NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 7.0
(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)
With Selection Sunday thirteen days away, teams are shooting their way up the brackets. However, the forgotten truth is that more [bubble] teams play their way out of the tournament than the opposite way around. This is why after two home wins over Wisconsin and Indiana, Michigan State shot up from 66th to 25th on the board. The signature win against a full-strength Wisconsin was further legitimized by the 2nd-half resurgence in a victory over Indiana.
Speaking of the Badgers, they revisited heartbreak on Sunday, as they fell to Ohio State in a defensive struggle and ceded victory to the Big Ten regular season champions. As a result of the two losses and Ohio State finally earning a signature win to match their on-court display, they come in this week as the fourth of the 1-seeds. Following the perfect storm of results (losses for Florida & UNC) and taking care of business in Westwood, UCLA arrives this week as the #1 overall seed.
Either entering or re-entering the projected field of 65 are Illinois, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and Kansas State. Both Tech and Syracuse have make-or-break weeks ahead of their respective conference tournaments. After weeks of thinning patience with Alabama, I was forced to leave them out after their dreadful home defeat [and sweep] to Auburn. Ditto on the Cowboys, who are now 5-8 in the Big XII and have forgotten how to defend. West Virginia is a judgment call, and this judge decided not to give full credit to the Mountaineers for defeating UCLA sans Mr. Collison. I was also forced to come to grips with reality by omitting cult-favorite/resume boaster Appalachian State. There’s no chance that the Southern Conference (RPI: 19) will get 2 bids given ASU’s jaw-dropping losses, so I’m projecting Davidson [due to the personal bias rule] who won their conference by two games.
Lastly, don’t be overly surprised (but be angry) if the WAC gets a second team in the field even if Nevada wins the conference tournament. They are the 9th-rated conference according to the RPI – albeit, by a rather large margin – and their top seven teams won in ESPN BracketBusters games. I’m certain that if Doug Elgin was the WAC commissioner, all of North America would know about their ESPNBB record (7-2) in addition to having five RPI-top 100 teams.
For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.
| Seed | East (3) | South (2) | Midwest (4) | West (1) |
| 1 | North Carolina | Florida | Ohio St. | UCLA |
| 2 | Wisconsin | Kansas | Texas A&M | Georgetown |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | Memphis | Duke | Southern Illinois |
| 4 | Washington St. | Virginia Tech | Nevada | Maryland |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | Oregon | Marquette | Indiana |
| 6 | USC | Virginia | UNLV | Kentucky |
| 7 | Butler | Tennessee | Arizona | Michigan St. |
| 8 | Texas | Louisville | Texas Tech | Air Force |
| 9 | BYU | Xavier | Stanford | Villanova |
| 10 | Boston College | Creighton | Notre Dame | Winthrop |
| 11 | Old Dominion | Illinois | Missouri St. | Drexel |
| 12 | Syracuse | Kansas St. | Georgia Tech | Georgia |
| 13 | Davidson | Holy Cross | Akron | Gonzaga |
| 14 | Pennsylvania | Vermont | Oral Roberts | Long Beach St. |
| 15 | Sam Houston St. | Marist | E. Tennessee St. | Western Kentucky |
| 16 | Weber St. | Jackson St./Central Connecticut St. | Austin Peay | Delaware St. |
Seedings
1s: UCLA, Florida, UNC, Ohio St.
2s: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Kansas, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Duke
4s: Nevada, Washington St., Virginia Tech, Maryland
5s: Oregon, Vanderbilt, Marquette, Indiana
6s: UNLV, Kentucky, USC, Virginia
7s: Michigan St., Tennessee, Arizona, Butler
8s: Texas, Louisville, Air Force, Texas Tech
9s: Stanford, Boston College, Villanova, Xavier (Stanford and BC could not fit on the same seed line; therefore, Boston College is placed on the 10-line)
10s: BYU, Notre Dame, Creighton, Winthrop
11s: Old Dominion, Missouri St., Illinois, Drexel
12s: Georgia Tech, Georgia, Syracuse, Kansas St.
13s: Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Akron, Davidson
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Marist, Sam Houston St., E. Tennessee St.
16s: Austin Peay, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.
In: Michigan St., Illinois, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Kansas St., Gonzaga, Sam Houston St., Western Kentucky
Out: Alabama, Purdue, West Virginia, Appalachian St., Oklahoma St., Santa Clara, Texas A&M-CC, South Alabama
Last Four In: Georgia Tech, Georgia, Syracuse, Kansas St.
Last Four Out: Appalachian St., West Virginia, Florida St., Purdue
Next Four Out: Alabama, UMass, Oklahoma St., Utah St.
Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Posts
10 comments:
Why does the Big XII have two teams ahead of the Big East leader despite the BE having a stronger conference RPI?
Your love for the mid-major schools makes me want to vomit! Drexel might not even make the NIT because they finished 4th in their raggedy conference during the regular season.
Get real!
I am assuming you have ODU taking out Drexel in the CAA Tournament?
Likely, but nevertheless interesting.
Good question about A&M and Kansas preceding Georgetown. It's a matter of the current resume. The Hoyas may overtake both teams this week, as all 3 have tough games on the slate.
I tend to predict based on the current body of work rather than project and allow my own biases to make way, so I'm not necessarily picking ODU to defeat Drexel in the CAA Tournament. ODU is within 1 game of the CAA regular season trophy, so I allowed myself to give them my automatic bid. In the case of Appalachian St., who I think will win the Southern Conference tourney, I didn't allow myself to take them over Davidson because they finished 2 games below the regular season champ.
If Drexel loses in the final and defeats VCU in the process, there's another quality for the Dragons who already have a formidable at-large resume. It'll depend on Butler, Nevada, Xavier, and Memphis winning their conference tournaments.
Dude, congrats! We've got Billy fudge-Packer leaving comments on the site! :-)
Is the Cuse officially in now?
Officially is a tough word to tag on a team like Syracuse who showed no juevos in their non-conference schedule. Keep in mind that they didn't even leave their state.
The signature win goes a long way so long as Georgetown returns to dominance in their last game and into the Big East tournament. Current form is also important, but that can be negated.
Here's the scenario of fear leading to potential non-inclusion: loss to Villanova, loss to #12 seed in 1st round of Big East tournament. I've seen stranger stuff go down at The Garden (on tv, of course).
Florida. Your thoughts on a 1 seed at this point?
Michigan loves that bubble, year in and year out. Should they beat #1 OSU this weekend, or come extremely close, what more would they need for that coveted bid?
Florida's 3rd loss in 4 games drops them to 4th overall. I would've made them 5th, but I'm not ready to put a Brian Butch-less Wisconsin ahead of them.
As for Michigan, they just made their way onto the bubble with their Michigan St. win. If they defeat Ohio State, it will depend on their seeding. They should be in the clear with a trip to the semis. Neither is likely.
Keep the questions coming.
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