Falling, Falling, Falling, Falling: Week 3 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

No running commentary today. A new column pops up tomorrow, a Monday-edition - each and every week - of InClement Weather. See you then for NFL reactions and a Monday Night predictions (or two)...

Much like the opening two titles to this weekly column (Lightning in a Bottle, I’d Like To Touch Jennifer’s Body), we’re sticking with the nonsensical title route.

You know you like it…or you soon will.

No need to explain. It’s time for 10 Questions of the Week…

Seriously, do I even need to formally address my interest around this topic?
Credit: SportsJonez.com

1) Is everyone a little too hysterical over the early success of both Rex Ryan’s defense and Mark Sanchez?
2) Is Joe Flacco really this effective in the Raven offense?
3) How legit are these Mike Singletary-inspired San Francisco 49ers?
4) Is Frank Gore a legitimate threat to rush for more yards than Adrian Peterson this season?
5) Dustin Keller, Zach Miller, or John Carlson: which young tight end has the brightest future?
6) Which rookie head coach gets a W first: Raheem Morris or Todd Haley?
7) How many catches, no less TDs, do you have TO dropping this week?
8) Will the Skins struggle with the Lions…or lay a beatdown upon the Motor City’s “finest”?
9) Which backup QB might see non-injury or blowout-related snaps first: Derek Anderson or the field?
10) Is Michael Crabtree doing serious damage to his playing career by sitting out his entire rookie campaign?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 5-1 (That’s right. I love me some road dogs. Only Carolina…barely…cost me perfection.)
Season Total: 7-4 (We’re going to make a serious push next week to establish a solid winning mark. As if you care…)
Upset Special: 2-0 (I found 2 I LOVED and this is where the money was to be made last weekend.)
Survivor Selection: 2-0 (Ask me why I idiotically didn’t make the same selection in my actual survivor league. Ask me!)

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+6.5)
I took the Rams last week against the Skins and cashed big. As for this week, the Packer offense is going to wake up and win by at least a TD. Sometimes your picks don’t make much sense…

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Hasselbeck’s injury is serious. Seattle’s homefield advantage isn’t any longer. Look for Matt Forte to be the difference in this game as the Bears move to 2-1.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
Vegas knows something. I’m just sayin’. Take the Pats and avoid watching this game if you have money on it. Otherwise…enjoy!!!

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
This number was even bigger at the beginning of the week. Seriously. Dallas is 1-1 and not this many points better – even at home – than the 0-2 Panthers. While I’m taking Dallas for the W, this is waaaay too many points to leave hanging out there in the wind.

Upset Special #1
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5)
If only this game were at 1pm and in Miami…I’d take the Phins in a heartbeat. I don’t know what the Chargers are, but I do know they’re not Super Bowl contenders. I’m taking the Phins to keep it close and potentially even get the outright W. They started 0-2 last year and beat the Patriots on their way to 11-5. I’m not calling 11 wins, but I am calling an avoidance of 0-3.

Upset Special #2
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (-3)
It’s not as easy as it looks, as Arizona manned up a lot last week. However, it was at Jacksonville and a Jack Del Rio-coached team. While I expect fireworks from both offense, the numbers against Indy’s Pass D are pretty surprising (only 6 passing TDs allowed all of last season). While Warner and Fitz can rock that trend, I’m taking Manning to be magical again in primetime.

…Survivor Selection… [Gone: New England & Minnesota]
Baltimore is going to WAX Cleveland at home this weekend. If you need an explanation as to why, you don't watch enough football.

Fantasy Studs and Duds

Am I big on Manningham this weekend? Not so much...
Credit: SBNation.com

…Last Week… [5 out of 8 correct…11 out of 19 this season correct]

Correct = Donald Driver (stud…and I sat him), Darren Sproles (stud…and I started him), Louis Murphy (dud), Josh Morgan (dud), and Patrick Crayton (dud).
Incorrect = Leon Washington (stud), Greg Olsen (stud…so close), and Braylon Edwards (dud).

STUDS
1) Santana Moss owners won’t get their 100-yard game; however, there TD-catch is on the way this weekend in MoTown.
2) Jeremy Shockey is being targeted early and often by Drew Brees. Expect plenty of Saint points in Buffalo and Shockey to continue his rather surprising fantasy start to the season.
3) Brett Favre is going to air it out against the Niners secondary. They’ll stack the box against AD and force the 39-year old QB to beat them. And he will.
4) Bernard Berrian is catching a 60+-yard TD this week…if he suits up healthy.

DUDS
1) Matt Cassell may be without Dwayne Bowe and the Eagles D is not going to allow back-to-back eruptions. Sit him NOW.
2) Mario Manningham was a popular pickup this week. Don’t start him though as the Giants will run run run the ball against the Tampa D.
3) Chris Johnson is going to dominate the touches for the Titans, for better or worse. LenDale White isn’t bound to do much of anything this weekend.
4) 2 for 1 SPECIAL!!! It’s a little too wet for me to be excited about Benjamin Watson at QB or Laurence Maroney in any sort of flex start. Oh yeah, Maroney sucks too!

Parting Thought of the Week

Credit: Jessica Simpson

Romo can't leave the fans this upset in primetime again.
Step it up!!!

NFL SWOT Analysis: NFC East

The NFL is heating up. Training camps have either started already or are starting over the next week. Once again we're back with the Team-by-Team SWOT Analyses. We're taking a close look at the upsides and downsides of each team, and what they look like going into training camp. Check back every couple of days as a new division will be posted. As always, looking forward to the comments.


Dallas Cowboys

Strengths – Many teams would love to have a tandem of backs like Marion Barber and Felix Jones. If Jones is 100%, expect an even split on carries, allowing Barber to step back into a role he dominated in when splitting carries with another Jones. The QB’s best friend is a great TE. The Cowboys have arguably the best in the league with Jason Witten. However, don’t sleep on Martellus Bennett. If D-Coordinators think they can put a LB on him, expect some nasty exploitation. Together, they will cause mismatches that will move the chains. The Defensive Front Seven, led by DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff, is one of the best in the league.

Weaknesses – Was losing T.O. addition by subtraction? Roy Williams will have some big shoes to fill. Outside of the TEs, he doesn’t have much help. The secondary will need all the help they can get from the front seven. Mike Jenkins steps in as a full-time starter. Team him up with Terence Newman, and you have two CBs who don’t like to make tackles. Gerald Sensabaugh should not have a hard time making the team forget about the other Roy Williams at safety. But, if he does, it’ll be a long year for the Dallas D.

Opportunities – As a team, the Cowboys need to use last year’s debacle to fuel their fire for this season. They cannot be an embarrassment again. At the nickel corner, Orlando Scandrick has the kind of physical build and game that the team desperately needs. If he can prove himself during training camp and the preseason, we could see the 2008 fifth rounder a lot.

Threats – Can Jerrah Jones stick with Wade Phillips throughout the season if the team hits some bumps? While I’m not a fan of Phillips, replacing him mid-season would be disastrous to this team, regardless of Jason Garrett’s presence. This is also the toughest division in the league (until another division proves otherwise). For the Cowboys to succeed, they must best the Giants and Eagles, who are the class of this division at this point in time.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Anthony Spencer, from Greg Ellis. Spencer has the type of pass rushing skills to make Dallas fans forget about Ellis. Spencer could have Shaun Phillips-like production because of the luxury of who he has as a bookend.

Position Battle – WR: Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin, Isaiah Stanback. At least one of these three has to step up and be as good as Jerrah claims they are. Once that happens, the Cowboys could be tough to stop on offense.

Rookie Contributor – Not likely to be any. I did like Robert Brewster. He might have had the best chance in the preseason, to show that he’s going to be the eventual replacement for Hotel Adams. But, this morning I got news that he's out for the season. I guess most of the rookie contribution will have to come from all four drafted LBs. They need to show that they can spell the starting four. A deep set of LBs is the strength of any 3-4 defense.



New York Giants

Strengths – This team lived and died by Eli Manning’s arm for the last few years. With the receiving corps taking a new shape, the running game becomes an even bigger focus than last year. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will pick up most of the slack left by Derrick Ward. This job is always made easier by one of the best functioning offensive lines in the league.

Weaknesses – It is very easy to point out the receiving corps. Losing Plaxico is huge. A pistol-packing, self-shooting individual off the field, he was heavy artillery on it. On the other side of the ball, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that their defense is a weakness. While there is some talent, Steve Spagnuolo is gone.

Opportunities – This is Eli’s chance to prove how good a QB he is if he can produce with what looks like a mediocre set of WRs (on paper, that is). Kevin Boss should end up with a bigger role in the passing game. He has a lot to prove.

Threats – The D-Line will be tested early this season. They are a smallish group flanked by a linebacking crew that isn’t impressive outside of Antonio Pierce (Boley will miss nearly half of the season due to injury). A power running team could have a field day.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Bill Shridan from Spags. Will Sheridan keep the same defensive philosophy intact, or will he add his own signature? Either way, will he be able to hold this defense together as masterfully as Spags did.

Position Battle – DT: While newcomers Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard are penciled in as the starters, holdovers Fred Robbins and Barry Coefield won’t give up their spots without a fight. This is also the formula for a strong DT rotation.

Rookie Contributor – Potentially a few with such a strong draft. Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden are big receivers that this team lacks without Plaxico around. Clint Sintim could fill in for Michael Boley early.



Philadelphia Eagles

Strengths – McNabb is this team’s MVP. Last year’s benching was a fluke, and Reid knows (whether he likes it or not), this team goes where McNabb takes them. They arguably have the best WRs in the division and arguably the best McNabb has had since joining the team. This is the QB that took his team to several NFC Championships with James Thrash, Todd Pinkston and LJ Smith as his targets. The defensive line and linebackers may be one of the more underrated in the league. The DTs started getting some love last year, but LBs like Stewart Bradley and Chris Gocong could be the next breakout players.

Weaknesses – How do you recover from losing Brian Dawkins and Jim Johnson? These were the on and off field leaders of this defensive team. Team Quintin at safety (Mikell and Demps) leave a lot to be desired. Mikell is one-dimensional, in the form of Roy Williams. His strength is to stop the run, but he leaves something to be desired in pass coverage (which is why Sean Jones is around), and Demps is stepping into some HUGE shoes.

Opportunities – On paper, the Eagles are the talent of the division. However, any football fan should know that it means nothing until you produce on the field. Look for Andy Reid and the coaching staff to tap into that potential and maybe land back in the NFC Championship. Brent Celek has an opportunity to show if he is the TE that caught 12 balls in one game, or if he’s a one game wonder.

Threats – Biggest question of the year: Can Westbrook stay healthy? The offensive line has question marks as well. You have Jason Peters coming off a season where he gave up a rack of sacks. Stacy and Shawn Andrews will flip-flop from the positions they played last year. It also doesn’t help that Jamaal Jackson never lived up to his hype when he signed his deal, and should get a push from Nick Cole. While Peters and the Andrews brothers are great linemen, can the line gel as a whole this season? Could McNabb be running for his life again (much like some of his most frustrating years)?

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Demps from Dawkins. Taking over for a legend, will Demps be Steve Young or Quincy Carter? Can the Eagles fans go easy on him early? I guess the other question is, could Sean Jones swing over as the deep safety and take the spot from Demps?

Position Battle – RB: LeSean McCoy and Lorenzo Booker. Who will have the opportunity to be Brian Westbrook’s #1 caddy?

Rookie Contributors – Jeremy Maclin as a returner and a home run threat. LeSean McCoy as a potential RB2. Clint Ingram, if Celek turns out to be a one game wonder.



Washington Redskins

Strengths – There are not many to speak of on offense other than Chris Cooley. On the other side of the ball, they strengthened their DTs with the addition of the $100 Million Dollar Man, Albert Haynesworth. The linebackers, led by tackling machine, London Fletcher, look good. Rocky McIntosh proved to be a student of the game last season and broke out.

Weaknesses – The WRs are either too short for the offensive scheme, or they are unproven. The offensive line, even with the addition of Derrick Dockery, is in need of an overhaul. However, the biggest issue for this team last season was the instability in the play calling. The team dominated the first half of the season as a power running team. However, they turned into a pass-happy team in the second half and stunk things up.

Opportunities – Jason Campbell’s stage has been set. He’s finally going into his 2nd year in the same offense (a feat unrealized since high school), and he’s got a boulder on his shoulder (forget a chip). Outside of the upgrades, the rest of the starting roster stayed intact. This team has the makings of a surprise waiting to happen.

Threats – This is the downside of the Jason Campbell situation. He could end up folding under the pressure (like a lawn-chair) and the consequences will be heavy. This is also an old team that somehow lacks stability. They will beat a great team one week, and give a winless team their first win the next week. If that roller coaster starts hitting it’s peaks and valleys early, it’s going to be a long season.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Many passers. Few takers. This may be Snyderrato’s last shot at doing anything before the inevitable dismantling and re-building.

Position Battle – WR3: Roydell Williams, Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. It’s too bad they’re not vying for the WR2 spot, as Antwaan Randle El would probably make a better WR3 than he does a WR2.

Rookie Contributor – Bryan Orakpo will play the hybrid LB/DE role. He will play LB on running downs and DE on obvious passing downs.

5 NFL Questions - Championship Weekend

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals [3:00 pm on FOX]

Can 5th-round pick Tim Hightower be effective rushing the ball in the redzone today?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) What protection schemes will Wisenhunt and Grimm come up with to protect Kurt Warner from the machinations of Jim Johnson's exotic blitz packages?
2) What are the respective health statuses of Anquan Boldin and Brian Westbrook?
3) Is Karlos Dansby prepared to play the game of his life?
4) Which rookie will have a greater impact: DeSean Jackson or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie?
5) Will Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb finally come full circle from the "benching incident" against Baltimore?


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers [6:30 pm on CBS]

Can Big Ben expose a hole or two - if only for a second - in the Raven secondary with tight end Heath Miller in the "check-down" spot?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Will Joe Flacco be the first rookie QB to guide his team to the Super Bowl with 3 straight road victories in the playoffs?
2) Will the Steelers sweep the Ravens (and their defense) 3-0?
3) Which ballhawking safety will seal the game: Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu?
4) Is Terrell Suggs going to play or be a factor whatsoever?
5) Which team will establish their running game earliest and most often in each half?

Just in case you're bored at any time today with either game, hit up Blockbuster for this unforgettable Disney classic...



Enjoy the games...

NFL Championship Weekend Pre-Game Analysis: Philadelphia at Arizona

Philadelphia Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do knock the stuffing out of Kurt Warner. Yes ... I'm repeating myself ... AGAIN. Neither Atlanta nor Carolina listened to me and see what happened to them. Props go to Mike Florio at PFT who reminded the world of 12/01/2002 ... the day the Eagles showed the world how to stop Kurt Warner.

Do pay close attention to the common mistakes that Atlanta and Carolina made on offense against the Cardinals. Atlanta ran 24 times and threw the ball 40 times. Carolina ran the ball 15 times and went to the air 35 times. That equates to 2 key mistakes made by each of Arizona's postseason opponents thus far: 1) Forfeiting any chance at winning the time of possession battle; 2) Stepping away from what they did best (which was running the football). Don't go all pass happy (HINT ... that message is for Andy Reid), but at the same time, don't give up what you do best. So incorporate those screens to Westbrook and Buckhalter ... but let them run it up the gut too.

Do make use of DeSean Jackson in every aspect of the passing game. That means, let him run quick slants, let him run some out patterns, and definitely let him just sprint downfield a few times. Arizona has some talented DBs (read: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and moving your most talented WR to different spots throughout the game will enable him to keep the secondary guessing.

Don’t let Larry Fitzgerald get you down. He WILL make some phenomenal catches throughout the game, even if you have 5 guys covering him. So WHEN he makes those catches, pat him on the ass and compliment him ... but only after you've tackled him HARD. The other key is to force all of his catches to be tough grabs ... do NOT leave him wide open (like Carolina did all day long).

Don’t let Donovan McNabb forget the benching. Dude has been playing with a massive chip on his shoulder since the Baltimore game. He should have carried that chip since the T.O. drama unfolded in Philly ... but he didn't. Now that he is carrying it, don't let him forget it ... as long as it's there, McNabb will remember that he has something to prove ... and it can only be proven with a victory on February 1, 2009.

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do keep the motivation up. Nobody expected you to win against Atlanta 2 weeks ago, let alone be hosting the NFC Championship game. You were underdogs at home to Atlanta and were 9.5 point underdogs to the Panthers. After two impressive wins, you are at home again, and AGAIN are underdogs to the Eagles (by 3.5 points). If that's not locker room board material, I don't know what is.

Do keep on executing your playoff game plan. On offense you have mixed it up quite a bit, and actually ran the ball 15 more times than you passed it last week! The shift away from a pass-heavy offense has befuddled opponents thus far. On defense, the incredible showing thus far has everyone drawing comparison's to the transformation that the 2006 Colts defense went through between the regular and post seasons. Stick to the game plan this week ... it's worked so far, why shouldn't it work again?

Do watch the Redskins/Eagles game from December 21. Washington played a very effective scheme against the Eagles. Even if the receivers hadn't dropped a half-dozen of McNabb's passes, the Skins were the only team to effectively contain McNabb and his offense after Week 12.

Don’t expect Larry Fitzgerald to have the same game this week as he did last week, especially if Anquan Boldin isn't back in the lineup. Philly has one of the best (if not the best) secondaries in the NFL. There will not be many (or potentially any) wide gaps for Warner to find Fitz through this week. The only way to create the mismatches is to spread the ball around early.

Don’t ignore either Edge or Tim Hightower. Last week Edge had 3 more carries than Timmy, but finished with 19-yards less. That's OK. The youth/experience 1-2 punch will serve you well in trying to wear down Philadelphia's front seven. If each back runs at least 15 times at the Philly D, those guys will be dead tired in the 4th quarter.

Key Matchups:

When Philadelphia has the ball
Rookie WR DeSean Jackson vs. Rookie CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Both young men were highlighted by Armin in his Rookie Year End Report, although Jackson didn't make the top-10 for his side of the ball. Cromartie, on the other hand, was the #3 defensive rookie, by Armin's standards. These two young stars will definitely go head-to-head at least a few times on Sunday, and the outcome could very well hinge on whether Jackson beats Cromartie for a TD, or whether Dominique out-leaps DeSean for an INT.

When Arizona has the ball
QB Kurt Warner vs. DEs Trent Cole and Darren Howard
This was actually a tough call, because the WR/DB matchups will be solid as well when the Cards have the rock. However, in order for the receivers and the secondary to have a chance to battle it out, Kurt Warner will have to be able to get the ball downfield. Trent Cole and Darren Howard, however, have other plans for the future spokesperson for Depends. The two DEs combined for 19 sacks on the season, and they have a coordinator in Jim Johnson who has a PhD in bringing the pressure on opposing QBs. If Warner can avoid the pressure, it will be a tiring day for the Eagles secondary. If, however, Warner is reminded of that cold Philly day in December 2002 when he was sacked 8 times and picked off twice ... well then I guess the Eagles will be going to Tampa.

The product endorsements will never end ...

Intangibles:

Start Time
So I made a mistake last week. Okay, I made many mistakes last week. However, the one I'm thinking about is when I focused so much attention on Arizona's poor performances on the East Coast. What made it a mistake was that I ignored the fact that all of the Cardinals games out east in the regular season had 1 PM start times, whereas last week's game was in primetime. As one of the Fox commentators noted (sorry, can't remember which one), Kurt Warner has a fairly elaborate and intricate routine on gamedays, which involves studying game film, going over the playbook, time for personal reflection, as well as other components. A 1 PM game on the East Coast translates to a 10 AM game out west, thus compressing the time that Warner has to prepare for kickoff. So, the question for this week becomes: will a 12 Noon kickoff time give Warner enough time to go through his normal routine?

Injuries
Yes, this is a cliché intangible. However, I'm only using it in reference to two players: Anquan Boldin and Brian Westbrook. The extent to which each athlete, and therefore able to perform to the best of his ability, will determine how effective his offense will be. At the same time, both teams have proved themselves capable to win without these star players. But this is no ordinary game, this is the Conference Championship ... and both defensive units will be out for blood. Arizona needs Boldin to play at full strength and Philadelphia needs a solid showing by Westbrook.

Sum Picking Arizona Playoff Games
I have now picked the Cardinals to lose each playoff game, and have been wrong twice. Will the opposite of my prediction occur again? Look down to see what I say ... and you may want to place money on the exact opposite result.

Final Score Prediction:
Philadelphia's defense powers the way to another attempt at the Super Bowl: 27-13.

5 NFL Questions - Divisional Round Sunday

After yesterday's subpar effort, you still get 5 Questions for EACH game. Lucky you, right?

Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Giants [1pm, FOX]

When will Asante Samuel get his pick-six?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Who will do a better job with ball security today: Donovan McNabb or Eli Manning?
2) Who will have the greater deep-ball/special teams impact: DeSean Jackson or Domenik Hixon?
3) Which platoon-back will have more touches: Correll Buckhalter or Derrick Ward?
4) Which kicker may be asked to nail a game-winning in blistery winds in the final moments of the game: David Akers or John Carney?
5) Will the Eagles suffer with a lack of a redzone rush offense?

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers [4:45 pm, CBS]

Last week it was AP MVP Peyton Manning. How about AP Defensive Player of the Year next?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Is Darren Sproles officially ready for playoff immortality?
2) What type of magic does Troy Polamalu have up his "playoff" sleeve?
3) Is Antonio Gates back to elite TE (aka "you better double cover me every play") status.
4) Which team will lose BOTH the turnover and the penalty battle?
5) What affect will the weather have on the West Coast Bolts?

Enjoy the games...

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Philadelphia at NY Giants

Philadelphia Do's and Don't's:

Do your best to pack extra ice in the cooler. Brandon Jacobs is going to run, run, and run some more against the Eagles defense. The Giants should be wise enough to know you can't "save" a back for future games he's not guaranteed to see. A steady diet of Jacobs must be expected by Jim Johnson's defense, no matter how successful or unsuccessful the bruising back is on the Giants' opening few drives. All it takes is one brutal run downfield to inflict physical and psychological damage on an opposing defense.

Do whatever it takes to isolate Brian Westbrook on Antonio Pierce. Pierce is talented, but no linebacker in the NFL can keep up with Westbrook in the open field. Memories of Westbrook's TD against the G-Men last month have to be ringing through defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's head. As they should.

Do your best to involve Kevin Curtis early. While Troy Aikman went a bit overboard in calling Curtis a potential "great player", Curtis has plenty of downfield speed to spare and can run a sharp corner route against soft coverage. He's Philly's top wideout-option (not named Westbrook, of course) and has proven that he is capable of going nucking futs if he starts going early.

Don't allow Kevin Boss to go unchecked in the secondary. Plaxico is going to be TERRIBLY missed. Duh. Nevertheless, Hixon deep and Steve Smith in the slot on third down can't be the only two objectives for Dawkins, Samuel, and company in the secondary. Boss often goes weeks without catches; yet, has just enough playoff experience and is sneaky-good in the redzone with Eli.

Don't let Darren Howard underperform. I'm not sure exactly how you do that; nevertheless, Howard needs to be in the backfield - among several other talented Iggle defensive lineman - and all over Eli Manning (get ready for it now...early and often). Rattling a Super Bowl MVP won't occur easily. However, I do believe Eli can be frustrated and the rush game can stall out at times. Not without a consistent in-your-face pass rush though.

New York Do's and Don't's:

Do use the Meadowlands to your advantage. The wind is one a kind and Donovan McNabb - despite tremendous poise last weekend - has been frustrated before in this stadium. Nothing will help your team (and the crowd) more then a strong start on offense and a 7-0 lead up on the scoreboard. Put the pressure on McNabb to throw the ball to keep up with your offense, especially if the elements are willing to help your defense.

Do your best to pop Hixon deep early. His drop several weeks ago still has to sting a bit, despite a solid performance after Plaxico went down from the emerging wideout talent. While Burress is obviously a noted absence, Eli seems to have developed a strong chemistry with Hixon. Use that to your advantage, especially since Assante Samuel (perhaps the top postseason NFL CB since a younger Ty Law) owns the flats and sidelines.

Don't allow Donovan McNabb to feel comfortable in the pocket. McNabb proved last week that despite a rush game that doesn't click immediately, if he has time he's going to beat you down the field. While Philly doesn't have an electric offense, they'll dink and dunk their way downfield very effectively; especially with their talented RBs in the screen game. If only LJ Smith didn't stink so much. If the Giant front four - particularly Fred Robbins up the middle and Justin Tuck on the edge - stall early, big problems may ensue downfield for their secondary.

Don't keep your eyes off of DeSean Jackson. He's one-of-a-kind on punt returns, reverses, and (yes, even) as a wide receiver. Any space and Jackson has the ability to take it to the house. It's tough enough gameplanning for the speed of Westbrook in the open field; however, Philly has a rookie wideout just begging for a playoff touchdown for the ages.

Don't forget about field position. John Carney has been nothing short of a godsend this season and has plenty of leg for this stadium, despite being on the wrong side of 40 years old. If the field goal isn't available, wise punting has to be practiced with the dangerous aformentioned Jackson waiting. The Giants' ability to both sack the quarterback and force costly turnovers is one of their greatest assetts. Nothing will help this team more than frustrating McNabb and Andy Reid deep inside their own territory.

Key Matchups:

When Philadelphia has the ball...
OTs Tra Thomas & John Runyan vs. DE Justin Tuck
I already took plenty of time to talk about the obvious: Brian Westbrook vs. Antonio Pierce. Instead, I'm going to take a chapter out of Sum and Armin's previews and talk about the play of offensive tackles and defensive ends. While previous matchups focused on names like Terrell Suggs and Julius Peppers on the defensive side, there might not be a more talented young, stud defensive end than Justin Tuck. Enter into the equation the play of two recognized Eagle tackles (Tra Thomas & John Runyan). If they bully and stymie Tuck early on the pass rush, it's the rush game that wins out most. Funny how that works, huh?

When New York has the ball...
RBs Brandon Jacobs & Derrick Ward vs. Philadelphia LBs (who remain nameless)
With all due-respect to Ahmad Bradshaw, I'll be surprised if the Giants gameplan more than 4-5 touches for him. Meanwhile, I already talked about the likely tremendous impact Jacobs will have on this game. Second half-stud Derrick Ward can't be forgotten either. Lethal in the late stages of several key games down the stretch this season, surprisingly in the short passing game as well as rushing the ball, Ward offers a surprising "breath of fresh air" for opposing defenses. Enter the somewhat unknown Eagle LBs. Not only will they have a runaway bulldozer coming at them; but also a talented fleet-footed back who will seem oddly fresh early in the second half. Good luck, gentlemen.

Intangibles

Haven't I Seen You Before???
I'm not going to rant about this, yet it matters a TON. This teams have seen each two times a year since the Bronze Age (didn't I use that reference last week?). In fact, in years past they've seen each other three times. Something tells me neither team will be too surprised at what the other throws at them. That usually means the bread-and-butter wins out. I gotta favor the G-Men's to the Eagles, despite being sans-Plaxico.

Legacies for Quarterbacks
Don't look now, but if Eli has two Super Bowl rings to brother Peyton's one, a legitimate conversation may arise as to who will have the greater legacy. Meanwhile, McNabb might not be Philly-bound for much longer. I can't help but wonder if his legacy may be far too clouded in the puking-incident against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Both quarterbacks know that a win puts them in the driver's seat for the Super Bowl. Not a shabby place to cement your legacy...on your own terms.

Final Score Prediction
NY Giants win, 33-24

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Philadelphia at Minnesota

Minnesota Do's and Don't's:

Speedy Viking wideout Bernard Berrian - with CBs behind - is a view Brad Childress has to hope to see a 1 or 2 times this weekend.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do your best to pop big plays downfield early and often for Bernard Berrian. The speedy wideout has started to slowly earn the mammoth-contract he earned this past offseason. The guy is also capable of making the 12-15 yard catch, too. While Philadelphia has the best safety in the NFC (Dawkins, of course), Assante Samuel can be beaten downfield without help. It won't be easy, but Berrian has enough speed to break open a route or two. One of the best luxuries of a stud RB like Adrian Peterson is a defense's relaince on stacking the box with an 8th or even 9th defender.

Do allow Antoine Winfield to play wherever he is most comfortable on the field. As talented a cornerback in the NFL, I no longer consider him to be more hype than hope. Poor analogy aside, Winfield can play the run extrmely well and is the type of guy who could slide into the slot and shadow Brian Westbrook. Tough job, but you know he's more than up to it.

Don't allow Donovan McNabb to get too comfortable in the pocket. If McNabb is rattled early and starts chucking ground balls, the Vikings can turn the pressure on the wideouts and tight ends to get open or for McNabb to force a pass or two; especially if the rush D shuts down Westbrook/Buckhalter.

Don't worry about Adrian Peterson and his recent bout of fumbilitis. I don't need to ellaborate. Except...feed your workhose. Forget about next week. There's no reason APete doesn't demand 30+ carries on Sunday afternoon. Wait, I just ellaborated. Dang.

Don't make any mistakes in the punting game, especially when DeSean Jackson is involved. Avoid allowing punt returns tacking on any unnecessary points in a game that is likely to be decided by one posession or less.


Philadelphia Do's and Don't's:

If McNabb starts well, this game will be over well before halftime. Mark it down.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Do what has been working as of late. Feed Westbrook and Buckhalter until it works, even if it's in the passing game. If the Vikes rush D is up to the task, slip in screens for each back and allow DeSean Jackson a go or two in the Wildcat formation. Open it up...with diversity.

Do your best to put the game on Tavaris Jackson's shoulders. With your secondary playing so well, stack the box and put as much pressure as possible on Adrian Peterson. The fumble "issue" has to be somewhere in the back of his head (I think). Not to mention, a lot of players on this team (especially at the skill positions on offense) haven't seen the NFL Playoffs yet.

Do not target LJ Smith on big plays in the redzone. He sucks. A lot. A whole lot. Now I needed to ellaborate.

Do not push David Akers too far if the game is on the line. He's far from clutchless (especially in the playoffs); yet, I question any kick he has over 45-yards. McNabb is no master of the 2-minute offense, so keep that in mind.
Note: With that in mind, I'm predicting Akers hits a game-winner from 44 yards. Boo ya!

Do not gameplan for McNabb to throw 30+ times. The best case scenario will be a 20-27, 200+, 0 turnover type day for Donovan McNabb. Take care of the ball, control the field, and rely on the experience you have at the QB position.

Key Matchups:

When Minnesota has the ball...
Tavris Jackson vs. Jim Johnson

Tavaris, do your best to be extra prepared for the blitz. Of course, there's no way of knowing when and where Jim Johnson is going to send his defenders. Nevertheless, Jackson better know two words by heart: check down. Whether it's Shiancoe, Chestor Taylor, or (preferably) APete, know exactly who might slip through an open seam and be able to make defenders miss downfield.

When Philadelphia has the ball...
Brian Westbrook vs. Minnesota LBs

All too often in the past few weeks, Brian Westbrook has burned opposing defenses for HUGE plays downfield while be matched up on the outside with a not-so-speedy LB. Memo to the Vikings: do your absolute best to avoid that at all costs. Especially on short and 2nd scenarios.

Intangibles

My Best Friend...
Brad Childress and Andy Reid love each other. They're the bestest of friends. How sweet, right? Not so much. I'm wondering which Kornheiser-esque scenario plays out after Sunday: student outdoes mentor or mentor outdoes student.

1st Quarter Box Score
This is the key to everything. Seriously. Whomever has dictated the pace in the first 15 minutes will win this game. I expect a 14-0/10-3 score one way or another. If the Eagles can't score early, they won't score late. Ditto for the Vikings.

Final Score Prediction
Philadelphia wins 26-24

InClement Weather: 10 Midnight Musings

First off, push aside any of your "home-grown" playoff scenarios and just go here:
You can play out ANY scenario you want and get your results. And I mean ANY.

As usual, Yahoo! Sports is the place I go to get the very best.

Look closely and you'll see my co-NFL MVPs. Yep, I said it and I meant it.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Here are 5 nuggets from this week and 5 more from next week...

...5 From This Week...
1) How about we eliminate the division champs from the NFC and AFC West in the playoffs? Denver is choking almost as hard as the Jets and the Bolts may sneak in behind Norv Turner of all coaches; meanwhile, the Cardinals are an absolute embarrassment. I don't care when they 'clinched', they're the easiest 1st-round out in years, even at home.
2) Nobody wants New England in the playoffs. Nobody.
3) Brett Favre is going to retire. Mark it down. Let's see how New England acts if Cassell may get courted by the Jets.
4) Matt Ryan and Michael Turner should share the NFL MVP (see above dumby!)
5) Mike Smith and Tony Sporano should share the Head Coach of the Year Award.

...5 For Next Week...
6) If the Chargers win, that sets up Indy @ San Diego in the 1st round. Who doesn't like that drama/rematch? Even I do...
7) If the Eagles beat Dallas at home, neither might be in. Why? Oakland would have to beat Tampa for Philly to get in at 9-6-1. Ditto if the J-E-T-S beat the Fish & Pennington. By the way, it's S-U-C-K now.
8) Baltimore can still get knocked out with a loss. Although they can get in without a W without too bizarre a scenario, barely.
9) With #1 locked up, do the Giants suit up a team against Minnesota?
10) If Chicago loses tomorrow night, the Vikes might not suit up a team either.

Here are a few of the "more" important scenarios to take into account:
-Denver vs. San Diego is FLEXED by NBC. The winner is the AFC's 4-seed. Lock it up.
-Dallas wins and they are in. After all these past few years have seen for the enigmatic wideout of all wideouts, TO needs to help deliver a win in Philly. Wow.
-Miami wins and they are AFC East champs and the #3 seed. Easy. If they lose, there is NO scenario for a playoff birth. NONE.
-New England could end up only the second 11-5 team to NOT make the playoffs. How? Miami & Baltimore winning (both are favored).

The real key - as I see it - is the scheduling of games. Flexing can be done by CBS & Fox as well for the 4pm slate.

But which game gets the national 4pm spotlight? Or do two?
Dallas vs. Philly has FOX written all over it; meanwhile, NY Jets/Miami is a CBS showdown. There are other options; however, I don't see any being as plausible.

The aforementioned two could be very very interesting seeing as Tampa/Oakland should be a lock for 1pm; ditto for Buffalo/New England and Jacksonville/Baltimore. OH THE DRAMA!

Just imagine if New England and B-More win; who do the Jet fans root for between them and the Phins? Seriously? While nobody ever roots for their team to lose (or do they?), will memories of Spygate remind Jet fans a loss to the Fish spells doom for the Patsies?
Note: The team would never feel that way...I hope. Pride is pride. But fans (not me...yet) have sadistic levels of thinking.

While that's playing Devil's Advocate, it's still a game you play with playoff scenarios. While I see ZERO chance of either occurring, obviously there's two ways to get in for New York's not-so-finest:
1) WIN & New England loss to JP Losman & Buffalo (yeah, sure)
2) WIN & Baltimore loss to 5-10 Jacksonville (I'm on it!)
Note: Both are home games for the Patsies and Ravens.

Of course, WINNING in the first place isn't likely. Nevertheless...

It will be as crazy a Week 17 as we've seen in years. Especially if - let's say - the Jets beat the Fins and Iggles the Cowboys (or vice-versa in that second game) and neither of the four are in.

Drama...indeed.

Good luck!!!

Clement’s Weekly Picks & Prognostications…(Late) Night Turkey Day Edition

Sorry for the timing of this post; however, the busy day got the best of this writer.

First off, happy Thanksgiving to all. If for some reason the holiday isn’t your thing, I at least hope you have the day off. Although I suppose if anyone is working, at least you’re getting paid extra.

If none of these reach out to you. I pity you.

While the regular NFL edition will get its due tomorrow, I decided to peg out a “holiday edition” for the five of you who look forward to this weekly-column.

Probably came as no surprise to YOU that CJ/White both had MONSTER days.
Did it to me?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

NFL Picks: 33-18 [A LaDell Betts fumble cost me 3-0, but not the Skins the game.]
Upset Special: 9-10 [That late 2-point conversion that failed for San Fran cost me a winning record in a dismal “upset” season of picks.]

…spreads courtesy of oddsmaker.com…

Tennessee Titans vs. Detroit Lions (+ 11 ½)
The lack of this game being 11-0 vs. 0-11 might turn off fourteen of the twenty-eight viewers who aren’t connected to this game for fantasy or as a Lions/Titans fan. Nevertheless, the Titans are on a short week after a brutal ***-kicking from the Jets. Meanwhile, Detroit is starting to hear 0-16 more and more every day. I expect this game to be very very ugly. That means the Lions are going to be 0-12, losing by 12 or more points.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys (-13)
This game – for Dallas – needs to be against an NFC East rival every year. Rotate between the three or have the guys to make this game Dallas vs. Washington every year. Nevertheless, Seattle is a BAD team who doesn’t even play well at home – no less on the road – this season. Julius Jones returns to Dallas as the starter and will be a non-factor. Look for Romo to light up the air and toss 3-4 TDs and keep pacifying his wide receiver known commonly as TO. 13 is a TON of points to leave out there. I’m taking em though, as I see this as the second route of a lukewarm Turkey Day schedule.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
It boggles my mind the spreads that come out for Philly at home. I know that public money and the oddsmakers are always “behind the scenes”; nevertheless, Arizona was beaten up by the Giants and will travel cross-country easier than their last two-week stay. While the weather might be frightful, Andy Reid and Donovan F. McNabb aren’t going to salvage much out of this season. My real interest is on the play of erratic Cardinal LB Dansby and how Coach Wisenhunt manages an underachieving rushing gameplan (not necessarily the talent). Would 1 or 2 I formations – outside of the red zone – kill this team? Maybe. Sorry Iggles fans, you won’t cover or win.

See you tomorrow with the Friday edition. Here’s to shooting for 40-25. Then maybe 50-30 by playoff time.

Happy holiday.

Tuesday FourCast: Week 10

1) Kurt Warner for MVP
I know it was just two weeks ago I was plugging Clinton Portis for MVP (who will play against Dallas, I guarantee it); however, the NFL is fickle beyond fickle. While CP still has the award well within his sights, two names have emerged in recent weeks: Adrian Peterson and Kurt Warner. While APete's performance Sunday was magical, I'm sticking with the ressurected QB in the desert. Despite his team nearly blowing it (at home, no less) against the Niners, Warner's numbers, poise in the pocket, and leadership are exactly what the red birds need. Can you honestly predict this team would be anything better than 3-6 with Matt "Laguna Beach" Leinart at the helms? Me thinks not. If you're a stat geek, a 100+ QB rating and 19 TDs through 9 games should suffice, right?

2) Same Old Melody
Ever watched a Chargers game the past few years? More than likely, here's the script:
A) Play like *** in the 1st half.
B) Struggle to get going in the 3rd quarter.
C) LT and Gates wear on opponent - Rivers gets cheap TD tosses - and win the game late.
Yep, that's how the Chargers "do it". Problem is, they have a playoff script too:
A) Underachieve
B) Underachieve
C) Sit out injuries without trying to play
D) Miss kicks with a "Pro Bowl" kicker left and right (literally).
Must be fun to enjoy the weather out there, at least.

3) NFC (L)East
Philly fans can blame the following after last Sunday night's loss - dropping them to 0-3 in the NFC East - at home (while favored!) to the Giants:
A) McNabb's ridiculous inaccuracy
B) Andy Reid's generic-beyond-stale playcalling
C) Whatever was with Brian Westbrook
D) Assante Samuel's averageness
E) A stupid rule - but not call - with Eli Manning's "forward pass"
F) Ryan Howard
Why Ryan Howard? Because the Phillies obviously took away all the "big wins" for the season for the city. That's why.

4) For Real?
How "legit" do you consider the NFC South? Here's how I feel.
A) New Orleans is a walking dissapointment. Instead of just stinking - as in years past - they are the 'darling' of America come pre-season. In the end though, they can't win close games, Drew Brees turns the ball over a lot more than we think, and the Reggie Bush-situation hasn't ever really worked out.
B) Carolina is who we thought they were. They have a talented defense that isn't underachieving this season, Steve Smith is still one of the best (not the best) wideouts in football, and their running game is hot and cold from week to week.
C) Tampa Bay will always be under the radar; yet, I don't see them sneaking into the playoffs this year. John Gruden gets the most out of a roster at opposite ends of the spectrum age-wise.
D) Atlanta...well, they're the feel good story of the season. Props to head coach Mike Smith, rookie QB Matt Ryan, and phenomenal wideout Roddy White. I'm enjoying the ride, playoffs or not.

Quick Hits From Week 6

In lieu of the running blog that we at PHSports have done throughout most of the season, I wanted to offer some quick hits from a most interesting Week 6. As noted in this past Tuesday's edition of the FourCast, awkward games are this season's calling card.

• In the early set of games, the Washington Redskins lost three fumbles (all three in field goal range resulting in a potential 16-point swing) and gave away a game against the St. Louis Rams at the death. The Redskins outgained the Rams by over 150 yards. Maybe the Rams knew what they were doing when they made Donnie Avery the first WR taken in the draft and gave silly money to a kicker.

• In the game that would not end, Dallas forced overtime at Arizona and had seemingly stolen the momentum ... only to lose on a blocked punt. Despite another sloppy game from Dallas, their fourth in six games, many will decide to point fingers at the special teams who bookended the game with touchdowns surrendered.

• Indianapolis has resurrected its season and Marvin Harrison answered my question earlier today about whether he was done. He's not. Just ask Chris McAllister. The Colts may have longer term issues with the health of Joseph Addai hanging in the balance, but the timing which is so crucial to Indy's engine was functioning per usual.

• As expected, Jacksonville hit Denver in the mouth and won. Let's see if the Jags can do the unthinkable and aim for consistency.

• Perhaps we have been underrating the NFC South. Just ask the Chicago Bears who are 0-3 against the division. Three teams have 4 wins and New Orleans is in last with three wins. Also, paging the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan is no game manager. He's a winner.

• Philadelphia salvaged a fourth-quarter comeback against San Francisco. It's amazing how Correll Buckhalter's numbers can mirror that of Brian Westbrook's when he gets similar touches. Am I saying Buckhalter is as good as Westbrook? Not a chance. But I am saying that Buck can start in this league for at least 10 teams and it's no coincidence that his lack of touches correlate with losses to divisional foes. Also, I'm starting to think that Donovan McNabb is more comfortable without Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis. The team is 3-1 when neither have played, and the only loss was the shootout in Dallas.

Live Blog for NFL Week 5

Updated at 155pm

• The Eagles are handling the Redskins early on. David Akers is the best player for the Redskins. Right as I say that, McNabb throws a bullet to Carlos Rogers, which was dropped.
• Queue the Vince Young watch. Two picks thus far from Kerry Collins who has gotten an inordinate amount of love from the media. For those just joining, many dubbed Collins a basketcase earlier in his career. This is not to say he's a great player to have in the locker room now.
• After falling behind by 10 points at Reliant Stadium, Houston knots it at 10.
• In Detroit, the Pop Warner defense is holding Matt Forte to 3.4 ypc and stopped the Bears on 4th and 1.
• So much for my upset pick today - Giants are up 17-3 against the Seahawks.

240pm

• After 14 quick points from the Eagles, the Redskins have fought back with three field goals. Did anyone start Shawn Suisham today?
• DeAngelo Williams with a career half against the Chiefs. Through a half and change, Williams has 127 yards and 3 TDs. Wild.
• Miami picked up where it left off two weeks ago. Two second-quarter TDs have the Dolphins up 17-3. The entire San Diego offense has been ineffective. This isn't the first time they've been down double digits this season.
• Houston has come back with fury, up 7 at the half. One bright spot for Indy - they have largely stopped the run. That said, they have probably overcompensated for its Achilles heel.
• Matt Ryan and Roddy White may very well be the next big play combo as Sum alluded to a few weeks back. Up 17-7 at Lambeau.
• I bet the baseball games will have more runs than the Titans/Ravens game has points. 3-3 at the half.
• How about Kyle Orton?!?!?!

325pm

• We'll just ignore the KC/CAR, CHI/DET and SEA/NYG because they are blowouts. Detroit offensive coordinator Jim Colletto said they would "open it up today". The only thing opened up in Detroit is a can of whoopass.
• The Redskins have totally stolen the momentum from the Eagles. It's only a 2-point game, but it could be much worse.
• Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings to tie the score at home against Atlanta at 17. This came after Matt Ryan threw a pick in the endzone. Ouch.
• Miami puts a temporary halt on San Diego's momentum and hang on to a touchdown advantage.
• Indianapolis is experiencing serious problems. Houston has rattled off 27 unanswered and have a comfortable 17-point lead. Did you imagine that the Colts would be 1-3? I sure didn't.

345pm

• After the Eagles earned some first downs, the Redskins told them who's boss in the redzone. Eagles held to a field goal. Philly fans boo. Jason Campbell has been nothing short of amazing since the first couple series. His progress since the Giants game describes why the NFL is so unpredictable (and great). College basketball is better though.
• Albert Haynesworth having trouble getting up ... this could be a case of Bad News Bears.
• Right when the Colts were on their way to 1-3, they score a TD on 4th down and force a fumble-six. 27-24. It was the second lost fumble for Sage Rosenfels, who has had an otherwise stellar day.
• Matt Ryan is on his way to earning his first away victory as an NFL quarterback. Michael Turner finds the endzone for the first time away from the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome.

400pm

• The Washington offensive line & Clinton Portis will be 4-1 after dominating the Eagles on both lines. On the decisive 4th and 1, the offensive line pushed forward and Portis fought tooth and nail. Realistically, the Redskins could be 7-1 before their matchup against Pittsburgh. On a personal note, with the Cubs choking and the Eagles losing at home to a divisional foe, it's equivalent to a kick in the groin followed by a facial cleat stomp.
• In Houston, Indianapolis completed a phenomenal comeback, scoring thrice in the final 8 minutes. Sage Rosenfels turned the ball over three times in the decisive period.
• Tennessee comes from behind to defeat Baltimore. The Ravens, though impressive, are now a realistic 2-2. Tennessee keeps rolling, but it's not pretty. Collins to Crumpler for the winning score - you'd think this game was played in 2003.

425pm

• After a disappointing defeat, the Lions are an underwhelming 0-4. Sources have confirmed that they are shopping an unhappy Roy Williams; however, their price tag has been too much (prior to getting the sack, Matt Millen offered Roy Williams to the Cowboys for DeMarcus Ware). Could teams like the Eagles, Chargers (Chris Chambers was carted off earlier today) and Bills be in the market for the talent yet oft-injured playmaker?
• Tampa Bay and Dallas up early on field goals.
• Matt Cassel and JT O'Sullivan have both thrown picks ... in the first five minutes.
• Marion Barber III has half as many touches as last game in the first five minutes ... four. And Felix Jones just surpassed his touches. TO must be stewing. Oh, that damn media stirring up non-existent stories in Dallas.
• Phil Simms is intolerable. I'd love an automatic function that mutes specific commentators. The smart money is on Clement muting Chris Berman.

745pm

• Despite winning today, Dallas is not who we thought they were after their win at Green Bay. Perhaps it's a case of having the target on their chest. I think it's a case of having a defense that's not hungry and an offense that has forgotten the killer instinct it had for most of last season.
• Trent Edwards was concussed early in the Bills' 41-17 loss at Arizona. This was the Jekyll & Hyde matchup of the week and Hyde kicked Jekyll's tookus. Kurt Warner put any potential quarterback controversy to rest with a solid performance. Steve Breaston deputized well in Anquan Boldin's absence.
• Brian Griese wasn't able to win (or finish the game due to a shoulder injury) against another former team. Why? The Denver defense - a contradiction in terms - showed up. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall did not put up the fancy numbers, but they won the game. I am still trying to understand the 36 pass / 21 run play breakdown when the Broncos surrendered 6.3 yards per rush.
• New England dominated the time of possession (40 minutes) and wore down San Francisco. This limited the number of touches for Frank Gore and facilitated the style of football which made the Patriots who they are prior to 2007.

Quick Hits from Sunday's Games

Here's one sentence (maybe two) from each of Sunday's games ...

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Edwards and Ocho Cinco find the endzone, and Quinn should have entered the game for Cleveland after halftime if Crennel knew what he was doing.

Houston @ Jacksonville
Jacksonville evens up its record yet Matt Schaub has a career game. Both defenses stopped the other team's running backs.

Atlanta @ Carolina
Moose reawakens and Atlanta fails to score a TD in its second straight divisional road game.

Denver @ Kansas City
LJ and Clement's fantasy teams got going. Four turnovers and an inability to stop the run killed Denver.

San Francisco @ New Orleans
The return of Deuce McAllister to full-time duty and a full game's worth of production from Drew Brees result in an easy win in the Big Easy.

Arizona @ New York Jets
Thirty-four second quarter led to the clock operator being replaced and Kurt Warner putting up the worst 472 passing yards ever. Arizona will never stay on the East Coast.

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Late burst from Earnest Graham shored up an anything but certain victory for Tampa. Shocker: I saw at least one scuffle and guess who was in the middle? Jeremy Trueblood.

Minnesota @ Tennessee
Tennessee cruises behind its defenses, who caused three turnovers, and effective redzone play. Minnesota is searching for answers.

San Diego @ Oakland
Oakland squanders a 12-point fourth quarter lead and that LT guy wakes up from his season-long slumber. As of the writing of this post, Lane Kiffin still has a job.

Buffalo @ St. Louis
Linehan's out after Buffalo took care of business in the second half. Action Jackson finally finds the endzone.

Washington @ Dallas
Washington outplayed and outcoached Dallas, and TO - the target of 34.5% of offensive plays - complains. Missing person reports were submitted for Marion Barber III and Felix Jones.

Philadelphia @ Chicago
Orton plays his best half as a pro followed by possibly his worst. Philadelphia's inability to translate turnovers caused into points (6 points from 4 turnovers) cost them dearly.

Our Thoughts: Does Plax's Suspension Shift the Balance of Power in the NFC East?

Sum: No, it doesn't. As I discussed in my Pre-Season Faux-Cast, Eli can do just fine without "talent" at the wide-receiver position, plus the Giants have lots of depth there. In the second preseason game (Cleveland), Eli completed 4 of 7 pass attempts, and none of the recipients were named Plaxico, Amani or Steve Smith. In fact, in that game, none of those three "starters" even caught a pass, and that was one of the two all-important weeks of the pre-season. So, I think the Giants will be fine for the ONE game they're Plax-less. Sure, Plax and Eli have the "connection" down pat, but Eli is a team leader now, and he can lead his team without Burress. Now, if this were last season prior to Shockey's injury, or anytime before, my answer would be much different. The balance of power in the NFC East still has Cowboys-Eagles-Giants at the top with the Redskins a semi-distant second. At least for now.

Armin: Not so much, in my opinion. Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC (B)East. Washington is going to finish last. The battle will be between the Eagles and Giants. However, before Plaxico was suspended, it was not too hard...not TOO hard...for me to say that Philly was playing like the better team. We also saw Steve Smith step it up a little lately, and he looks like he could be a weapon. Toomer is usually "Old Faithful" on 3rd downs. If Eli can create an even better connection with Kevin Boss, the Giants should be ok. I guess the big question is: Will Plax become a problem?

Clement: Determining the 'Balance of Power' in the NFC East won't occur until a few more weeks. Anything before that is speculation supported with speculation. The real key in the coming weeks is which NFC East team can win a game on the road (memo to Zorn and the Skins). It's fun to call Dallas "October's Team", but everybody for years had the same issues (and made excuses) for Peyton and the Colts. It's Romo's third season and the team's defense is still gelling with new additions all over the field (Thomas, Jones, Jenkins, etc.) In reality, New York suspended Burress for far more than missing a practice during a bye week. He just earned a FAT contract and isn't representing the team well with recent reports of potentially missing several meetings and possible potential domestic disturbance issues. Washington isn't allocated for last place, not yet. Every team still needs to answer several questions before we can analyze who is who. Dallas seems at the top right now; however, the Giants are an incredible road team and that isn't something I'm willing to pass up. Eli will have a lot of work to do without Plax for a week, obviously. What I'm really interested in is how the Giants balance their platoon of 3 backs. It doesn't take a fantasy owner to realize that Brandon Jacobs needs more than 12-15 carries a game to impose his size, strength, and will on an opposing defense.

Paymon: In a word, YES, it most certainly does. At a maximum, only three NFC East will make it to the playoffs. In reality, some weaker team will rise from the scrap-heap to claim the second wild card slot. The season is not decided in September, but Dallas certainly has the look of the best September to December team in the NFL, let alone their conference and division. As noted, Philadelphia and New York were in a dead heat for second billing with most giving the Eagles a slight edge. Washington, who was expected to be the doormat of this division, have reeled off two straight wins, albeit at home, against decent competition and Jason Campbell looks worthy of being an NFL quarterback. You can think of this as a one-game suspension. You can also think of this as a potential chemistry killer. Chemistry - the very reason that the Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions. Though the Giants are off to a 3-0 start, their competition is a combined 2-7, and they had to eek out an overtime home victory against the winless Bengals. Long story short, the margin for error is too little for chemistry issues in addition to the existing set of personnel losses. Plax's ego minus his production is too big a loss, because I do not think he will let it go (even though he is likely at full fault for whatever it is that he did) after he returns to work two weeks from now. Also, his presence allows for players like Toomer to dominate on 3rd down and Smith to roam the field out of the slot.

5 NFL Questions – Week 3

1. How will Tony Romo be received at his homecoming?
2. Will the Raiders be smart and kick away from Roscoe Parrish?
3. Will the Eagles’ offense continue to roll or will Pittsburgh make them return to reality?
4. Which late game will yield the most points scored?
5. Which underdog (excluding Carolina) will win today?

NFL Week 1 Running Blog

On Thursday, the NFL officially started its season. That said, today is when the league really gets down to business. Here are some ongoing observations ...

210pm

• Tom Brady has suffered a knee injury. Matt Cassel has deputized quite well in engineering a long scoring drive. Cassel to Moss? For now, it'll have to work.
• 17 minutes into the NFL season, Willie Parker has matched his touchdown total from last year (two). So much for Rashard Menden Fumblehall stealing goal-line touches. Pittsburgh is having its way with Houston. Big Ben has been sacked a grand total of zero times.
• The Eagles are looking superb thus far against the hapless Rams. The Eagles are without their top 2 WRs, which would be third and fourth on everyone else's depth chart. DeSean Jackson is electrifying.
• I expected a big day from Michael Turner, but 135 yards on 9 carries with two TDs is sick on many levels. Matt Ryan has completed all five pass attempts and done something that no Atlanta QB has done ... make Michael Jenkins relevant.
• With a knackered Mike Nugent, Brett Favre pulls a Brett Favre and throws a pass that Chansi Stuckey (7th rounder from last year) grabs for dear life on 4th and 13. J-E-T-S ?

320pm

• The two teams from Pennsylvania have been most impressive. St. Louis and Houston are not this bad.
• So much for Miami RBs running all over the Jets. Early in the 4th quarter, the Dolphins have a whopping 49 rushing yards.
• Devery Henderson is the only NFL receiver who I think can maintain a 84.0 ypc average.
• Listed Chad Ocho Cinco Johnson ... he finally has a catch. The Bangles are still down 10-3 to a rookie QB and Willis McGahee resting. How has Chris Perry done so far ... barely averaging more than 2 ypc with a lost fumble. What is Shaun Alexander's mobile #?

355pm

• It's obligatory that I bring up the beatdown in Orchard Park. I did pick the Bills in my pick'em league, but I did not expect the whalloping that is being evidenced. Who knew that Trent Edwards would have more passing yards than Matt Hasselbeck? Not me. In his defense, it's hard to throw the ball when you're placed on your back five times and hurried many more times. I did know that Julius Jones sucks though. 8 carries and -5 yards.
• Why were the Eagles starters still in the game with a 31-point lead? Kevin Kolb just completed a pass ... why did the Eagles trade up in the 2nd round to select him two drafts ago?
• Matt Schaub is somewhat of a fantasy garbage time king. Down by a million points, he now has two TDs to his name. That said, he has done zero to validate the lump sum he recieved last year. Is that a Sage I see in the distance?
• Tennessee is closing in on "upset" at home against Jacksonville. The inability for the Jags to rush the ball reminds me of their first game of the season last year, which was against these very Titans. Though I was shocked to see him get drafted in the first round, Chris Johnson has been stellar today with over 90 yards and a receiving TD.

640pm

• Dallas has stomped a mudhole into Cleveland. After Felix scored a TD in his first NFL carry, Clement said, "It took 1 play for Felix Jones to make sure Julius Jones is never uttered again in Dallas."
• San Diego is playing like ... a team coached by Norv Turner. While the offense has been known to take off quarters, it's not often that the defense gives up 6+ ypc. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart may be the 1-2 punch necessary to get the Panthers the 13 wins that Sum predicted. I still disagree.
• Arizona is up 10 points, but their games with San Fran always end up being close. For those keeping up with Martz Watch, the 49ers have 17 passes and 17 runs.

720pm

• Carolina defeats San Diego at the death behind the arm of Jake of Men and the hands of Dante Rosario, who UPS mistook for this actress.
• The first experiment of Martz-y Ball was not a success.
• MOST IMPORTANTLY, sources are now reporting that Tom Brady is OUT FOR THE YEAR with ligament damage in his left knee. There goes one of my fantasy teams and the Super Bowl hopes of the New England Patriots.