks. I just don't trust this team and this coach to make the Final Four, Terminator and all.

* Missouri, in the "driver's seat" for the Big XII championship, draws Texas Tech and Mike Singletary (aka Mr. 29-points-in-a-row) tonight. Could the Big XII potentially have another "Georgia of 2008" on their hands?

Time to pull my hair out to the tune of Jeff Adrien collecting another W against the Orange.
Stanley Robinson is an annoying ass.

Our Time Is Now: ACC Breakdown and pre-Tournament Forecasting

A few nights ago, I broke down the Big East and predicted what each non-lock Big East team still vying for an at-large bid needed to do in order to dance in two weeks. Today, it’s the ACC’s turn.

To date, I posit that no less than five ACC teams have punched their ticket for The Big Dance and no more than three teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at the ACC Tournament in Atlanta. That leaves four teams vying for at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am once again using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.

IN: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson
OUT: NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
NOT YET IN: Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami-FL

Boston College 20-9 (8-6)
Key Wins: @ UNC, v. Duke, UAB (N), v. Florida State, @ Maryland, v. Providence
Remaining Games: @ NC State (L), v. Georgia Tech (W)
Projected Record: 21-10 (9-7)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 3-3

Maryland 18-10 (7-7)
Key Wins: v. UNC, Michigan State (N), Miami-FL (S), v. Virginia Tech, v. Michigan, v. Vermont
Remaining Games: v. Wake Forest (L), @ Virginia (W)
Projected Record: 19-11 (8-8)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 1-6

Virginia Tech 17-11 (7-7)
Key Wins: @ Wake Forest, Clemson (AS), @ Miami-FL, Boston College (S)
Remaining Games: v. UNC (L), @ Florida State (L)
Projected Record: 17-13 (7-9)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 3-5

Miami 17-10 (6-8)
Key Wins: v. Wake Forest, Florida State (S), Boston College (2), Maryland (S)
Remaining Games: @ Georgia Tech (W), v. NC State (W)
Projected Record: 19-10 (8-8)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 4-5

As a result of this exercise, Boston College finishes 9-7, which ties them with Clemson; however, Clemson wins the head-to-head tie-breaker. That said, BC earns the 6th seed. Maryland takes the tie-breaker for 7th place over Miami by virtue of their win over North Carolina. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech would finish 7-9 (even though I think they will split their last two) and would face Miami in the 8/9 clash.

********

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

Boston College: Nothing (so long as they have 9 conference wins given their high number of quality wins)

Maryland: Win at least 1 game (likely versus NC State) and compete admirably against the #2 seed (likely Duke)

Miami: Win at least 1 game (likely versus Virginia Tech) and play like they belong in the NCAA Tournament against UNC

Virginia Tech: Win 1 game (likely versus Miami) and hope that no bids are stolen in the Horizon League, Conference USA, the Mountain West, the A-10 and the West Coast Conference. Also, Tech would definitely be in the NCAA Tournament with 2 wins (likely versus Miami and UNC).

The Future’s For Discovering: Big East Bubble Breakdown and Pre-MSG Forecasting

To date, a conservative estimate posits that no less than five Big East teams have punched their ticket for March Madness and no more than five teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at Madison Square Garden. That leaves a whopping six teams vying for additional at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions. For that reason, I underlined two projected upsets that may be controversial.

IN: UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova
OUT: Seton Hall, St. John’s, South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul
NOT YET IN: Providence, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Providence 17-11 (9-7)
Key Wins: v. Pittsburgh, v. Syracuse, Cincinnati (2x), Rhode Island
Remaining Games: @ Rutgers (W), @ Villanova (L)
Projected Record: 18-12 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-4

Syracuse 20-8 (8-7)
Key Wins: Florida (N), Kansas (SA), @ Memphis, v. Notre Dame, v. West Virginia, Georgetown (S)
Remaining Games: v. Cincinnati (W), v. Rutgers (W), @ Marquette (L)
Projected Record: 22-9 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

West Virginia 19-9 (8-7)
Key Wins: v. Villanova, @ Ohio State, @ Georgetown, v. Providence, v. Notre Dame
Remaining Games: @ South Florida (W), v. DePaul (W), v. Louisville (W)
Projected Record: 22-9 (11-7)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Cincinnati 18-10 (8-7)
Key Wins: Georgetown (2x), v. West Virginia, v. Notre Dame, @UNLV, v. UAB
Remaining Games: @ Syracuse (L), @ South Florida (W), v. Seton Hall (W)
Projected Record: 20-11 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

Notre Dame 16-12 (7-9)
Key Wins: Texas (N), Louisville (S), Georgetown, @ Providence
Remaining Games: v. Villanova (W), v. St. John’s (W)
Projected Record: 18-12 (9-9)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Georgetown 15-12 (6-10)
Key Wins: @ UConn, v. Memphis, @ Villanova, Syracuse (S), v. Providence, Maryland (N)
Remaining Games: @ St. John’s (W), v. DePaul (W)
Projected Record: 17-12 (8-10)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 2-4

As a result of this exercise, West Virginia finishes alone in 6^th place. Three teams tie for a 10-8 regular season mark. If the tie-breaker of choice is each team’s record against the other three, here is how it would break down.

Providence: 3-0 (7^th seed)
Syracuse: 1-1 (8^th seed)
Cincinnati: 0-3 (9^th seed)
Notre Dame earns the 10^th seed and Georgetown takes the 11^th.

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

West Virginia: Absolutely nothing (if they defeat Louisville in the season finale)
Providence: Win at least 1 game (win would have to be against Notre Dame) and advance to quarterfinals
Syracuse: Nothing (barring no costly injuries)
Cincinnati: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Syracuse) and advance to quarterfinals
Notre Dame: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Providence) and advance to quarterfinals
Georgetown: Win 1 game; 2nd win (would be versus West Virginia) would lock up a certain bid with road/neutral wins against UConn, Villanova, West Virginia and Maryland.

10 Questions to the Editor - Bracket Style [Take 3]

The past few weeks have proved highly beneficial, so no need to banter anymore.
Questions: [Take 1] [Take 2]
Answer: [Take 1] [Take 2]

Let's roll!!!
I'm also freaking out WAY too much about Bart Scott (man crush). Geez.

What's it gonna take for Tyreke Evans to lead Memphis to a (quasi) improbably #1-seed?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Question #1: "On the Outside Looking In...Sorta"
Who has the best shot at a #1 seed: Memphis or Michigan State? And please, don't tell me neither (even if that's the case).

Question #2: "East Coast Bias"
Which team west of the Mississippi isn't getting enough respect: Washington, Arizona State, or Utah?

Question #3: "Bengals from the Bayou"
How has LSU remained under the radar so much? Is SEC basketball that unexciting and uninspiring this season (outside of Mr. Meeks)? Are they a legitimate threat in the tournament?

Question #4: "Hurricane Season???"
Which team is more likely to have a costly hiccup in their remaining games: Miami (Fl) or South Carolina?

Question #5: "(Mid) Major Dilemma!"
What's the (updated) prognoses on teams like Utah State, Creighton, and Sienna, assuming neither of the three wins their conference tournament?

I'm afraid March madness will be Maynor-free, as long as VCU lacks a second scoring threat.
Somehow, Mason-ites won't miss him too much.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Question #6: "50/50"
Pick an ACC and a Big Ten team - out of each pairing - who you favor as being more likely to secure an at-large birth: Big Ten (Penn State or Michigan) & ACC (Virginia Tech or Maryland).

***Bonus Question***
What did you answer for the poll (Chalmber is Chalmers, btw...thanks Clement) and why? Just a sentence or two will do.


Oh yeah - for the audience - why exactly aren't you watching 30 Rock, yet?
It's funnier than The Office. Yeah, I said it. Meant it, too.

10 Questions to the Editor - Bracket Style [Take 2]

Last week's column was such a success (both the questions and the answers), that Pay and I decided this will be a weekly installment until Selection Sunday.

Let's get into it, with a half-dozen questions (plus-one, fittingly) for our resident bracket expert.

Judging by their recent loss to the Citadel, more than just ESPN is hoping Stephen Curry laces up his sneakers and plays Butler on Saturday. It's a 12-noon tipoff, by the way.

Credit: NBCSports.com

Question #1: "The Other Tyler in Chapel Hill"
What does Tyler Zeller's return mean to North Carolina's rotation? Will he become a major factor or perhaps hinder the minutes of contributors off the bench? Is 5 regular season games and the ACC Tournament enough time for him to be prepared for major minutes come March Madness?

Question #2: "Cinderella Arrives at MSG"
Which Big East "letdown" do you see more capable of making a legitimate run at MSG: Georgetown or Notre Dame?

Question #3: "Judgment Day"
Oklahoma may be the #1 team in the country next week. What else should we know about them, for better or worse, besides "The Terminator" Blake Griffin?

Question #4: "Hokie Hotline"
Is there anyone in college basketball who has a more murderous road ahead than "bubbly" Virginia Tech (home and away w/ Florida State, Duke, UNC, and @Clemson)?

Question #5: "Bracketbusters Galore"
Should Stephen Curry play in the bracketbuster game? Is it worth it to risk further injury due to Saturday's matchup being such an important matchup against Butler?

Question #6: "Revenge of 2008???"
Which team is a more dangerous matchup come March Madness: Memphis or Kansas?

***Bonus Question***
Let's be geeks for a moment. If you could have any starting 5 (plus a 6th man) in the country - without the following 5 - who would it be? You might consider matching up against this squad.
C - Hasheem Thabeet [C, Connecticut]
PF - Tyler Hansbrough [F, North Carolina]
SF - Blake Griffin [F, Oklahoma] (we know it's a stretch, but Blake will excel at any position on the frontline)
SG - Stephen Curry [G, Davidson] (yes, he'd be 100% healthy)
PG - Ty Lawson [PG, North Carolina]
6th Man: James Harden [G, Arizona State]

See ya soon, boss.

Will either of Pitt's top performers - Fields & Blair (Young not pictured) - crack Pay's squad?
Only time will tell...
Credit: MSNBC.com

Friday FourCast: Bubble Talk Continues...

The FourCast, barely two days old in its college basketball format, is already undergoing several radical changes.

First off, we’re going to target the eight best matchups of the day (because 4 +4 is 8!). Fortunately for your eyes, we’re only giving each game ONE sentence.

We’re also projecting four thoughts from the past day (in this case, Thursday). Finally, I’m asking our “Bracket expert” Paymon (who I assure you won’t change his picks at 5:52pm Sunday evening) four questions that are clawing me deep into my bone marrow.

Yes, I said bone marrow.

Some of us "experts" need to take quantum physics to explain how VCU and the "Dagger" will return to the tourney in 2008.
Credit: NY Times.com

FourCast Four Thoughts:

1) West Virginia not only pushed itself into “lock” status, but might start climbing up the big board with its impressive victory over (my pick to cut down the nets in MSG) the UCONN Huskies. Joe Alexander poured in 34 and the Mountaineers might have exposed UCONN’s questionable perimeter defense.

2) Houston said bye-bye to a desperately-needed Conference USA tourney run with a rather embarrassing loss to UTEP. Does this affect a certain Richmond-based team who needs Houston to look as good (but not too good)?

3) Apparently, UCLA doesn’t need all the calls. Often, teams like this can be discounted or even swept under the radar. What appears clear is that UCLA should earn the West’s #1 seed and even if they do not, they may be just as dangerous as they were last as the #2 seed out of their preferred region.

4) Teams who are livin’ on a bubble prayer (hello VCU!) better hope that teams like New Mexico, UNLV and Texas A&M are bit by the upset bug. Of course, that’s highly unlikely. HIGHLY.

FourCast Four Questions:
1) How damaging was Baylor’s 2-overtime loss to (12-19) Colorado?

It’s damaging enough to place them firmly onto the bubble, rather than near “lock” status. I think their early season neutral court wins will get them over the hump. I’ll take 9 wins in a top 3 conference and a neutral court victory over ‘Gody over most of the bubble boys any day.

2) Is Villanova truly “in” with their victory over Syracuse? Or was their drubbing from Georgetown (combined with a 3-6 record against the RPI Top 50 and several BAD losses – DePaul & Rutgers notably) enough to put them as one of the last four teams out?

Anyone familiar with Villanova knows exactly how aggravating it is to follow the team. Because of the criteria set before you, Villanova will be among the teams that Clement and I will be discussing at length on Sunday afternoon.

3) Arizona State’s standing has been far more pessimistic in brackets outside of yours. How damaging was their 4-point loss to OJ Mayo and the Trojans?

According to the Bracket Matrix, 41 of 53 bracket projectionists have Arizona State in the field of 65, but the average seed is 11. On their loss, I didn’t see it as damaging at all, except for it meaning that Arizona State has a losing conference record and an ugly RPI. They played tough defense against a stout USC team and fell short of forcing overtime, no thanks to PAC-10 officials.

4) Why is everyone so in love as of late with New Mexico?

I’ve been absent from this love party for New Mexico. There’s this bizarre belief that the Mountain West will be a two-bid conference, even if BYU wins the conference tournament. The 24 wins are impressive, but they are due in large part to fattening up on weak teams and at home. Of their 31 games, the Lobos played 18 on their home court. Their best win outside of Albuquerque was at San Diego State.

8 Games to Watch on Friday (or as WJFK’s Don & Mike say…Fri-dee!):

Michigan vs. Wisconsin
-Alright UM fans, this is your shot to make a 9-21 season end on as high a note as possible for a 9-21 team.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State
-A #1 seed for Texas is still far from out of the question.

Miami (FL) vs. Virginia Tech
-Hokie fans were crying to me how much they wanted to avoid the ‘Canes. Tough break.

Xavier vs. St. Joseph’s
-The Red Hawks need this win if they want to keep their legit tourney hopes alive.

Georgetown vs. West Virginia

A) Who underrated Georgetown a month ago (ME!)

B) Who underrated WVU’s 11-win conference performance (Pay!)

Temple vs. UMass Charlotte
-With UMASS coughing up an 18-point lead, will Pay’s brilliance of sticking with Temple be rewarded with an A-10 Championship Game birth?

USC vs. UCLA
-This should clinch a #1 seed, in my opinion, for UCLA…if they win, of course.

Washington State vs. Stanford
-Forget this matchup, what about the Thursday night losers and their bubble fates (Arizona does seem safer than Oregon, right?)?

Hope you enjoyed the new format! It’s gonna be around for another 12 hours or so…