NCAA Tournament Performance (by conference)

The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has come and gone, and unless you had Wisconsin or a dark horse going far, your bracket is still in decent shape. The preservation of the top seeds only amplifies the quality of matchups that will take place this upcoming weekend starting with Thursday night.

The only major upset of the weekend was UNLV eliminating Wisconsin in Chicago. I was surprised when Washington State forgot how to play perimeter defense against Vanderbilt in what turned out to be a double overtime defeat.

There is no perfect way to gauge conference performance, but what we can do is look at expected and actual numbers from the multi-bid conferences. For the record, it’s not completely scientific, but it does work with the seeds designated by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

Conference	Actual Record	Expected Record	Actual vs. Expected Difference	Actual Sweet 16 teams	Expected Sweet 16 teams	Sweet 16 Difference
ACC	6-6	9-4	-2.5	1	3	-2
SEC	7-2	5-4	+2.0	3	1	+2
Pac-10	7-3	8-3	-0.5	3	3	0
Big Ten	6-5	5-4	0*	1	2	-1
Big East	5-4	7-4	-1.0	2	2	0
Missouri Valley	2-1	2-1	0	1	1	0
Big XII	5-2	6-1	-1.0	2	3	-1
Mountain West	2-1	2-2	+0.5	1	0	+1
Western Athletic	1-2	1-2	0	0	0	0
Atlantic-10	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0
Horizon	2-1	1-2	+1.0	1	0	+1
Colonial	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0

* lower winning percentage for actual record

When staring at these statistics, a few things jump out.

• First, the ACC has done the worst job of “holding” seeds in this tournament. In three games, a member school has lost to a lower seed. In Virginia’s case, many feel that they were generously seeded.

• Second, the SEC (the SEC East, in particular) has been stellar. In my opinion, Tennessee had the good fortune of being in a pod with three overseeded teams. I will never understand an objective argument describing how either Virginia or Long Beach State deserved within one seed line of their given seed. Had Wazzou held onto their double-digit lead against Vanderbilt, we’d be discussing the Pac-10 in this spot.

• Third, … so the Big Ten wasn’t as bad as I thought they were. I stand by my somewhat inflammatory (yet factually based) comments about Illinois. I watched a fair amount during the regular season and preferred to watch the good defensive teams of the Valley instead of the Big Ten save Ohio State and Wisconsin. Like last year, the Big Ten had a lazy Sunday this year.

• Fourth, the end game for the Big East is what we expected after the first weekend – Georgetown and Pittsburgh move on and everyone else going home. What we didn’t expect were all of the close games. While the nation expected VCU to keel over and die after being down 19 in the second half, I was more surprised by the sustained effort of Boston College against Georgetown. The Big East record might have been better had Jerel McNeal and Mike Nardi been healthier, but I don’t believe that a healthy McNeal or Nardi would have altered the number of Big East teams in the Sweet 16.

• Lastly, I, for one, thought a few of the seedings were shrouded in subjectivity. Of course, I can talk for hours about Virginia, who actually played some quality basketball in the tournament - unlike the two weeks leading up to the NCAAs. There’s also UNLV, who we projected as a 4-seed (actual: 7-seed), and then *stunned* Wisconsin. The two that have the committee smiling are Butler and Vanderbilt. Following the method of previous selection committees, many bracketologists placed less value on November victories; however, Butler received a 5-seed, compared to an 8-seed, which was projected by a group of 30 bracketologists. To their defense, they validated the seed and overachieved by defeating a good Old Dominion team (who played a bad game, trust me) and a favored Maryland squad. As for the Commodores, their 5-5 close to the season capped by two non-road defeats to Arkansas had people thinking that they were destined for the doomed 8-seed. As it was, Vanderbilt got a 6-seed, trounced a GW team that was happy to be in the dance and gutted out a thriller against the Cougars.

One thing we do know is that, despite the chatter – mainly by ESPN guys who have more airtime than substantive material to fill it with - there was no George Mason this year. USC (5), Butler (5), Vanderbilt (6), and UNLV (7) are the only non-protected seeds that advanced the round of 16. All in all, this is just one weekend, and much of this story has yet to unfold. That is the beauty of this madness that takes place annually in March and grips us to our sofas for hours on end. By next weekend, 16 will have become 4 and more stories will be etched into our permanent memory. Until the games return in 89 hours, savor the quality of basketball we’ve enjoyed over this past weekend and do your best to resist watching the NIT (that is, unless you have a rooting interest).

Losing My Mind

The last two days are exactly what the mid-majors who couldn't seal feared. Last night, Xavier and Nevada fell in their respective tournaments, allowing for a second seed that may not have existed. At present, this likely puts Stanford and Florida State on the outs. Teams like Old Dominion, Drexel, and Missouri State all had a legitimate shot at earning an at-large bid; however, things have changed in the last 48 hours.

Thought to be amongst the dead, Oklahoma State rose from the ashes to defeat A&M last night. Make no mistake about it, if the Cowboys make the field without winning the automatic bid in the Big XII conference, it will be a travesty. You cannot go 2-8 from February 1st onward and then rediscover form for 3 days only to lose on Sunday to Kansas (even if it's a "good loss"). That's still 5-9 and that's not good enough when you have stronger at-large candidates.

Speaking of the "good loss", I hate that concept during Championship Week. Victories during conference tournaments are already overblown (i.e. overvalued by the committee) as is, so we don't need to pat Kansas State on the rear for losing by six to Kansas on a neutral court. Kansas State will receive heavy consideration, but I feel their resume is not strong enough to garner an at-large bid.

Before I go further, let me extend my congratulatory statement to Arkansas and Stan Heath's short-term job security. They were my last team in the field prior to the SEC tournament and after three more wins, they will be the fifth representative from the SEC.

Meanwhile, in the Big Ten, this is where I'm losing my mind. Indiana's resume looks weaker by the second. The Illini's doesn't look horrible, but 6 of their 11 conference wins are against the bottom three Big Ten squads. They're like the girl who'd receive the "good from far, far from good" label -- but that change with a victory against Wisconsin today. As for the Spartans, they are 3-10 in neutral court and road games, yet they have the 9th-rated SOS nationally and a recent signature win against Wisconsin on their home floor. With respect to Purdue, they are another team who may receive extended consideration due to their grit during two close defeats to Ohio State - it's not something I agree with, but it's something that will happen. Count on it.

But like I said, a lot has changed in the last 48 hours, and as a result, I'm losing my mind. The pieces will continue to fall in place and the story will unfold - just not at the speed that we want it to do so.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 7.1

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place. Additionally, these projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

We are now nine days away from Selection Sunday, and half of the top eight teams have lost already this week. The biggest shake-up at the top was North Carolina’s removal from the land of the #1 seeds. At their expense, Wisconsin nipped Kansas for the final 1-seed. Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s overtime loss to Texas gave us enough to alter the projected winner of the Big 12. In short, A&M (AKA Acie Law IV university) didn’t show their normal defensive vigor, and that’s a very bad sign moving forward.

In the ACC, Maryland completed its season sweep of Duke, and now occupy the final 3-seed – a far-cry from being 3-6 in conference and allegations that Gary Williams had forgotten how to coach. Staying in the ACC, Georgia Tech moved one major step closer to safety, as they defeated North Carolina on Thursday night. Despite being the outright regular season leader, UVa lacks the quality road/neutral court wins to garner a higher seed. The ‘Hoos have a lot to gain next weekend in Tampa.

Although I highly doubt that this will hold, Appalachian St. is the final team in the field. Why? Their resume is better than the other teams. The team currently in the field that has to impress me to stay in is Illinois. The majority of their conference wins are against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State), who are just awful. Their measurables (RPI, SOS) are what keeps them in, but something just doesn’t add up about this team except for their solid team defense.

Picking up steam in the national press is recognition of a possible second bid for the Colonial Athletic Association. This is not news to PHSports, as we have projected two bids for the conference since February 12. Narcissism aside, if VCU and Drexel meet in the semifinals, many in the know are now considering this game on Sunday to be worth an at-large bid.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	Wisconsin	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	North Carolina	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Maryland	Memphis	Pittsburgh	Southern Illinois
4	Oregon	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt
5	UNLV	Duke	Tennessee	Virginia
6	Nevada	Kentucky	Arizona	Texas
7	Louisville	Marquette	BYU	Indiana
8	Boston College	Michigan St.	Stanford	Texas Tech
9	Xavier	Notre Dame	Butler	Villanova
10	USC	Creighton	Georgia Tech	Air Force
11	Missouri St.	Illinois	Old Dominion	Winthrop
12	Syracuse	Drexel	Appalachian St.	Gonzaga
13	Georgia	Holy Cross	Akron	Davidson
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Sam Houston St.	Marist	E. Tennessee St.	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Austin Peay	Delaware St.

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, Wisconsin
2s: Kansas, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Maryland
4s: Oregon, Virginia Tech, Washington St., Vanderbilt
5s: Virginia, Tennessee, Duke, UNLV
6s: Nevada, Kentucky, Texas, Arizona
7s: Marquette, BYU, Indiana, Louisville
8s: Boston College, Stanford, Michigan St., Texas Tech
9s: USC, Georgia Tech, Villanova, Butler (USC and Georgia Tech were placed on the 10^th seed line due to conflict)
10s: Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, Air Force (Notre Dame and Xavier are placed on the 9^th seed line)
11s: Winthrop, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Missouri St. (Syracuse was placed on the 12^th seed line due to conflict)
12s: Illinois, Drexel, Gonzaga, Georgia (Illinois was placed on the 11^th seed line and Georgia was placed on the 13^th seed line due to conflicts)
13s: Appalachian St., Davidson, Holy Cross, Akron (Appalachian St. was placed on the 12^th line due to Georgia’s conflict)
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Marist, Sam Houston St., E. Tennessee St.
16s: Austin Peay, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Appalachian St.
Out: Kansas St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Drexel, Georgia, Appalachian St.
Last Four Out: Alabama, Purdue, Oklahoma St. UMass
Next Four Out: Bradley, VCU, Utah St., Florida St.

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Southern: 2

Unbalanced Scheduling & How It Affects Bubble Teams

With conference seasons coming to a close and many people joining the college basketball universe for this next month only, I feel it is necessary to tackle the growing issue of unbalanced scheduling as it relates to five BCS conferences (Pac-10 has balanced scheduling). We'll be looking at three of the most pronounced cases of optical illusions amongst the bubble teams while also taking a look at one team whose intra-conference schedule supercedes its unassuming conference record.

Optical Illusions

Kansas St. (20-9, 9-5 Big XII): In most years, having 20 wins and 9 in conference with two to play puts you in great position for an upper seed. Not so. Among their 9 conference wins, only one (@ Texas) is against a team in the RPI Top 50. Their neutral court triumph over USC is barely holding up a nearly hollow resume. The Wildcats will need to win at least two more games to create some separation between them and other bubble teams.

Illinois (21-9, 9-6 Big Ten): Illinois may very well be the most fraudulent 9-6 team in Big Ten history. They played Ohio State and Wisconsin just once each - both losses. In this stretch where the Illini have won 6 of 7, they've beaten only one RPI Top 50 team (v. Michigan St.), who was a bubble team themselves just one week ago. In fact, 5 of their 9 conference wins were against the trio of Penn St., Minnesota, and Northwestern - who have a combined six wins in conference.

Notre Dame (22-6, 10-5 Big East): I'm not going to say anyone from ESPN even glances at this blog, but they have conveniently focused on West Virginia's weaker-than-presumed resume since the resume-masking activity last week. For that reason, I'll focus on Notre Dame, who has only boosted their resume as a result of winning games they're supposed to win and getting a great string of results lately from Maryland, Louisville, and Syracuse (sweep). In their 13 non-conference games, all of three were played against teams with a RPI better than 180 and only one was played outside the state of Indiana. Also, what is up with playing South Florida the same number of times as Georgetown, Pittsburgh, and Marquette ... combined (2)?

Better Than They Seem

Villanova (19-9, 7-7): By record, Villanova is 9th in the Big East standings. Yes, 9th. But there's a reason why a team without a superb non-conference schedule can be catapulted to 7th in SOS during the conference season whilst only playing in the 5th-best conference. It's called playing the top 6 teams by record (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette and Notre Dame) a total of eight times - twice each for Georgetown and Notre Dame.

Hopes Dashed and Revived - Clemson and Oregon

On Thursday night, two fading squads who badly needed victories on their home court against Power 16 teams had a dissimilar fate. By the end of the night, hopes were shot in Clemson while they were revitalized in Eugene.

Clemson continued their sharp ACC descent as they lost at home to Duke. While the Tigers and their fans may lament three missed Duke travel calls, one mistaken travel call against them, and a mistaken basket interference call; however, how do you get down by 23 to a team that does not know how to score consistently? Credit the fans at Littlejohn Coliseum for never giving up in the pursuit of a comeback. Also, credit Duke for buckling down on defense whenever the lead got to within two baskets.

Just minutes from halftime, Oregon trailed Washington State by double digits. When losing 6 of 8 games in a cut-throat conference, character is needed to overcome such deficits against quality opponents. Not giving in, the Ducks rallied behind Tajuan Porter to defeat the surging Cougars. Putting things in perspective, Oregon avoided being 8-8 in conference and should be in the tournament given their resume.

Additionally, following up on the Wednesday post, the 3rd best resume belonged to West Virginia, who averages a 9-seed according to a collection of bracket projections at the Comparing the Seeds page (link on the right). The first was Old Dominion and the second was Illinois. Something to think about as we move closer to the final stretch of the regular season.