Telling Stat

The Baltimore Ravens were 5-0 in the regular season when Willis McGahee got 10 or more carries. After a gritty 20+ carry performance from McGahee today, the Ravens earned a playoff win in Foxboro.

It's not a coincidence. This is not to say though that he's better than Ray Rice. However, the Ravens - when they want to win - are built to play smashmouth football. That is their identity, and McGahee completes that puzzle when he gets enough carries.

NFL SWOT Analysis: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Strengths – The Ravens have an offensive line that coaches dream of. They are versatile. They are mostly young, having yet to scratch the surface of their potential. With the addition of Matt Birk, they get a savvy veteran leader who will make all the line calls. In the next 2-3 years, Jared Gaither and Michael Oher could be the top tackle tandem in the NFL (they’ll get an early start with Adam Terry going down for the year). Ben Grubbs and Marshel Yanda have been in the trenches since they were rookies. The RBs could be very strong this year, if McGahee and Rice return in full health. Le’Ron McClain moves to more of a non-traditional FB role after leading the team in rushing last season. On defense, they still have monster talent in Haloti Ngata, Trevor Pryce, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed.

Weaknesses – The CBs are in a transition. While Fabian Washington was a breath of fresh air last year, teaming him up with Dominique Foxworth doesn’t make up the most desirable CB tandem. Samari Rolle, knee deep into his decline, will be the nickel back. At TE, Todd Heap took several steps back last season, as did new arrival L.J. Smith when he was in Philly. Will the two TEs together be enough to make up for last year’s void?

Opportunities – McClain’s move to the hybrid RB/FB role could make him one of the most valuable assets on offense as both as a blocker and runner. Tavares Gooden has an opportunity to prove that he is every bit as good as Bart Scott at freeing up Ray Lewis to wreak havoc on opposing defenders.

Threats – In my opinion, Joe Flacco has a stronger chance, than most would like to admit, at having a sophomore slump. Making a trade for Brandon Marshall would make a lot of sense (except for the fact that he’s a bit of a head case). Kelly Gregg and Trevor Pryce are up there in years. While Pryce has a decent backup, Gregg does not. Haloti Ngata may be able to slide inside. This should have been addressed in the draft.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – This could be the year that Terrell Suggs finally takes over for Ray Lewis as the Defensive Stud of the team. On the offensive side, Mark Clayton should be ready to take on the #1 WR role previously held by Derrick Mason.

Position Battle – WR3: Demetrius Williams vs. Yamon Figurs vs/ Kelley Washington all have their strengths and weaknesses. One must emerge as the playmaker in 3-WR sets. Williams has the early lead, and the team would love that to be Figurs, with his blazing speed. However, a rejuvenated Kelley Washington is the dark horse.

Rookie Contributor – Michael Oher was in line for a camp battle, but with Adam Terry going down to a season-long injury, Oher has an open shot. Oniel Cousins seems too much of a project to push Oher. A vet could be signed as well. RB Cedric Peerman could get some playing time IF there are injuries at RB much like last year. He’s not a bad prospect, he just slipped a little low in the draft.



Cincinnati Bengals

Strengths – The passing offense could be the one of the few bright spots for this team. Carson Palmer feels like he did before his injury. Ocho Cinco has a lot to prove. Last year was a dismal year for him, and with Houshmandzadeh gone, Chad will have every opportunity to resurrect his stature as one of the top WRs in the league. Laveranues Coles usually does great in his first year with a new club. Chris Henry might have actually matured this time around. The defense is young with veterans where leadership where it needs it most. The defense may be forced to carry this team if the passing game falters.

Weaknesses – The top two RBs on this team are under-achievers. Cedric Benson and Brian Leonard could give this team fits at the RB position all season. But, both have potential. The offensive line looks like it will be shaky this season. The one player returning the the same position as a starter is RG Bobbie Williams. The Andrew Whitworth LT project could be disastrous. Andre Smith needs to prove that he can eventually play on the left side.

Opportunities – Keith Rivers looked like a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate before his jaw got busted. He has every opportunity to be the leader of this defense. Chris Henry seems to have learned from his past mistakes. If he can avoid distractions off the field, he has the talent to be a top-flight WR on it.

Threats – This one is very simple. As long as this front office and coaching staff is in place, the norm is that the inmates will run the asylum.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – IF Henry matures and Chad doesn’t, Henry will become Palmer’s favorite target. Forget Coles.

Position Battle – SS: Roy Williams vs. Chinedum Ndukwe. Ndukwe is more rangy and has some effectiveness in pass coverage. Roy Williams can step up and help against the run better than most safeties in the league.

Rookie Contributor – RT Andre Smith will start this season, and should eventually (over the next couple of years) slide over to LT and settle there for the long-term. TE Chase Coffman may be in line for a bunch of snaps, now that Reggie Kelly went down for the year.



Cleveland Browns

Strengths – This team is very lucky to have the offensive line that it has. They would be a much worse team without them. From Joe Thomas to Eric Steinbach to Alex Mack, this line is deep and has a nice mix of young and old players. The defensive line, led by Andre The Giant clone, Shaun Rogers is flanked by a deep set of LBs, that must come together and try to lead this defense. If Mangini can tap into some of the potential in the front seven, they could be effective.

Weaknesses – Who are they kidding with Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald as their starting CBs? Those are nickel backs on most teams. Who do they think they are? The Patriots? The RB corps is weak. Jamal Lewis is 29, old by RB standards, especially when you consider his running style. James Harrison didn’t scare any defenses when filling in. Nobody else is worth mentioning. Losing Kellen Winslow will be a pretty big blow to this team. While it’s nice not to hear his lip, the team will miss his playmaking abilities.

Opportunities – Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson still have a somewhat healthy competition. However, last year cannot happen again, with both of them underachieving. For Kamerion Wimbley, it is “Put up or Shut up” time. He’s on the verge of being a bust, however is being counted on as a defensive playmaker. Alex Hall will get opportunities on passing downs. He could be the pass rusher that Wimbley was supposed to be.

Threats – The Braylon Edwards situation could become a distraction. Edwards is the most talented skill-position player on offense. However, at this pace, he could continue his regression that started last season. Couple Edwards’s situation with the fact that Joshua Cribbs is in his own contract dispute with the team, and there is a recipe for disaster.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – If Cribbs is in camp and Edwards is not, expect Cribbs to take the offensive playmaker torch and run with it. He’s a home-run threat. Now if he can just get his contract situation figured out.

Position Battle – There are many. However, all eyes will be on the QB battle. The race is neck and neck at this point.

Rookie Contributor – Alex Mack if he can beat out Hank Fraley. If Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi end up getting a lot of work during the season, it’s possible the team isn’t doing so well.



Pittsburgh Steelers

Strengths – Where don’t the Super Bowl Champs have strengths? The offensive skill position starters (Roethlisburger, Ward, Holmes, Parker and Miller) have started together for many years and work very well together. With playmakers like James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley playing outside of James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons, the Steelers could have the best set of 3-4 LBs in the league. The DBs are an underrated crew led by a beast, Troy Polamalu. Ryan Clark is no stranger to enhancing a beast safety (Sean Taylor). He is a great complimentary player.

Weaknesses – The offensive line gave up a lot of sacks during the season. The team didn’t do a good job of addressing that in the draft and free agency. The only good thing is that the line came together and did well in the playoffs.

Opportunities – Limas Sweed gets a nice shot at taking the #3 WR spot. Sweed might have been regarded as the top WR in the 2008 draft had it not been for the wrist injury. Rashard Mendenhall is coming off a major injury last season, but will have every opportunity to beat out Mewelde Moore for the back up RB spot.

Threats – This is the default for any Defending Super Bowl Champ. Teams will bring their best against the Steelers this season. It’s rare that a defending champ does better during their title defense.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Santonio Holmes (gradually) from Hines Ward, as the #1 WR on the team. Holmes’s spectacular playmaking ability is much greater than Ward’s.

Position Battle – WR3: Limas Sweed vs. Shaun McDonald. The 3rd WR for the Steelers is always known for making big plays in clutch situations. Nate Washington was a perfect example. Sweed may be the favorite, but Shaun McDonald may be ready to do better now that he’s had a breath of fresh air outside of Detroit.

Rookie Contributor – Ziggy Hood should battle Brett Keisel for the starting DE spot opposite Aaron Smith. There are reports that Hood may already be penciled in as the starter.

5 NFL Questions - Championship Weekend

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals [3:00 pm on FOX]

Can 5th-round pick Tim Hightower be effective rushing the ball in the redzone today?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) What protection schemes will Wisenhunt and Grimm come up with to protect Kurt Warner from the machinations of Jim Johnson's exotic blitz packages?
2) What are the respective health statuses of Anquan Boldin and Brian Westbrook?
3) Is Karlos Dansby prepared to play the game of his life?
4) Which rookie will have a greater impact: DeSean Jackson or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie?
5) Will Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb finally come full circle from the "benching incident" against Baltimore?


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers [6:30 pm on CBS]

Can Big Ben expose a hole or two - if only for a second - in the Raven secondary with tight end Heath Miller in the "check-down" spot?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Will Joe Flacco be the first rookie QB to guide his team to the Super Bowl with 3 straight road victories in the playoffs?
2) Will the Steelers sweep the Ravens (and their defense) 3-0?
3) Which ballhawking safety will seal the game: Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu?
4) Is Terrell Suggs going to play or be a factor whatsoever?
5) Which team will establish their running game earliest and most often in each half?

Just in case you're bored at any time today with either game, hit up Blockbuster for this unforgettable Disney classic...



Enjoy the games...

NFL Championship Weekend Pre-Game Analysis: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Expect the defenses to get UGLY (courtesy of nytimes)

Pittsburgh Do’s and Don’t’s

Do let Willie Parker do his best Chris Johnson impersonation…except for the part where Johnson didn’t play the 2nd half. If Chris Johnson had played the 2nd half of the game, the Titans would probably have been the opponent here.

Do put 8 to 9 men in the box and stifle the Ravens run game. Jim Schartz did it last week, holding Ravens RBs to 50 yards on 30 carries. The Titans nearly shut down the Ravens offense, if not for a non-call on a big play. If McGahee and/or McClain get going, the Ravens offense will open up for business.

Do attack the banged up secondary of the Ravens. All DB starters, including S Ed Reed (knee, hamstring), S Jim Leonhard (concussion), CB Samari Rolle (groin) and CB Fabian Washington (neck) are nicked up. This is also a group that isn’t boasting much depth.

Don’t let the refs give the Ravens any cheap plays. The Flacco to Heap play on what should have been a Delay of Game penalty gave the Ravens the leg-up they needed to beat the Titans. It is hard enough to beat the Ravens. Playing against the Ravens and the Refs could make the mission impossible. Then again, do hope that the refs take your side and allow another controversial catch (ala the Santonio Holmes’s TD in Week 15).

Don’t let the Ravens’ 1-7 record at Heinz field fool you. They marched into Tennessee and walked away with a W. In a match up like this one, the Ravens may be forced to push the envelope and try to make some aggressive plays. Be patient, and wait for them to make mistakes.

Baltimore Do’s and Don’t’s

Do what is necessary to get Flacco hot early. Against a defense like the Steelers, it takes one to set up the other, either pass to set up the run or run to set up the pass. The Steelers should be hell-bent on stopping the run, so the Flacco will be key in getting the offense running on all cylinders.

Do put Ed Reed in position to get 2+ turnovers. This sounds oddly familiar. Oh yeah, I said this last week. The Ravens are undefeated when Reed gets 2 or more turnovers. Redundant? Yes. Dismissible? No.

Do take some chances. The Ravens are the underdogs, and winning the momentum game is a requirement. How do you get momentum? Big plays. Time to get Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason into their track shoes, as some long-balls should be coming.

Don’t expect the defense to do 100% of the work. The Ravens offense cannot put up another 211 yard, 9 first down, offensive performance again. It worked against the Titans, but it will not work against the Steelers. While it’s tougher against a defense like the Steelers, it is an imperative if you want to make it to Super Bowl Sunday.

Don’t let the regular season sweep by the Steelers make you think you have no chance here. Since 1970 teams who swept their division rival in the regular season have gone 11-7 against that team when they’ve met in that season’s playoffs. There is some light at the end of the tunnel for the Ravens.

Key Match ups:

When either team has the Ball
Defense vs. Defense
These are the top two defenses in the league. One of these teams will be playing for the championship against an NFC team that shouldn’t stand a chance against them. Could we see the game go into overtime, knotted up at 0-0? Improbable, yet not impossible, and awe-inspiring.

When either team has the Ball
Offensive QB vs. Defensive QB
It’ll be a match up of Flacco vs. Polamalu and Roethlisburger vs. Reed. Which QB can cut down on the mistakes, and which safety can cause the opposing offense to make mistakes?

Intangibles

Keep It Clean
With the rivalry (hatred?) between these teams, we’ve seen a lot of hard hits and cheap shots in past games. Both teams received warnings this year. The Ravens in particular are scrutinized as Terrell Suggs and Co. were called out for their bounty hunting Hines Ward and Rashard Mendelhall. It would be unfortunate for this game to be decided on stupid penalties resulting from immature behavior. No death threats from Bart Scott either.

Escaping Logic
As much as I’ve been talking up the defenses, this match up actually comes down to Cam Cameron and Bruce Arians. Which offensive coordinator comes in and calls the right play at the right time that determines this game? Can either of their offenses put up 20+ on the best defenses in the league?

Final Score Prediction
In a battle for the ages, the Steelers edge the Ravens 16-13 in Overtime.

Saturday Night Live Blog: InClement Weather's Two Snapshots & 1 Video

One of these is courtesy of yours truly. The other has to go to Yahoo! Sports. The final props goes to YouTube.

Arizona Cardinals defeat (SHOCK!!!) Carolina Panthers 33-7. Seriously. Those Arizona Cardinals. Seriously. See? See? See? See?

I could choose to do the popular thing and chew out Steve Smith. Who I despise and have always called out for being the antithesis of a team leader . Don't you dare cite that useless touchdown in the final 50 seconds either. Or better yet, Jake Delhomme. Happy 34th birthday!!! Who for some reason I love to watch F-A-I-L. He looked ready to turn the ball over ten times. Or maybe Jon Beason (who I highlighted in the 5 Questions column this morning) for being irrelevant outside of a nice INT when the team was down 20 in the 3rd quarter. Or how about Julius Peppers? Remember him? Me neither after today. I could just chew out an overrated NFC South, right? Nah.

Instead, fellow staff writer Sum inspired this...

Boy will I miss hearing about how the Cardinals are 0-5 on the East Coast. So so much.
Source: ME!

One final thought on this game. Did it look like the Cardinals missed Anquan Boldin? Not so much. Rest up 'Quan. Get healthy for the NFC Championship. The game in which the Cardinals are playing. Seriously.

Baltimore Ravens defeat (outlast) Tennessee Titans, 13-10.
I can honestly admit I didn't watch a single snap of the game. Family obligations take 1 of 4 Divisional Round Playoff games every year. However, Yahoo Sports! had this to say...

(Chris Chase) Another game, another officiating error in the NFL. On a key 3rd and 2 with 2:52 remaining in today's divisional playoff game between the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans, the play clock clearly expired well before Joe Flacco received the snap, but no delay of game call came from the officials.

See the picture yourself (below). I'm more than certain this video is coming to your next Sportscenter. And no, we're not talking about a split-second delay between 0 and snap either. Drop that excuse. Props to typical Raven offensive MVP Matt Stover though. And no, I don't think Baltimore won because of this play alone.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

My "analysis" says if you turn the ball over 3 times in the redzone, you're never likely to win. Nevertheless, this was a major miscue from the zebras.

As for the video...now THIS is a playoff h-i-t. Whomever Baltimore travels to next weekend, don't focus too much on Ed Reed (as hard as that is) or a hit like THIS (see video below) might happen to you and your fullback. Although what we really want is more of this.

One word: OUCH.




See you Sunday morning...

5 NFL Questions - Divisional Round Saturday

5 Questions for EACH game. Lucky you, right?

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans [4:30 pm, CBS]

If Albert Haynesworth is the BEAST of this defense, it only makes its leader (above) that much more lethal.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) What type of impact will the Raven wideouts (Mason & Clayton) have against the suddenly-vaunted duo of Finnegan & Harper?
2) How will the Titans handle the impact of missing All Pro C Kevin Mawae; specifically, with Ravens monster DT Haloti Ngata?
3) Which duo will see more carries today: McClain/McGahee or White/Johnson?
4) Which team will be able to convert redzone possessions into TDs rather than FG attempts?
5) Over/under for Ed Reed INTs is 2. Over/under for Ed Reed pick-sixes is 1. Your calls?

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers [8:15 pm, FOX]

If you don't know who Jon Beason is yet...be prepared to after Saturday night.
Credit: MM.news-record

1) Can Anquan Boldin again defy the doctor's expectations and be a factor - or suit up at all - Saturday night?
2) Does Arizona stand any reasonable chance of stopping the duo of DeAngelo Williams and "The Daily Show"?
3) Who's the better deepball, downfield threat in this game: Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith?
4) Will Jake Delhomme take care of the ball like a playoff quarterback must?
5) Will Julius Peppers reign havoc on a statue-esque Kurt Warner?

Enjoy the games. Feel free to comment with some of your own questions, answers to mine, or score predictions.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Baltimore at Tennessee

Tennessee Do’s and Don’t’s

Do that thing you do. Not trying to break out a lyric from a Tom Hanks movie. Just making it plain and simple. Run the ball. Ram it down their throats. The Ravens Defense is a monster, but like any defense, commitment to the run can wear them out. A heavy dose of LenDale and Johnson is the best way to get that defense on their heels.

Do free up Bulluck and Thornton so they can play all over the field. If Haynesworth is heart of the defense, Bulluck and Thornton are its soul. If the front four and Tulloch can handle their assignments, don’t be surprised if you hear Bulluck’s or Thornton’s name mentioned on a lion’s share of the plays (in a good way).

Do find a way to get Scaife involved. If the running game is churning out 3 YPC against this great Baltimore defense, Scaife needs to show his stuff on third downs as the safety-valve. Though Crumpler’s role has been as a blocking TE for most of the year, he flashed receiving skills in the past, and could offer the team another check-down option in the passing game.

Don’t let Haloti Ngata destroy your offensive line, now that there are reports of Kevin Mawae saying he can’t go. Mawae is the most important cog of that line, especially against a 3-4 defense, where he is usually asked to do more than make the initial line calls and either take on a LB or pull a double or stunt on a DT. Whichever of Leroy Harris, Jake Scott or Eugene Amano move over to center, they will have the beast, Ngata, on them most of the game, not to mention, occasionally Ray Lewis.

Don’t forget to find Justin Gage on occasion. He has four to six inches on any CB he faces on the Ravens. This mismatch should draw a safety’s attention in coverage. If Gage can draw Ed Reed, McCareins and Jones could find themselves in some decent situations in the secondary.

Baltimore Do’s and Don’t’s

Do unleash a Ravens defense, which rivals that of the Super Bowl team. They must shut down Chris Johnson and LenDale White early, forcing Kerry Collins to attempt to beat them. While Collins has a 50/50 shot at throwing 3 TDs or 3 INTs, the odds are much worse for the Ravens if Johnson and White run wild.

Do figure out who has the hot hand (or would that be “hot foot”?) early between Willis McGahee and La’Ron McClain. Will success arise from McGahee’s ability to get outside the tackles, or McClain’s bruising style up the middle? Whichever it is, a successful running game is key for either team winning this game.

Do put Ed Reed in position to get 2+ turnovers. The Ravens are undefeated in games where this ball-hawking great gets 2 or more. Success in sending Reed after Collins early will cause the Titans to change blocking schemes and take their TEs out of the passing game. Without his safety-valves, Collins will be forced to make some throws, and turnovers should ensue.

Don’t force the weight of this game onto Flacco’s shoulders. While he has had a good rookie year, the last time he faced the Titans he was picked off three times (though one was overturned). Let Flacco get his redemption by keeping his attempts around or below 25, which should also mean that other things have fallen into place for the Ravens.

Don’t let the away game have an effect on the team. This is going to be a defensive chess game that should be full of big plays (we’ll toss the offenses a couple). Just remember that the leaders of your defense already have one of those rings that you’re playing for now. There is immense value in knowing how to win when it matters. Lean on Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and let them lead the team to victory.

Key Match Ups:

When Tennessee has the Ball
LT Michael Roos vs. OLB Terrell Suggs
Will Suggs be the first NFL player this season to score a sack off Roos?

When Baltimore has the Ball
WRs Derrick Mason & Mark Clayton vs. CBs Cortland Finnegan & Nick Harper
This is one should be a great battle. Both CBs have their finesse style, but are also a lot more physical than they look. Finnegan came into his own these last two years and is playing his best football. Lately, Derrick Mason has been making the important catches that fly under the radar, gaining more of Flacco’s trust. Clayton became an occasional X-Factor receiver late in the season.

Intangibles

Head Coaching Interviews
Rex Ryan and Jim Schwartz are doing the case-study portion of their job interviews while on the sidelines. If they plan to land a head coaching job, they need to bring their best as D-Coordinators, and show that they are the right men for the available jobs. With the amount of extra effort these two should be putting into this game, I can see a defensive match up unfolding.

D-Line Health
Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch started practicing this week. They are essential for the Titans run-stopping. They can’t afford for McGahee and McClain to break off long runs, burying their team.

Final Score Prediction
Baltimore takes out the early season juggernaut in a squeaker…17-13

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Baltimore at Miami

Miami Do’s and Don’t’s:

It's not Clayton/Duper, but Bess and Ginn have as much speed as any duo in the NFL. Good thing when the Ravens secondary is in town.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do your best to stack the box on obvious running downs. Force the rookie QB – starting his first playoff game on the road, no less – to beat you downfield. It puts a TON of pressure on your relatively young secondary; nevertheless, you have to like your odds more in that scenario.

Do take advantage of a quarterback with legit playoff experience. Pennington has been the gross underdog – home or away – and guided past (Jet) teams to playoff victories against "superior teams and QBs". Don’t be so casual to forget that he’s made the big throws – for better or worse – in scenarios much rougher than at home in Miami this weekend.

Don’t allow Derrick Mason to roam free in the middle of the field. He’s the sneakiest player at that position in the NFL. Far too often he becomes discarded or totally forgotten about, especially in the slot. He’ll take a crushing hit or too as well, whether for 15 yards or 1 ½ on the reception.

Don’t allow the pick-six to burn you. It’s not impossible to plan against this. Open up the playbook – just a bit – but don’t allow their talented secondary to bite on routes. Not to mention, their LBs (as Terrell Suggs proved in Week 7) will gobble up errand balls. Anything out of the zone is property of Ed Reed. Ball security from the QB must be a QB's #1 priority when you see the Ravens on the opposing sideline.

Don’t completely abandon the benefits of the Wildcat Formation. This Ravens team is not a prolific offense (obviously). If it struggles to gain first downs early, try your best to step on their throats. Put the vice on Joe Flacco with Joey Porter barking in his ear every time he hits the corner to sack the CAA-product.


Baltimore Do’s and Don’t’s:

Averaging less than 3 catches for 25 yards a game (with only 3 TDs), the former Pro Bowler remains lost in the shuffle of an improving offense, with a rookie QB at the helm. Will that change come playoff time?

Credit: CNNSI.com

Do your best to platoon McClain and McGahee from start to finish. Why not ride both horses down the stretch, regardless of the score differential. Joe Flacco is still a rookie and there remains a significant lack of chemistry between him and his talented TE Todd Heap.

Do slip in a trick play or two for the uber-talented Mark Clayton. He’s fast and an ever-emerging athlete in the Raven offense. The Miami defenders just faced a QB (last week) with a bum shoulder who underthrew everything. Now it’s time to air out a ball or two downfield early; especially if 1-on-1 coverage is isolated on corner/stop-and-go routes.

Don’t think it's automatic that your team can win without scoring above 20 points. It’s easy to ride your defense while grinding the ball playing field position. While the Dolphin offense and special teams won’t break the bank too often; they do force turnovers. Keep that in mind when you have a rookie QB taking snaps in the 4th quarter of a game much closer than your confident defense might've expected.

Don’t expect the Dolphins to be the least bit intimidated, especially at home. This should go without saying; however, playing with house money – even at home – allows teams to act like snakes lurking in the grass. Bad symbolism, but it still rings true. The Wildcat isn't going anywhere this weekend.

Don’t forget Cam Cameron was the head coach at Miami last season, for better or worse. It’s an X-factor that might go under the rug, yet might play more of a factor than expected. Not to mention, Miami did beat a very different Baltimore (offense) last season when they were winless sans-Pennington. I’m just sayin’…

Key Matchups:

When Miami has the ball…
RB Ronnie Brown vs. LB Ray Lewis

Whether or not the Wildcat formation can work against such a disciplined defense – who has seen it before mind you – is irrelevant. Seriously. What matters is how much confidence the Dolphin coaching staff has in attempting (throughout the game) to see if Ronnie Brown is or isn’t able to take the direct snap and make a play…even if it’s a simple pitch to a dive play for Ricky. Whether it be an end-around to Ginn, a fleaflicker back to Pennington, or potentially a throw from Brown in the redzone, finding holes against this one-of-a-king speedy yet savvy defense may give the Dolphins the big play or two they need to win.

When Baltimore has the ball…
FB Le’Ron McClain vs. LB Channing Crowder

I was one of those who questioned Channing Crowder’s ability to play linebacker – especially inside the 3-4 alignment – in the NFL. While he’s far from a Pro Bowler, his athleticism and tenacity (just ask Matt Light) is ever-improving. McClain, who you’ll see just as often as the primary RB, will have a size/strength vs. speed/agility matchup most FBs either dread or salivate over.

Intangibles

Poise and Patience
You’d think the QB advantage would immediately go to Chad Pennington; yet, I’m not so sure. Flacco seems to play with a (quiet) chip on his shoulder and has arguably the more talented set of wideouts and skilled offensive players. It’ll be interesting to see how Pennington performs in the playoffs, especially in the 1st half when previous (Jet) experiences have been far more positive than his second halves. Pennington won't be nervous at all, yet arm strength may become a factor against a blitzing onslaught from the Ravens D and their coordinator Rex Ryan.

Special Teams
Matt Stover was arguably the “offensive” MVP of the 2000 Super Bowl season for the Ravens. On the other hand, Miami has an unknown kicker (Carpenter) fresh off an impressive weekend in the Meadowlands; however they also have a return unit - in all major categories - ranked in the bottom 5 in the entire NFL. Protecting your half of the field is vital to both teams, who don’t exactly gameplan on lighting the scoreboard up.

The Coaches
Just when you thought I wouldn’t mention “him”…I will. Tony Sporano (gotcha!) is a first-year coach who has seen his fair share of recent playoff disappointments in Dallas. Nevertheless, he also has to realize the tremendous opportunity he has in front of him. Good coaches don’t take these games lightly. We might call it, "playing with house money", but good coaches know it just takes one win to survive and move on. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh has two savvy coordinators in his back pocket and (defensive) players who often play like they don’t need coaching. It’s almost poetic that both these two teams – both buried in last place last season – would be so fortunate to be lifted up by two talented first-year coaches.

Final Score Prediction
Baltimore wins 27-10

Clement's Weekly Picks & Prognostications...Week 17

So it's come down to this.

For those of you not jumping off the ledge, you should be fantasy-free (no true league has anything going on in Week 17) and the official stretch-drive to the playoffs ends (or does it truly begin) this weekend.

Best of luck to all of you on the "playoff" bubble.
Except for Pats fans, of course.

Let's cut the politicking (is that a word?) and jump into the fun!!!

I'm not picking the Lions game. To be honest, even I'm not rooting for them to go 0-16.
That, my friends, is the ultimate pitty.
Credit: New York Times

NFL Picks: 41-30 [Pretty terrible at 58% success, even if they aren't the "gimmes". Terrible, indeed.]
Upset Special: 14-11 [This record was once close to 5-10, so the 3-0 weekend deserves a BOO YA.]

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+6.5)

Sadly, we won't get to see JP LOSS-man's smiling face on the bench this week.
Credit: DayLife.com

New England smells the playoffs and knows it can put a TON of pressure on the Dolphins. Interestingly, both Miami and the Jets should know the final of this game before their kickoff. How much of an impact that is scares me. Pats in a ROUT. I'm talking 30+ point-W.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1 1/2)

Is Armin's old "draft-day" man crush ready to be a Week 17 factor? Armin???
Credit: Google Images

This is a tough game as both teams took major steps backwards. Duh, Clement. Anyways, I'm less inclined to penalize Philly because they were overachieving a bit and the Redskin D has been stout all season. Dallas ran into an angry Baltimore team and it's pass rush didn't seem too affected. While McNabb will obviously be under constant pressure, I wonder if the Dallas O - especially without a 100% Marion Barber III - can click enough in hostile Philly to earn the W and thus a playoff spot. The soap opera won't end...yet. Dallas wins somehow, someway.

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texas (-3)

The only beards worse than Kyle Orton's...maybe.
Credit: MissionCalifornia.com

Houston can finish out the season in style, but they've done that before. Meanwhile, Chicago has to avoid scoreboard watching with the Vikes playing a resting-Giant squad also at 1pm. Somehow, I see Hester making a big play or two and the Bears playing inspired football. Even if it leads to no playoff reward.

Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)

We need to see more coaching - and less talking about his "master motivating" - before I get sick.
Credit: ESPN.go.com

Singletary appears ready to lock up with the Niners for a few years; meanwhile, Zorn appears to have at least one more year in San Fran. I see Portis and Campbell playing for nothing but pride (maybe contract $$$ for Campbell) and the Skins eeking out a road W.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore (-12 1/2)

Mr. Garrard. All Jet fans pray the game's lasting moments this weekend aren't like last week's.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Ravens roll, but not by 13+. The Jags will attempt to grind it out and make a statement for next year. Spoiling the Ravens' season might be the perfect offseason "bright spot" for an otherwise depressing season.

Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets (-2 1/2)

So what's the over/under on Clemens taking 1 snap?
Credit: CNNSI.com

Jets lose and the fans may cry S-U-C-K. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kellen Clemens take some snaps, even before the 4th quarter. The Jets can't pressure the QB, force turnovers, or drive downfield (outside of the first drive). Unless they have a pick-six (or two) in mind, Miami is winning the AFC East. Who'd have thunk that one?

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9)

Seriously, where has AC been this season? WHERE!?!?
Credit: Google Images

Call me crazy, but I don't see a San Diego 35-10 victory. Of course, winning by even 10 is likely. Thus this tricky spread. Nevertheless, I won't call for the Denver road upset; however, I suspect San Diego will be complacent in the 1st half and then win in the 2nd. I'd feel so much better if this spread were 10...


Best of luck to all this Sunday. Even if the "playoffs" for you will be nothing more than NFL Draft prep...

Tuesday FourCast: Week 16

In recent weeks, Sum and Armin have done laps around me with creative and catchy FourCasts. I have to admit, I've done a little too much ranting - which is always much better suited for "InClement Weather" - and haven't been able to leave the kiddie pool creativity-wise.

That needs to change...I'm just not sure if I can do it today.
I'll try a theme, but as usual it's going to be a little too self-serving, cliched, and gimmicky.
Hey, it's all I can do!!!

I know...let's butcher a classic (holiday) Christmas song!!!

1) On the 1st Day of Christmas...
You know the rest. Basically, the "mother partridge" feigns injury to decoy predators from her helpless nestlings. Sounds a lot like Bill Parcells with (last year's 1-15) Miami Dolphins to me. During the offseason he set his claws into the organization and did a few things many didn't agree with: hire Tony Sporano, trade Jason Taylor, give big money to Ernest Wilford, and bring over ex-Cowboys like Anthony Fasano/Jason Ferguson. Well, all of the above worked except choice C. Nevertheless, the team is 10-5 and in total control of its playoff destiny. Parcells also had the foresight to keep Chad Pennington in the AFC East with a very manageable 2-year contract. It's been a quiet year for Parcells in Miami only in front of the microphone. His impact has been felt like an after shock on the field.

2) On the 3rd Day of Christmas...
Three turtle doves. Home Alone 2 didn't get it right; instead, it's the three theological virtues. In reference (sorta), what three NFL stars got by on their virtues - instead of their performance - to make the Pro Bowl?
A) Brett Favre had no business being invited to Honolulu, especially after the past month. Despite his team being 6-8, Phillip Rivers leads the NFL in touchdown passes AND Matt Cassell has only struggled in Blitzburgh (who hasn't?) leading his team to 10-5 with a surprisingly deft touch and quicker feet.
B) Clinton Portis was my NFL MVP two months ago and has played as bruised and battered as any back I can remember in recent memory. Nevertheless, Brandon Jacobs - despite missing two weeks - is the heart and soul of the best team in the NFL. While I love Eli, we saw what the Giants were sans-B Jacobs the past two weeks. Insert him this past week into the starting lineup and you notice how much free space Jacobs softens up for Derrick Ward (200+ yards!) in the second half and OT. DeAngelo Williams fans (20 TDs!) might have a legitimate beef too. Portis was a little too irrelevant the past five or six weeks on a team that rode him to 6-2 and then collapsed. While you can blame most of that on Zorn & Campbell, I'll take Jacobs in the Pro Bowl over Portis. This is gonna cause some HEAT!
C) John Abraham needs to be a Pro Bowler. He's stayed healthy (somehow) and has piled up 16.5 sacks and forced 4 fumbles. He is the havoc causer on an emerging Atlanta D. While it's tough to argue with the DEs taken before him, I might cost-cut Jared Allen or even Julius Peppers in exchange for the less talent-surrounded Abraham. He's done more with much less. That means Honolulu for me in a close DE-race.

3) On the 6th Day of Christmas...
The six days of creation of the world. Got it. The first six picks of the recent NFL Draft have had relatively quiet seasons. Almost too quiet. #1 overall pick Jake Long was 50/50 with Dolphin fans on draft day, yet has been a steady contributor and should be for the next 5-6 years (or more, let's not guarantee 10 yet). 2nd overall pick Chris Long has been quieted by a 2-13 team; however, has shown promise and potential at the defensive end position (played in all 15 games, 4 sacks). 3rd pick Matt Ryan - the exception to my rule and my emerging man crush - has the Falcons - yes, the Atlanta Falcons - in the NFL playoffs and somehow eligible for the NFC South division title and maybe even a first-round bye. I don't want to hear any CRAP about the first-to-worst rule in that division either. Many thought this team would struggle for decades after the Vick-debacle (like me!). Fourth pick Darren "Run DMC" McFadden has shown two things: A) An ability to play throw pain B) The need to be in a platoon or at least 2-back system. Of course, he is a RAIDER, so his career may be over with before his rookie contract ends. Fifth pick Glenn Dorsey was considered an absolute steal 24 hours after the draft; yet - especially with the trading of Jared Allen - he is all alone on a relatively talentless KC defensive front. He has 1 sack, but it isn't fair to label him after one season. Vernon Gholston came in with HUGE question marks and has struggled mightily in the Jet 3-4 system (12 tackles and 0 sacks ALL YEAR). He is quickly being labeled a bust, yet has gotten praise from LT (the real one) and will need an offseason or two before he's out of New York and a draft-day villain.

4) On the 10th Day of Christmas...
Ten Lords-a leaping. I almost forgot it was in reference to the 10 Commandments. Sounds like a good basis for fantasy football banter.
A) If Kurt Warner got you to your fantasy championship game, he sure didn't win it for you.
B) If you had a non-Ray Rice Raven RB starting, you sure loved that 4th quarter in Big D.
C) Chad Ocho Cinco better hope his name change gets him drafted next year in the first 8 rounds of most leagues.
D) Michael Turner is gonna be a top 5 pick.
E) Matt Forte is gonna be a first-round pick.
F) What in the world will people do with Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson?
G) Any chance Matt Cassell will go before/in the same round as Tom Brady?
H) Who you got: Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson?
I) Will the Charger D be a force again with the return of Merriman?
J) Which rookie - come on Armin, help us out - will be a first 5-round pick?

I hope you enjoyed the ride. Enjoy the holidays!!!

Clement’s Weekly Picks & Prognostications…Week 16

First off, it's time for the 'excuse' as to why I didn't post on Friday.
Well, a partial dislocation of my left elbow did the trick!

Two words: not fun.
Credit: LSBU.uk

Two more weeks to go and the NFL season is officially white hot.

Wouldn't you know it, but both the AFC and NFC have every seed up for grabs.
(Note: The exception to the rule came true Thursday night as Indy clinched the #5-seed after defeating the Jags 31-24.)

True, several teams have clinched either a division (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Arizona), a bye (Tenn & Pitt), and others just a playoff spot…wait, none of the “wild-card” are locked up yet (again, except Indy).

Interestingly enough, Carolina can win next week and clinch the #1-seed in the NFC OR lose out and potentially miss the playoffs altogether. Best-case to worst-case, to say the least.

6-8 San Diego is alive; meanwhile, it’s possible an 11-5 Patriot team could miss the playoffs (not likely though). Even crazier is that two 10-6 teams (as opposed to just Cleveland last season) AFC teams and several NFC will likely miss the playoffs.

Imagine if the Falcons and Phins end up 10-6 and both are out of the playoff picture.
The Jets could go from 8-3 and Super Bowl contenders to 9-7 and 2 games out of the playoffs.
Skin fans have sentiments far drearier as their playoff path seems invisible, despite a 6-2 start.

You gotta love this time of year, right? NO.
It’s far too much stress I tell you. Too much!
Fortunately, you have me to kick around…as my picks have suddenly become sublimely average.

NFL Picks: 41-26 [Taking credit for the Bears W over the ‘Aints. Pay can back me up. I swear!]
Upset Specials: 11-10 [If I can get this thing to something like 16-12, it’s a respectable season.]

I’m taking each and every game that MATTERS. HONEST!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans (+1)
Chucking the Titans to the side of the road is a mistake. An even bigger mistake is noticing how the Steelers do nothing but dominate fourth quarters. With Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth already ruled out, I don’t like Titans chances for brusing up Big Ben and an underachieving Steeler rush game. Tight ends will play major factors in this game and I’ll take the veteran Pro Bowler Troy Polamalu over the emerging talent Michael Griffin at the other key position, safety. That means I’m going Steelers for the cover.

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4)
Don’t sleep on the Phins facing a challenge this week. They play teams close and aren’t likely to blow anyone out. Problem for KC this week (and every week) is turnovers, the pistol formation stifling LJ in the redzone, and the overall lack of playmaking talent on the defensive side of the ball. Pennington won’t have that crippling 3-turnover game that allows 2-12 teams to pull upsets. Phins cruise, which means a win by 7-10. Joey Porter may have 20 sacks on the year after this game for his season tally. 2 extra INTs too.

San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Not the best time for Tampa to struggle with stopping the run. Then again, LT is a shred of his former self this season. Remember the Bucs are 6-0 at home and they realize their playoff lives are on the line. A division title still remains a possibility; enhanced even more with Jeff Garcia likely back under center. While the Chargers can really put a TON of pressure on Denver (who has no gimme itself this weekend), I like the Bucs to move to 10-5 and end the Charger season across the country.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (No Line)
Not sure what’s going on with the psyche of either team right now; however, I’m taking the Broncos to win a close one. In all honesty, I flipped a coin.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The game is in Minnesota, so I’m taking the Vikings. You need more? A-Pete versus The Burner should be amazing. The real storyline may be Ryan & Jackson though. While I’m not sold on Tavaris, I am also not sold on the Atlanta D on the road. Vikes win, with probably a push on this 3. I'm pulling for the upset though.

Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants (-3)
Another game that screams for a push. The G-Men must improve the juice in their pass rush - despite their lack of depth this time of the season - and force Jake Delhomme to rush throws into a crowded secondary. While I don’t want to go 0-3 in consecutive weeks with the G-Men, I also don’t know if the Panthers will run all that well against the Giants. I’ll take New York’s finest football team. If DeAngelo Williams was a Pro Bowl snub, we'll know after this weekend.

[Picking Against My Own Team] Upset Special #1:

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks (+5)
I pissed and moaned last week and the Jets did almost everything they could to lose at home - after leading 14-3 (with the ball at midfield early in the 2^nd quarter) – to the lowly Bills. Nevertheless, a win is a win. Or is it? While some Jets are talking about the lack of need for style points…I’m questioning offensive playcalling, a bland defensive scheme, zero intricacy with blitz packages, and a lack of reliance on the rush offense with the lead. Seriously, only 1 carry for Leon Washington? I’m calling for the outright upset here by the Hawks. Why? I know the Jets all too well. 8-3 was maybe the worst thing that happened to this team and coaching staff.

[Monday Night] Upset Special #2:

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-4 ½)
Spoiler alert! Not sure why, but it will be!

[Quasi-]Upset Special #3:

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (-4 ½)
Obviously, this is a VERY different game if it’s being played in Baltimore than in Texas Stadium; especially weather-wise. The health of Tony Romo may quickly come into question - especially considering the ferocity of hits the Ravens lay on opposing QBs - as without Romo the Boys are DOA. Ditto for the patience of Cam Cameron in Joe Flacco if DeMarcus Ware can get around the corner and pressure the rookie QB. If Flacco can't make big throws downfield, the Ravens won't dink and dunk their way to a road W. Two other factors really stick out: the Ravens unbalanced line and the lack of a Raven running game. One needs to help the other as the new line-formation won't do enough if it's only intention is to contain Ware on the edge. My pick is the Cowboys; however, I’m sticking with the Ravens to keep it close. Very close.

Ten Fantasy Insights/Questions on Championship Weekend:
1) If you don't have your championship in Week 16…your league stinks.
2) If you are pairing up a regular season title with a potential playoffs title, that’s awesome.
3) If you are pairing up a regular season tite, point’s lead, and a playoff title…you are awesome.
4) If you are the 8-seed playing for the playoff championship, I have two words for you: silver lining.
5) If your NFL team is out of it, I hope your fantasy team isn’t.
6) Whose your fantasy MVP: Kurt Warner, Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson, or maybe even Tony Gonzalez?
7) Whose your fantasy LAMO over the year: Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, or maybe even LT as your #1 overall pick?
8) Which rookie QB did you ride to a greater fantasy surprise: Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco?
9) Who's the #1 pick next year: Adrian Peterson or the field?
10) Is Matt Cassell a top 7-8 QB – wherever he is – next season (fantasy football-wise).

See you next week…to close out the regular season (gulp).

Tuesday FourCast: Week 15

The playoffs are approaching, and Week 15 kicked off what I consider the most important three weeks of the regular season. Just like any season, there are plenty of teams on the bubble going in, and Week 15 is when you start seeing the pain kick in, as teams on the cusp of the post season have their hopes crushed. Hope the Trekkies can enjoy this one.


1. Improbable AND Impossible...take that Dr. Spock!!!

This week, we saw the two best teams in the league duke it out. It's too bad the Super Bowl can't always consist of the two best teams. In my opinion the Giants and Cowboys are the best teams in the league. On one hand, you have the Giants who should be reeling from the loss of Plaxico Burress, but seem to be moving on without him. On the other hand, you have the Cowboys who were knee deep in drama with a divided locker room, and an owner questioning the Marion Barber's toughness. What makes the teams great is their defenses that, despite the final score on Sunday night, are for the most part hitting on all cylinders. The Cowboys were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl and I'm sure I wasn't alone in that thought at that time. However, I may stand with less when I say that they are still my favorite to win it all. Hopefully they don’t make me look silly by missing the playoffs.


2. Dammit Jim, I'm a doctor, not a referee!!!

Ravens fans are not going to let this one go, but I will go on the record and say that was a touchdown. I understand the call could go either way, and I have many that will disagree with me. I saw the ball breaking the plane. I watched the replay several times, and I saw a TD. The point in question here is, can that play have been used as irrefutable evidence to change the call either way. Too close to call. I wouldn't be surprised if someone said the refs decided on a coin flip. Either way, it would be nice to see both of these teams meet in the playoffs and have the game decided in a less controversial way.


3. 19 Down, only 4 more to Chekov

The Ware Watch is in full effect. Two games left. Can DeMarcus Ware get 4 more sacks? Never thought I would cheer for a Cowboy to break an NFL record, but Strahan's faux sack record needs to fall. I never looked at Brett Favre the same after his prima-donna-ish move to be purposely sacked by Strahan which broke the previous NFL record. Ware leads a defense that is now healthy, at full strength and off any suspensions. While the Steelers defense is the favorite is ranked as the best defense in the NFL (and considered one of the best all-time), I think the Cowboys make a strong case to be 2nd at this point in the season.


4. You can beam me up now, Tony

I hope Tony Siragusa will always have a commentator/analyst job. His comment, comparing his vertical to that of Santana Moss had me nearly rolling on the floor. Goose is a funny guy, and his humorous blurbs are much welcome. On the flip-side, you get Tony Kornheiser. Get this guy out of there. He’s worse than Dennis Leary. If the NFL and their partnering networks want to reach the fan-base that’s going to keep their league atop all sports in the U.S., they can’t have old Korny making comments about the random things he talks about. Let’s keep Korny on PTI (where I can avoid him), and lets see if we can move Goose into the booth on Monday nights. I guarantee that he would be exponentially more entertaining than Korny. A Tony for a Tony.

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 11

...sans intro...

NFL Picks: 28-16 [Of all the games to get wrong, I'm happiest it was a 47-3 victory for the Jets.]
Upset Specials: 7-7 [It's the return of the...oh wait...no way...he didn't just say, what I think he did, did he?]

While you won't find any New England/NY Jets talk...I will mention one key name you'd never expect. Jet LB David Bowens has mighty shoes to fill behind Kris Jenkins with David Harris still injured and out of the lineup. This is an unknown X-factor to the "press".

Credit: Flckr.com

Arizona @ Seattle (+3)
If Arizona had lost Monday night, this game would've taken on a whole new level of interest. Instead, greedy fantasy owners feast off of the Cardinals while Matt Hasselbeck returns as the starting QB...but for how long? Cards win, by much more than 3 in not-so-tough Seattle.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3)
Jacksonville is 4-5 and definitely can't afford 6 losses after 10 decisions. Meanwhile, Tennessee aired it out last week and won in Chicago. With another tough road test, I have to wonder if 10-0 is in their future? Yes. Why? Titans can stop the run. Jags can't win without it.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-4 1/2)
Rivers' stats are overinflated this season. This game is in Pittsburgh and the Stillers aren't losing back-to-back there. Their O-Line better beat up on a banged up Charger D. The real key in Pittsburgh is the health of "Fast Willie" and whether or not Santonio Holmes can be at least mildly productive this weekend. The Steelers - as well as a few fantasy owners - need that desperately.

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-3 1/2)
The 1/2 scares me; however, this game means way too much in both the NFC South, NFC North, and NFC Wild-Card. While APete is my #2 in the MVP-race (behind Warner), the Bucs D is rested and their offense should have a healthy Joey Galloway, Warrick Dunn, and even word of Cadillac Williams getting carries. I'm taking the home team to frustrated Frerotte into a pick-six (or two) and a vastly important home victory...somehow.

Upset Special #1
Dallas @ Washington (+2)
Most books won't take bets because of injury concerns to Romo (returning) and Portis (50/50) so early in the week. Not me. The Cowboys have too many new faces returning (Romo, Newman, & Jones) for me to pick them on the road. However, a win equals 6-4 and makes the NFC more wide open than ever. Interesting, if nothing else.

Upset Special #2
Denver @ Atlanta (-6)
Who would've ever imagined this number in Week 10 at the beginning of the season? NOBODY. While Jay Cutler may break down carrying this team, I don't want to give the Falcons too easy a road to 7-3. I imagine this being a FG type game. Extra interesting with new-kid Prater battling Bronco-vet Jason Elam. While I like the Falcons, I don't by 6.

Top Ten Fantasy Insights of the Week...You Didn't Expect
1) Depending on wideouts - even your Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall types - isn't safe come fantasy playoff stretch run.
2) Larry Johnson...avoid starting him this or any week.
3) Thomas Jones isn't going to have another 40-point week, but he's a weekly start now.
4) There's still enough upside to start guys like Steve Breaston.
5) Tony Gonzalez may quietly be this season's highest scoring tight end.
6) Defenses can win fantasy championships. Seriously.
7) Marvin Harrison just might be done.

Oh yeah, three NFL Thoughts to finish out the top 10.

8) Atlanta is going to make the playoffs.
9) So is Baltimore.
10) One of the above teams won't...obviously.

Until next time!

Drafting For Need Is Not Overrated - Just Ask The Steelers Now

Last night, the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Baltimore Ravens. However, the win came with potentially greater losses. First, they lost 1st-round pick Rashard Mendenhall (shoulder fracture), whose name I often altered due to his tendency to put the ball on the ground. Second, starting right guard Kendall Simmons suffered a right Achilles injury. Both players are done for the season and will be placed on injured reserve. In the meanwhile, either Darnell Stapleton or Trai Essex will start in Simmons's place. As for running backs, Mewelde Moore is the only healthy one on the roster, so do not be shocked if the likes of Shaun Alexander, Cedric Benson, Najeh Davenport, Barry Foster, Franco Harris or Rocky Bleier get a call.

After the end of last season, one thing was clear for Pittsburgh. They needed to strengthen the offensive line. In short, that did not happen. Alan Faneca did not re-sign and the Steelers gave a backup tackle (Max Starks) Lee Majors type money. At the NFL Draft, all signs pointed to beefing up the O-Line; however, the first two picks were spent on ultra-talented skill position players who slipped in the eyes of many. In the third round, the Steelers selected speed rusher Bruce Davis with the intention of moving 2007 first-round pick and Ricky Williams shoulder crusher Lawrence Timmons to the inside. Offensive tackle Tony Hills was selected in the 4th round, but was that enough? No.

If the Steelers cannot run the ball with authority, then the team loses the identity that the city of Pittsburgh has come to know and love. Furthermore, the team becomes one-dimensional and predictable, resulting in their big investment, Big Ben, to be on his back on Sundays and in the trainer's room on Monday through Saturday. With a physical defense like the Jacksonville Jaguars (Pittsburgh's Week 5 opponent) anxiously waiting in the wings, I am curious to see how the Steelers will alter their passing game to avoid situations early in the game in which Big Ben is in the pocket for long periods of time. Earlier in Big Ben's career when he was less established, the Steelers used more wide receiver screens to get the ball out of his hands and let teammates makes plays. Perhaps, this will be a strategy employed to reduce the predictability of a team led by a dropback passer who lacks the privilege of a firm run game. No matter what strategy they use in the coming weeks to win games, the Steelers will need to rely on defense and special teams.