InClement Weather: Fantasy Football Speak [Part I of III]

Most of us, who would write for or read this blog, are fantasy football "players". In fact, many of us have been at it for over a decade now (some even longer). On top of that, many of us have multiple leagues we interact with yearly.

With that in mind, I'm going to serve up a series of 3 posts this upcoming week. Some might be surprised to hear that, as I'm leaving for Las Vegas to get married Monday and enjoy a week-long honeymoon in the City of Sin.

Don't worry, it won't be one of "those" Las Vegas trips.
Credit: ThisRecording.com

Don't worry, I've already written all three posts and will sneak the other two in at later dates, in-between Armin's finishing touches on the SWOTs (is that correct?).

First up, let's look at some basics of the league (commonly known as NOVA Fantasy Football).
Since it's near impossible to find a magazine or reputable website which has mock drafts with 2 starting quarterback parameters, this is a rare treat. So enjoy it!!!

Basics
A) 10-teams.
B) 18-round ladder draft. [Ex: 1 to 10, 10 to 1, 1 to 10, 10 to 1, and so on.]
C) Starters include 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, & 1 DEF. 8 reserve sports.

Draft
D) Max of 1 1/2 mins/pick for the first 5 rounds, max of 1 min/pick for rounds 6 through 11, and max of 45 seconds (that's right!) for rounds 12 through 18.
Note: No keepers or holdovers either. Not in this league, at least.

2-Starting QB Rules
E) If a backup becomes a starter and you have 4 starting QBs, you must drop/trade one w/i 24 hours.
F) If you have 3 starters on your roster, you may NOT pick up a 4th starter with the intention of working a trade. Picking up a starting QB when you already have 3 can only be done if you are dropping one of your 3 current starters.
G) This also works for defenses and kickers. Yes, we once had an owner with 3 kickers, potentially tabbing another. Lowball, but savvy.

Draft Lottery Bonuses
H) Separate pick'em and survivor leagues give each winner an extra ping pong ball (which I literally draw 5 minutes before the draft).

Enough talk, let's look at the first three rounds (with a few brief observations):

He might not have gotten the Madden cover, but Peterson was an easy selection for #1 overall.
Credit: DeviantArt.com

Round #1:
1) Adrian Peterson
2) Tom Brady
3) DeAngelo Williams
4) LaDanian Tomlinson
5) Drew Brees
6) Matt Forte
7) Michael Turner
8) Maurice Jones-Drew
9) Peyton Manning
10) Steven Jackson

Comments: A-Pete was a lock for #1 (despite a near-trade between slots #1 and #2), Brady was taken #2 by the same owner (Pay) last year, Williams surprised a few at #3, I've never owned LT so took the risk for the potential reward at #4, Brees at #5 proves the value of QBs in 2-starting QB leagues, Forte seemed perfect for the 6-slot, Turner slid a bit to 7 (more than a few question his reaction to a season of 350+ carries), MJD has been ranked top 3 on a ton of sites (Yahoo! especially), Manning goes to a familiar owner, and Action Jackson is someone I was afraid to even mention.

How many of you had Matt Ryan going in the second round? One of our league members did. Surprised?
Credit: Madden-School.com

Round #2:
1) Matt Ryan
2) Chris Johnson
3) Aaron Rogers
4) Brian Westbrook
5) Phillip Rivers
6) Frank Gore
7) Brandon Jacobs
8) Larry Fitzgerald
9) Randy Moss
10) Kurt Warner

Comments: Ryan at #11 overall was shocking (it was a huge Falcons fan), CJ at #12 was a fallback after Jackson went already, Rogers before Rivers might be due to it being a Packers fan, Westbrook at #14 depends on that ankle, Rivers at #15 was the second-half fantasy MVP last season, Gore quietly went under the radar (again), Jacobs returns to a happy owner (me!), Fitzgerald last longer than expected and is the first wideout taken, Moss follows at #19 to combo with Tom Brady (uh oh), and Kurt Warner is drafted at least 100 spots (or more) earlier this year.

Two Texans went in Round 3. I suppose this mock-cover ruins the surprise on one of them. But can YOU name the other? Can YOU!?!?
Credit: PhotoBucket.com

Round #3:
1) Greg Jennings
2) Marion Barber
3) Steve Slaton
4) Tony Romo
5) Clinton Portis
6) Donovan McNabb
7) Carson Palmer
8) Ronnie Brown
9) Andre Johnson
10) Calvin Johnson

Comments: Jennings is the 3rd overall receiver taken (surprising?), Barber in the 3rd round surprised many, Slaton has incredible upside at #23, Romo was a borderline grab over McNabb, Portis returns to a Redskin owner (Goings), McNabb is one of the last rock solid QBs left, Palmer may be the ultimate "make or break" QB this fantasy season, Ronnie Brown is in a contract year and the Wildcat offense is intriguing to say the least, Andre Johnson at #29 almost seems criminal, and #30 is Calvin Johnson (who is a Lion, but an absolute beast nonetheless).

So there you have it. Feel free to post some comments of your own.

Next post I'll be taking a look at 10 make-or-break middle round selections (one per team) who may have a lot to say with fantasy success or suckitude.
After that, I'll finish up the series with 10 surprising drops for players. This means I'll target 10 guys who I expected to go much earlier than they did. Much much earlier in some cases.

Until then...

Clement's Weekly Picks & Prognostications...Week 17

So it's come down to this.

For those of you not jumping off the ledge, you should be fantasy-free (no true league has anything going on in Week 17) and the official stretch-drive to the playoffs ends (or does it truly begin) this weekend.

Best of luck to all of you on the "playoff" bubble.
Except for Pats fans, of course.

Let's cut the politicking (is that a word?) and jump into the fun!!!

I'm not picking the Lions game. To be honest, even I'm not rooting for them to go 0-16.
That, my friends, is the ultimate pitty.
Credit: New York Times

NFL Picks: 41-30 [Pretty terrible at 58% success, even if they aren't the "gimmes". Terrible, indeed.]
Upset Special: 14-11 [This record was once close to 5-10, so the 3-0 weekend deserves a BOO YA.]

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+6.5)

Sadly, we won't get to see JP LOSS-man's smiling face on the bench this week.
Credit: DayLife.com

New England smells the playoffs and knows it can put a TON of pressure on the Dolphins. Interestingly, both Miami and the Jets should know the final of this game before their kickoff. How much of an impact that is scares me. Pats in a ROUT. I'm talking 30+ point-W.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1 1/2)

Is Armin's old "draft-day" man crush ready to be a Week 17 factor? Armin???
Credit: Google Images

This is a tough game as both teams took major steps backwards. Duh, Clement. Anyways, I'm less inclined to penalize Philly because they were overachieving a bit and the Redskin D has been stout all season. Dallas ran into an angry Baltimore team and it's pass rush didn't seem too affected. While McNabb will obviously be under constant pressure, I wonder if the Dallas O - especially without a 100% Marion Barber III - can click enough in hostile Philly to earn the W and thus a playoff spot. The soap opera won't end...yet. Dallas wins somehow, someway.

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texas (-3)

The only beards worse than Kyle Orton's...maybe.
Credit: MissionCalifornia.com

Houston can finish out the season in style, but they've done that before. Meanwhile, Chicago has to avoid scoreboard watching with the Vikes playing a resting-Giant squad also at 1pm. Somehow, I see Hester making a big play or two and the Bears playing inspired football. Even if it leads to no playoff reward.

Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)

We need to see more coaching - and less talking about his "master motivating" - before I get sick.
Credit: ESPN.go.com

Singletary appears ready to lock up with the Niners for a few years; meanwhile, Zorn appears to have at least one more year in San Fran. I see Portis and Campbell playing for nothing but pride (maybe contract $$$ for Campbell) and the Skins eeking out a road W.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore (-12 1/2)

Mr. Garrard. All Jet fans pray the game's lasting moments this weekend aren't like last week's.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Ravens roll, but not by 13+. The Jags will attempt to grind it out and make a statement for next year. Spoiling the Ravens' season might be the perfect offseason "bright spot" for an otherwise depressing season.

Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets (-2 1/2)

So what's the over/under on Clemens taking 1 snap?
Credit: CNNSI.com

Jets lose and the fans may cry S-U-C-K. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kellen Clemens take some snaps, even before the 4th quarter. The Jets can't pressure the QB, force turnovers, or drive downfield (outside of the first drive). Unless they have a pick-six (or two) in mind, Miami is winning the AFC East. Who'd have thunk that one?

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9)

Seriously, where has AC been this season? WHERE!?!?
Credit: Google Images

Call me crazy, but I don't see a San Diego 35-10 victory. Of course, winning by even 10 is likely. Thus this tricky spread. Nevertheless, I won't call for the Denver road upset; however, I suspect San Diego will be complacent in the 1st half and then win in the 2nd. I'd feel so much better if this spread were 10...


Best of luck to all this Sunday. Even if the "playoffs" for you will be nothing more than NFL Draft prep...

Tuesday FourCast: Week 16

In recent weeks, Sum and Armin have done laps around me with creative and catchy FourCasts. I have to admit, I've done a little too much ranting - which is always much better suited for "InClement Weather" - and haven't been able to leave the kiddie pool creativity-wise.

That needs to change...I'm just not sure if I can do it today.
I'll try a theme, but as usual it's going to be a little too self-serving, cliched, and gimmicky.
Hey, it's all I can do!!!

I know...let's butcher a classic (holiday) Christmas song!!!

1) On the 1st Day of Christmas...
You know the rest. Basically, the "mother partridge" feigns injury to decoy predators from her helpless nestlings. Sounds a lot like Bill Parcells with (last year's 1-15) Miami Dolphins to me. During the offseason he set his claws into the organization and did a few things many didn't agree with: hire Tony Sporano, trade Jason Taylor, give big money to Ernest Wilford, and bring over ex-Cowboys like Anthony Fasano/Jason Ferguson. Well, all of the above worked except choice C. Nevertheless, the team is 10-5 and in total control of its playoff destiny. Parcells also had the foresight to keep Chad Pennington in the AFC East with a very manageable 2-year contract. It's been a quiet year for Parcells in Miami only in front of the microphone. His impact has been felt like an after shock on the field.

2) On the 3rd Day of Christmas...
Three turtle doves. Home Alone 2 didn't get it right; instead, it's the three theological virtues. In reference (sorta), what three NFL stars got by on their virtues - instead of their performance - to make the Pro Bowl?
A) Brett Favre had no business being invited to Honolulu, especially after the past month. Despite his team being 6-8, Phillip Rivers leads the NFL in touchdown passes AND Matt Cassell has only struggled in Blitzburgh (who hasn't?) leading his team to 10-5 with a surprisingly deft touch and quicker feet.
B) Clinton Portis was my NFL MVP two months ago and has played as bruised and battered as any back I can remember in recent memory. Nevertheless, Brandon Jacobs - despite missing two weeks - is the heart and soul of the best team in the NFL. While I love Eli, we saw what the Giants were sans-B Jacobs the past two weeks. Insert him this past week into the starting lineup and you notice how much free space Jacobs softens up for Derrick Ward (200+ yards!) in the second half and OT. DeAngelo Williams fans (20 TDs!) might have a legitimate beef too. Portis was a little too irrelevant the past five or six weeks on a team that rode him to 6-2 and then collapsed. While you can blame most of that on Zorn & Campbell, I'll take Jacobs in the Pro Bowl over Portis. This is gonna cause some HEAT!
C) John Abraham needs to be a Pro Bowler. He's stayed healthy (somehow) and has piled up 16.5 sacks and forced 4 fumbles. He is the havoc causer on an emerging Atlanta D. While it's tough to argue with the DEs taken before him, I might cost-cut Jared Allen or even Julius Peppers in exchange for the less talent-surrounded Abraham. He's done more with much less. That means Honolulu for me in a close DE-race.

3) On the 6th Day of Christmas...
The six days of creation of the world. Got it. The first six picks of the recent NFL Draft have had relatively quiet seasons. Almost too quiet. #1 overall pick Jake Long was 50/50 with Dolphin fans on draft day, yet has been a steady contributor and should be for the next 5-6 years (or more, let's not guarantee 10 yet). 2nd overall pick Chris Long has been quieted by a 2-13 team; however, has shown promise and potential at the defensive end position (played in all 15 games, 4 sacks). 3rd pick Matt Ryan - the exception to my rule and my emerging man crush - has the Falcons - yes, the Atlanta Falcons - in the NFL playoffs and somehow eligible for the NFC South division title and maybe even a first-round bye. I don't want to hear any CRAP about the first-to-worst rule in that division either. Many thought this team would struggle for decades after the Vick-debacle (like me!). Fourth pick Darren "Run DMC" McFadden has shown two things: A) An ability to play throw pain B) The need to be in a platoon or at least 2-back system. Of course, he is a RAIDER, so his career may be over with before his rookie contract ends. Fifth pick Glenn Dorsey was considered an absolute steal 24 hours after the draft; yet - especially with the trading of Jared Allen - he is all alone on a relatively talentless KC defensive front. He has 1 sack, but it isn't fair to label him after one season. Vernon Gholston came in with HUGE question marks and has struggled mightily in the Jet 3-4 system (12 tackles and 0 sacks ALL YEAR). He is quickly being labeled a bust, yet has gotten praise from LT (the real one) and will need an offseason or two before he's out of New York and a draft-day villain.

4) On the 10th Day of Christmas...
Ten Lords-a leaping. I almost forgot it was in reference to the 10 Commandments. Sounds like a good basis for fantasy football banter.
A) If Kurt Warner got you to your fantasy championship game, he sure didn't win it for you.
B) If you had a non-Ray Rice Raven RB starting, you sure loved that 4th quarter in Big D.
C) Chad Ocho Cinco better hope his name change gets him drafted next year in the first 8 rounds of most leagues.
D) Michael Turner is gonna be a top 5 pick.
E) Matt Forte is gonna be a first-round pick.
F) What in the world will people do with Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson?
G) Any chance Matt Cassell will go before/in the same round as Tom Brady?
H) Who you got: Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson?
I) Will the Charger D be a force again with the return of Merriman?
J) Which rookie - come on Armin, help us out - will be a first 5-round pick?

I hope you enjoyed the ride. Enjoy the holidays!!!

Tuesday FourCast: Week 10

1) Kurt Warner for MVP
I know it was just two weeks ago I was plugging Clinton Portis for MVP (who will play against Dallas, I guarantee it); however, the NFL is fickle beyond fickle. While CP still has the award well within his sights, two names have emerged in recent weeks: Adrian Peterson and Kurt Warner. While APete's performance Sunday was magical, I'm sticking with the ressurected QB in the desert. Despite his team nearly blowing it (at home, no less) against the Niners, Warner's numbers, poise in the pocket, and leadership are exactly what the red birds need. Can you honestly predict this team would be anything better than 3-6 with Matt "Laguna Beach" Leinart at the helms? Me thinks not. If you're a stat geek, a 100+ QB rating and 19 TDs through 9 games should suffice, right?

2) Same Old Melody
Ever watched a Chargers game the past few years? More than likely, here's the script:
A) Play like *** in the 1st half.
B) Struggle to get going in the 3rd quarter.
C) LT and Gates wear on opponent - Rivers gets cheap TD tosses - and win the game late.
Yep, that's how the Chargers "do it". Problem is, they have a playoff script too:
A) Underachieve
B) Underachieve
C) Sit out injuries without trying to play
D) Miss kicks with a "Pro Bowl" kicker left and right (literally).
Must be fun to enjoy the weather out there, at least.

3) NFC (L)East
Philly fans can blame the following after last Sunday night's loss - dropping them to 0-3 in the NFC East - at home (while favored!) to the Giants:
A) McNabb's ridiculous inaccuracy
B) Andy Reid's generic-beyond-stale playcalling
C) Whatever was with Brian Westbrook
D) Assante Samuel's averageness
E) A stupid rule - but not call - with Eli Manning's "forward pass"
F) Ryan Howard
Why Ryan Howard? Because the Phillies obviously took away all the "big wins" for the season for the city. That's why.

4) For Real?
How "legit" do you consider the NFC South? Here's how I feel.
A) New Orleans is a walking dissapointment. Instead of just stinking - as in years past - they are the 'darling' of America come pre-season. In the end though, they can't win close games, Drew Brees turns the ball over a lot more than we think, and the Reggie Bush-situation hasn't ever really worked out.
B) Carolina is who we thought they were. They have a talented defense that isn't underachieving this season, Steve Smith is still one of the best (not the best) wideouts in football, and their running game is hot and cold from week to week.
C) Tampa Bay will always be under the radar; yet, I don't see them sneaking into the playoffs this year. John Gruden gets the most out of a roster at opposite ends of the spectrum age-wise.
D) Atlanta...well, they're the feel good story of the season. Props to head coach Mike Smith, rookie QB Matt Ryan, and phenomenal wideout Roddy White. I'm enjoying the ride, playoffs or not.

Tuesday FourCast: Week 8

1) No Need to Apologize
Titan fans can tell the NFL two words this week. While I won’t say em, DX made em quite popular. While Vince Young sits quietly on the sidelines, Tennessee is 7-0 and Kerry Collins is responsible for 6 of those wins. He isn’t Trent Dilfer of the 2000 Ravens. He helps win games. Disagree? Check the tape last night and be extra sure you check who his receivers are (or aren’t). Bo Scaife may make the Pro Bowl because the Titans don’t need Pro Bowl wideouts apparently. While the Titans will never get any respect, they may end up being the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays of the NFL this season. Of course when they do lose in the playoffs, every “expert” will say they saw it coming long ago. Then again, where were those “experts” who picked the Titans to be 7-0? Here's what matters:
A) They’ve beaten everyone in front of them, including AFC South stalwarts Indianapolis and Jacksonville.
B) Jeff Fisher is the best coach in the NFL. Imagine what he'd do with Peyton or Brady.
C) This is the best team in football right now. Deal with it.

2) Sometimes it isn’t the Coach
Marvin Lewis is stale in Cincy. Move on.
Mike Singletary was the right move on San Francisco. Praise on.
Rod Marinelli never had a chance in Detroit. Fire on.
Wade Phillips doesn’t do any damage being in Dallas right now. Stay on.
As for Norv Turner in San Diego. …
I use the “…” because I don’t know. It’s too easy to blame Norv for San Diego’s problems. Merriman’s injury has been catastrophic and a few other realities have come to play:
A) The Antonio Cromartie of last season wasn’t his true self.
B) Phillip Rivers and LT are great players, but they aren’t winners. Yeah, I said it.
C) Ted Cottrell is the most stagnant coordinator in football. The game has passed him by.

3) M-V-P for CP?
Each and every week we seem to have a “new” MVP to celebrate. Aaron Rogers, Trent Edwards, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, and Steve Smith (of Carolina) have all gotten some pub in recent weeks. While I believe Andre Johnson of Houston is currently playing the best of anyone in football, Clinton “insert your favorite alter-ego” Portis would get my MVP vote. His rushing numbers are amazing and his team is an impressive 6-2. Don’t give me pining for 7-1 Skins fans, take your medicine and love it. CP has been shockingly durable, a redzone magnet, and has done all of this without a rush of over 35-yards. How? Confidence in his coach, his offensive line (Samuels is FINALLY playing Pro Bowl-caliber tackle), and a QB who doesn’t throw interceptions. While the Skins still don’t have the explosive offense their fans dream of, they’re a top NFC team because of three reasons:
A) Their QB doesn’t turn over the ball often.
B) Their defense holds opponents all over the field.
C) Their RB is the NFL MVP…thus far.

4) The Not-so-Golden Boy
It doesn’t take a Jim Rome – who only blasts people he can’t get on his show – or even an angry New Yorker to tell you what Peter King, Tony Kornheiser, and Mike Jaworski won’t tell you…Brett Favre has been very average this season. Jet fans booed the future Hall of Famer last Sunday. And for good reason. Favre makes 5-6 throws each and every week that are just waiting to be a pick-six. Sure he makes 5-6 throws only a handful of QBs ever could make; yet, is it beneficial in the end? The answer is still YES. The team still believes in his talent, his vision is still unparalleled, and you can’t forget that he is a proven winner. Just ask a few of the teams mentioned above how important that characteristic is. Nevertheless, let me get three points across:
A) The Jets may be the fourth best team in the AFC East.
B) Brett Favre didn’t win the game last week. Lav Coles making that impressive TD catch combined with a missed illegal contact penalty on Drew Coleman in the closing seconds did.
C) The Jets are technically tied, at 4-3, for the final wild-card spot.
Anything else is trivial at this point.

5 NFL Questions - Week 8

1) Why isn’t the “London Game” – New Orleans vs. San Diego – getting more pub than a 1 pm slot on CBS?
2) Which of the winless – Detroit (hosting Washington) or Cincy (@Houston) – has a better chance to notch their first W of the season?
3) If Dallas ends Sunday at 4-4, will Wade Phillips have a job Monday morning?
4) Can Clinton Portis (NFL best 818 rushing yards) keep up his Herculean-workload without finally being seriously dinged up? (Jinx THAT Skins fans!)
5) Anybody too upset there’s no Sunday night game tonight (*cough*World Series)?

Our Thoughts on Last Night's Game

Armin: Was that a tribute to Joe Gibbs? It was as if they completely abandoned the West Coast Offense in the first half, and ran the Gibbs offense. Not quite the same effect as the Missing Man Formation tribute to Sean Taylor. The Redskins didn't officially start their "Jim Zorn Era" (and foray into the WCO) until the 2nd half of the game. Watching Coach Janky Spanky (a.k.a. Clinton Portis) giving a lesson in coaching to head coach Jim Zorn on the sidelines was embarrassing. The Redskins defense dropped several easy interceptions, which Redskins fans have become accustomed to outside of Sean Taylor over the last five seasons. Jason Campbell's alternate reality has him thinking he has 10+ seconds in the pocket to make his reads. However, as bad as the Redskins played, it was only a nine-point game. Should the Giants be concerned?

Sum: That was the Redskins' 6th preseason game, and it's why I thought they should've risked injury and played their starters the entire game against Jacksonville. We've known that the Skins running game would be kept the same, but that the passing game would go Zorn-style, and what we saw last night was them still working the kinks out of that merger. To disagree with Armin, I think that Zorn listens to his team leaders, like Portis, is amazing. Here, the coach allows his star athlete, who has experienced what's going on out on the field, to report back and to give his suggestions on the adjustments they can make. It's the perfect use of consultation in the middle of a game. The Giants looked great on that first drive, but that they only put up 16 points is quite pathetic. The score in this one should've been 24-7, at least. As for my assessment that the new starters on the D-Line would struggle, well, I stunk that one up real good.

Clement: Let's drop any excuses, could-haves, should-haves, or obsolete vernacular. Instead, let's remember that this is Week 1 in the NFL. The Giants are paper thin on the defense; nevertheless, Justin Tuck will be a Pro Bowler and the rookie safety Phillips showed flashes of brilliance all over the field. Eli should've had 3-4 picks; however, several of those Skins DBs were as ill-prepared for the ball to hit their hands as the Giants wideouts were. The Giants were EXTREMELY wise to pay Plax and wiser to not underutilize Jacobs (even with Ward & Bradshaw being talented). The Giants O-Line may be the most underrated unit in the NFL. The Skins looked sloppy and that had to be expected. Jason Campbell has his 7th offensive system in 8 years and DOESN'T have the moxy/poise (yet) to be an above-average NFL QB. Santana Moss/Randle-El are obsolete options and not effectively using Cooley is a MAJOR mistake (the rookie wideouts SUCK too). The Skins are not a 6-10 team; however, they may struggle mightily if they don't start getting 3-4 game-breaking runs a week from CP. The rest of their offense is nowhere talented enough (anywhere) to put up consistent scoring numbers and get this team through a downright brutal division.

Paymon: After jumping out to a quick 16-0 lead, the Giants' offense went on autopilot. Seemingly a comfortable win the Giants, Tom Coughlin has more than enough game film to rip into his team prior to their trip to the Gateway City in Week 2. Pressure was average, tackling was average, catching was average. Special teams coverage and red zone execution after the first drive ... let's not go from there. That said, DBs and O-Linemen (and the decision to run at Jason Taylor) were solid. For the Skins, they had better get their offense in order, because the Saints and Cards can put up serious points. Jason Campbell was stoic in the pocket and nearly got his receivers' head taken off. While I feel for the discontinuity he's experienced, he is a veteran and gets paid to produce.

Fantasy Football Week: Challenge #2 – Which 1st rounders were ‘steals’ and which were debacles?

Post II of III

As I mentioned in my previous post (focusing on which of THESE four teams you wanted most), this past Saturday, Armin/Sum/Pay/myself (Clement) met up at the world’s greatest unofficial draft headquarters for our yearly fantasy football draft (#1 of 2 actually) for a league we playfully have been a part of named the ‘Frank Stallone League’.

For this II post of III (I dig roman numerals) I’m going to post the 12 first-round picks (in fairness, one was auto-drafted from Yahoo’s top 500 list…can YOU guess which one it was???) from our draft.

I’ll format the rest of this post by offering up one statement that is positive, one that is negative, and the owner-factor.

Don’t fret; you’ll understand it all very shortly.
I hope.

The basics were described in my last post; however, I want to add just a few ‘reminders’ for the lazier readers who either missed the last (brilliant) posting or have short-term memory issues.

A) 12-teams.
B) 16-round ladder draft.
C) Starters include 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, & 1 DEF. 6 reserve sports.
D) Each team has two keeper allocations; 1 for rounds 4-9 and 1 for rounds 10-16. Keeper allocations CAN be traded. They DO NOT carry over to next season.
E) If you drop a player during the season, you cannot keep him next year (unless due to season-ending injury or a QB-related forced drop.)

Enough of that…let’s roll!!!

Whoops, wrong 1st-round draft.
Credit: EMQB

1^st Pick – LaDanian Tomlinson

Positive: LT is as safe a fantasy pick as there is out there. Not to mention he is resting all pre-season long and returning on a Super Bowl-contending team. He might even toss a TD or two this season for good measure.
Negative: He is closing in on 30, couldn’t play in an AFC Title game because of an injury, and doesn’t have Michael Turner behind him anymore.
Owner: Wisely, LT was the smart-money pick for this owner. Fortunately, it became easier when she realized A-Pete was already off the board (keeper allocation).

2^nd Pick – Tom Brady

Positive: Touchdown Tom was the fantasy MVP last year and remains HIGHLY valuable in a 2-starting QB league. His receiving corps remains loaded (even sans Stallworth) and there’s zero reason to doubt the reigning NFL MVP fantasy-wise.
Negative: He may or may not have foot issues, Moss has been off in recent “odd” years, and it still might’ve been too early to dismiss Manning’s fantasy-dominance over him in any other year than last.
Owner: With Laurence Maroney already in tow (keeper) for a cheap 5^th-rounder, the RB position could wait. Especially in a two-starting QB league in which owning one of the three dominant QBs is a luxury one can ill afford to pass up.

3^rd Pick – Peyton Manning

Positive: He’s the fantasy QB god of the past 5+ seasons. In fact, he’s one of the few guys who it seems almost impossible to knock drafting in any spot…fantasy-wise at least.
Negative: Romo outdid him last year, Harrison’s injury status is TBD, Peyton’s own knee isn’t 100%, and he did have several 1-TD or less games last year.
Owner: Briefly flaunting the idea of taking Romo, we all knew Peyton was a synch for the third pick. He and Wayne are as dominant as Manning and Harrison once were. In the end, there’s hardly a safer pick than the NFL’s most savvy TV personality.

You can't have one with the other...
Credit: Hogwild

4^th Pick – Tony Romo

Positive: It’s been said too many times already, but he OUTSCORED Peyton last season (I’ll say it again too!). Not to mention…he’s young, on an All-Star team, and has two targets (TO & Witten) other QBs would die for.
Negative: He’s still new at the 16-game thing, JESSICA SIMPSON, and his wideout (that’s my quarterback!) isn’t exactly the most dependable of primadonnas.
Owner: In what some claimed was a surprising move, it made complete sense given the importance of landing one of the 3 elite fantasy QBs of last year. Romo outscored Peyton last season (haha!) and has the highest of expectations in Big D to perform each and every week. Jessica Simpson is pretty hot too.

5^th Pick – Stephen Jackson

Positive: New contracts sometimes put players at ease, right?
Negative: New contracts sometimes put players at too much ease, right?
Owner: Can’t say I wasn’t just a little surprised when a noted Iggles fan traded up for the pick (right in front of me!) and then took the former holdout (okay, I wanted Westbrook). Coming off of a highly disappointing ’07 campaign, Action Jackson’s got a fatter contract and an offense that’s only get older. Nevertheless, it might be insane value at #5.

6^th Pick – Brian Westbrook

Positive: He finally became a double-digit TD guy, led the NFL in all-purpose yardage, and is the #1-weapon on an offense that can light it up (although not weekly).
Negative: His QB is never healthy, he’s a year older, he has a fatter contract too (see above), and this team needs to potentially save him for a playoff stretch drive.
Owner: It’s the consensus top-5 guy a lot of mags are calling an insane sleeper outside of the top 5 overall. In a 1-QB league (amateurs), he’s been a fixture at 2 and 3 on most boards and mocks. Given it’s pick 6, you gotta love a guy who essentially starts as an RB and WR most weeks on fantasy squads.

What I did on my summer vacation...by Marshawn Lynch.
Credit: Automobile Insurance 101

7^th Pick – Marshawn Lynch

Positive: Second-year back who the team loves to love, especially in the redzone.
Negative: Off-season stuff should be fine, yet it isn’t enthralling to read about. Traveling to Toronto for home games just seems weird to me. Not to mention that perhaps the Jets acquiring Kris Jenkins means opposing RBs will be limited to 100+ yards and 1 TD instead of the typical 150+ and 2 TDs.
Owner: Selected right before a Bill fan could’ve taken him. I love it!

8^th Pick – Frank Gore

Positive: In a word or two: Mike Martz.
Negative: In a word or two: Mike Martz.
Owner: I love the value; however, health and a certain aforementioned offensive coordinator give me the willies. Of course, the thought of a new Marshall Faulk does that too. Of course, JT O’Sullivan or Shaun Hill might have a lot to do with that (happening or not).

9^th Pick – Larry Fitzgerald

Positive: Unlike Anquan, somebody has a fat contract!
Negative: Anquan’s ordeal could be bothersome. Not to mention, the QB position is unstable at best in ‘Zona (even with solid production from Warner/Fitz last season). Health isn’t flawless for Fitz either.
Owner: It might seem a headscratcher, but value at QB had dissipated with the Big 3 gone, he has Addai in tow for a measily 3^rd rounder (keeper), and Dwayne Bowe is another insane keeper for a 10^th rounder. Nevertheless, I kinda question Fitz going in the 1^st round with guys like TO, Brees, Wayne, and even Andre Johnson around. Interesting indeed.

10^th Pick – Larry Johnson

Positive: Two seasons ago he was the most used back in the NFL and a fantasy god. That does seem sooooo long ago though.
Negative: He burned me in a league last season, never seems to catch passes, and is on a terrible team. What can I go with 60 yards a game and no TDs most weeks? What have I done???
Owner: I have stopped researching and making any sense. I knew I wanted an RB over my next top-rated QB (Brees), I’d tab TO or Wayne next round (taking TO over Reggie), and I began to wonder if I could really take Clinton Portis at #10 overall. In the end, I saw some stacked teams (already) above me and went for the highest risk/reward possible. If only Gore had slipped...

Does A-Pete lose any value with potential injury issues with Bryant "Love Boat" McKinnie?

Credit: ABC

11^th Pick – Adrian Peterson [keeper]

Positive: You could make a very sturdy argument for him being #1 overall. Slide him to #11 and you’re the happiest guy at the draft.
Negative: INJURY HISTORY. In fact, with his track record, it’d be a surprise if he played in 16 games (not counting the real playoffs, folks).
Owner: That’s why he was the ultimate 4^th round steal last season and why he’ll likely be a major steal as the 11^th overall pick this season. Damn.

12^th Pick – Clinton Portis

Positive: New offense, carefree attitude, and enhanced performance last season.
Negative: Isn’t every year in DC (5 and counting now) supposed to the major breakout statistical season?
Owner: With the next pick up-coming, it’s strong value, especially when a guy named Brees is just sitting there waiting to be gobbled up, to take a talented RB in the latest of stages in round 1.

So which two names are missing???

While I think a few might stand out – especially in a 12-team league – it has to be noted that because of the aforementioned keeper allocation rules RANDY MOSS & JOSEPH ADDAI were taken in later rounds. Another interesting caveat to consider in such an amazingly competitive league.

I’ll see you sometime this weekend with part III, focusing mainly on keeper decisions made during the draft (whether the owners knew it or not!).

Until next post…

Fantasy Analysis: Player Spotlight – Clinton Portis

As the fantasy football season rapidly approaches, more and more people have finally sucked up their pride and dished out $7-8 for a fantasy football magazine (or six!).

In most of them you’ll find the typical garbage each is trying to sell you as “insider information”.

Buyer beware!!!

If you’re lucky, you’ll find a staff of writers (of whom you think you might have heard of one or two of them before) partaking in a mock draft and mentioning a few sleepers or busts.

Savvy analysis galore!!!

While we all dole out the bones for it, where are the individual player perspectives? Forget the lunacy of projecting player statistics over a season or even declaring one back “the next big thing” and another a “complete and utter bust”. That's a crapshoot at best. AT BEST!

How many mags can I get for this puppy?
Credit: Smoking Gun

Why not instead check out PHSports for savvy analysis with a PUNCH (and maybe a humorous clip from YouTube hidden in each post)???

Glad you decided to stick around...

Today’s focus is on a man entering his fifth (yes, fifth) season with the burgundy and gold…Clinton Portis...aka Southeast Jerome, Coach Janky Spanky, Bro Sweets, Choo-Cho, Sheriff Gonnagetcha, and Dolemite Jenkins.

Crazy personas and post-game hijinx aside, let’s take a look at what you might expect from the man who offered up this gem…

In defense of Michael Vick, Portis said, "I don't know if he was fighting dogs or not, but it's his property, it's his dog," Portis told WAVY-TV. "If that's what he wants to do, do it." He then added, "I think people should mind their business." He was then asked if dog-fighting is prevalent in the NFL, and Portis answered, "I mean it's prevalent in life... I'm from Laurel, Mississippi. I know a lot of back roads that got the dog fight if you want to go see it."

Likely slotted in most draft boards in the early-to-mid second round (give or take a half-dozen picks or so), plenty of people - from Skins haters to Portis doubters - may have a hard time selecting him as their team’s #1-back.

While I have been quite skeptical in season’s past of Southeast Jerome, let me cut out the numbers (sorry Stat Boys) and give you some cold hard facts as to why you SHOULD make a run, earlier than expected, at the former Hurricane.

Anyone home to this "jingle" has loved it from Day 1.

5 Reasons to DRAFT Clinton Portis:

1) Jim Zorn’s offense should be a lot more vertical than those of year’s past in DC. If the Skins are wise, they’ll use their incredible depth at the TE position to spread the middle of the field to open more lanes around the tackles for Portis to use his speed to cruise deep downfield.

Kid Bro Sweets will likely love what Zorn's offense brings to his number of touches.

Credit: BP3

2) Despite rushing right under 4.0 yds/carry last season, Portis plunged in for 11 rushing TDs last season (despite not breaking open too many big plays). Any time you have a back who can go for multiple rushing TDs (keep in mind he also caught a career-high 47 passes), you draft him without flinching

.

Choo-Cho is targeting a dozen rush TDs...at least!
Credit: Deadspin

3) Tabbed as the 11^th overall talent on Brandon Funston’s Yahoo! Fantasy Board, Portis had an, “impressive show of production, durability, and consistency (in 2007)”. In leagues dominated by backs, he’d be a potentially sick-nasty #2 RB to pile onto an already talented #1.

Dollah Bill a first-round pick? Believe it!!!

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

4) Free Range. Portis can do no wrong in the eyes of owner Daniel “Wonder Boy” Snyder. He got his way when Coach Gibbs was calling the shots, so how do you expect Jim Zorn to tell Clinton anything he doesn’t want? Portis seems more than willing to take himself in and out of games…when healthy, at least...whenever he sees fit.

I wonder who Dolemite Jenkins is voting for in November?
Credit: Redskins.com

5) Jason Campbell has been the talk of the national press – and to a lesser extent local press – out of Skins camp. Entering his third year as a starter, Campbell’s physical attributes are simply waiting for his playmaking and decision making skills to catch up.

Coach Janky Spanky is gonna do more than take a BITE outta crime!
Credit: Redskins.com

I’m sure I could peg out more than a dozen reasons, or hilarious pictures, describing and depicting why you should wait on drafting Portis too early and hope he slips a round or two below your pre-draft expectations.

However, I’ll leave that to my loyal readers.

All 8 of them.

Until next time…and next fantasy analysis.