2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

Thursday FourCast: Bracket & Bubble Banter

by Chris Clement

Since I enjoyed adding “talking points” so much to Pay’s work last night, let’s do it again!

Here’s the Thursday edition. Oh yeah, here’s yesterday’s bracket projections.

1) A-10 Quarterfinals: Dayton/Xavier & Big East Quarterfinals: Villanova/Georgetown
-So maybe both don’t deserve to share the top spot; however, they both face tall mountains to climb against their conference’s regular season champions. While the Wildcats seem a much safer bubble-in squad (a 19-point brutalization over the ‘Cuse) than the Flyers, both might seal their ticket with wins early-Saturday afternoon. This could also mean relax, relief, or pure terror from the likes of Temple, UMass and St. Joe’s.

2) PAC-10 Quarterfinals: Arizona State vs. USC
-Though we have Arizona State in the field, they are not a lock to have their name called on Selection Sunday. This is not an ideal that is shared by all bracketologists. In fact, as often one of the last four in/last four out wins games they are not expected to win, the room for error for the PAC-10's #5 seed may be thinning by the day. Enter O.J. Mayo and the streaking Trojans who have the juice to drive a buzzsaw through the PAC-10 Tournament. While a loss to the Trojans might not throw them on the wrong side of the bubble, might a terrible one combined with Arizona and Oregon booking trips to the semis?

3) PAC-10 Quarterfinals, Take 2: Oregon vs. Washington State
-Could the Ducks become the first PAC-10 squad with a losing record to enter March Madness? With a recent sweep of ASU/Arizona, the Quack Attack (admit it, you like it) might seem as close to a bubble-lock as possible with a win over the Cougars. Lose the game and suddenly bubble-bound Arizona surpasses you for good and potentially 60%, rather than 70%, of the conference is tourney-bound.

4) Bubbly Bubblitis: UNLV/TCU & Miami(FL)/NC State & Florida/Alabama & Georgia/Ole Miss
-Okay, I could go on for hours. Perhaps, I could talk about the entire A-10 tournament. Instead, I selected these four games to break down the situations (or plights) of four types of bubble squads.
UNLV: Take the lead from San Diego and defend home court all the way into March Madness. Without a conference tournament title, you and New Mexico may bump each other into the last four out column.
Miami (FL): You appear more than safe after finishing 5th in the ACC and owning a win over Duke: An embarrassing loss to last year’s ACC Tournament runner-up NC State.
Florida: You now know reaching the SEC Tournament Finals may be the worst you can do. With such a young squad, does Billy “the Kid” have any magic left for the two-time defending champions to cling to?
Ole Miss: You’ve been called out by Pay as a potential sleeper. Who is my team to watch come conference tournament time? Anybody say…Nebraska??? ME!

See you Friday morning…hopefully with a little clarity.

2008 NCAA Projections - March 10, 2008

Christmas: Easily one of Philly's finest

Credit: Fans Only

(Editor's Note: This bracket does not reflect the result of the St. Mary's - San Diego game)

Last week, we held off on putting UNC as the #1 overall seed because they lacked that signature win. On Saturday, they got that win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, spoiling senior night for Duke, and for DaMarcus Nelson in particular. As for UCLA, they remained a #1 seed despite having two games which they probably should have lost. As a result, the gap between overall #4 and #5 teams on the big board has tightened.

In the Big East, Georgetown overcame Louisville to win the Big East regular season championship. Though Clement has a feeling that UConn may take the spoils at MSG, we project that the Hoya faithful will tell us exactly who they are when the clock shows three zeroes.

Moving to the fourth seed line, though we include MVC champ Drake, we really see them as a #5 seed; however, everyone else lost a game that they really should not have. On the seventh seed line, Marquette is a squad that can jump leaps and bounds with a superb showing at MSG, but we just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, let’s take a detour to the bubble.

- We have Ohio State as a #10 seed. Are they in? Not quite yet. Why are they so high? Perhaps, it’s because the Selection Committee loves to overrate quality March victories. This seeding may be one that we may need to review after their game against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.

- In deciding upon either Baylor or West Virginia for the final #10 seed, Baylor’s ability to the Big East #3 on a neutral court was more valuable than any single win that the Mountaineers had.

- In the PAC 10, we like seven teams as of right now. If Oregon loses by double digits against Washington State, then they will likely be out of the equation. Though Arizona finished 8-10 in conference, their #2 SOS nationally and a season sweep of the Cougars makes them more than viable.

- In the conference otherwise known as the A-14, we see Temple having the best opportunity to be the team that faces (and loses to) Xavier in the final. With their huge win against Xavier, St. Joseph’s claims the 34th at-large bid, outlasting VCU who lost a shocker to William & Mary. Of course, a sweep over UMass and a blowout win over Villanova never hurt. Despite winning both games this week, Dayton is now #8 seed, meaning that if they defeat St. Louis in the 1st round, they will face Xavier in the quarterfinals. Neither Clement nor myself felt brave enough to make that prediction regardless of whether Chris Wright plays.

- As stated for weeks, we expect UNLV to win the Mountain West Tournament on their home court. In doing that, we see them defeating both BYU and New Mexico, which shall help their resume.

- In the ACC, an expected loss for Virginia Tech and an unexpected one for Maryland (although Clement would have never put money on that game) meant doom and 4 seeds for now.

- Lastly, who is the best candidate to be this year’s Arkansas? That would be Ole Miss, who won its last three conference games to finish 7-9. Meanwhile, they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a rarity. Additionally, they can avoid Tennessee until the finals.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Indiana, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Pittsburgh
7: Marquette, Clemson, Kansas State, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, BYU, Kent State (MAC)
9: Miami-FL, Arizona State, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Oklahoma
10: Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor, West Virginia
11: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), UNLV (MWC), Illinois State
12: Texas A&M, Villanova, Temple, Oregon
13: St. Joseph’s, George Mason (CAA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: VCU, UMass, Syracuse, UAB
Next Four Out: Dayton, Maryland, Florida, Ole Miss

IN: Ohio State, Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Sacred Heart
OUT: VCU, Maryland, UMass, Southern Illinois, Dayton, Florida, Cal State Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Seeding Summary(Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 7/10
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big East: 7/16
ACC: 4/12
Big Ten: 5/11

West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
A-10: 3/14

Thursday Night Streaming Updates...

We don't have many of these regular season Thursday left (to be honest, it's our last) and there are plenty o' matchups we have our eyes on.

Shocker, it's not all about the college basketball bubble...yet.

So who do you have tonight on the "bubble" for the Oceanic 6 on Lost?
Credit: Newsday.com

Checking in right before 9:00pm.

• #13 UCONN trails at Providence 64-59. Providence is savoring this matchup and the potential to play spoiler to white-hot UCONN. Jerome Dyson just scored his first basket. I suddenly have memories of his 10-point run during their double-digit comeback against Cincinnati. Thabeet re-enters with 4 fouls...interesting to see how he handles this in the paint.
  
• UCLA v. Stanford still tips off at 11pm eastern time. I understand my obvious East Coast-bias; however, there is no reason a game this rock solid (talkin' #3 vs. #7 and potential Pac-10 regular season supremacy) should be on so late for such a large portion fo the country.
• Georgia Tech leads Clemson by 2 with a little over six minutes left to play. Will any conference be as up and down as the ACC should be the next couple days? Something tells me free throws and deep-threes will decide the victor of this late-season ACC matcup.
  
• Northeastern Conference (Robert Morris, Sacred Heart, Wagner, etc.) has started up tonight, no real upsets of note yet.
• Keep an eye on Xavier vs. St. Joe's at 9pm tonight. The Hawks are playing for their lives on the bubble, while the Musketeers have recently been called out on several blogs (including this one) for being rated a little too highly.

My girlfriend has taken over HD to watch the Project Runway finale. Sad times around 9:30pm.

• Of course, Clemson loses to (5-9 in conference) Georgia Tech 80-75. It's shocking to say, but Virginia Tech could play their way into the 3-seed in the ACC Tournament and still be on the outside of the "bubble" looking in. Clemson, Miami, and Virginia Tech may enter March Madness - wherever they are seeded - as some of the worst teams to be their respectively. Yeah, I said it.
• Providence hangs on late and impressively knocks off UCONN. Does this derail Husky momentum or are they saving it for MSG? The Friars may have locked up the 12-seed in the Big East tournament (only next year can all 16 years go to MSG).
• St. Joe's up early 20-17 on Xavier. This could be interesting to follow...
• Illinois also up on Michigan State 25-17 mid-way through the 1st-half. The Spartans may be the most frustrating team in the country - outside of College Park - this entire season. They are gonna be brutal to judge once brackets are released.
• No real eye-openers on the mid-major schedule right now. Maybe I need to look harder.
• UCLA v. Stanford is still at 11. I'm protesting by going to bed before then.
  
• Here are two fuzzy, yet hilarious random YouTube clips: Family Guy & Holiday Hawk. Enjoy!
  

Pay checking in at 9:50

• I have my eye on Oregon (7-9) versus Arizona State (8-8). Oregon is up 7 with 12 and change in regulation. If they hold on, their game against Arizona (who's handling winless Oregon State) may very well be an NCAA elimination game if both teams lose in the quarters of the PAC-10 tournament. On a side note, does anyone else think that Dick Enberg should write an essay for every tournament game that he covers and not just the finale?
• St. Joe's is up 7 at halftime against A-14 behemoth Xavier. I'll be shocked if they win and are not included in Joe Lunardi's next edition of ESPN Cracketology.
• Clement and I just spoke not too long ago and we're both missing out on the Stanford/UCLA. I'm really interested in seeing how the Cardinal guards will handle Collison and Westbrook. Though they are not the team that lost to Louisville by the first media timeout in the NCAA Tournament last season, I cannot say that I am sold on Stanford's ability to break guard pressure. While the Bruins won't press like a Louisville or a UAB of yesteryear under the tutelage of Mike Anderson, I envision them creating situations whereby the Cardinal will have to work to get the ball past the timeline.

Nearing 11pm

• Oregon (8-9) defeats Arizona State (8-9) setting up a clash between Arizona (8-9) and Oregon. If Oregon and Oregon State (who plays Arizona State) and you can only pick six PAC 10-teams, then who gets the boot [assuming all three lose in the Pac-10 quarters]?
• Xavier down 9 late. Make that 7 with 1:40 to go. I really hate the Hawk.
• Looking forward to the craziness of Arch Madness tomorrow with SIU and Illinois State in must-win situations.
• If Utah State hangs on at Boise State, the Aggies will be 11-4 and the Broncos will be 12-4. New Mexico State is up to 11-4. If Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico State will, then there will be an irrelevant four-way tie because New Mexico State has homecourt advantage regardless of their seed.
• Just to follow up, it's looking like St. Joe's is winning this one, setting up a huge showdown on Saturday at Dayton.
  

Until next update...