Monday, February 26, 2007

Unbalanced Scheduling & How It Affects Bubble Teams

With conference seasons coming to a close and many people joining the college basketball universe for this next month only, I feel it is necessary to tackle the growing issue of unbalanced scheduling as it relates to five BCS conferences (Pac-10 has balanced scheduling). We'll be looking at three of the most pronounced cases of optical illusions amongst the bubble teams while also taking a look at one team whose intra-conference schedule supercedes its unassuming conference record.

Optical Illusions

Kansas St. (20-9, 9-5 Big XII): In most years, having 20 wins and 9 in conference with two to play puts you in great position for an upper seed. Not so. Among their 9 conference wins, only one (@ Texas) is against a team in the RPI Top 50. Their neutral court triumph over USC is barely holding up a nearly hollow resume. The Wildcats will need to win at least two more games to create some separation between them and other bubble teams.

Illinois (21-9, 9-6 Big Ten): Illinois may very well be the most fraudulent 9-6 team in Big Ten history. They played Ohio State and Wisconsin just once each - both losses. In this stretch where the Illini have won 6 of 7, they've beaten only one RPI Top 50 team (v. Michigan St.), who was a bubble team themselves just one week ago. In fact, 5 of their 9 conference wins were against the trio of Penn St., Minnesota, and Northwestern - who have a combined six wins in conference.

Notre Dame (22-6, 10-5 Big East): I'm not going to say anyone from ESPN even glances at this blog, but they have conveniently focused on West Virginia's weaker-than-presumed resume since the resume-masking activity last week. For that reason, I'll focus on Notre Dame, who has only boosted their resume as a result of winning games they're supposed to win and getting a great string of results lately from Maryland, Louisville, and Syracuse (sweep). In their 13 non-conference games, all of three were played against teams with a RPI better than 180 and only one was played outside the state of Indiana. Also, what is up with playing South Florida the same number of times as Georgetown, Pittsburgh, and Marquette ... combined (2)?

Better Than They Seem

Villanova (19-9, 7-7): By record, Villanova is 9th in the Big East standings. Yes, 9th. But there's a reason why a team without a superb non-conference schedule can be catapulted to 7th in SOS during the conference season whilst only playing in the 5th-best conference. It's called playing the top 6 teams by record (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette and Notre Dame) a total of eight times - twice each for Georgetown and Notre Dame.

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