Falling, Falling, Falling, Falling: Week 3 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

No running commentary today. A new column pops up tomorrow, a Monday-edition - each and every week - of InClement Weather. See you then for NFL reactions and a Monday Night predictions (or two)...

Much like the opening two titles to this weekly column (Lightning in a Bottle, I’d Like To Touch Jennifer’s Body), we’re sticking with the nonsensical title route.

You know you like it…or you soon will.

No need to explain. It’s time for 10 Questions of the Week…

Seriously, do I even need to formally address my interest around this topic?
Credit: SportsJonez.com

1) Is everyone a little too hysterical over the early success of both Rex Ryan’s defense and Mark Sanchez?
2) Is Joe Flacco really this effective in the Raven offense?
3) How legit are these Mike Singletary-inspired San Francisco 49ers?
4) Is Frank Gore a legitimate threat to rush for more yards than Adrian Peterson this season?
5) Dustin Keller, Zach Miller, or John Carlson: which young tight end has the brightest future?
6) Which rookie head coach gets a W first: Raheem Morris or Todd Haley?
7) How many catches, no less TDs, do you have TO dropping this week?
8) Will the Skins struggle with the Lions…or lay a beatdown upon the Motor City’s “finest”?
9) Which backup QB might see non-injury or blowout-related snaps first: Derek Anderson or the field?
10) Is Michael Crabtree doing serious damage to his playing career by sitting out his entire rookie campaign?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 5-1 (That’s right. I love me some road dogs. Only Carolina…barely…cost me perfection.)
Season Total: 7-4 (We’re going to make a serious push next week to establish a solid winning mark. As if you care…)
Upset Special: 2-0 (I found 2 I LOVED and this is where the money was to be made last weekend.)
Survivor Selection: 2-0 (Ask me why I idiotically didn’t make the same selection in my actual survivor league. Ask me!)

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+6.5)
I took the Rams last week against the Skins and cashed big. As for this week, the Packer offense is going to wake up and win by at least a TD. Sometimes your picks don’t make much sense…

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Hasselbeck’s injury is serious. Seattle’s homefield advantage isn’t any longer. Look for Matt Forte to be the difference in this game as the Bears move to 2-1.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
Vegas knows something. I’m just sayin’. Take the Pats and avoid watching this game if you have money on it. Otherwise…enjoy!!!

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
This number was even bigger at the beginning of the week. Seriously. Dallas is 1-1 and not this many points better – even at home – than the 0-2 Panthers. While I’m taking Dallas for the W, this is waaaay too many points to leave hanging out there in the wind.

Upset Special #1
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5)
If only this game were at 1pm and in Miami…I’d take the Phins in a heartbeat. I don’t know what the Chargers are, but I do know they’re not Super Bowl contenders. I’m taking the Phins to keep it close and potentially even get the outright W. They started 0-2 last year and beat the Patriots on their way to 11-5. I’m not calling 11 wins, but I am calling an avoidance of 0-3.

Upset Special #2
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (-3)
It’s not as easy as it looks, as Arizona manned up a lot last week. However, it was at Jacksonville and a Jack Del Rio-coached team. While I expect fireworks from both offense, the numbers against Indy’s Pass D are pretty surprising (only 6 passing TDs allowed all of last season). While Warner and Fitz can rock that trend, I’m taking Manning to be magical again in primetime.

…Survivor Selection… [Gone: New England & Minnesota]
Baltimore is going to WAX Cleveland at home this weekend. If you need an explanation as to why, you don't watch enough football.

Fantasy Studs and Duds

Am I big on Manningham this weekend? Not so much...
Credit: SBNation.com

…Last Week… [5 out of 8 correct…11 out of 19 this season correct]

Correct = Donald Driver (stud…and I sat him), Darren Sproles (stud…and I started him), Louis Murphy (dud), Josh Morgan (dud), and Patrick Crayton (dud).
Incorrect = Leon Washington (stud), Greg Olsen (stud…so close), and Braylon Edwards (dud).

STUDS
1) Santana Moss owners won’t get their 100-yard game; however, there TD-catch is on the way this weekend in MoTown.
2) Jeremy Shockey is being targeted early and often by Drew Brees. Expect plenty of Saint points in Buffalo and Shockey to continue his rather surprising fantasy start to the season.
3) Brett Favre is going to air it out against the Niners secondary. They’ll stack the box against AD and force the 39-year old QB to beat them. And he will.
4) Bernard Berrian is catching a 60+-yard TD this week…if he suits up healthy.

DUDS
1) Matt Cassell may be without Dwayne Bowe and the Eagles D is not going to allow back-to-back eruptions. Sit him NOW.
2) Mario Manningham was a popular pickup this week. Don’t start him though as the Giants will run run run the ball against the Tampa D.
3) Chris Johnson is going to dominate the touches for the Titans, for better or worse. LenDale White isn’t bound to do much of anything this weekend.
4) 2 for 1 SPECIAL!!! It’s a little too wet for me to be excited about Benjamin Watson at QB or Laurence Maroney in any sort of flex start. Oh yeah, Maroney sucks too!

Parting Thought of the Week

Credit: Jessica Simpson

Romo can't leave the fans this upset in primetime again.
Step it up!!!

Lightning in a Bottle: Week 1 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

No need to explain the title, because it doesn't make any sense.

Nevertheless, here is your quick-fix for what to do and what not to do, betting and fantasy-wise (of course), this upcoming NFL Kickoff Weekend.

"Are you excited for opening weekend?"
The dumbest question since, "Have you seen The Hangover?"
Come on people.
Credit: Filmstage.com

Before I begin with the picks and prognostications, let's go over the 10 Questions (I have) for the weekend at hand.

Bonus question: How does Jack Del Rio still have his job? Seriously?
Look at that jacket...
Credit: SunTimes.com

1) Could anyone care less about the Black Eyed Pea and Tim McGraw "opening" for the Tennessee/Pittsburgh game? I didn't think so.
2) Tony Romo and Roy Williams have GIGANTIC media targets on their backs. How do they handle them against a (seemingly) weakly Tampa Bay squad.
3) Can it get worse for fans in Motown and their (beloved?) Lions?
4) Are a few too many analysts drinking the Kool-Aid about the playoff hopes for the Houston Texans?
5) If you could re-do your fantasy draft, which pick would you switch first?
6) Is that Washington Redskin offensive line ready for the mammoth challenge that the Giants have in store for them?
7) Which (now) absent coordinator-turned-head coach will be most severely missed by his team: Haley, Spags, Rex Ryan, or the field?
8) Is Seattle the safest pick for a team drafting in the top ten to return to playoff-related relevance?
9) What is playoff-related relevance, Clement?
10) Is Tom Brady going to seemlessly guide the Patriots back to the Super Bowl, past the likes of Big Ben/Rivers/Peyton/etc?

As for the picks...here we go. 5 games only this week. Sorry for the short stack.

Don't worry, I'm not a chicken. I pick the tough ones! Cocka cocka cocka caw!
Best show EVER. Not even close either. Seriously. SERIOUSLY!!!!
Credit: ClemsLansing.com

Season Total: 0-0 (Hey, it might be one of my better marks this campaign.)
Upset Special: 0-0 (Last year was NOT a positive showing.)
Survivor Selection: 0-0 (Well lookey lookey...something new.)

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6 1/2)

I don't make it a habit of picking against defending Super Bowl champs at home in Week 1. However, that lingering 1/2 is just teasing me. Vegas knows something many others don't. Kerry Collins is 37 and the Titans have been miserable in recent years without Alby in the middle. I expect the Titans to be a playoff contender, but not guilty of knocking of the Stillers in the Ketchup Bottle. Polamalu can clinch it for me with a late Pick-6.

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons (-4 1/2)
Unlike most "experts", I don't mind picking road dogs. However, this is just a taste of what the Dolphins can expect this season: a BRUTAL schedule. While I like Ronnie Brown being as healthy as possible, I'll take Ryan/Turner/White and the newly acquired Gonzalez to cover the 4 1/2. Big question is: can John Abraham give former teammate Chad Pennington nightmares. Me thinks so.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1)
Is this my road dog upset? Nope. The Eagles are slight favorites not only over the Panthers but perhaps in the NFC. While we know Carolina is going to run five times more than it'll pass, I'm wondering how committed Andy Reid is towards his shaky-ankled RB (Westbrook) and his (could he be a phenom) rookie RB (McCoy)? I'll give the edge to the Iggles based on my preference of F. McNabb over Delhomme.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6 1/2)
The 49ers are a sleeper pick to snag a wild card and to perhaps move to the top of the AFC West. Not so fast. Arizona isn't returning to the Super Bowl; however, the offense is extremely talented and as long as Warner is upright, I like his chances against the NFC West. I'd feel better if it was under 6, but I also don't like betting against Larry Fitzgerald. Frank Gore might run wild, but the Cardinals will control this game due to the QB matchup: Warner versus Shaun Hill.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10 1/2)
Terrell Owens' first game against New England ends with a dynamic drive down the field by Trent Edwards with a game winning pass to...Lee Evans. Sorry, Buffalo newspapers can only dream of such a title. The Patsies own the Bills more convincingly than any sporting analogy I can think of. The Monday Night Football doubleheader STINKS (why always Oakland exactly?) and this game will be an absolute laugher. Get ready for an angry TO early and often. At least Andrea Kramer won't be able to make googily eyes at Tom Brady. [This is also YOUR Survivor League best pick. Don't overthink these leagues and "save" your top teams. Pick the safest bet each week, for as long as you last.]

Fantasy Studs and Duds
Note: I'm not going to be an ESPN-ite and tell you to start guys high on your draft board like Anquan Boldin or Thomas Jones in a flex-spot. That's idiotic. Here are five guys to avoid and five to embrace.

...5 Studs...
1) Bernard Berrian is going to catch a long TD from Favre in Week 1. He might not catch another one, but you can bank on at least one this weekend for the Vikings' speediest receiver.
2) Dustin Keller is going to see a lot of targets from Mark Sanchez. I won't guarantee a touchdown; however, if you neglected the position or hate your matchup...you could do much much worse than Keller.
3) There's no guarantee Reggie Bush is your #2 running back. If he is your #3, unless you're stacked at the position...start him. I see 50+ rushing yards, 75+ receiving, and a touchdown from Bush.
4) The New York Jet Defense earned a lot more fantasy points last season than you expected. Enter Rex Ryan, Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, and plenty of hype. Exit, via suspension, Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace. Combine that with a STACKED fantasy offense, playing at home, in Houston...(deep breath) don't start the Jet D in Week 1.
5) Nate Washington is the next dud who will be exposed in Tennessee as a free agent B-U-S-T. Good luck to those who sorely overrated this #1-receiver (it's Justin Gage by the way).

...5 Duds...
1) I'm not buying the recent Internet-fueled hype for Mike Bell. No way, no how.
2) Every year Heath Miller has 3 good games and 13 duds. Don't try it this week. He may catch a TD even, but only for 7 yards (on his only catch). Don't do it...
3) LenDale White isn't going to see the endzone. Chris Johnson may, but "Tequilla" won't. Look for the Titans to throw in the redzone when the Stillers clamp down. Good luck, Kerry Collins.
4) Don't put any money on Patrick Crayton being the possession receiver in Dallas. When the ball isn't being thrown to Witten and Roy Williams, it's being carried by Marion Barber III, Felix Jones, and (maybe even) Tashard Choice.
5) Joey Galloway is nowhere near worthy of a roster spot until two weeks of consistent performance. He's not as healthy as some people want to believe, nor will the targets be often enough in that offense (for now).

Parting Thought

I guarantee you don't realize how FAST Chris Johnson truly is.
Credit: UnlockedSports.com

See you in the funny pages...

Tuesday FourCast: Week 9

I've given this week's FourCast a commercial theme for the most part. While we all look forward to Super Bowl commercials, the current commercials (especially during the Presidential Campaigns) are the type of mindless drivel that could drive us all insane. Anyway...I'll kick it off with the worst of them all.

1) Saved By Zero

I now understand the annoyance level of Terrell Owens (sorta). Watching college and NFL football over the last three weekends has caused me to hear the all too familiar jingle on the Toyota commercials. I have even discussed the fact that the cars in the commercial are animated, and the fact that the Prius doesn't get that kind of financing because the market is hot for them and Toyota wants to put it to Prius buyers with their financing. Regardless, the commercial is driving me insane. Anyway...T.O. seems to be dealing with the same kind of frustration when it comes to his QBs. Brad Johnson was nothing short of...well...short on a lot of his noodle-armed passes. Brooks Bollinger showed his true value on his first play (an interception). The Cowboys are in shambles, and while the return of Romo would make T.O. less frustrated, there seems to be more to fix on that team than just the QB situation. Some DBs that can cover would be a start.

2) Can you hand your team to a man who has never been in charge of anything?

While McCain's Campaign aired this commercial way too much, I think Curt Menefee made a great observation in his live editorial on Fox NFL Sunday which asked the same question. There are too many teams out there that are run by non-football people. I'm interested to know which team he mentioned is now run by a former blogger. It makes me feel qualified to run a team. He also mentioned that these non-football people running these teams have made knee-jerk reactions to the media and the criticism of their respective teams. While I'm not going to complain about how well they're doing now, as a Redskins fan I have seen this with Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato. They are not football guys, and it's taken them a while to get to the current success that they're having. How many teams are dealing with this issue? I would say Oakland is a pretty good place to begin.

3) $5 Foot Long

A bargain, right? Except when you realize you just saved $0.19 on your sub. Want a real bargain? Look no further than the Titans who just finished up a perfect first half of the season. They entered this season with nearly $18 million in cap space (6^th lowest cap figure in the league). In my opinion, several factors lead to the 8-0 Titans. First and foremost, you start with Jeff Fisher. He has been the head coach of the franchise since 1994 (replacing Jack Pardee late in the season). The defensive system has been intact since that time, and while the offense has changed somewhat over that time, the overall structure remained. At the QB position, they actually have a real QB playing. Kerry Collins has solidified that offense with his ability to make reads (better than Vince Young, at least) and complete passes. Finally, you add Chris Johnson to the mix, who is everything Chris Henry was supposed to be at RB for this franchise. Many jumped on the Titans on draft day for taking Johnson so early. The Titans are having the last laugh with Johnson, who is leading the AFC in rushing. If they can secure homefield advantage over the next 8 weeks, they could find themselves playing for the Lombardi.

4) This is a Test

For the next sixty days, the "team" known as the Lions will conduct a test of the Emergency QB System. This is only a test. However, should Daunte Culpepper show us anything during that time, he could resurrect his career (sort of). One of the questions is whether the Lions are the right team for him. A few things don’t make a lot of sense. Culpepper (as Sum would put it) is no spring chicken. Drew Stanton was about to be handed the reigns this year. The Lions are in rebuild mode. I don’t think I’ll be too far out on a limb to predict that this union between Culpepper and the Lions won’t end in any kind of great success.

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 7

Okay. It's either time to cancel these weekly posts, have a road-underdog intervention, or just kick butt one week.

You know which way I'm going!!!

NFL Picks: 12-11 [I'm going to be near 20 wins after this weekend. Just watch.]
Upset Special: 4-6 [You gotta crawl before you walk.]

..tackling the Sportsbook this week...

San Francisco @ NY Giants (-10 1/2)
JT O'Sullivan is turning over the ball at an alarming pace in recent weeks. Nevertheless, this is a lot of points for an offense that isn't giving enough carries to Brandon Jacobs week in and week out. I'm taking another road dog, but like that I'm getting a double-digit cushion.

Tennessee @ Kansas City (+9)
Taking a road favorite to cover? You know he we do. Especially with LJ suspended for a week. Bastard.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-9 1/2)
The Stillers get me every time. Big deal. Big time road cover. The intervention is needed NOW!

NY Jets @ Oakland (+3)
I know, I never pick Jet games. An ugly 4-2 team they'll be though. Jamarcus Russell will turn the ball over 3 times in another bad loss.

Upset Special #1
San Diego @ Buffalo (-1)
The Chargers need to develop some consistency outside of desperation primetime games. Trent Edwards needs to stay healthy and the Bills need to force turnovers. Gimme the Chargers straight up, please.

Upset Special #2
Cleveland @ Washington (-7 1/2)
I love that 1/2. Zero chance I want the Browns straight up. However, the Skins might win a shootout; yet, I love cheap TDs to bust open big spreads.

Upset Special #3
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots (-3 1/2)
This number kinda surprises me. New England is ridiculously banged up and not a safe bet at home (see Miami three weeks ago). Both coaches need this game BAD...for this season, at least. Shanahan takes it outright.

5 Fantasy MUST Starts:
1) Darren McFadden is good for 75 and a TD.
2) Issac Bruce is catching his 89th career TD this weekend.
3) Steve Smith is going for 60 yards and a touchdown (the Giant Steve Smith).
4) The Titans D might score 2 defensive TDs this weekend. Salavate.
5) Sammy Morris is a sneaky flex-play. But nothing more.

5 Fantasy MUST Sits:
1) Don't start Jamal Charles for LJ. Just don't.
2) Don't start Wes Welker these days. Just don't.
3) Don't start Patrick Crayton until we decide how effective BJ/Romo/Williams are. Just don't.
4) Don't start Joe Flacco EVER. Just don't.
5) Don't start Bo Scaife. Titan TEs are impossible to predict. Just don't.

Fantasy "What If":
What if Tony Romo plays...
Whomever the Cowboy QB is, he's tossing 3 TDs. Yeah, I said it. TO, Roy, and Witten will all catch TDs. It's a feeling. Stephen Jackson might be the fantasy stud of the game. He's gonna catch 8-9 passes. Mark it down.

That's all I gots.

Until next session...

Romo Out 4 Weeks With Broken Pinkie

Michael Smith of ESPN.com reports Tony Romo will be out four weeks with a broken pinkie suffered in Sunday's overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

If Romo misses the next four weeks as stated, Brad Johnson will deputize against Rams (1-4), Bucs (4-2) and Giants (4-0). After the Giants game, the Cowboys will have their bye week. Realistically, the Cowboys could be staring at 5-4, and the Giants will have yet another break after facing the Peewee version of the Washington Redskins followed by three fraudulent teams that have totaled two wins.

I wonder when TO will have an interview this week with Graham Bensinger to say that if Brett Favre was the Cowboys quarterback, they'd be 6-0. Four catches and only 36 yards against a shoddy secondary will bring out the living, breathing carcinogen that wears number 81 for the Cowboys.

Tuesday FourCast: Week 3

Clement is always a tough act to follow. The guy just has a knack for analyzing what happens on the field/court/rink/pitch/etc. Now it's my turn, and I do my analysis like I like my football games...UGLY!!! Week 3 had its shares of ups and downs, but I decided the bigger stories were more interesting to me.

Without much further ado...here's your Tuesday FourCast


#1. The Bane of Their Existence

How fitting is it that the team to end the New England Patriots' 21-game regular season winning streak would be the Miami Dolphins? The Curse of the '72 Dolphins persists. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Somebody has to shut those geezers up, and stop those corks from popping. I am not a fan of the Pats, but would have been fine if they put a cork in those geezers last year. Regardless of who is playing QB, nobody expected a 38-13 drubbing. But, is that what this team has become without Brady? Sure, they didn't have Maroney, but what does Maroney mean to that team anyway? He's been highly replaceable in my opinion. Would last year's Patriots have given up 4 TDs on the same gimmick play? Is Randy Moss giving up on another team? Charlie Casserly seems to be alluding to that. Regardless, we saw something that none would have dreamed while watching the Patriots tear through the league last season. The Foxboro faithful booed their own team.


#2. Al Davis and His Red Kimono

In Japan, by the time man reaches the age of 60, he is commemorated with a special ceremony. This ceremony features the man wearing a red kimono, which denotes that he no longer has the responsibilities of being a mature adult. Al Davis has been wearing a proverbial red kimono for some time now. The whole Lane Kiffin situation is nauseating. What self-respecting coach with any kind of experience would consider "coaching" the team under Al Davis? Kiffin is part of a long line of coaches that Al Davis has walked all over, dating at least back to when Shanahan was there. Davis owns a team that acts just as juvenile as he does. He breeds an environment for immaturity. The Raiders Culture is no longer a bunch of players who intimidate the other team on the field. They are now a team of individuals who do whatever they want at the detriment of the team. The latest, a Davis confidant John Herrera, showed those that saw the post-game video how despicable of a person he is. I say they parade him around the sidelines in Al's Red Kimono the rest of the season, before firing him.


#3. Jerrah and his Blue Storm

Switching from Al Davis to the owner that I respect the most in the NFL. Jerry Jones may be a meddlesome owner, but he knows his football. He's one of the better GMs in the league, and could probably head to the sidelines and coach that team. Jerrah is everything Al Davis tries to be (while failing miserably). He also deserves a ton of credit (so does Tuna) for having the best team on the field every Sunday. And yes, that is the most painful thing for a Redskins fan to say. The makeup of this team has championship written all over it. Now if they can just win their first playoff game in over a decade. Franchise QB, check. One-Two Punch at RB, check. Star Receivers, check. All-Star Offensive Line, check. Their offense has put up 96 points in the first three games. The defensive front seven is stacked like a 3-4 defense should be, with a slew of gutsy linemen and talented backers. The defensive backs are so deep with starting caliber talent that they can adjust to any team's style. Some haters will point to the players with unattractive character, but they forget the guys that are good influences on the team (Tony Romo, Flozell Adams, Zach Thomas, Ken Hamlin). Watching them pound the Packers this week cemented my feelings about the Cowboys. While I don't see them matching the regular season of the 2007 Patriots, I can easily see this team making another addition to the team's Lombardi Trophy case.


#4. The Bane of Their OWN Existence

Some are pointing to the St. Louis Rams as being the worst team in the NFL. However, I believe the owner of that title belongs to the Detroit Lions. I especially loved William Clay Ford, Jr. coming out and saying his father should fire Matt Millen so that the team can reach some level of success. No truer words have been spoken. The Lions are 31-84 under Millen. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time, because they go on the road in week 5, where Millen's road record is 8-49. While St. Louis is 0-3, they played teams like Philly, the Giants and the Seahawks (two playoff teams and a team that's playing like they're playoff bound). The Lions on the other hand have played two weak teams (Atlanta & San Fran), made them look good and have given up 113 points after 3 games. Their running game is in shambles, Kitna keeps putting the team in a bad situation by claiming they're going to win 10 games every year (giving other teams the motivation to shellack them), the offensive line, as talented as the individuals are, can't put it all together for an entire game, and the defense isn't playing with much heart outside of the LB corps. Management needs to show Millen the door. Not just for his mistakes, but also to give the team a fresh start from the top. The team may even need a fresh start from the coaching staff that runs the team more like a boot camp. Either way, it will be a long season for the Lions, and they may be looking at the #1 pick in the draft.

5 NFL Questions – Week 3

1. How will Tony Romo be received at his homecoming?
2. Will the Raiders be smart and kick away from Roscoe Parrish?
3. Will the Eagles’ offense continue to roll or will Pittsburgh make them return to reality?
4. Which late game will yield the most points scored?
5. Which underdog (excluding Carolina) will win today?

2008 Season NFL Predictions

Last year I began what I hoped would become an annual tradition. Making my NFL regular season and playoff predictions by going through and picking a winner in each of the 256 games played during the regular season. Following that, I determine which teams make the playoffs by handling all tie-breakers according to NFL rules. And unlike many other "professional" sports writers, I held myself accountable before the next season, taking myself to task when I f'd up, and patting myself on the back for the few correct things (like picking the Chiefs to go 4-12).

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2008-2009 NFL Season, berate them as you must:

NFC
NFC East *Dallas 13-3 **Philadelphia 10-6 NY Giants 8-8 Washington 6-10 Dallas is clearly the class of this division. The high powered offense plus the mean defense means another dominant season for Jerry Jones’ squad. Meanwhile, the Iggles should be back behind D-McNabb and Westbrook. The Giants defense is too banged up to be able to drag the offense into the playoffs again. And the Redskins will have growing pains under first year coach Jim Zorn.	NFC North *Minnesota 12-4 Green Bay 8-8 Chicago 5-11 Detroit 4-12 Minnesota should do very well this season, despite having Tarvaris Jackson at the helm. But if he plays the “Trent Dilfer” role, then the Vikes will be atop the Norris division again. Green Bay will perform decently as Aaron Rodgers gets used to leading the team, but they’ll be better next year. Chicago is slightly less abysmal with Orton at QB. Detroit … well, Matt Millen will somehow avoid being fired.
NFC South *Carolina 11-5 **New Orleans 10-6 Tampa Bay 7-9 Atlanta 4-12 Carolina will work out some early season kinks and Delhomme will find his touch just in time to guide the Panthers well. The Saints will also be back in the mix of things with their high-powered offense and average defense. Tampa will try a few different QBs and stumble their way through a sub-par season. Atlanta may finish with the same record as last year, but they’ll be a stronger team as Matt Ryan gets his NFL education.	NFC West *Seattle 12-4 San Francisco 6-10 Arizona 6-10 St. Louis 5-11 A piss poor division to say the least. Seattle is a solid team surrounded by mediocrity. The Hawks will follow their defense and a running back by committee routine to the top of the division. San Fran will have a steady hand in J.T. O’Sullivan, but will have enough troubles to avoid achieving success. The Cardinals are still mired in their QB controversy, and I don’t see it going away. The Rams … well, they need an overhaul at WR and QB.
Tie breaker note: MIN gets the 2-seed due to a better in-conference record than SEA; NO gets the 5-seed by virtue of a better won-lost-tied percentage than PHI in common games.
AFC
AFC East *New England 13-3 NY Jets 9-7 Buffalo 5-11 Miami 5-11 The Pats will not finish undefeated again, an aging defense will stop that from happening. However, they’re still atop the AFC and will dominate the East. The Jets will bounce back from the garbage they fed their fans last year, but the vanilla offense led by Favre will be figured out by teams as the season goes on. Buffalo and Miami are both better than their records suggest, but each still has some bugs to work out before they can crack an 8-8 season.	AFC North *Pittsburgh 10-6 Cleveland 8-8 Cincinnati 5-11 Baltimore 4-12 Pittsburgh wins this division, almost by default. Even with a diminished offensive line, they should win out here. Cleveland isn’t as bad as their 8-8 finish, but they won’t be in contention for the playoffs this year. Anderson’s magical ride will start to turn sour and we’ll see the rise of Brady Quinn. Cincy may or may not have Chad Ocho Cinco, depending on his torn labrum, but even with him, the defense is too weak to have much success in the AFC. The Ravens are too green on the offense and too old on the defense.
AFC South *Indianapolis 12-4 **Jacksonville 11-5 Tennessee 9-7 Houston 7-9 The Colts have a nice strangle-hold on the South … even though they’re in the Midwest. Peyton has plenty of targets, and he’ll make use of all of them. The Jaguars like what they have on the offense, and Matt Jones may finally emerge as a solid receiver. The Titans need Vince Young to learn to throw the ball before they become a truly serious threat. Houston will need to solve its running back quartet before they can truly expect to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.	AFC West *San Diego 13-3 **Denver 11-5 Oakland 4-12 Kansas City 3-13 Norv Turner may just have a heart attack. Poor guy isn’t used to this success thing, but when L.T. leads your team, it’s hard not to find it. I expect Denver to have a solid season with Jay Cutler having his diabetes under control and finding rhythm with both Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Oakland’s record is tied to the health of Darren McFadden and the use of outlet receivers by JaMarcus Russell. Kansas City is just bad. Barring a return to glory by L.J., they’ll be worse than last year.
Tie breaker note: NE gets the 1 seed by virtue of a head-to-head win over SD. JAC gets the 5-seed due to a head-to-head win over DEN.

Wildcard Playoffs (winner in Italics)

Philadelphia at Seattle – Seattle has had an awesome home advantage in the playoffs in recent history. That continues against the more talented Philly team.

New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina let the Saints win the regular season finale since that really wouldn’t affect their playoff stance. However, the real Carolina team shows up this time.

Denver at Indianapolis – Cutler performs remarkably throughout the season, and gives Peyton a run for his money in this match-up. Ultimately, however, the Colts are a far more complete team than the Broncos.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – Garrard and MoJoDro lead the way as the Steelers don’t even put up a real fight.

Divisional Playoffs

Carolina at Dallas – Another year, another playoff disappointment for Tony Romo. Marion Barber, III plays his heart out, but in the end it’ll be the two-headed rushing attack of Carolina that’ll leave T.O. in tears again.

Seattle at Minnesota – Seattle’s defensive line will put way too much pressure on Tarvaris Jackson to allow the mediocre QB to do anything other than hand the ball off. The lack of a passing game will be enough to allow Seattle to squeak by the Vikes.

Jacksonville at New England – Wow. This AFC Divisional round looks kinda similar, no? The result of this portion will look similar as well, with Tom Brady looking picture perfect in a nail-biter against the talented Jags.

Indianapolis at San Diego – This half of the AFC Divisional round, however, won’t be a repeat. Indy romps the Bolts in San Diego, setting up football’s equivalent of Nadal vs. Federer in the AFC Championship game.

Conference Finals

Seattle at Carolina – The Panthers return to the Super Bowl, this time following the lead of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Delhomme likes having more than one option at WR, and guides his team past a stingy Seattle defense.

Indianapolis at New England – Tom Brady has one thing on his mind … another Super Bowl ring. Joe Cool, Jr. is up to the task and directs his less talented team to a nice victory in the frigid Massachusetts weather.

Super Bowl

Carolina vs. New England – I don’t like predicting repeats of recent Super Bowls (especially if there’s no chance of a repeated wardrobe malfunction), but I guess I’m really high on the Panthers this season. On paper, the Panthers should win this one with their strong offense against the aging Pats defense. But that won’t happen. New England makes up for it’s crappy play in the last Super Bowl and wins this one 24-20.