Monday, March 09, 2009

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 9, 2009

Let’s call this the best 34 at-large team edition. After agonizing over including an unprecedented 8th team from the Big Ten, I wilted and included Ohio State over Kansas State, who may earn an at-large bid without winning in the Big XII Tournament (likely versus Texas). Do I think that the Big Ten will carry 8 bids on Selection Sunday? Not really. However, for this last week, I am going to let the basketball do the talking. The week that just ended has been like reading tea leaves through a thick London fog.

Among the top seeds, Louisville replaced Duke on the 1 line. Why? Louisville won the Big East outright and finished 2-1 against the teams who have double byes in the Big East Tournament. It’s all about who you have beaten, and where and when you beat them. When you put that together, Louisville is a top 4 team. If one of the top 3 Big East teams do not make the semifinals and Michigan State or Wake Forest win their conference tournaments, then they may steal the final #1 seed.

Beyond determining the final at-large bids, Championship Week will have an immense say in seed lines 4 through 8, which is as settling as a bad hairpiece. At this juncture, I am projecting that 22 at-large bids have been locked up, leaving 12 bids for the taking. Among our last 12 in are 5 (count ‘em, 5) Big Ten teams! If Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State lose in succession coupled with a Notre Dame or a Georgetown making the Big East semis, then we may see as few as 5 teams in from the Big Ten. Stranger things have happened.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due To Seeding Conflicts?
Marquette

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Butler

If you have questions, comments, or uninhibited hatred, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, Butler (Horizon)
6: Marquette, California, Gonzaga, Texas
7: Tennessee (SEC), Arizona State, Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, St. Mary’s (WCC), Penn State
10: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Wisconsin
11: Michigan, UNLV (MWC), Creighton, Ohio State
12: Utah St. (WAC), Arizona, Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), VCU (CAA), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Weber State (Big Sky), Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit)
15: Charleston (Southern), Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy)
16: RADFORD(Big South), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Texas A&M, Michigan, Arizona, Northern Iowa, Binghamton, Charleston, Radford, Morehead State
OUT: Kansas State, Providence, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Davidson, Vermont, VMI, Tennessee-Martin

Last Four In: Creighton, Ohio State, Auburn, Arizona
Last Four Out: Kansas State, Providence, New Mexico, South Carolina
Next Four Out: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
West Coast: 2/9
MVC: 2/10
A-10: 2/14

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

You have had K-State in the next four out. last four in for awhile now. Most other brackets don't even have them near the first 4 out. Why do you like the resume?

DDH said...

There is no way that 3 of 4 #1 seeds will be from the Big East. It's inevitable, no matter how deserving/undeserving they might be, the conference tourney will surely knock one of them from the top -- and replace them with either Memphis or Michigan State. Don't drink the Joe Lunardi kool-aid.

Paymon said...

I like Kansas State because of the way they've played in their last 12 real games (9-3 excluding NC Central), including a split versus Missouri and away wins against Texas and Texas A&M. In the end, their OOC performances may do them in.

On the Big East, it may be inevitable for the conference to have three #1 seeds, but it's not unprecedented. If all three make the semis and Michigan State or Wake does not win their conference tournaments, then it's extremely possible.

Contrary to all of the Memphis #1 seed talk, they do not deserve it. Their best win is at Gonzaga. Each of their contemporaries vying for a #1 seed have at least three wins of greater or equal value.

Anonymous said...

George Mason to the NIT!

Anonymous said...

Now that St. Mary's lost by a ton, are they still in? Does Gonzaga have a chance at a 4 seed?

Clement said...

George Mason played tough and lost to a VCU team who played an A+ game.

Pay and I discussed this and he had the outcome far more than I did. While neither of us saw a blowout, Eric Maynor was clearly the best player on the court. We agreed on that, to say the very least.

While I felt Mason had the top starting 5 in the CAA, I knew that if Larry Sanders stayed out of foul trouble and VCU avoided a brutal start, I felt they would not lose.

Mason missed some gimmes and VCU made plenty of timely shots. Sanders was a force of nature (Diesel-like).

Dre Smith showed a ton of heart as well. Circa-Ray Allen in 1995, I thought.

The refs did a good job, both coaches are classy, and Mason and VCU represented the CAA well.

With UNC-W over USC/barely losing to (national runner-up) Indiana, Mason's historic Final Four run, and Maynor's shot on Duke in recent memory (don't forget Drew Nicolas' prayer beat UNC-W and George Evans' leg didn't touch the ball against the Twerps either)...the CAA is for real.

Yet, it's buried behind highlights on ESPNEWS for Magic/Pistons, Hawks/Hornets, and more Pay-Rod hip stuff.

Meanwhile, it gets buried behind SoCon (minus Curry) and Sienna/Niagara with Sportscenter highlights.

Doug Gotlieb tried to say a few things. Tom Brennan - a complete moron - ruined it by bringing up some Vermont-crap.

Bastard.

One word: BS.
Or is that two?

Either way...let's go V-C-U!!!

Clement said...

St. Mary's didn't just lose...they were pummeled.

Patty Mills looked horrific - in highlights, at least - shooting 2 for 16.

It wasn't just a bad game.

That technical foul-rule was idiotic.

Remember they have that fluky (or is it flukey) make-up game they have against Eastern Washington Polytechnic State College University Southwest A&T on Wednesday.

My predictions? Mills takes 35 shots and the Gaels win by 25+.

Oh yeah, Pay...how about an old fashioned in/out?

St. Mary's? Creighton? Davidson?

We love ya bro!

Paymon said...

If Mason gets invited to the NIT, then that'd be awesome. I'm gutted by the way they executed, I have not been a critic of their effort all year long. It'll be good for Cornelius, Pearson and Morrison.

Good question. The 4 seeds are for the taking and if teams to continue to flounder, Gonzaga can sneak into a 4 seed the same way that Memphis might slip onto the 2 line.

As of tonight, St. Mary's is in. While I don't have a NCAA Tournament program that falsely calculates odds, 90% of me thinks they're in despite how rusty Patty Mills is. When the dust settles, St. Mary's is likely looking a 10 through 12 seed.

Paymon said...

St. Mary's - IN
Creighton - IN by a thread (one of their best wins was hurt by VCU's categorical domination of Mason)
Davidson - IN ... the NIT

Anonymous said...

You shouldn't be so sure about St. Mary's. What if they play bad against E. Washington?

Paymon said...

If they lose against E. Washington, they are out.

If Patty Mills gets injured and cannot play, they are out.

If they take care of business, they should be in.