Friday, February 05, 2010

Big East Bubble - You Make The Call

Currently, the Big East has five teams that are in great position to make the tournament. They include Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pittsburgh.

Arguably, there are six more teams that are vying for 2 to 3 additional at-large bids. They include Louisville, Notre Dame, South Florida, Marquette, Cincinnati and UConn.

Using data from,, and remaining schedules, PHSports made game-by-game predictions, leading to a determination of NCAA Tournament status. Additional Big East tournament scenarios are also considered.

So, who do you think will make the NCAA Tournament among these Big East teams? What seed line do you see them falling?

Louisville (14-8, 5-4)
RPI: 40
Pomeroy Rank: 25
Remaining Schedule: v. Rutgers, @ St. John's, @ Syracuse, v. Notre Dame, @ DePaul, v. Georgetown, @ UConn, @ Marquette, v. Syracuse Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-W-L-W-W-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
Can the Cards lose their first game and still punch their ticket? If Louisville loses 3 in a row heading into the Garden, then a 4th may tip them over the edge. Unless they get blown away, the Cards will be in.

Notre Dame (16-7, 5-5)
RPI: 62
Pomeroy Rank: 77
Remaining Schedule: v. South Florida, @ Seton Hall, v. St. John's, @ Louisville, v. Pittsburgh, @ Georgetown, v. UConn, @ Marquette Predicted Record: 20-11 (9-9)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-12 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-L-W-L-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (8-10)
How far must the Irish go at MSG? A run to the finals, and perhaps winning it because of their poor OOC schedule

South Florida (15-7, 5-5)
RPI: 48
Pomeroy Rank: 66
Remaining Schedule: @ Notre Dame, @ Marquette, v. Cincinnati, v. St. John's, @ Villanova, v. Providence, @ DePaul, v. UConn Predicted Record: 20-10 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-11 (9-9)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: L-L-L-W-L-W-W-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 18-12 (8-10)
If the Bulls go 9-9 or better, will they be in with a pre-round win? Honestly, it depends on how the teams that USF beat perform the rest of the way. If they finish 10-10, they are in.

Marquette (14-8, 5-5)
RPI: 65
Pomeroy Rank: 18
Remaining Schedule: @ Providence, v. South Florida, v. Pitt, @ Cincinnati, @ St. John's, @ Seton Hall, v. Louisville, v. Notre Dame Predicted Record: 19-11 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 20-10 (11-7)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-W-L-L-W-L-W-W
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-11 (10-8)
Can Marquette get in with a loss in their first game at the Garden? Yes.

Cincinnati (14-8, 5-5)
RPI: 50
Pomeroy Rank: 69
Remaining Schedule: v. Syracuse, @ UConn, @ South Florida, v. Marquette, v. DePaul, @ West Virginia, v. Villanova, @ Georgetown Predicted Record: 16-14 (7-11)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 17-13 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: L-L-W-W-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 17-13 (8-10)
How far must Cincinnati go to be among the last four teams in? Semifinals of the Big East Tournament

UConn (13-9, 3-6)
RPI: 52
Pomeroy Rank: 47
Remaining Schedule: v. DePaul, @ Syracuse, v. Cincinnati, @ Villanova, @ Rutgers, v. West Virginia, v. Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ South Florida Predicted Record: 18-13 (8-10)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 18-13 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-L-W-L-W-L-W-W-W
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (9-9)
What if UConn finishes 8-10 in conference? How many wins do they need in the Big East Tournament? 1 or 2, depending on how the rest of the field shapes up


Anonymous said...

Nice post. I think South Florida has a better shot than UConn to get to 9 (probably 10) wins in the conference. Other than that, I totally agree.

Why do the Bulls have more variability? Shouldn't the win at Georgetown be enough to get them over the hump?

Paymon said...

In a season-ends-today format, the Bulls should be in by a whisker.

The Bulls have more variability, because it is tough to predict how the teams (UVa especially, then Pitt and Georgetown) they've beaten will perform from now until March.