NCAA Tournament Performance (by conference) - From 16 to 4

**Before I get into the meat of this post, I found this glorious clip on YouTube. All Madden ’92 lovers will have nostalgia tingling down their spine. Check it out.**

In the first weekend, the chalk held for the most part. In the second weekend, the chalk held almost entirely. The only exceptions were not even upsets with UCLA defeating Kansas (in California, mind you) and Georgetown upending North Carolina in overtime. With regard to UCLA’s win in California, I think they would’ve won on any court on Saturday night, save Phog Allen. The stronger in-game tacticians won in both of those games.

Conference (in order by RPI rank)	Actual Record	Exp. Record	Actual vs. Exp. Diff.	Sweet 16 teams	Elite 8 Teams	Final Four Teams
ACC	7-7	11-6	-2.5	1	1	0
SEC	9-4	7-4	+1.0	3	1	1
Pac-10	10-5	9-6	+1.0	3	2	1
Big Ten	8-5	8-5	0.0	1	1	1
Big East	7-5	8-6	0.0*	2	1	1
Missouri Valley	2-2	2-2	0	1	0	0
Big XII	6-4	8-3	-1.5	2	1	0
Mountain West	2-2	2-2	0.0	1	0	0
Western Athletic	1-2	1-2	0	0	0	0
Atlantic-10	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0
Horizon	2-2	1-2	+0.5	1	0	0
Colonial	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0

* higher winning percentage for actual record

The chart above demonstrates the poor performance by the ACC relative to their regular season accolades. To send the most teams (7) and only send one to the Sweet 16 is weak. This marks the second straight year in which the ACC had a 1-seed that failed to make it to the Final Four.

For the second straight year, the SEC outperforms its expectations, but not quite like last year. Had Vanderbilt and Tennessee won games that they should have, that would’ve meant that half of the SEC East was in the Elite 8. That’s crazy good. Does it beg the question of including Georgia over Arkansas? Not at all. Georgia wasn’t the same team after losing one of its leading scorers.

The story though should be the Pac-10, who was the only to send two teams to the Elite 8. Given the season previews from real media outlets that have access to first-hand information, I expected 3-4 bids this season. They’re also the perennial doormat during the NCAA tournament and a constant focus of criticism whenever a representative (usually Stanford) falls as a 1-seed during the first weekend. In a 10-team league, five teams were no-doubters and only one came into question (Stanford) when it came to Selection Sunday. UCLA and Oregon took care of business while USC was 1-2 contributors away from fending off Carolina in the round of 16.

As for the Final 4, I had Texas A&M instead of Ohio State, so I’d like to thank Memphis for playing its best game in two years in the Sweet 16 matchup. I’m obligated to picking Georgetown versus Florida, because that’s what I had in my bracket.

Given the circumstances, I can see UCLA defeat Florida, because the Gators have needed excellent long distance shooting to get where they are right now. Florida has had a lot of unforced errors on offense. If the Bruins stick to their guns and play stellar perimeter defense, annoy the big men, and score points, then I like their chances of playing on Monday.

With little margin for error, the Ohio State/Georgetown game is a pick’em. I’ve characterized the Buckeyes as lucky all tournament long, but they’re obviously talented, well-coached and don’t give up when they’re down. They also just played their most complete offensive game of the season. Let’s just say that it won’t be a repeat performance. Who will stop Jeff Green? Is Cook, Hunter, or Lighty up to the challenge? At this point, Jeff Green may be the most lethal player in the tournament because of his ability to affect games in so many different ways, even when he’s not scoring points.