InClement Weather: Salary Crunch

Props to Armin on the fantastic work on the SWOT analysis. Be sure to check that out ASAP. His latest was the AFC North. Tweet tweet.

I'll poke my head in, if only for a moment, to talk NFL salaries. Why? Eli Manning's mega-deal (6 years at a reported $97-million, with $35-million guaranteed) has a lot of people talking.
Credit: NFLGoddess.com

No, I am not here to analyze that contract. Feel free to check that out elsewhere.

What I am here to discuss is a few interesting notes related to team salaries in 2008 and individual salaries in 2009.

Which team had the highest total payroll in 2008? I'll give you three clues:
A) They had the #1 overall pick in 1997.
B) They won a total of 5 games last season.
C) They beat Brett Favre last season.

Which team had the lowest total payroll in 2008? I'll give you three clues:
A) Their star RB likes to spit alcohol on women.
B) They're in the same division as the team listed above (highest payroll).
C) They are no longer in last place, thanks in large part to a newly acquired quarterback.

As for the rest of 2008, there were a few "team-related" surprises:
A) New England was third...to last. Wow.
B) Washington was in the middle of the pack. Wow.
C) Cleveland and New Orleans went #4 and #5 overall.
D) Despite Peyton Manning's insane contract, Indianapolis was in the bottom four.

As for the players, in 2008, the contracts were (of course) MASSIVE for the elite stars.

This man's smiling face was the NFL's highest paid defender last season. Not this year, thanks in large part to the tricky stipulations of NFL contracts.
Credit: PocatelloShops.com

Now it's important to note four things when viewing NFL player salaries, especially on a year by year basis:
1) No contract is guaranteed for every dollar on the penny. Eli signed for $97-million, but was guaranteed $35-million. I won't say only. You don't say only when $35-million is being discussed.
1) Base salary is often tiny compared to how much they make.
2) Signing bonuses often vault players you'd never expect in certain years. A 5-year/$50-million deal will almost never pay a guy $10-million exactly each season. Not a chance.
3) Cap value can be massaged quite a bit, especially with loaded contracts (whether front or back-loaded)
--> This means that a player might see 75% of his contract in a 2-3 year span, even if it's a 6 or 7-year deal. You'll see what I mean below.

For example, this guy's contract, which earned him over $27-million last season, broke down as such:
Base Salary = $ 2.5 million
Signing Bonus = $25.2 million
Other Bonus = $1,920
Cap Value = $7.9 million

That quarterback happened to win THIS.

But let's compare, for comparison's sake, him to the second highest paid quarterback, who made nearly $17-million last season, with his contract broken down as such:
Base Salary = $370,000
Signing Bonus = $0
Other Bonus = $16.5 million
Cap Value = $4.8 million

That quarterback had a QB rating of 77.2 in his second season as a quarterback, his first as the established full-time starter. Question is: will he have a third?

As for 2009, well that's not official just yet. Why? A few rookies have held out, a quarterback or two is still on the market (*cough* Favre), and the lingering CBA-crisis of 2010 has affected a few potential contract extensions (*cough* Leon Washington).

Nevertheless, Eli vaulted into the 3rd slot in 2009. Who is he behind?

Player #1: Carolina is paying this man more than $1-million a game. A GAME!!! The 1-year franchise tender made him the highest paid defensive player, if only for 1-year, E-V-E-R.

Player #2: Extending for 6-years (some semantics have it at 9-years total) at potentially $118.75-million is nothing to balk at. Especially when you've never won a playoff game. Check that. Never finished the one playoff game you were in. Okay, maybe that wasn't his fault. Nevertheless, the Bungles are paying A LOT of money for a quarterback for a perennial loser.

Right behind Eli? One name you might not know, but SHOULD and one contract you definitely know, but COULD'VE been even richer.

Leave it to the Raiders to hand out an "unprecedented contract". Fortunately, for once, the money was extremely well spent on the top cornerback in the league, Nnamdi Asomugha. Even better for the talented corner, he signed for only 3 years in Oakland...at a whopping $45.3 million. Of course, this is also the same team who gave their offensive MVP - punter Shane Lechler - a 4 year deal worth an insane $16-million. Yes, for a PUNTER!!!

Nobody was surprised when the Skins broke the bank for Haynesworth. Nobody.
Credit: Swampland.com

Albert Haynesworth, who rumors say turned down an even richer deal from Tampa Bay, broke the free agent bank biggest this offseason with a 7-year, $100-million dollar deal. That's an average of $14-million (plus) a year for the defensive tackle. Not too shabby and not too surprising considering Snyder and Cerato were involved.

If you want some outside perspective, here you go...in terms of total value:
1) A-Rod netted 10 years at $275-million from the Yanks, surpassing his previous record for a sport's contract.
2) The Yankees have handed out four of the five richest contracts ever (A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia). Surprise surprise, right?
3) Mike Vick used to have a contaract, at the time the richest in NFL history, for 10 years and $130-million. Now that's a distant memory, of course.
4) Kobe Bryant is the NBA's highest-paid player ever, pre Summer of 2010 Free Agent class though.
5) Bary Zito, Vernon Wells, and Rashard Lewis both have contracts at $126-million. Which surprises you most???

There's plenty to talk about with contracts - especially when guaranteed money is involved or not - and I plan on returning to the issue.

Of course on my teacher's salary, I'll need a good cry or two first. Tweet tweet.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Philadelphia at NY Giants

Philadelphia Do's and Don't's:

Do your best to pack extra ice in the cooler. Brandon Jacobs is going to run, run, and run some more against the Eagles defense. The Giants should be wise enough to know you can't "save" a back for future games he's not guaranteed to see. A steady diet of Jacobs must be expected by Jim Johnson's defense, no matter how successful or unsuccessful the bruising back is on the Giants' opening few drives. All it takes is one brutal run downfield to inflict physical and psychological damage on an opposing defense.

Do whatever it takes to isolate Brian Westbrook on Antonio Pierce. Pierce is talented, but no linebacker in the NFL can keep up with Westbrook in the open field. Memories of Westbrook's TD against the G-Men last month have to be ringing through defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's head. As they should.

Do your best to involve Kevin Curtis early. While Troy Aikman went a bit overboard in calling Curtis a potential "great player", Curtis has plenty of downfield speed to spare and can run a sharp corner route against soft coverage. He's Philly's top wideout-option (not named Westbrook, of course) and has proven that he is capable of going nucking futs if he starts going early.

Don't allow Kevin Boss to go unchecked in the secondary. Plaxico is going to be TERRIBLY missed. Duh. Nevertheless, Hixon deep and Steve Smith in the slot on third down can't be the only two objectives for Dawkins, Samuel, and company in the secondary. Boss often goes weeks without catches; yet, has just enough playoff experience and is sneaky-good in the redzone with Eli.

Don't let Darren Howard underperform. I'm not sure exactly how you do that; nevertheless, Howard needs to be in the backfield - among several other talented Iggle defensive lineman - and all over Eli Manning (get ready for it now...early and often). Rattling a Super Bowl MVP won't occur easily. However, I do believe Eli can be frustrated and the rush game can stall out at times. Not without a consistent in-your-face pass rush though.

New York Do's and Don't's:

Do use the Meadowlands to your advantage. The wind is one a kind and Donovan McNabb - despite tremendous poise last weekend - has been frustrated before in this stadium. Nothing will help your team (and the crowd) more then a strong start on offense and a 7-0 lead up on the scoreboard. Put the pressure on McNabb to throw the ball to keep up with your offense, especially if the elements are willing to help your defense.

Do your best to pop Hixon deep early. His drop several weeks ago still has to sting a bit, despite a solid performance after Plaxico went down from the emerging wideout talent. While Burress is obviously a noted absence, Eli seems to have developed a strong chemistry with Hixon. Use that to your advantage, especially since Assante Samuel (perhaps the top postseason NFL CB since a younger Ty Law) owns the flats and sidelines.

Don't allow Donovan McNabb to feel comfortable in the pocket. McNabb proved last week that despite a rush game that doesn't click immediately, if he has time he's going to beat you down the field. While Philly doesn't have an electric offense, they'll dink and dunk their way downfield very effectively; especially with their talented RBs in the screen game. If only LJ Smith didn't stink so much. If the Giant front four - particularly Fred Robbins up the middle and Justin Tuck on the edge - stall early, big problems may ensue downfield for their secondary.

Don't keep your eyes off of DeSean Jackson. He's one-of-a-kind on punt returns, reverses, and (yes, even) as a wide receiver. Any space and Jackson has the ability to take it to the house. It's tough enough gameplanning for the speed of Westbrook in the open field; however, Philly has a rookie wideout just begging for a playoff touchdown for the ages.

Don't forget about field position. John Carney has been nothing short of a godsend this season and has plenty of leg for this stadium, despite being on the wrong side of 40 years old. If the field goal isn't available, wise punting has to be practiced with the dangerous aformentioned Jackson waiting. The Giants' ability to both sack the quarterback and force costly turnovers is one of their greatest assetts. Nothing will help this team more than frustrating McNabb and Andy Reid deep inside their own territory.

Key Matchups:

When Philadelphia has the ball...
OTs Tra Thomas & John Runyan vs. DE Justin Tuck
I already took plenty of time to talk about the obvious: Brian Westbrook vs. Antonio Pierce. Instead, I'm going to take a chapter out of Sum and Armin's previews and talk about the play of offensive tackles and defensive ends. While previous matchups focused on names like Terrell Suggs and Julius Peppers on the defensive side, there might not be a more talented young, stud defensive end than Justin Tuck. Enter into the equation the play of two recognized Eagle tackles (Tra Thomas & John Runyan). If they bully and stymie Tuck early on the pass rush, it's the rush game that wins out most. Funny how that works, huh?

When New York has the ball...
RBs Brandon Jacobs & Derrick Ward vs. Philadelphia LBs (who remain nameless)
With all due-respect to Ahmad Bradshaw, I'll be surprised if the Giants gameplan more than 4-5 touches for him. Meanwhile, I already talked about the likely tremendous impact Jacobs will have on this game. Second half-stud Derrick Ward can't be forgotten either. Lethal in the late stages of several key games down the stretch this season, surprisingly in the short passing game as well as rushing the ball, Ward offers a surprising "breath of fresh air" for opposing defenses. Enter the somewhat unknown Eagle LBs. Not only will they have a runaway bulldozer coming at them; but also a talented fleet-footed back who will seem oddly fresh early in the second half. Good luck, gentlemen.

Intangibles

Haven't I Seen You Before???
I'm not going to rant about this, yet it matters a TON. This teams have seen each two times a year since the Bronze Age (didn't I use that reference last week?). In fact, in years past they've seen each other three times. Something tells me neither team will be too surprised at what the other throws at them. That usually means the bread-and-butter wins out. I gotta favor the G-Men's to the Eagles, despite being sans-Plaxico.

Legacies for Quarterbacks
Don't look now, but if Eli has two Super Bowl rings to brother Peyton's one, a legitimate conversation may arise as to who will have the greater legacy. Meanwhile, McNabb might not be Philly-bound for much longer. I can't help but wonder if his legacy may be far too clouded in the puking-incident against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Both quarterbacks know that a win puts them in the driver's seat for the Super Bowl. Not a shabby place to cement your legacy...on your own terms.

Final Score Prediction
NY Giants win, 33-24

Tuesday FourCast: Week 14

Not much of an intro to this week's FourCast. But I must point out that I really, really had to fight the urge of my childish mentality (equivalent to that of an 11-year old boy) which wanted me to post the video clip of Visanthe's "Shiancoe." I mean, to post a link to the obvious flub by Fox would be unprofessional and immature. Seriously, we here at PHSports consider ourselves a legitimate media outlet and would never even consider linking to a video clip at the expense of the Minnesota Tight End and his "Viking." Never.

1. Long Schaub Silver's
Matt Schaub was once regarded as a diamond in the rough. NFL scouts and analysts thought he was the second coming of Joe Montana or Johnny Unitas. Hell, Schaub received enough praise to make Beano Cook's love of Ron Powlus look like a schoolgirl crush. Of course, this was before Schaub had ever taken a meaningful regular season snap. Now that Matty has played nearly two seasons (19 games) as the Houston Texans starting QB, he has thrown for only 3 more TDs than INTs (21 to 18), and has a QB rating of somewhere in the viscinity of 89.6. Not terrible numbers ... but nothing that would lead you to believe that he'd win more Heismans than Powlus. That leads us to Sunday's game against the Packers. The Pack's defense is not a group of pushovers, especially not the secondary. Yet Schaub managed to pick that unit apart for 414 yards and 2 TDs, including a 58-yarder to Kevin Walter (chicks dig the long ball). If that's the Schaub that the NFL was clamoring about, then the Texans have a shot at a bright future. But for now, he's just as consistent as Kordell Stewart.

2. "Do women (or the Bills) know about Shrinkage?"
4-10 since 1994. 2-7 all-time in games after December 1. Those are various win-loss records of the Miami Dolphins in Buffalo. Obviously the Fins don't like cold weather. So Sunday's game at Buffalo should've provided the Bills a chance at recovering from their current slump. Even with J.P. Los"er"man starting in place of the injured Trent Edwards, that frigid upstate New York weather was going to paralyze Miami. Problem: the game wasn't in Buffalo. Huh? Ralph "A penny saved is a penny earned" Wilson was so s-m-r-t as to give away the edge the weather gave his team over a warm weather franchise and have the game played indoors?
Evidently, the Wilson's bank account isn't the only place where he needs help. Sure, I get the idea of testing out a new market for your team. Especially one that has a larger population and higher tv-viewership than Buffalo. But why not move the game against New England there? Or the Jets? Why let the "warm fuzzies" known as the Dolphins play in a stadium that's protected from the ball-freezing weather in Buffalo in December? It makes no sense. Sorry Buffalo fans, but this decision by your team's ownership was "wide right."

3. Is That a Concealed Handgun in Plaxico's Pocket? Or Are You Just Happy to See Me?
Back in the pre-season, I declared that the New York Giants didn't need lots of talent at wide receiver. That statement was prompted by the Giants performance during the all-important third week of the pre-season in which Eli Manning completed seven passes to five different receivers, none of whom was named Plaxico or Amani. Last week, against the Redskins, my observation appeared to be accurate. Eli threw for 305 yards, completing 21 passes to six different receivers, all with Plaxico out due to his inability to control his piece. But this past Sunday, against the Eagles, it seemed the Giants receivered not named Burress weren't up to the task. Domenick Hixon (the same guy who caught two TDs in the aforementioned pre-season game) dropped a beautiful lob from Manning that was a surefire TD. The drops were all over the place as the receiving crew did all they could to try and prove me wrong. Unfortunately, I'm stubborn (yes, I'm hard headed) and refuse to admit that I'm wrong quite yet. I still say that Manning doesn't need Burress or an exceptional WR to make plays happen. Last week was the exception ... week 13 against the Redskins was the rule.

4. Which NFC Division Has the Stroke?
A month or so into the season, many were declaring the NFC East as the best division in football. None of the four teams had a losing record, and the only losses for any of the teams had occured within the division. Fourteen weeks into the season and still all four teams are above .500. But the same holds true for the NFC South. After the slobber-knocker between Tampa and Carolina last night, the NFC South has a combined record of 34-18 (.654). The NFC East stands firm at 33-18-1 (.644). Outside of their respective division games, the East is 24-9-1 (.721) and the South is 24-8 (.750). The difference between the two divisions is like splitting hairs. In two weeks the current division leaders will meet as the Giants (11-2) will face the Panthers (10-3) in a game that will determine the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. Not to take away from the NFC East's achievements thus far, because the combined win-loss record of those four teams is truly stellar. But, perhaps, self-proclaimed sports-gurus were a bit too quick to "crown their ass."

5 NFL Questions - Week 13

1) What will high emotions result in on 'Sean Taylor Day' in Washington D.C. as the Skins battle the first-place Giants?
2) Will the Bucs end the playoff hopes of the NFL South-darling Saints?
3) Are the Chargers going to be only one game out of the AFC West with a 5-7 record after today?
4) Who will be on top of the NFC North following today: Bears or Vikings?
5) Steelers @ Patriots: Who do you got???

Kevin Boss has quietly over the past few weeks displayed why the G-Men were ready to trade Shockey. Can his fantasy value rise as the playoffs arrive?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

***Fantasy Football Bonus Question***
6) How do you deal with Giants - not Eli Manning - like Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Amani Toomer, Kevin Boss, Giants DEF, etc???

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 12

A lack of an introduction can only help me at this point.
Oh wait, was this an intro???

...

NFL Picks: 31-17 [Yes, I was one of "those" who lost a pick due to the Polamalu-non TD. Stupid zebras. Picks are on a roll, by the way.]
Upset Specials: 8-8 [Should've gone to that Skins/Cowboys slobberknocker.]

You might not see a better catch this season than this one. Don't believe me? WATCH.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports (assist to YouTube)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens (-1 1/2)
Not taking the road dog here. It's likely time Reid, McNabb, or both go. Fear not, they'll both have plenty of suitors. As for the game, Ray Lewis won't fear the tiny Iggle backs. Ravens win a crucial game for their playoff hopes.

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2 1/2)
Not liking the Jags or the Vikes much after last weekend. If the Jags can't rush the ball, they won't be able to pass it to win. David Garrard might be the next Jeff Blake. That's not a good thing, by the way.

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks (+ 3 1/2)
Could Sean Alexander return to Seattle as a starter for Skin fans? If he does, they're likely to lose this game traveling west. I trust CP will suit it up and Santana Moss will catch a big play or two. It'll be close, but not FG close.

Upset Special #1
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (- 2 1/2)
A lot of public money will hit Indy early and often. San Diego - even at home - doesn't have anything left in the tank that scares people. Indy is clicking. Despite Norv having Dungy's number, Peyton and co. are playing too well. Bob Sanders needs to play though.

Upset Special #2
NY Giants @ Arizona Cardinals (+3 1/2)
Jacobs should be fine; however, Vegas knows something in this spread the average eye doesn't. Ballhawking safeties like Rolle and Wilson might make Eli regret a pass or two. He's gotten away with a few too many close-INTs this season. I'm taking a real shot here...at least for that spread - as small as it seems - not to last. (Deep breath)

Upset Special #3
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (-11 1/2)
Either Dallas guts out this win (barely) in the closing minutes OR Shaun Hill struggles big time and Big D wins by three touchdowns. Dallas isn't ready for Romo to throw a parade of TDs. TO needs a 2-TD day badly though. I fear that because I'm up against him in fantasy. More deep breaths to come shortly...

Top Ten Fantasy Insights of the Week...You Didn't Expect
1) Kurt Warner is likely on one of the top team's in your fantasy league.
2) Tom Brady isn't.
3) Peyton Manning is back. The idiots who traded him will pay.
4) LT will not be #1 next year. Adrian Peterson has that locked up.
5) Andre Johnson owners (me!) are panicking.
6) Anquan Boldin owners aren't.
7) Coles and Cotchery won't each have a good fantasy week the rest of the way. Good luck with that!
8) Santana Moss can't be started until he's 100%.
9) Kevin Boss owners might see a few more doughnuts this season.
10) NFC North defenses are mad unpredictable.

See ya next week...

Our Thoughts: Does Plax's Suspension Shift the Balance of Power in the NFC East?

Sum: No, it doesn't. As I discussed in my Pre-Season Faux-Cast, Eli can do just fine without "talent" at the wide-receiver position, plus the Giants have lots of depth there. In the second preseason game (Cleveland), Eli completed 4 of 7 pass attempts, and none of the recipients were named Plaxico, Amani or Steve Smith. In fact, in that game, none of those three "starters" even caught a pass, and that was one of the two all-important weeks of the pre-season. So, I think the Giants will be fine for the ONE game they're Plax-less. Sure, Plax and Eli have the "connection" down pat, but Eli is a team leader now, and he can lead his team without Burress. Now, if this were last season prior to Shockey's injury, or anytime before, my answer would be much different. The balance of power in the NFC East still has Cowboys-Eagles-Giants at the top with the Redskins a semi-distant second. At least for now.

Armin: Not so much, in my opinion. Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC (B)East. Washington is going to finish last. The battle will be between the Eagles and Giants. However, before Plaxico was suspended, it was not too hard...not TOO hard...for me to say that Philly was playing like the better team. We also saw Steve Smith step it up a little lately, and he looks like he could be a weapon. Toomer is usually "Old Faithful" on 3rd downs. If Eli can create an even better connection with Kevin Boss, the Giants should be ok. I guess the big question is: Will Plax become a problem?

Clement: Determining the 'Balance of Power' in the NFC East won't occur until a few more weeks. Anything before that is speculation supported with speculation. The real key in the coming weeks is which NFC East team can win a game on the road (memo to Zorn and the Skins). It's fun to call Dallas "October's Team", but everybody for years had the same issues (and made excuses) for Peyton and the Colts. It's Romo's third season and the team's defense is still gelling with new additions all over the field (Thomas, Jones, Jenkins, etc.) In reality, New York suspended Burress for far more than missing a practice during a bye week. He just earned a FAT contract and isn't representing the team well with recent reports of potentially missing several meetings and possible potential domestic disturbance issues. Washington isn't allocated for last place, not yet. Every team still needs to answer several questions before we can analyze who is who. Dallas seems at the top right now; however, the Giants are an incredible road team and that isn't something I'm willing to pass up. Eli will have a lot of work to do without Plax for a week, obviously. What I'm really interested in is how the Giants balance their platoon of 3 backs. It doesn't take a fantasy owner to realize that Brandon Jacobs needs more than 12-15 carries a game to impose his size, strength, and will on an opposing defense.

Paymon: In a word, YES, it most certainly does. At a maximum, only three NFC East will make it to the playoffs. In reality, some weaker team will rise from the scrap-heap to claim the second wild card slot. The season is not decided in September, but Dallas certainly has the look of the best September to December team in the NFL, let alone their conference and division. As noted, Philadelphia and New York were in a dead heat for second billing with most giving the Eagles a slight edge. Washington, who was expected to be the doormat of this division, have reeled off two straight wins, albeit at home, against decent competition and Jason Campbell looks worthy of being an NFL quarterback. You can think of this as a one-game suspension. You can also think of this as a potential chemistry killer. Chemistry - the very reason that the Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions. Though the Giants are off to a 3-0 start, their competition is a combined 2-7, and they had to eek out an overtime home victory against the winless Bengals. Long story short, the margin for error is too little for chemistry issues in addition to the existing set of personnel losses. Plax's ego minus his production is too big a loss, because I do not think he will let it go (even though he is likely at full fault for whatever it is that he did) after he returns to work two weeks from now. Also, his presence allows for players like Toomer to dominate on 3rd down and Smith to roam the field out of the slot.

Finding the Next Manning-Harrison Connection

I grew up in the '80s and watched the beginning, the evolution, and the end of the Montana-Rice combo. It was a thing of pure beauty from start to finish ... Joe Cool dropping back, finding the greatest WR of all time cutting across the middle, or gliding down along the sidelines, and finding a way to place the football directly into Jerry's arms, time and time again. How fitting that the one time that Joe Montana didn't win a Super Bowl MVP award, Rice was the one to receive it. Sure, Young-to-Rice resulted in more touchdowns (and was a dynamic combo in and of itself), but Montana-Rice was the original to me ... and who knows? Would Rice have developed to be so great without the tutelage of Montana? Sadly, however, that connection ended after time, and many wondered if we'd see such a bond between QB and WR ever again.

Which duo will be the next to carry the torch of awesomeness?

Of course, the late 1990s and this decade brought us the Manning-to-Harrison tandem, which proceeded to break the marks set by Montana and Rice. Like Montana and Rice, Manning and Harrison developed the bond that allowed them to know what the other was thinking before he thought it. And, of course, it led to many amazing passes and pass receptions for the viewing pleasure of NFL fans. But, alas, it seems that this bond is singing its own swan song, with Harrison missing most all of last season, and with neither of them at 100% this year. So, the question before the NFL is, will we ever see another fantastically prolific QB-WR duo? And if so, is that tandem together in the league right now? I'm going to venture out and analyze four potential duos that might soon vault to that level.

1. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall

Even though the season is young, and the two have only played one game together this season, this is the trendy pick. Both are young and dynamic players in their third seasons. Cutler has a cannon of an arm, and is a tough player who willed himself through a 40 pound weight loss, caused by diabetes, last season. His grit and playmaking abilities, in my opinion, remind me of a less-spastic Brett Favre. The question remains in his football intelligence, though that should be determined by season's end. Marshall is a playmaker through and through. Eighteen catches in his first appearance this season says enough. However, unlike Harrison, he's not the quiet type, and does have a bit of the T.O. "i love me some me" mentality, which could lead to excessive temper tantrums down the stretch, thereby diminishing his relationship with Cutler.

But, the strongest argument aside from their individual capacities, in my mind, that these two can become the next Manning-Harrison, stems from that brazen personality of Marshall. Last summer, when Marshall injured himself through his wayward antics, Cutler didn't hold back. He called out his #1 receiver in the public eye. While most may see that as a source of friction, I see it as the type of "calling out" that exists between two people who respect each other and hold one another in high regard ... like a guy telling his close friend to shape up. If I'm right in my reading of the situation, this duo should have many seasons of success before it, barring intervention by free agency.

2. Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress

This list couldn't be complete without including the younger Manning brother as a potential heir to his brother's spot. It took Eli four seasons to catch the Super Bowl win that it took Peyton nine seasons to grasp, and Archie has always said he feels Eli was the better player ... maybe there's something to that. Plaxico is no slouch either. Sure, I enjoyed referring to him as "Plexiglass" for his first few seasons, thanks to his countless injuries. But his tough play through injuries during all of last season earned him lots of respect. His talent was never a question, but he has excelled past where I had him ranked.

Eli, in his fifth year, has finally matured into a leader and has developed the calm swagger requisite for a QB to attain elite status, though he's still a total dork. That Eli has reached a higher level of play at the same time Plax has finally stepped up into a #1 WR role bodes well for the Giants and very well for the potential of keeping a Manning as part of the NFL's top QB-WR combination.

3. Trent Edwards and Lee Evans

Trent Edwards is only in his second season, but he has developed a solid relationship with his fifth-year wideout. The thing I like about this team is that Evans had three years to mature as a receiver before Edwards came along, much like Harrison having a two-year head start over Peyton Manning. This gap lets the receiver aid in tutoring the quarterback, thereby allowing Edwards the opportunity to not only learn how to be a good QB in the NFL, but also how to be a good QB for Evans.

Of course, there is less of a body of evidence to base this on than there is the Cutler-Marshall combo (the requisite "M" last name is also missing from this duo), but the situation is one that I like a lot. Even if it does not excel to the levels of Manning-Harrison greatness, it is one that will still excel for a few years.

4. Matt Ryan and Roddy White

This is probably the biggest gamble I'm taking, but then again each of these is a gamble. Matt Ryan had an awesome finish to his college career, and had an amazing start in the NFL, tossing a 62-yard touchdown pass on his very first professional throw. Roddy White is a talented fourth-year receiver who has the tools to be able to make it as a premier wideout. Unfortunately, this duo only has 120-minutes of game experience to be analyzed, so I cannot really say much. However, I can point to the six times they have connected for 113 yards, an average of nearly 19-yards per reception. That's not exactly the stuff of legends, but given the 2:1 run:pass ratio used by the Falcons thus far, the numbers aren't shabby. Ultimately my gut wants me to include them as the fourth option, given their individual talents, that White has three seasons already under his belt, and that Ryan seems to have a good football head on his shoulders.

Honorable Mention

If I were to include a fifth tandem, it would likely be Brees-Colston, however Brees has been too inconsistent over his first seven seasons and Colson will miss the next six weeks or so. I just don't see it. I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. They have a lot going for them, but I'm not sure I see the possibility of that "connection" that is necessary to reach Montana/Rice or Manning/Harrison levels. Also, there are other duos capable of great successes, such as Romo/T.O., Brady/Moss, and McNabb/Jackson. However, in each of these pairs, there is one player who has at least reached the 10-year mark on his career (T.O., Moss and McNabb), which doesn't bode well in hoping for numerous years of awesomeness as a QB-WR duo. But still, they do get some props.

Our Thoughts on Last Night's Game

Armin: Was that a tribute to Joe Gibbs? It was as if they completely abandoned the West Coast Offense in the first half, and ran the Gibbs offense. Not quite the same effect as the Missing Man Formation tribute to Sean Taylor. The Redskins didn't officially start their "Jim Zorn Era" (and foray into the WCO) until the 2nd half of the game. Watching Coach Janky Spanky (a.k.a. Clinton Portis) giving a lesson in coaching to head coach Jim Zorn on the sidelines was embarrassing. The Redskins defense dropped several easy interceptions, which Redskins fans have become accustomed to outside of Sean Taylor over the last five seasons. Jason Campbell's alternate reality has him thinking he has 10+ seconds in the pocket to make his reads. However, as bad as the Redskins played, it was only a nine-point game. Should the Giants be concerned?

Sum: That was the Redskins' 6th preseason game, and it's why I thought they should've risked injury and played their starters the entire game against Jacksonville. We've known that the Skins running game would be kept the same, but that the passing game would go Zorn-style, and what we saw last night was them still working the kinks out of that merger. To disagree with Armin, I think that Zorn listens to his team leaders, like Portis, is amazing. Here, the coach allows his star athlete, who has experienced what's going on out on the field, to report back and to give his suggestions on the adjustments they can make. It's the perfect use of consultation in the middle of a game. The Giants looked great on that first drive, but that they only put up 16 points is quite pathetic. The score in this one should've been 24-7, at least. As for my assessment that the new starters on the D-Line would struggle, well, I stunk that one up real good.

Clement: Let's drop any excuses, could-haves, should-haves, or obsolete vernacular. Instead, let's remember that this is Week 1 in the NFL. The Giants are paper thin on the defense; nevertheless, Justin Tuck will be a Pro Bowler and the rookie safety Phillips showed flashes of brilliance all over the field. Eli should've had 3-4 picks; however, several of those Skins DBs were as ill-prepared for the ball to hit their hands as the Giants wideouts were. The Giants were EXTREMELY wise to pay Plax and wiser to not underutilize Jacobs (even with Ward & Bradshaw being talented). The Giants O-Line may be the most underrated unit in the NFL. The Skins looked sloppy and that had to be expected. Jason Campbell has his 7th offensive system in 8 years and DOESN'T have the moxy/poise (yet) to be an above-average NFL QB. Santana Moss/Randle-El are obsolete options and not effectively using Cooley is a MAJOR mistake (the rookie wideouts SUCK too). The Skins are not a 6-10 team; however, they may struggle mightily if they don't start getting 3-4 game-breaking runs a week from CP. The rest of their offense is nowhere talented enough (anywhere) to put up consistent scoring numbers and get this team through a downright brutal division.

Paymon: After jumping out to a quick 16-0 lead, the Giants' offense went on autopilot. Seemingly a comfortable win the Giants, Tom Coughlin has more than enough game film to rip into his team prior to their trip to the Gateway City in Week 2. Pressure was average, tackling was average, catching was average. Special teams coverage and red zone execution after the first drive ... let's not go from there. That said, DBs and O-Linemen (and the decision to run at Jason Taylor) were solid. For the Skins, they had better get their offense in order, because the Saints and Cards can put up serious points. Jason Campbell was stoic in the pocket and nearly got his receivers' head taken off. While I feel for the discontinuity he's experienced, he is a veteran and gets paid to produce.

"Tuesday" FauxCast: Pre-Season Edition

Sitting at my day-job cubicle, I scroll through sports related sites fairly regularly (it helps get my mind off of the horrid stench emanated by the woman who sits to my right). Aside from the Olympics fiasco (I wonder if the judges were threatened with human rights abuses?), my focus has been primarily on the stories coming out of the NFL Pre-Season. Thus, I figured, why not get into pre-season form myself and bring back the FourCast a couple weeks early? (And since everyone is missing a step in the pre-season, I decided to be a day off). Let’s take a look at what’s been hitting the No Fun League over the past few days (and hopefully protect me from Stinky McGee for a few more minutes).


1. Tony Dungy changes his last name to “Belichick”

Okay, so he really didn’t change last names, but given the Belichick-esque routine with regard to Peyton Manning’s condition, he should get an award. So often Dungy gets praise from the “media” and fans for being a class act, while Belichick has his name dragged through the mud (even before spygate). Dungy himself has even seemingly accepted the pedestal on which he’s been placed, chastising the Pats Head Coach for his questionable methods. However, throughout last season, Dungy never once properly addressed the injury to Marvin Harrison, letting opposing teams (not to mention countless fantasy owners) prepare for no reason. Wait … doesn’t everyone (legitimately) give crap to Belichick for doing that with regard to Tom Brady’s “shoulder injury”?

This pre-season, Dungy seems to be acting coy with regard to Peyton’s knee and its, now missing, bursa sac. Could Peyton’s knee brace be this year’s version of Brady’s boot?


2. You’re doin a heckuva job there, Brownie

Ronnie Brown began the pre-season as the top running back for the Miami Dolphins. Sure, everyone assumed he’d be splitting the carries with Ricky Williams, but we also figured he’d get most of the touches. Now we know (thanks to the folks at ProFootballTalk.com) that Brown is listed as the #2 back on the ‘Fins depth chart. The #2 overall selection in the 2005 NFL Draft came out of Auburn with lots of hype. Unfortunately, his injury plagued career has only seen him get 1,000 yards rushing once and has yet to see him play all 16 games. Maybe he just likes being #2?


3. Depth at Wide-Receiver is for pansies

While Peyton limps around (or “limps” around, we don’t know … friggin Dungy), the “other Manning” continues to show us that he really doesn’t need much in the way of teammates. A season after winning the Super Bowl without the help of the talented (but loud-mouthed) Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey, Eli is showing us he really doesn’t need depth or talent at the wide-receiver position (Note: Somewhere Donovan McNabb is taking notes). On Monday night, Eli shredded the Browns secondary for 2 touchdowns to Domenick Hixon, in all completing 4 of 7 passes to only Hixon and Sinorice Moss. Those stats, of course, do not include a 53-yard pass interference gain on a pass to Moss that set up the first TD to Hixon.

All-in-all, the G-men only needed to complete passes to five different receivers, none of whom were named Plaxico, Amani, Mario or Steve Smith.


4. The Truth?!? Al Davis can’t handle the truth!

Al Davis has forever been the scorn of head coaches. He bring them in, has them do his bidding without complaint and then disposes of them. Kinda sounds like Dick Cheney and his hunting pals. Well, maybe the Vice-President should think twice before inviting Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin out to hunt geese. Kiffin, long rumored to be a lame-duck coach this year, has forgotten all about the “thou shalt not bemoan Al Davis” motto of the Oakland Raiders (yeah, the “Commitment to Excellence” line is just a farce). In comments to reporters earlier this week, good ole’ Lane whined about the lack of depth on his team and further bitched about the management’s lack of play in the waiver/free agent market this pre-season.

Is Kiffin just trying to pass the buck so as to not scare away potential future employers? Probably. But hey, I give the kid (yes, “kid”) credit for having the testicular fortitude to give the finger to Davis . If Brett does run for president, Kiffin can be his renegade/maverick veep choice.

2007 NFL Predictions: Review/Analysis

Last summer, I made my preseason predictions for every NFL team’s final record, the playoff teams and the Super Bowl. Y’all stuck with me as I made three sets of picks: before the draft, after the draft (and once free agency cooled down) and finally just before the start of the regular season. This year, there are just going to be two posts. This post, in which I’ll berate and applaud my 2007 picks (where appropriate), and a post devoted to my 2008 picks, due sometime before September 4.

Just as a reminder, I made these picks by printing out the 2007 NFL regular season schedule and selecting the winner of each of the 256 games. Tiebreakers for playoff spots and seedings were determined based on those selections per the NFL guidelines. No HGH or steroids were taken in making these picks.

NFC
NFC East *Philadelphia 11-5 **Dallas 10-6 Washington 8-8 NY Giants 4-12 Considering that all teams finished 8-8 or higher in this division, I didn’t do so bad … with the exception of the G-Men. Yeah, sorry, screwed the pooch on that one! Who knew that Eli would grow a pair and score the biggest upset in Super Bowl history? I still think I get some minor props for only being 1-game off on the ‘Skins record when peeps mocked me for it.	NFC North *Chicago 13-3 Green Bay 9-7 Detroit 5-11 Minnesota 2-14 Here’s where I should’ve told y’all off and stuck to my 11-5 record for the Pack (from my 1st set of picks). Instead I paid some attention to the bashing by some “anonymous” poster who bashed the number of wins I had for them. And why the hell did I drink the Chicago kool-aid? Did I really trust Grossman/Benson? And, yes Vikes fans … my bad.
NFC South *New Orleans 11-5 Carolina 9-7 Tampa Bay 5-11 Atlanta 4-12 I got the Falcons record dead-on (pat on back). Everything else was pretty crappy. I thought the loss of Simeon Rice would have affected the Bucs negatively … guess I was wrong. Though, I still wonder if the Saints could’ve finished 11-5 if Deuce hadn’t gone down after week 3…	NFC West *Seattle 10-6 **San Francisco 10-6 St. Louis 8-8 Arizona 7-9 Initially I had the Rams at 6-10 … and even that was too good for them! I totally overshot the ‘49ers (d’oh … so much for Alex Smith), but got the Seahawks dead on both in record and place in the division. The Cardinals did just about how I expected in terms of their record … but who knew that they would’ve finished 2nd?
AFC
AFC East *New England 12-4 NY Jets 8-8 Buffalo 5-11 Miami 3-13 Well … I got the top and bottom of this division right, just messed up the placing of the Bills and Jets. In terms of records, I was actually more accurate with the Fins and Bills (2 games off) than the Jets and Pats (4 games off). Though, I would like to point out that Mr. Anonymous (from the GB discussion above) also bashed my New England pick here, claiming the Pats wouldn’t even win a playoff game. Good job, buddy.	AFC North *Baltimore 13-3 **Cincinnati 11-5 Pittsburgh 10-6 Cleveland 4-12 Aside from getting the Steelers record exactly right, I fudged the bucket everywhere else in the AFC North. I had this division pegged as the strongest in the AFC, but was dead wrong … and Brian Billick paid the price (sorry Bri Bri). I finished a whopping 18 games off the pace overall in the AFC North. You may now commence your berating.
AFC South *Indianapolis 12-4 Tennessee 9-7 Jacksonville 6-10 Houston 5-11 I got the easy picks right in the South … Indy first and Houston last. But I underestimated the entire division (primarily thanks to my overestimation of the North … friggin Ravens). Not much else to say here, other than I blew it by blaming the Jaguars for sticking with Garrard. And while I did think that Tennessee would be in the playoff hunt, I didn’t give them enough credit to make the post-season. Shamed again.	AFC West *San Diego 13-3 **Denver 12-4 Kansas City 4-12 Oakland 3-13 The only division that I picked correctly from top to bottom. However, the main thing I’d like to point out is that the Kansas City Chiefs actually finished 4-12. Why is this important? Oh … I’ll tell you why. In my initial picks, I had KC at 4-12, yet “Chris” from “Arrowhead Pride,” opted to be a homer and a dick combined. I think I might just quote him: “the Chiefs will win more than 4 games. I will take a bet on this.” Well Chris, all I can say is … Pay up, biatch! I will gladly take a win here.

Exact Records predictions: Four (Atlanta, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Kansas City (in bold just for Chris)).

Records picks within 2 games: Fourteen (Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona, Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Tennessee, San Diego, Kansas City and Oakland).

Exact Division Rank Predicted: Twelve

Playoff Teams Predicted Correctly: Five

Wildcard Playoffs

San Francisco over Seattle – San Fran didn’t make it and Seattle beat Washington decisively in round one.

Dallas over Philadelphia – Philly didn’t make it and Dallas had a first round bye.

New England over Cincinnati – Cincy stayed home and the Pats had a bye.

Indianapolis over Denver – Denver stayed home and Indy had a bye.

Divisional Playoffs

Dallas over Chicago – Chicago … losers. Dallas also earned that title in the Divisional round by losing to the Giants.

San Francisco over New Orleans – umm … yeah …

New England over Baltimore – New England DID win here, but they took out the Jaguars instead (so much for “Anonymous” saying that neither of my Super Bowl teams would win a playoff game … biatch #2).

San Diego over Indianapolis – So I wrote it … so it happened.

Conference Finals

San Francisco over Dallas – Yeah … “Anonymous” can gloat over this one … San Fran was a wasted pick by yours truly, but I did have the balls to take a chance.

New England over San Diego – Again … so I wrote it … so it happened.

Super Bowl

New England over San Francisco – friggin’ Eli.

Once more ... Just for Chris :-)

NFC Championship Game Preview: New York Giants at Green Bay

New York Do’s and Don’t’s – Chris Clement

Do balance the offensive game-plan as brilliantly as you have the previous two playoff match-ups. Eli went 12-18 in the passing game while Jacobs (14 carries) and Bradshaw (6 carries) shared duties in the rush game. While 163 yards through the air and 88 on the ground will not be enough against Green Bay’s red-hot attack, balancing the equation will allow the Giants to control the clock…which keeps Favre and company off the field for as long as possible.

Do open up the playbook early and often. Winning without targeting the big play to Plaxico isn’t likely to work for a second-straight week. Not to mention, it’s highly unlikely that All-Pro caliber cornerbacks Al Harris & Charles Woodson won’t make similar mistakes to what Cowboys defenders did. As they did by flying all over the field last weekend against the Seahawks, the Packers may overplay a few deep routes. Since the Pack are completely capable of putting up 30+ in rough weather, the Giants may need to match touchdown-for-touchdown in the first half.

Do thank the front office for allowing Tom Coughlin another year with the team. The absence of Tiki Barber and the relatively capable handling of the Strahan “holdout” look more than steady with the proper perspective. Ditto with a slew of injuries, a shaky Eli, and the prospects of play vs. sit in Week 17 against the Pats. I never thought I would say this, but the Giants were right to see Tiki leave and Tom stay.

Don’t allow R.W. McQuarters to see too much of Greg Jennings. White-hot in the regular season and now the playoffs, Jennings is an 80-yard touchdown reception threat every time a drive starts for the Packers. With Sam Madison, Kevin Dockery, and now Aaron Ross banged up, a lot will be asked of McQuarters. Pairing him with the likes of free agent rookie (from Howard University, of all places) Geoffrey Pope may be a glaring weakness that Favre tries to expose immediately. This spells even more responsibility for the linebackers, safeties, and the entire defensive coaching staff. Good luck.

Don’t fear Ryan Grant. As rookies will show you often, one minute they’ve fumbled their first two meaningful snaps and the next they have 201 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Grant’s numbers over the last eleven weeks surpass everyone, including LT. While running at home, potentially in the muck, is tempting to Grant, the Giants survived a dominant Marion Barber, III (100+ yards in the first half) and shut down the bruising back in the second half. While Grant is a different runner, the results must be similar this weekend.

Don’t stop believing. I firmly believe the Giants felt they would beat the Patriots. Ditto with the Bucs and Cowboys. Now, while every team must exude confidence in order to win, the Giants are basking in it. Don’t stop that train of thought. Not even for a second.

Green Bay Do’s and Don’t’s – Armin Mohajeri

Do let Brett Favre do what he does best and sling the rock long. Go for some big plays early. Donald Driver, Gregg Jennings and James Jones can eat the Giants secondary alive. There is nothing to fear about the Giants secondary other than the fact that they're been playing better than they truly are during the run the team has made. A couple of early TD passes by Favre should send the Giants secondary into a downward spiral as they come back to earth.

Do have confidence in your DBs. Woodson and Harris can shut down Plaxico and Amani. This is a match up of veteran WRs against veteran CBs. The veteran CBs won't succumb as easily to precise route running. With Nick Collins and Atari Bigby stepping up this season, they can work their switches in coverage and run a variation of the Cover 2 with the luxury of a linebacker covering TE Kevin Boss (who isn't going to win any foot races). This will allow the Packers front seven to go after Eli.

Do it for Brett. As cheesy as it sounds (and no, John Madden is not pushing me to say this), the Packers have to dedicate themselves to getting their captain back to the Super Bowl. Mark Schlereth said it best during an interview: one of the great motivating factors for his two Super Bowl rings with the Broncos was the fact that the team pulled together and said, "If we can't do it for ourselves, let's do it for John." Brett Favre has accomplished so much; he has dealt with so much adversity; he has suffered so much pain. Yet, he gets out there on the field and performs. He may already have a ring, but he deserves a shot to earn another.

Don't forget the RBs that got you here. Ryan Grant has proven to be a big-play back. He is as critical to the success of the Packers as any player on that squad this season. While the big plays should be flowing, the meat of the game should be using Grant (and Brandon Jackson who's had a few nice plays of late) to wear down the Giants front seven. Wearing down Strahan, Umenyiora and Tuck by constantly running at them will go a long way towards keeping them off Favre late in the game. Of course, unless there's some sort of sack record that Favre feels Strahan needs to break. Then, all bets are off.

Don't let Eli Manning beat you. The Cowboys had the right idea, though they still lost in the end. Go after Eli. Knock him down. It's highly doubtful that Eli will be able to pull off last second heroics if he's hearing footsteps. This will be the test to see whether Eli is maturing, or if he's the same old Eli that eventually folds under the pressure when his team needs him the most. Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders should send two LBs to help Aaron Kampman in the pass rush. Keep an eye on Brady Poppinga, a former DE who the Giants should not forget.

Don't believe the hype. The Packers are the better team. However, the second they buy into the Giants and their hot play, the game is over. The Packers should take note of the Giants game against the Cowboys. The Cowboys played down to the Giants' level. This is how Cinderella teams are born. If they can overlook the hype and play the Giants for the team they are, the Packers shouldn't have too much problem putting them away. Be confident, yet not over-confident. However, this is much easier said than done.

Key Matchups - Sum Mehrnama

When New York has the ball

RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw vs. LBs Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk

Normally this paragraph would be about establishing and/or stopping the run. However, after witnessing the intriguing idea to lineup Jacobs and Bradshaw as wide receivers on numerous occasions, this is now a paragraph about the passing game. With Jeremy Shockey out, the Giants needed something different in their offense. Thus we had everyone utter a collective gasp of awe when Brandon Jacobs lined up wide and caught a pass as a TE or WR would normally catch. Barnett and Hawk were the better pass-defending LBs for the Packers this year, and they’ll need to be ready for the Giants duo to run underneath receiving routes. If they aren’t ready, then Eli Manning will hit some easy passes to his RBs and will hit his stride early.

When Green Bay has the ball

WR Donald Driver vs. the Entire Giants Secondary

Somehow, someway, the Giants secondary played better on Sunday after Aaron Ross exited the game and left them with exactly zero of their starting CBs in the game. Perhaps Ross’ heroics in using his injuried shoulder to bring down Marion Barber, III inspired his teammates, or perhaps it was the sense of urgency. Regardless, the secondary stepped up at that point (and also received a huge assist from the front-seven pressuring Romo). Unfortunately for the Giants, I think the injuries will leave their secondary exposed this weekend and that spells out an amazing opportunity for Donald Driver. New York’s corners will tire quickly and Driver should be able to capitalize for a career day … unless they manage to re-create that sense of team that carried them through the second half at Dallas. If that happens, then Driver will have to serve as a decoy in order to free-up Greg Jennings.

Intangibles – Sum Mehrnama

Snow

As cliché as it is, the weather is a huge intangible for this Sunday’s game in Green Bay. Last week, the frozen tundra resulted in the sack-happy Seahawks managing only one sack (which should’ve just been ruled a tackle for no gain). This week that same snow will require Steve Spagnuolo to devise some ingenious method of pressuring Brett Favre. Slippery conditions will slow down Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan and Kawika Mitchell as they rush the corners. Furthermore, Green Bay knows how to handle the snow. New York’s experience in this weather is greatly limited … in fact, the Giants may want to travel to the greater Boston area to practice in the 20 inches of snow they have up there.

Calm Quarterbacking

Both signal-callers have been prone to succumbing and thriving off of emotion during their careers. Eli Manning has become more accustomed to letting his emotions rattle him than inspire him, while Brett Favre (neé Madden) has both won and lost games due to emotional swings. This outcome of this game depends heavily upon which quarterback is more able to rely on calm and logical decision-making. The instant either of them becomes flustered, a mistake will be imminent. Favre returned to greatness this season by buying into a systematic game-plan rather than relying on his gun-slinging past. The Giants proved that they can beat a quarterback who resorts to gun-slinging (cough*Romo*cough). Eli, on the other hand, has seemingly stolen Peyton’s mojo the past three weeks and become, dare I say it, the better Manning. But we’ve seen his meltdowns far too often to expect them to be gone for good. In a sport that is dominated by clichéd mantras, it’s no surprise that these quarterbacks need to remember that slow and steady wins the race.

Final Predictions

Armin: New York wins, 23 – 20

Clement: Green Bay wins, 33 – 24

Summy: Green Bay wins, 24 – 21

Pick-Six: Greatest Hits of the Millennium

In recent years, there has always been one or two major storylines after the 1^st-round of the draft is completed. It’s not always who the first pick or the last pick of the round was. Often it has nothing to do with a popular team (per say the Dallas Cowboys) or a quieter team (such as the Jacksonville Jaguars). Major trades even seem quiet once proper perspective sets into place. Yet, some stories have the ability to do more than just linger.

Here are a pick-six of majorly important (often bizarre and/or crazy) stories, one each from this millennium’s worth of drafts, that did just a little more than linger in our collective memories…

2006: The Houston Texans bypass selecting hometown QB Vince Young or stud-RB Reggie Bush
-Houston seemed a lock before the season to target a guy like UVA tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson. If a QB or USC guy was to be taken in his play…it had to be Matt Leinart. That was the case, at least until Reggie Bush & Vince Young dueled for the Heisman (Bush winning) and an unforgettable Rose Bowl (Young winning). Still sticking with David Carr at that point (who is now a backup in Carolina), Houston let everyone know early on that Vince wouldn’t be returning to Houston. As for Reggie Bush, the team seemed hot/cold over the can’t-miss-kid for weeks leading up to the draft. Combine initial trepidations with a trio of other factors, including: Bush’s potential $-scandal at USC, contract problems, and Mario Williams just dying to sign a friendly-contract…and the defensive end from NC State signed his rather stunning rookie contract the night before the Draft.

End Result: Houston may never live down passing up on Young or Bush, no matter how special “Super” Mario may become.

Not so Super was it?
Source: TexansRock.com

2005: California QB Aaron Rodgers freefalls from a potential #1-overall pick all the way to Green Bay at #24
-Aaron Rodgers seemed the next Jeff Tedford QB ready to be picked in the top-half, if not the first with the top-pick, in the NFL Draft. Many pundits had San Fran targeting the junior during the earliest weeks of draft speculation. However, potential contract issues and Utah’s Alex Smith pushed Rodgers out of the #1-slot come draft time. Yet, nobody could’ve guessed just how fall Rodgers fell. Passing up team after team, without any real fervor from any NFL teams to move up or back into the 1^st-round to select him, the Packers (with Chris Berman annoyingly pleading for them to do so) seemingly selected the heir-apparent to a guy named Favre. Just don’t tell Brett that. In his first two seasons, Rodgers has barely seen the field and broke his leg last year. The jury is still out on this kid to say the least.

End Result: Rodgers lost millions of dollars and may, in fact, never get a real shot at the Green Bay job or a real-starting gig. It’s perplexing when you actually consider it.

The number of quarters Rodgers has played equals that number.
Source: Orlando Sentinel

2004: Ole Miss QB Eli Manning refuses to be a Charger; forcing a trade to the New York Giants
-They drafted him anyways. Yet, you just had to know, the Giants would find a way. So they parted with multiple picks (including Phillip Rivers at #4) and got their man. He made the playoffs his first full-year as a starter…and got blasted by the Panthers. These days he’s getting killed by the New York media and many are wondering if he’s just sublimely average as a QB. As for Rivers and the Chargers, while they haven’t won a playoff game either, they enjoyed an NFL-best 14-2 record and used extra picks on guys named Merriman and Kaeding (so overrated, by the way) and seem perfectly happy with how things transpired.

End Result: I still believe nobody involved, maybe save Ernie Acorsi, would change their mind about this move. Eli is still plenty talented and San Diego got more than enough in return for their 1^st-pick.

Fond memories in the Manning-household.
Source: Orlando Sentinel

2003: Minnesota fails to turn their pick in on-time, prompting Jacksonville & Carolina to jump in front of them with their first-round selections.
-Pandemonium that actually sped up the usually slower-than-possible 1^st round of 2003. With the clock actually ticking off the final seconds and no card in the hand of the commissioner, the rule-book was wide open as Jacksonville quickly nabbed Byron Leftwich (remember, Minnesota had Daunte Culpepper already) and Carolina targeted Jordan Gross (remember, Minnesota took Bryant McKinnie the previous draft). Baltimore was soon behind with Terrell Suugs; yet, Minnesota got the man they initially intended to select…Oklahoma State defensive tackle Kevin Williams.

End Result: Jacksonville’s QB is still up in the air. Gross is talented, but not a Pro-Bowler. Williams may be the best DT in the NFL. Suggs was a sensational steal at #10. In the end, nobody loss; especially the Vikings.

No doubt that Ziggi won't except a moment's lapse.
Credit: Glorious Nation

2002: The Houston Texans, the NFL’s newest expansion team, select Fresno State QB David Carr with the first selection.
-It seemed one of the easier #1 picks to target. I, for one, went blue in the face demanding the franchise select the best-player-available and freakish-talent Julius Peppers out of UNC. While you need a franchise QB, Tim Couch alone proved expansion teams and rookie-starting QBs doesn’t work very well.

End Result: Houston seemed thrilled, yet somehow in perspective this draft cost them Peppers (they ended up taking Mario Williams) and perhaps Vince Young (they kept Carr). Hindsight my friends. Hindsight.

Carr spent more time in this position than any other in Houston.
Credit: Texans Rock

2001: Atlanta stockpiles picks to trade up to the #1-slot to select Virginia Tech QB Michael Vick
-San Diego seemed to balk a bit on the idea that whomever had the #1-pick “had to select the Hokie QB”. Instead, they wheeled down four picks, to #5 of course, and selected freakishly talented (yet, still somewhat unknown) TCU RB LaDanian Tomlinson. Atlanta opened their arms to Vick and didn’t feel it lost too much having to land their future franchise-QB and marketing-machine.

End Result: I’d love to sit down and actually put numbers together and scenarios to see if Atlanta would still make the move for Vick again. After the win at Lambeau, it seemed amazing. Now that LT is considered one of the G.O.A.T. already, there is a lot more debate. Yet, you can count the playoff wins up. Vickà 2 & LTà0-2. For now, it’s not the wash some consider it to be. Not yet, at least.

...before the days of the pitbull-ring...
Credit: CNNSI

2000: The New York Jets set an NFL-record with 4 1^st-round selections.
-Mainly through the Keyshawn-deal, the Jets (in need of a roster makeover) were adamant at not compiling any picks to move up. Instead, they were looking for depth, playmakers, and key ingredients for a team on the rise. Or so they thought. First up was Tennessee DE Shaun Ellis (#12), freakish DE John Abraham (#13) of South Carolina, followed by Marshall QB Chad Pennington (#18), and finally West Virginia TE Anthony Becht (#27). Busy first-day for the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS.

End Result: Interestingly enough, Lav Coles was their 3^rd-round selection this draft. ¾ isn’t bad in the crapshoot of the NFL Draft. Ellis has been a stalwart and an massive rush/run combo (always just off the Pro-Bowl radar), Abraham was sometimes more flash than talent (yet ended up netting future Pro Bowl C Nick Mangold in a 2006 NFL Draft Trade), and Pennington (2-playoff victories) has seemed to overcome a ton of injuries and been a good QB for the Jets during his tenure (when healthy). As for Becht, he wasn’t much at all…yet outside of Keith Bullock (at LB), there isn’t too much to realistically pine over.

Things are a lot better in NYC when Chad isn't in this uniform.
Credit: NFL.com

What will be the story this year? A massive trade for someone to move up to Calvin Johnson at #2 [Atlanta, Denver, Washington, or Tampa Bay maybe?], what Oakland does with that 1^st-pick, a potential free-fall for a big-name talent [Okoye, Peterson, or Adams maybe?], or something we may have never expected???

Until next time…

Note: Expect the Mock either very late tonight or bright and early tomorrow.