NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

10 Friday Night Thoughts: Clement-Style

Last night was so much fun…let’s do it again!!!

{Check out Thursday night's reactions HERE}

Perhaps a few of us here at PHSports were a little too rough on the over-seeded Sooners. Perhaps.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Ladies and Gentlemen…we have our buzzer beater!
It might not be a clip of “the shot”, but it’s hilarious nevertheless. As for “the shot”, you had to see it live to truly enjoy it. (I was teaching Economic Systems to 8^th graders, lucky me!) Either way, we got our buzzer beater and we all but automatically have our Cinderella-story out of the West Region (more below).

2) UCONN’t beat the Toreros.
Call me a hater, but I LOVE when opening nights respectively have Arizona and UCONN losing. Especially when the Huskies – who had lost team-MVP AJ Price to injury – lose as a 4-seed to arguably the WCC’s 3^rd team. Yeah, I’m hatin!

3) Bracketbusting.
You might’ve had Drake or UCONN in the Sweet Sixteen (likely taking on UCLA); however, I doubt many of you had Western Kentucky or San Diego in that spot. Ahhh, the beauty of the tournament. 4 and 5 seeds are often the most vulnerable teams out there. Not to mention, I LOVE when UCONN loses. I LOVE IT! Meanwhile, in the night caps, Vanderbilt trailed throughout (brilliant idea picking them to go to the Sweet 16, Clement) to high-flying Siena and ended up being the second 4-seed of the day to bow out early (far too early in my opinion).

4) 1-Seeds hold serve. No surprise.
Mount St. Mary’s might’ve kept pace with the Heels for the first ten minutes; yet, they clearly proved why they were contestants in the play-in game and why the Heels are the #1 overall seed. Ditto for Memphis and TX-Arlington, a game I didn't watch one second of.

5) Those pesky 8/9 games.
You get Oregon, who is nowhere near a 9-seed, matched up against an erratic 8^th-seeded Mississippi State. Good luck. Next up, you have an overhyped Indiana-team going against an under-the-radar Arkansas-squad. Good luck, again. We know who won. Question is: did you get BOTH games right?

6) Bruce Pearl…isn’t happy. Brad Stevens is ecstatic!
Win a game by 15 points and the majority of the media and nation are thoroughly disgusted with your performance. Bruce Pearl will light up like a firecracker (or a Mentos in Diet Coke) over the next 24-hours enough to make sure the Vols are more focused and more physical, especially since Butler looked THAT good. South Alabama wasn’t bad, it’s just the Bulldogs were again THAT good. Their three-point shooting was phenomenal (specifically Pete Campbell’s torching 8-10 from behind the arc performance) and Butler reminded quite a few of us of their potential. How they earned a 7-seed still baffles me. However, I know I’ll be in front of a TV for this matchup Sunday afternoon.

7) OK-lahoma!
They were obviously an overrated 6-seed, but was it fair to completely disrespect the Sooners? Probably not. Was it also a mistake to completely overrate a St. Joe’s team who got in by beating Xavier twice? Definitely. The Sooners, led by former VCU head coach Jeff Capel (plug!) shot nearly 60% the entire game as they throttled the second-to-last remaining A-10 squad. Boomer Sooner 72-64!

8) Oregon Trail
Oregon didn’t deserve to be in the tournament. They don’t deserve analysis. Thankfully, Mississippi State overcame an early deficit and won. Thank you, Starkville. Bye bye, Quack Attack.

9) Which Indiana team showed up?
CBS was asking it over and over and over…and over. In the end, Indiana will most likely be left asking themselves, “What might’ve happened if Sampson was never dismissed from the team?” Of course, a more fair question might be, “What if Sampson never violated any of the NCAA rules, again”. Nevertheless, Sonny Weems and a somewhat underrated Arkansas squad (their 9-seed was mainly a result of the SEC Final loss to Georgia) took out the Hooisers and pitted themselves against white-hot UNC. Not much of a reward, huh?

10) Late night…FEAST???
To be honest, Memphis/TX-Arlington & Louisville/Boise State seemed like snorers two days before they began. In the end, both games lacked drama. Both cruised to victories in the late night hours. However, there was definite intrigue on viewing the likes of Eric Gordon/DJ White/Patrick Beverly in one matchup and the wide-open 5/12 matchup of Clemson v. Villanova. While the aforementioned Razorback victory wasn’t filled with too much intrigue, there was more than enough reasons to view Villanova’s impressive 18-point comeback against the Clemson Tigers (the only one of four ACC teams to lose in the opening round). With more victories than any other 12-seed in nearly 30 years, Jay Wright’s crew reminded the nation of their talent and their grit. With Vanderbilt’s loss to Siena, we now have two brackets in which a 12 or 13 will advance to the Sweet Sixteen (Siena/Villanova in the Midwest and Western Kentucky/San Diego out West). The real question soon becomes: is Villanova capable of being a legit Cinderella?

I just can’t help myself. Time for numero 11!

11) Saturday…Saturday…Saturday Saturday Saturday
Tons of matchups I want to see tomorrow. TONS! Wisconsin/Kansas State (who dictates the pace early and often), Notre Dame/WASU (arguably Thursday’s top two performers), Marquette/Stanford (speed vs. size), and Pittsburgh/Michigan State (who’s hotter than Pitt or more schizo than MSU?). WOW. Not to mention, A&M has the talent (I said talent) to keep its game with UCLA more than interesting and Xavier remains the wild-card the entire media seems to be rooting for (even a #3-seed) out West.

A&M has tons of talent, like Josh Carter, but are they disciplined enough to maintain focus under a suffocating Bruins defensive attack?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

See you later today!!!

Enjoy the day.

2008 NCAA Projections - March 10, 2008

Christmas: Easily one of Philly's finest

Credit: Fans Only

(Editor's Note: This bracket does not reflect the result of the St. Mary's - San Diego game)

Last week, we held off on putting UNC as the #1 overall seed because they lacked that signature win. On Saturday, they got that win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, spoiling senior night for Duke, and for DaMarcus Nelson in particular. As for UCLA, they remained a #1 seed despite having two games which they probably should have lost. As a result, the gap between overall #4 and #5 teams on the big board has tightened.

In the Big East, Georgetown overcame Louisville to win the Big East regular season championship. Though Clement has a feeling that UConn may take the spoils at MSG, we project that the Hoya faithful will tell us exactly who they are when the clock shows three zeroes.

Moving to the fourth seed line, though we include MVC champ Drake, we really see them as a #5 seed; however, everyone else lost a game that they really should not have. On the seventh seed line, Marquette is a squad that can jump leaps and bounds with a superb showing at MSG, but we just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, let’s take a detour to the bubble.

- We have Ohio State as a #10 seed. Are they in? Not quite yet. Why are they so high? Perhaps, it’s because the Selection Committee loves to overrate quality March victories. This seeding may be one that we may need to review after their game against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.

- In deciding upon either Baylor or West Virginia for the final #10 seed, Baylor’s ability to the Big East #3 on a neutral court was more valuable than any single win that the Mountaineers had.

- In the PAC 10, we like seven teams as of right now. If Oregon loses by double digits against Washington State, then they will likely be out of the equation. Though Arizona finished 8-10 in conference, their #2 SOS nationally and a season sweep of the Cougars makes them more than viable.

- In the conference otherwise known as the A-14, we see Temple having the best opportunity to be the team that faces (and loses to) Xavier in the final. With their huge win against Xavier, St. Joseph’s claims the 34th at-large bid, outlasting VCU who lost a shocker to William & Mary. Of course, a sweep over UMass and a blowout win over Villanova never hurt. Despite winning both games this week, Dayton is now #8 seed, meaning that if they defeat St. Louis in the 1st round, they will face Xavier in the quarterfinals. Neither Clement nor myself felt brave enough to make that prediction regardless of whether Chris Wright plays.

- As stated for weeks, we expect UNLV to win the Mountain West Tournament on their home court. In doing that, we see them defeating both BYU and New Mexico, which shall help their resume.

- In the ACC, an expected loss for Virginia Tech and an unexpected one for Maryland (although Clement would have never put money on that game) meant doom and 4 seeds for now.

- Lastly, who is the best candidate to be this year’s Arkansas? That would be Ole Miss, who won its last three conference games to finish 7-9. Meanwhile, they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a rarity. Additionally, they can avoid Tennessee until the finals.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Indiana, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Pittsburgh
7: Marquette, Clemson, Kansas State, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, BYU, Kent State (MAC)
9: Miami-FL, Arizona State, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Oklahoma
10: Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor, West Virginia
11: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), UNLV (MWC), Illinois State
12: Texas A&M, Villanova, Temple, Oregon
13: St. Joseph’s, George Mason (CAA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: VCU, UMass, Syracuse, UAB
Next Four Out: Dayton, Maryland, Florida, Ole Miss

IN: Ohio State, Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Sacred Heart
OUT: VCU, Maryland, UMass, Southern Illinois, Dayton, Florida, Cal State Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Seeding Summary(Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 7/10
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big East: 7/16
ACC: 4/12
Big Ten: 5/11

West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
A-10: 3/14