The Future’s For Discovering: Big East Bubble Breakdown and Pre-MSG Forecasting

To date, a conservative estimate posits that no less than five Big East teams have punched their ticket for March Madness and no more than five teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at Madison Square Garden. That leaves a whopping six teams vying for additional at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions. For that reason, I underlined two projected upsets that may be controversial.

IN: UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova
OUT: Seton Hall, St. John’s, South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul
NOT YET IN: Providence, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Providence 17-11 (9-7)
Key Wins: v. Pittsburgh, v. Syracuse, Cincinnati (2x), Rhode Island
Remaining Games: @ Rutgers (W), @ Villanova (L)
Projected Record: 18-12 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-4

Syracuse 20-8 (8-7)
Key Wins: Florida (N), Kansas (SA), @ Memphis, v. Notre Dame, v. West Virginia, Georgetown (S)
Remaining Games: v. Cincinnati (W), v. Rutgers (W), @ Marquette (L)
Projected Record: 22-9 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

West Virginia 19-9 (8-7)
Key Wins: v. Villanova, @ Ohio State, @ Georgetown, v. Providence, v. Notre Dame
Remaining Games: @ South Florida (W), v. DePaul (W), v. Louisville (W)
Projected Record: 22-9 (11-7)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Cincinnati 18-10 (8-7)
Key Wins: Georgetown (2x), v. West Virginia, v. Notre Dame, @UNLV, v. UAB
Remaining Games: @ Syracuse (L), @ South Florida (W), v. Seton Hall (W)
Projected Record: 20-11 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

Notre Dame 16-12 (7-9)
Key Wins: Texas (N), Louisville (S), Georgetown, @ Providence
Remaining Games: v. Villanova (W), v. St. John’s (W)
Projected Record: 18-12 (9-9)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Georgetown 15-12 (6-10)
Key Wins: @ UConn, v. Memphis, @ Villanova, Syracuse (S), v. Providence, Maryland (N)
Remaining Games: @ St. John’s (W), v. DePaul (W)
Projected Record: 17-12 (8-10)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 2-4

As a result of this exercise, West Virginia finishes alone in 6^th place. Three teams tie for a 10-8 regular season mark. If the tie-breaker of choice is each team’s record against the other three, here is how it would break down.

Providence: 3-0 (7^th seed)
Syracuse: 1-1 (8^th seed)
Cincinnati: 0-3 (9^th seed)
Notre Dame earns the 10^th seed and Georgetown takes the 11^th.

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

West Virginia: Absolutely nothing (if they defeat Louisville in the season finale)
Providence: Win at least 1 game (win would have to be against Notre Dame) and advance to quarterfinals
Syracuse: Nothing (barring no costly injuries)
Cincinnati: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Syracuse) and advance to quarterfinals
Notre Dame: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Providence) and advance to quarterfinals
Georgetown: Win 1 game; 2nd win (would be versus West Virginia) would lock up a certain bid with road/neutral wins against UConn, Villanova, West Virginia and Maryland.

Friday FourCast: Bubble Talk Continues...

The FourCast, barely two days old in its college basketball format, is already undergoing several radical changes.

First off, we’re going to target the eight best matchups of the day (because 4 +4 is 8!). Fortunately for your eyes, we’re only giving each game ONE sentence.

We’re also projecting four thoughts from the past day (in this case, Thursday). Finally, I’m asking our “Bracket expert” Paymon (who I assure you won’t change his picks at 5:52pm Sunday evening) four questions that are clawing me deep into my bone marrow.

Yes, I said bone marrow.

Some of us "experts" need to take quantum physics to explain how VCU and the "Dagger" will return to the tourney in 2008.
Credit: NY Times.com

FourCast Four Thoughts:

1) West Virginia not only pushed itself into “lock” status, but might start climbing up the big board with its impressive victory over (my pick to cut down the nets in MSG) the UCONN Huskies. Joe Alexander poured in 34 and the Mountaineers might have exposed UCONN’s questionable perimeter defense.

2) Houston said bye-bye to a desperately-needed Conference USA tourney run with a rather embarrassing loss to UTEP. Does this affect a certain Richmond-based team who needs Houston to look as good (but not too good)?

3) Apparently, UCLA doesn’t need all the calls. Often, teams like this can be discounted or even swept under the radar. What appears clear is that UCLA should earn the West’s #1 seed and even if they do not, they may be just as dangerous as they were last as the #2 seed out of their preferred region.

4) Teams who are livin’ on a bubble prayer (hello VCU!) better hope that teams like New Mexico, UNLV and Texas A&M are bit by the upset bug. Of course, that’s highly unlikely. HIGHLY.

FourCast Four Questions:
1) How damaging was Baylor’s 2-overtime loss to (12-19) Colorado?

It’s damaging enough to place them firmly onto the bubble, rather than near “lock” status. I think their early season neutral court wins will get them over the hump. I’ll take 9 wins in a top 3 conference and a neutral court victory over ‘Gody over most of the bubble boys any day.

2) Is Villanova truly “in” with their victory over Syracuse? Or was their drubbing from Georgetown (combined with a 3-6 record against the RPI Top 50 and several BAD losses – DePaul & Rutgers notably) enough to put them as one of the last four teams out?

Anyone familiar with Villanova knows exactly how aggravating it is to follow the team. Because of the criteria set before you, Villanova will be among the teams that Clement and I will be discussing at length on Sunday afternoon.

3) Arizona State’s standing has been far more pessimistic in brackets outside of yours. How damaging was their 4-point loss to OJ Mayo and the Trojans?

According to the Bracket Matrix, 41 of 53 bracket projectionists have Arizona State in the field of 65, but the average seed is 11. On their loss, I didn’t see it as damaging at all, except for it meaning that Arizona State has a losing conference record and an ugly RPI. They played tough defense against a stout USC team and fell short of forcing overtime, no thanks to PAC-10 officials.

4) Why is everyone so in love as of late with New Mexico?

I’ve been absent from this love party for New Mexico. There’s this bizarre belief that the Mountain West will be a two-bid conference, even if BYU wins the conference tournament. The 24 wins are impressive, but they are due in large part to fattening up on weak teams and at home. Of their 31 games, the Lobos played 18 on their home court. Their best win outside of Albuquerque was at San Diego State.

8 Games to Watch on Friday (or as WJFK’s Don & Mike say…Fri-dee!):

Michigan vs. Wisconsin
-Alright UM fans, this is your shot to make a 9-21 season end on as high a note as possible for a 9-21 team.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State
-A #1 seed for Texas is still far from out of the question.

Miami (FL) vs. Virginia Tech
-Hokie fans were crying to me how much they wanted to avoid the ‘Canes. Tough break.

Xavier vs. St. Joseph’s
-The Red Hawks need this win if they want to keep their legit tourney hopes alive.

Georgetown vs. West Virginia

A) Who underrated Georgetown a month ago (ME!)

B) Who underrated WVU’s 11-win conference performance (Pay!)

Temple vs. UMass Charlotte
-With UMASS coughing up an 18-point lead, will Pay’s brilliance of sticking with Temple be rewarded with an A-10 Championship Game birth?

USC vs. UCLA
-This should clinch a #1 seed, in my opinion, for UCLA…if they win, of course.

Washington State vs. Stanford
-Forget this matchup, what about the Thursday night losers and their bubble fates (Arizona does seem safer than Oregon, right?)?

Hope you enjoyed the new format! It’s gonna be around for another 12 hours or so…

2008 NCAA Projections - March 12, 2008

Last night, the committee arrived in Indianapolis. Tomorrow, they will submit their list of “lock teams”. As of the end of play on Tuesday night, we estimate that the teams listed in seed lines #1-7 are considered to be “locks” for the NCAA Tournament. While I love what Kentucky has done, they are truly one injury away from being on the outside looking in despite an impressive 12-4 record in the SEC and having crushed the subjective eye test since the Vanderbilt debacle.

That leaves 18 bids for the taking. What does that mean? In brief, the next four days of basketball will go a long way in determining who is in and out (Sunday is not a big moving day for tournament seedings, unless your name is Joe Lunardi and the clock has just struck 5:50pm ET). In other words, no team beyond Mississippi State excluding automatic bids are safe.

Here are Paymon’s early thoughts …

• If teams are considered by team and not WCC #3, it will be hard to unseat St. Mary’s.
• Davidson deserves a massive jump in the seedings because they took care of business. Because some bubble teams will win unexpectedly, they will likely become a #10 seed.
• The fate of VCU and South Alabama from here on out may be determined by their opponents who have games yet to play. The decider is multifactorial. First, VCU won its conference by 3 games. Second, they won three neutral/away games in non-conference play.
• I’m having a difficult time understanding why Arizona State is out of Joe Lunardi’s bracket. They earned the #5 seed in the nation’s best conference; a conference which uses a round-robin scheduling mechanism. In doing so, they defeated the conference’s #2, #4, #6 and #7 (sweep) teams in addition to the A-14’s #1 team. In a field with such a dearth of good wins, the Sun Devils don’t have enough bad losses to counteract their good wins.
• If Florida and Ole Miss BOTH make the SEC semifinals, it will be a play-in/elimination game.
• While results are important, scorelines on the neutral court play a role as well. If a team such as Ohio State loses badly against Michigan State, then their recent home resume-padders are diluted. This may result in an invitation to the Not Important Tournament.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, which is highlighted by over ten hours of opening round coverage of the Big East Tournament, Clement tackles four games that are on his mind. To no one’s surprise who reads this blog religiously, we start with …

1) Big East Tournament: Syracuse vs. Villanova
-Far from fans of South Alabama and Gonzaga after Monday Night, the Orange and the Wildcats both sit at 9-9 in the Big East. Both own a win on the other’s homecourt, both have underachieved quite a bit this season and both are in just about every media pundits “last four out”. This game obviously appears to be an elimination game. The loser stands little to no chance of securing anything but a 2-seed in the NIT. In fact, the winner may simply be the Big East team first left out. A win over Georgetown would be vital for either to stake a truly legitimate claim. The problem is: if all these at-large bids keep closing up, is a semi-final appearance truly enough for either Big East .500 squad?

2) Big East Tournament Opening Round: West Virginia vs. Providence
-A home win against Pitt this past week almost assuredly locked the Mountaineers into the last “safe bid” in the Big East. Right? Not so fast, especially when you consider how strong the media has been pushing them onto the bubble and their somewhat hidden #5 seed in the Big East Tournament. Not to mention that 10+-win in the Big East is nice, but not as nice considering they now play an 18 game schedule (thank you, Doug Gottlieb). Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. If WVU loses, and perhaps Syracuse, Villanova or a surprise team makes a Big East run, could WVU be entrenched in bubble fever come 6pm on Sunday night? My inside sources tell me yes (thank you, Peter Vecsey).

3) Pac-10 Tournament Opening Round: Arizona vs. Oregon State
-Typically, there wouldn’t be any consideration given to a team as terrible as the Beavers this season. However, with their loss to Oregon this past Saturday night, #2 SOS Wildcats (come on, that’s their motto these days), opened the door for potentially two Pac-10 teams with losing conference records getting in (it’s never happened to one Pac-10 team before). The one thing Arizona can do to help itself most is crush OSU and take out the “are-they-struggling” Cardinal. The worst: lose to Oregon State and any SOS may have to go straight out the window.

4) A-10 Tournament Opening Round: Charlotte vs. Rhode Island
-In A-10 play, Xavier is easily a sure-fire tournament team. However, the rest of the conference appears much murkier than it did only six weeks ago. In fact, this matchup of #6 Charlotte vs. #11 Rhode Island may lead to an interesting quarterfinal matchup against #3 UMass. The Minutemen appear the safest bet to acquire an at-large bid, for now. In truth, eyes will be focused intently on potential upsets that could prevent a tricky A-10 final four: Xavier/St. Joe’s & UMass/Temple could. A nightmarish scenario unfolds if Dayton upsets top-seed Xavier in the quarterfinals. Don’t even get me started on that…

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon)
6: Washington State, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Marquette
7: Clemson, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, BYU, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL
9: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Davidson (Southern), Arkansas
10: Baylor, Arizona, UNLV (MWC), St. Mary’s
11: Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia, Illinois State
12: Ohio State, Temple, VCU, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), San Diego (WCC), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Illinois State, Ohio State, Temple, VCU
Last Four Out: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, UMass
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Dayton, UAB, Ole Miss
On The Radar: Maryland, New Mexico, Florida

IN: Western Kentucky, San Diego, VCU
OUT: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 5/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Colonial: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

2008 NCAA Projections - March 10, 2008

Christmas: Easily one of Philly's finest

Credit: Fans Only

(Editor's Note: This bracket does not reflect the result of the St. Mary's - San Diego game)

Last week, we held off on putting UNC as the #1 overall seed because they lacked that signature win. On Saturday, they got that win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, spoiling senior night for Duke, and for DaMarcus Nelson in particular. As for UCLA, they remained a #1 seed despite having two games which they probably should have lost. As a result, the gap between overall #4 and #5 teams on the big board has tightened.

In the Big East, Georgetown overcame Louisville to win the Big East regular season championship. Though Clement has a feeling that UConn may take the spoils at MSG, we project that the Hoya faithful will tell us exactly who they are when the clock shows three zeroes.

Moving to the fourth seed line, though we include MVC champ Drake, we really see them as a #5 seed; however, everyone else lost a game that they really should not have. On the seventh seed line, Marquette is a squad that can jump leaps and bounds with a superb showing at MSG, but we just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, let’s take a detour to the bubble.

- We have Ohio State as a #10 seed. Are they in? Not quite yet. Why are they so high? Perhaps, it’s because the Selection Committee loves to overrate quality March victories. This seeding may be one that we may need to review after their game against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.

- In deciding upon either Baylor or West Virginia for the final #10 seed, Baylor’s ability to the Big East #3 on a neutral court was more valuable than any single win that the Mountaineers had.

- In the PAC 10, we like seven teams as of right now. If Oregon loses by double digits against Washington State, then they will likely be out of the equation. Though Arizona finished 8-10 in conference, their #2 SOS nationally and a season sweep of the Cougars makes them more than viable.

- In the conference otherwise known as the A-14, we see Temple having the best opportunity to be the team that faces (and loses to) Xavier in the final. With their huge win against Xavier, St. Joseph’s claims the 34th at-large bid, outlasting VCU who lost a shocker to William & Mary. Of course, a sweep over UMass and a blowout win over Villanova never hurt. Despite winning both games this week, Dayton is now #8 seed, meaning that if they defeat St. Louis in the 1st round, they will face Xavier in the quarterfinals. Neither Clement nor myself felt brave enough to make that prediction regardless of whether Chris Wright plays.

- As stated for weeks, we expect UNLV to win the Mountain West Tournament on their home court. In doing that, we see them defeating both BYU and New Mexico, which shall help their resume.

- In the ACC, an expected loss for Virginia Tech and an unexpected one for Maryland (although Clement would have never put money on that game) meant doom and 4 seeds for now.

- Lastly, who is the best candidate to be this year’s Arkansas? That would be Ole Miss, who won its last three conference games to finish 7-9. Meanwhile, they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a rarity. Additionally, they can avoid Tennessee until the finals.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Indiana, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Pittsburgh
7: Marquette, Clemson, Kansas State, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, BYU, Kent State (MAC)
9: Miami-FL, Arizona State, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Oklahoma
10: Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor, West Virginia
11: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), UNLV (MWC), Illinois State
12: Texas A&M, Villanova, Temple, Oregon
13: St. Joseph’s, George Mason (CAA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: VCU, UMass, Syracuse, UAB
Next Four Out: Dayton, Maryland, Florida, Ole Miss

IN: Ohio State, Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Sacred Heart
OUT: VCU, Maryland, UMass, Southern Illinois, Dayton, Florida, Cal State Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Seeding Summary(Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 7/10
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big East: 7/16
ACC: 4/12
Big Ten: 5/11

West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
A-10: 3/14

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

Thursday's Headlines - Spot On

* Late last night, Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart received permission from the University of Florida to speak with Billy Donovan about their coaching vacancy. Donovan is scheduled to meet with Florida AD Jeremy Foley today and then plans to vacation in the Dominican Republic, according to ESPN's Andy Katz. ESPN and CBS Sportsline (no, they aren't the only two sports websites I visit) are now reporting that Billy Donovan is staying put and that he will be in talks for an extension at Florida. Now, was I right or was I right? How many hours will it be until we hear about Rick Barnes or Billy Gillispie being asked if they're interested?

This Donovan decision should have little to no bearing on the decisions to be made by Horford, Noah, Brewer, and Green.

* West Virginia is hot on the heels of Kansas State head coach Bob Huggins, who calls the state home and played for the Mountaineers during the mid-1970s. In the eyes of many, Huggins accepting the job is contingent upon whether he will be able to take top recruit Michael Beasley with him.

* Butler has its new coach. Brad Stevens, 30, served as an assistant at Butler for six years under Todd Lickliter and Thad Matta. The Bulldogs return three of its top scorers (AJ Graves, Mike Green, and Pete Campbell) from the squad that made the Sweet 16 and gave eventual national champion Florida its stiffest test.

* Louis Orr is back in the head coaching ranks at Bowling Green. This is the guy who took a worthless Seton Hall team last season to the tournament, albeit in controversial fashion with a very low RPI and 40+ point losses, and proceeded to get whooped by Wichita State. As a reward for his efforts, he got canned.

On the PHSports Docket
* NFL Mock Draft
* NCAA basketball coaching carousel
* NBA Draft early entries

Hopes Dashed and Revived - Clemson and Oregon

On Thursday night, two fading squads who badly needed victories on their home court against Power 16 teams had a dissimilar fate. By the end of the night, hopes were shot in Clemson while they were revitalized in Eugene.

Clemson continued their sharp ACC descent as they lost at home to Duke. While the Tigers and their fans may lament three missed Duke travel calls, one mistaken travel call against them, and a mistaken basket interference call; however, how do you get down by 23 to a team that does not know how to score consistently? Credit the fans at Littlejohn Coliseum for never giving up in the pursuit of a comeback. Also, credit Duke for buckling down on defense whenever the lead got to within two baskets.

Just minutes from halftime, Oregon trailed Washington State by double digits. When losing 6 of 8 games in a cut-throat conference, character is needed to overcome such deficits against quality opponents. Not giving in, the Ducks rallied behind Tajuan Porter to defeat the surging Cougars. Putting things in perspective, Oregon avoided being 8-8 in conference and should be in the tournament given their resume.

Additionally, following up on the Wednesday post, the 3rd best resume belonged to West Virginia, who averages a 9-seed according to a collection of bracket projections at the Comparing the Seeds page (link on the right). The first was Old Dominion and the second was Illinois. Something to think about as we move closer to the final stretch of the regular season.