Saturday, September 19, 2009

I'd Like to Touch Jennifer's Body: Week 2 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

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Check out running commentary tomorrow TOO for plenty o' NFL commentary and analysis!

Much like last week (Lightning in a Bottle), there's no need to explain this week's title.

Or is there!?!?!

Megan Fox's latest movie could be about just about anything...and I'll be checking it out.

Before I begin dissecting the weekend that was - and of course, the weekend that will be - it's only fair to keep with last week's momentum and throw out 10 Questions I have for the upcoming weekend slate of NFL-action.

Now for the questions...

Whoops, wrong LT. Wait, what is HE doing!?!?!

1) Did I ruin LT's season by drafting him in BOTH of my fantasy football leagues?
2) How many fantasy football nuts will overrate last week's performance by Julius Jones?
3) Could the Rams legitimately challenge the Lions of last season for overall suckiness?
4) Which bet are you more likely to take this weekend: Cutler throws for 4 TDs and 1 INT or Cutler throws for 1 TD and 4 INTs?
5) Is Louis Murphy the most talented receiver in Oakland? Is that saying much?
6) After how many pass attempts will Iggle fans be chanting for Jeff Garcia to replace Kevin Kolb?
7) Has Jeremy Shockey found an identity in the Saints offense?
8) Is Mark Sanchez anywhere near prepared enough to deal with Belichick's scheming?
9) Will the banged up Giants' secondary be able to clamp down on Romo and the sans-TO Cowboy passing attack?
10) How tight might the leash get for Jason Campbell if he struggles against the Rams "D"?

Last Week: 2-3 (Not my finest work, although it shouldn't be a surprise considering I targeting such big numbers and my favorite...road dogs.)
Upset Special: 0-0 (Didn't find one I liked last week. I will this week...)
Survivor Selection: 1-0 (I had New England over Buffalo and WISHED UPON WISHES I was wrong. I hope Leodis McKelvin never finds true love. Bastard.)

9 INTs in his last two games. Over/under for this weekend is 2. You can't push. What do you do???

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6)
I'm picking the Falcons to win the game, as homefield in the NFC is HUGE. Nevertheless, I'm taking John Fox and the Panthers to bust this large number. Despite how putrid Jake Delhomme as last week, the duo of Williams/Stewart will see far more carries. That Steve Smith guy is pretty good too. This should be an entertaining game, with Jason Elam clinching it in the final minutes.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-3)
This screams for a push, which makes me happy it's not a 3 1/2-point line. The Broncos may start 3-0, due to an incredibly crappy schedule. Neither team was impressive last week; however, I feel like Mangini already has built a sinking ship in Cleveland. It's not sour grapes, because Denver stinks too.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (+3)
It'd be a mistake to completely write off the Bears at this point. Despite a putrid performance from Cutler, shabby wideout route running, and plenty of missed opportunities, the Bears nearly won a road opener at Green Bay. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh - as championship teams do - squeaked past Tennessee (in the weekend's only OT game), largely without Troy Polamalu. Look for the Bears to target Greg Olsen in the redzone far more and keep it very very close, yet it won't be enough as the Steelers push Bear fans closer to the ledge...and 0-2.

Upset Special #1

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
I know the Cardinals have a LOT of issues. More than Star Jones. Okay, maybe not that many. Nevertheless, I don't buy Jacksonville. I don't buy Jack Del Rio. Look for the Cardinals - not the savviest of road teams - to keep a back in the backfield to protect Turner and to spread the ball around. The game will be close, in large part due to MJD; however, last season's Super Bowl runner-up will not start 0-2.

Upset Special #2
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
I love how the Cowboy-hating media (i.e. Skip Bayless & Bob Ryan) are rooting for the scoreboard to get hit three-dozen times, rather than analyzing this stellar Sunday Night Football matchup (take that MNF!!!). As for the game, if Tampa had a credible QB...they might've beaten the Cowboys last week. Despite the home crowd and ridiculously ridiculous stadium, I'm taking the road Giants to squeak by in a potential shootout. Brandon Jacobs will feat on the Dallas D this weekend.

...Survivor Selection... [Gone: New England]
I won't take the Redskins at home against the lowly Rams for a variety of reasons. Mainly because I don't see them as a dominant team and I will always take one in my survivor selection. Instead, I'm going to target to take AD (aka Adrian Peterson) and the Minnesota Vikings- even with that Favre guy - against the Lions. While I don't typically like going for a road team, I also don't mind picking against a team who's lost 18 straight games.

Fantasy Studs and Duds:

...Last Week...
[6 out of 11 CORRECT)
Right = Dustin Keller (stud), NY Jets D (stud), Justin Gage (stud), Nate Washington (dud), LenDale White (dud), Joey Galloway (dud)
Wrong = Bernard Berrian (stud), Reggie Bush (stud), Mike Bell (dud...whoops), Patrick Crayton (dud), Heath Miller (dud)

...This Week...

Both Jet RBs are worth a start this weekend.

1) Leon Washington played well in Foxboro last season and could see 20+ touches this weekend, despite the score. Start him in a flex position with a smile on your face.
2) Greg Olsen was whisper quiet last weekend. So what? It won't be that way this weekend. Mark him down for 70+-yards and a TD.
3) Donald Driver is a nice #2 wideout this week for those lacking wideout depth. Rasheen Mathis will follow Greg Jennings around the field, opening things up for the veteran down field.
4) Darren Sproles is sitting on more benches than you might expect. LT is out and if you drafted him as a handcuff or for depth, it doesn't matter. What does matter is STARTING him and enjoy 25+ touches.


Don't start an Oakland wideout this week. Especially Louis Murphy, but ESPECIALLY Jacon Walker.

1) Louis Murphy isn't ready to be in your starting lineup, even if it's against the Chiefs. That being said, sign him if he's available.
2) Braylon Edwards won't reward that "risk" you took by drafting him this weekend. In fact, he might do that this entire month.
3) Josh Morgan people need to quiet down. It isn't going to happen.
4) Patrick Crayton won't see the endzone this weekend. He won't see the ball inside the 20, actually.

Parting Thought

Darren Sproles is going to have his best chance to showcase his talent, in a franchise-contract season, with the Chargers. Despite last season's playoff breakout against the Colts, this game - against the Baltimore Raven D - may show GM AJ Smith exactly what a future based on Sproles in the backfield may look like. Should be fun.

Okay, you've earned it...

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