The Can’t Miss Kid…Right?

Anyone who is anyone, in the NFL-world, seems to be promoting Calvin Johnson as the ‘can’t miss kid’ of this draft. The prospect that is simply too good – even as a wide receiver – for any team to logically not select as a franchise-talent. No matter what you really need or what you already may have (or have recently drafted), the point is: you must draft Calvin Johnson. Right?

So in a little under three weeks, April 28^th to be precise, it seems a done deal that whomever selects Calvin Johnson…has a stud for the next dozen-or-so years. And why wouldn’t you feel that way? Last season the junior wide receiver from Georgia Tech was nothing short of break-taking at times. Right?

Credit: CSTV

Junior Season: 76 receptions, 1202 yds, 15.8 yds/catch, and 15tds.

Pick-6 Marquee Games:

Notre Dame – 7 receptions, 111 yds, 1 TD [10-14 loss]
@ Va. Tech – 6 receptions, 165 yds, 2 TDs [38-27 win]
Miami – 5 receptions, 68 yards, 1 tD [30-23 win]
@Georgia – 2 receptions, 13 yds [12-15 loss]
ACC Title Game: Wake Forest – 8 receptions, 117 yds [6-9 loss]
Gator Bowl: West Virginia – 9 receptions, 186 yds, 2 TDs [35-38 loss]

Stats aren’t everything. Of course stats like these sure do help. Not to imagine a ridiculous combine. It’s all there it seems.

So it seems, according to all the real experts of note, this guy shouldn’t slip past the #1 draft pick. He is simply too fundamentally sound, too physically imposing, and too much of an amazing character-guy (I’ve even heard multiple sentiments reminiscent of, “TO’s talent without the attitude and the drops”) to even think about slipping through a team’s grasp. In fact, passing on him would be just as ridiculous as Houston not taking Vince Young or Reggie Bush. Right?

But before we anoint him the next #1, let’s take a closer look at the top 4 teams in the 2007 NFL Draft (as of now). We only stop at the 4^th pick as it seems theoretically impossible that Coach John Gruden would ever dream of allowing Johnson to slip past him (if not trade up to select him earlier if he must). Right?

#1. Oakland Raiders
Current Wideouts on roster (of note): Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry, Doug Gabriel and Alvis Whitted.
Why Draft Johnson: See those five above. Each has plenty to make you worry about, even before they step on the field. Moss is an enigma to himself, Porter wishes he was an enigma, Curry is off the field more than he’s on it, Gabriel lacks any separation, and Whitted is an overachiever as a #3-wideout (at best).
Why Don’t Draft Johnson: It’s time this team realized that stopgaps – Aaron Brooks – and prospects – Andrew Walter – aren’t the fix. Draft LSU’s Jamarcus Russell and then search for talent to surround him. You have Rhodes/Jordan and perhaps Moss can get behind the rookie. Don’t pretend that picking up Josh McCown or allowing Walter, who is sacked more than he throws the ball downfield, can automatically become playoff-ready QBs with the insertion of a freakishly talented wideout. Not unless you believe he can pancake three defenders before catching a 35-yard TD pass. Right?
Who Will They Draft: LSU’s Jamarcus Russell is who they should take. Fortunately, for once, the Raiders will do the correct thing. If they’re smart, they sit him a year and pick up another top pick.
Odds on Drafting Johnson: 15%. This number changes dramatically if the Raiders land a free-agent QB they like or trade for a young arm. While there has been a rise in second-tier QB talk as of late, the big guy from LSU is the best possible pick for a very, very bad team.

#2. Detroit Lions
Current Wideouts on roster (of note): Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, Mike Williams, and Shaun McDonald.
Why Draft Johnson: Forget about the past for a moment. Can you imagine what a lineup of Roy Williams & Calvin Johnson would mean for the Lions offense? Especially with an offensive guru, not genius, like Mike Martz calling the plays? Mike Williams can stay or go with that type of opening day duo. It’s hard to pass up that type of physical talent and incredible downfield-speed.
Why Don’t Draft Johnson: 3 straight 1^st-round, top-tier wideout picks. Scorecard says the Lions are 1-2. That’s not a good track record to sell #4. Seriously, this team has zero reason to pick Johnson. Idiotically enough, they view John Kitna as the best option to move ahead…and win. Josh McCown couldn’t see a snap last year that meant a thing and it’s becoming more and more obvious the Lions enjoy being the laughing stock of the NFC.
Who Will They Draft: They’ll either trade down, as they don’t love anybody at #2, or take Wisconsin all-world tackle Joe Thomas. Don’t let the experts fool you either, they loved Robert Galley (just about all of em) just as much as they love this Wisconsin Badger.
Odds on Drafting Johnson: 5%. Don’t fool out how moronic Matt Millen and the Ford Family truly are. Nevertheless, this seems like the perfect slot to trade down (let’s say with Tampa or Denver) and wait to select Joe Thomas or Levi Brown later in the top-half of the first round. Although their flat-out denial of not drafting Brady Quinn doesn’t mean they wouldn’t take Russell, or I suppose…Johnson. Right?

#3. Cleveland Browns
Current Wideouts on roster (of note): Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, and ???
Why Draft Johnson: There is zero protection for teams quadruple-covering Braylon. That isn’t a good thing when your star wideout believes he’s twice as good as a twice-as-good-Jerry-Rice. Johnson and Edwards make an interesting pair who could be tandem Pro Bowlers for years to come. Even with Trent Green or Charlie Frye throwing them the ball.
Why Don’t Draft Johnson: Charlie Frye had his chance to impress…and didn’t. You take Brady Quinn, who for some reason wants to be a Brown, and hope for the best. Even if Russell slides, you can have fun picking one or the other. Either way, select a franchise QB. You haven’t had one since the middle ages.
Who Will They Draft: They may swap down a pick or two and get cute; however, the smart money is drafting hometown Ohioan Brady Quinn and appeasing the fans. This team has spent enough top picks on defensive people. Tim Couch’s memory can only be swept clear by drafting the Notre Dame all-world passer.
Odds on Drafting Johnson: 5%. I just don’t see this team passing up on Quinn or, if they couldn’t land either QB somehow, Adrian Peterson. Despite the talent, Johnson isn’t too good for them to pass up this season. If head coach Romeo Crenell and GM Phil Savage are absolutely desperate for their jobs, and thus avoid selecting a young QB, it still seems Peterson is the best fix over Johnson (at least in my opinion). Right?

#4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Wideouts on roster (of note): Joey Galloway, Michael Clayton, Ike Hilliard, and Maurice Stovall.
Why Draft Johnson: He’s dynamic, a ticket-selling machine (or so everyone says), and Joey Galloway isn’t getting much younger. While Clayton has heavily regressed recently, a guy like Calvin Johnson would give this offense some much needed energy, speed, and playmaking ability. Jeff Garcia was brought in, for now I suppose, and Chris Simms has a two-year contract. A third QB might be too many cooks in one kitchen, while Gruden’s man-love for Johnson is far from hidden. Tampa wants this guy. In fact, they appear to need him. Right?
Why Don’t Draft Johnson: The heart and soul of the Tampa run to the Super Bowl was of course…their defense. Look at it now: sans-superstars and aging rapidly. It’s time to address that with some energy and some talent. Wouldn’t you know it: Gaines Adams of Clemson is a freakish talent who could become your next Simeon Rice for the next ten years. He has the speed and the size that makes him a gem at #4. Forget another wideout and rebuild the defense around a cornerstone pass-rushing end.
Who Will They Draft: Johnson. Simply put, they’ll run up to the podium, plant a kiss on his cheek, and start selling the jerseys as soon as they possibly can.
Odds on Drafting Johnson: 95%. The Bucs might not be able to pass up Russell, the only guy on their board that could potentially be ahead of Johnson, but most likely pass by Quinn. Ironically enough, with some work in front of them, they could miss out on the Big 3 of Russell, Quinn, and Johnson altogether. After the tears flow, I suppose they’d target trading down or Clemson’s Gaines Adams.

So there you have it. Perspective on the can’t-miss-kid.

But before I leave you, let’s take a brief look at the past 5 NFL Draft top-10 wideout selections. And yes, I know not all of them have the talent and freakish qualities that Johnson possesses; yet, remember that going top 10 – especially as a wideout – doesn’t make you chopped liver either. Right?

2006: None [Regarded as a wide receiver-depleted draft, Pittsburgh took Santonio Holmes with the 25^th pick. Ironically enough, more wideouts – 33 – were drafted than any other position at the 2006 NFL Draft.]

2005: Three. [3^rd Pick – Cleveland Browns selected the baby-enigma known as Braylon Edwards from Michigan. 7^th Pick – Minnesota selected their “replacement” for Randy Moss in the form of Troy “Remember Me?” Williamson of South Carolina. 10^th Pick – To nobody’s real surprise, remember it was Matt Millen, the Lions selected USC wideout Mike Williams. Detroit fans across the nation cheered this by the way. I wondered how DeMarcus Ware and Derrick Johnson didn’t punch a hole in their respective TVs. Oh yeah, they weren’t drafted by the Lions.]

2004: Three. [A tight end also was selected. K2, anyone? With the 3^rd selection the Arizona Cardinals wisely selected Larry Fitzgerald out of Pitt. Detroit selected a wideout (shocker!), their only good one of the three, Roy Williams of Texas with the 7^th pick. Jacksonville took perhaps the most panicked-reach of the young century by selecting Washington’s Reggie “No, not Roy” Williams.]

2003: Two. [The 2^nd pick, belonging to your Detroit Lions, was used on can’t-miss-Spartan Charles Rodgers. What a steal! The 3^rd pick, from the lowly Houston Texans, was spent on Andre Johnson out of the U. Which is also known as Miami to you non-experts and Nike shoe-salesman.]

2002: None. [I love remembering this draft, particularly for Kansas City sprinting past the late Vikings to draft Ryan Simms. Yeah, that Ryan Simms.]

Until next time…

Friday's Previews

The games are underway but here are the previews for five of the games that we're looking forward to today.

#7. UNLV vs. #10. Georgia Tech [12:25pm] Midwest Region
- A lot of people are lovin these young Yellow Jackets. Not me. They expended a ton of energy just making the tournament in the past month. Meanwhile, UNLV is the nation’s best kept secret and coach Lon Kruger will turn out to be a strong asset in confusing and outgunning these talented, yet very youthful Yellow Jackets.
Deciding Factor: Unless Thadeus Young is planning a breakout party, people need to quit thinking about the Yellow Jackets as Elite Eight participants.

#4. Virginia vs. #13. Albany [12:15pm] South Region
- I’ve heard everything as of late pertaining to Virginia ranging from they’re the worst 4-seed in years to they have a virtual cakewalk until the Sweet Sixteen. While Albany might not be worthy of the upset, it’s extremely important to note how JR Reynolds’ back is and how well the backcourt duo (Reynolds/Singletary) shoot in the opening game. Virginia needs a blowout victory more than any other team in the first round, in my opinion.

#6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [2:30pm] Midwest Region
- There’s no chance that this matchup can live up to its billing. Two three-guard lineups that are fun to watch and execute well. Expect plenty of three-pointers and hard work down low.
Deciding Factor: Execution in the final 5 minutes of the game

#7. Nevada vs. #10. Creighton [2:50pm] South Region
- The NCAA loves to pit mid-majors against one another. Anyone who doesn’t see this disturbing trend is either blind or stupid. Or both. Creighton is better than a 10 and Nevada is better than a 7. Nevada will want this game played in the 70s or 80s while Creighton will want it in the 60s.
Deciding Factor: Two matchups – Ramon Sessions vs. Nate Funk and Nick Fazekas vs. Anthony Tolliver.

#8. Arizona vs. #9. Purdue [7:20pm] Midwest Region
- This is a battle of talent and potential versus a hard-working team. I look forward to seeing Landry and Radenovic battling it out inside. Chase Buddinger needs to not be Chase Suckinger – he was a top 5 recruit and has disappointed. The guard matchups are going to be fun to be watch. I just think that if Marcus Williams asserts himself, Arizona will be playing Florida on Sunday.
Deciding Factor: Arizona deciding to play defense and hustle. It’s that simple.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.1

(Editor’s Note: In the final bracket, I’ll have 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 (overall seed). These projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

At the moment, we have to keep UCLA as a #1 seed. This is not necessarily a projection site. This means that since Florida, North Carolina, Kansas, and Wisconsin have yet to step on the floor for their conference tournament games, they have yet to produce a result; therefore, UCLA is where they are. They’ll likely be on the 1-line but either 3^rd or 4^th overall and playing out west. I’m not in love with how they’re playing.

Thursday was a crazy day. West Virginia and Alabama have a 3-letter future, while Air Force did all in its power to have a similar fate. After a stellar week defeating two of the ACC’s top four on its home floor, Georgia Tech lost a wild one in double overtime to Wake Forest. In fact, Harvey Hale is still hitting 3s as we speak. What kills Georgia Tech and may doom them come Selection Sunday is their 3-10 road/neutral record. Their 8 wins against the RPI top 50 (8-8; tied for 4^th in D-1 for wins) keeps them in for now.

I really hated Maryland’s defeat to Miami and hated it even more that I can only drop them one line seed for now, because everyone else near them also lost games they were not supposed to lose.

Another question that arises as I was seeding the bubble teams: Is the committee aware that Missouri State would have defeated St. Louis, if not for a blown official’s call as time expired? My guess is yes, and that puts over the hump. There’s still a ton of basketball, and it’s my guess that at least one non-tournament team will steal a bid before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box or e-mail me at phashemi@gmail.com.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (1)	West (2)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Southern Illinois	Memphis
4	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt	Maryland
5	Tennessee	Nevada	Marquette	UNLV
6	Kentucky	Louisville	Virginia	Texas
7	Arizona	BYU	Villanova	Duke
8	Notre Dame	Texas Tech	Creighton	Indiana
9	Michigan St.	Boston College	USC	Xavier
10	Georgia Tech	Winthrop	Old Dominion	Virginia Commonwealth
11	Missouri St.	Gonzaga	Davidson	Butler
12	Akron	Syracuse	Florida St.	Arkansas
13	Drexel	Stanford	Wright St.	Holy Cross
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Niagara	Belmont	Delaware St.
16	Eastern Kentucky	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Weber St.

In: Florida St., Wright St., Niagara
Out: Air Force, Purdue, Siena

Seedings
1s: Ohio St., UCLA, Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas A&M
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Oregon
4s: Washington St., Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Maryland
5s: Marquette Tennessee, UNLV, Nevada
6s: Texas, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville
7s: BYU, Arizona, Duke, Villanova
8s: Notre Dame, Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech
9s: Michigan St., Xavier, USC, Boston College
10s: Winthrop, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Virginia Commonwealth
11s: Syracuse, Butler, Gonzaga, Davidson (Due to a seeding conflict, Syracuse and Missouri St. will swap seeds on the bracket)
12s: Missouri St., Florida St., Akron, Arkansas
13s: Drexel, Stanford, Holy Cross, Wright St.
14s: Vermont, Oral Roberts, Penn, Long Beach St.
15s: Texas A&M-CC, Belmont, Niagara, Delaware St.
16s: Eastern Kentucky, North Texas, Weber St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Florida St., Arkansas, Drexel, Stanford
Last Four Out: Air Force, Purdue, Georgia, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Kansas St., Mississippi St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 5
Big Ten: 4
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Colonial: 3
Mountain West: 2
Horizon: 2

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 7.1

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place. Additionally, these projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

We are now nine days away from Selection Sunday, and half of the top eight teams have lost already this week. The biggest shake-up at the top was North Carolina’s removal from the land of the #1 seeds. At their expense, Wisconsin nipped Kansas for the final 1-seed. Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s overtime loss to Texas gave us enough to alter the projected winner of the Big 12. In short, A&M (AKA Acie Law IV university) didn’t show their normal defensive vigor, and that’s a very bad sign moving forward.

In the ACC, Maryland completed its season sweep of Duke, and now occupy the final 3-seed – a far-cry from being 3-6 in conference and allegations that Gary Williams had forgotten how to coach. Staying in the ACC, Georgia Tech moved one major step closer to safety, as they defeated North Carolina on Thursday night. Despite being the outright regular season leader, UVa lacks the quality road/neutral court wins to garner a higher seed. The ‘Hoos have a lot to gain next weekend in Tampa.

Although I highly doubt that this will hold, Appalachian St. is the final team in the field. Why? Their resume is better than the other teams. The team currently in the field that has to impress me to stay in is Illinois. The majority of their conference wins are against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State), who are just awful. Their measurables (RPI, SOS) are what keeps them in, but something just doesn’t add up about this team except for their solid team defense.

Picking up steam in the national press is recognition of a possible second bid for the Colonial Athletic Association. This is not news to PHSports, as we have projected two bids for the conference since February 12. Narcissism aside, if VCU and Drexel meet in the semifinals, many in the know are now considering this game on Sunday to be worth an at-large bid.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	Wisconsin	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	North Carolina	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Maryland	Memphis	Pittsburgh	Southern Illinois
4	Oregon	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt
5	UNLV	Duke	Tennessee	Virginia
6	Nevada	Kentucky	Arizona	Texas
7	Louisville	Marquette	BYU	Indiana
8	Boston College	Michigan St.	Stanford	Texas Tech
9	Xavier	Notre Dame	Butler	Villanova
10	USC	Creighton	Georgia Tech	Air Force
11	Missouri St.	Illinois	Old Dominion	Winthrop
12	Syracuse	Drexel	Appalachian St.	Gonzaga
13	Georgia	Holy Cross	Akron	Davidson
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Sam Houston St.	Marist	E. Tennessee St.	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Austin Peay	Delaware St.

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, Wisconsin
2s: Kansas, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Maryland
4s: Oregon, Virginia Tech, Washington St., Vanderbilt
5s: Virginia, Tennessee, Duke, UNLV
6s: Nevada, Kentucky, Texas, Arizona
7s: Marquette, BYU, Indiana, Louisville
8s: Boston College, Stanford, Michigan St., Texas Tech
9s: USC, Georgia Tech, Villanova, Butler (USC and Georgia Tech were placed on the 10^th seed line due to conflict)
10s: Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, Air Force (Notre Dame and Xavier are placed on the 9^th seed line)
11s: Winthrop, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Missouri St. (Syracuse was placed on the 12^th seed line due to conflict)
12s: Illinois, Drexel, Gonzaga, Georgia (Illinois was placed on the 11^th seed line and Georgia was placed on the 13^th seed line due to conflicts)
13s: Appalachian St., Davidson, Holy Cross, Akron (Appalachian St. was placed on the 12^th line due to Georgia’s conflict)
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Marist, Sam Houston St., E. Tennessee St.
16s: Austin Peay, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Appalachian St.
Out: Kansas St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Drexel, Georgia, Appalachian St.
Last Four Out: Alabama, Purdue, Oklahoma St. UMass
Next Four Out: Bradley, VCU, Utah St., Florida St.

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Southern: 2