Culmination of March Madness…in April: Championship Night

Tonight is the zenith of the college basketball season. Despite the Women’s Championship Game taking place tomorrow night, in all reality, this is the nexus of the college basketball universe.

Four teams arrived in San Antonio, with UCLA & UNC both bowing out much earlier than their fans, as well as more than a few experts, had anticipated.

Is this THE top moment from the 2008 Final Four? Just maybe...
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Fortunately, an all #1-seed Final Four leaves us with two very enticing details:
1) The National Champion must defeat two fellow #1-seeds.
2) Memphis or Kansas will be a highly deserving champion.

No flukes this season. The best team will walk away national champs. Or, so we hope…

Before we dive head-first into tonight, let’s rewind back to Saturday night (as tough as that is for one of our writers) and give a few thoughts each on the national semifinal matchups.

Memphis defeated UCLA 78-63.

Derrick Rose & Robert Dozier must be chuckling that more than a few "experts" had them out well before title night.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

-Derrick Rose is as poised a freshman leader as Carmelo Anthony was in 2003 (Syracuse plug!).
-Joey Dorsey made up for the “David v. Goliath” debacle with Greg Oden and Ohio State last season.
-Ben Howland and the 3-time Final Four Bruins are slowly becoming the new Buffalo Bills. Last night’s loss had to be their most painful.

Kansas defeated North Carolina 84-68.

Bill Self, finally, got over a real hump (sorry, Davidson) in the tournament.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

-Once Kansas went up 40-12, they were as out of control (with countless justifiable offensive fouls) as I’ve ever seen a team with a 28-point lead.
-Wayne Ellington won’t be a factor in the NBA. Yeah, Clement said it.
-Kansas won’t have their so-called “revenge” on Carolina-born Roy until they win a national championship…no matter who is in the way.

As for tonight, let’s do this!

[38-1] Memphis vs. [36-3] Kansas

Heady play, on both sides of the ball, will be key for Sherron Collins (as well as any other player on the court Monday night).

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

KEY PLAYERS:

It’s obvious to even the weakest of analysts that both teams have an extreme amount of depth. As painful as the injury to Kansas senior Rodrick Stewart was to watch, it is not as pivotal as the suspension of Memphis’s Andre Allen. While I felt Allen’s chucking would outweigh his defense against the Bruins, I’m not so sure Calipari won’t miss his defensive prowess against the four talented guards of Kansas [Chalmers, Rush, Robinson & Collins]. As for players actually in the game, Memphis will rely on four players doing what they do best: Derrick Rose dominating the ball, CDR making plays in and out of the lane, Joey Dorsey banging and bruising in the paint and Antonio Anderson locking defenders down on the perimeter. Want a wild card? Robert Dozier, despite looking shaky with the ball outside the paint on Saturday night, might need to pull a double-double (and then some) against the big, bruising and athletic Kansas big men.

As for the aforementioned Rock Chalkers, Bill Self has four guards that make plays on both sides of the ball throughout the game. However, more responsible for Kansas’s early 28-point lead was their big men. In fact, it wasn’t even the big men you might first expect (Arthur, Kaun & Jackson). Six first-half points and rebounds from freshman reserve Cole Aldrich were indispensable in spelling foul trouble and tired legs for the Jayhawks. Even more important was his ability to avoid illegal screen calls and emphatically denying several Tar Heel interior attempts. While Kansas will require a total team effort to run ’n’ gun with the Tigers, the Jayhawks need to put Dorsey, Dozier & Taggart where they can hurt Bill Self’s crew the least: on the bench. Forcing Dorsey into tough double-teams on offense and attacking him on his weak-side on defense are vital for Kansas to control the paint and eventually, the closing moments.

Here’s one final nugget to consider. What do Drew Neitzel, DJ Augustin and Darren Collison? All three are small guards and all were dominated by Memphis. Though Kansas’s backcourt quartet is strong physically, Brandon Rush is the only to be taller than 6’1”. Perhaps, Derrick Rose’s fondness for sweets may prevent him from playing at his best.

Coach Calipari's Tigers own a new record for 38 wins in a season. They won't matter without win number 39.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

MOMENT OF TRUTH:
The first six minutes of this game are likely to be a track meet. Outside of strict officiating, I find it hard to believe the game will reach the first TV timeout before the 14-minute mark. Baskets will be traded and momentum will be established. The problem is: Will either team be able to build an early double-digit lead OR will neither team be able to pull away early and establish what we all want…a shootout from start to finish.

THE WINNER WILL …
-Avoid foul trouble in the closing four minutes of the first half and opening four minutes of the second half.
-Limit their shots from the three-point line (higher percentage will easily take out more attempts in this matchup).
-Be the best team in college basketball this season. Period.

PREDICTIONS:

[Paymon] Memphis wins 76-68
MVP: Chris Douglas-Roberts

[Clement] Kansas wins 90-89 [OT]
MOP: Brandon Rush

Could Memphis center Joey Dorsey be an MOP candidate without scoring a meaningul basket. YES!
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Enjoy tonight!

An Unbiased Elite Eight PREVIEW [Sunday Edition]

Pay and I have decided to stick with what works, revisiting last year’s Elite Eight format we enjoyed so much, as we deliver your Unofficial Unbiased Preview to the Elite Eight.

The Saturday matchups (UCLA/Xavier & UNC/Louisville) got their due yesterday.

Don’t worry. We aren’t afraid to tick off a few coaches, call out non-professional athletes, or let our gut reactions – not our corporate sponsors or contacts – decide our analysis and perhaps, a prediction or two.

Without further banter, let’s roll!

…games are in order of time- slot (2pm and 5pm respectively)…

South Regional Final: #1. Memphis vs. #3. Texas [aka “Free Throws Don’t Matter vs. Isn’t this game in TEXAS!?!?”]

Never underestimate the impact of a Naismith-finalist in games such as these.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Key Players
Memphis – Derrick Rose v. DJ Augustin will headline the night. In fact, I’m going to say that again just to give the phenomenal PGs (freshman and sophomore, respectively) enough credit. However, the key player on the Tigers roster I am targeting is All-American and Naismith finalist Chris Douglas-Roberts. The stabilizing force for Calipari’s bunch, CDR can get to the line at-will (11-for-12 against the Spartans) and his hot hand is the worst possible news for any opponent. His size and defensive prowess make him a force on both sides of the court as well.

Texas – Here’s my aforementioned promised second mentioning of the important of Rose v. Augustin (happy?). While Pay might justifiably bring up a guy named Atchley, I’m focusing on the best big man Texas has, Damion James. Arguably Texas’s most consistent player through three tournament games, James will have to earn rough baskets in the blocks and hit open jumpers for the Longhorns to withstand the force and fury of the Memphis attack. Might I also add that both Dorsey and Dozier can be prone to early foul trouble. Despite being a sophomore, James would be wise to exploit that early and often.

Moment of Truth
After AJ Abrams’s first five shots, whenever they take place, Texas will likely have a preview of the night their senior perimeter shooter is going to have. Whether he’s taking threes off of a screen or taking a runner near the free-throw line, it’s imperative how Abrams starts (and therefore finishes). Memphis locked Antonio Anderson on Drew Neitzel and gave him absolute fits; however, this matchup will be tougher on AA. I promise.

Key Stats
-Don’t worry, I’m not here to talk about Memphis and free throws, AGAIN. Let’s try this instead: 15-0 to close out the first-half en route to a 50-20 halftime lead, and 0-16 to allow Michigan State to claw the score back to a 17-point deficit. Embarrassing to say the least for Michigan State, an upset special against Memphis which a ton of the media embraced (good luck with that one). Just as important was Drew Neitzel not scoring until 1:47 left in the game. Good luck, AJ Abrams.

-Dexter Pittman (4, 6, & 2) and Clint Chapman (4, 2, 1), Texas’s big men reserves combined for 17 of the most stabilizing minutes Rick Barnes could have ever hoped for on Friday night. Both role players average six minutes per game, yet found new responsibilities once the Lopez twins surfaced in the opponent’s lineup. Job well done, men. Problem is: can they possibly do it again against such amazing athletic talent?

Interesting Facts
- Though Memphis’s struggles from the free throw line (59.8%) have been documented, Texas is not much better at 68.0%. In fact, among the regulars, only DJ Augustin and AJ Abrams shoot above that clip.

- Four of the five Texas starters shoot above 37% from 3-point range.

Pay’s Prediction: Texas wins 75-67
Clement’s Prediction: Texas wins 87-84 (OT)

Midwest Regional Final: #1. Kansas vs. #10. Davidson [aka “Bill Self: You can do this vs. Gus Johnson’s Praying to Scream Our Game-Winner as loud as he possible can”]

Any chance, win or lose, that Curry is already the MOP of the Midwest Region?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Note from Clement: CBS commentator Gus Johnson needs to learn the difference between excitement for an incredible play or team effort AND going out of his way to root for the underdog and Cinderella story at the expense of calling a fair, accurate game. [Only HIS writing is more over-the-top, ego-inflated, and ridiculously biased.]

Key Players
Kansas – It’s not fair how good Kansas is. In a tournament that has long been dominated by guard play, they have one of the nation’s best defenders (Mario Chalmers) and a dynamic guard with a flair for the unselfish (Brandon Rush). Additionally, there’s the less-heralded Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins, who may be the only guard quick enough to defeat Darren Collison or Ty Lawson in a race. Perceived as their only “weakness” prior to this season, Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson have been dominant in the blocks when they’ve needed to be and Sasha Kaun can take big defenders out for a 15-foot jumper.

Davidson – Let’s just get the two key players out of the way. Jason Richards and Stephen Curry must not only have repeat performances of their last three games, but they might even have to play better if they want the last two minutes of this game to be significant. In the trenches, Andrew Lovedale will have to body up with the Jayhawk quartet of Darnell Jackson, Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun and Cole Aldridge. Keeping the Davidson Final Four dream alive also requires the selfless contributions from Sander, Meno, Paulhus Gosselin and Rossiter that are almost never seen in box scores.

Moment of Truth
After the first prolonged Jayhawks run, will Stephen Curry begin to force shots if Jason Richards and Co. are ineffective? If Davidson can hold Kansas to less than 45% and/or force 15+ turnovers, they have a chance to defeat the dominant Jayhawks in a close game. In the end, Bob McKillop’s team will be four to five plays short of making a miraculous trip to the Final Four.

Key Stats
- 27 to 4. That may be one of the runs that Kansas has had in this tournament. It’s also Jason Richards’s assist-to-turnover ratio. Sick.

- Kansas shot over 50% from the field for the season and has done so in each of its three tournament games.

Interesting Facts
- December 21, 2007. That’s the last time Davidson lost.

- Kansas has a 5-3 record this season in games decided by single digits.

Pay’s Prediction: Kansas wins 83-72
Clement’s Prediction: Kansas wins 81-65

Final Four coverage will come fast and furious this week.

Unless you enjoy spoon-fed answers from the “networks”.

Saturday Night Live...Tournament Talk

...South Region...
#2. Memphis vs. #1. Ohio State [aka And 1 Mix-Tape Team vs. More than just Greg Oden's Team]

A track meet to say the very least, Coach Calipari's Tigers gave Matta's Buckeyes just about everything they could handle for 34 minutes. During the final six minutes of action, the Buckeyes all but ran the Tigers out of the gym defeating second-seed Memphis 92-76. All four number one seeds still have the potential to match up in Atlanta.

Despite early foul trouble for 7-footer freshman phenom Greg Oden (nothing new in this tournament thus far), Mike Conley Jr./Ron Lewis/DaQuean Cook kept the Ohio State University within punching distance of the athletic, speedy Tigers. Despite lights-out first-half three point shooting (7-10 for the Tigers), foul trouble plagued them down the stretch. Between Andre Allen's (who played quite poorly) and injured (or so we were told) Chris Douglas-Roberts' 5 fouls apiece, the Tigers lacked the slashing and kick-out ability to find consistent shooting down the stretch. 4th-year senior Jeremy Hunt was impressive from the field, 26 points, but lacked enough scoring counterparts to take down the sharp-shooting Buckeyes.

When Oden was in, he was downright dominant. 17 points, 9 rebounds, and a key 3-point play were just the highlights of another impressive performance from the oft-heralded freshman. Returning with four fouls mid-way through the second-half, Oden help spark a key 20-8 run that allowed the Buckeyes to assume a commanding double-digit lead.

Hitting their final sixteen free throws was only icing on the cake for the Buckeyes, reaching their first Final Four since the Michael Redd-led 1999 team. Ironically enough, that team's appearance has been erased from the records due to violations. With this Buckeye team locked into one of the spot's in Atlanta, we will be able to see one of the best freshman trios in recent memory with Oden/Conley Jr./Cook. Only question that remains is who will they be matched up against???

...West Region...
#2. UCLA vs. #1. Kansas [aka Afflalo/Shipp are TWINS vs. Runnin and Gunnin Jayhawks]

One of the more interesting defensive-minded matchups of the entire tournament thus far (nearly a combined 30 steals), the Bruins and Jayhawks battled to the very end for the second spot in the 2007 Final Four. Despite a torrid start, Kansas rarely had a string a successive offensive possessions. Fortunately for Bill Self's squad, their defense was up to the challenge of the UCLA motion offense. At least during the first-half...

UCLA, often labeled as lacking offensive firepower, hit countless key shots late extremely late in the shot clock. Whether it was Afflalo or Collison, the Bruins seemed to have little trouble hitting daggers from beyond the three-point line despite being covered heavily by Jayhawk defenders. Extending their lead from 4 (half) to 11 early in the second half, the Jayhawks could never pull any closer than 5 for the rest of the game.

The 68-55 UCLA victory over Kansas was led throughout unsurprisingly by their savvy backcourt duo of Pac-10 Player of the Year Arron Affalo (24 points) and this year's best surprise out West Darren Collison (14 points and four clutch late free throws). Shooting 53% from the field was a nice surprise, yet in the end it comes as no surprise that UCLA was anchored by Howland's typical suffocating perimeter defense. It's no surprise many experts, including yours truly, believe that Coach Ben Howland has his Bruins playing better than last year's National-Runner Up Squad. Perhaps a re-match with Florida is only a week away (the Gators match up with 3-seed Oregon tomorrow afternoon).

The typical 18 points from Brandon Rush paced Kansas; however, Julian Wright (only 8 points) was a shred of his usual self. Kansas was limited inside the paint throughout the game, lacked consistent outside shooting, and often began pushing the ball in-and-out during their possessions until the final 10-12 seconds of the shot clock. Despite avoiding the first-round upset that plagued them in the previous two years (remember Bucknell and Bradley?), the Jayhawks have to be disappointed in not reaching the Final Four with perhaps the nation's deepest and most talented lineup.

Nevertheless, the Bruins march on and have impressively moved on from the loss of All-American guard Jordan Farmar to make a return trip to the Final Four in 2007.

UNC/Georgetown & Florida/Oregon tomorrow. Let's see if the chalk prevails...