Monday, August 11, 2008

2007 NFL Predictions: Review/Analysis

Last summer, I made my preseason predictions for every NFL team’s final record, the playoff teams and the Super Bowl. Y’all stuck with me as I made three sets of picks: before the draft, after the draft (and once free agency cooled down) and finally just before the start of the regular season. This year, there are just going to be two posts. This post, in which I’ll berate and applaud my 2007 picks (where appropriate), and a post devoted to my 2008 picks, due sometime before September 4.

Just as a reminder, I made these picks by printing out the 2007 NFL regular season schedule and selecting the winner of each of the 256 games. Tiebreakers for playoff spots and seedings were determined based on those selections per the NFL guidelines. No HGH or steroids were taken in making these picks.


NFC East

*Philadelphia 11-5

**Dallas 10-6

Washington 8-8

NY Giants 4-12

Considering that all teams finished 8-8 or higher in this division, I didn’t do so bad … with the exception of the G-Men. Yeah, sorry, screwed the pooch on that one! Who knew that Eli would grow a pair and score the biggest upset in Super Bowl history?

I still think I get some minor props for only being 1-game off on the ‘Skins record when peeps mocked me for it.

NFC North

*Chicago 13-3

Green Bay 9-7

Detroit 5-11

Minnesota 2-14

Here’s where I should’ve told y’all off and stuck to my 11-5 record for the Pack (from my 1st set of picks). Instead I paid some attention to the bashing by some “anonymous” poster who bashed the number of wins I had for them.

And why the hell did I drink the Chicago kool-aid? Did I really trust Grossman/Benson? And, yes Vikes fans … my bad.

NFC South

*New Orleans 11-5

Carolina 9-7

Tampa Bay 5-11

Atlanta 4-12

I got the Falcons record dead-on (pat on back). Everything else was pretty crappy. I thought the loss of Simeon Rice would have affected the Bucs negatively … guess I was wrong.

Though, I still wonder if the Saints could’ve finished 11-5 if Deuce hadn’t gone down after week 3…

NFC West

*Seattle 10-6

**San Francisco 10-6

St. Louis 8-8

Arizona 7-9

Initially I had the Rams at 6-10 … and even that was too good for them! I totally overshot the ‘49ers (d’oh … so much for Alex Smith), but got the Seahawks dead on both in record and place in the division.

The Cardinals did just about how I expected in terms of their record … but who knew that they would’ve finished 2nd?


AFC East

*New England 12-4

NY Jets 8-8

Buffalo 5-11

Miami 3-13

Well … I got the top and bottom of this division right, just messed up the placing of the Bills and Jets. In terms of records, I was actually more accurate with the Fins and Bills (2 games off) than the Jets and Pats (4 games off).

Though, I would like to point out that Mr. Anonymous (from the GB discussion above) also bashed my New England pick here, claiming the Pats wouldn’t even win a playoff game. Good job, buddy.

AFC North

*Baltimore 13-3

**Cincinnati 11-5

Pittsburgh 10-6

Cleveland 4-12

Aside from getting the Steelers record exactly right, I fudged the bucket everywhere else in the AFC North. I had this division pegged as the strongest in the AFC, but was dead wrong … and Brian Billick paid the price (sorry Bri Bri).

I finished a whopping 18 games off the pace overall in the AFC North. You may now commence your berating.

AFC South

*Indianapolis 12-4

Tennessee 9-7

Jacksonville 6-10

Houston 5-11

I got the easy picks right in the South … Indy first and Houston last. But I underestimated the entire division (primarily thanks to my overestimation of the North … friggin Ravens).

Not much else to say here, other than I blew it by blaming the Jaguars for sticking with Garrard. And while I did think that Tennessee would be in the playoff hunt, I didn’t give them enough credit to make the post-season. Shamed again.

AFC West

*San Diego 13-3

**Denver 12-4

Kansas City 4-12

Oakland 3-13

The only division that I picked correctly from top to bottom. However, the main thing I’d like to point out is that the Kansas City Chiefs actually finished 4-12. Why is this important? Oh … I’ll tell you why.

In my initial picks, I had KC at 4-12, yet “Chris” from “Arrowhead Pride,” opted to be a homer and a dick combined. I think I might just quote him: “the Chiefs will win more than 4 games. I will take a bet on this.” Well Chris, all I can say is … Pay up, biatch! I will gladly take a win here.

Exact Records predictions: Four (Atlanta, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Kansas City (in bold just for Chris)).

Records picks within 2 games: Fourteen (Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona, Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Tennessee, San Diego, Kansas City and Oakland).

Exact Division Rank Predicted: Twelve

Playoff Teams Predicted Correctly: Five

Wildcard Playoffs

San Francisco over Seattle – San Fran didn’t make it and Seattle beat Washington decisively in round one.

Dallas over Philadelphia – Philly didn’t make it and Dallas had a first round bye.

New England over Cincinnati – Cincy stayed home and the Pats had a bye.

Indianapolis over DenverDenver stayed home and Indy had a bye.

Divisional Playoffs

Dallas over Chicago – Chicago … losers. Dallas also earned that title in the Divisional round by losing to the Giants.

San Francisco over New Orleans – umm … yeah …

New England over Baltimore – New England DID win here, but they took out the Jaguars instead (so much for “Anonymous” saying that neither of my Super Bowl teams would win a playoff game … biatch #2).

San Diego over Indianapolis – So I wrote it … so it happened.

Conference Finals

San Francisco over Dallas – Yeah … “Anonymous” can gloat over this one … San Fran was a wasted pick by yours truly, but I did have the balls to take a chance.

New England over San Diego – Again … so I wrote it … so it happened.

Super Bowl

New England over San Francisco – friggin’ Eli.

Once more ... Just for Chris :-)

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