Your Job's Your Credit!!! Week 4 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

Much like the opening two titles to this weekly column (Lightning in a Bottle, I’d Like To Touch Jennifer’s Body, Falling, Falling, Falling) and we’re sticking with the nonsensical title route. In fact, it's not going ANYWHERE anytime soon.



Time for the 10 Questions of the Week...

Is Cedric Benson truly a must-start in fantasy these days. Absolutely!!!
Credit: Suntimes.com

1) Which fantasy star will be missed most on Sunday rosters: Michael Turner or Larry Fitzgerald?
2) Can the Jets survive their trip to the Superdome down two corners (Sheppard and Strickland)?
3) Will Rashard Mendenhall take advantage of his opportunity this weekend in a primetime game?
4) Is LT going to be an injury nightmare each and every weekend?
5) Are Virginia Tech players naturally undisciplined in the NFL? Seriously, check out the names and consider it.
6) Which Redskin back should've been traded MOST a few years back: Portis or Betts?
7) Might the Lions have a different type of streak (winning?) in mind after this weekend?
8) Who's your post-4 Weeks MVP gonna be? Does his name rhyme with Shmoo Schmees?
9) Which Saints wideout will see the most of Darrelle Revis?
10) How many INTs do you have for Derek Anderson this Sunday?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 5-2 (Carolina played closer than 14 points - a late pick-6 doomed me - and Miami suffered from a Pennington injury on their trip out West. The game was brutal beforehand, although much closer. Still a solid week.)
Season Total: 12-6 (I'm picking tougher games, with fewer cupcakes than most. I'm gonna set a target of 20-10. It's gonna take a rock solid Week 3 to do so.)
Upset Special: 3-1 (The Phins had won 7 in a row in San Diego and were giving 5.5 points. I bit off more than I could've chewed. Colts big @Zona was an easy call, but far too many people made it.)
Survivor Selection: 3-0 (Picking the Ravens to annihilate the Browns wasn't exactly rocket science.)

Let's make these short and sweet...

Guess who is your NFL touchdown leader after Week 3. Yeah, Mr. McGahee.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Jack Del Rio sucks and the Jags have the worst "homefield advantage" in the NFL. Look for the Titan D to wake up and stack the box against MJD. Titans roll.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-1 1/2)
The game is in Foxboro. I want to see Joe Flacco drive his team down the field when they're trailing in a key game. Oh wait, he did that in the Divisional Round last year. Too bad Brady has done it a lot more. Pats win, barely.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (-3)
Denver could win this game and become a quasi-legit 4-0 game. Tashard Choice is the best RB in Dallas. Because he gets carries on Sunday afternoon, Dallas wins a close one.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10)
Same old Lions. Bears roll as Forte FINALLY gets on track. Although memo to fantasy owners, his rookie season may be his statistically best. Exactly how many Bear RBs have staying power in Chicago since Sweetness. Zippie.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-7 1/2)
They're teasing you to take the Bucs. Don't. Who the hell is Josh Johnson anyways? At least we don't have to hear teases about a 3-1 Skins team (which would be a complete fraud).

Upset Special #1
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7 1/2)
Not sure about LT, Polamalu, or why this spread is so big. What I do know is Phillip Rivers isn't intimidated by anyone. I like the Stillers, but not at this number to cover.

Upset Special #2
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)
A-Rod typically doesn't win games like this, on the home or on the road. Ironically, it could be Ryan Longwell who walks away with the game-winning points (another former Packer). Notice who's name I'm not mentioning? This number won't be covered, one way or another.

…Survivor Selection… [Gone: New England, Minnesota, and Baltimore]
NY Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
You can't pick on the Browns and Rams every week. Plus, both have divisional matchups. Give me the Giants, who reved up Jacobs quite a bit last week. Things are gonna continue to stink for Todd Haley and company.

Fantasy Studs and Duds
[Note: Scoring this week was a tricky as it has been in recent memory. Let me explain.]

...Last Week...[4-3-1, 15-11-1 on the year. Iffy iffy]

Boo Ya: Santana Moss was LARGE, Brett Favre was retro-Favrian in a GOOD way, while Watson and Maroney STUNK up the joint.

What the ???: Matt Cassell completed only 9 passes, but two were for TDs. Len Dale White barely got any touches, but in TD-heavy leagues...he did score one.

Meh: Manningham had less than 60 yards, Shockey didn't eclipse 75 but was over 50 as a tight end, and Berrian caught a season-high but was nowhere near 100 yards or a touchdown. White didn't have 10 touches not 30 yards though, so his TD was neutralized in points per touch leagues quite a bit. Tricky tricky to interpret. Gonna call it 1-1-1.

...as for this week...

A big "holla" to all Santana Moss owners this weekend. Expect a back-to-back BLOWUP!!!
Credit: SocialButt-r-fly.com

STUDS
1) Earl Bennett will catch one of Jay Cutler's 3 TDs this weekend. A Chicago Bear QB is gonna toss 30+ TDs this season. His name is Jay Cutler.
2) Heath Miller will choose this weekend to catch one of his 3 TDs on the season. If you're in a pinch, waiver-wire the Steeler tight end.
3) Eddie Royal is breaking out of his funk this week with 75+-yards and a TD. Bank on it.
4) The Titans D is out there in a ton of leagues. The Jags will make them look good, with at least 1 pick-6 this weekend.

DUDS
1) Don't expect much from Cadillac Williams or Derrick Ward this weekend. Not much at all.
2) Lee Evans is going to end up being the biggest loser in the soon-to-be TO melodrama in Buffalo.
3) Glen Coffee isn't going to be the fantasy-beast you expect this weekend.
4) Zach Miller isn't the only Oakland starter you should have in your fantasy lineup. No Raider should earn that honor.

Parting Thought of the Week

Credit: CNNSI.com

A two time winner of the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award, Chad Pennington's career should be appreciated...even if it may be over. The guy has been discarded a few too many times (especially by the team I love) and he's responded with class, dignity, and more than a few wins. A few of my fondest memories...
A) Leading the Jets to a 41-0 dismantling of Peyton Manning and the Colts on Wild Card Weekend.
B) Following a preseason injury, he cheered on his team and worked the playcalling on the sideline (unlike Michael Vick, who was wheeled around in a wheelchair by his team owner).
C) Flexing his gun, with a torn rotater cuff, after a deep TD pass during a road win against San Diego on Wild Card weekend.

Chad...hope to see you back under center next year.

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Baltimore at Miami

Miami Do’s and Don’t’s:

It's not Clayton/Duper, but Bess and Ginn have as much speed as any duo in the NFL. Good thing when the Ravens secondary is in town.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do your best to stack the box on obvious running downs. Force the rookie QB – starting his first playoff game on the road, no less – to beat you downfield. It puts a TON of pressure on your relatively young secondary; nevertheless, you have to like your odds more in that scenario.

Do take advantage of a quarterback with legit playoff experience. Pennington has been the gross underdog – home or away – and guided past (Jet) teams to playoff victories against "superior teams and QBs". Don’t be so casual to forget that he’s made the big throws – for better or worse – in scenarios much rougher than at home in Miami this weekend.

Don’t allow Derrick Mason to roam free in the middle of the field. He’s the sneakiest player at that position in the NFL. Far too often he becomes discarded or totally forgotten about, especially in the slot. He’ll take a crushing hit or too as well, whether for 15 yards or 1 ½ on the reception.

Don’t allow the pick-six to burn you. It’s not impossible to plan against this. Open up the playbook – just a bit – but don’t allow their talented secondary to bite on routes. Not to mention, their LBs (as Terrell Suggs proved in Week 7) will gobble up errand balls. Anything out of the zone is property of Ed Reed. Ball security from the QB must be a QB's #1 priority when you see the Ravens on the opposing sideline.

Don’t completely abandon the benefits of the Wildcat Formation. This Ravens team is not a prolific offense (obviously). If it struggles to gain first downs early, try your best to step on their throats. Put the vice on Joe Flacco with Joey Porter barking in his ear every time he hits the corner to sack the CAA-product.


Baltimore Do’s and Don’t’s:

Averaging less than 3 catches for 25 yards a game (with only 3 TDs), the former Pro Bowler remains lost in the shuffle of an improving offense, with a rookie QB at the helm. Will that change come playoff time?

Credit: CNNSI.com

Do your best to platoon McClain and McGahee from start to finish. Why not ride both horses down the stretch, regardless of the score differential. Joe Flacco is still a rookie and there remains a significant lack of chemistry between him and his talented TE Todd Heap.

Do slip in a trick play or two for the uber-talented Mark Clayton. He’s fast and an ever-emerging athlete in the Raven offense. The Miami defenders just faced a QB (last week) with a bum shoulder who underthrew everything. Now it’s time to air out a ball or two downfield early; especially if 1-on-1 coverage is isolated on corner/stop-and-go routes.

Don’t think it's automatic that your team can win without scoring above 20 points. It’s easy to ride your defense while grinding the ball playing field position. While the Dolphin offense and special teams won’t break the bank too often; they do force turnovers. Keep that in mind when you have a rookie QB taking snaps in the 4th quarter of a game much closer than your confident defense might've expected.

Don’t expect the Dolphins to be the least bit intimidated, especially at home. This should go without saying; however, playing with house money – even at home – allows teams to act like snakes lurking in the grass. Bad symbolism, but it still rings true. The Wildcat isn't going anywhere this weekend.

Don’t forget Cam Cameron was the head coach at Miami last season, for better or worse. It’s an X-factor that might go under the rug, yet might play more of a factor than expected. Not to mention, Miami did beat a very different Baltimore (offense) last season when they were winless sans-Pennington. I’m just sayin’…

Key Matchups:

When Miami has the ball…
RB Ronnie Brown vs. LB Ray Lewis

Whether or not the Wildcat formation can work against such a disciplined defense – who has seen it before mind you – is irrelevant. Seriously. What matters is how much confidence the Dolphin coaching staff has in attempting (throughout the game) to see if Ronnie Brown is or isn’t able to take the direct snap and make a play…even if it’s a simple pitch to a dive play for Ricky. Whether it be an end-around to Ginn, a fleaflicker back to Pennington, or potentially a throw from Brown in the redzone, finding holes against this one-of-a-king speedy yet savvy defense may give the Dolphins the big play or two they need to win.

When Baltimore has the ball…
FB Le’Ron McClain vs. LB Channing Crowder

I was one of those who questioned Channing Crowder’s ability to play linebacker – especially inside the 3-4 alignment – in the NFL. While he’s far from a Pro Bowler, his athleticism and tenacity (just ask Matt Light) is ever-improving. McClain, who you’ll see just as often as the primary RB, will have a size/strength vs. speed/agility matchup most FBs either dread or salivate over.

Intangibles

Poise and Patience
You’d think the QB advantage would immediately go to Chad Pennington; yet, I’m not so sure. Flacco seems to play with a (quiet) chip on his shoulder and has arguably the more talented set of wideouts and skilled offensive players. It’ll be interesting to see how Pennington performs in the playoffs, especially in the 1st half when previous (Jet) experiences have been far more positive than his second halves. Pennington won't be nervous at all, yet arm strength may become a factor against a blitzing onslaught from the Ravens D and their coordinator Rex Ryan.

Special Teams
Matt Stover was arguably the “offensive” MVP of the 2000 Super Bowl season for the Ravens. On the other hand, Miami has an unknown kicker (Carpenter) fresh off an impressive weekend in the Meadowlands; however they also have a return unit - in all major categories - ranked in the bottom 5 in the entire NFL. Protecting your half of the field is vital to both teams, who don’t exactly gameplan on lighting the scoreboard up.

The Coaches
Just when you thought I wouldn’t mention “him”…I will. Tony Sporano (gotcha!) is a first-year coach who has seen his fair share of recent playoff disappointments in Dallas. Nevertheless, he also has to realize the tremendous opportunity he has in front of him. Good coaches don’t take these games lightly. We might call it, "playing with house money", but good coaches know it just takes one win to survive and move on. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh has two savvy coordinators in his back pocket and (defensive) players who often play like they don’t need coaching. It’s almost poetic that both these two teams – both buried in last place last season – would be so fortunate to be lifted up by two talented first-year coaches.

Final Score Prediction
Baltimore wins 27-10