NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style

Last night, Clement went where no man has gone before (except himself) and asked a series of questions pertinent to the NCAA Tournament. Today, I answer them. Is this deja vu? I think so.

Q: "On the Outside Looking In...Sorta"
Who has the best shot at a #1 seed: Memphis or Michigan State? And please, don't tell me neither (even if that's the case).

A: Neither has a realistic chance, but if you put a revolver to my head, I’d go with Michigan State. Memphis has zero chance of a #1 seed, because they have zero signature wins and zero additional opportunities for them. Michigan State has none either, but they have a number of very strong wins and could catapult to a #1 with a lot of help coupled with regular season and conference tournament championships in the Big Ten.

Q: "East Coast Bias"
Which team west of the Mississippi isn't getting enough respect: Washington, Arizona State, or Utah?

A: Actually, I think all of these teams are getting enough respect. Perhaps, many of Utah’s non-conference wins (Wisconsin-Green Bay, Ole Miss, Morgan State, Weber State, LSU, Gonzaga) have gone under the radar but they are respected, since they hold a 2-game lead in the hotly-contested Mountain West with only three to play. I would not be shocked if two of these play into the second weekend of the tournament.

Q: "Bengals from the Bayou"
How has LSU remained under the radar so much? Is SEC basketball that unexciting and uninspiring this season (outside of Mr. Meeks)? Are they a legitimate threat in the tournament?

A: LSU has remained under the radar as a result of their OOC schedule, which ranks 22^nd from the bottom of Division I. Additionally, they play 10 of their conference games in the frail SEC West (enough said). That said, they are starting to gain respect with every victory (4-0) against the sturdier SEC East. While LSU has performed admirably as we reach March, I do not see the Tigers outplaying their seed.

Q: "Hurricane Season???"
Which team is more likely to have a costly hiccup in their remaining games: Miami (Fl) or South Carolina?
A: Sadly, Miami is more likely to have that hiccup, despite being the more potent team in my opinion. South Carolina (9-4 in conference) has a realistic chance at 11 wins in conference with a visit from Rocky Top sandwiched between trips to Nashville and Athens. It’s no secret that the Hurricanes are battered and bruised, but they have started to play well in the clutch, and if they win at Georgia Tech and defeat NC State at home, then they are 8-8 in the nation’s top-ranked conference. That may keep them in the Last Four In, but we have seen that bids may be stolen in even the power conferences (e.g. Georgia).

Q: "(Mid) Major Dilemma!"
What's the (updated) prognoses on teams like Utah State, Creighton, and Siena, assuming neither of the three wins their conference tournament?

A: If Utah State does not win their conference tournament, then they should be prepared for a high NIT seed. If Creighton and Siena win the rest of their regular season games and lose in the final to the next best team, then they both should be in. Of course, a lot of this depends on other variables (i.e. teams other than Butler and Gonzaga winning their conference tournaments).

Question #6: "50/50"
Pick an ACC and a Big Ten team - out of each pairing - who you favor as being more likely to secure an at-large birth: Big Ten (Penn State or Michigan) & ACC (Virginia Tech or Maryland).

In the Big Ten, I’d give the nod to Penn State, as they have defeated the 1^st and 3^rd best team in their conference on the road. In the ACC, I would select Virginia Tech by a very slim margin based on the same rationale. That said, much can change at the conference tournament.

***Bonus Question***
What did you answer for the poll (Chalmber is Chalmers, btw...thanks Clement) and why? Just a sentence or two will do.

A: This is a great question, because I was only able to eliminate three players (Chalmers, Brewer, Noah) from this list due to the composite strength of their respective teams. I went with Juan Dixon, because fans forget exactly how dominant he was in the final two minutes of a game. Any time that Maryland needed a play to either lead a spurt or to kill a crowd, Juan Dixon did it.

Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style

Yesterday, Clement posed a baker's half dozen worth of NCAA Tournament-related questions. Today, I will answer them. We are a logical bunch at PHSports.

Q: "The Other Tyler in Chapel Hill"
What does Tyler Zeller's return mean to North Carolina's rotation? Will he become a major factor or perhaps hinder the minutes of contributors off the bench? Is 5 regular season games and the ACC Tournament enough time for him to be prepared for major minutes come March Madness?
A: Immediately, Zeller's return gives Carolina its second big off of the bench and gives Roy Williams more options when crafting his lineups. Perhaps, he may hinder the minutes of other contributors off of the bench (e.g. Bobby Frasor, who has been excellent), but he plays a position of need. In two games before the injury, Zeller averaged 22.5 minutes; even if he is effective, expect him to play no more than 15-18 minutes when he has reached true game fitness.

Q: "Cinderella Arrives at MSG"
Which Big East "letdown" do you see more capable of making a legitimate run at MSG: Georgetown or Notre Dame?
A: Georgetown. They are the only team currently on the outside looking in who have adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the top 25. However, they are wildly inconsistent and lack poise in the final four minutes of games. I can also see their legs turn into jello if they get to play a third game in as many days. Detractors may say that Notre Dame has a better chance because they have the best player, can score, have a deeper bench and have stronger play at the point. One minor point: playing defense is optional at Notre Dame. Everyone saw the result against Louisville. We also saw result at Cincinnati and West Virginia.

Q: "Judgment Day"
Oklahoma may be the #1 team in the country next week. What else should we know about this besides "The Terminator" Blake Griffin?
A: Despite my unquestioned love for one Blake Griffin dating back to last winter, I am not as wild about this Oklahoma team as the pollsters are. The reason being that they eke out results against inferior competition when they should be throttling them. The key element in getting this team from a mid-grade Big XII team to a national contender has been the presence of freshman guard, who averages more than 14 points per game and shoots nearly 50% from the field. Senior point guard Austin Johnson has improved his play every year, and this is a testament to head coach Jeff Capel.

Q: "Hokie Hotline"
Is there anyone in college basketball who has a more murderous road ahead than "bubbly" Virginia Tech (home and away w/ Florida State, Duke, UNC, and @Clemson)?
A: No. They are in serious trouble. Even without Jeff Allen, there is no excuse for losing to UVa. Urgency requires results. They need one to two players excluding their big three to make steady scoring contributions on a regular basis if they want to win two of these games.

Q: "Bracketbusters Galore"
Should Stephen Curry play in the bracketbuster game? Is it worth it to risk further injury with such a crucial matchup against Butler?
A: If he is good to go, then yes, he should play. It's not worth it to risk injury, which would say bye-bye to their at-large hopes even with a victory. This win would not even be Davidson's best win, because they won a neutral court against West Virginia.

Q: "Revenge of 2008???"
Which team is a more dangerous matchup come March Madness: Memphis or Kansas?
A: Very tough question (because both teams have a go-to guy), but I'll go with Memphis. Both are excellent defensive teams, but Memphis is the best nationally, and the team has undergone a metamorphosis since Tyreke Evans moved to the point. Kansas may be more well-rounded as a team.

***Bonus Question***
Let's be geeks for a moment. If you could have any starting 5 (plus a 6th man) in the country - without the following 5 - who would it be? You might consider matching up against this squad.
C - Hasheem Thabeet [Connecticut]
PF - Tyler Hansbrough [North Carolina]
SF - Blake Griffin [Oklahoma] (we know it's a stretch, but Blake will excel at any forward spot)
SG - Stephen Curry [G, Davidson]
PG - Ty Lawson [North Carolina]
6th Man: James Harden [SG, Arizona State]

A: No matter who I choose, my team will be undersized. Therefore, I am going with talent, versatility and defense (sorry, no 'Gody). We also want to make this a full-court game.

C - DeJaun Blair [Pittsburgh]
PF - Dante Cunningham [Villanova] (I really badly wanted to go with Sam Young, but he's only 215 pounds)
SF - Terrence Williams [Louisville]
SG - Jodie Meeks [Kentucky]
PG - Darren Collison [UCLA]
6th Man: Jerel McNeal [SG, Marquette]

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 9, 2009

For the third straight set of projections, UConn tops the charts. This pick was solidified by exemplary defense as well as two subtractions from the UNC roster (Marcus Ginyard ruled out by injury and Will Graves suspended for reasons that Roy Williams decided not to elaborate).

Though they have only one loss (to Arkansas), Oklahoma remains on the 2-line. Due to a matchup conflict, I placed them in the 6^th overall spot, though we project them to be higher than Louisville, who greeted February with a setback on Monday and an uninspiring performance on Sunday.

In terms of whose stock rose, look no further than the Tigers of Memphis and Missouri.

* I expected Memphis to be competitive against Gonzaga, but I did not expect to punish and demoralize the Bulldogs. John Calipari's management of Tyreke Evans - who came in with a selfish tag and is suddenly one of the best floor generals in the country since his move to the point – is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration on its face.

* As for Missouri, they are living up to their gaudy eye test metrics (top 25 national rating in offensive and defensive efficiency). Because they are now the 3^rd team in the Big XII, they will be the hunted and will not catch teams off guard.

Meanwhile, stock is plummeting in Austin, Lafayette, Las Vegas and State College.

* On the heels of three consecutive conference losses to teams not named Oklahoma or Kansas, Texas is in the midst of an identity crisis and it is due in part to being banged up and not having an NBA-caliber point guard in the backcourt. However, this is why Rick Barnes gets paid the big bucks. He will have this team turned around, though it may not be immediate.

* While I do not think Robbie Hummel is the best player for the Boilermakers, his absence has been felt in two losses this week. If he remains out, expect more of the same. The beneficiaries of this loss will no doubt be Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota, who are all battling for a 'protected' seed (i.e. 4 seed or better).

* UNLV is playing awful. When you lose close games, the finger will undoubtedly be in the direction of either the best player or the point guard. In this case, it's the same player. Yeah, I'm calling you out Wink Adams. Another week like this and my stretch of a Mountain West championship becomes no more. Utah is starting to normalize.

* As highlighted by other folks, in a week that Penn State needed a split, the Nittany Lions came out empty-handed and they have three halves of utter futility to thank for it. After winning unexpectedly in East Lansing, Penn State tanked against fellow bubble teams with back-to-back double-digit losses. That's toxic for a resume and I cannot emphasize that enough.

Moving down to the last four in, I went in with the notion that I am choosing the best 34 at-large teams. Miami-FL may finish 7-9 in the ACC and may garner serious at-large consideration, especially if Kentucky (who they defeated at Rupp Arena) rights the ship and Ohio State (who they would have beaten had Jack McClinton not been wrongfully ejected) continues to play well. In the end, it came down to Arizona and Kansas State. While I think that it is slightly irresponsible to have six from the PAC 10, Arizona has a better resume than Kansas State.

On a final note, Georgetown, who was a protected seed, is out of the field. The tipping point was an overtime loss against Cincinnati, which I happened to attend. If the Hoyas can go 8-10 in the Big East given their tougher than average schedule with a semifinal run at Madison Square Garden, they carry a strong argument for an at-large bid. At this point, however, it is unrealistic to see Georgetown win four of their last seven and win at least two at MSG.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)

2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest

3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Clemson, UCLA

4: Marquette, Xavier (A-10), Kansas, Ohio State

5: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, Illinois, Purdue

6: Minnesota, Washington, Gonzaga (WCC), Missouri

7: Arizona State, Florida State, West Virginia, Texas

8: Tennessee (SEC), Davidson (Southern), California, Florida

9: Boston College, Dayton, Virginia Tech, UNLV (MWC)

10: Utah State (WAC), LSU, USC, Utah

11: Cincinnati, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Miami-FL

12: Siena (Metro Atlantic), BYU, Kentucky, Arizona

13: Creighton (MVC), VCU (CAA), Buffalo (MAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

14: Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit), Vermont (America East), Cornell (Ivy)

15: VMI (Big South), American (Patriot), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Wisconsin, BYU, Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Creighton, Tennessee-Martin

OUT: Penn State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Providence, Austin Peay

Last Four In: Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arizona

Last Four Out: Kansas State, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Michigan

Next Four Out: Penn State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Nebraska

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12

Pac-10: 6/10

Big East: 8/16

Big Ten: 6/11

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

Mountain West: 3/9

A-10: 2/14

Final Four Preview and A Week in Review

Tonight, the culmination of over 60 NCAA tournament games ensues as the top four teams in the nation face off in what is a historical first. More importantly, expect absolutely no teams to be just smitten with making it to San Antonio and forget to show up. Of course, here is one item concerning each team:

• If Memphis is going to play like they did last week in Houston, can they just begin cutting down the nets at halftime of their game and forget the hoopla? During the course of the week, I used the words "Joey Dorsey" and "intelligent player" in the same clause of a sentence. That's saying something.
• Is the third time a charm for UCLA in the Final Four? The last two times, they had to face the mighty Gators, and this time, they have Kevin Love, who is a proven inside threat.
• Will National Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough succumb to the hype or expect whistles to be blown just because he is who he is? Cynical as that statement may be, an unfulfilled expectation of assistance has been a bitter pill to swallow deep in the tournament for many of the nation's finest.
• Now that the monkey is officially off of his back, how will Bill Self motivate his Jayhawks to defeat Carolina?

For a second, let's take a small break from the Final Four to discuss the Week in Review.

• First and foremost, the Lopez twins are leaving Stanford and they ain't comin' back. You probably didn't hear it here first, but wouldn't it be something if the Memphis Grizzlies selected Brook with the first pick and traded up (they have a stash of future 1st-round pick and young, cheap talent) to select Robin?
• Staying in Palo Alto ... well, sorta. Okay, not so much. After 18 years at Stanford and a failed stint in the NBA, Mike Montgomery is off to Berkeley to coach the Golden Bears. For those just joining us or those of us on the East Coast who could care less about West Coast rivalries, this is huge. Montgomery and Trent Johnson will embrace at half court, but much more love for the former Stanford head coach cannot be guaranteed. It won't be smooth sailing for Montgomery, especially if Ryan Andersen signs with an agent.
• Indiana filled its coaching vacancy by turning to Marquette head coach Tom Crean (AKA "The Stockbroker" - credit: Matt Carroll). Though I hate it when coaches do not properly inform their teams when leaving, I am happy for Crean who may have plateaued at Marquette after 9 years at the school, where he raised graduation rates and had an impact on the hardwood. Nevertheless, work starts immediately for Crean, who must act quickly to deal with two recently dismissed players and recruits who had commitments in place before Kelvin Sampson's forced resignation.
• And in other news, Providence continues its head coaching search because Coach L is sticking with the Patriots. In all honesty, 60% of me thought he was a goner.

Ok, let's return to our regularly scheduled programming.

National Semifinal #1: UCLA vs. Memphis

KEY PLAYERS: Let's keep this short and sweet. UCLA absolutely needs to have production on the interior at both ends of the floor. That means Kevin Love must meet or surpass his season averages in scoring and rebounding, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute must disrupt the fluidity of Memphis's inside play. Expect Ben Howland to insert Lorenzo Mata-Real, Alfred Aboya and James Keefe for the sake of using 15 fouls to keep the Tigers honest ... at the charity stripe. As for Memphis, they will need to dictate the tempo. As Derrick Rose dominated DJ Augustin in the South Regional Final, he must do similar to another diminuitive guard, Darren Collison. Meanwhile, as Clement has pointed out regularly, CDR has to slash in order to draw fouls and create easy shots for Dorsey, Dozier and Taggart (almost sounds like "The Law Firm").

MOMENT OF TRUTH: TEMPO. At each of the ten-minute intervals, fans will be able to determine which team will dictate the pace of this game. If it's quick, Memphis has a decided advantage and the bodies minus Andre Allen, but even with that, do not count out UCLA. If it's slow, methodical and unappealing to the eye, Ben Howland probably will have a sheepish grin with good reason. Of course, there's also the 'F' word. Yes, free throws. There you go. No more on that.

THE WINNER WILL ...

• Have less turnovers (shocker!)
• Have higher backcourt scoring

PREDICTION: UCLA wins 65-61.

National Semifinal #2: UNC vs. Kansas

KEY PLAYERS: Let's get this one out there. Tyler Hansbrough is very good and will get his points this evening (how many shots will it take though?). He is the best player in this contest, though Kansas's Darrell Arthur may be a stronger professional prospect. The key matchup has to be the war between Mario Chalmers and Ty Lawson. Chalmers has an advantage because he is 100% healthy and will be able to play more minutes if he has to. Additionally, when Chalmers goes out, Sherron Collins will enter the game, and he may be the only player in the NCAA who can outrun both Lawson and Collison. The other matchup of interest will be Brandon Rush versus Wayne Ellington. Though Rush may focus his attention to Danny Green when the latter comes off the bench early in the first half, both Rush and Ellington are dynamic players who can create shots for themselves and can find open teammates. Lastly, the combos of Deon Thompson/Alex Stepheson and Darnell Jackson/Sasha Kaun serve as the X-Factor in this game. Whichever combination can be effective and stay out of early foul trouble may decide this one.

MOMENT OF TRUTH: Since both teams have the propensity to go on sustained runs and can score points in bunches, the player reactions (e.g. body language) and adjustments (e.g. change in defensive assignments) will decide this game. If Carolina goes up early, will Kansas resort to a four-guard lineup and sacrifice physicality and rebounding for speed, shooting and the ability to cause turnovers. Given the few times that Carolina has been down in games with Ty Lawson healthy enough to play, will Roy Williams be able to ensure that the heads of Hansbrough and Green stay in the game if a Kansas lead is sustained for a long period of time?

THE WINNER WILL ...

• Give kudos to its coaching staff who won the 'X's and 'O's battle.
• Have more offensive rebounds and second-chance points.

PREDICTION: UNC wins 83-76

Saturday Night Live...Tournament Talk

...South Region...
#2. Memphis vs. #1. Ohio State [aka And 1 Mix-Tape Team vs. More than just Greg Oden's Team]

A track meet to say the very least, Coach Calipari's Tigers gave Matta's Buckeyes just about everything they could handle for 34 minutes. During the final six minutes of action, the Buckeyes all but ran the Tigers out of the gym defeating second-seed Memphis 92-76. All four number one seeds still have the potential to match up in Atlanta.

Despite early foul trouble for 7-footer freshman phenom Greg Oden (nothing new in this tournament thus far), Mike Conley Jr./Ron Lewis/DaQuean Cook kept the Ohio State University within punching distance of the athletic, speedy Tigers. Despite lights-out first-half three point shooting (7-10 for the Tigers), foul trouble plagued them down the stretch. Between Andre Allen's (who played quite poorly) and injured (or so we were told) Chris Douglas-Roberts' 5 fouls apiece, the Tigers lacked the slashing and kick-out ability to find consistent shooting down the stretch. 4th-year senior Jeremy Hunt was impressive from the field, 26 points, but lacked enough scoring counterparts to take down the sharp-shooting Buckeyes.

When Oden was in, he was downright dominant. 17 points, 9 rebounds, and a key 3-point play were just the highlights of another impressive performance from the oft-heralded freshman. Returning with four fouls mid-way through the second-half, Oden help spark a key 20-8 run that allowed the Buckeyes to assume a commanding double-digit lead.

Hitting their final sixteen free throws was only icing on the cake for the Buckeyes, reaching their first Final Four since the Michael Redd-led 1999 team. Ironically enough, that team's appearance has been erased from the records due to violations. With this Buckeye team locked into one of the spot's in Atlanta, we will be able to see one of the best freshman trios in recent memory with Oden/Conley Jr./Cook. Only question that remains is who will they be matched up against???

...West Region...
#2. UCLA vs. #1. Kansas [aka Afflalo/Shipp are TWINS vs. Runnin and Gunnin Jayhawks]

One of the more interesting defensive-minded matchups of the entire tournament thus far (nearly a combined 30 steals), the Bruins and Jayhawks battled to the very end for the second spot in the 2007 Final Four. Despite a torrid start, Kansas rarely had a string a successive offensive possessions. Fortunately for Bill Self's squad, their defense was up to the challenge of the UCLA motion offense. At least during the first-half...

UCLA, often labeled as lacking offensive firepower, hit countless key shots late extremely late in the shot clock. Whether it was Afflalo or Collison, the Bruins seemed to have little trouble hitting daggers from beyond the three-point line despite being covered heavily by Jayhawk defenders. Extending their lead from 4 (half) to 11 early in the second half, the Jayhawks could never pull any closer than 5 for the rest of the game.

The 68-55 UCLA victory over Kansas was led throughout unsurprisingly by their savvy backcourt duo of Pac-10 Player of the Year Arron Affalo (24 points) and this year's best surprise out West Darren Collison (14 points and four clutch late free throws). Shooting 53% from the field was a nice surprise, yet in the end it comes as no surprise that UCLA was anchored by Howland's typical suffocating perimeter defense. It's no surprise many experts, including yours truly, believe that Coach Ben Howland has his Bruins playing better than last year's National-Runner Up Squad. Perhaps a re-match with Florida is only a week away (the Gators match up with 3-seed Oregon tomorrow afternoon).

The typical 18 points from Brandon Rush paced Kansas; however, Julian Wright (only 8 points) was a shred of his usual self. Kansas was limited inside the paint throughout the game, lacked consistent outside shooting, and often began pushing the ball in-and-out during their possessions until the final 10-12 seconds of the shot clock. Despite avoiding the first-round upset that plagued them in the previous two years (remember Bucknell and Bradley?), the Jayhawks have to be disappointed in not reaching the Final Four with perhaps the nation's deepest and most talented lineup.

Nevertheless, the Bruins march on and have impressively moved on from the loss of All-American guard Jordan Farmar to make a return trip to the Final Four in 2007.

UNC/Georgetown & Florida/Oregon tomorrow. Let's see if the chalk prevails...

Chalk Full of ... Chalk

Last night's games consisted of three great ones totaling a five-point difference and a blowout ... of 9 points. The first two games are exactly why everyone should (if possible) purchase the DirecTV package or watch the game at a bar with similar amenities. Here are some quick hits on the last night's games.

Kansas 61 Southern Illinois 58
Dear Big Ten Conference: When you argue that your teams play a grinding style due to great defense, both of these teams probably think that you're using the term "great" too liberally. Kansas didn't exactly take care of business and this biased guy thinks they benefited from some zebra love. In the first half, a no-call on a shot clock violation led to two points for the Jayhawks. In the second half, defensive goaltending was not called on a play where Jamal Tatum was fouled. There was also a shot clock violation called against the Salukis in which you can see (in slow motion) the change in trajectory after Mullins' three-pointer shaved the rim. Of course, Matt Shaw missed a gimmie layup in the last three minutes and Kansas shot 60% for the game. Credit must go to Russell Robinson who did a stellar defensive job all night. The Jayhawks go on to face the UCLA Bruins on Saturday.

UCLA 64 Pittsburgh 55
This game was as boring as the scoreline looks. The game was a three-possession battle for the majority of the game and whenever Pittsburgh, UCLA had an answer and vice versa. Classic Panther non-execution in big games and Aaron Gray was inconsistent as we hinted in our preview. Levon Kendall was underutilized and struggled when he was. Afflalo is still struggling, but he's nailing everything at the line. Pitt still lacks that go-to guard who they can rely on late in games. On Saturday, UCLA absolutely needs Josh Shipp and Michael Roll to nail jump shots.

Memphis 65 Texas A&M 64
Last Saturday, Texas A&M defeated Louisville in what was considered a road game by many in the know. Last night, Memphis got a win in similar unfriendly circumstances and credit must go to Calipari for motivating his players, because the media - real and fake - have lampooned the Tigers for chalking up easy wins in Conference USA. Douglas-Roberts did not show any signs of being injured and the Tigers at all times knew that they belonged in this game and in the Elite 8. When a 64% free throw shooter knocks two down cold with 3.1 seconds remaining to take a one-point lead, you know this team has a higher calling. On a side note, Acie Law IV was amazing this year and is the only guy who is capable of winning the Naismith Award not named Durant.

Ohio State 85 Tennessee 84
If you're a Vols fan, you're probably on the top of a building right now. Ohio State has almost as many lives as Jack Bauer. Okay, maybe not that many. A 20-point lead is relative. If Tennessee is up 20 on you, you have a chance to come back if you are a very good team. If Southern Illinois is up 20 on you, you're done like Nextel. The Vols' 49-point first half explosion was catalyzed by spectacular outside shooting and getting Oden and Conley Jr. into foul trouble. Nevertheless, Ohio State's team defense, which limited Tennessee to four two-point baskets, got them back into the game almost immediately in the second half. When the day is over, you can't forget about the efforts of OSU's Ron Lewis and Tennessee's Chris Lofton, who seemed to trade three-pointers late in the game. Missed free throws (8-for-17) and potential complacency may be on Bruce Pearl's mind for the next few taxing months.