Last year I began what I hoped would become an annual tradition. Making my NFL regular season and playoff predictions by going through and picking a winner in each of the 256 games played during the regular season. Following that, I determine which teams make the playoffs by handling all tie-breakers according to NFL rules. And unlike many other "professional" sports writers, I held
myself accountable before the next season, taking myself to task when I f'd up, and patting myself on the back for the few correct things (like picking the Chiefs to go 4-12).
Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2008-2009 NFL Season, berate them as you must:
NFC |
| NFC East *Dallas 13-3 **Philadelphia 10-6 NY Giants 8-8 Washington 6-10 Dallas is clearly the class of this division. The high powered offense plus the mean defense means another dominant season for Jerry Jones’ squad. Meanwhile, the Iggles should be back behind D-McNabb and Westbrook. The Giants defense is too banged up to be able to drag the offense into the playoffs again. And the Redskins will have growing pains under first year coach Jim Zorn. | NFC North *Minnesota 12-4 Green Bay 8-8 Chicago 5-11 Detroit 4-12 Minnesota should do very well this season, despite having Tarvaris Jackson at the helm. But if he plays the “Trent Dilfer” role, then the Vikes will be atop the Norris division again. Green Bay will perform decently as Aaron Rodgers gets used to leading the team, but they’ll be better next year. Chicago is slightly less abysmal with Orton at QB. Detroit … well, Matt Millen will somehow avoid being fired. |
| NFC South *Carolina 11-5 **New Orleans 10-6 Tampa Bay 7-9 Atlanta 4-12 Carolina will work out some early season kinks and Delhomme will find his touch just in time to guide the Panthers well. The Saints will also be back in the mix of things with their high-powered offense and average defense. Tampa will try a few different QBs and stumble their way through a sub-par season. Atlanta may finish with the same record as last year, but they’ll be a stronger team as Matt Ryan gets his NFL education. | NFC West *Seattle 12-4 San Francisco 6-10 Arizona 6-10 St. Louis 5-11 A piss poor division to say the least. Seattle is a solid team surrounded by mediocrity. The Hawks will follow their defense and a running back by committee routine to the top of the division. San Fran will have a steady hand in J.T. O’Sullivan, but will have enough troubles to avoid achieving success. The Cardinals are still mired in their QB controversy, and I don’t see it going away. The Rams … well, they need an overhaul at WR and QB. |
| Tie breaker note: MIN gets the 2-seed due to a better in-conference record than SEA; NO gets the 5-seed by virtue of a better won-lost-tied percentage than PHI in common games. |
| AFC |
| AFC East *New England 13-3 NY Jets 9-7 Buffalo 5-11 Miami 5-11 The Pats will not finish undefeated again, an aging defense will stop that from happening. However, they’re still atop the AFC and will dominate the East. The Jets will bounce back from the garbage they fed their fans last year, but the vanilla offense led by Favre will be figured out by teams as the season goes on. Buffalo and Miami are both better than their records suggest, but each still has some bugs to work out before they can crack an 8-8 season. | AFC North *Pittsburgh 10-6 Cleveland 8-8 Cincinnati 5-11 Baltimore 4-12 Pittsburgh wins this division, almost by default. Even with a diminished offensive line, they should win out here. Cleveland isn’t as bad as their 8-8 finish, but they won’t be in contention for the playoffs this year. Anderson’s magical ride will start to turn sour and we’ll see the rise of Brady Quinn. Cincy may or may not have Chad Ocho Cinco, depending on his torn labrum, but even with him, the defense is too weak to have much success in the AFC. The Ravens are too green on the offense and too old on the defense. |
| AFC South *Indianapolis 12-4 **Jacksonville 11-5 Tennessee 9-7 Houston 7-9 The Colts have a nice strangle-hold on the South … even though they’re in the Midwest. Peyton has plenty of targets, and he’ll make use of all of them. The Jaguars like what they have on the offense, and Matt Jones may finally emerge as a solid receiver. The Titans need Vince Young to learn to throw the ball before they become a truly serious threat. Houston will need to solve its running back quartet before they can truly expect to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC. | AFC West *San Diego 13-3 **Denver 11-5 Oakland 4-12 Kansas City 3-13 Norv Turner may just have a heart attack. Poor guy isn’t used to this success thing, but when L.T. leads your team, it’s hard not to find it. I expect Denver to have a solid season with Jay Cutler having his diabetes under control and finding rhythm with both Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Oakland’s record is tied to the health of Darren McFadden and the use of outlet receivers by JaMarcus Russell. Kansas City is just bad. Barring a return to glory by L.J., they’ll be worse than last year. |
| Tie breaker note: NE gets the 1 seed by virtue of a head-to-head win over SD. JAC gets the 5-seed due to a head-to-head win over DEN. |
Wildcard Playoffs (winner in Italics)
Philadelphia at Seattle – Seattle has had an awesome home advantage in the playoffs in recent history. That continues against the more talented Philly team.
New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina let the Saints win the regular season finale since that really wouldn’t affect their playoff stance. However, the real Carolina team shows up this time.
Denver at Indianapolis – Cutler performs remarkably throughout the season, and gives Peyton a run for his money in this match-up. Ultimately, however, the Colts are a far more complete team than the Broncos.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – Garrard and MoJoDro lead the way as the Steelers don’t even put up a real fight.
Divisional Playoffs
Carolina at Dallas – Another year, another playoff disappointment for Tony Romo. Marion Barber, III plays his heart out, but in the end it’ll be the two-headed rushing attack of Carolina that’ll leave T.O. in tears again.
Seattle at Minnesota – Seattle’s defensive line will put way too much pressure on Tarvaris Jackson to allow the mediocre QB to do anything other than hand the ball off. The lack of a passing game will be enough to allow Seattle to squeak by the Vikes.
Jacksonville at New England – Wow. This AFC Divisional round looks kinda similar, no? The result of this portion will look similar as well, with Tom Brady looking picture perfect in a nail-biter against the talented Jags.
Indianapolis at San Diego – This half of the AFC Divisional round, however, won’t be a repeat. Indy romps the Bolts in San Diego, setting up football’s equivalent of Nadal vs. Federer in the AFC Championship game.
Conference Finals
Seattle at Carolina – The Panthers return to the Super Bowl, this time following the lead of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Delhomme likes having more than one option at WR, and guides his team past a stingy Seattle defense.
Indianapolis at New England – Tom Brady has one thing on his mind … another Super Bowl ring. Joe Cool, Jr. is up to the task and directs his less talented team to a nice victory in the frigid Massachusetts weather.
Super Bowl
Carolina vs. New England – I don’t like predicting repeats of recent Super Bowls (especially if there’s no chance of a repeated wardrobe malfunction), but I guess I’m really high on the Panthers this season. On paper, the Panthers should win this one with their strong offense against the aging Pats defense. But that won’t happen. New England makes up for it’s crappy play in the last Super Bowl and wins this one 24-20.
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