Sweet Sixteen: Questions without Answers...yet (Part II)

Continuing what will be two days and four posts.

You might hear more from me - or Pay - otherwise; however, I'm going to ride my tournament momentum and address a few issues on the upcoming weekend of regional semi-finals and finals.

Midwest = Mid-day Monday
West = Late Monday (aka BELOW)

East = Early Tuesday
South = Mid-to-late Tuesday

Izzo and Sparty already got their due.
Up next: the West Regional.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

West Region: #1 Syracuse vs. #5. Butler

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Syracuse QUESTION: The health of Arinze Onuaku is a pre-existing circumstance. One I've mentioned more than enough, right? That aside, question is: what can Syracuse expect from the point guard position (duo of freshman Brandon Triche & sophomore Scoop Jardine) on both sides of the ball?

Syracuse X-FACTOR: How does Butler deal with the 2-3 zone? If they can't hit outside shots early and the Orange can rebound, much like they did against Gonzaga, things should go quite smoothly again for the Orange. Key word: can't.

Orange(man) I'm Watching: Wes Johnson was Big East Player of the Year and a 1st-team All American. Whether or not Onuaku plays (broken record?), he needs to be more selfish. Problem is, that's against Johnson's nature. Bigger problem is, how do you ask that without giving him potentially too much range? Credit the relationship he has with his teammates and, most of all, Jim Boeheim for that answer.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Butler QUESTION: Out of conference opponents often struggle mightily against Syracuse's 2-3 zone. You don't see a zone like it often (or at all) and especially not with the length and athleticism Syracuse has. Butler has 3 days to prepare to attack it. Question is, how do you simulate that type of length and proficiency in practice?

Butler X-FACTOR: Outside shooting. His 10+ 3s and you can beat the Orange. Louisville did it, twice. Attack the zone and run and gun with the Orange and you can beat them. Georgetown did. Greg Monroe gave the blueprint for a big man. Either way, you need to score 90+ or hold the Orange 20% below their FG average to beat them. Don't turnover the ball either. And defend Andy Rautins well. Don't underestimate Butler being able to do a few of those things potentially.

Bulldog I'm Watching: Shelvin Mack. 25 against UTEP, but only 11 against Murray State. Mack will need to be productive from the perimeter and help break down the zone in order for the Bulldogs to keep up a consistent offensive pace. Long lapses are the worst nightmare for the Bulldogs next Thursday.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#6. Xavier vs. #2. Kansas State

Xavier QUESTION: No need to ellaborate. TEMPO is the be all, end all of this game. Question is, how do the Musketeers force Kansas State into their tempo and avoid running up and down the court against superrior athletes?

Xavier X-FACTOR: Xavier didn't rebound very well down the stretch against Pitt (outrebounded 35-29). That could be an issue against Kansas State. It you give Jacob Pullen multiple opportunities, he'll burn you. Big time.

Musketeer I'm Watching: Dante Jackson better stop missing free throws late. He did in the A-10 semi-finals and it burned the Musketeers. He did it against the Panthers on Sunday evening and it ALMOST did again. If Jackson can't contribute in late stretches - and more than just on a leadership level - the Musketeers won't put up enough points to defeat the Wildcats.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Kansas State QUESTION: Question is, how does Frank Martin allow his guards to have free range without turning the ball over and forcing poor shots? Xavier values possessions as well as any team in the nation. That means you better do the same. Otherwise, an 7-8 point lead against the Musketeers may feel like 15+ from other opponents.

Kansas State X-FACTOR: Speed and athleticism. Pullen and Clemente should get to the line 10+ times EACH. Both are ridiculously quick off of the rebound, can create their own shot with relative ease, and have no problem hitting from the outside. These two guards must dictate the pace of this game. Which means run, run, run.

Wildcat I'm Watching: Jacob Pullen is a star. His hip-injury is a little overplayed and it won't bother him. If he wants to do so much more than what Michael Beasley ever could in Manhattan (Kansas), he'll deliver in the clutch on Thursday night and put his team close to the brink of what was once seemingly unthinkable: a Final Four appearance.

The East regional gets it due earlier tomorrow. Until then...

NCAA Tournament Running Commentary: Sunday Afternoon Edition

It's no surprise that CBS selected Syracuse and Gonzaga for the nationally-televised 12:10pm start. Syracuse is a popular team in more than just upstate New York, Gonzaga is a name even the most novice college basketball recognizes instantly, and the injury to Arinze Onuaku is a story that's easy to sell.

Johnson's ability to attack the hoop, as well as shoot the 3-ball, was unmatched today by the 'Zags.
Credit: ESPN.go.com

Not to mention, Syracuse is a 1-seed and was buried at 9:55 pm on Friday night.

Unfortunately for Gus Johnson fans, today's game was over with rather quickly. A competitive early 10 minutes had a few Orange fans (like me) worried ; however, it was the 3rd foul on Rick Jackson - the only legit foul the big man committed in the 1st half - that changed the game for the Cuse...for the better.

Gonzaga's offensive game plan completely stalled, their guards were unable to hit perimeter shots, the 2-3 zone set in (especially up at the top), DeShonte Riley didn't bring upon the apocalypse, and Wesley Johnson reminded viewers why he was a LEGIT selection as a 1st-team All America (the school's first since Hakim Warrick in 2005) and the Big East Player of the Year. An award voted on by Big East coaches, not sportswriters.

The Orange built a halftime lead of 15 and extended it to almost 30 before the under-12 timeout in the 2nd half. The start of each of the second-halves in Buffalo have been shooting exhibitions for Andy Rautins. Len Elmore said it best: "He has in-the-gym range." I'm sure Len was thinking of Troy Bell at some point today, though.

Whereas Brandon Triche (who used the matchup against Vermont to get his shot going) hit BIG outside shots in the 1st half, the aforementioned senior Rautins drained three early 3s in the second. Rick Jackson was a steadying influence in the paint, Kris Joseph dominated the defensive glass, and Wesley Johnson (31 points and 14 rebounds on 11-16 shooting, 4-6 from 3s) was completely unguardable. Simply put, Syracuse didn't simply rely on the outside shot after their lead was built.

The health of Onuaku next week - Cuse will play Butler on Thursday evening/night - is pivotal.
However, Syracuse isn't lost without their talented 6'9 senior. Not yet, at least.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Johnson didn't force outside shots, but he drained most of the one's he took. Maybe the silver lining of an injury to Onuaku is the impetus on Johnson to step up and shine. Johnson seems completely healed from a tough, underreported hand-injury - suffered in a brutal fall against Providence back in February - and perhaps remains as the top overall athlete left in the tournament field.

Boeheim used his new 7-man rotation quite well. DeShonte Riley struggled - as a freshman with limited experience should - but also added a few assists, a couple of nice box outs, and helped spell Jackson during foul trouble with size and length. Things could've gone far, far worse for the 7-foot freshman from Chicago.

As for the Sweet Sixteen matchup in the top-half of the Midwest bracket, Butler will offer a much more difficult matchup for the Orange; especially on the defensive side of the ball. Butler will take 3s, open or not, and has the ability to hit them. Question remains for Syracuse: how well can you rebound the ball and limit second chance opportunities? Gonzaga had very few, which only further hurt their outside shooting. Butler wants this game in the 50s or 60s; whereas Cuse wants to run and gun, with Johnson at the center.

Obviously, after hearing head coach Jim Boeheim talk about his star center's quad injury, Arinze Onuaku seems further away from returning than some of us had expected (hoped). Nevertheless, the lethal outside shooting of Rautins, superstar ability of Johnson, interrior presence of Jackson, versatility of Joseph (who is able to log a TON of minutes), and steadiness from the point guard position duo of Triche and Jardine (Scoop!) leave the Orange as a legit national title contender. Butler should be an improvement upon Gonzaga (of course), but Syracuse is playing great basketball right now (save a brief 5-minute stretch to close out the half against Vermont, although they were up 25 at the time).

In Salt Lake City, if Triche continues to shoot and penetrate with the steadiness and confidence he displayed in Buffalo, that position becomes a completely different one for the Orange. Particularly considering the immense talent Jardine brings as the backup point guard. There may not be a more talented backup at the position in the country.

As a Cuse fan, I couldn't be more pleased right now. But after seeing what St. Mary's and Northern Iowa have done to perceived juggernauts and Butler's final 2 minutes against upstart Murray State, cautiously optimistic is the best I can do.

Listen to Bob Knight...

A few weeks ago, following Kansas State's victory over then-#1 Texas (now #10, by the way with a HUGE home game against #1 Kansas upcoming this week), former coach and current ESPN commentator Bob Knight had a pearl of wisdom following the upset in Manhattan.

"Why chant overrated (if you're the home team's crowd)? That devalues the effort and performance of your own team. Instead, why not chant, 'Good job. Well done.'"

While Knight's alternative wasn't exactly poetic, it was true.

Enter today's impressive 40-minute effort from the Hoyas - despite an avalanche unleashing itself upon the nation's capital - against the 2nd ranked Wildcats of Villanova.

Despite epic winter conditions outside, the Hoyas were all business on the court today.
Wow, that was cliched and corny. Sounds like the AP wrote it, right?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Georgetown won this game, plain and simple. They outplayed, outhustled, and outexecuted one of the very best teams in the nation.

So don't cheapen it, no matter how easy or fun it is, by calling your opponent "overrated". Instead, embrace the victory, your team's stellar performance (100+ points!), and recognize how talented you are; instead of how your opponent just isn't that good.

I know it's a minor detail, but life is about the details.

On a side note, Villanova fouling down the stretch led to Georgetown making a run - with Monroe driving the length of the floor with 15 seconds to go - trying to score 100. A hard foul came in the paint and Monroe took obvious exception. Villanova followed suit.

A few quick memos:
A) To Villanova: If you continue to foul and try and lengthen the game - for whatever reason you want - with less than 70 seconds to go and a 14-point deficit...don't cry if Georgetown tries to score.
B) To Mr. Monroe: If you're going to play in the Big East and try and put 100 on an opponent...expect some physicality and some bruising.

Big East basketball isn't all the way back. If it were the mid-80s, Monroe would have come up bleeding or limping.

Here's a fun moment from Bob Knight, in closing...

Big East Bubble - You Make The Call

Currently, the Big East has five teams that are in great position to make the tournament. They include Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pittsburgh.

Arguably, there are six more teams that are vying for 2 to 3 additional at-large bids. They include Louisville, Notre Dame, South Florida, Marquette, Cincinnati and UConn.

Using data from, RealTimeRPI.com, kenpom.com and remaining schedules, PHSports made game-by-game predictions, leading to a determination of NCAA Tournament status. Additional Big East tournament scenarios are also considered.

So, who do you think will make the NCAA Tournament among these Big East teams? What seed line do you see them falling?

Louisville (14-8, 5-4)
RPI: 40
Pomeroy Rank: 25
Remaining Schedule: v. Rutgers, @ St. John's, @ Syracuse, v. Notre Dame, @ DePaul, v. Georgetown, @ UConn, @ Marquette, v. Syracuse
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-W-L-W-W-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
IN/OUT: IN
Can the Cards lose their first game and still punch their ticket? If Louisville loses 3 in a row heading into the Garden, then a 4th may tip them over the edge. Unless they get blown away, the Cards will be in.


Notre Dame (16-7, 5-5)
RPI: 62
Pomeroy Rank: 77
Remaining Schedule: v. South Florida, @ Seton Hall, v. St. John's, @ Louisville, v. Pittsburgh, @ Georgetown, v. UConn, @ Marquette
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 20-11 (9-9)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-12 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-L-W-L-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (8-10)
IN/OUT: OUT
How far must the Irish go at MSG? A run to the finals, and perhaps winning it because of their poor OOC schedule


South Florida (15-7, 5-5)
RPI: 48
Pomeroy Rank: 66
Remaining Schedule: @ Notre Dame, @ Marquette, v. Cincinnati, v. St. John's, @ Villanova, v. Providence, @ DePaul, v. UConn
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 20-10 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-11 (9-9)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: L-L-L-W-L-W-W-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 18-12 (8-10)
IN/OUT: OUT
If the Bulls go 9-9 or better, will they be in with a pre-round win? Honestly, it depends on how the teams that USF beat perform the rest of the way. If they finish 10-10, they are in.


Marquette (14-8, 5-5)
RPI: 65
Pomeroy Rank: 18
Remaining Schedule: @ Providence, v. South Florida, v. Pitt, @ Cincinnati, @ St. John's, @ Seton Hall, v. Louisville, v. Notre Dame
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 19-11 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 20-10 (11-7)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-W-L-L-W-L-W-W
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-11 (10-8)
IN/OUT: IN
Can Marquette get in with a loss in their first game at the Garden? Yes.


Cincinnati (14-8, 5-5)
RPI: 50
Pomeroy Rank: 69
Remaining Schedule: v. Syracuse, @ UConn, @ South Florida, v. Marquette, v. DePaul, @ West Virginia, v. Villanova, @ Georgetown
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 16-14 (7-11)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 17-13 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: L-L-W-W-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 17-13 (8-10)
IN/OUT: OUT
How far must Cincinnati go to be among the last four teams in? Semifinals of the Big East Tournament


UConn (13-9, 3-6)
RPI: 52
Pomeroy Rank: 47
Remaining Schedule: v. DePaul, @ Syracuse, v. Cincinnati, @ Villanova, @ Rutgers, v. West Virginia, v. Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ South Florida
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 18-13 (8-10)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 18-13 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-L-W-L-W-L-W-W-W
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (9-9)
IN/OUT: IN
What if UConn finishes 8-10 in conference? How many wins do they need in the Big East Tournament? 1 or 2, depending on how the rest of the field shapes up

Age Old Debate: Who's #1???

There are four teams that are vying for #1 in the polls, various power rankings, and in the minds (not necessarily hearts) of America's college basketball electorate.

One of them is a team I have a particular fondness for. Duh.

Kris Joseph. You want me to depend nightly on Kris Joseph? Seriously? Seriously!?!?
Credit: Blog.Syracuse.com

Entering the season, I had tempered expectations. Maybe not to the tune of the Big East coaches - the Cuse were ranked preseason #6 - although I can't admit I figured them for such an impressive 22-1 start.

If you would have asked me which 5 issues were most pressing to the 2009-2010 edition of the Syracuse Orange, I might've sounded similar to this:
A) How do we replace three of our top contributors from last season (Flynn, Devendorf, & Harris) during a tougher-than-usual non-conference schedule?
B) Is Andy Rautins ready to be the on-court leader of this team?
C) Can Arinze Onuaku stay healthy during Big East play?
D) Who is this team's point guard and further more...who on Earth is the backup?
E) I've heard enough talk. How good is Wesley Johnson going to seriously be?

Fortunately, answers weren't as difficult as I thought they'd be. Even after the humiliation of exhibition losses to Le Moyne.

Rather than compiling answers on all 5, I'd be lying if I didn't admit the first question has lingered throughout the season first and foremost, until recently that is. The concept of addition by subtraction - especially with Devendorf and Harris - never rang so true for me.

A lot of eligibility was left on the table. Funny thing is, maybe their leaving (Devendorf, Flynn, & Harris) was the best thing for everyone involved. Even the Orange.
Credit: Syracuse.com

Devendorf and Harris were extremely gifted players, although the game didn't flow so smoothly through either of them. Devendorf was far too erratic off and on the court (to say the very least); meanwhile, Harris relied on physical talent, but lacked the mental toughness to ever truly be a standout. Both of them seemed to hinder the team as much as they helped it at times. Flynn was as talented a PG as this PG-rich school had ever seen. Problem was, he was a shoot-first point guard who didn't play a lick on defense. As soon as he was off, the team was in a funk they couldn't recover. Although I'll never forget their heart during Six in the City. Never.

Top Pro: The 2-3 zone looks as effective as it did in 2003.
Johnny Flynn, unlike Paul Harris or Eric Devendorf, certainly wasn't addition by subtraction on the offensive end. On defense though, Flynn isn't missed at all. Triche is strong and sturdy and Andy Rautins had better be a 1st-team Big East defender. The top of the zone is steady as a rock right now. Meanwhile, the post is clogged regularly by the extremely long and athletic Johnson, alongside big-men Onuaku and Jackson. Enter Kris Joseph's versatility and Jardine's quick hands and quicker feet and the Orange may be the best defensive team in the Big East. A far, far cry from a season ago.

Top Con: Depth. 7 deep and an injury away from trouble.
Pay already hinted at it earlier and he couldn't have been more right. Fortunately for Boeheim and Orange fans, their top 7 is pretty stacked. Especially if the duo of Jardine/Triche continues to play well at the point and Kris Joseph remains one of the nation's top reserves. I can't believe I just said that. If if I had to be picky, I wouldn't mind 5-6 minutes a night for Mookie Jones. Then again...

In the end, there's still far too much to learn in the next six-or-so weeks before tournament time officially begins. Nevertheless, I hope I can enjoy a few more of these from #4 along the way...

PHSports Staff Picks & Predictions: 2009 NCAA Tournament

Sure, none of us correctly predicted Kansas would win it all last year ... but two out of four PHSports writers did have the Jayhawks in the Final Four. So maybe, just maybe, two of us have this year's winner somewhere in our listings as well. Unfortunately, none of us have my "Lawlma Mater" of American getting to the national semifinals ... but hey I can still dream, right?

So kick back, call Papa John's, and start reading how two of us pick UNC and two of us don't, all before tipoff at 12:20 pm EDT.

"I just don't see why we can't have a 640 team tournament instead ..." (Photo by Dennis Nett/The Post Standard)

Paymon
Final Four: Villanova, North Carolina, Louisville, UConn
National Champions: North Carolina over UConn
MOP: AJ Price, UConn

Top Sleeper: Arizona State
Under the Radar: Clemson
Underrated: UCLA
Overrated: Illinois, Oklahoma ... and Memphis

1st -Round Upset I Love: Western Kentucky over Illinois (esp. if Chester Frazier does not play)
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: Syracuse v. Arizona State
Final Comment: I anticipate a paucity of first-round upsets, which will set up a series of marquee games between evenly-matched teams on the tail end of the opening weekend. Ultimately, this tournament, like every other NCAA Tournament, will come down to steady guard play. If Ty Lawson is able to overcome his toe injury and Danny Green gets out of his shooting slump, then I expect the Tar Heels to cut down the nets in Detroit.

Clement
Final Four: Louisville (Midwest), Memphis (West), Villanova (East), North Carolina (South)
National Champions: Louisville Cardinals
MOP: Terrence Williams, Louisville

Top Sleeper: Stephen F. Austin (mid-major), Purdue (major)
Under the Radar: Butler (mid-major), West Virginia (major)
Underrated: Cleveland State (mid-major), Texas (major)
Overrated: VCU (mid-major...ouch), Kansas (major)

1st -Round Upset I Love: Stephen F. Austin (I don't love it. Believe me. Syracuse is 0-2 in opening round games after reaching or winning the Big East Tournament finals. They lost to #13-seed Vermont and #12-seed Texas A&M. I suspect they will start cold and lose a heartbreaker. However, they'll be a Final Four team next year...if Johnny Flynn remains with the Orange.)
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: Eric Maynor and the upstart Rams of VCU barely get by UCLA, setting them up for a match-up - in Philly - against the Villanova Wildcats. Why? I'd be there. I'd also LOVE to see any scenario with a 16-seed winning. Any of them.
Final Comment: This field is much more open than you think. I'm too Big East heavy; however, I also have Pitt out before the Sweet Sixteen (shocker!) and UCONN out before the Elite Eight (surprise!). Louisville will prove me wrong - yet again - and cut the nets down for Pitino.

Armin
Final Four: G'head...hate me...all the #1s make it this year. I'll be the smart-alec that says it.
National Champions: UNC (Sheesh...What's wrong with me?)
MOP: Someone named Tyler (ok...I officially hate myself)

Top Sleeper: Arizona (gotta pick my "alma mater")
Under the Radar: Utah State (that thug they got playing center is a BEAST)
Underrated: Tie...Northern Iowa & Western Kentucky
Overrated: Florida State

1st -Round Upset I Love: Arizona over Utah, of course
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: American vs. VCU....go Virginia!!!!
Final Comment: I'm filling out my sheet with teams that have the best looking cheerleaders. No other strategy has ever helped me do well in my tourney pools...figure I should implement this strategerie. ;)

Sum
Final Four: Louisville (Midwest), Missouri (West), Pitt (East), North Carolina (South)
National Champions: Pitt (over Louisville)
MOP: DeJuan Blair, Pitt

Top Sleeper: West Virginia (major), Western Kentucky (mid-major)
Under the Radar: Clemson (major, Butler (mid-major)
Underrated: Purdue (major), American (mid-major)
Overrated: Oklahoma (major), VCU (mid-major)

1st -Round Upset I Love: Western Kentucky over Illinois. Like Paymon mentioned, Frazier is not at 100% even if he does play, and that will hurt the Illini, especially against a strong 12-seed in Western Kentucky. And yes ... I do think they can repeat their Sweet 16 appearance of last year.
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: UNC vs Butler, especially if Ty Lawson isn't back. Butler is an extremely solid squad that got jobbed (in my opinion) with the 9-seed. I think Butler's defense will give Hansbrough and Co. lots of trouble before finally giving way to the 'Heels in the last 5 minutes of the game.
Final Comment: The tourney is the Big East's to lose. Aside from 2-3 upsets (I don't count 9's beating 8's as an upset), I think the first round will hold true to form. Unfortunately, a lot of deserving mid-majors were excluded from this tournament (read: Creighton and St. Mary's) and saw their rightful spots go to undeserving majors (read: Arizona and Wisconsin). Good to know that Fudgy Packer still has his unannounced seat on the Selection Committee.

Yeah ... you know can't wait to see him at this job instead either. (Credit Tiricosuave.com)

Thanks for listening to us ... now make sure you DON'T bet your savings on our picks (though it's safer than investing in Citi...). Got an opinion? Want to tell us how wrong we are? Chime in below!

Tournament Schedules for the Power Conferences

With the tournament matchups set for all of the power conferences, I have included the matchups and schedules below. Those games with clear bubble implications are in red font.

ACC (Georgia Dome -- Atlanta)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Miami, noon
Game 2: No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 NC State, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Boston College vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 5: No. 1 North Carolina vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, noon
Game 6: No. 4 Florida State vs. Game 2 winner, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Wake Forest vs. Game 3 winner, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Duke vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN, 1:30 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN, 4 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 1 p.m.

BIG EAST (MSG - New York City)

FIRST ROUND
Tuesday, March 10
Game 1: No. 9 Cincinnati vs. No. 16 DePaul, noon
Game 2: No. 12 Georgetown vs. No. 13 St. John's, 2 p.m.
Game 3: No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 15 Rutgers, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 11 Seton Hall vs. No. 14 South Florida, 9 p.m.
SECOND ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 5: No. 8 Providence vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 6: No. 5 Marquette vs. Game 2 winner, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 7: No. 7 West Virginia vs. Game 3 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 6 Syracuse vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 9: No. 1 Louisville vs. Game 5 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 10: No. 4 Villanova vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 11: No. 2 Pittsburgh vs. Game 7 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 12: No. 3 Connecticut vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 15: Game 13 winner vs. Game 14 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.

BIG TEN (Conseco Fieldhouse -- Indianapolis)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Northwestern, noon
Game 2: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Iowa, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana, ESPN2, 5 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 4: No. 1 Michigan State vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 5: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Ohio State, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 Illinois vs. Game 2 winner, 6:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 3 Purdue vs. Game 3 winner, 9 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 1:40 p.m.
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 4:05 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 10: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 3:30 p.m.

BIG 12 (Ford Center -- Oklahoma City)

FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Baylor, 12:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Colorado, 3 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Iowa State, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Texas Tech, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 5: No. 1 Kansas vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, 12:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 4 Kansas State vs. Game 2 winner, 3 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Missouri vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 9:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 6 p.m.

PAC-10 (Staples Center -- Los Angeles)

FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Oregon State vs. No. 9 Stanford, 9 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Oregon, 11:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 3: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Arizona, 3 p.m.
Game 4: No. 1 Washington vs. Game 1 winner, 5:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 3 California vs. No. 6 USC, 9 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 UCLA vs. Game 2 winner, 11:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 9 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 11:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 6 p.m.

SEC (St. Pete Times Forum -- Tampa)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: E4 Kentucky vs. W5 Ole Miss, 1 p.m.
Game 2: W3 Mississippi State vs. E6 Georgia, 3:15 p.m.
Game 3: W4 Alabama vs. E5 Vanderbilt, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: E3 Florida vs. W6 Arkansas, 9:45 p.m.
SECOND ROUND
Friday, March 13
Game 5: W1 LSU vs. Game 1 winner, 1 p.m.
Game 6: E2 South Carolina vs. Game 2 winner, 3:15 p.m.
Game 7: E1 Tennessee vs. Game 3 winner, 7:30 p.m.
Game 8: W2 Auburn vs. Game 4 winner, 9:45 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN2, 1 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN2, 3:15 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 1 p.m.

Desperation is a Stinky Cologne

Georgetown and Cincinnati confirmed that notion this evening.

After holding a firm 15-point lead in the Garden, Georgetown blew it. Plain and simple. Though they were hard done by a timeout that should not have been granted and a foul that was not in the last 15 seconds of regulation, it never should have even been a game at that juncture. Three letters summarize my thoughts. N-I-T. JT3 should pay back his salary a la Bob Knight. His players looked clueless and underprepared in the closing minutes.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State won a must-win game against fellow bubble team Kansas State behind the leadership of senior guard Byron Eaton. 15 for 15 from the charity stripe. 'Nuff said.

At Cameron Indoor, Duke was behind for much of the night but they seem to be in firm position with under a minute left behind some hot shooting by Kyle Singler. In an amazing development, Leonard Hamilton is still wearing his tie.

Also, Maryland, Ohio State, Utah and Syracuse are knotted up in close games, all with severe at-large bid implications.

The Future’s For Discovering: Big East Bubble Breakdown and Pre-MSG Forecasting

To date, a conservative estimate posits that no less than five Big East teams have punched their ticket for March Madness and no more than five teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at Madison Square Garden. That leaves a whopping six teams vying for additional at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions. For that reason, I underlined two projected upsets that may be controversial.

IN: UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova
OUT: Seton Hall, St. John’s, South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul
NOT YET IN: Providence, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Providence 17-11 (9-7)
Key Wins: v. Pittsburgh, v. Syracuse, Cincinnati (2x), Rhode Island
Remaining Games: @ Rutgers (W), @ Villanova (L)
Projected Record: 18-12 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-4

Syracuse 20-8 (8-7)
Key Wins: Florida (N), Kansas (SA), @ Memphis, v. Notre Dame, v. West Virginia, Georgetown (S)
Remaining Games: v. Cincinnati (W), v. Rutgers (W), @ Marquette (L)
Projected Record: 22-9 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

West Virginia 19-9 (8-7)
Key Wins: v. Villanova, @ Ohio State, @ Georgetown, v. Providence, v. Notre Dame
Remaining Games: @ South Florida (W), v. DePaul (W), v. Louisville (W)
Projected Record: 22-9 (11-7)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Cincinnati 18-10 (8-7)
Key Wins: Georgetown (2x), v. West Virginia, v. Notre Dame, @UNLV, v. UAB
Remaining Games: @ Syracuse (L), @ South Florida (W), v. Seton Hall (W)
Projected Record: 20-11 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

Notre Dame 16-12 (7-9)
Key Wins: Texas (N), Louisville (S), Georgetown, @ Providence
Remaining Games: v. Villanova (W), v. St. John’s (W)
Projected Record: 18-12 (9-9)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Georgetown 15-12 (6-10)
Key Wins: @ UConn, v. Memphis, @ Villanova, Syracuse (S), v. Providence, Maryland (N)
Remaining Games: @ St. John’s (W), v. DePaul (W)
Projected Record: 17-12 (8-10)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 2-4

As a result of this exercise, West Virginia finishes alone in 6^th place. Three teams tie for a 10-8 regular season mark. If the tie-breaker of choice is each team’s record against the other three, here is how it would break down.

Providence: 3-0 (7^th seed)
Syracuse: 1-1 (8^th seed)
Cincinnati: 0-3 (9^th seed)
Notre Dame earns the 10^th seed and Georgetown takes the 11^th.

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

West Virginia: Absolutely nothing (if they defeat Louisville in the season finale)
Providence: Win at least 1 game (win would have to be against Notre Dame) and advance to quarterfinals
Syracuse: Nothing (barring no costly injuries)
Cincinnati: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Syracuse) and advance to quarterfinals
Notre Dame: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Providence) and advance to quarterfinals
Georgetown: Win 1 game; 2nd win (would be versus West Virginia) would lock up a certain bid with road/neutral wins against UConn, Villanova, West Virginia and Maryland.

10 Questions to the Editor - Bracket Style [Take 2]

Last week's column was such a success (both the questions and the answers), that Pay and I decided this will be a weekly installment until Selection Sunday.

Let's get into it, with a half-dozen questions (plus-one, fittingly) for our resident bracket expert.

Judging by their recent loss to the Citadel, more than just ESPN is hoping Stephen Curry laces up his sneakers and plays Butler on Saturday. It's a 12-noon tipoff, by the way.

Credit: NBCSports.com

Question #1: "The Other Tyler in Chapel Hill"
What does Tyler Zeller's return mean to North Carolina's rotation? Will he become a major factor or perhaps hinder the minutes of contributors off the bench? Is 5 regular season games and the ACC Tournament enough time for him to be prepared for major minutes come March Madness?

Question #2: "Cinderella Arrives at MSG"
Which Big East "letdown" do you see more capable of making a legitimate run at MSG: Georgetown or Notre Dame?

Question #3: "Judgment Day"
Oklahoma may be the #1 team in the country next week. What else should we know about them, for better or worse, besides "The Terminator" Blake Griffin?

Question #4: "Hokie Hotline"
Is there anyone in college basketball who has a more murderous road ahead than "bubbly" Virginia Tech (home and away w/ Florida State, Duke, UNC, and @Clemson)?

Question #5: "Bracketbusters Galore"
Should Stephen Curry play in the bracketbuster game? Is it worth it to risk further injury due to Saturday's matchup being such an important matchup against Butler?

Question #6: "Revenge of 2008???"
Which team is a more dangerous matchup come March Madness: Memphis or Kansas?

***Bonus Question***
Let's be geeks for a moment. If you could have any starting 5 (plus a 6th man) in the country - without the following 5 - who would it be? You might consider matching up against this squad.
C - Hasheem Thabeet [C, Connecticut]
PF - Tyler Hansbrough [F, North Carolina]
SF - Blake Griffin [F, Oklahoma] (we know it's a stretch, but Blake will excel at any position on the frontline)
SG - Stephen Curry [G, Davidson] (yes, he'd be 100% healthy)
PG - Ty Lawson [PG, North Carolina]
6th Man: James Harden [G, Arizona State]

See ya soon, boss.

Will either of Pitt's top performers - Fields & Blair (Young not pictured) - crack Pay's squad?
Only time will tell...
Credit: MSNBC.com

10 Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style

Yesterday, Clement had a chance to collect questions relevant to the NCAA Tournament from numerous PHSports stakeholders. Today, I answer those questions. Simple enough.

ACC Country
Q: With FSU enjoying plenty of recent success, who has a tougher road to an at-large berth in the crowded ACC: Virginia Tech or Boston College?
A: In short, Virginia Tech has the tougher road to an at-large berth because BC's signature win (@ UNC) grows stronger by the day. The Hokies also have a tougher schedule with 5 of their last 6 against teams with a .600 winning percentage in % or better. That said, there is never a day off in the ACC and both teams are capable of defeating top teams or playing to the level of lesser competition.

UPDATE: This question was answered for us.

Q: Is Maryland only a miracle run in the ACC Tourney away from returning to the Big Dance?
A: Since a home loss against BC, Maryland has been playing its best string of games this year. To garner consideration, they need to win a game or two that they are not expected to (@ Clemson, v. Duke, v. UNC, v. Wake) and take care of weaker teams away from the Comcast Center. Mind you, this is the same team that trounced Michigan State early in the season. If the Selection Committee sees anything like that result, then watch out. To answer your question, it depends on seeding. Likely, Maryland will need two wins in the ACC Tournament and a collapse by one of the teams ahead of them.

Big East Talk
Q: Cincinnati appears to be on the upswing while Georgetown remains stuck in the abyss after a tough loss at the Carrier Dome. Meanwhile, Notre Dame shakes off 7-straight losses - many of them ugly ones - to destroy Louisville. Last night, West Virginia pounds Villanova and reminds us about their dangerous talent. Assuming UCONN, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova, and (maybe) even the Cuse are locks for March Madness...what happens to the "rest of the field", including the aformentioneds (Georgetown, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, West Virginia) as well as Providence.
A: First, let's take WVU out of this discussion. They have a stronger resume, have a real chance at 10 wins in conference and have Pitt and Louisville scheduled twice each. After them, I'd put the Bearcats into the field of 65, who are not the prettiest team to watch, but grind it out for 40 minutes. They also have two extremely winnable games in addition to three chances to pad the resume against Louisville, WVU and the Cuse. On the outside looking in, I'd put Notre Dame and Georgetown. The Irish earned their first signature win of the year, but can they keep it going? Realistically speaking, can they play strong defense again? As for the Hoyas, they have the best wins among this group and can return to the fold with a 8-10 conference record plus two wins in the Big East Tournament, including 1-2 games against teams that they are not expected to beat given their current form.

CAA Speak
Q: Do you think a darkhorse can emerge come CAA Tournament time, or do you believe VCU/Mason are the odds on favorites - even with a talented Northeastern team tied atop the standings - to cut down the nets in Richmond?
A: Absolutely. Any of the top seven teams (VCU, Mason, Nor'Easter, Drexel, Hofstra, Old Dominion, James Madison) in this conference have a 'good' chance to make the finals. I still think VCU is the favorite because all they need is Maynor plus two for three games. Rams fans know that's easier said than done this season, but that's asking less than what other teams demand.

Big Ten Bias
Q: Will Penn State right the ship, or are they looking more and more like an early bloomer who will fade well before Selection Sunday?
A: The Nittany Lions stole a must-win game from Minnesota with dominating play in the final four minutes (thanks to a guy named Battle), which killed the assertion that they fade in the face of urgency. Unless they win 10 games in conference, they will need to advance to the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament.

Missouri Valley Time
Q: With an impressive showing Bracketbuster weekend (more below), can Northern Iowa and Creighton secure bids, assuming one of them wins the conference championship over the other?
A: No. Creighton had plenty of missed opportunities in non-conference play. Northern Iowa has no chance to secure a berth other than winning the automatic bid.

Pac-10 Pontification
Q: I can't figure out this conference one bit. Can we get a sentence or two on the postseason "likelihoods" for Arizona, USC, and Cal?
A: USC has the weakest resume of the three but has the best adjusted defensive efficiency, which is conducive to winning. Arizona has the strongest win and the hottest, but Cal has the strongest non-conference resume. It's a web confusion and trend data is useless in the PAC 10.

WCC
Q: What's the best case (realistic) scenario for St. Mary's - sans Patty Mills - right now? If he can return before tournament time, how much can the Selection Committee take into account his injury and their play before it? Is that fair to do so?
A: There is more conditional speak here than in a legal document. Mills is scheduled to return right before the WCC Tournament; therefore, the Selection Committee will pay special attention to the Gaels form and Mills's effectiveness. Nothing short of a trip to the finals (and losing to Gonzaga) will garner consideration for an at-large bid. Also the Gaels would need plenty of help from bubble teams who would play the role of choke artist.

Prognosis: Negative

Free-for-All
Q: Who is this year's San Diego (winning their conference tournament unexpectedly and then making noise opening weekend of the tournament)? Maybe Portland/Nevada/Niagara/Belmont? Okay, probably not Belmont.
A: If Butler does not win the Horizon League Tournament, then Wisconsin-Green Bay and Cleveland State have a real chance to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament should they face a low-grade protected seed (#11-16 overall).

Bracketbusting
Q: What are your favorite Bracketbuster matchups? Who has the most to gain from the weekend's matchups? Who has the most to lose? Individual team or conferences may apply.
A: Butler/Davidson and Utah State/St. Mary's are diluted by injuries to Stephen Curry and Patty Mills. Davidson and Utah State have the most to gain if their star players do not play and they either impress or win. Consequently, Butler and Utah State have the most to lose if they do not take care of business. By process of elimination and admitting my CAA/George Mason bias, I have three matchups.

VCU @ Nevada -- Can the Nevada guards rattle Eric Maynor? Who will cover Luke Babbitt? Will Larry Sanders be good to go?

George Mason @ Creighton -- Bias aside, this is going to be a beautiful battle of quality guards.

Buffalo @ Vermont -- Oh, those pesky Catamounts! I really want to see how good Buffalo is. Is Turner Gill also coaching the basketball team?

All of this said, none of the mid-majors involved in the BracketBusters are bona fide two-bid conferences (assuming the top teams from these one-bids win their conference tournaments). A TV sweep for the Horizon and MVC *may* garner consideration for a second bid, but I would not bet the bank account.

The Big East Schedule Broken Down

In the Big East this season, teams play 18 conference games, in which they face 12 teams once and 3 teams twice. The list below shows who plays whom twice. In the interest of brevity, I am including those Big East teams with a realistic shot at the NCAA Tournament.

Marquette - DePaul, Georgetown, Villanova

UConn - Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall

Louisville - Notre Dame, West Virginia, South Florida

Pittsburgh - UConn, West Virginia, DePaul

Providence - Cincinnati, Rutgers, Villanova

Villanova - Marquette, Providence, Syracuse

Syracuse - Villanova, Georgetown, Rutgers

West Virginia - Louisville, Pittsburgh, South Florida

Cincinnati - Providence, Georgetown, St. John's

Georgetown - Marquette, Syracuse, Cincinnati

Notre Dame - UConn, Louisville, St. John's

Does this negatively alter your perception of Marquette, Providence and Cincinnati? Or, does it garner sympathy for the likes of Notre Dame or West Virginia in the case that either finishes 8-10 in conference?

The Bubble: 7 Minutes in Heaven or …

As we welcome the entrance of the “mid-major” conference tournaments and the final weekend of play for the “big timers” [Duke/UNC anyone?], there are more than enough teams clinging to desperate hopes of a bid on Selection Sunday .

Some have seen their entire conference struggle down the stretch (that’s you, A-10), others have watched promising seasons wash away (Syracuse), while others have seen the highest of the high and lowest of the low (Texas Tech beats Texas and loses to Oklahoma & Kansas by over 100 points combined in the span of a week).

Nevertheless, there are plenty of schools out there – from those aforementioned “power conferences” – which need as many as 3 or 4 more wins to secure a selection.

While it remains to be seen if teams like Syracuse, Villanova, Texas Tech and St. Joe’s have put themselves in a position to only secure a bid via the automatic circuit (i.e. winning their conference tournament), at least, we have drama.

Along with that drama are the anticipated performances of star players. For, as you will soon see, X-factors on the bubble are not your key swingman off the bench or even your third option.

It’s the #1 guy, stud or dud, who might have to pull a Gerry McNamara and will their team into the NCAA Tournament.

Maryland – Grievis Vasquez

Capable of a triple-double most nights...with turnovers likely the third statistic.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Remaining Game(s): March 9 - @ Virginia
Comment: Vasquez has the unique ability to keep both teams on the floor in the game (thanks Kevin Sheehan of Redskins Radio for that gem). The Terps can ill afford a letdown on the road in Charlottesville, as they don’t have the playmaking ability required to make a deep ACC Tourney run.

Syracuse – Donte Greene

Three straight seasons on the bubble has fans grimacing more than Boeheim.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Remaining Game(s): March 5 - @ Seton Hall, March 9 – Marquette
Comment: Sadly, it took Greene nearly 30 games into his freshman year in upstate New York to abandon the idea of chucking up sixteen 3-balls a game. Unfortunately, Cuse’s 6-man rotation has reeked [sic] havoc on their play in conference. Likely needing to sweep this week and make as many as 2 or 3 major statements in New York in two weekends, it may be two years in a row Syracuse is toiling with NCAA tournament talent in the NIT.

Ohio State – Jamar Butler

From star to role player to star again. The circle of college basketball life.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Remaining Game(s): March 9 – Michigan State
Comment: Pay and I made sure to target in our talking points that Ohio State was afforded a tremendous opportunity drawing ranked-Purdue and Michigan State in the final week of the regular season. Holding serve at home against Purdue Tuesday night went a long way in affording the Buckeyes a crucial banner win. Pulling the upset at home on Saturday versus the Izzos would almost assuredly secure them a tournament bid. Jamar Butler’s 25 against Purdue will need to be repeated, at least, for the Spartans to fall on Saturday.

St. Joseph’s – Pat Calathes

You can't spell A-10 without hustle. Oh wait, maybe you can.
Credit: CollegePublisher.com

Remaining Game(s): March 6 – Xavier, March 8 – @Dayton
Comment: Their 1-point loss to Temple on Sunday night hurt the entire conference potentially. Even worse, the Hawks may wind up on the wrong side of every conceivable bracket projection after losing two games this week they’re more than likely not favored to win. In fact, their showdown at Dayton will almost assuredly knock one of at-large bid contention. That is, unless the Hawks can strike down the top-10 Musketeers and potentially expose their #2 or #3 seed potential.

Kentucky – Joe Crawford

Now that he's hurt (Patterson), we can mention the "other" Kentucky Wildcats.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Remaining Games: March 5 - @South Carolina, March 9 – Florida
Comment: You’ll notice more than a little symmetry with the next two teams. Kentucky lost Patrick Patterson for the season and still played Tennessee to a close 3-point game in Knoxville. Suddenly, that 39-point loss to Vanderbilt back before Valentine’s Day seems a distant memory (or does it?). Much like Maryland and their UVA game, Kentucky can’t afford to fall into the trap-door game at South Carolina tonight. As for Sunday’s matchup with Florida, it’s going to be for more than just positioning in the SEC Tournament. Already losers in OT over a month ago in Gainesville, the Wildcats may not be on the smiling side of the bubble if they drop two of their next three (or worse).

Florida – Marreese Speights & Nick Calathes

So wait, you're telling me that we don't get an automatic bid despite being two-time defending champs?
Credit: TheHype.com

Remaining Games: March 5 – Tennessee, March 9 - @Kentucky
Comment: Almost a mirror image of Ohio State (ironically last year’s national title game opponents), the Gators have plenty of upcoming opportunities this week to impose their will on the Selection Committee. The two-time defending champs have only faced four ranked opponents this season, yet face a potential #1 seed tonight and another bubble team from the SEC East on Sunday. Two losses and even an upset in the SEC Tournament might not be enough for Billy Donovan’s crew.

Dayton – Brian Roberts

Okay, not THAT Brian Roberts. But come on! Catch the fever of O's Baseball!!!
Credit: Journals.AOL.com

Remaining Game(s): March 5 - @ St. Bonaventure, March 8 – St. Joseph’s
Comment: 14-1 seems so long ago. In fact, too long ago (Come back, Chris Wright). One of the ultimate arguments behind closed doors must focus on the Flyers (who at 6-8 in conference right now) own victories @ Louisville and over Pittsburgh (then ranked #6). However, they also have damaging in-conference losses and may end up losing a critical season finale to St. Joe’s. Suppose this team is out by the A-10 semi-finals … good luck keeping them in or out in under three hours of deliberation.

…also considering attention…
Oklahoma State – Byron Eaton
Virginia Tech – A.D. Vassallo
Southern Illinois – Randal Falker
Texas Tech – Martin Zeno
Villanova – Scottie Reynolds

Who is MISSING? It’s not Waldo. However, we’d like to hear YOUR teams and YOUR impact x-factor PLAYERS that will make our jobs as bracket projectionists easier…or much more difficult.

Until next time…

---

Trend Data Trumps Big East Passion

Question: Should the Big East remain the 3rd-rated conference according to the RPI, what percentage of their teams will they advance? What does the trend data suggest?

Year	Conference	Fraction of Participants	Percentage (%)	Seed Numbers
2007	PAC-10	6/10	60.0	2,3,3,5,8,11
2006	ACC	4/12	33.3	1,3,4,10
2005	Big XII	6/12	50.0	2,3,3,6,8,9
2004	Big East	6/14	42.9	3,5,5,6,7,8
2003	ACC	4/9	44.4	2,3,6,9

Total Percentage: 26/57 (44.1%)

As evidenced by the trend data, the last two years have been statistical anomalies and deviate from the five-year average by more than 10 percent. Given this data, it would be reasonable to posit that the #3 conference (currently, The Big East) should gain approximately seven bids. Projections above eight bids or below six bids would be considered statistical outliers.

As for seeding, #11 is the lowest seeding to be gained over this five-year period (Stanford, 2007). Perhaps, the Big East seedings (3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 13) from the January 21 NCAA Tournament Projections may have been harsh. Nevertheless, the allocation percentage (50.0%) is more generous than the five-year average of 44.1%.