- Will the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers be able to play and be effective?
- With both starting tackles out for Carolina, can Kansas City actually get to the quarterback?
- Can Indianapolis hold Houston's backs to under 125 yards?
- Which unconventional formation (if any) will we see from the Miami Dolphins?
- Is Adrian Peterson due for a 200-yard game?
Sunday, October 05, 2008
5 NFL Questions - Week 5
Monday, September 15, 2008
Tuesday FourCast: Week 2
As if you didn’t hear enough from me this weekend.
#1. Reality Check for Several Teams
So who’s 0-2? Miami, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Detroit, and St. Louis had to expect to fall onto tough times this season. However, there are a few “other” teams who couldn’t have anticipated such a start, brutal schedule or not. Cleveland had playoff hopes; instead, they’ve been non-competitive AT HOME against Dallas and Pittsburgh. San Diego, screwed in their last game, has lost in the closing moments in each game. Minnesota still has Tarvaris-issues and choked away a 15-point second half lead against Indy AT HOME. Meanwhile, everyone on the roster in Seattle appears primed for the IR and Jacksonville is turning over the ball far too much not to be 0-2. Scary times indeed for several of the playoff-predicted.
#2. It’s not Brady or Belichick: It’s Both
As a Jet fan, I knew exactly what was going to happen Sunday. As always, the Jets would play New England tough, but not nearly tough enough. We’d (when you suffer like us, you get to say WE) be given a chance or two to make that stop or score that TD. But we didn’t. Is it because of us? Partially. Far more of it has to do though with who gameplans against us. The focus of the past week spent far too much time debating whether Belicheat could win without Brady. Of course he can. Instead of being in Cleveland, he’s surrounded in Foxboro by Pro Bowl talent, incredible veteran leadership (but not from Moss, mind you), and a couple dozen guys with more than a couple Super Bowl rings already. Instead of simply writing off the Pats (or believing they’ll be just fine without Brady), I continue to tell everyone to allow a few weeks to settle and see how the Pats compete against the real meat of their schedule. Not the Jets and their aging QB.
#3. Don’t Believe the Hype…because it MIGHT be True
Last week Pay wisely warned us about a few younger QBs in the NFL. One of them, you need not worry: Aaron Rodgers. While there’s likely to be a few growing pains and his health has never proven to be anything less than satisfactory, Rodgers has fantastic ability and the perfect motivation. Brett Favre is still playing. If Favre had retired, it’s likely Rodgers might’ve relaxed in the shadow of Favre. Instead, he’s trying to put Favre and his legacy in the rear seat immediately. Is it likely to happen? Who knows? What I do know is that Rodgers, whose mechanics look flawless yesterday compared to those at the combine three-plus years ago, looks light years ahead of the draft disgust that plagued him during late-March and early-April in 2005. Remember this folks. Rodgers was drafted 23 spots BEHIND #1 overall selection Alex Smith. Whoops.
#4. Tragedy in the Heartland
I’m not going to go Berman on the horrific situation. Instead, I’m going to ask for you all to do things:
1) Educate yourself on what’s going on.
2) Consider giving whatever you can.
This is far bigger than the NFL or fantasy football. Even if it’s hard to sometimes remember that, sadly.
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Tuesday FourCast: Week 1
#1: You Can No Longer Assume Health of Certain Players
Tom Brady’s injury tells us a number of things. First, the Patriots are no longer the frontrunners to return to the Super Bowl. Second, Tom Brady’s career following a torn ACL will never be the same. Third, how does this affect the value of Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss and Wes Welker?
What stuns me to end is that you can no longer assume the health of certain players, including but not limited to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, and yes, Brett Favre. This further demonstrates the imposed parity that exists within the NFL caused by unintended events. That is why, on average, only 7 of 12 playoff teams return the following year.
In a slightly related story, Patriots players need to shut their mouths. While I understand how it feels to have your best player out for the year (I have my PhD in this … I’m an Eagles fan), it’s another thing entirely to say Bernard Pollard should be fined for his hit on Tom Brady. Be quiet, Randy Moss. Quit comparing apples and oranges, Vince Wilfork. It’s not like Pollard, a safety, treated Brady’s leg like a table to rest his elbow on. That’s what Vince Wilfork did.
#2: Who Said All Rookie WRs Had a Steep Learning Curve?
Someone forgot to send that memo to DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal – both second-round picks. Jackson and Royal filled in for injured/suspended players and deputized admirably in the receiving department as well as special teams.
What was consistent with both rookie wide receiver performances is that their quarterbacks involved them early. Jackson was targeted on the first two plays for Philadelphia and made his imprint on the Eagles faithful with a 40+ yard reception. As for Royal, he was included on two passes and two rushes. Royal finished with 9 catches and 146 yards with a touchdown and torched DeAngelo Hall. What is most impressive about these rookies has been their route-running skills, which is a positive sign for future growth and development. Not to mention, both made heady plays which made fans forget that they are rookies.
#3: The AFC Is In Trouble
Last year, Sum so subtly described the plight of the NFC. The tables have turned. Among the six teams that made the AFC Playoffs last season, only half of them won, and among those three (New England, Pittsburgh and Tennessee), only Pittsburgh avoided a multi-week injury to their quarterback. Here is a rundown of how the AFC elite fared.
* New England. Won in ugly fashion behind Matt Cassel. Though Tom Brady once had the “game manager” tag, I will be shocked if Cassel rises to stardom like Brady did en route to a Super Bowl.
* Indianapolis and San Diego. Lost on respective their home fields to NFC teams who watched the playoffs from their living rooms.
* Pittsburgh. The only team with double-digit wins to win in impressive fashion. Willie Parker looked like a man possessed.
* Jacksonville. Much like Week 1 last year, they were stifled on the ground. Even worse, they lost both starting guards. Poor David Garrard.
* Tennessee. Despite winning, the Titans were awful. And by awful, I don’t mean they were full of awe. The Titans’ apologists will tell you that Chris Johnson and the defense played well, and that they generally win ugly.
* Cleveland. Steamrolled by Dallas. Additions on defense had a combined one good play, which resulted in 13 stitches for Mr. Jessica Simpson.
All of this can be summed in one word. Ouch.
#4: Don’t Buy Into the Hype … Yet
Matt Ryan. Joe Flacco. Aaron Rodgers. All three made their first NFL start (so did JT O’Sullivan, I think, but who cares about him?) and all three were winners. As I tell everyone I come across, the first week of the NFL season is all about anomalies. Perhaps, it’s an excuse I employ to explain losing an inordinate number of Week 1 matchups. Perhaps, it’s Tom Brady tearing an ACL in the first quarter of the first game and it’s Carson Palmer laying the mother of all eggs. Some events become trends, but most are one-time occurrences. That said, if all three continue to show poise under pressure and guide their teams to victory, then the hype is well worth it. Though he played against a Pop Warner defense, Matt Ryan impressed the most. It never hurts when you have a running back who breaks the franchise’s single-game rushing yards record … in his first game as a Falcon.
Friday, April 27, 2007
In recent years, there has always been one or two major storylines after the 1st-round of the draft is completed. It’s not always who the first pick or the last pick of the round was. Often it has nothing to do with a popular team (per say the Dallas Cowboys) or a quieter team (such as the Jacksonville Jaguars). Major trades even seem quiet once proper perspective sets into place. Yet, some stories have the ability to do more than just linger.
-Houston seemed a lock before the season to target a guy like UVA tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson. If a QB or USC guy was to be taken in his play…it had to be Matt Leinart. That was the case, at least until Reggie Bush & Vince Young dueled for the Heisman (Bush winning) and an unforgettable Rose Bowl (Young winning). Still sticking with David Carr at that point (who is now a backup in Carolina), Houston let everyone know early on that Vince wouldn’t be returning to Houston. As for Reggie Bush, the team seemed hot/cold over the can’t-miss-kid for weeks leading up to the draft. Combine initial trepidations with a trio of other factors, including: Bush’s potential $-scandal at USC, contract problems, and Mario Williams just dying to sign a friendly-contract…and the defensive end from NC State signed his rather stunning rookie contract the night before the Draft.
End Result: Houston may never live down passing up on Young or Bush, no matter how special “Super” Mario may become.
Not so Super was it?
Source: TexansRock.com
-Aaron Rodgers seemed the next Jeff Tedford QB ready to be picked in the top-half, if not the first with the top-pick, in the NFL Draft. Many pundits had San Fran targeting the junior during the earliest weeks of draft speculation. However, potential contract issues and Utah’s Alex Smith pushed Rodgers out of the #1-slot come draft time. Yet, nobody could’ve guessed just how fall Rodgers fell. Passing up team after team, without any real fervor from any NFL teams to move up or back into the 1st-round to select him, the Packers (with Chris Berman annoyingly pleading for them to do so) seemingly selected the heir-apparent to a guy named Favre. Just don’t tell Brett that. In his first two seasons, Rodgers has barely seen the field and broke his leg last year. The jury is still out on this kid to say the least.
End Result: Rodgers lost millions of dollars and may, in fact, never get a real shot at the Green Bay job or a real-starting gig. It’s perplexing when you actually consider it.
The number of quarters Rodgers has played equals that number.
Source: Orlando Sentinel
-They drafted him anyways. Yet, you just had to know, the Giants would find a way. So they parted with multiple picks (including Phillip Rivers at #4) and got their man. He made the playoffs his first full-year as a starter…and got blasted by the Panthers. These days he’s getting killed by the New York media and many are wondering if he’s just sublimely average as a QB. As for Rivers and the Chargers, while they haven’t won a playoff game either, they enjoyed an NFL-best 14-2 record and used extra picks on guys named Merriman and Kaeding (so overrated, by the way) and seem perfectly happy with how things transpired.
End Result: I still believe nobody involved, maybe save Ernie Acorsi, would change their mind about this move. Eli is still plenty talented and San Diego got more than enough in return for their 1st-pick.
Fond memories in the Manning-household.
Source: Orlando Sentinel
2003: Minnesota fails to turn their pick in on-time, prompting Jacksonville & Carolina to jump in front of them with their first-round selections.
-Pandemonium that actually sped up the usually slower-than-possible 1st round of 2003. With the clock actually ticking off the final seconds and no card in the hand of the commissioner, the rule-book was wide open as Jacksonville quickly nabbed Byron Leftwich (remember, Minnesota had Daunte Culpepper already) and Carolina targeted Jordan Gross (remember, Minnesota took Bryant McKinnie the previous draft). Baltimore was soon behind with Terrell Suugs; yet, Minnesota got the man they initially intended to select…Oklahoma State defensive tackle Kevin Williams.
End Result: Jacksonville’s QB is still up in the air. Gross is talented, but not a Pro-Bowler. Williams may be the best DT in the NFL. Suggs was a sensational steal at #10. In the end, nobody loss; especially the Vikings.
No doubt that Ziggi won't except a moment's lapse.
Credit: Glorious Nation
-It seemed one of the easier #1 picks to target. I, for one, went blue in the face demanding the franchise select the best-player-available and freakish-talent Julius Peppers out of UNC. While you need a franchise QB, Tim Couch alone proved expansion teams and rookie-starting QBs doesn’t work very well.
End Result: Houston seemed thrilled, yet somehow in perspective this draft cost them Peppers (they ended up taking Mario Williams) and perhaps Vince Young (they kept Carr). Hindsight my friends. Hindsight.
Carr spent more time in this position than any other in Houston.
Credit: Texans Rock
-San Diego seemed to balk a bit on the idea that whomever had the #1-pick “had to select the Hokie QB”. Instead, they wheeled down four picks, to #5 of course, and selected freakishly talented (yet, still somewhat unknown) TCU RB LaDanian Tomlinson. Atlanta opened their arms to Vick and didn’t feel it lost too much having to land their future franchise-QB and marketing-machine.
End Result: I’d love to sit down and actually put numbers together and scenarios to see if Atlanta would still make the move for Vick again. After the win at Lambeau, it seemed amazing. Now that LT is considered one of the G.O.A.T. already, there is a lot more debate. Yet, you can count the playoff wins up. Vickà 2 & LTà0-2. For now, it’s not the wash some consider it to be. Not yet, at least.
...before the days of the pitbull-ring...
Credit: CNNSI
-Mainly through the Keyshawn-deal, the Jets (in need of a roster makeover) were adamant at not compiling any picks to move up. Instead, they were looking for depth, playmakers, and key ingredients for a team on the rise. Or so they thought. First up was Tennessee DE Shaun Ellis (#12), freakish DE John Abraham (#13) of South Carolina, followed by Marshall QB Chad Pennington (#18), and finally West Virginia TE Anthony Becht (#27). Busy first-day for the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS.
End Result: Interestingly enough, Lav Coles was their 3rd-round selection this draft. ¾ isn’t bad in the crapshoot of the NFL Draft. Ellis has been a stalwart and an massive rush/run combo (always just off the Pro-Bowl radar), Abraham was sometimes more flash than talent (yet ended up netting future Pro Bowl C Nick Mangold in a 2006 NFL Draft Trade), and Pennington (2-playoff victories) has seemed to overcome a ton of injuries and been a good QB for the Jets during his tenure (when healthy). As for Becht, he wasn’t much at all…yet outside of Keith Bullock (at LB), there isn’t too much to realistically pine over.
Things are a lot better in NYC when Chad isn't in this uniform.
Credit: NFL.com
Note: Expect the Mock either very late tonight or bright and early tomorrow.
