NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Philadelphia at Minnesota

Minnesota Do's and Don't's:

Speedy Viking wideout Bernard Berrian - with CBs behind - is a view Brad Childress has to hope to see a 1 or 2 times this weekend.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do your best to pop big plays downfield early and often for Bernard Berrian. The speedy wideout has started to slowly earn the mammoth-contract he earned this past offseason. The guy is also capable of making the 12-15 yard catch, too. While Philadelphia has the best safety in the NFC (Dawkins, of course), Assante Samuel can be beaten downfield without help. It won't be easy, but Berrian has enough speed to break open a route or two. One of the best luxuries of a stud RB like Adrian Peterson is a defense's relaince on stacking the box with an 8th or even 9th defender.

Do allow Antoine Winfield to play wherever he is most comfortable on the field. As talented a cornerback in the NFL, I no longer consider him to be more hype than hope. Poor analogy aside, Winfield can play the run extrmely well and is the type of guy who could slide into the slot and shadow Brian Westbrook. Tough job, but you know he's more than up to it.

Don't allow Donovan McNabb to get too comfortable in the pocket. If McNabb is rattled early and starts chucking ground balls, the Vikings can turn the pressure on the wideouts and tight ends to get open or for McNabb to force a pass or two; especially if the rush D shuts down Westbrook/Buckhalter.

Don't worry about Adrian Peterson and his recent bout of fumbilitis. I don't need to ellaborate. Except...feed your workhose. Forget about next week. There's no reason APete doesn't demand 30+ carries on Sunday afternoon. Wait, I just ellaborated. Dang.

Don't make any mistakes in the punting game, especially when DeSean Jackson is involved. Avoid allowing punt returns tacking on any unnecessary points in a game that is likely to be decided by one posession or less.


Philadelphia Do's and Don't's:

If McNabb starts well, this game will be over well before halftime. Mark it down.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Do what has been working as of late. Feed Westbrook and Buckhalter until it works, even if it's in the passing game. If the Vikes rush D is up to the task, slip in screens for each back and allow DeSean Jackson a go or two in the Wildcat formation. Open it up...with diversity.

Do your best to put the game on Tavaris Jackson's shoulders. With your secondary playing so well, stack the box and put as much pressure as possible on Adrian Peterson. The fumble "issue" has to be somewhere in the back of his head (I think). Not to mention, a lot of players on this team (especially at the skill positions on offense) haven't seen the NFL Playoffs yet.

Do not target LJ Smith on big plays in the redzone. He sucks. A lot. A whole lot. Now I needed to ellaborate.

Do not push David Akers too far if the game is on the line. He's far from clutchless (especially in the playoffs); yet, I question any kick he has over 45-yards. McNabb is no master of the 2-minute offense, so keep that in mind.
Note: With that in mind, I'm predicting Akers hits a game-winner from 44 yards. Boo ya!

Do not gameplan for McNabb to throw 30+ times. The best case scenario will be a 20-27, 200+, 0 turnover type day for Donovan McNabb. Take care of the ball, control the field, and rely on the experience you have at the QB position.

Key Matchups:

When Minnesota has the ball...
Tavris Jackson vs. Jim Johnson

Tavaris, do your best to be extra prepared for the blitz. Of course, there's no way of knowing when and where Jim Johnson is going to send his defenders. Nevertheless, Jackson better know two words by heart: check down. Whether it's Shiancoe, Chestor Taylor, or (preferably) APete, know exactly who might slip through an open seam and be able to make defenders miss downfield.

When Philadelphia has the ball...
Brian Westbrook vs. Minnesota LBs

All too often in the past few weeks, Brian Westbrook has burned opposing defenses for HUGE plays downfield while be matched up on the outside with a not-so-speedy LB. Memo to the Vikings: do your absolute best to avoid that at all costs. Especially on short and 2nd scenarios.

Intangibles

My Best Friend...
Brad Childress and Andy Reid love each other. They're the bestest of friends. How sweet, right? Not so much. I'm wondering which Kornheiser-esque scenario plays out after Sunday: student outdoes mentor or mentor outdoes student.

1st Quarter Box Score
This is the key to everything. Seriously. Whomever has dictated the pace in the first 15 minutes will win this game. I expect a 14-0/10-3 score one way or another. If the Eagles can't score early, they won't score late. Ditto for the Vikings.

Final Score Prediction
Philadelphia wins 26-24

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 5

Seriously, is it week 5 already???

With my NFL team on the bye (J-E-T-S) and one of my fantasy teams boding the worst pair of starting QBs ever (Huard & Flacco, baby!), I can’t allow my NFL Picks to suffer.

Especially when everyone bit the farm with last week’s games.

NFL Picks: 9-8 (Remember, we’re picking spreads here. Hello above .500!)
Upset Special: 1-4 (Stupid Packers)

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3)
This is SCREAMING push. Denver has no D; however, I’m far from crazy about the Bucs O. Still looking for a better ‘balance’ for Griese and company. Eddie Royal is my Rookie of the Year. Go Broncos.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-5 ½)
Philly needs Herculean efforts from Westbrook to beat the Redskins. Is he healthy enough to provide that? NO. The real concern I have for upbeat Skin fans is how the blitzing packages of Jim Johnson will be dealt with by Zorn and company. Edge to the Skins, if only to tackle this number.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4)
Why must you keep attacking road dogs, Clement? Why must you believe so much in the Stillers with spreads under 2.5? Okay, I admit it. I have a problem. Jags win by 5 or more. Although I don’t know how just yet.

Upset Special #1
Kansas City @ Carolina (-9)
I unfairly hate on Steve Smith and prop up LJ way too much for fantasy reasons. Nevertheless, I’m tackling any number that has an NFC South team nearing double digits (even at home).

Upset Special #2
Buffalo @ Arizona (-1)
Seriously, what do the odds makers know that we don’t? I’m gonna go for it and feed the sport’s book exactly what it wants. Take that!


3 Must Starts and Must Sits

START

…Last Week…
Ike Hillard stunk, Patrick Crayton was above average (I’ll take it!), and Kerry Collins did just fine in an emergency fantasy-QB situation.

…This Week…
Tony Gonzalez is better off with Damon Huard and has minor trade value, Antwaan Randel-el is worthy of a garbage TD this weekend against Philly, and Kevin Walter loves stealing AJ’s TDs from Schaub.

SIT

...Last Week…
DeSean got a TD but was clearly misused as the focal point of the Eagle offense, McGahee isn’t healthy anywhere on his body, and Griese won despite throwing 3 costly picks and 1 measily TD (score one for the big guy!).

…This Week…
Chad Pennington won’t fare well this weekend against the Chargers, Randy Moss should be sat in favor of Santana Moss (hello!), and Deuce McAllister isn’t a weekly start…yet.

That’s all I got.
Now enjoy it…please.

Until next picks…

NFL Picks & Prognostications...Week 4

This is how we do it…

NFL Picks: 6-7 [I really need to start picking some freebies.]
Upset Special: 1-3 [Well damn!]

San Francisco @ New Orleans(-5)
Is the J.T. O’Sullivan Project really worthy of a 3-1 start? Sure! However, I’m taking the desperate Saints to take the W, barely, despite a porous secondary and a complete inability to convert on 3rd and short late in the 4th quarter.

Minnesota @ Tennessee (-3)
Minnesota dug itself out of a hole with Frerrotte at the helms (like I said!) and they are rewarded with the NFL’s “worst” 3-0 team ever (at least according to the “experts”) in Tennessee. I’ll take Jeff Fisher over Brad Childress any day. Especially in Nashville. Beware of a monster day for APete though.

Washington @ Dallas(-11)
Landmark matchup in Week 4. Seriously. With neither of the teams in this STACKED division having lost outside of the division (Dallas & NY 3-0 as well), this game means a TON. Dallas must defend homefield and the Skins must continue spreading the ball out all over the field. Santana Moss loves eating up the Big D secondary. It’s gonna be nail-biter to the very end, but I’ll take the Boys for now.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5 1/2)
Who’d have thunk the Ravens would be 2-0 after three weeks? Nobody. Then again, nobody predicted their Week 2 matchup against Houston would’ve been postponed until Week 10. Funny thing is, they’d probably be 3-0 if they’d gotten to play that game. Nevertheless, the Ravens can go 3-0 in division with a road win here. Despite a banged up Big Ben, I’m taking the Stillers to cruise. Rashard Mendenhall looks awful by the way.

Upset Special
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay (-1)
Battle of the Bays sans-Sapp and Favre now. Oh well. Tampa is again a sneaky team at 2-1 and Green Bay looks to shake off the Sunday night loss to Big D at Lambeau. The Pack travel well as of late (most 13-3 teams do) and I see no reason they can’t contain Griese, Graham, and company Sunday afternoon.

3 Must Starts and Must Sits

START

…Last Week…
Justin Gage didn’t play (thanks!), Ike Bruce thankfully added a TD to his crummy 19 yards, and Darren Sproles wasn’t a factor (maybe the only Charger who wasn't too).

…This Week…
Ike Hillard will further frustrate Galloway owners as the TD-catching Buc, Patrick Crayton has to a catch a TD (seriously), and Kerry Collins will toss two TDs against the Vikes this weekend.

SIT

…Last Week…
Mark Clayton wasn’t a factor at any point, DeSean Jackson had nowhere to go but down, and LJ owners breathed a sigh of relief (at least for one week) with a rock solid second-half performance.

…This Week…
DeSean Jackson needs to be traded now while his value is at its highest, Willis McGahee is too frustrating to even hover around a starting lineup these days, and Brian Griese won’t get half of 400 yards against a brutal Pack secondary.

…yes I realize the irony of choosing a Buc wideout and not its starting QB…

Enjoy your NFL and fantasy weekends.
I know I won’t!

Until next picks and prognostications…

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 3

Back again with your weekly check-up!!!
Now bend over and cough...

NFL Picks: 4-5 [The horrid call in the Chargers/Broncos game pushes me under .500.]
Upset Specials: 1-1 [Of course it was easy to pick against the Bungles, but I told you to double-up and cash in. Boo ya!]

...all spreads are courtesy of Yahoo! Sports…

Dallas @ Green Bay (+3)
Starting off with a road dog? You know it! Dallas needed to pull out that victory last weekend to hold serve at home. While Rodgers has looked better than Romo, Barber III will be begging for the ball and the injury to Charles Woodson could be a problem. Dallas wins, even if it’s by a push.

Carolina @ Minnesota (-3 ½)
Note: Here is my rough draft on Tuesday of this pick. I stand by it more than ever. Especially since I’ve been saying it for MONTHS. Yes, months.
Another road dog? Nope. Minnesota can’t face 3-0, even though Detroit would always be worse in the NFC North. Tarvaris Jackson might lose this job if he starts off too poorly (yes, even to Frerotte). A Pete should run wild in the dome again and even though Steve Smith is back, the Panthers will struggle mightily to run the ball against the Vikes front 7. Vikes win, barely.

New Orleans @ Denver (-5.5)
New Orleans has a terrible secondary. Enter Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler, and the NFL (and fantasy’s) highest-profile offense to date. Things won’t stop in Mile High. Broncos roll as the Saints start to creep back into ‘Aint form.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-2)
Cleveland needs it too much; despite how rested B-More is. Joe Flacco can manage a game, but the aging Raven D and a still hobbled-McGahee won’t be enough to overcome the stench of road desperation from the Browns.

Upset Special #1
Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia (+3)
Sorry Pay, I’m picking the Stillers. Gut shot: Pay is too, I bet. Both teams went primetime, yet looked quite different. The Steelers are now my AFC frontrunners, largely because I think this team is built to perform on the road. Yes, even in it’s home state.

Upset Special #2
NY Jets @ San Diego (-9)
I’m not supposed to pick Jet games. Screw it. San Diego will win; however, 9 points is just too many to leave out there. Even with the vanilla offense the Jets are mired in through 2 weeks.


3 Must Starts and Must Sits

START

…Last Week…
LJ sucks, Alge Crumpler was useless beyond belief, and Patrick Crayton was invisible despite his team scoring 41 points. I reached and I SUCKED.

…This Week…
Justin Gage loves Kerry Collins and vice-versa, Darren Sproles is gonna put up a Kevin Faulk-type performance on Monday Night (with better fantasy points too!), and Issac Bruce is a fun spot-start here. ***Bonus Pick*** Tennessee’s D is gonna vault them to 3-0 with a defensive TD (or two!).

SIT

…Last Week…
Devrey Henderson wasn’t a factor at any point, LJ Smith remains an enigma, and Pierre Thomas had a TD and nothing else. He was mediocre in TD-only leagues at best as a start. 3 for 3 redeems a horrific begin to fantasy advice this week (aka “Start").

…This Week…
DeSean Jackson won’t go 3 straight weeks for 100 yards (he won’t even break 50), Larry Johnson is done, baby, done, and Mark Clayton is never a sleeper wideout. No Raven ever is.

Think you can do better?
You’re probably right.

Until next week…

Tuesday FourCast: Week 1

Welcome to this year’s first installment of the Tuesday FourCast. For those who are new readers or for those who just need a refresher each Tuesday morning during the NFL regular season, one member of the PHSports staff will give his list of four things to take away from the weekend’s slate of games. Since the four of us have different styles, you will receive a variety of thoughts across the football spectrum. The only constant is quality.

#1: You Can No Longer Assume Health of Certain Players
Tom Brady’s injury tells us a number of things. First, the Patriots are no longer the frontrunners to return to the Super Bowl. Second, Tom Brady’s career following a torn ACL will never be the same. Third, how does this affect the value of Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss and Wes Welker?

What stuns me to end is that you can no longer assume the health of certain players, including but not limited to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, and yes, Brett Favre. This further demonstrates the imposed parity that exists within the NFL caused by unintended events. That is why, on average, only 7 of 12 playoff teams return the following year.

In a slightly related story, Patriots players need to shut their mouths. While I understand how it feels to have your best player out for the year (I have my PhD in this … I’m an Eagles fan), it’s another thing entirely to say Bernard Pollard should be fined for his hit on Tom Brady. Be quiet, Randy Moss. Quit comparing apples and oranges, Vince Wilfork. It’s not like Pollard, a safety, treated Brady’s leg like a table to rest his elbow on. That’s what Vince Wilfork did.



#2: Who Said All Rookie WRs Had a Steep Learning Curve?
Someone forgot to send that memo to DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal – both second-round picks. Jackson and Royal filled in for injured/suspended players and deputized admirably in the receiving department as well as special teams.

What was consistent with both rookie wide receiver performances is that their quarterbacks involved them early. Jackson was targeted on the first two plays for Philadelphia and made his imprint on the Eagles faithful with a 40+ yard reception. As for Royal, he was included on two passes and two rushes. Royal finished with 9 catches and 146 yards with a touchdown and torched DeAngelo Hall. What is most impressive about these rookies has been their route-running skills, which is a positive sign for future growth and development. Not to mention, both made heady plays which made fans forget that they are rookies.

#3: The AFC Is In Trouble
Last year, Sum so subtly described the plight of the NFC. The tables have turned. Among the six teams that made the AFC Playoffs last season, only half of them won, and among those three (New England, Pittsburgh and Tennessee), only Pittsburgh avoided a multi-week injury to their quarterback. Here is a rundown of how the AFC elite fared.
* New England. Won in ugly fashion behind Matt Cassel. Though Tom Brady once had the “game manager” tag, I will be shocked if Cassel rises to stardom like Brady did en route to a Super Bowl.
* Indianapolis and San Diego. Lost on respective their home fields to NFC teams who watched the playoffs from their living rooms.
* Pittsburgh. The only team with double-digit wins to win in impressive fashion. Willie Parker looked like a man possessed.
* Jacksonville. Much like Week 1 last year, they were stifled on the ground. Even worse, they lost both starting guards. Poor David Garrard.
* Tennessee. Despite winning, the Titans were awful. And by awful, I don’t mean they were full of awe. The Titans’ apologists will tell you that Chris Johnson and the defense played well, and that they generally win ugly.
* Cleveland. Steamrolled by Dallas. Additions on defense had a combined one good play, which resulted in 13 stitches for Mr. Jessica Simpson.

All of this can be summed in one word. Ouch.

#4: Don’t Buy Into the Hype … Yet
Matt Ryan. Joe Flacco. Aaron Rodgers. All three made their first NFL start (so did JT O’Sullivan, I think, but who cares about him?) and all three were winners. As I tell everyone I come across, the first week of the NFL season is all about anomalies. Perhaps, it’s an excuse I employ to explain losing an inordinate number of Week 1 matchups. Perhaps, it’s Tom Brady tearing an ACL in the first quarter of the first game and it’s Carson Palmer laying the mother of all eggs. Some events become trends, but most are one-time occurrences. That said, if all three continue to show poise under pressure and guide their teams to victory, then the hype is well worth it. Though he played against a Pop Warner defense, Matt Ryan impressed the most. It never hurts when you have a running back who breaks the franchise’s single-game rushing yards record … in his first game as a Falcon.