Showing posts with label data trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label data trends. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Trend Data Trumps Big East Passion

Question: Should the Big East remain the 3rd-rated conference according to the RPI, what percentage of their teams will they advance? What does the trend data suggest?

YearConferenceFraction of ParticipantsPercentage (%)Seed Numbers
2007PAC-106/1060.02,3,3,5,8,11
2006ACC4/1233.31,3,4,10
2005Big XII6/1250.02,3,3,6,8,9
2004Big East6/1442.93,5,5,6,7,8
2003ACC4/944.42,3,6,9

Total Percentage: 26/57 (44.1%)

As evidenced by the trend data, the last two years have been statistical anomalies and deviate from the five-year average by more than 10 percent. Given this data, it would be reasonable to posit that the #3 conference (currently, The Big East) should gain approximately seven bids. Projections above eight bids or below six bids would be considered statistical outliers.

As for seeding, #11 is the lowest seeding to be gained over this five-year period (Stanford, 2007). Perhaps, the Big East seedings (3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 13) from the January 21 NCAA Tournament Projections may have been harsh. Nevertheless, the allocation percentage (50.0%) is more generous than the five-year average of 44.1%.