2007 NFL Predictions: Review/Analysis

Last summer, I made my preseason predictions for every NFL team’s final record, the playoff teams and the Super Bowl. Y’all stuck with me as I made three sets of picks: before the draft, after the draft (and once free agency cooled down) and finally just before the start of the regular season. This year, there are just going to be two posts. This post, in which I’ll berate and applaud my 2007 picks (where appropriate), and a post devoted to my 2008 picks, due sometime before September 4.

Just as a reminder, I made these picks by printing out the 2007 NFL regular season schedule and selecting the winner of each of the 256 games. Tiebreakers for playoff spots and seedings were determined based on those selections per the NFL guidelines. No HGH or steroids were taken in making these picks.

NFC
NFC East *Philadelphia 11-5 **Dallas 10-6 Washington 8-8 NY Giants 4-12 Considering that all teams finished 8-8 or higher in this division, I didn’t do so bad … with the exception of the G-Men. Yeah, sorry, screwed the pooch on that one! Who knew that Eli would grow a pair and score the biggest upset in Super Bowl history? I still think I get some minor props for only being 1-game off on the ‘Skins record when peeps mocked me for it.	NFC North *Chicago 13-3 Green Bay 9-7 Detroit 5-11 Minnesota 2-14 Here’s where I should’ve told y’all off and stuck to my 11-5 record for the Pack (from my 1st set of picks). Instead I paid some attention to the bashing by some “anonymous” poster who bashed the number of wins I had for them. And why the hell did I drink the Chicago kool-aid? Did I really trust Grossman/Benson? And, yes Vikes fans … my bad.
NFC South *New Orleans 11-5 Carolina 9-7 Tampa Bay 5-11 Atlanta 4-12 I got the Falcons record dead-on (pat on back). Everything else was pretty crappy. I thought the loss of Simeon Rice would have affected the Bucs negatively … guess I was wrong. Though, I still wonder if the Saints could’ve finished 11-5 if Deuce hadn’t gone down after week 3…	NFC West *Seattle 10-6 **San Francisco 10-6 St. Louis 8-8 Arizona 7-9 Initially I had the Rams at 6-10 … and even that was too good for them! I totally overshot the ‘49ers (d’oh … so much for Alex Smith), but got the Seahawks dead on both in record and place in the division. The Cardinals did just about how I expected in terms of their record … but who knew that they would’ve finished 2nd?
AFC
AFC East *New England 12-4 NY Jets 8-8 Buffalo 5-11 Miami 3-13 Well … I got the top and bottom of this division right, just messed up the placing of the Bills and Jets. In terms of records, I was actually more accurate with the Fins and Bills (2 games off) than the Jets and Pats (4 games off). Though, I would like to point out that Mr. Anonymous (from the GB discussion above) also bashed my New England pick here, claiming the Pats wouldn’t even win a playoff game. Good job, buddy.	AFC North *Baltimore 13-3 **Cincinnati 11-5 Pittsburgh 10-6 Cleveland 4-12 Aside from getting the Steelers record exactly right, I fudged the bucket everywhere else in the AFC North. I had this division pegged as the strongest in the AFC, but was dead wrong … and Brian Billick paid the price (sorry Bri Bri). I finished a whopping 18 games off the pace overall in the AFC North. You may now commence your berating.
AFC South *Indianapolis 12-4 Tennessee 9-7 Jacksonville 6-10 Houston 5-11 I got the easy picks right in the South … Indy first and Houston last. But I underestimated the entire division (primarily thanks to my overestimation of the North … friggin Ravens). Not much else to say here, other than I blew it by blaming the Jaguars for sticking with Garrard. And while I did think that Tennessee would be in the playoff hunt, I didn’t give them enough credit to make the post-season. Shamed again.	AFC West *San Diego 13-3 **Denver 12-4 Kansas City 4-12 Oakland 3-13 The only division that I picked correctly from top to bottom. However, the main thing I’d like to point out is that the Kansas City Chiefs actually finished 4-12. Why is this important? Oh … I’ll tell you why. In my initial picks, I had KC at 4-12, yet “Chris” from “Arrowhead Pride,” opted to be a homer and a dick combined. I think I might just quote him: “the Chiefs will win more than 4 games. I will take a bet on this.” Well Chris, all I can say is … Pay up, biatch! I will gladly take a win here.

Exact Records predictions: Four (Atlanta, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Kansas City (in bold just for Chris)).

Records picks within 2 games: Fourteen (Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona, Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Tennessee, San Diego, Kansas City and Oakland).

Exact Division Rank Predicted: Twelve

Playoff Teams Predicted Correctly: Five

Wildcard Playoffs

San Francisco over Seattle – San Fran didn’t make it and Seattle beat Washington decisively in round one.

Dallas over Philadelphia – Philly didn’t make it and Dallas had a first round bye.

New England over Cincinnati – Cincy stayed home and the Pats had a bye.

Indianapolis over Denver – Denver stayed home and Indy had a bye.

Divisional Playoffs

Dallas over Chicago – Chicago … losers. Dallas also earned that title in the Divisional round by losing to the Giants.

San Francisco over New Orleans – umm … yeah …

New England over Baltimore – New England DID win here, but they took out the Jaguars instead (so much for “Anonymous” saying that neither of my Super Bowl teams would win a playoff game … biatch #2).

San Diego over Indianapolis – So I wrote it … so it happened.

Conference Finals

San Francisco over Dallas – Yeah … “Anonymous” can gloat over this one … San Fran was a wasted pick by yours truly, but I did have the balls to take a chance.

New England over San Diego – Again … so I wrote it … so it happened.

Super Bowl

New England over San Francisco – friggin’ Eli.

Once more ... Just for Chris :-)

Super Bowl XLII Running Commentary...

Scroll below to check out some of last night's commentary. Anything you wanted to add or subtract??? Let us know. [I've never been happier to be SO wrong.]

Final Score
New York wins 17-14.

Despite being picked against by countless staff writers,
Eli and the Giants are Super Bowl champs.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

4th Quarter
Giants have the ball at their own 20. They must make some noise here on this drive, right? Kevin Boss!?!? Seriously!?!? Another crucial 3rd and 4. Why is Merriweather in so much? Giants take the lead in the 4th...to David Tyree. Giants lead 10-7. Eli Manning is establishing a potential legacy. Moss is slowly being established. No flag on 3rd down for illegal hands to the face on Usi and on Dockery (holding). The Giants need to pound Jacobs NOW. Great avoidance of a sack, but it's useless without hitting Plax. Toomer needed to make that 1st. Come on, it's the Super Bowl man! Amazing tackle by Harrison. Costly 3 and out. That's the first funny thing from Will Ferrell since Anchorman. Here come to the dink-dunk Patriots of Super Bowls-ago. Uh oh. The pass rush looks anemic. The Pats are targeting the go-ahead 7. The middle of the field is WIDE-OPEN. Where are the trash-talkers today: Antonio Pierce & Plexico Burress? 3rd and goal: will there be any pass rush or plenty o' time for "King" Brady? Touchdown to Randy Moss. It's great when the "good guys" get the chance to earn that Super Bowl. To quote Joe Buck: "A methodical drive from the game's best." Patriots lead 14-10. Is the dream over for the G-Men? What coverage on the kickoff. Alright, Eli. It's now or never. Is Eli a 2-minute drill QB? Only 1 catch so far for Plax. Solid. [Anybody else clearly tell who I'm rooting for? Jacobs...barely gets it. Adalius Thomas chose today to finally earn some of that bloated contract. 80 seconds from 18-1 or 19-0. Eli breaks free amazingly and Tyree may have made a catch BETTER than any Swann could ever produce. Thomas again. Unblockable in such a situation when you can't chip him. 3rd and long. Uh oh, indeed. Steve Smith has played in several big games before this, but WOW. Burress on the TD. Amazing. Amazing. Amazing. Giants lead 17-14. Eli has established the legacy. Maybe he's not Jake Delhomme. Will the Pats get to Plax's predicted 17? 29 seconds left. Desparate playcalling. Game over. The New York Giants have just won Super Bowl 42. MVP: Eli Manning.

Greatest catch in Super history? You better believe it.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Writer's Note: This Terminator vs. Fox Robot battle is epic. It's the new Bud Bowl.

3rd Quarter
New England leads 7-3.

Patriots stopped on their opening drive. Or were they? Games shouldn't be decided on plays like "12th man on the field, out of the play, by 18 inches". Kevin Faulk is unstoppable on any 3rd down. COVER HIM! Strahan is still too good to consider retiring. Going for it on THAT 4th and 13? What egotism. Key stop by the Pats near their own 40. The Giants may need a trick-play or a fluke to score a TD. Why aren't they bumping Welker? 14-3 will be too much; however, the Giants are still one-play from a lead. On either side of the ball.

Is this tandem 15 minutes away from their 4th Super Bowl?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Comments from the staff...
Armin: Wes Welker is the MVP after 3 quarters.
Paymon: 15 more minutes til college basketball officially begins.
Clement: Just like we ALL believed, Patriots leading as we enter the 4th.
Peanut Gallery: Bananas? That's what you give us Pam Oliver?

Enjoy halftime. (Not Tom Petty. Unless he does Freefallin'...10 years ago.)

2nd Quarter
New England leads 7-3.

Laurence Maroney scores on a 1-yard touchdown. Antonio Pierce hit the ball, but not even a mini-bobble from Maroney. New England leads 7-3. Amani Toomer might have made a top-5 catch, all-time, in the Super Bowl. 1st turnover of the game, inside the Patriot 15-yard line for the Giants. Impressive trade of 3 and outs for each side. How did Woods NOT recover that fumble? The Patriots don't bypass opportunities like that typically. Have you ever seen Brady sacked twice in a row like that? Giants blow another impressive drive by not protecting Eli's back side. The Patriots have given them a chance to at least be up 9-7, no less maybe 17-7. Pats with the ball, 3 timeouts, and nearly 2 minutes. Any chance they don't score? Justin Tuck may be the 1st-half MVP.

Welker has established himself early and often all over the field.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Question of Note: Is it me, or was Steve Smith a second out of breaking off that route and catching a slant for a touchdown? Eli rushed the throw.

Comments from the staff...
Armin: 10 total points?!?!
Paymon: The Giants can't keep giving up golden opportunities to put points up on the board.
Clement: Take THAT tuck rule.
Peanut Gallery: These commercials aren't that impressive. Money not well spent.

1st Quarter
New York leads 3-0
[Tynes 35 yd FG]

Giants marched down the field on 16 plays, converting several early 3rd downs, but stalled inside the redzone and settled for a field goal attempt. Fueled by a strong kickoff return from Laurence Maroney, the Patriots marched down to the 1-yard line, thanks in large-part to a pass interference penalty by Antonio Pierce on TE Benjamin "time-slot hit" Watson.

Patriots marching on the door on 2nd and goal at the 1-inch line as the quarter comes to a close. Stick around at PHSports for more!

Brady has seen far more turf than many expected him to.
The ankle looks fine though.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Comments from the staff...
Armin: Only 2 possessions? Wow.
Paymon: There's NO way Faulk had that first down.
Clement: You can't trade 3s for 7s with the Patriots.
Peanut Gallery: How about that idiotic NFL-robot finally being 'terminated' by the Terminator. Amazing. AMAZING!

5 Staff Questions for Super Bowl XLII

1) Which duopoly of RBs will play a bigger role: Bradshaw/Jacobs or Faulk/Maroney? [Sum]

2) What will the Patriots' conversion percentage be on 3rd downs where they need 6 or more yards? [Pay]

3) Will Plaxico be the next Joe Namath? [Armin]

4) Will New England attempt to go downfield early and often or be perfectly willing to grind out this game? [Clement]

5) At what point in the game will either team try a gadget/trick play and will it be a game-changer? [Pay]

Be sure to check in throughout the game tonight for quarter-by-quarter analysis from the entire PHSports staff.

Enjoy the game.

Super Bowl XLII: Final Thoughts and Predictions from PHSports’ Football Experts

Vegas says nearly 35% of America has the Giants straight-up victors.
How about the staff writers at PHSports?
Credit: Yahoo!

Armin Mohajeri

A sure thing? This game seems to be a sure thing in many minds. It is in mine. I see the Pats winning this one, barring divine intervention. However, that brings up an interesting point. Is this too easy of a prediction to make? Have the New York Giants been praying to the Football Gods? It seems like they have been all season. Since week 3, the Giants have been riding this emotional high. They are just winning games, and at times they're winning the games ugly. The word destiny comes to mind. The last time I saw something similar to this, I was a sophomore at the University of Arizona, watching a basketball team led by a freshman sensation (Mike Bibby) playing the role of giant-killers all the way to the National Title. How fitting would it be if the New York Giants are the giant-killers in Super Bowl XLII? Alas, reality sets in, and we all know 19-0 is just a day away.

New England wins 41–20
MVP: Tom Brady, QB

Chris Clement

As much as I wish, hope, pray, and African rain-dance that this game would end with a Giants victory or even an under-one possession result, I don’t make it my business to pick against Bill Belichick. Despite three 3-point victories in their previous Super Bowls, this 18-0 team really, really wants perfection. It’s the same reason Randy Moss caught 23 TDs (1 more than Rice), Brady tossed 50 TDs (1 more than Manning), and each and every press conference is somber and downright monotonous. As for Super Bowl XLII, Tom Brady is poised to carve up a shaky Giants secondary, thanks in large part to as rock solid an offensive line since the mid-90 Cowboys or late-70s Steelers. Combining that with several playmakers on both sides of the ball (including on special teams), the Patriots seem just a little too good. Check that, they are too good. While the Giants gave the Pats as good of a game as any in 2007, Super Bowls have a history of turning to the ugly. Fortunately, perfection – whether its achieved or not – will take a much-needed backseat after this Sunday night passes. At least until next September.

New England wins 33–20
MVP: Tom Brady’s Ankle, Ankle

Paymon Hashemi

Going into this Super Bowl, the Patriots can do almost nothing wrong and they have been placed on a pedestal higher than Gisele Bundchen. Meanwhile, the Giants continue to win in the most inconceivable ways imaginable. Can the Giants' pass rush get to Brady? Which team can run the ball with consistency and force the opposing defense to uncharacteristically sub players in and out due to the unseasonable heat causing cramps? Which team will commit the ill-advised personal foul giving a seemingly dead drive new life? All questions considered, in addition to whether Plaxico Burress plays and how much of a factor he is, too many intangibles need to go the Giants way in order for a landmark upset to occur. The Patriots do what they do best and win a Super Bowl by a field goal in a game that's not as close as the score indicates.

New England wins 27-24
MVP: Tom Brady, QB

Sum Mehrnama

This game really shouldn’t require so much hemming and hawing from me. It should be an easy call, right? The Pats have proven how purely awesome they are time-and-time again this season. Plus, this is the year of Bostonian sports, right? Then why am I so incredibly uncertain as to the outcome of this game? Is it because Eli seems less evil to me than Peyton? Or is it because it seems that the confidence the Pats had early on has now seemingly shifted to the Giants? Regardless, this game will come down to which Patriots team shows up. If it’s the team from weeks 1 – 12, then the Pats win big. If it’s the team from the past month or so, then … the Pats win less-big.

New England wins 38 – 27
MVP: Wes Welker, WR

PHSports Simulation Series: Super Bowl XLII (pictures to come soon ...)

by Chris Clement

In a tradition that has gone as far back as…today…we here at PHSports are ready to do away with computer and metric-based simulations and instead focus on something random, yet incredible entertaining.

Super Bowl XLII…three days early.

How does it happen? The power of technology!

Enter an XBOX, the New England Patriots versus the New York Giants, a 26-inch flat-screen television and XBOX’s willingness to update rosters on a seemingly monthly basis.

The difficulty was boosted to All-Madden, attributes were reset to system levels, ditto for rules/preferences/options. We tried to silence Madden as much as we could, but we had no hope.

Even an MVP was named.

Let’s check the highlights…

1st Quarter
The coin toss led to New England receiving the ball. Unfortunately for Giants fans, the score wasn’t tied for long. After a rather ho-hum 27-yard return from Laurence Maroney, the Patriots marched down the field 73 yards in 5 plays. Along the way were two runs from Maroney (tabbing 20 total yards) and 3 straight Tom Brady completions to Randy Moss. The end result was the game’s first score, a 24-yard grab from a wide-open Moss. Where were you Gibril Wilson? The Giants struggled out of the gate on offense, with Hixon’s return only reaching the 15 before a 3-and-out with three incompletions from Eli “Don’t Cal me Peyton’s Little Brother” Manning. Kevin Faulk’s 8-yard punt return gave the Pats the ball inside Giant territory. After 2 short rushes, Brady continued his perfect start with 4 completions (2 to Stallworth and 2 to Welker) before hitting Donte Stallworth on a short slant for a 6-yard touchdown on the last play of the 1st quarter. 14-0 Patriots as Brady was 8-for-8 with 2 TDs. A third Super Bowl MVP Trophy seemed apparent.

2nd Quarter
Lightning nearly struck again for Hixon as he took back the Pats kick…to the 15 yard line. Two rushes from Brandon Jacobs and then a TE waggle to Kevin Boss afforded the Giants 1st and goal at the 2-yard line. Eli snuck it in himself on 1st down to give the Giants their first TD of the game, now trailing 14-7. Somehow, New England ran 3 straight times for only 8 yards and punted. After a fair catch from RW McQuarters, the Giants marched downfield on a 8-play, 54 yard drive resulting in a 24-yard field goal from Lawrence Tynes. The key plays on the drive included a 3 and 2 conversion by Ahmad Bradshaw on a screen pass and a crushing hit from Asante Samuel in the endzone, jarring the ball loose from Amani Toomer on 3rd and Goal. With the score 14-10 and less than 45 seconds remaining in the half, it appeared the Giants had officially made a game of it. Not so fast. Randy Moss took a reverse 33 yards and then caught a 41-yard touchdown with 7 seconds left to give the Patriots a 21-10 halftime lead. Eli could only hand the ball off to Jacobs to run out the clock following a mediocre kickoff return. 21-10 at the half, Randy Moss had officially woken out of his playoff slumber.

3rd Quarter
The game saw its first turnover on the first pass of the second-half, resulting in a pick by Adalius Thomas of Eli Manning (who had targeted Steve Smith in the flat). Thomas rumbled 15 yards down to the 6-yard line before being tackled by Plaxico Burress (who, to this point, had 0 catches). Laurence Maroney needed 2 rushes to piledrive into the endzone. Pats fans celebrated while Tom Coughlin stared blankly from the sidelines at a 28-10 deficit. The Giants struggled to move the ball, but benefited from two pass interference penalties on Randall Gay to allow Tynes to sail through an impressive 45-yard field goal. Eli’s completion percentage had dipped below 45% while Brady had only 3 incompletions in over fifteen attempts to that point. The Patriots weren’t able to score on their second drive of the second half; however, they ran out the clock before pinning the Giants inside their own 10 yard-line. 28-13 after three quarters of play.

4th Quarter
In a play eerily familiar to Donald Driver’s 90-yard NFC Championship Game TD, a Super Bowl record was set on 3rd and 3 from their own 13 when Eli Manning hit Steve Smith for an 87-yard touchdown. Simply burning All-Pro cornerback Asante Samuel and free safety Rodney Harrison, Smith went untouched into the endzone in what was by far the game’s most exciting moment. Tipping the score to 28-20, the Giants were somehow only one-possession away from tying the game. Thoughts of a tie game seemed realistic after a poor kickoff return and two stuffed rushes by the Giant defense. Then, in one of the oddest playcalls I can remember, the Patriots called a rush up the middle on 3rd and 13 against a rather stacked line. With only three minutes remaining, Laurence Maroney shook off a brutal hit 4 yards in the backfield by Fred Robbins and sliced and diced his way to a 58-yard rush. Pushing him over 100 yards and crippling the chances of the Giant offense, Maroney would remain in the game and broke off another big run, this time of 18 yards, placing the ball on the 4 yard line. A play-action bootleg by Brady, never a norm for New England, resulted in Touchdown Tom’s third TD of the day, this one to Benjamin Watson to give the Patriots a 35-20 advantage. The game’s closing minutes saw Plaxico’s first catch (21 yards) and a forced fumble on Eli Manning by Vince Wilfork (also recovered by Wilfork). The Patriots took two kneels after securing one last first-down on a personal foul late hit downfield by Sam Madison on Wes Welker (after a 8-yard reception on 3rd and 15) and Super Bowl XVII was over. Bill Belichick was lifted up by his players and New England enjoyed their fourth Super Bowl trophy in four years, while Giants players, notably Manning/Jacobs/Strahan (he and the entire Giant team was held sackless), held their heads down in remorse. The camera was even shook by the eventual MVP, enjoying his first Super Bowl victory.

Final Score: New England wins 35-20
MVP: Randy Moss [4 receptions, 106 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush, 33 yards]

Scoring Summary
1st Quarter
Patriots: Tom Brady 24-yard pass to Randy Moss for TOUCHDOWN
[5 plays, 73 yards, XP Good.]
New England leas 7-0

Patriots: Tom Brady 6-yard pass to Donte Stallworth for TOUCHDOWN
[6 plays, 49 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 14-0.

2nd Quarter
Giants: Eli Manning 2-yard rush for TOUCHDOWN
[4 plays, 15 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 14-7.

Giants: 24 yard-field goal attempt by Lawrence Tynes is GOOD
[8 plays, 54 yards, FG Good.]
New England leads 14-10.

Patriots: Tom Brady 41-yard pass to Randy Moss for TOUCHDOWN
[4 plays, 76 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 21-10.

3rd Quarter
New England: Laurence Maroney 2 yard rush for TOUCHDOWN
[2 plays, 6 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 28-10.

New York: 45-yard field-goal attempt by Lawrence Tynes is GOOD
[5 plays, 45 yards, 1 penalty]
New England leads 28-13.

4th Quarter
New York: Eli Manning 87-yard pass to Steve Smith for TOUCHDOWN
[3 plays, 93 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 28-20.

New England: Tom Brady 4-yard pass to Benjamin Watson for TOUCHDOWN
[5 plays, 85 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 35-20.

Key Player Statistics
Patriots
Tom Brady: 14-17, 169 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
Laurence Maroney: 16 rushes, 128 yards, TD
Randy Moss: 4 receptions, 106 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush, 33 yards
Donte Stallworth: 2 receptions, 26 yards, TD
Wes Welker: 3 receptions, 27 yards, 2-first downs
Benjamin Watson: 3 receptions, 1 yard, 1 TD
Adalius Thomas: 5 tackles, INT, sack
Vince Wilfork: 2 tackles, 1 sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery
Rodney Harrison: 8.5 tackles, 0 penalties

Giants
Eli Manning: 11-19, 222 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rush TD, 1 lost fumble
Brandon Jacobs: 8 rushes, 38 yards, 1 reception, 10 yards
Plaxico Buress: 1 receptions, 21 yards, 2 drops, 1 tackle
Amani Toomer: 4 receptions, 60 yards
Steve Smith: 4 receptions, 126 yds, TD
Kevin Boss: 1 reception 5 yards, 1 drop
Michael Strahan: 1 tackle, 0 sacks, 0 QB hurries
Antonio Pierce: 11.5 tackles, 2 pass deflections
Lawrence Tynes: 2/2 FGs, 2 XPs, 8 points

PHSports Play of the Game: Steve Smith’s untouched 87-yard touchdown reception.
Art Monk Award: Laurence Maroney
-For carrying the ball with intensity and quiet composure. Rushed for 7 first downs on 16 carries, including drive during which Maroney carried the ball 4 times for 81 yards.
Defining Moment: Maroney’s 54-yard scamper on 3rd and 13 to break open a 28-20 game.

I hope you enjoyed it. I wish the game had been closer, but it was surprisingly fun to watch.

Until next time…

5 Questions for Championship Sunday in the NFL

Who will be hoisting the conference championship trophies today???
Credit: USAToday.com

1) Given the success of AJ Feeley and Kyle Boller against seemingly undaunted New England, can Billy Volek's relative anonymity be a boon to the Chargers should the QB be forced into duty?

2) Will Sunday evening’s NFC title tilt be the coldest game in Playoff history?

3) Will Antonio Cromartie’s presence as a starter in the Chargers secondary, which he wasn’t in Week 2, play a major role in the outcome of the AFC Championship?

4) Will the Giants depleted secondary be able to contain Donald Driver in the flat, Greg Jennings along the sidelines, and the wizardry of the forever-young Brett Favre?

5) Seriously, how many personal fouls are you tabbing Rodney Harrison for?

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Conference Championships

Just when you thought regular season glory was good enough, playoff spreads bite you in the butt. Anyone can go 3-1 picking games straight up, but 1-3 via the spread results in wasting the almighty dollar. Fortunately, less teams equals higher stakes. Not to mention, with the Pats still around, there are higher and higher spreads to tackle.

Let’s roll!

AFC Championship Game:
San Diego @ New England [-14]












Don’t even get me started on how many injuries the NFL’s
dirtiest player, "accidental cheater" Rodney Harrison, might
cause on pile-ups against several of the banged-up Bolts.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Combined, they’re enjoying winning streaks of 25 games (17 for the Pats, 8 for the Bolts). Though, sadly, I’ve come to the all-too-true conclusion that this New England team is completely unbeatable. Yep, even as a die-hard Jet fan and SpyGate preacher, I finally have lost all hope and given in to the supremacy that emanates from Foxboro. In fact, the 2007 edition of the Patriots may end up being the greatest NFL and sports team ever. So, do you think I’m honestly gonna take Phillip Rivers/Billy Volek over Tom Brady? Norv Turner over Bill Belichick? Not a chance, folks. I just can’t bank on this team, even with talent so rich from the likes of Chambers, Merriman, Gates, Cromartie and a guy named LT. Call me a pessimist, depressed, or simply pragmatic, but the point remains: The Chargers don’t stand a chance. They won’t get to Brady nearly enough and won’t make the key plays (i.e. stopping Faulk on the screen, Welker in the flat, Moss deep, Donte on the screen) on defense to allow their own injury-infested offense to keep up. Sorry haters, the Pats do it to us again in blowout fashion as they continue their march to immortality.

NFC Championship Game:
New York @ Green Bay [-7]













Some weather reports have the negatives winning out for the game-time temperatures.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Straight up, you know I’m granting the request of every Giant fan and taking the Packers. As for the spread, perhaps it’s a bit too large despite homefield advantage and the extra week of rest for the Pack. Personally, I am already sick over the media hype of Favre vs. Brady. The Swansong vs. Perfection. A far more fascinating story has taken place the last three weeks concerning the team many “experts” (who me?) pegged for 4th place in the NFC East, the road-warrior Giants. The same team who, after their now wise Week 17 throwdown against those aforementioned unbeatable Pats, just might get another shot at Brady and company in Super Bowl XLII. Clearly, it seems that Eli/Coughlin are a far stronger tandem WITHOUT Tiki "Remember Me?" Barber. Despite all the good mojo coming out of NYC, I’m backing the all-too-feel-good story of Favre, the phenom Ryan Grant’s continuous surge, Greg Jennings’ affinity for the big play and a immensely talented duo of cornerbacks for the outright W. The Pack win and cover, in a less than exciting NFC Championship Game tilt. You’re welcome Giants fans.

We’ll return in a little under two weeks with staff picks on Super Bowl XLII. After a rather strong staff showing for the BCS Title game (not to mention nearly perfect predictions with Colts/Bears in Super Bowl XLI), we look forward to yet another challenge!

Until next time…

Clement’s Weekly Picks and Prognostications…Divisional Round Playoffs

Everything looked more than peachy after Saturday (2-0); however, things took a turn for the worst on Sunday (0-2).

As for this weekend’s predictions, let’s take some time to review some final numbers for the regular season and let’s see if the playoff tide can turn.

Regular Season: 32-15-2
Playoffs: 2-2

…by the way, have you ever seen so many touchdown-plus spreads in a division weekend…

Seattle @ Green Bay [-8]













Over the last 10 weeks, Grant leads the NFC in rushing yards.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

An amazing matchup a few years back, this opening game of the divisional round may prove to be the weekend’s best. While the weather in Lambeau isn’t predicted to be terrible, homefield advantage really means something in this game. While Ryan Grant allows the Pack to be multifaceted on offense, I don’t see this game getting out of hand. I’ll take Seattle to squeeze the spread – even in a loss – but I fear the return of a late Al Harris pick-six may haunt me.

Jacksonville @ New England [-13.5]
















After a week off, will the momentum only increase?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

A playoff spread at nearly two TDs? That’s what happens after 16-0. While they will see 17-0, the Jags should be able to keep this much closer than they did two years ago with Leftwich at the helm. Then again, these are the Patriots. Despite the temptation of a two TD spread, I’m taking the Pats to cruise early and often. No Jacksonville hype here.

San Diego @ Indianapolis [-8.5]












Early reports have Harrison near 100%. Believe the hype?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

We all know Peyton Manning isn’t going to toss 6 INTs, Adam Vinatieri won’t miss a chip-shot FG, the Bolts won’t return 2 punts for TDs and Marvin Harrison/Dallas Clark are active. What else should we learn? Indy is gonna blow this open early in the 4th quarter, especially with a banged-up Antonio Gates giving Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders more freedom than ever.

New York @ Dallas [-7.5]















Who else wants to never hear about Tony & Jessica? Me too!
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Is it that difficult to beat a team three times in one season? It’s been done. And it will be done again. However, this is a tricky spread. I’m predicting an old fashioned 1-possession game. The last game of the weekend may be the one getting the most East Coast love, so I’m all ears.

We will continue our ban on the mockery that is fantasy football during the playoffs.

Championship Weekend looms, I for one can’t wait for my dream scenario:
Green Bay @ Dallas Indianapolis @ New England

However, we all know "dream" scenarios have a way of leaving egg on our faces.

Until next time…

5 Questions Going Into Week 17

As most of us know by now, the New England Patriots made history last night (thanks in large part to a not-so-surprising 23-0 second half run) in the Meadowlands, defeating the New York Giants 38-35 to finish their regular season with a perfect 16-0 mark.















Congratulations...you've officially sickened me with your greatness.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

As for the rest of Week 17...

1. How many snaps will Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison see in tonight's primetime matchup against, currently posessing the AFC 6-seed, the Tennessee Titans?

2. Will returning wideout Terry Glenn be healthy enough to impact BOTH today's matchup in Washington and the playoff picture for the Dallas Cowboys?

3. Statistically speaking:
A) Will A-Pete or Brian Westbrook be able to catch LT's rushing title lead?
B) Will TJ Houshmanzadeh (9 catches) or Reggie Wayne (71 yards) surpass respective NFL-leaders Wes Welker and Randy Moss?
C) Can Jason Witten (8 catches) break the NFL's record for most receptions by a tight end?
D) Who do you have in the race for the most sacks: Patrick Kearney, Mario Williams, Jared Allen or DeMarcus Ware?

4. Is this the last game Donovan McNabb will play in an Eagles uniform?

5. Any chance the Browns "lay on the sword" and further damage the 1st-round pick the aforementioned perfect Patriots inherit from the lowly 49ers?

Clement’s Weekly Picks and Prognostications…Week 17

Blame the holidays, blame the traffic, blame the end of a semester, blame whatever you want. During Week 16, for many of us (not me this season), it was the culmination of a fantasy season and I was MIA.

And not the crappy Sri Lankan-born singer either.

But fear not, as Week 17 offers us two playoff spots in the NFL up for grabs AND 5% of fantasy leagues that – for reasons beyond my understanding – end their seasons in Week 17.

We will be making playoff picks and transitioning into college basketball picks in the coming weeks; however, not even a single mention will be made in accordance with Fantasy NFL Playoff Leagues. Except for that one, of course.

NFL Picks: [28-15-2]
New England @ NY Giants [+14.5]














How many suckers drafted Stallworth before Moss?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Couldn’t the spread be 16? We have heard anything and everything possible about the Pats and this season of greatness (and yes, it’s been beyond great). The real question is will Tom Brady and Randy Moss hook up for two more record-breaking TDs before they sit. 16-0 will be a special moment in the Meadowlands, spread or not, just not for the Patri-haters.

San Francisco @ Cleveland [-10]












Anybody else think he looks like a brother of Will Smith?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

San Fran is blowing a top 5 pick for New England (poor Pats, will they ever catch a break?). Interestingly enough, Cleveland can lose this game and still visit the 3-seed next weekend. Although, it is underreported that if the Titans and Colts freakishly tie, the Browns need to win. Since Romeo Crennel is bound to know this, don’t bet for one second that the Browns won’t deliver a blowout victory in Week 17.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis [+6.5]













Has there ever been a playoff-QB with a worse TD to INT ratio?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

On Sunday night, the Titans will know – just as they do right now - what they need to do to secure the 6-seed in the playoffs: WIN. With that being said, the Colts are likely to sit anyone and everyone possible. While everyone is asking about Marvin Harrison, I want to know how rusty Anthony Gonzalez, Raheem Brock and Robert Mathis might be after a bye week? While the Titans are the riskiest bet east of New Orleans, go with them, albeit hesitantly, to cover.

Dallas @ Washington [-9]


















How many Week 17 Fantasy GMs are starting Glenn?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

I could make things easier and tell you that I believe New Orleans and Minnesota will win, but neither will, which means the ‘Skins could very well already have a wild-card berth locked up before they play. If only the NFL wanted real drama and pegged one of the other two NFC wild-card contenders at 4pm as well. It won’t matter, as the Skins will win. As for covering? Barely. In fact, by a point.

3 Must Starts and Must Sits
START
…Final Week…
Tom Brady: Don’t sit him. The touchdown record means more than he’ll ever admit, even he only plays the 1^st half.
Greg Jones: While Jones-Drew and Taylor are likely to sit in the 2^nd half, Jones will get plenty of muck yardage throughout Week 17.
Kenton Keith: If you were wise and held onto the backup, this is the week to truly enjoy what he can do. While he may not put up Addai-like numbers, he’s the best spoiler the Titans D will face.

SIT
…Final Week…
Terry Glenn: Nobody knows how healthy he is or how much Dallas cares about this game. Not a good idea.
Vince Young: Huh? I just don’t think he’s the right start; especially, with so many other options available this weekend.
Ahmad Bradshaw: It’s tempting for the big play, but the Pats will neither face any injuries nor any chance of not seeing 16-0.

Happy New Years to all. Be safe!

Until next time…

Tuesday FourCast: Week 16

A lot of talk in recent weeks in the FourCast has focused on one key principle: constants.

Whether it be the demise of the Dolphins, the unblemished everything of the Patriots, the resurgence of the Browns (anybody else realize Braylon Edwards has 15 TDs this season?), the unfathomable December the ‘Skins have had, or the unpredictability of the NFL as a whole (anybody else peg Green Bay as 35-7 losers this weekend?).

All we do know now is that five spots in each of the conferences are locked up. In fact, we know the top 5 seeds, in order, in the NFC. Ditto for the two byes in each conference. All that awaits us is who will be visiting Seattle next weekend (Washington is in the driver’s seat with Minnesota and New Orleans hoping for a slip-up next week with Dallas in-town) AND whether the Titans or Browns will be visiting San Diego or Pittsburgh.

The only thing more coveted this holiday season than a Wii,
may be the 6th playoff spot in each conference.
Credit: Nintendo.com

1. Backing into the Playoffs
All of next week will be about one key question: “How much will you play your starters in Week 17?” This question will be asked primarily to the following:

A] New England & NY Giants [15-0 vs. an inconsistent Eli and banged up Plexico]
B] Indianapolis & Dallas [Playing two teams sitting in the 6-seed.]
C] Pittsburgh & San Diego [How important is the 3-seed in the AFC?]

Of course, the main question on my mind has to be, “When will media pundits realize that certain teams need to rest players (i.e. Plaxico Burress), while others need players to keep improving (i.e. Philip Rivers) and others just need all the time they can get (i.e. Terry Glenn)?” There’s never a clear-cut answer to any question in sports, specifically any relating to Week 17.

2. A-Pete is UP, A-Pete is DOWN
Anybody else notice how sure-thing Rookie of the Year RB Adrian Peterson, especially following his injury, seems to either go for 27 yards or 277 on Sundays? While the carries are split with Chester Taylor, it still goes to show that even with a dominant line and a ton of talent, what can really put you into a box is the fact that your opponent’s have zero respect for your QB, wideouts and “passing game”. Memo to the Vikings: snap up as good a tight end, with speed over size to give whomever your QB may be a reliable target over the middle (see Jason Witten’s impact on Tony Romo). In case you’re worried, you can tab plenty of talent at the position in either in the first 2 rounds of the draft (i.e. Chris Cooley) or via free agency (Desmond Clark).

3. MVP…for Moss???
While the award seems signed, sealed, and delivered to Tom Brady, I wonder how the voting for #2 will go down? Randy Moss? Tony Romo? Brett Favre? Peyton Manning? While Brady may see 50 TDs before the end of the 1^st half in the Meadowlands, don’t be surprised if Moss has an equally impressive 23 touchdown receptions. But before you go too gaga (and you should), remember the record he’s breaking: Jerry Rice’s 22-TD season in 1987. What’s the big deal about that record from the former Dancing with the Stars runner-up? Well, besides the eye-dropping number itself back in 1987, realize that the “San Francisco Treat” did it in 12 games. Yep, 12 games.

4. Resurrection
How ironic is it that the two most dangerous teams entering the playoffs could involve the last two noteworthy Redskins coaches? We, of course, know all about the return of Joe Gibbs and the return of the ‘Skins under Todd Collins of all QBs. After their highly impressive win in Minnesota, the ‘Skins face a road they may just be able to travel. Winning at Seattle, at Dallas, and at Green Bay isn’t illogical. That is, especially, if they can overcome turnovers,. Not to mention, if TO isn’t 100% and Green Bay isn’t submerged in ice in late-January. Nevertheless, do not doubt for one second that Dallas will be playing harder than normal to avoid being aligned in such a fate. As for the other Redskins coach in question, I wouldn’t be exactly thrilled playing a team with LT, Antonio Gates, Shawne Merriman and second-year phenom CB Antonio Cromartie. Of course, they do have the mixed bag who is that Philip Rivers guy.

The entire staff at PHSports.com would like to wish all of our loyal readers and visitors a Merry Christmas and a safe holiday season!

Picks will return this Friday...alongside Week 17 fantasy-analysis.

Clement’s Weekly Picks and Prognostications…Week 15

I must admit I was a little downtrodden this weekend, largely in part due to the absence of college football. While the games don’t get me as excited as they once did, I missed the picks - especially, the correct ones.

However, professional football has begun its playoff push. We had a basic playoff elimination game last Thursday (Chicago losing to Washington) and plenty others.

In fact, several division champions (Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks) were crowned and a wild-card spot was essentially clinched in the NFC and AFC (Giants and Jaguars).

You can also reasonably pencil in Tampa Bay in the NFC South, Indy as champs of the AFC South, and then, it gets interesting.

Did You …
-Believe Trent Edwards would be making a playoff push for a wild-card spot?
-Ditto for Tarvaris Jackson?
-Ever believe we could see 16-0 and 0-16 in the same season?
-Have a QB toss 45 TDs and come 4th in MVP voting (Tony Romo)?
-See LT deface a teammate mere hours before a 60 Minutes special promoting him as a class act?
-Envision Derek Anderson and the Browns making a realistic push for 11-5?

Whether you did or didn’t, it’s predictions time!

NFL Picks: [26-14-2]
Buffalo @ Cleveland [-5.5]

















Credit: Yahoo! Sports

At 7-6 and 8-5 respectively, both squads are neck-deep in the thick of the wild-card race. The Browns may have more to win, but the Bills obviously have more to lose. With an important tie-breaker possibly coming in hand for the victor, I always look to two things -- momentum and the location. While Buffalo is sizzling, the Browns will be at home and their big offense will easily outscore the Bills.

Washington @ NY Giants [-4.5]














Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Clinging to their playoff lives, the Skins walked away last Thursday with a hard-fought victory and a 10-day lay-off in between games. The Giants walked away with a W (which may have been more an Eagle loss); yet effectively clinched a wild-card spot. Likely the five seed, the Giants will have plenty to play for in the upcoming weeks. However, I don’t expect the Giants to cover this spread, even at home.

Arizona @ New Orleans [-3]














Credit: Yahoo! Sports

While the NFC South is likely the possession of the Buccaneers, both of these squads are fighting for their playoff lives this weekend on Bourbon Street. As inconsistent as any pair of teams, the Saints offense needs to score first while the Cardinals need their big-play wideouts to remain healthy this weekend. I’ll get bit again likely, but the ‘Aints are the pick this weekend.

3 Must Starts and Must Sits
START
…Last Week…
Lee Evans: Betting against the Dolphins is the second safest bet all year.
Sidney Rice: Not so much…
Reggie Bush: His replacement Aaron Stecker was a decent last-second plug.

…This Week…
Plaxico Burress: Injuries or not, he’s too lethal a target.
Aaron Stecker: Speaking of him…
Anthony Gonzalez: Manning knows he’ll need this guy down the stretch, healthy Harrison or not.

SIT
…Last Week…
Reggie Williams: Strike one.
Warrick Dunn: Foul ball. Strike two.
Texans QBs: Strike three…I’m out.

…This Week…
Todd Collins: There are a lot of QB issues out there, but don’t start him (even in a 2QB league).
Jerry Porter: Not even in a flex position would I start him this week.
Chris Henry: Another flex guy who isn’t worth the risk this season.

Until next time…

Greatest of All-Time???

There’s no denying it. The New England Patriots are an elite football team. Win or lose this weekend to the Colts, they’re still one of the most talented NFL squads we’ve seen in years.

But let’s not drink the Kool-Aid of Cris Collinsworth, Peter King, Tony Kornheiser and plenty of other reputable sports writers. This isn’t potentially the Greatest Team Ever. Not yet. It’s irresponsible and way too easy - salary cap age or not - to make such bold assumptions.

Instead, let’s take a deep breath and remember that there was an NFL before the recent run of Belichick, Brady, Vrabel and now, the likes of Randy Moss.

In fact, there was a team a little less than a baker’s dozen worth of years ago that I would take to defeat (Yes, defeat) the New England Patriots. By double digits.

I’m not going to jump in my time machine and summon the ‘70s Steelers, late ‘80s Niners, or even ask Red Grange to try and break a tackle from Vince Wilfork. No predictions necessary from Joe Namath either.

Instead, I’m rewinding back to 1994. Hopefully, the majority of these names still resonate for true NFL fans. Sadly, most current fans may remember Jerry Rice more as an Oakland Raider.

::Shudder::

Would Young's footwork be the key to finding receivers downfield?
Credit: Mickey Pfleger

1994 San Francisco 49ers vs. 2007 New England Patriots

While the Patriots legacy in 2007 is far from complete, the ’94 Niners are carved in granite. Perhaps most memorably, they prevented the Dallas Cowboys from putting together a league-record 3^rd straight Super Bowl victory. Denver, with Jake Plummer, did the same to New England, and that was in the divisional round, not in the Conference Championship in 2005.

If you think the Indy/New England rivalry is fun, you missed out when the real “Super Bowl” occurred whenever the Cowboys and 49ers met up in the NFC Championship Game. The teams won 4 Super Bowls in 4 years from ‘92 to ‘95.

And there was more than just kickers switching teams. Guys like Ken Norton Jr., Charles Haley, Kevin Gogan, and Deion “Primetime” Sanders switched between teams throughout the years.

It seems lately all the talk is about the unstoppable force known as “Touchdown” Tom Brady and the New England offense.

You want numbers? San Francisco scored a league high 505 points and allowed the 6^th fewest at 296. They went 13-3, were division champs and reeled off 10 straight victories from Weeks 6 to 16. That included hosting and defeating the Cowboys, the two-time defending champions mind you, 21-14, at mid-season. They won games with scores like 40-8, 44-14, 50-14, 42-19 and 38-15. Backup QB Elvis Grbac saw at least one snap in 12 games. He had a QB rating of 98.2 Steve Young started all 16 games.

They’d decimate the Bears, 44-15 in the divisional round of the playoffs and then defeat Dallas 38-28 to go to their fifth Super Bowl. That ’94 Dallas team was good enough as well to take out these 2007 Patriots.

You want players? Here’s the list of Pro Bowlers (10 in total) from that team: FS Merton Hanks, TE Brent Jones, SS Tim McDonald, OL Bart Oates, OL Jesse Sapolu, DT Dana Stubblefield, RB Ricky Watters. Oh yeah, they also had a Hall of Fame QB named Steve Young (MVP in 1994, 35 TDs to 10 INTs) and two future Hall of Famers named Jerry Rice (111 receptions, 1500 yds, 13 TDs) and Deion Sanders (Defensive Player of the Year in 1994).

You’d also find names like Eric Davis, Rickey Jackson, William Floyd, John Taylor, Harris Barton, Charles Mann, Bryant Young, Lee Woodall, Ken Norton Jr., Richard Dent and Gary Plummer on their roster. Kevin Greene wasn’t bashing heads into helmets yet.

We all know about the talent in New England this season and specifically, the trio of Moss (11 TDs in 8 games), Stallworth (15.8 yds/catch), and Welker (35 catches for a 1st down). Yet, the 49ers had the secondary and the team speed to keep up with Moss deep (Deion, who took back 3 INTs for TDs that season, in ’94 was as good as any corner as every been) and Welker in the flat (Eric Davis and Merton Hanks suffocated wideouts with speed and hard hitting). Their rush D was stout with a young Stubblefield and Young on the interior and incredible depth, matching savvy veterans and up-and-coming talent. Dallas had 3 Pro Bowl lineman that year, and Troy Aikman was planted early and often in the NFC Title game. On the defensive side, their attitude was as brash as they came, mainly thanks to Primetime. However, Lee Woodall was coming into his own alongside veterans Norton and Plummer. It was a superior trio of linebackers.

Asante Samuel is a rock-solid cover corner. But will I take him against Jerry Rice in his prime? That’s a definitive…nope! Steve Young is far more elusive than the majority of today’s stone-footed quarterbacks. He’s also as tough as they come. Brent Jones also stretched the field far more effectively than 95% of this era’s tight ends.

Tom Brady is often mentioned as the reincarnation of Joe Montana. While that may be true, Steve Young replaced Montana. And honestly, the drop-off wasn’t that substantial. Ironically, Montana handed those ’94 Niners one of their 3 losses, one of which also occurred in Week 17 after locking up homefield.

And finally, the coach. Can you name him? Nope, not Bill Wash. It was George Seifiert. As underrated as they come, he won’t back down from the scowl or frowns of Belichick. He had to replace Walsh in San Francisco. He lined up across the talented personas and schematics of Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer. Not to mention, here are the coordinators Siefert had in 1994. We’re talking Andy Reid, John Gruden, and a slew of today’s top coaches. The West Coast offense was born and perfected down by the bay.

So while the 2007 Patriots are, to borrow from Charles Barkley a “fantastic” team, I’d take the 1994 49ers.

Oh yeah, did I mention they waxed the Chargers 49-26 in the Super Bowl?

Here’s the box score to the ’94 Niners versus the ’07 Patriots…

1st Quarter
74 yard TD [Young to Rice]
Brien made PAT
7-0

35 yard TD [Brady to Moss]
Gostkowski made PAT
7-7

23 yard TD [Young to Watters]
Brien made PAT
14-7

2nd Quarter
38 yard FG [Gostkowski]
14-10

7 yard TD [Watters rush]
Brien made PAT
21-10

19 yard TD [Brady to Welker]
Gostkowski made PAT
21-17

HALFTIME SCORE: 21-17 49ers lead
3^rd Quarter
31 yard FG [Gostowski]
21-20

45 yard TD [Young to Rice]
Brien made PAT
28-20

17 yard TD [Brady to Watson]
Gostowski made PAT
28-27

4^th Quarter
35 yard FG [Brien]
31-27

65 yard INT Return TD [Deion Sanders off of Tom Brady]
Brien made PAT
38-27

Final Score:
San Francisco 38
New England 27
MVP: Deion Sanders [3 arm tackles, 2 INTs, 1 TD]

Until next time…