Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 3

Back again with your weekly check-up!!!
Now bend over and cough...

NFL Picks: 4-5 [The horrid call in the Chargers/Broncos game pushes me under .500.]
Upset Specials: 1-1 [Of course it was easy to pick against the Bungles, but I told you to double-up and cash in. Boo ya!]

...all spreads are courtesy of Yahoo! Sports…

Dallas @ Green Bay (+3)
Starting off with a road dog? You know it! Dallas needed to pull out that victory last weekend to hold serve at home. While Rodgers has looked better than Romo, Barber III will be begging for the ball and the injury to Charles Woodson could be a problem. Dallas wins, even if it’s by a push.

Carolina @ Minnesota (-3 ½)
Note: Here is my rough draft on Tuesday of this pick. I stand by it more than ever. Especially since I’ve been saying it for MONTHS. Yes, months.
Another road dog? Nope. Minnesota can’t face 3-0, even though Detroit would always be worse in the NFC North. Tarvaris Jackson might lose this job if he starts off too poorly (yes, even to Frerotte). A Pete should run wild in the dome again and even though Steve Smith is back, the Panthers will struggle mightily to run the ball against the Vikes front 7. Vikes win, barely.

New Orleans @ Denver (-5.5)
New Orleans has a terrible secondary. Enter Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler, and the NFL (and fantasy’s) highest-profile offense to date. Things won’t stop in Mile High. Broncos roll as the Saints start to creep back into ‘Aint form.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-2)
Cleveland needs it too much; despite how rested B-More is. Joe Flacco can manage a game, but the aging Raven D and a still hobbled-McGahee won’t be enough to overcome the stench of road desperation from the Browns.

Upset Special #1
Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia (+3)
Sorry Pay, I’m picking the Stillers. Gut shot: Pay is too, I bet. Both teams went primetime, yet looked quite different. The Steelers are now my AFC frontrunners, largely because I think this team is built to perform on the road. Yes, even in it’s home state.

Upset Special #2
NY Jets @ San Diego (-9)
I’m not supposed to pick Jet games. Screw it. San Diego will win; however, 9 points is just too many to leave out there. Even with the vanilla offense the Jets are mired in through 2 weeks.


3 Must Starts and Must Sits

START

…Last Week…
LJ sucks, Alge Crumpler was useless beyond belief, and Patrick Crayton was invisible despite his team scoring 41 points. I reached and I SUCKED.

…This Week…
Justin Gage loves Kerry Collins and vice-versa, Darren Sproles is gonna put up a Kevin Faulk-type performance on Monday Night (with better fantasy points too!), and Issac Bruce is a fun spot-start here. ***Bonus Pick*** Tennessee’s D is gonna vault them to 3-0 with a defensive TD (or two!).

SIT

…Last Week…
Devrey Henderson wasn’t a factor at any point, LJ Smith remains an enigma, and Pierre Thomas had a TD and nothing else. He was mediocre in TD-only leagues at best as a start. 3 for 3 redeems a horrific begin to fantasy advice this week (aka “Start").

…This Week…
DeSean Jackson won’t go 3 straight weeks for 100 yards (he won’t even break 50), Larry Johnson is done, baby, done, and Mark Clayton is never a sleeper wideout. No Raven ever is.

Think you can do better?
You’re probably right.

Until next week…

Tuesday FourCast: Week 2

Pay did a near perfect job with the season debut of the FourCast last week, so it’s only fair I take away all of that positive mojo and momentum.

As if you didn’t hear enough from me this weekend.

#1. Reality Check for Several Teams

So who’s 0-2? Miami, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Detroit, and St. Louis had to expect to fall onto tough times this season. However, there are a few “other” teams who couldn’t have anticipated such a start, brutal schedule or not. Cleveland had playoff hopes; instead, they’ve been non-competitive AT HOME against Dallas and Pittsburgh. San Diego, screwed in their last game, has lost in the closing moments in each game. Minnesota still has Tarvaris-issues and choked away a 15-point second half lead against Indy AT HOME. Meanwhile, everyone on the roster in Seattle appears primed for the IR and Jacksonville is turning over the ball far too much not to be 0-2. Scary times indeed for several of the playoff-predicted.

#2. It’s not Brady or Belichick: It’s Both

As a Jet fan, I knew exactly what was going to happen Sunday. As always, the Jets would play New England tough, but not nearly tough enough. We’d (when you suffer like us, you get to say WE) be given a chance or two to make that stop or score that TD. But we didn’t. Is it because of us? Partially. Far more of it has to do though with who gameplans against us. The focus of the past week spent far too much time debating whether Belicheat could win without Brady. Of course he can. Instead of being in Cleveland, he’s surrounded in Foxboro by Pro Bowl talent, incredible veteran leadership (but not from Moss, mind you), and a couple dozen guys with more than a couple Super Bowl rings already. Instead of simply writing off the Pats (or believing they’ll be just fine without Brady), I continue to tell everyone to allow a few weeks to settle and see how the Pats compete against the real meat of their schedule. Not the Jets and their aging QB.

#3. Don’t Believe the Hype…because it MIGHT be True

Last week Pay wisely warned us about a few younger QBs in the NFL. One of them, you need not worry: Aaron Rodgers. While there’s likely to be a few growing pains and his health has never proven to be anything less than satisfactory, Rodgers has fantastic ability and the perfect motivation. Brett Favre is still playing. If Favre had retired, it’s likely Rodgers might’ve relaxed in the shadow of Favre. Instead, he’s trying to put Favre and his legacy in the rear seat immediately. Is it likely to happen? Who knows? What I do know is that Rodgers, whose mechanics look flawless yesterday compared to those at the combine three-plus years ago, looks light years ahead of the draft disgust that plagued him during late-March and early-April in 2005. Remember this folks. Rodgers was drafted 23 spots BEHIND #1 overall selection Alex Smith. Whoops.

#4. Tragedy in the Heartland
I’m not going to go Berman on the horrific situation. Instead, I’m going to ask for you all to do things:
1) Educate yourself on what’s going on.
2) Consider giving whatever you can.

This is far bigger than the NFL or fantasy football. Even if it’s hard to sometimes remember that, sadly.

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 1

If you're in a haze from the plethora of football posts you've seen here as of late...check out Pay's latest work (posted yesterday).

Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

Well look who’s back!

I’d love to pretend you’ve missed these weekly NFL picks and fantasy “insights”; however, I’m far from that gullible.

Instead of buttering you up to start of this first-of-the-season post, I’m getting down to the nitty gritty just as quickly as I can.

Take that 5,000 word posts!

Only the late, great Hunter S. Thompson can ramble like ME!

Credit: Sam Seder Show

NFL Picks: [0-0-0] Wipe the slate clean!!!
…all spreads are courtesy of Yahoo! Sports...

Seattle @ Buffalo (-1)
If this game were in Seattle, I gotta think the spread might be up to 5.5 in their favor. While Buffalo has a healthy Marshawn Lynch and has tried to revamp the lines, Seattle’s offense seems a total unknown with Julius Jones and Nate Burleson the only skill players I recognize right now. Even so, this will be a big road win for the NFC and one of its favorites, the Hawks.

Dallas @ Cleveland (+5.5)
I don’t buy Cleveland winning a weak NFC North. I do buy Dallas winning their first playoff game in forever (96?) and then LOSING before the Super Bowl again. Maybe I’m getting a little ahead of myself though. Dallas covers this...easier than you think. I hope K2 doesn’t break his leg like he did in their last meeting.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3)
Normally most “experts” don’t touch tricky divisional openers with a pesky spread. Not me! I’m calling a PUSH (lame!), which means the ‘Aints win a pivotal Week 1 divisional game behind the leg of their kicker (whomever that is).

Saints fans are all but desperate for Bush to return to his high-flying antics of his rookie season.

Credit:NFL.com

Carolina @ San Diego (-9)
A certain staff writer loves him some Panthers, although I gotta believe he had this as one of their four losses. I’m on board too (at least on that accord); however, don’t forget how effective a healthy Jake Delhomme can be. Whoops, Steve Smith is still suspended. Chargers in a romp, in what might be Merriman’s only game of 2008.

***Upset Special***
Minnesota @ Green Bay (-2.5)
While I highly doubt Tarvaris Jackson cares the Vikes wanted Favre on their side for this matchup, I do favor the Cheeseheads in this emotional opener, I think. In the end, after flipping a coin and losing it somewhere on my office floor, I’m deciding to stick by the team with a healthy Adrian Peterson (but for how long Pay?). Take the Vikes outright for the MNF upset. Oh yeah, avoid the other MNF stinker too.


3 Must Starts and Must Sits

…START…
1) Donte Stallworth burned the Big D secondary last season up the middle for a big-time TD…and he’ll do it again this season (albeit in a different uniform). Betting against Cowboys FS Roy Williams is a wise move in fantasy football.
2) Dwayne Bowe might pile up 100+-garbage yards or more when his team is down forty to the Patsies, especially sans Assante Samuel this season.
3) Matt Ryan might not be the worst start in a 2 starting-QB league (who doesn’t do this yet?). The rookie played in a smart system at BC and has the right type of opponent for me to smell a potential “ugly” shootout.

Ummmm...yeah.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

…SIT…

1) Larry Johnson is too high of a pick for most to risk sitting (even against the Patriots). As for his counterpart Laurence Maroney, search for better options. Brady wants to prove that (whichever) foot is just fine and Belicheat knows how lethal Touchdown Tom is inside the 10…or anywhere for that matter.
2) I’m not buying the pre-season hype for Calvin Johnson to supplant Roy Williams in Detroit as their go-to-guy. I foresee a quiet afternoon for CJ. TD-less for sure. Prove me wrong Calvin.
3) Owen Daniels and Tony Scheffler are flash in the pan picks in fantasy at tight end. I don’t like either of them until they start producing more often than once every 6 weeks.

2 Guys to WATCH Intently

Kevin Smith may be the new (RB) man in Detroit…for now; yet, I’m wondering if Coach Marinelli might become a little too infatuated with (the slow and rusted) recently acquired Rudi Johnson. While Detroit is unlikely to make any significant noise in the standings, it’s two backs (sorry Tatum) may have a fantasy word or two worth checking in on early on.

Introducing...the Tatum Bell collection.

Credit: Travel Now

Trying to be as productive as possible…so I cut out all the useless jibber-jabber.
Well, some of it.
You happy?

Enjoy opening weekend, NFL and fantasy-wise.

Hopefully neither of your teams are out of it after this week.
(Gulp)

Until next time…

2008 Season NFL Predictions

Last year I began what I hoped would become an annual tradition. Making my NFL regular season and playoff predictions by going through and picking a winner in each of the 256 games played during the regular season. Following that, I determine which teams make the playoffs by handling all tie-breakers according to NFL rules. And unlike many other "professional" sports writers, I held myself accountable before the next season, taking myself to task when I f'd up, and patting myself on the back for the few correct things (like picking the Chiefs to go 4-12).

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2008-2009 NFL Season, berate them as you must:

NFC
NFC East *Dallas 13-3 **Philadelphia 10-6 NY Giants 8-8 Washington 6-10 Dallas is clearly the class of this division. The high powered offense plus the mean defense means another dominant season for Jerry Jones’ squad. Meanwhile, the Iggles should be back behind D-McNabb and Westbrook. The Giants defense is too banged up to be able to drag the offense into the playoffs again. And the Redskins will have growing pains under first year coach Jim Zorn.	NFC North *Minnesota 12-4 Green Bay 8-8 Chicago 5-11 Detroit 4-12 Minnesota should do very well this season, despite having Tarvaris Jackson at the helm. But if he plays the “Trent Dilfer” role, then the Vikes will be atop the Norris division again. Green Bay will perform decently as Aaron Rodgers gets used to leading the team, but they’ll be better next year. Chicago is slightly less abysmal with Orton at QB. Detroit … well, Matt Millen will somehow avoid being fired.
NFC South *Carolina 11-5 **New Orleans 10-6 Tampa Bay 7-9 Atlanta 4-12 Carolina will work out some early season kinks and Delhomme will find his touch just in time to guide the Panthers well. The Saints will also be back in the mix of things with their high-powered offense and average defense. Tampa will try a few different QBs and stumble their way through a sub-par season. Atlanta may finish with the same record as last year, but they’ll be a stronger team as Matt Ryan gets his NFL education.	NFC West *Seattle 12-4 San Francisco 6-10 Arizona 6-10 St. Louis 5-11 A piss poor division to say the least. Seattle is a solid team surrounded by mediocrity. The Hawks will follow their defense and a running back by committee routine to the top of the division. San Fran will have a steady hand in J.T. O’Sullivan, but will have enough troubles to avoid achieving success. The Cardinals are still mired in their QB controversy, and I don’t see it going away. The Rams … well, they need an overhaul at WR and QB.
Tie breaker note: MIN gets the 2-seed due to a better in-conference record than SEA; NO gets the 5-seed by virtue of a better won-lost-tied percentage than PHI in common games.
AFC
AFC East *New England 13-3 NY Jets 9-7 Buffalo 5-11 Miami 5-11 The Pats will not finish undefeated again, an aging defense will stop that from happening. However, they’re still atop the AFC and will dominate the East. The Jets will bounce back from the garbage they fed their fans last year, but the vanilla offense led by Favre will be figured out by teams as the season goes on. Buffalo and Miami are both better than their records suggest, but each still has some bugs to work out before they can crack an 8-8 season.	AFC North *Pittsburgh 10-6 Cleveland 8-8 Cincinnati 5-11 Baltimore 4-12 Pittsburgh wins this division, almost by default. Even with a diminished offensive line, they should win out here. Cleveland isn’t as bad as their 8-8 finish, but they won’t be in contention for the playoffs this year. Anderson’s magical ride will start to turn sour and we’ll see the rise of Brady Quinn. Cincy may or may not have Chad Ocho Cinco, depending on his torn labrum, but even with him, the defense is too weak to have much success in the AFC. The Ravens are too green on the offense and too old on the defense.
AFC South *Indianapolis 12-4 **Jacksonville 11-5 Tennessee 9-7 Houston 7-9 The Colts have a nice strangle-hold on the South … even though they’re in the Midwest. Peyton has plenty of targets, and he’ll make use of all of them. The Jaguars like what they have on the offense, and Matt Jones may finally emerge as a solid receiver. The Titans need Vince Young to learn to throw the ball before they become a truly serious threat. Houston will need to solve its running back quartet before they can truly expect to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.	AFC West *San Diego 13-3 **Denver 11-5 Oakland 4-12 Kansas City 3-13 Norv Turner may just have a heart attack. Poor guy isn’t used to this success thing, but when L.T. leads your team, it’s hard not to find it. I expect Denver to have a solid season with Jay Cutler having his diabetes under control and finding rhythm with both Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Oakland’s record is tied to the health of Darren McFadden and the use of outlet receivers by JaMarcus Russell. Kansas City is just bad. Barring a return to glory by L.J., they’ll be worse than last year.
Tie breaker note: NE gets the 1 seed by virtue of a head-to-head win over SD. JAC gets the 5-seed due to a head-to-head win over DEN.

Wildcard Playoffs (winner in Italics)

Philadelphia at Seattle – Seattle has had an awesome home advantage in the playoffs in recent history. That continues against the more talented Philly team.

New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina let the Saints win the regular season finale since that really wouldn’t affect their playoff stance. However, the real Carolina team shows up this time.

Denver at Indianapolis – Cutler performs remarkably throughout the season, and gives Peyton a run for his money in this match-up. Ultimately, however, the Colts are a far more complete team than the Broncos.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – Garrard and MoJoDro lead the way as the Steelers don’t even put up a real fight.

Divisional Playoffs

Carolina at Dallas – Another year, another playoff disappointment for Tony Romo. Marion Barber, III plays his heart out, but in the end it’ll be the two-headed rushing attack of Carolina that’ll leave T.O. in tears again.

Seattle at Minnesota – Seattle’s defensive line will put way too much pressure on Tarvaris Jackson to allow the mediocre QB to do anything other than hand the ball off. The lack of a passing game will be enough to allow Seattle to squeak by the Vikes.

Jacksonville at New England – Wow. This AFC Divisional round looks kinda similar, no? The result of this portion will look similar as well, with Tom Brady looking picture perfect in a nail-biter against the talented Jags.

Indianapolis at San Diego – This half of the AFC Divisional round, however, won’t be a repeat. Indy romps the Bolts in San Diego, setting up football’s equivalent of Nadal vs. Federer in the AFC Championship game.

Conference Finals

Seattle at Carolina – The Panthers return to the Super Bowl, this time following the lead of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Delhomme likes having more than one option at WR, and guides his team past a stingy Seattle defense.

Indianapolis at New England – Tom Brady has one thing on his mind … another Super Bowl ring. Joe Cool, Jr. is up to the task and directs his less talented team to a nice victory in the frigid Massachusetts weather.

Super Bowl

Carolina vs. New England – I don’t like predicting repeats of recent Super Bowls (especially if there’s no chance of a repeated wardrobe malfunction), but I guess I’m really high on the Panthers this season. On paper, the Panthers should win this one with their strong offense against the aging Pats defense. But that won’t happen. New England makes up for it’s crappy play in the last Super Bowl and wins this one 24-20.