PHSports Staff Picks & Predictions: 2009 NCAA Tournament

Sure, none of us correctly predicted Kansas would win it all last year ... but two out of four PHSports writers did have the Jayhawks in the Final Four. So maybe, just maybe, two of us have this year's winner somewhere in our listings as well. Unfortunately, none of us have my "Lawlma Mater" of American getting to the national semifinals ... but hey I can still dream, right?

So kick back, call Papa John's, and start reading how two of us pick UNC and two of us don't, all before tipoff at 12:20 pm EDT.

"I just don't see why we can't have a 640 team tournament instead ..." (Photo by Dennis Nett/The Post Standard)

Paymon
Final Four: Villanova, North Carolina, Louisville, UConn
National Champions: North Carolina over UConn
MOP: AJ Price, UConn

Top Sleeper: Arizona State
Under the Radar: Clemson
Underrated: UCLA
Overrated: Illinois, Oklahoma ... and Memphis

1st -Round Upset I Love: Western Kentucky over Illinois (esp. if Chester Frazier does not play)
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: Syracuse v. Arizona State
Final Comment: I anticipate a paucity of first-round upsets, which will set up a series of marquee games between evenly-matched teams on the tail end of the opening weekend. Ultimately, this tournament, like every other NCAA Tournament, will come down to steady guard play. If Ty Lawson is able to overcome his toe injury and Danny Green gets out of his shooting slump, then I expect the Tar Heels to cut down the nets in Detroit.

Clement
Final Four: Louisville (Midwest), Memphis (West), Villanova (East), North Carolina (South)
National Champions: Louisville Cardinals
MOP: Terrence Williams, Louisville

Top Sleeper: Stephen F. Austin (mid-major), Purdue (major)
Under the Radar: Butler (mid-major), West Virginia (major)
Underrated: Cleveland State (mid-major), Texas (major)
Overrated: VCU (mid-major...ouch), Kansas (major)

1st -Round Upset I Love: Stephen F. Austin (I don't love it. Believe me. Syracuse is 0-2 in opening round games after reaching or winning the Big East Tournament finals. They lost to #13-seed Vermont and #12-seed Texas A&M. I suspect they will start cold and lose a heartbreaker. However, they'll be a Final Four team next year...if Johnny Flynn remains with the Orange.)
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: Eric Maynor and the upstart Rams of VCU barely get by UCLA, setting them up for a match-up - in Philly - against the Villanova Wildcats. Why? I'd be there. I'd also LOVE to see any scenario with a 16-seed winning. Any of them.
Final Comment: This field is much more open than you think. I'm too Big East heavy; however, I also have Pitt out before the Sweet Sixteen (shocker!) and UCONN out before the Elite Eight (surprise!). Louisville will prove me wrong - yet again - and cut the nets down for Pitino.

Armin
Final Four: G'head...hate me...all the #1s make it this year. I'll be the smart-alec that says it.
National Champions: UNC (Sheesh...What's wrong with me?)
MOP: Someone named Tyler (ok...I officially hate myself)

Top Sleeper: Arizona (gotta pick my "alma mater")
Under the Radar: Utah State (that thug they got playing center is a BEAST)
Underrated: Tie...Northern Iowa & Western Kentucky
Overrated: Florida State

1st -Round Upset I Love: Arizona over Utah, of course
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: American vs. VCU....go Virginia!!!!
Final Comment: I'm filling out my sheet with teams that have the best looking cheerleaders. No other strategy has ever helped me do well in my tourney pools...figure I should implement this strategerie. ;)

Sum
Final Four: Louisville (Midwest), Missouri (West), Pitt (East), North Carolina (South)
National Champions: Pitt (over Louisville)
MOP: DeJuan Blair, Pitt

Top Sleeper: West Virginia (major), Western Kentucky (mid-major)
Under the Radar: Clemson (major, Butler (mid-major)
Underrated: Purdue (major), American (mid-major)
Overrated: Oklahoma (major), VCU (mid-major)

1st -Round Upset I Love: Western Kentucky over Illinois. Like Paymon mentioned, Frazier is not at 100% even if he does play, and that will hurt the Illini, especially against a strong 12-seed in Western Kentucky. And yes ... I do think they can repeat their Sweet 16 appearance of last year.
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: UNC vs Butler, especially if Ty Lawson isn't back. Butler is an extremely solid squad that got jobbed (in my opinion) with the 9-seed. I think Butler's defense will give Hansbrough and Co. lots of trouble before finally giving way to the 'Heels in the last 5 minutes of the game.
Final Comment: The tourney is the Big East's to lose. Aside from 2-3 upsets (I don't count 9's beating 8's as an upset), I think the first round will hold true to form. Unfortunately, a lot of deserving mid-majors were excluded from this tournament (read: Creighton and St. Mary's) and saw their rightful spots go to undeserving majors (read: Arizona and Wisconsin). Good to know that Fudgy Packer still has his unannounced seat on the Selection Committee.

Yeah ... you know can't wait to see him at this job instead either. (Credit Tiricosuave.com)

Thanks for listening to us ... now make sure you DON'T bet your savings on our picks (though it's safer than investing in Citi...). Got an opinion? Want to tell us how wrong we are? Chime in below!

Upsets…of the Non #3 Seed Variety

News flash! Picking #3 seed Xavier to go to the Elite Eight is NOT an upset or Cinderella story. Neither is picking a 10 over a 7. I’m not even sure the majority of the 6s are that much better than 11s (St. Joe’s is favored on the Vegas line over Oklahoma, for example).

Fear not though…sanctity for your last-second bracket analysis can be found here. We aren’t linking trivial national brackets, aren’t servicing the teams we love (trust me, I’m not!), or promoting picks we’ve had all season. We’re even willing to tackle some of the hardest teams to analyze: Michigan State, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Oregon and Arizona.

Pay and I are offering up a sleeper in each region. We may or may not be picking them outright. However, we’ve locked in on their potential to make deep runs (ala, the second weekend) into March Madness. In the very least, they may pull a 2007 VCU-esque run (shameless plug, I know).

Clement’s Sleepers

East Region
#7 seed Butler
-Wait, didn’t we have them rated as a #5 seed, thus no sleeper? While the committee obviously couldn’t find the wins to place the Bulldogs where we might have speculated, they’re a lethal #7 seed. Sweet Sixteen visitors last season, they return with the same five starters, and now, a chip on their shoulder. Unfortunately, USA (i.e. South Alabama) is a brutal #10 seed (in Birmingham, no less); however, if they can survive the lethal 7-10 matchup, Butler has enough athleticism and outside shooting to keep up with #2 seed Tennessee. Past that, the Bulldogs will be playing with company money and the passion to be the next Gonzaga/Kent State into the Elite Eight.

Midwest Region
#10 seed Davidson
-I could rant and rave about how they almost beat North Carolina early in the season, but then I’d be the national media. Instead, I’ll plug what really matters: Davidson finished 23-0 in the Southern Conference, played UNC/UCLA/Duke to closer-than-expected outcomes, and are home to the son of Virginia Tech’s most renowned basketball alum, Dell Curry: Stephen Curry. Gonzaga, meanwhile, will be traveling all the way from Spokane, Washington to a gym that is a stone’s throw from Davidson’s campus (well, maybe two throws). Look out in the Midwest, Davidson is also loving the NC locations.

South Region
#8 seed Mississippi State
-The majority of America has either the #1 seeds all in the Elite Eight or all in the Final Four (note: the latter has NEVER happened). If you’re looking for a legit #8/#9 upset of a #1, Memphis is your best bet. They’re nightmarish from the free-throw line, fall in love way too quickly with the three and have been shown in tournament’s past that they can run with anyone. But, can they bang and grind it out with anyone? Enter the Bulldogs, classic underachievers in the SEC Tournament (who wasn’t outside of Georgia though?), who possess everything needed to knock off the Tigers: a star player with a chip on his shoulder (Jamont Gordon), solid interior rebounding, and a coach in Rick Stansbury that is on the rise. While Memphis could run them out of the gym before the under-8 timeout in the first half, the Bulldogs might bust open a few brackets…except yours.

West Region
#12 seed Western Kentucky
-Could I honestly have a column about upsets WITHOUT mentioning a #12 seed? The answer is: no. While I personally see big things potentially for “The Drake”, the Hilltoppers (the automatic qualifier out of the Sun Belt) and NBA-ready star Courtney Lee have a tournament pedigree in their past and the ability to win the big game. Their #5 seed opponent, Drake, has a TON to prove and their #4 seed and likely opponent in Round 2 (should they progress), UConn, is extremely unpredictable in my opinion. Need something else to sway you? They’ve won 17 of 18, including that aforementioned Sun Belt Tournament. Sign me up…maybe.

Pay’s taking over later in the day…

Pay's Sleepers

East Region
None
- Because Indiana cannot truly hold "sleeper" status since they were ranked all season and were regularly in the public eye, I am going with no sleepers. No Mason? No Winthrop? Nope. Both are established mid-majors and absolutely no one is sleeping on them. South Alabama? Considering they play in Birmingham for their first games (where's Jim Calhoun to raise a stink?) and three SEC teams in close games, no one is sleeping on the Jaguars either. St. Joe's? Nope.

Midwest Region
# 8 seed UNLV
- Though I am picking Kent State to defeat UNLV, the Runnin' Rebels have drawn ire for receiving an undeserved #8 seed (best win: BYU twice at home) and that's just enough for UNLV, who were expected to have a rebuilding year, but have a Final Four coach in Lon Kruger and outstanding ball handlers in Curtis Terry and Wink Adams. Run-on sentences aside, teams that can handle the ball effectively have a puncher's chance against the Jayhawks.

South Region
#7 seed Miami-FL
- Considered Clement's team most likely not to make it out of the first round, the 'Canes ended the season on a sour note. Picked to go 12th in the ACC, Miami is paced by guards Jack McClinton and James Dews, yet have the bench to go 10-deep. With the sheer number of bodies who can contribute, Miami, depending on which team comes to the game, has the juice to defeat elite teams (defeated Duke in February). Once again, the factor of being largely overlooked by the national media and other coaches weighs heavily in Miami's favor. That said, St. Mary's is one tough customer with a balanced attack.

West Region
#6 seed Purdue
- Last season, Purdue surprised many by not only being competitive, but earning an at-large bid and making the Round of 32 prior to bowing out against eventual champions, Florida. This season, Purdue have exceeded expectations with a talented, young core of players that have alternated between brilliance and mediocrity. With athleticism, leadership and depth, the Boilermakers have the tools to overcome Baylor, Xavier and even Duke. If they do this, then people other than Brent Musburger will never forget who Robbie Hummel is.

PHSports’ 5 Sleepers and 5 Busts for the 2007 NFL Fantasy Season

Each year dozens of sports websites offer their lists of busts and sleepers for the fantasy football season. These lists are entirely speculative and based on mostly nothing but gut feelings. Having now degraded the uncertain nature of predicting sleepers and busts, the staff at PHSports has decided to jump aboard the ship and offer what its own crystal ball revealed for the 2007 fantasy football season.

SLEEPERS

1. LaMont Jordan (RB, Oakland Raiders)

Yes, I can sense the double take followed by the rubbing of the eyes you all just experienced. A Raider? As a sleeper? Well, after last season this team, and Jordan, has nowhere to go but up. Jordan’s sub-par 2006 lays the groundwork for an improved season. Furthermore, Dominic Rhodes’ 4-game suspension to start the season is the ultimate early Christmas present for Jordan, who has two years under his belt with his Oakland teammates. That camaraderie, along with Lane Kiffin’s new system, will propel Jordan to be a solid #3 back.

2. Greg Jennings (WR, Green Bay Packers)

This second-year wide-out from the frozen tundra goes against the traditional notion that wide receivers don’t usually pan out until their third season in the league. Now, we aren’t saying that Jennings will provide Ocho-Cinco type stats to your depleted fantasy roster, but he did have 45 receptions for 632 yards last season. Since then, the Packers have dropped veteran WR Robert Ferguson, and Jennings has claimed the 2^nd starting WR spot opposite Donald Driver. With Brett Favre’s arm likely being the key to the Packers’ offensive scheme again this season, look for Jennings to get at least 90-100 looks from the aging QB. NOTE: since the drafting of this article, Packers' #1 WR Donald Driver was carted off the field with an undisclosed injury. Keep an eye out on this situation since it could boost Jennings’ status as a sleeper.

3. Vincent Jackson (WR, San Diego Chargers)

Now, here is a WR entering that supposedly grand third season, and one who PHSports thinks will put up the numbers in 2007. Admittedly, Jackson had a statistically forgettable 2006 season. His 27 catches for 453 yards aren’t noteworthy, but the 6 touchdown catches are nothing to sneeze at. 2007 should see Jackson’s totals rise, even though he is still competing with the arguably the league’s best TE in Antonio Gates. The key to Jackson’s stats this season is the arrival of Norv Turner. Though he’s never amounted to much of anything as a head coach, Turner has played a key part in improving the passing offense of his past teams, and will do the same for the Chargers.

4. Brandon Jackson (RB, Green Bay Packers)

Green Bay fans must be loving us right now. (There’d better be a rise in hits from Wisconsinafter this article). The second Jackson of this list has a great opportunity ahead of him at the side of Brett Favre. Thanks to the injury to Vernand Morency, who still claims the #1 spot on the Packers’ depth chart, Brandon Jackson has seen and will continue to see most of the touches with the first string offense. Jackson has shown promise in the preseason, so the job appears to be his to keep. Though we don’t expect magical numbers from the rookie out of Nebraska, he will produce good numbers. This is probably the biggest “reach” of our sleeper picks.

5. Alex Smith (QB, San Francisco 49ers)

The lone quarterback on our sleeper list could very well have the breakout season of 2007. Although he no longer has QB guru Norv Turner to guide him, Alex Smith is working with a very solid team that experienced some quality success last season. Furthermore, Frank Gore will help to alleviate the pressure from the young quarterback. The 49ers have also added some depth to the receiving core, adding Ashley Lelie and Darrell Jackson in the off-season, not to mention the help he’ll get from a healthy Vernon Davis. Don’t be surprised if Alex Smith is a top 10 fantasy QB by the end of the season.

BUSTS

1. Shaun Alexander (RB, Seattle Seahawks)

It pains us to put this former TD and rushing champion at the top of this list, but there are far too many questions surrounding his injured foot and his ability to bounce back. Alexander only played in 10 games last season, and only managed 3.6 yards per carry (ypc), a far cry from the 4.8 ypc in 2004 and and 5.1 ypc in 2005. He’s also no spring chicken, turning 30 before the regular season starts, so we have to wonder whether he has enough youthful energy left in him to return to his glory years or if he’s on course to become the next Marshall Faulk.

2. Randy Moss (WR, New England Patriots)

So much hype and so many expectations can only lead to disappointment, especially considering that Randy hasn’t even practiced with the team since early August. People tend to overreact when a quality wide receiver switches teams, assuming that the mere pairing of a quality wideout with a team’s quarterback will lead to sheer magic. Unfortunately, those people are forgetting Peerless Price to Atlanta, Muhsin Muhammad to Chicago, oh and Randy Moss himself to Oakland. Sure, Randy could pull a Donté Stallworth and provide immediate help to his new team, but given his lack of practice time with Tom Brady, we wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t finish in the top 2 on his team in receptions.

3. Tom Brady (QB, New England Patriots)

When a team has basically been crowned the Super Bowl champion by a solid portion of the media during the off-season, it’s usually been a bad sign of things to come (see Washington Redskins under Daniel Snyder). The Patriots went out and signed about 400 new wide receivers for their GQ QB after the AFC Championship loss to the Colts last year. Unfortunately for Papa Brady, this has fans expecting a 5,000 yard season with 30+ TD passes (finishing second only to Jon Kitna’s self-projection of 50 TD tosses). Given those over-reaching expectations, Brady’s got fantasy bust written all over him. He may still have an okay fantasy season, especially if he and his new wideouts can get on the same page despite injuries. However, he won’t be worth the 2^nd or 3^rd round selection that will be used on him in most leagues.

4. Marc Bulger (QB, St. Louis Rams)

What a difference a signature makes. Before Bulger signed his new contract extension a few weeks ago, some of the staff here at PHSports had him pegged for a sure-fire sleeper pick. Bulger was poised to have a “contract year” to guarantee himself the big bucks from the Rams or some other team after the 2007 season. But then, it happened. The Rams caved and gave him a 6-year, $65 million extension … so now he’s settled financially and ready to underachieve.

5. Clinton Portis (RB, Washington Redskins)

The man of many disguises has become way too injury prone very early in his career. The injuries coupled with a 1,000-yard backup RB in Ladell Betts who proved his worth last season, make Portis a very risky selection in any fantasy draft. He’s only played a full season once in his three years as a Redskin and he’s seen zero action this preseason. Even if he is fully healthy by the start of the season, Portis will only be getting about 60-65% of the touches after Betts’ solid 2006 campaign, thus limiting his fantasy production.