Thursday Night Streaming Updates...

We don't have many of these regular season Thursday left (to be honest, it's our last) and there are plenty o' matchups we have our eyes on.

Shocker, it's not all about the college basketball bubble...yet.

So who do you have tonight on the "bubble" for the Oceanic 6 on Lost?
Credit: Newsday.com

Checking in right before 9:00pm.

• #13 UCONN trails at Providence 64-59. Providence is savoring this matchup and the potential to play spoiler to white-hot UCONN. Jerome Dyson just scored his first basket. I suddenly have memories of his 10-point run during their double-digit comeback against Cincinnati. Thabeet re-enters with 4 fouls...interesting to see how he handles this in the paint.
  
• UCLA v. Stanford still tips off at 11pm eastern time. I understand my obvious East Coast-bias; however, there is no reason a game this rock solid (talkin' #3 vs. #7 and potential Pac-10 regular season supremacy) should be on so late for such a large portion fo the country.
• Georgia Tech leads Clemson by 2 with a little over six minutes left to play. Will any conference be as up and down as the ACC should be the next couple days? Something tells me free throws and deep-threes will decide the victor of this late-season ACC matcup.
  
• Northeastern Conference (Robert Morris, Sacred Heart, Wagner, etc.) has started up tonight, no real upsets of note yet.
• Keep an eye on Xavier vs. St. Joe's at 9pm tonight. The Hawks are playing for their lives on the bubble, while the Musketeers have recently been called out on several blogs (including this one) for being rated a little too highly.

My girlfriend has taken over HD to watch the Project Runway finale. Sad times around 9:30pm.

• Of course, Clemson loses to (5-9 in conference) Georgia Tech 80-75. It's shocking to say, but Virginia Tech could play their way into the 3-seed in the ACC Tournament and still be on the outside of the "bubble" looking in. Clemson, Miami, and Virginia Tech may enter March Madness - wherever they are seeded - as some of the worst teams to be their respectively. Yeah, I said it.
• Providence hangs on late and impressively knocks off UCONN. Does this derail Husky momentum or are they saving it for MSG? The Friars may have locked up the 12-seed in the Big East tournament (only next year can all 16 years go to MSG).
• St. Joe's up early 20-17 on Xavier. This could be interesting to follow...
• Illinois also up on Michigan State 25-17 mid-way through the 1st-half. The Spartans may be the most frustrating team in the country - outside of College Park - this entire season. They are gonna be brutal to judge once brackets are released.
• No real eye-openers on the mid-major schedule right now. Maybe I need to look harder.
• UCLA v. Stanford is still at 11. I'm protesting by going to bed before then.
  
• Here are two fuzzy, yet hilarious random YouTube clips: Family Guy & Holiday Hawk. Enjoy!
  

Pay checking in at 9:50

• I have my eye on Oregon (7-9) versus Arizona State (8-8). Oregon is up 7 with 12 and change in regulation. If they hold on, their game against Arizona (who's handling winless Oregon State) may very well be an NCAA elimination game if both teams lose in the quarters of the PAC-10 tournament. On a side note, does anyone else think that Dick Enberg should write an essay for every tournament game that he covers and not just the finale?
• St. Joe's is up 7 at halftime against A-14 behemoth Xavier. I'll be shocked if they win and are not included in Joe Lunardi's next edition of ESPN Cracketology.
• Clement and I just spoke not too long ago and we're both missing out on the Stanford/UCLA. I'm really interested in seeing how the Cardinal guards will handle Collison and Westbrook. Though they are not the team that lost to Louisville by the first media timeout in the NCAA Tournament last season, I cannot say that I am sold on Stanford's ability to break guard pressure. While the Bruins won't press like a Louisville or a UAB of yesteryear under the tutelage of Mike Anderson, I envision them creating situations whereby the Cardinal will have to work to get the ball past the timeline.

Nearing 11pm

• Oregon (8-9) defeats Arizona State (8-9) setting up a clash between Arizona (8-9) and Oregon. If Oregon and Oregon State (who plays Arizona State) and you can only pick six PAC 10-teams, then who gets the boot [assuming all three lose in the Pac-10 quarters]?
• Xavier down 9 late. Make that 7 with 1:40 to go. I really hate the Hawk.
• Looking forward to the craziness of Arch Madness tomorrow with SIU and Illinois State in must-win situations.
• If Utah State hangs on at Boise State, the Aggies will be 11-4 and the Broncos will be 12-4. New Mexico State is up to 11-4. If Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico State will, then there will be an irrelevant four-way tie because New Mexico State has homecourt advantage regardless of their seed.
• Just to follow up, it's looking like St. Joe's is winning this one, setting up a huge showdown on Saturday at Dayton.
  

Until next update...

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Washington St.	Maryland	Memphis	Southern Illinois
4	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Marquette	Duke	Vanderbilt
6	UNLV	Nevada	Virginia	Texas
7	Georgia Tech	Louisville	BYU	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Texas Tech	Creighton	Villanova
9	Butler	Xavier	Notre Dame	Michigan St.
10	Winthrop	Air Force	USC	Boston College
11	Syracuse	Missouri St.	Old Dominion	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Davidson	Akron	Gonzaga
13	Arkansas	Purdue	Holy Cross	Drexel
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Siena	Belmont	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3

Hopes Dashed and Revived - Clemson and Oregon

On Thursday night, two fading squads who badly needed victories on their home court against Power 16 teams had a dissimilar fate. By the end of the night, hopes were shot in Clemson while they were revitalized in Eugene.

Clemson continued their sharp ACC descent as they lost at home to Duke. While the Tigers and their fans may lament three missed Duke travel calls, one mistaken travel call against them, and a mistaken basket interference call; however, how do you get down by 23 to a team that does not know how to score consistently? Credit the fans at Littlejohn Coliseum for never giving up in the pursuit of a comeback. Also, credit Duke for buckling down on defense whenever the lead got to within two baskets.

Just minutes from halftime, Oregon trailed Washington State by double digits. When losing 6 of 8 games in a cut-throat conference, character is needed to overcome such deficits against quality opponents. Not giving in, the Ducks rallied behind Tajuan Porter to defeat the surging Cougars. Putting things in perspective, Oregon avoided being 8-8 in conference and should be in the tournament given their resume.

Additionally, following up on the Wednesday post, the 3rd best resume belonged to West Virginia, who averages a 9-seed according to a collection of bracket projections at the Comparing the Seeds page (link on the right). The first was Old Dominion and the second was Illinois. Something to think about as we move closer to the final stretch of the regular season.