The Latest Bailout: Week 8 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

I took the week off and pawned off my work on a good friend (aka C-Go).
Okay, I can at least admit I added the pictures and (hilarious) captions.

Trust me, it's someone who has a more adept touch when it comes to the NFL and (especially) fantasy. But ESPECIALLY fantasy.

Even if he is a Redskins fan.
Although admittedly, one of the eight sane ones.

Now THIS is savvy!!!
Credit: Typepad.com

Here we...go!!!

Read easy, as I’m popping my proverbial blog cherry with a guest spot on PHSports. Luckily we have a lot to talk about heading into Week 8 of the 09’ NFL season, so I’ll dive right in.

Time for the 10 Questions of the Week

One word: BEAST!
Credit: RootZoo.com

1) After back to back victories against the Giants and Dolphins, can the Saints remain undefeated by topping the Falcons on Monday night?
2) Which of the 3 undefeated teams, if any, will fall this week?
3) The Giants… contenders or pretenders?
4) Could the Cowboys actually be the class of the NFC East?
5) How did there come to be so many awful teams in this league?
6) Can the Jets keep pace in the AFC East with a win against the deceivingly decent Miami Dolphins?
7) What’s all the fuss about the Rams/Lions game getting blacked out?
8) Are the Houston Texans a legitimate AFC Wild Card contender, and can they play consistently for 4 quarters? Ever?
9) Can LaDanian Tomlinson prove, at least for one week, that he’s not running on fumes against a pathetic Oakland Raiders rush defense?
10) Will Brett Favre, on his old tundra, prove to the Packers brass that they should have waited just a little longer for the indecisive iron man?

Weekly Picks
Fresh start in Week 8… I like the sound of that.

How have I not seen this picture before?
More on Alex Smith (Niner-prediction & fantasy-wise) below.
Credit: Utah.edu

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (Off)
These two teams are in the same realm of awful, so this one isn’t as easy as it looks. It’s actually an intriguing match-up to me, and more may be on the line than you think… the St. Louis Rams are on the clock! I’ll take the Lions at home, even though Stephen Jackson will come close to 150 total yards… and no touchdowns.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3)
Favre always steps it up in big games, and this as big as they come for Brett Favre in the regular season. Take the Vikings plus the points.

San Francisco @ Indianapolis Colts (-12)
Call me old fashioned, but I just can’t picture Alex Smith (past or present) coming close to Peyton Manning and the Colts in Indy. The line is -12, I have a feeling it’ll be even worse than that… take the Colts.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
The Broncos are in for a big let down coming off the bye. I’m taking the hungry Ravens minus the 3. The Broncos have proven themselves, undoubtedly, but the Ravens are in desperate need of a win and emerging sophomore Joe Flacco will not let them down.

Wildcat thoughts BELOW!!! Clement shudders.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Upset Special #1
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-10)
The Falcons are coming off of an eye opening loss in Dallas, and Matty Ice won’t lay down for the undefeated Saints. I’m not saying Drew Brees won’t lead New Orleans to their first 7-0 start since Jim Mora’s 91’ squad, but it’ll be closer than Vegas thinks. Take the Falcons plus the points.

Upset Special #2
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-3)
It’s hard to believe the Dolphins are 2-4; playing as well as they have against quality opponents. The Dolphins will buck the trend this week by beating Mark Sanchez and the Jets on their own turf. The Jets defense will keep it close, but if Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams can continue their recent success, the Dolphins will roll.

Survivor Pick
Damn Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6 losing to the damn Oakland Raiders. Damn. This week’s mock survivor pick…San Diego (hosting Oakland). I bet you haven’t picked them yet!

The Iggles burned a TON of peeps in Week 6 (Clement and Goings, included). Beware the allure of the Green Man. Seriously, you need to be watching THIS SHOW immediately.



Fantasy-Time
All players listed below would be considered 50/50 start/sits for this weekend in most 10-12 team leagues, taking into consideration bye weeks and injuries.

Don't hold it against Goings that he wants you to start a Ram. They are playing the Lions, you know.
Credit: DallasNews.com

Start
Marshawn Lynch
Donnie Avery
Visanthe Shiancoe
Austin Collie
Darren Sproles

Just avoid this altogether.
Credit: Gibbs12.com

Sit
Reggie Bush
John Carlson
Knowshon Moreno
Braylon Edwards
Alex Smith (either one, honestly)

Fantasy Lock: Steve Slaton
Fantasy Flop: Greg Jennings

Parting Thought…

Oh Danny Boy!!!
Credit: TMZ.com

One team I have yet to mention during my first PHSports write-up is my beloved Washington Redskins. That’s right, I’m a Redskins fan. I’m sure like most Redskins fans this season, times are tough. During the bye week, I want to stay away from the on-field issues and look off-the-field for the latest debacle… well, technically off the field.

Reports have surfaced, and I can tell you first hand from attending ‘Monday Night BeatDown’ (as I like to call it), that the Redskins front office has banned Redskins signs from bring signs or posters into FedEx Field – anti-management posters in particular. Fans were tossed from the game and banned from the stadium for bringing in their “Vinny Sucks”, “Dumb and Dumber”, and “NFL Save Us!” posters and sentiment. One woman was reportedly forced to turn her “Trade Danny!” t-shirt inside out.

If this isn’t rock bottom, I don’t want to stick around for what rock bottom is. Dan Snyder has alienated his fan base with a laundry list of decisions and antics such as these. Since when can you be escorted out by security for calling the owner of the team out on all of his mishaps? Is this Nazi Germany? Is there not something written in that constitution thingy that allows people to speak about something, or something like that? What’s next? “The Star of Danny to be given (Forcibly) to the First 100,000 Fans in Attendance”.

Clement returns next week...unless I can talk Goings into closing out the season.
Wish me luck!!!

Early Edition: Week 7 NFL Predictions

First off, fantasy gets the weekend off. Two reasons:
1) I stink at it.
2) Thursday is a little earlier than I like to predict and prognosticate.

So why the Early Edition? (Remember that show?) Simple. I'll be in Dallas this weekend with the family.

Yeah, I'll check this place out (Falcons @ Cowboys will be on the games being picked this weekend, btw) along the way.
Credit: GoldandtheGame.com

Time for the 10 Questions of the Week

Credit: Newsday.com

1) If (when) Sanchez struggles on Sunday in Oakland, does Clemens see any snaps?
2) Anybody outside of New York and Anaheim (aka LA) that has interest in the ALCS over the NFL weekend slate?
3) Is Cedric Benson ready to lead the NFL in rushing?
4) How will Frank Gore's return impact the 49ers?
5) Speaking of those Niners, what's the over/under on 1 reception for rookie wideout Michael Crabtree?
6) Does anyone actually watch Fox's Brothers? Besides Strahan's family, I mean?
7) Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco: who wins a playoff game this season?
8) Is Roddy White becoming a top-5 NFL receiver?
9) Is Marvin Harrison now officially done?
10) Does Jim Zorn survive after Monday night?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 5-3 (I bet on the Skins and paid the price. As for the Iggles, more on that debacle later.)
Season Total: 20-13 (I made a target of 25-15 at this point. A 5 and 2 week means I need to pick an easy one or two. No dice!)
Upset Special: 2-1 (I went with three road dogs and got 2 out of 3. I would've won big on Arizona and Houston, but the Giants really let me down.)
Survivor Selection: 4-1 (Philly breaks my stranglehold on selecting the "easiest game of the week". Believe me, I wasn't alone. Nevertheless, it still stings.)

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
I'm taking the Stillers, barely, and the home-field advantage. Minnesota can survive losing this game. In fact, you don't want too too much hype this early in the season. Seriously.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+ 4 1/2)
I think this is the week the Chargers get back on track. But mark my words: they aren't winning the AFC West this season. The playoffs aren't out of the question though...yet.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+7)
In a last second change, I'm switching to Philly. I felt like the Skins might be troublesome; however, the reports from practice this week have been flat and uninteresting. No juice left in DC worth mentioning.

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers (-7)
Why do I believe in Carolina and the awfulness that is Jake Delhomme? Steve Smith pouts and responds with 2 TD receptions.

NY Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+7)
I am a negative negative man. The Jet wideouts are extremely banged up and this team can't travel west. If you find this above 7, take the money and run.

Upset Special #1
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-4)
My mom is a LEGIT die-hard Cowboys fan. I know, hate away. I sympathize with the team for her and for Troy Aikman (always a personal favorite). She bleeds the team colors and has never been to a game in Dallas. She missed out in the final year of Texas Stadium, so she deserves a win in her trip out to Big D. Ain't gonna happen. In fact, I question these odds entirely. Matty Ice on the road is enough to eeek out a W. Sorry mom.

Upset Special #2
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (- 2 1/2)
I had a feeling last week with Houston and it would've paid off handsomely. I don't want to sink the Bengals yet, but I think the Bears are a better team and can play well in this envrionment. In fact, I'm picking them to win outright in a rather entertaining matchup (who would've thought that earlier this season?).

I'm dead in the Survivor-pool. I'd love to target the following squad though: Indianapolis. Not the toughest pick in the world, right?

Thanks for the crappy London-matchup Goodell. Thanks.

Parting Thought of the Week

Credit: SeattlePI.com

Let's play the "what-if" game. Crabtree may see 12-15 snaps this week and perhaps even double that next week. Some wild rumors have him starting (opposite Ike Bruce), but still not seeing too many snaps. If the 49ers are able to target Crabtree for a big play or perhaps in the redzone, how does Coach Singletary respond to his former holdout rook? I know I'd love to see it.

Enjoy the weekend slate...

Fresh off the Bye Week: Week 6 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

After taking a week off, I'm back!
Let's be nice and call it a bye week.
In case you didn't know, it came just at the nick of time. Whew.

Time for the 10 Questions of the Week...

Can the Broncos, fresh off of an impressive win against the Patriots at home, truly ready to step up with the NFL's elite and take down divisional-rival San Diego?
Credit: STFUSports.com

1) Can Dick Jauron save his dignity and upset the Jets?
2) Is there a major trade in the works, which is so unlike a typical NFL trade deadline (outside of the Edwards/Adams deals)?
3) Are people truly realizing the scope the Gaines Adams-deal may have on the Bears defense?
4) Are the Rams going 0-16?
5) If Washington loses to KC, is Zorn out even BEFORE the bye week?
6) The the Bengals truly a 5-1 team?
7) Jay Cutler or Matty Ice: who ya go this Sunday night?
8) Braylon Edwards feeling 2 for 2 with TD catches in his first two games with the Jets?
9) Ray Rice is second in total yards from scrimmage in the NFL. Trend or a telling statistic?
10) Seriously, are the Saints for real?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 4-4 (Not my strongest weekend; however, I took a lot of risks. After a "bye week", I expect a stronger performance. Although there are way too many HUGE numbers out here to target too many games.)
Season Total: 16-10 (I'm putting a target out there. 25-15. It can happen. It can.)
Upset Special: 4-2 (Lost a little momentum. No sweat, 2 picks this week will help!)
Survivor Selection: 4-0 (It's just too easy right now with some of these horrid teams out there.)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins (-6 1/2)
Tricky tricky Vegas. Both teams stink. Skins, somehow, win by a touchdown.

Tennnessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-9)
Number still seems kinda big, even for an 0-5 road Titan team, until you realize two things:
A) New England doesn't lose back-to-back games.
B) Collins isn't long for this starting role, Vince Young or not.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3 1/2)
I thought the Panthers would play better last weekend, although the Skins play everyone (bad and really bad) pretty close. The Panthers win, not big but big enough to cover this somewhat surprisingly tight number.

Upset Special #1
NY Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
I wish I could find this number at -3 1/2, but it doesn't exist. The Giants are worth the risk; especially without putting real money on it.

Upset Special #2
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3 1/2)
I refuse to believe in Seattle, even at home. Maybe I'm giving Arizona WAAAY to much credit. Who cares? I want to. So I will!!!

Upset Special #3
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (- 3 1/2)
This prediction is gonna bite me in the ...

Survivor Selection [Gone: New England, Minnesota, Baltimore, & NY Giants]
Philadelphia is going to WAX the Raiders. Not too much brilliance needed to make this pick o' the survivor week.

Fantasy-Time
I'm taking a new route on fantasy. I'm gonna whipe the confusing scoring system OUT and make things very very VERY easy. Start these 5 guys and sit these 5 guys. They're all 50/50 (often FLEX or last-resort) starts. Enjoy the wealth of knowledge!!!

Start (TE-edition)
1) Leon Washington
2) Greg Olsen
3) Mercedes Lewis
4) Devrey Henderson
5) Benjamin Watson
Extra: Josh Johnson (believe it BABY!)

Sit (WR-edition)
1) Lee Evans
2) Jericho Cotchery
3) Vincent Jackson
4) Washington D
5) Bernard Berrian
Extra: Larry Johnson

I know you missed me. See you next week!!!!

Your Job's Your Credit!!! Week 4 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

Much like the opening two titles to this weekly column (Lightning in a Bottle, I’d Like To Touch Jennifer’s Body, Falling, Falling, Falling) and we’re sticking with the nonsensical title route. In fact, it's not going ANYWHERE anytime soon.



Time for the 10 Questions of the Week...

Is Cedric Benson truly a must-start in fantasy these days. Absolutely!!!
Credit: Suntimes.com

1) Which fantasy star will be missed most on Sunday rosters: Michael Turner or Larry Fitzgerald?
2) Can the Jets survive their trip to the Superdome down two corners (Sheppard and Strickland)?
3) Will Rashard Mendenhall take advantage of his opportunity this weekend in a primetime game?
4) Is LT going to be an injury nightmare each and every weekend?
5) Are Virginia Tech players naturally undisciplined in the NFL? Seriously, check out the names and consider it.
6) Which Redskin back should've been traded MOST a few years back: Portis or Betts?
7) Might the Lions have a different type of streak (winning?) in mind after this weekend?
8) Who's your post-4 Weeks MVP gonna be? Does his name rhyme with Shmoo Schmees?
9) Which Saints wideout will see the most of Darrelle Revis?
10) How many INTs do you have for Derek Anderson this Sunday?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 5-2 (Carolina played closer than 14 points - a late pick-6 doomed me - and Miami suffered from a Pennington injury on their trip out West. The game was brutal beforehand, although much closer. Still a solid week.)
Season Total: 12-6 (I'm picking tougher games, with fewer cupcakes than most. I'm gonna set a target of 20-10. It's gonna take a rock solid Week 3 to do so.)
Upset Special: 3-1 (The Phins had won 7 in a row in San Diego and were giving 5.5 points. I bit off more than I could've chewed. Colts big @Zona was an easy call, but far too many people made it.)
Survivor Selection: 3-0 (Picking the Ravens to annihilate the Browns wasn't exactly rocket science.)

Let's make these short and sweet...

Guess who is your NFL touchdown leader after Week 3. Yeah, Mr. McGahee.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Jack Del Rio sucks and the Jags have the worst "homefield advantage" in the NFL. Look for the Titan D to wake up and stack the box against MJD. Titans roll.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-1 1/2)
The game is in Foxboro. I want to see Joe Flacco drive his team down the field when they're trailing in a key game. Oh wait, he did that in the Divisional Round last year. Too bad Brady has done it a lot more. Pats win, barely.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (-3)
Denver could win this game and become a quasi-legit 4-0 game. Tashard Choice is the best RB in Dallas. Because he gets carries on Sunday afternoon, Dallas wins a close one.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10)
Same old Lions. Bears roll as Forte FINALLY gets on track. Although memo to fantasy owners, his rookie season may be his statistically best. Exactly how many Bear RBs have staying power in Chicago since Sweetness. Zippie.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-7 1/2)
They're teasing you to take the Bucs. Don't. Who the hell is Josh Johnson anyways? At least we don't have to hear teases about a 3-1 Skins team (which would be a complete fraud).

Upset Special #1
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7 1/2)
Not sure about LT, Polamalu, or why this spread is so big. What I do know is Phillip Rivers isn't intimidated by anyone. I like the Stillers, but not at this number to cover.

Upset Special #2
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)
A-Rod typically doesn't win games like this, on the home or on the road. Ironically, it could be Ryan Longwell who walks away with the game-winning points (another former Packer). Notice who's name I'm not mentioning? This number won't be covered, one way or another.

…Survivor Selection… [Gone: New England, Minnesota, and Baltimore]
NY Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
You can't pick on the Browns and Rams every week. Plus, both have divisional matchups. Give me the Giants, who reved up Jacobs quite a bit last week. Things are gonna continue to stink for Todd Haley and company.

Fantasy Studs and Duds
[Note: Scoring this week was a tricky as it has been in recent memory. Let me explain.]

...Last Week...[4-3-1, 15-11-1 on the year. Iffy iffy]

Boo Ya: Santana Moss was LARGE, Brett Favre was retro-Favrian in a GOOD way, while Watson and Maroney STUNK up the joint.

What the ???: Matt Cassell completed only 9 passes, but two were for TDs. Len Dale White barely got any touches, but in TD-heavy leagues...he did score one.

Meh: Manningham had less than 60 yards, Shockey didn't eclipse 75 but was over 50 as a tight end, and Berrian caught a season-high but was nowhere near 100 yards or a touchdown. White didn't have 10 touches not 30 yards though, so his TD was neutralized in points per touch leagues quite a bit. Tricky tricky to interpret. Gonna call it 1-1-1.

...as for this week...

A big "holla" to all Santana Moss owners this weekend. Expect a back-to-back BLOWUP!!!
Credit: SocialButt-r-fly.com

STUDS
1) Earl Bennett will catch one of Jay Cutler's 3 TDs this weekend. A Chicago Bear QB is gonna toss 30+ TDs this season. His name is Jay Cutler.
2) Heath Miller will choose this weekend to catch one of his 3 TDs on the season. If you're in a pinch, waiver-wire the Steeler tight end.
3) Eddie Royal is breaking out of his funk this week with 75+-yards and a TD. Bank on it.
4) The Titans D is out there in a ton of leagues. The Jags will make them look good, with at least 1 pick-6 this weekend.

DUDS
1) Don't expect much from Cadillac Williams or Derrick Ward this weekend. Not much at all.
2) Lee Evans is going to end up being the biggest loser in the soon-to-be TO melodrama in Buffalo.
3) Glen Coffee isn't going to be the fantasy-beast you expect this weekend.
4) Zach Miller isn't the only Oakland starter you should have in your fantasy lineup. No Raider should earn that honor.

Parting Thought of the Week

Credit: CNNSI.com

A two time winner of the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award, Chad Pennington's career should be appreciated...even if it may be over. The guy has been discarded a few too many times (especially by the team I love) and he's responded with class, dignity, and more than a few wins. A few of my fondest memories...
A) Leading the Jets to a 41-0 dismantling of Peyton Manning and the Colts on Wild Card Weekend.
B) Following a preseason injury, he cheered on his team and worked the playcalling on the sideline (unlike Michael Vick, who was wheeled around in a wheelchair by his team owner).
C) Flexing his gun, with a torn rotater cuff, after a deep TD pass during a road win against San Diego on Wild Card weekend.

Chad...hope to see you back under center next year.

I'd Like to Touch Jennifer's Body: Week 2 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

Tweet tweet.
Check out running commentary tomorrow TOO for plenty o' NFL commentary and analysis!

Much like last week (Lightning in a Bottle), there's no need to explain this week's title.

Or is there!?!?!

Megan Fox's latest movie could be about just about anything...and I'll be checking it out.
Credit: JennifersBody.com

Before I begin dissecting the weekend that was - and of course, the weekend that will be - it's only fair to keep with last week's momentum and throw out 10 Questions I have for the upcoming weekend slate of NFL-action.

Now for the questions...

Whoops, wrong LT. Wait, what is HE doing!?!?!
Credit: AceShowBiz.com

1) Did I ruin LT's season by drafting him in BOTH of my fantasy football leagues?
2) How many fantasy football nuts will overrate last week's performance by Julius Jones?
3) Could the Rams legitimately challenge the Lions of last season for overall suckiness?
4) Which bet are you more likely to take this weekend: Cutler throws for 4 TDs and 1 INT or Cutler throws for 1 TD and 4 INTs?
5) Is Louis Murphy the most talented receiver in Oakland? Is that saying much?
6) After how many pass attempts will Iggle fans be chanting for Jeff Garcia to replace Kevin Kolb?
7) Has Jeremy Shockey found an identity in the Saints offense?
8) Is Mark Sanchez anywhere near prepared enough to deal with Belichick's scheming?
9) Will the banged up Giants' secondary be able to clamp down on Romo and the sans-TO Cowboy passing attack?
10) How tight might the leash get for Jason Campbell if he struggles against the Rams "D"?

Last Week: 2-3 (Not my finest work, although it shouldn't be a surprise considering I targeting such big numbers and my favorite...road dogs.)
Upset Special: 0-0 (Didn't find one I liked last week. I will this week...)
Survivor Selection: 1-0 (I had New England over Buffalo and WISHED UPON WISHES I was wrong. I hope Leodis McKelvin never finds true love. Bastard.)

9 INTs in his last two games. Over/under for this weekend is 2. You can't push. What do you do???

TotalProSports.com

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6)
I'm picking the Falcons to win the game, as homefield in the NFC is HUGE. Nevertheless, I'm taking John Fox and the Panthers to bust this large number. Despite how putrid Jake Delhomme as last week, the duo of Williams/Stewart will see far more carries. That Steve Smith guy is pretty good too. This should be an entertaining game, with Jason Elam clinching it in the final minutes.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-3)
This screams for a push, which makes me happy it's not a 3 1/2-point line. The Broncos may start 3-0, due to an incredibly crappy schedule. Neither team was impressive last week; however, I feel like Mangini already has built a sinking ship in Cleveland. It's not sour grapes, because Denver stinks too.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (+3)
It'd be a mistake to completely write off the Bears at this point. Despite a putrid performance from Cutler, shabby wideout route running, and plenty of missed opportunities, the Bears nearly won a road opener at Green Bay. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh - as championship teams do - squeaked past Tennessee (in the weekend's only OT game), largely without Troy Polamalu. Look for the Bears to target Greg Olsen in the redzone far more and keep it very very close, yet it won't be enough as the Steelers push Bear fans closer to the ledge...and 0-2.

Upset Special #1
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
I know the Cardinals have a LOT of issues. More than Star Jones. Okay, maybe not that many. Nevertheless, I don't buy Jacksonville. I don't buy Jack Del Rio. Look for the Cardinals - not the savviest of road teams - to keep a back in the backfield to protect Turner and to spread the ball around. The game will be close, in large part due to MJD; however, last season's Super Bowl runner-up will not start 0-2.

Upset Special #2
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
I love how the Cowboy-hating media (i.e. Skip Bayless & Bob Ryan) are rooting for the scoreboard to get hit three-dozen times, rather than analyzing this stellar Sunday Night Football matchup (take that MNF!!!). As for the game, if Tampa had a credible QB...they might've beaten the Cowboys last week. Despite the home crowd and ridiculously ridiculous stadium, I'm taking the road Giants to squeak by in a potential shootout. Brandon Jacobs will feat on the Dallas D this weekend.

...Survivor Selection... [Gone: New England]
I won't take the Redskins at home against the lowly Rams for a variety of reasons. Mainly because I don't see them as a dominant team and I will always take one in my survivor selection. Instead, I'm going to target to take AD (aka Adrian Peterson) and the Minnesota Vikings- even with that Favre guy - against the Lions. While I don't typically like going for a road team, I also don't mind picking against a team who's lost 18 straight games.

Fantasy Studs and Duds:

...Last Week... [6 out of 11 CORRECT)
Right = Dustin Keller (stud), NY Jets D (stud), Justin Gage (stud), Nate Washington (dud), LenDale White (dud), Joey Galloway (dud)
Wrong = Bernard Berrian (stud), Reggie Bush (stud), Mike Bell (dud...whoops), Patrick Crayton (dud), Heath Miller (dud)

...This Week...

Both Jet RBs are worth a start this weekend.
Credit: MySportsRumors.com

STUDS
1) Leon Washington played well in Foxboro last season and could see 20+ touches this weekend, despite the score. Start him in a flex position with a smile on your face.
2) Greg Olsen was whisper quiet last weekend. So what? It won't be that way this weekend. Mark him down for 70+-yards and a TD.
3) Donald Driver is a nice #2 wideout this week for those lacking wideout depth. Rasheen Mathis will follow Greg Jennings around the field, opening things up for the veteran down field.
4) Darren Sproles is sitting on more benches than you might expect. LT is out and if you drafted him as a handcuff or for depth, it doesn't matter. What does matter is STARTING him and enjoy 25+ touches.

DUDS

Don't start an Oakland wideout this week. Especially Louis Murphy, but ESPECIALLY Jacon Walker.
Maricpoa360.com

1) Louis Murphy isn't ready to be in your starting lineup, even if it's against the Chiefs. That being said, sign him if he's available.
2) Braylon Edwards won't reward that "risk" you took by drafting him this weekend. In fact, he might do that this entire month.
3) Josh Morgan people need to quiet down. It isn't going to happen.
4) Patrick Crayton won't see the endzone this weekend. He won't see the ball inside the 20, actually.

Parting Thought

Darren Sproles is going to have his best chance to showcase his talent, in a franchise-contract season, with the Chargers. Despite last season's playoff breakout against the Colts, this game - against the Baltimore Raven D - may show GM AJ Smith exactly what a future based on Sproles in the backfield may look like. Should be fun.

Ex: EveryJoe.com

Okay, you've earned it...

Credit: Flickr.com

Lightning in a Bottle: Week 1 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

No need to explain the title, because it doesn't make any sense.

Nevertheless, here is your quick-fix for what to do and what not to do, betting and fantasy-wise (of course), this upcoming NFL Kickoff Weekend.

"Are you excited for opening weekend?"
The dumbest question since, "Have you seen The Hangover?"
Come on people.
Credit: Filmstage.com

Before I begin with the picks and prognostications, let's go over the 10 Questions (I have) for the weekend at hand.

Bonus question: How does Jack Del Rio still have his job? Seriously?
Look at that jacket...
Credit: SunTimes.com

1) Could anyone care less about the Black Eyed Pea and Tim McGraw "opening" for the Tennessee/Pittsburgh game? I didn't think so.
2) Tony Romo and Roy Williams have GIGANTIC media targets on their backs. How do they handle them against a (seemingly) weakly Tampa Bay squad.
3) Can it get worse for fans in Motown and their (beloved?) Lions?
4) Are a few too many analysts drinking the Kool-Aid about the playoff hopes for the Houston Texans?
5) If you could re-do your fantasy draft, which pick would you switch first?
6) Is that Washington Redskin offensive line ready for the mammoth challenge that the Giants have in store for them?
7) Which (now) absent coordinator-turned-head coach will be most severely missed by his team: Haley, Spags, Rex Ryan, or the field?
8) Is Seattle the safest pick for a team drafting in the top ten to return to playoff-related relevance?
9) What is playoff-related relevance, Clement?
10) Is Tom Brady going to seemlessly guide the Patriots back to the Super Bowl, past the likes of Big Ben/Rivers/Peyton/etc?

As for the picks...here we go. 5 games only this week. Sorry for the short stack.

Don't worry, I'm not a chicken. I pick the tough ones! Cocka cocka cocka caw!
Best show EVER. Not even close either. Seriously. SERIOUSLY!!!!
Credit: ClemsLansing.com

Season Total: 0-0 (Hey, it might be one of my better marks this campaign.)
Upset Special: 0-0 (Last year was NOT a positive showing.)
Survivor Selection: 0-0 (Well lookey lookey...something new.)

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6 1/2)

I don't make it a habit of picking against defending Super Bowl champs at home in Week 1. However, that lingering 1/2 is just teasing me. Vegas knows something many others don't. Kerry Collins is 37 and the Titans have been miserable in recent years without Alby in the middle. I expect the Titans to be a playoff contender, but not guilty of knocking of the Stillers in the Ketchup Bottle. Polamalu can clinch it for me with a late Pick-6.

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons (-4 1/2)
Unlike most "experts", I don't mind picking road dogs. However, this is just a taste of what the Dolphins can expect this season: a BRUTAL schedule. While I like Ronnie Brown being as healthy as possible, I'll take Ryan/Turner/White and the newly acquired Gonzalez to cover the 4 1/2. Big question is: can John Abraham give former teammate Chad Pennington nightmares. Me thinks so.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1)
Is this my road dog upset? Nope. The Eagles are slight favorites not only over the Panthers but perhaps in the NFC. While we know Carolina is going to run five times more than it'll pass, I'm wondering how committed Andy Reid is towards his shaky-ankled RB (Westbrook) and his (could he be a phenom) rookie RB (McCoy)? I'll give the edge to the Iggles based on my preference of F. McNabb over Delhomme.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6 1/2)
The 49ers are a sleeper pick to snag a wild card and to perhaps move to the top of the AFC West. Not so fast. Arizona isn't returning to the Super Bowl; however, the offense is extremely talented and as long as Warner is upright, I like his chances against the NFC West. I'd feel better if it was under 6, but I also don't like betting against Larry Fitzgerald. Frank Gore might run wild, but the Cardinals will control this game due to the QB matchup: Warner versus Shaun Hill.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10 1/2)
Terrell Owens' first game against New England ends with a dynamic drive down the field by Trent Edwards with a game winning pass to...Lee Evans. Sorry, Buffalo newspapers can only dream of such a title. The Patsies own the Bills more convincingly than any sporting analogy I can think of. The Monday Night Football doubleheader STINKS (why always Oakland exactly?) and this game will be an absolute laugher. Get ready for an angry TO early and often. At least Andrea Kramer won't be able to make googily eyes at Tom Brady. [This is also YOUR Survivor League best pick. Don't overthink these leagues and "save" your top teams. Pick the safest bet each week, for as long as you last.]

Fantasy Studs and Duds
Note: I'm not going to be an ESPN-ite and tell you to start guys high on your draft board like Anquan Boldin or Thomas Jones in a flex-spot. That's idiotic. Here are five guys to avoid and five to embrace.

...5 Studs...
1) Bernard Berrian is going to catch a long TD from Favre in Week 1. He might not catch another one, but you can bank on at least one this weekend for the Vikings' speediest receiver.
2) Dustin Keller is going to see a lot of targets from Mark Sanchez. I won't guarantee a touchdown; however, if you neglected the position or hate your matchup...you could do much much worse than Keller.
3) There's no guarantee Reggie Bush is your #2 running back. If he is your #3, unless you're stacked at the position...start him. I see 50+ rushing yards, 75+ receiving, and a touchdown from Bush.
4) The New York Jet Defense earned a lot more fantasy points last season than you expected. Enter Rex Ryan, Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, and plenty of hype. Exit, via suspension, Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace. Combine that with a STACKED fantasy offense, playing at home, in Houston...(deep breath) don't start the Jet D in Week 1.
5) Nate Washington is the next dud who will be exposed in Tennessee as a free agent B-U-S-T. Good luck to those who sorely overrated this #1-receiver (it's Justin Gage by the way).

...5 Duds...
1) I'm not buying the recent Internet-fueled hype for Mike Bell. No way, no how.
2) Every year Heath Miller has 3 good games and 13 duds. Don't try it this week. He may catch a TD even, but only for 7 yards (on his only catch). Don't do it...
3) LenDale White isn't going to see the endzone. Chris Johnson may, but "Tequilla" won't. Look for the Titans to throw in the redzone when the Stillers clamp down. Good luck, Kerry Collins.
4) Don't put any money on Patrick Crayton being the possession receiver in Dallas. When the ball isn't being thrown to Witten and Roy Williams, it's being carried by Marion Barber III, Felix Jones, and (maybe even) Tashard Choice.
5) Joey Galloway is nowhere near worthy of a roster spot until two weeks of consistent performance. He's not as healthy as some people want to believe, nor will the targets be often enough in that offense (for now).

Parting Thought

I guarantee you don't realize how FAST Chris Johnson truly is.
Credit: UnlockedSports.com

See you in the funny pages...

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Indianapolis at San Diego

Indianapolis Do's & Don't's:

Do ride Peyton Manning's hot hand. Manning should be the NFL's MVP, and the way he played over the last four games of the season should carry over. If Manning gets going with a pitch 'n' catch game, it could get ugly.

Do rest assured that the Indy defense is a whole different beast with Bob Sanders in the lineup. The defending defensive player of the year missed a lot of time this year, but even a hurt Bob Sanders brings a lot to that defense, psychologically.

Do use this game to strike fear in the hearts of other teams in the playoffs by making a statement.

Don't let that win over the Chargers on November 23rd fool you. It was a close game, but it was also a team that was 4-6 going into the game. The Chargers have confidence, and football is a sport where mind, at times, can outdo matter.

Don't let the defense sit back and do anything but attack. Regardless of Sanders's presence, the defense cannot match up size-wise against the Chargers. This is one of the speediest front seven's in the league and in the NFL, speed translates to turnovers. Freeney, Brock and Dawson must pitch a tent in San Diego's backfield.

San Diego Do's & Don't's:

Do let Rivers get started early in the passing game. His 11 to 1 TD/INT ratio over the last four games must continue if the Chargers are to have a chance in this game.

Do believe that Tomlinson has something left in the tank. While he had a down season, and showed signs of aging, Tomlinson didn't have to carry the load during the four game win streak. He might have had the rest he needed to come into this game ready to hit the ground running.

Do get the ball in the hands of Darren Sproles. He is the home run threat on this team. With a well-timed 25+ yard run/catch, he could serve as a momentum changer as well.

Don't let this game rest on the defense. It's time to run up the score and expect a shoot out. The Colts are licking their chops ready to take on this defense that did so poorly against the pass all season.

Don't allow Norv to Out-Clever himself. Draw plays on 3rd and long are far from cute when the season is on the line. The Chargers have size on the offense. They have the potential to beat up the smaller Colts defense. A heavy dose of Tomlinson, Tolbert, Jackson, Gates and Chambers should open the door for the aforementioined big play by Sproles.

Key Matchups:

When Either Team has the ball
QBs & WR/TEs vs. DBs
This classic shootout will come down to how much of a dent the DBs for either team can put in the receiving game for either team. The numbers show that this could be a hellacious shootout, but if this turns into a low-scoring game, the DBs deserve tremendous credit.

Intangibles:

Momentum
Both teams are coming off of winning streaks. San Diego won their last four, while Indy won their last nine. One would lean towards Indy in this case, but when does a team become complacent in their winning? Not trying to say Indy thinks they can put it in cruise control, but could San Diego, being on a fresher winning streak, be hitting their stride?

Defense
Not in the sense of which defense can step up and shut the other team down, but moreso which defense will make the big play that puts the ball back in their offense's hands? Don't be surprised if a single defensive play determines the outcome of the game.

Final Score Prediction:
Colts win: 43-31

Clement's Weekly Picks & Prognostications...Week 17

So it's come down to this.

For those of you not jumping off the ledge, you should be fantasy-free (no true league has anything going on in Week 17) and the official stretch-drive to the playoffs ends (or does it truly begin) this weekend.

Best of luck to all of you on the "playoff" bubble.
Except for Pats fans, of course.

Let's cut the politicking (is that a word?) and jump into the fun!!!

I'm not picking the Lions game. To be honest, even I'm not rooting for them to go 0-16.
That, my friends, is the ultimate pitty.
Credit: New York Times

NFL Picks: 41-30 [Pretty terrible at 58% success, even if they aren't the "gimmes". Terrible, indeed.]
Upset Special: 14-11 [This record was once close to 5-10, so the 3-0 weekend deserves a BOO YA.]

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+6.5)

Sadly, we won't get to see JP LOSS-man's smiling face on the bench this week.
Credit: DayLife.com

New England smells the playoffs and knows it can put a TON of pressure on the Dolphins. Interestingly, both Miami and the Jets should know the final of this game before their kickoff. How much of an impact that is scares me. Pats in a ROUT. I'm talking 30+ point-W.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1 1/2)

Is Armin's old "draft-day" man crush ready to be a Week 17 factor? Armin???
Credit: Google Images

This is a tough game as both teams took major steps backwards. Duh, Clement. Anyways, I'm less inclined to penalize Philly because they were overachieving a bit and the Redskin D has been stout all season. Dallas ran into an angry Baltimore team and it's pass rush didn't seem too affected. While McNabb will obviously be under constant pressure, I wonder if the Dallas O - especially without a 100% Marion Barber III - can click enough in hostile Philly to earn the W and thus a playoff spot. The soap opera won't end...yet. Dallas wins somehow, someway.

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texas (-3)

The only beards worse than Kyle Orton's...maybe.
Credit: MissionCalifornia.com

Houston can finish out the season in style, but they've done that before. Meanwhile, Chicago has to avoid scoreboard watching with the Vikes playing a resting-Giant squad also at 1pm. Somehow, I see Hester making a big play or two and the Bears playing inspired football. Even if it leads to no playoff reward.

Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)

We need to see more coaching - and less talking about his "master motivating" - before I get sick.
Credit: ESPN.go.com

Singletary appears ready to lock up with the Niners for a few years; meanwhile, Zorn appears to have at least one more year in San Fran. I see Portis and Campbell playing for nothing but pride (maybe contract $$$ for Campbell) and the Skins eeking out a road W.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore (-12 1/2)

Mr. Garrard. All Jet fans pray the game's lasting moments this weekend aren't like last week's.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Ravens roll, but not by 13+. The Jags will attempt to grind it out and make a statement for next year. Spoiling the Ravens' season might be the perfect offseason "bright spot" for an otherwise depressing season.

Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets (-2 1/2)

So what's the over/under on Clemens taking 1 snap?
Credit: CNNSI.com

Jets lose and the fans may cry S-U-C-K. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kellen Clemens take some snaps, even before the 4th quarter. The Jets can't pressure the QB, force turnovers, or drive downfield (outside of the first drive). Unless they have a pick-six (or two) in mind, Miami is winning the AFC East. Who'd have thunk that one?

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9)

Seriously, where has AC been this season? WHERE!?!?
Credit: Google Images

Call me crazy, but I don't see a San Diego 35-10 victory. Of course, winning by even 10 is likely. Thus this tricky spread. Nevertheless, I won't call for the Denver road upset; however, I suspect San Diego will be complacent in the 1st half and then win in the 2nd. I'd feel so much better if this spread were 10...


Best of luck to all this Sunday. Even if the "playoffs" for you will be nothing more than NFL Draft prep...

Clement’s Weekly Picks & Prognostications…Week 16

First off, it's time for the 'excuse' as to why I didn't post on Friday.
Well, a partial dislocation of my left elbow did the trick!

Two words: not fun.
Credit: LSBU.uk

Two more weeks to go and the NFL season is officially white hot.

Wouldn't you know it, but both the AFC and NFC have every seed up for grabs.
(Note: The exception to the rule came true Thursday night as Indy clinched the #5-seed after defeating the Jags 31-24.)

True, several teams have clinched either a division (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Arizona), a bye (Tenn & Pitt), and others just a playoff spot…wait, none of the “wild-card” are locked up yet (again, except Indy).

Interestingly enough, Carolina can win next week and clinch the #1-seed in the NFC OR lose out and potentially miss the playoffs altogether. Best-case to worst-case, to say the least.

6-8 San Diego is alive; meanwhile, it’s possible an 11-5 Patriot team could miss the playoffs (not likely though). Even crazier is that two 10-6 teams (as opposed to just Cleveland last season) AFC teams and several NFC will likely miss the playoffs.

Imagine if the Falcons and Phins end up 10-6 and both are out of the playoff picture.
The Jets could go from 8-3 and Super Bowl contenders to 9-7 and 2 games out of the playoffs.
Skin fans have sentiments far drearier as their playoff path seems invisible, despite a 6-2 start.

You gotta love this time of year, right? NO.
It’s far too much stress I tell you. Too much!
Fortunately, you have me to kick around…as my picks have suddenly become sublimely average.

NFL Picks: 41-26 [Taking credit for the Bears W over the ‘Aints. Pay can back me up. I swear!]
Upset Specials: 11-10 [If I can get this thing to something like 16-12, it’s a respectable season.]

I’m taking each and every game that MATTERS. HONEST!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans (+1)
Chucking the Titans to the side of the road is a mistake. An even bigger mistake is noticing how the Steelers do nothing but dominate fourth quarters. With Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth already ruled out, I don’t like Titans chances for brusing up Big Ben and an underachieving Steeler rush game. Tight ends will play major factors in this game and I’ll take the veteran Pro Bowler Troy Polamalu over the emerging talent Michael Griffin at the other key position, safety. That means I’m going Steelers for the cover.

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4)
Don’t sleep on the Phins facing a challenge this week. They play teams close and aren’t likely to blow anyone out. Problem for KC this week (and every week) is turnovers, the pistol formation stifling LJ in the redzone, and the overall lack of playmaking talent on the defensive side of the ball. Pennington won’t have that crippling 3-turnover game that allows 2-12 teams to pull upsets. Phins cruise, which means a win by 7-10. Joey Porter may have 20 sacks on the year after this game for his season tally. 2 extra INTs too.

San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Not the best time for Tampa to struggle with stopping the run. Then again, LT is a shred of his former self this season. Remember the Bucs are 6-0 at home and they realize their playoff lives are on the line. A division title still remains a possibility; enhanced even more with Jeff Garcia likely back under center. While the Chargers can really put a TON of pressure on Denver (who has no gimme itself this weekend), I like the Bucs to move to 10-5 and end the Charger season across the country.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (No Line)
Not sure what’s going on with the psyche of either team right now; however, I’m taking the Broncos to win a close one. In all honesty, I flipped a coin.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The game is in Minnesota, so I’m taking the Vikings. You need more? A-Pete versus The Burner should be amazing. The real storyline may be Ryan & Jackson though. While I’m not sold on Tavaris, I am also not sold on the Atlanta D on the road. Vikes win, with probably a push on this 3. I'm pulling for the upset though.

Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants (-3)
Another game that screams for a push. The G-Men must improve the juice in their pass rush - despite their lack of depth this time of the season - and force Jake Delhomme to rush throws into a crowded secondary. While I don’t want to go 0-3 in consecutive weeks with the G-Men, I also don’t know if the Panthers will run all that well against the Giants. I’ll take New York’s finest football team. If DeAngelo Williams was a Pro Bowl snub, we'll know after this weekend.

[Picking Against My Own Team] Upset Special #1:

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks (+5)
I pissed and moaned last week and the Jets did almost everything they could to lose at home - after leading 14-3 (with the ball at midfield early in the 2^nd quarter) – to the lowly Bills. Nevertheless, a win is a win. Or is it? While some Jets are talking about the lack of need for style points…I’m questioning offensive playcalling, a bland defensive scheme, zero intricacy with blitz packages, and a lack of reliance on the rush offense with the lead. Seriously, only 1 carry for Leon Washington? I’m calling for the outright upset here by the Hawks. Why? I know the Jets all too well. 8-3 was maybe the worst thing that happened to this team and coaching staff.

[Monday Night] Upset Special #2:

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-4 ½)
Spoiler alert! Not sure why, but it will be!

[Quasi-]Upset Special #3:

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (-4 ½)
Obviously, this is a VERY different game if it’s being played in Baltimore than in Texas Stadium; especially weather-wise. The health of Tony Romo may quickly come into question - especially considering the ferocity of hits the Ravens lay on opposing QBs - as without Romo the Boys are DOA. Ditto for the patience of Cam Cameron in Joe Flacco if DeMarcus Ware can get around the corner and pressure the rookie QB. If Flacco can't make big throws downfield, the Ravens won't dink and dunk their way to a road W. Two other factors really stick out: the Ravens unbalanced line and the lack of a Raven running game. One needs to help the other as the new line-formation won't do enough if it's only intention is to contain Ware on the edge. My pick is the Cowboys; however, I’m sticking with the Ravens to keep it close. Very close.

Ten Fantasy Insights/Questions on Championship Weekend:
1) If you don't have your championship in Week 16…your league stinks.
2) If you are pairing up a regular season title with a potential playoffs title, that’s awesome.
3) If you are pairing up a regular season tite, point’s lead, and a playoff title…you are awesome.
4) If you are the 8-seed playing for the playoff championship, I have two words for you: silver lining.
5) If your NFL team is out of it, I hope your fantasy team isn’t.
6) Whose your fantasy MVP: Kurt Warner, Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson, or maybe even Tony Gonzalez?
7) Whose your fantasy LAMO over the year: Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, or maybe even LT as your #1 overall pick?
8) Which rookie QB did you ride to a greater fantasy surprise: Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco?
9) Who's the #1 pick next year: Adrian Peterson or the field?
10) Is Matt Cassell a top 7-8 QB – wherever he is – next season (fantasy football-wise).

See you next week…to close out the regular season (gulp).