InClement Weather: Fantasy Football Speak [Part I of III]

Most of us, who would write for or read this blog, are fantasy football "players". In fact, many of us have been at it for over a decade now (some even longer). On top of that, many of us have multiple leagues we interact with yearly.

With that in mind, I'm going to serve up a series of 3 posts this upcoming week. Some might be surprised to hear that, as I'm leaving for Las Vegas to get married Monday and enjoy a week-long honeymoon in the City of Sin.

Don't worry, it won't be one of "those" Las Vegas trips.
Credit: ThisRecording.com

Don't worry, I've already written all three posts and will sneak the other two in at later dates, in-between Armin's finishing touches on the SWOTs (is that correct?).

First up, let's look at some basics of the league (commonly known as NOVA Fantasy Football).
Since it's near impossible to find a magazine or reputable website which has mock drafts with 2 starting quarterback parameters, this is a rare treat. So enjoy it!!!

Basics
A) 10-teams.
B) 18-round ladder draft. [Ex: 1 to 10, 10 to 1, 1 to 10, 10 to 1, and so on.]
C) Starters include 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, & 1 DEF. 8 reserve sports.

Draft
D) Max of 1 1/2 mins/pick for the first 5 rounds, max of 1 min/pick for rounds 6 through 11, and max of 45 seconds (that's right!) for rounds 12 through 18.
Note: No keepers or holdovers either. Not in this league, at least.

2-Starting QB Rules
E) If a backup becomes a starter and you have 4 starting QBs, you must drop/trade one w/i 24 hours.
F) If you have 3 starters on your roster, you may NOT pick up a 4th starter with the intention of working a trade. Picking up a starting QB when you already have 3 can only be done if you are dropping one of your 3 current starters.
G) This also works for defenses and kickers. Yes, we once had an owner with 3 kickers, potentially tabbing another. Lowball, but savvy.

Draft Lottery Bonuses
H) Separate pick'em and survivor leagues give each winner an extra ping pong ball (which I literally draw 5 minutes before the draft).

Enough talk, let's look at the first three rounds (with a few brief observations):

He might not have gotten the Madden cover, but Peterson was an easy selection for #1 overall.
Credit: DeviantArt.com

Round #1:
1) Adrian Peterson
2) Tom Brady
3) DeAngelo Williams
4) LaDanian Tomlinson
5) Drew Brees
6) Matt Forte
7) Michael Turner
8) Maurice Jones-Drew
9) Peyton Manning
10) Steven Jackson

Comments: A-Pete was a lock for #1 (despite a near-trade between slots #1 and #2), Brady was taken #2 by the same owner (Pay) last year, Williams surprised a few at #3, I've never owned LT so took the risk for the potential reward at #4, Brees at #5 proves the value of QBs in 2-starting QB leagues, Forte seemed perfect for the 6-slot, Turner slid a bit to 7 (more than a few question his reaction to a season of 350+ carries), MJD has been ranked top 3 on a ton of sites (Yahoo! especially), Manning goes to a familiar owner, and Action Jackson is someone I was afraid to even mention.

How many of you had Matt Ryan going in the second round? One of our league members did. Surprised?
Credit: Madden-School.com

Round #2:
1) Matt Ryan
2) Chris Johnson
3) Aaron Rogers
4) Brian Westbrook
5) Phillip Rivers
6) Frank Gore
7) Brandon Jacobs
8) Larry Fitzgerald
9) Randy Moss
10) Kurt Warner

Comments: Ryan at #11 overall was shocking (it was a huge Falcons fan), CJ at #12 was a fallback after Jackson went already, Rogers before Rivers might be due to it being a Packers fan, Westbrook at #14 depends on that ankle, Rivers at #15 was the second-half fantasy MVP last season, Gore quietly went under the radar (again), Jacobs returns to a happy owner (me!), Fitzgerald last longer than expected and is the first wideout taken, Moss follows at #19 to combo with Tom Brady (uh oh), and Kurt Warner is drafted at least 100 spots (or more) earlier this year.

Two Texans went in Round 3. I suppose this mock-cover ruins the surprise on one of them. But can YOU name the other? Can YOU!?!?
Credit: PhotoBucket.com

Round #3:
1) Greg Jennings
2) Marion Barber
3) Steve Slaton
4) Tony Romo
5) Clinton Portis
6) Donovan McNabb
7) Carson Palmer
8) Ronnie Brown
9) Andre Johnson
10) Calvin Johnson

Comments: Jennings is the 3rd overall receiver taken (surprising?), Barber in the 3rd round surprised many, Slaton has incredible upside at #23, Romo was a borderline grab over McNabb, Portis returns to a Redskin owner (Goings), McNabb is one of the last rock solid QBs left, Palmer may be the ultimate "make or break" QB this fantasy season, Ronnie Brown is in a contract year and the Wildcat offense is intriguing to say the least, Andre Johnson at #29 almost seems criminal, and #30 is Calvin Johnson (who is a Lion, but an absolute beast nonetheless).

So there you have it. Feel free to post some comments of your own.

Next post I'll be taking a look at 10 make-or-break middle round selections (one per team) who may have a lot to say with fantasy success or suckitude.
After that, I'll finish up the series with 10 surprising drops for players. This means I'll target 10 guys who I expected to go much earlier than they did. Much much earlier in some cases.

Until then...

2008 NFL Rookie Year End Report

January is here again, and like last year, we present you with the PHSports Rookie Year End Report. This also signals our shift to the 2009 NFL draft. Look for our Mock Drafts that will be coming soon.


Top 10 Offensive Rookies:

Matt Ryan (courtesy of emqb)

1. Matt Ryan, QB – Atlanta Falcons
2. Joe Flacco, QB – Baltimore Ravens
3. (tie) Matt Forte, RB – Chicago Bears
3. (tie) Chris Johnson, RB – Tennessee Titans
3. (tie) Steve Slaton, RB – Houston Texans
6. Ryan Clady, OT – Denver Broncos
7. Jake Long, OT – Miami Dolphins
8. Eddie Royal, WR – Denver Broncos
9. Kevin Smith, RB – Detroit Lions
10. Jonathan Stewart, RB – Carolina Panthers


Top 10 Defensive Rookies:

Jerod Mayo (courtesy of daylife)

1. Jerod Mayo, LB – New England Patriots
2. Chris Horton, S – Washington Redskins
3. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB – Arizona Cardinals
4. Curtis Lofton, LB – Atlanta Falcons
5. Brandon Carr, CB – Kansas City Chiefs
6. Brandon Flowers, CB – Kansas City Chiefs
7. Antoine Cason, CB – San Diego Chargers
8. Cliff Avril, DE – Detroit Lions
9. Aqib Talib, CB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Jason Jones, DT – Tennessee Titans


Top 3 Rookie Squads (By Team):

1) Atlanta Falcons: QB Matt Ryan, OT Sam Baker, LB Curtis Lofton, CB Chevis Jackson, WR Harry Douglas
2) Denver Broncos: OT Ryan Clady, WR Eddie Royal, RB Ryan Torain, FB Spencer Larson, S Josh Barrett, RB Peyton Hillis, LB Wesley Woodard, P Brett Kern
3) Kansas City Chiefs: DT Glenn Dorsey, OT Branden Albert, CB Brandon Flowers, RB Jamaal Charles, CB Brandon Carr, CB Maurice Leggett


2008 PHSports NFL All-Rookie Team:

QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Offensive Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan finished the season with 3440 yards 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also had a 61.1 completion percentage and an 87.7 passer rating. All great numbers for a rookie QB. But, most impressive was his ability to lead a team, decimated by debacles surrounding Bobby Petrino and Michael Vick, to the playoffs. Joe Flacco also deserves mention as he did similar things with the Ravens. (Backup: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens)

RB: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears & Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans & Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – Many, including Chris Johnson, feel that Johnson was the top RB in this year’s draft. Actually Johnson thought he was the top player in the draft. I put Matt Forte and Steve Slaton right up there with him as the top RB. All three rushed for similar yardage (1200+). Slaton had 9 TDs, while Forte and Johnson had 8. All had good receiving numbers. Forte had 63 catches for 4 TDs, Slaton had 50 for 1 TD and Johnson had 43 for 1 TD. All three were solid contributors to their teams in positions where the teams needed help. (Backups: Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions; Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers)

WR: Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos & DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – Eddie Royal came out of nowhere on the first Monday Night Football game of the season, nabbing 9 passes for 146 yards and a TD. He continued to be productive all season as Brandon Marshall’s running mate, finishing with 91 catches 980 yards and 5 TDs, leading all rookies in those receiving categories. DeSean Jackson caught 62 passes for 912 yards for 2 scores. Both receivers were also cogs in the return game, with Jackson adding a TD on a punt return. (Backups: Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams; Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins)

TE: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks – It was a tight race for the top rookie TE. Receiving numbers were comparable with Carlson nabbing 55 passes for 617 yards and 4 TDs. However, the caveat that must be taken into consideration was that Carlson had to shoulder more of a load with all the injuries at WR in Seattle. (Backup: Dustin Keller, New York Jets)

C: Jamey Richard, Indianapolis Colts – There wasn’t much playing time given to rookie centers this year, however Jamey Richard is definitely deserved of this spot. In the seven games that he filled in for Jeff Saturday, the Colts didn’t skip a beat, going 5-2.

G: Mike Pollak, Indianapolis Colts & Carl Nicks, New Orleans Saints – Both rookie guards started the last 13 games of the season for their teams. Mike Pollak brought a run blocking presence to the Colts that they haven’t had at guard in a few years. He will be a mainstay on that line for years. Carl Nicks was forced into starting when Jamar Nesbit went down. He did such a great job that when Nesbit returned, Nicks held the starting spot. (Backup: Jeremy Zuttah, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

T: Ryan Clady, Denver Broncos & Jake Long, Miami Dolphins – Both Clady and Long started all 16 games for their teams. Clady was especially dominant all season, and should have garnered Pro Bowl attention. He gave up on a ½ sack all season and was only flagged 3 times. Long lived up to his status as the #1 overall pick, helping a 1-15 team improve by solidifying the offensive front and protecting his QB who received some MVP votes. (Backups: Jeff Otah, Carolina Panthers; Duane Brown, Houston Texans)

DT: Sedrick Ellis, New Orleans Saints & Jason Jones, Tennessee Titans – This wasn’t the best year for DTs, but there were a couple that stood out. Sedrick Ellis was thrust into the starting role from day one, holding his own and finishing with 30 tackles and 4 sacks. Jones, on the other hand, didn’t play much early, but his impact later in the season could not be overlooked. He finished with 5 sacks (with 3.5 coming in a dominant game against Pittsburgh). Jones is also versatile enough to move over to DE. (Backups: Glenn Dorsey, Kansas City Chiefs; Marcus Harrison, Chicago Bears)

DE: Cliff Avril, Detroit Lions & Trevor Scott, Oakland Raiders – Like DT, the pickings at DE were somewhat slim this year. Many big names failed to step up. Avril didn’t start until the last month of the season, but proved his worth on the hapless Lions team by registering 4 of his 5 sacks in the last 6 games. Trevor Scott was a pass rushing specialist for the Raiders. While he never started, he put together 5 sacks in his limited play and should be a bigger part of the defense next season. (Backups: Chris Long, St. Louis Rams; Kendall Langford, Miami Dolphins)

LB: Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots & Curtis Lofton, Atlanta Falcons & Keith Rivers, Cincinnati Bengals – Defensive Rookie of the Year Jarod Mayo leads a deep set of rookie LBs that contributed to their teams this season. He finished the season with 128 tackles and solidified himself as a starter in the middle of the Patriots 3-4 defense for a long time. Curtis Lofton might have won the DROY honors if it wasn’t for Mayo’s great year. Lofton was a key part of a defense (94 tackles) that reversed the fortune of the Falcons and got them to the playoffs. Keith Rivers didn’t play the entire year as he had a season-ending injury, however, he started off strong enough to garner a spot on this team. His impact went beyond the numbers as well, as he showed great coverage skills in his short time. (Backups: Wesley Woodard, Denver Broncos; Xavier Adibi, Houston Texans)

CB: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Arizona Cardinals & Brandon Carr, Kansas City Chiefs – While the Arizona Cardinals had teams passing all over them, DRC held his own while being thrown into the fire as a rookie. DRC picked 4 passes on the season, including a 99 yarder for a TD. He also batted down 23 passes, which is the reason I rate him as highly as I did. It won’t be long before he’s a shutdown corner in this league. Carr, a 5th rounder, stepped up from Day 1 for the Chiefs. He amassed 73 tackles and played as the Chiefs’ top corner all season. (Backups: Brandon Flowers, Kansas City Chiefs; Antoine Cason, San Diego Chargers; Aqib Talib, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Dwight Lowery, New York Jets)

S: Chris Horton, Washington Redskins & Kenny Phillips, New York Giants – Horton started the year off as the early favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Much of his ball-hawking hype came off a 3 turnover (2 INT, 1 Fumble Recover) game against New Orleans in Week 2. However, his play the rest of the season still landed him on this squad, as he was all over the field as a safety making tackles (76) and coming up big in run support. Kenny Phillips didn’t start many games for the Giants, but was a key contributor to the defending Super Bowl Champs’ defensive backfield. He registered 67 tackles and an interception. In a full-time role next season, he could end up doing a lot more damage to offenses. (Backup: Charles Godfrey, Carolina Panthers)

Special Teams: K Dan Carpenter, Miami Dolphins & P Brett Kern, Denver Broncos & KR/PR Clifton Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Carpenter looked pretty good in his rookie season, going 21 for 25 on field goals, including a 50 yarder. Brett Kern had a nice year in the Mile High air, by booting 46 punts for a 46.7 yard average. Clifton Smith, undrafted out of Fresno State, caused teams to start kicking away from him. He returned both a kickoff and a punt for TDs this season.

NFL WildCard Weekend: Saturday's 5 Questions

..5 Questions for EACH Game...

Atlanta @ Arizona [4:30 pm]
1) Can the Cardinals win without any legitimacy to their rush offense?
2) Will Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals be able to overcome an abysmal December and win their first playoff game at home since the Bronze Age?
3) How do the Falcons plan to prepare for the talented three wideouts - Fitzgerald, Boldin, & Breaston - wearing Cardinal uniforms?
4) Will Matt Ryan officially show the world who "Matty Ice" is?
5) How many yards do you have for runner-up for the MVP Michael Turner against a suspect Cardinals rush D?

Colts @ Chargers [8 pm]
1) How much will a healthy combo of Freeney/Mathis impact the Charger offense?
2) What impact will new defensive coordinator Ron Rivera have against Peyton Manning and the Colt offense?
3) What are the prospective injury-statuses of Colt Bob Sanders as well as Chargers superstars LaDanian Tomlinson & Antonio Gates
4) Are the Chargers lethal because they're at home, yet still "playing with house money"?
5) Is Phillip Rivers the most unappreciated guy in recent memory to lead (tied with Brees) the NFL in TD passes?

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Atlanta at Arizona

Atlanta Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do allow Matt Ryan to tee it up deep to Michael Jenkins and Roddy White a few times. Arizona's pass defense was ranked 22nd in the league and can be picked on within reason.

Do give Jerious Norwood his 10 touches. I don't know if the guy can handle the load of a starter, but he is one of the most explosive backups in the league, and he should be able to break either a run or a screen pass for a long gain if given the opportunity.

Do pressure Kurt Warner early and hard. Kurt fell into the "extended slump" portion of his career via getting rushed and hit hard ... remind him of those hits or else he'll make you pay.

Don’t ignore Tim Hightower. He's like the boogey man ... if you shine the lights on him, he can't hurt you.

Don’t be afraid to play with 5 DBs on occasion. Kurt Warner knows how to find open receivers, even if it's the 3rd Down RB or the backup TE.

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do make use of Steve Breaston early. If he becomes a factor in the first half, it'll force Atlanta to divert their attention from Fitzgerald/Boldin or even Hightower onto Breaston, and will open up the field even more.

Do stack 7 men in the box on defense. Atlanta relies heavily on the rushing attack to open up the passing game and allow rookie QB Matt Ryan to ease into his "ice mode." If Arizona can stymie the run game early and force Matty Ryan to go to the air too early, it's their best chance.

Do get fancy on special teams. Maybe let Larry Fitzgerald return a kickoff or punt, or something. This is playoff time ... roll up your sleeves and be creative.

Don’t rely on Kurt Warner's aged arm early in the game. The running game isn't the Cards bread nor their butter, however if they can establish 3.5 ypc early on, it'll keep the Atlanta D on its toes.

Don’t forget that you're an NFC West team playing an NFC South team. The NFC West was arguably the weakest conference in the league this year, so even though Arizona has home field, it hardly has an advantage in this game ... play like you're the lower seed with a chip on your shoulder.

Key Matchups:

When Atlanta has the ball
RB Michael Turner vs. OLB Karlos Dansby
As I noted above, Atlanta must establish it's running attack to ease the transition to playoff mode for Matt Ryan. But Arizona will undoubtedly have Karlos Dansby breathing down Michael Turner's neck from the getgo. Dansby had 119 tackles on the season, leading the Cardinals. If Turner can escape, this game won't be close.

When Arizona has the ball
QB Kurt Warner vs. The Entire Atlanta Defense
It's no secret: Atlanta's defense is not that good. Ranked 24th overall, 21st against the pass and 25th against the run. For an experienced play maker like Kurt Warner, this should be a lot of fun. Atlanta will have to realize that Warner will make a few plays on them, but if Warner cannot lead his offense to TDs on 2 of the Cardinals first 3 possessions, that'll be a victory for Atlanta's D.

Intangibles:

Time Travel
No, not like Uncle Rico and Napoleon. However, Atlanta is traveling from the Eastern Time Zone to the Pacific. No team got screwed as much by jet lag and travel this year as the Arizona Cardinals. This is, perhaps, where home field might actually be an advantage for the Cards as it protects them from traveling east for the game. Maybe it's payback time...

Motivation
As I mentioned in the FourCast this past week, the Falcons have definitely been through the ringer from the Vick through the Petrino fiascos. Yet this year, the team has been on a mission to shake off the bitter past, and that mission has led them into the playoffs. Arizona, on the other hand, is finally back in the playoffs after years of futility. Which head coach will be able to inspire his team prior to the coin-flip?

Final Score Prediction:
Atlanta wins, 24-20.

Tuesday FourCast: Week 16

In recent weeks, Sum and Armin have done laps around me with creative and catchy FourCasts. I have to admit, I've done a little too much ranting - which is always much better suited for "InClement Weather" - and haven't been able to leave the kiddie pool creativity-wise.

That needs to change...I'm just not sure if I can do it today.
I'll try a theme, but as usual it's going to be a little too self-serving, cliched, and gimmicky.
Hey, it's all I can do!!!

I know...let's butcher a classic (holiday) Christmas song!!!

1) On the 1st Day of Christmas...
You know the rest. Basically, the "mother partridge" feigns injury to decoy predators from her helpless nestlings. Sounds a lot like Bill Parcells with (last year's 1-15) Miami Dolphins to me. During the offseason he set his claws into the organization and did a few things many didn't agree with: hire Tony Sporano, trade Jason Taylor, give big money to Ernest Wilford, and bring over ex-Cowboys like Anthony Fasano/Jason Ferguson. Well, all of the above worked except choice C. Nevertheless, the team is 10-5 and in total control of its playoff destiny. Parcells also had the foresight to keep Chad Pennington in the AFC East with a very manageable 2-year contract. It's been a quiet year for Parcells in Miami only in front of the microphone. His impact has been felt like an after shock on the field.

2) On the 3rd Day of Christmas...
Three turtle doves. Home Alone 2 didn't get it right; instead, it's the three theological virtues. In reference (sorta), what three NFL stars got by on their virtues - instead of their performance - to make the Pro Bowl?
A) Brett Favre had no business being invited to Honolulu, especially after the past month. Despite his team being 6-8, Phillip Rivers leads the NFL in touchdown passes AND Matt Cassell has only struggled in Blitzburgh (who hasn't?) leading his team to 10-5 with a surprisingly deft touch and quicker feet.
B) Clinton Portis was my NFL MVP two months ago and has played as bruised and battered as any back I can remember in recent memory. Nevertheless, Brandon Jacobs - despite missing two weeks - is the heart and soul of the best team in the NFL. While I love Eli, we saw what the Giants were sans-B Jacobs the past two weeks. Insert him this past week into the starting lineup and you notice how much free space Jacobs softens up for Derrick Ward (200+ yards!) in the second half and OT. DeAngelo Williams fans (20 TDs!) might have a legitimate beef too. Portis was a little too irrelevant the past five or six weeks on a team that rode him to 6-2 and then collapsed. While you can blame most of that on Zorn & Campbell, I'll take Jacobs in the Pro Bowl over Portis. This is gonna cause some HEAT!
C) John Abraham needs to be a Pro Bowler. He's stayed healthy (somehow) and has piled up 16.5 sacks and forced 4 fumbles. He is the havoc causer on an emerging Atlanta D. While it's tough to argue with the DEs taken before him, I might cost-cut Jared Allen or even Julius Peppers in exchange for the less talent-surrounded Abraham. He's done more with much less. That means Honolulu for me in a close DE-race.

3) On the 6th Day of Christmas...
The six days of creation of the world. Got it. The first six picks of the recent NFL Draft have had relatively quiet seasons. Almost too quiet. #1 overall pick Jake Long was 50/50 with Dolphin fans on draft day, yet has been a steady contributor and should be for the next 5-6 years (or more, let's not guarantee 10 yet). 2nd overall pick Chris Long has been quieted by a 2-13 team; however, has shown promise and potential at the defensive end position (played in all 15 games, 4 sacks). 3rd pick Matt Ryan - the exception to my rule and my emerging man crush - has the Falcons - yes, the Atlanta Falcons - in the NFL playoffs and somehow eligible for the NFC South division title and maybe even a first-round bye. I don't want to hear any CRAP about the first-to-worst rule in that division either. Many thought this team would struggle for decades after the Vick-debacle (like me!). Fourth pick Darren "Run DMC" McFadden has shown two things: A) An ability to play throw pain B) The need to be in a platoon or at least 2-back system. Of course, he is a RAIDER, so his career may be over with before his rookie contract ends. Fifth pick Glenn Dorsey was considered an absolute steal 24 hours after the draft; yet - especially with the trading of Jared Allen - he is all alone on a relatively talentless KC defensive front. He has 1 sack, but it isn't fair to label him after one season. Vernon Gholston came in with HUGE question marks and has struggled mightily in the Jet 3-4 system (12 tackles and 0 sacks ALL YEAR). He is quickly being labeled a bust, yet has gotten praise from LT (the real one) and will need an offseason or two before he's out of New York and a draft-day villain.

4) On the 10th Day of Christmas...
Ten Lords-a leaping. I almost forgot it was in reference to the 10 Commandments. Sounds like a good basis for fantasy football banter.
A) If Kurt Warner got you to your fantasy championship game, he sure didn't win it for you.
B) If you had a non-Ray Rice Raven RB starting, you sure loved that 4th quarter in Big D.
C) Chad Ocho Cinco better hope his name change gets him drafted next year in the first 8 rounds of most leagues.
D) Michael Turner is gonna be a top 5 pick.
E) Matt Forte is gonna be a first-round pick.
F) What in the world will people do with Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson?
G) Any chance Matt Cassell will go before/in the same round as Tom Brady?
H) Who you got: Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson?
I) Will the Charger D be a force again with the return of Merriman?
J) Which rookie - come on Armin, help us out - will be a first 5-round pick?

I hope you enjoyed the ride. Enjoy the holidays!!!

InClement Weather: 10 Midnight Musings

First off, push aside any of your "home-grown" playoff scenarios and just go here:
You can play out ANY scenario you want and get your results. And I mean ANY.

As usual, Yahoo! Sports is the place I go to get the very best.

Look closely and you'll see my co-NFL MVPs. Yep, I said it and I meant it.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Here are 5 nuggets from this week and 5 more from next week...

...5 From This Week...
1) How about we eliminate the division champs from the NFC and AFC West in the playoffs? Denver is choking almost as hard as the Jets and the Bolts may sneak in behind Norv Turner of all coaches; meanwhile, the Cardinals are an absolute embarrassment. I don't care when they 'clinched', they're the easiest 1st-round out in years, even at home.
2) Nobody wants New England in the playoffs. Nobody.
3) Brett Favre is going to retire. Mark it down. Let's see how New England acts if Cassell may get courted by the Jets.
4) Matt Ryan and Michael Turner should share the NFL MVP (see above dumby!)
5) Mike Smith and Tony Sporano should share the Head Coach of the Year Award.

...5 For Next Week...
6) If the Chargers win, that sets up Indy @ San Diego in the 1st round. Who doesn't like that drama/rematch? Even I do...
7) If the Eagles beat Dallas at home, neither might be in. Why? Oakland would have to beat Tampa for Philly to get in at 9-6-1. Ditto if the J-E-T-S beat the Fish & Pennington. By the way, it's S-U-C-K now.
8) Baltimore can still get knocked out with a loss. Although they can get in without a W without too bizarre a scenario, barely.
9) With #1 locked up, do the Giants suit up a team against Minnesota?
10) If Chicago loses tomorrow night, the Vikes might not suit up a team either.

Here are a few of the "more" important scenarios to take into account:
-Denver vs. San Diego is FLEXED by NBC. The winner is the AFC's 4-seed. Lock it up.
-Dallas wins and they are in. After all these past few years have seen for the enigmatic wideout of all wideouts, TO needs to help deliver a win in Philly. Wow.
-Miami wins and they are AFC East champs and the #3 seed. Easy. If they lose, there is NO scenario for a playoff birth. NONE.
-New England could end up only the second 11-5 team to NOT make the playoffs. How? Miami & Baltimore winning (both are favored).

The real key - as I see it - is the scheduling of games. Flexing can be done by CBS & Fox as well for the 4pm slate.

But which game gets the national 4pm spotlight? Or do two?
Dallas vs. Philly has FOX written all over it; meanwhile, NY Jets/Miami is a CBS showdown. There are other options; however, I don't see any being as plausible.

The aforementioned two could be very very interesting seeing as Tampa/Oakland should be a lock for 1pm; ditto for Buffalo/New England and Jacksonville/Baltimore. OH THE DRAMA!

Just imagine if New England and B-More win; who do the Jet fans root for between them and the Phins? Seriously? While nobody ever roots for their team to lose (or do they?), will memories of Spygate remind Jet fans a loss to the Fish spells doom for the Patsies?
Note: The team would never feel that way...I hope. Pride is pride. But fans (not me...yet) have sadistic levels of thinking.

While that's playing Devil's Advocate, it's still a game you play with playoff scenarios. While I see ZERO chance of either occurring, obviously there's two ways to get in for New York's not-so-finest:
1) WIN & New England loss to JP Losman & Buffalo (yeah, sure)
2) WIN & Baltimore loss to 5-10 Jacksonville (I'm on it!)
Note: Both are home games for the Patsies and Ravens.

Of course, WINNING in the first place isn't likely. Nevertheless...

It will be as crazy a Week 17 as we've seen in years. Especially if - let's say - the Jets beat the Fins and Iggles the Cowboys (or vice-versa in that second game) and neither of the four are in.

Drama...indeed.

Good luck!!!

NFL Monday Wrap-Up

Is it fair to "wrap-up" the NFL week before Monday night's game? Yes.

We all try our best to supply a top-notch Fourcast; however, I feel the juice of a successful Sunday running through my veins (J-E-T-S) and think it's time our loyal reader(s) get to enjoy Monday analysis outside of Peter "Stiller" King and whomever else wants to rant today.

While I could generate talk of the week galore, instead I want to focus on the "awards chase", which changes weekly (of course).

Awards Index: Monday of Week 12

MVP
1) Kurt Warner
-The 300+ yards would've looked better with a W, more than 1 TD, less than 2 turnovers, and countless other reasons. Nevertheless, the Cardinals remain 7-4 and primed for a NFC West title and good shot at a bye (the NFC South will beat each other up). What was truly telling - even with the G-Men absent Jacobs & Plax - was the Cardinals expecting to win yesterday. Guess who changed that philosophy??? Warner (and Whisenhunt).
2) Peyton Manning
-Don't look now but the Colts are becoming the favorite in the AFC playoff picture. If they get in. To think, David Thomas might end up playing a huge role in a tie-breaker between Colts/Pats. The more likely scenario has the Ravens falling off and the Colts/Pats being lethal 5 and 6 seeds. Yikes.
3) Eli Manning
-Jacobs and the RBs get all the acclaim; however, it's obvious Eli is a changed QB. Despite some struggles at times, he is a poised passer who can win games. The Giants are 10-1 and the consensus best team in the league. It's because of their QB they are 10-1. Thus, the #3 slot.
4) Michael Turner
-Matt Ryan's story is getting more pub; yet, Turner changed Atlanta. A few frowned at how much of an impact he could have, until he finally won me over with a 4 TD day. He's 3rd in the NFL in rushing and is a fantasy force to boot. Turner has Atlanta in prime contention for a playoff spot. Nobody saw that. NOBODY.
5) Brett Favre
-Jets fan, right? Of course. Check the atmosphere in New York around Favre and the team. He breeds confidence and winning. The Jets are 8-3. After the 1-2 start and that loss at Oakland, I questioned the move. Now, I realize why Green Bay fans love the guy so much. He's an egotistical prick who wanted everything handed to him. Now, he's winning with a team that has a lot more talent - and spent their money oh so well this off-season - and is becoming dangerous.

Offensive Player of the Year
1) Clinton Portis
-On a gimpy knee he carried the Skins to victory in Seattle. Then Ladell Betts ruined it. Why Jim Zorn had to back up Betts the way he did is beyond me.
2) Adrian Peterson
-Durability is still an issue...or is it? A-Pete is likely to take home a rushing crown, but can he get his team into the playoffs out of a crowded NFC North?
3) Kurt Warner
-As talented as Fitz/Boldin/Breaston are, do you honestly think Matt Leinart would have them at numbers anywhere close to they are now? Seriously?
4) Brandon Jacobs
-Missed a week; however, his rushing prowess, goalline abilities, and the steamrolling attitude has been a godsend for the Giants. He's also made Derrick Ward and Bradshaw better because their contrasting styles are a nightmare after Jacobs bulldozes you.

Defensive Player of the Year
1) Kris Jenkins
-Slips past Alby due to shutting down he gameplan for the Titans. Guess how many rushing attempts Len Dale had? ONE. That isn't because the Titans planned on passing. (Not with Revis, Rhodes, & Elam playing so well) Instead, the Titans knew Jenkins would swallow up the inside rush attack and CJ had to be deployed outside the tackles. Didn't work either way. Jenkins or Favre is a great "better off-season trade" debate.
2) Albert Haynesworth
-One week doesn't take away from an incredible campaign. He is getting better. Although, I don't like the excuses of him being dinged up in the second half. He was barely a factor in the first. Faneca has breathed life back into Mangold. It's ironic Mangold and Mawae were on the same field yesterday, at least for me.
3) Charles Woodson
-He might intercept 12 passes...tonight. Drew Brees is overrated as an offensive force. So what if he throws for a lot of yards. His team constantly underachieves and it isn't 100% the defense. The offense makes plenty of mistakes, including Brees. As Pay told me, his stats are biggest in his losses. I smell a pick-six for good old AllProCW2 (plug!).
4) Julius Peppers
-His return to dominance might've been rushed. He's been a force this year, yet I want to see it in a big game. A really big game. He'll get his shot soon enough.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
1) Matt Ryan
-If you thought the Falcons would be 7-4 and that Ryan would have 7 games without an INT, go to Vegas and start placing multiple bets.
2) Joe Flacco
-If you thought Joe Flacco would be 7-4 as a rookie starting QB, you'd have to think the Ravens defense from 2000 was cloned in 2K8.
3) Matt Forte
-Amazing he's an obvious third-selection. The guy is a force of nature as of late. By the way, this dude can catch the ball too. If anything, he would've been a great third down back by this point for any other team who might've drafted him.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
1) Jerod Mayo
-Enough said. Oh wait, he's a BEAST. (Damn Patsies)

I'll let you all worry about Comeback and Executive of the Year and all the rest.

Although I gotta give more Jet love to our former QB Chad Pennington.
Could he really win Comeback Player of the Year two years in a row?
Stranger things have happened...

See you next Monday!!!

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 11

...sans intro...

NFL Picks: 28-16 [Of all the games to get wrong, I'm happiest it was a 47-3 victory for the Jets.]
Upset Specials: 7-7 [It's the return of the...oh wait...no way...he didn't just say, what I think he did, did he?]

While you won't find any New England/NY Jets talk...I will mention one key name you'd never expect. Jet LB David Bowens has mighty shoes to fill behind Kris Jenkins with David Harris still injured and out of the lineup. This is an unknown X-factor to the "press".

Credit: Flckr.com

Arizona @ Seattle (+3)
If Arizona had lost Monday night, this game would've taken on a whole new level of interest. Instead, greedy fantasy owners feast off of the Cardinals while Matt Hasselbeck returns as the starting QB...but for how long? Cards win, by much more than 3 in not-so-tough Seattle.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3)
Jacksonville is 4-5 and definitely can't afford 6 losses after 10 decisions. Meanwhile, Tennessee aired it out last week and won in Chicago. With another tough road test, I have to wonder if 10-0 is in their future? Yes. Why? Titans can stop the run. Jags can't win without it.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-4 1/2)
Rivers' stats are overinflated this season. This game is in Pittsburgh and the Stillers aren't losing back-to-back there. Their O-Line better beat up on a banged up Charger D. The real key in Pittsburgh is the health of "Fast Willie" and whether or not Santonio Holmes can be at least mildly productive this weekend. The Steelers - as well as a few fantasy owners - need that desperately.

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-3 1/2)
The 1/2 scares me; however, this game means way too much in both the NFC South, NFC North, and NFC Wild-Card. While APete is my #2 in the MVP-race (behind Warner), the Bucs D is rested and their offense should have a healthy Joey Galloway, Warrick Dunn, and even word of Cadillac Williams getting carries. I'm taking the home team to frustrated Frerotte into a pick-six (or two) and a vastly important home victory...somehow.

Upset Special #1
Dallas @ Washington (+2)
Most books won't take bets because of injury concerns to Romo (returning) and Portis (50/50) so early in the week. Not me. The Cowboys have too many new faces returning (Romo, Newman, & Jones) for me to pick them on the road. However, a win equals 6-4 and makes the NFC more wide open than ever. Interesting, if nothing else.

Upset Special #2
Denver @ Atlanta (-6)
Who would've ever imagined this number in Week 10 at the beginning of the season? NOBODY. While Jay Cutler may break down carrying this team, I don't want to give the Falcons too easy a road to 7-3. I imagine this being a FG type game. Extra interesting with new-kid Prater battling Bronco-vet Jason Elam. While I like the Falcons, I don't by 6.

Top Ten Fantasy Insights of the Week...You Didn't Expect
1) Depending on wideouts - even your Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall types - isn't safe come fantasy playoff stretch run.
2) Larry Johnson...avoid starting him this or any week.
3) Thomas Jones isn't going to have another 40-point week, but he's a weekly start now.
4) There's still enough upside to start guys like Steve Breaston.
5) Tony Gonzalez may quietly be this season's highest scoring tight end.
6) Defenses can win fantasy championships. Seriously.
7) Marvin Harrison just might be done.

Oh yeah, three NFL Thoughts to finish out the top 10.

8) Atlanta is going to make the playoffs.
9) So is Baltimore.
10) One of the above teams won't...obviously.

Until next time!

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 8

I'm taking the week off from "upset specials". Make it the month. (Sure thing Clement, there's one week left in the month).

Nevertheless, I proceed...

NFL Picks: 15-12 (This number is never seeing a double-digit lead. Or is it???)
Upset Specials: 5-7 (Stupid West Coast teams traveling cross country to play at 1pm on the East Coast.)
..courtesy of the Sportsbook...

Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-8 1/2)
I do not like this matchup for the Falcons. Philly is rested up - especially Brian Westbrook - off of the bye and Matt Ryan is gonna feel the Philly blitz big time. Interestingly enough, he's the only NFL QB not to be sacked on the blitz. Wow.

St. Louis @ New England (-7)
Sammy Morris is out and now the Patriot backfield has its ugliest platoon in years. Who cares? Stephen Jackson has groin problems and the Rams won't beat their third straight postseason team from 2007. Not even close.

Buffalo @ Miami (+1 1/2)
Pennington never played the Bills too well; however, he was always much more solid away from Orchard Park. Until the Phins find a wideout (or injure Trent Edwards), I'm actually predicting the Bills to get 6-1. Geez.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-2)
Does Vegas know something we don't? Tampa will make the Boys one-dimensional by suffocating Barber III (who needs Felix quite a bit). Nevertheless, I'm calling for a Dallas victory. Not sure how they'll do it though.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-4)
I'm sticking with my improbable Titans. Yes, I am.

Taking the week off fantasy-wise. Anything I say turns into cancer for my teams and others as of late.

Lucky you!!!

Until next week...

Quick Hits From Week 6

In lieu of the running blog that we at PHSports have done throughout most of the season, I wanted to offer some quick hits from a most interesting Week 6. As noted in this past Tuesday's edition of the FourCast, awkward games are this season's calling card.

• In the early set of games, the Washington Redskins lost three fumbles (all three in field goal range resulting in a potential 16-point swing) and gave away a game against the St. Louis Rams at the death. The Redskins outgained the Rams by over 150 yards. Maybe the Rams knew what they were doing when they made Donnie Avery the first WR taken in the draft and gave silly money to a kicker.

• In the game that would not end, Dallas forced overtime at Arizona and had seemingly stolen the momentum ... only to lose on a blocked punt. Despite another sloppy game from Dallas, their fourth in six games, many will decide to point fingers at the special teams who bookended the game with touchdowns surrendered.

• Indianapolis has resurrected its season and Marvin Harrison answered my question earlier today about whether he was done. He's not. Just ask Chris McAllister. The Colts may have longer term issues with the health of Joseph Addai hanging in the balance, but the timing which is so crucial to Indy's engine was functioning per usual.

• As expected, Jacksonville hit Denver in the mouth and won. Let's see if the Jags can do the unthinkable and aim for consistency.

• Perhaps we have been underrating the NFC South. Just ask the Chicago Bears who are 0-3 against the division. Three teams have 4 wins and New Orleans is in last with three wins. Also, paging the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan is no game manager. He's a winner.

• Philadelphia salvaged a fourth-quarter comeback against San Francisco. It's amazing how Correll Buckhalter's numbers can mirror that of Brian Westbrook's when he gets similar touches. Am I saying Buckhalter is as good as Westbrook? Not a chance. But I am saying that Buck can start in this league for at least 10 teams and it's no coincidence that his lack of touches correlate with losses to divisional foes. Also, I'm starting to think that Donovan McNabb is more comfortable without Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis. The team is 3-1 when neither have played, and the only loss was the shootout in Dallas.

Finding the Next Manning-Harrison Connection

I grew up in the '80s and watched the beginning, the evolution, and the end of the Montana-Rice combo. It was a thing of pure beauty from start to finish ... Joe Cool dropping back, finding the greatest WR of all time cutting across the middle, or gliding down along the sidelines, and finding a way to place the football directly into Jerry's arms, time and time again. How fitting that the one time that Joe Montana didn't win a Super Bowl MVP award, Rice was the one to receive it. Sure, Young-to-Rice resulted in more touchdowns (and was a dynamic combo in and of itself), but Montana-Rice was the original to me ... and who knows? Would Rice have developed to be so great without the tutelage of Montana? Sadly, however, that connection ended after time, and many wondered if we'd see such a bond between QB and WR ever again.

Which duo will be the next to carry the torch of awesomeness?

Of course, the late 1990s and this decade brought us the Manning-to-Harrison tandem, which proceeded to break the marks set by Montana and Rice. Like Montana and Rice, Manning and Harrison developed the bond that allowed them to know what the other was thinking before he thought it. And, of course, it led to many amazing passes and pass receptions for the viewing pleasure of NFL fans. But, alas, it seems that this bond is singing its own swan song, with Harrison missing most all of last season, and with neither of them at 100% this year. So, the question before the NFL is, will we ever see another fantastically prolific QB-WR duo? And if so, is that tandem together in the league right now? I'm going to venture out and analyze four potential duos that might soon vault to that level.

1. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall

Even though the season is young, and the two have only played one game together this season, this is the trendy pick. Both are young and dynamic players in their third seasons. Cutler has a cannon of an arm, and is a tough player who willed himself through a 40 pound weight loss, caused by diabetes, last season. His grit and playmaking abilities, in my opinion, remind me of a less-spastic Brett Favre. The question remains in his football intelligence, though that should be determined by season's end. Marshall is a playmaker through and through. Eighteen catches in his first appearance this season says enough. However, unlike Harrison, he's not the quiet type, and does have a bit of the T.O. "i love me some me" mentality, which could lead to excessive temper tantrums down the stretch, thereby diminishing his relationship with Cutler.

But, the strongest argument aside from their individual capacities, in my mind, that these two can become the next Manning-Harrison, stems from that brazen personality of Marshall. Last summer, when Marshall injured himself through his wayward antics, Cutler didn't hold back. He called out his #1 receiver in the public eye. While most may see that as a source of friction, I see it as the type of "calling out" that exists between two people who respect each other and hold one another in high regard ... like a guy telling his close friend to shape up. If I'm right in my reading of the situation, this duo should have many seasons of success before it, barring intervention by free agency.

2. Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress

This list couldn't be complete without including the younger Manning brother as a potential heir to his brother's spot. It took Eli four seasons to catch the Super Bowl win that it took Peyton nine seasons to grasp, and Archie has always said he feels Eli was the better player ... maybe there's something to that. Plaxico is no slouch either. Sure, I enjoyed referring to him as "Plexiglass" for his first few seasons, thanks to his countless injuries. But his tough play through injuries during all of last season earned him lots of respect. His talent was never a question, but he has excelled past where I had him ranked.

Eli, in his fifth year, has finally matured into a leader and has developed the calm swagger requisite for a QB to attain elite status, though he's still a total dork. That Eli has reached a higher level of play at the same time Plax has finally stepped up into a #1 WR role bodes well for the Giants and very well for the potential of keeping a Manning as part of the NFL's top QB-WR combination.

3. Trent Edwards and Lee Evans

Trent Edwards is only in his second season, but he has developed a solid relationship with his fifth-year wideout. The thing I like about this team is that Evans had three years to mature as a receiver before Edwards came along, much like Harrison having a two-year head start over Peyton Manning. This gap lets the receiver aid in tutoring the quarterback, thereby allowing Edwards the opportunity to not only learn how to be a good QB in the NFL, but also how to be a good QB for Evans.

Of course, there is less of a body of evidence to base this on than there is the Cutler-Marshall combo (the requisite "M" last name is also missing from this duo), but the situation is one that I like a lot. Even if it does not excel to the levels of Manning-Harrison greatness, it is one that will still excel for a few years.

4. Matt Ryan and Roddy White

This is probably the biggest gamble I'm taking, but then again each of these is a gamble. Matt Ryan had an awesome finish to his college career, and had an amazing start in the NFL, tossing a 62-yard touchdown pass on his very first professional throw. Roddy White is a talented fourth-year receiver who has the tools to be able to make it as a premier wideout. Unfortunately, this duo only has 120-minutes of game experience to be analyzed, so I cannot really say much. However, I can point to the six times they have connected for 113 yards, an average of nearly 19-yards per reception. That's not exactly the stuff of legends, but given the 2:1 run:pass ratio used by the Falcons thus far, the numbers aren't shabby. Ultimately my gut wants me to include them as the fourth option, given their individual talents, that White has three seasons already under his belt, and that Ryan seems to have a good football head on his shoulders.

Honorable Mention

If I were to include a fifth tandem, it would likely be Brees-Colston, however Brees has been too inconsistent over his first seven seasons and Colson will miss the next six weeks or so. I just don't see it. I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. They have a lot going for them, but I'm not sure I see the possibility of that "connection" that is necessary to reach Montana/Rice or Manning/Harrison levels. Also, there are other duos capable of great successes, such as Romo/T.O., Brady/Moss, and McNabb/Jackson. However, in each of these pairs, there is one player who has at least reached the 10-year mark on his career (T.O., Moss and McNabb), which doesn't bode well in hoping for numerous years of awesomeness as a QB-WR duo. But still, they do get some props.

Tuesday FourCast: Week 1

Welcome to this year’s first installment of the Tuesday FourCast. For those who are new readers or for those who just need a refresher each Tuesday morning during the NFL regular season, one member of the PHSports staff will give his list of four things to take away from the weekend’s slate of games. Since the four of us have different styles, you will receive a variety of thoughts across the football spectrum. The only constant is quality.

#1: You Can No Longer Assume Health of Certain Players
Tom Brady’s injury tells us a number of things. First, the Patriots are no longer the frontrunners to return to the Super Bowl. Second, Tom Brady’s career following a torn ACL will never be the same. Third, how does this affect the value of Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss and Wes Welker?

What stuns me to end is that you can no longer assume the health of certain players, including but not limited to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, and yes, Brett Favre. This further demonstrates the imposed parity that exists within the NFL caused by unintended events. That is why, on average, only 7 of 12 playoff teams return the following year.

In a slightly related story, Patriots players need to shut their mouths. While I understand how it feels to have your best player out for the year (I have my PhD in this … I’m an Eagles fan), it’s another thing entirely to say Bernard Pollard should be fined for his hit on Tom Brady. Be quiet, Randy Moss. Quit comparing apples and oranges, Vince Wilfork. It’s not like Pollard, a safety, treated Brady’s leg like a table to rest his elbow on. That’s what Vince Wilfork did.



#2: Who Said All Rookie WRs Had a Steep Learning Curve?
Someone forgot to send that memo to DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal – both second-round picks. Jackson and Royal filled in for injured/suspended players and deputized admirably in the receiving department as well as special teams.

What was consistent with both rookie wide receiver performances is that their quarterbacks involved them early. Jackson was targeted on the first two plays for Philadelphia and made his imprint on the Eagles faithful with a 40+ yard reception. As for Royal, he was included on two passes and two rushes. Royal finished with 9 catches and 146 yards with a touchdown and torched DeAngelo Hall. What is most impressive about these rookies has been their route-running skills, which is a positive sign for future growth and development. Not to mention, both made heady plays which made fans forget that they are rookies.

#3: The AFC Is In Trouble
Last year, Sum so subtly described the plight of the NFC. The tables have turned. Among the six teams that made the AFC Playoffs last season, only half of them won, and among those three (New England, Pittsburgh and Tennessee), only Pittsburgh avoided a multi-week injury to their quarterback. Here is a rundown of how the AFC elite fared.
* New England. Won in ugly fashion behind Matt Cassel. Though Tom Brady once had the “game manager” tag, I will be shocked if Cassel rises to stardom like Brady did en route to a Super Bowl.
* Indianapolis and San Diego. Lost on respective their home fields to NFC teams who watched the playoffs from their living rooms.
* Pittsburgh. The only team with double-digit wins to win in impressive fashion. Willie Parker looked like a man possessed.
* Jacksonville. Much like Week 1 last year, they were stifled on the ground. Even worse, they lost both starting guards. Poor David Garrard.
* Tennessee. Despite winning, the Titans were awful. And by awful, I don’t mean they were full of awe. The Titans’ apologists will tell you that Chris Johnson and the defense played well, and that they generally win ugly.
* Cleveland. Steamrolled by Dallas. Additions on defense had a combined one good play, which resulted in 13 stitches for Mr. Jessica Simpson.

All of this can be summed in one word. Ouch.

#4: Don’t Buy Into the Hype … Yet
Matt Ryan. Joe Flacco. Aaron Rodgers. All three made their first NFL start (so did JT O’Sullivan, I think, but who cares about him?) and all three were winners. As I tell everyone I come across, the first week of the NFL season is all about anomalies. Perhaps, it’s an excuse I employ to explain losing an inordinate number of Week 1 matchups. Perhaps, it’s Tom Brady tearing an ACL in the first quarter of the first game and it’s Carson Palmer laying the mother of all eggs. Some events become trends, but most are one-time occurrences. That said, if all three continue to show poise under pressure and guide their teams to victory, then the hype is well worth it. Though he played against a Pop Warner defense, Matt Ryan impressed the most. It never hurts when you have a running back who breaks the franchise’s single-game rushing yards record … in his first game as a Falcon.

NFL Week 1 Running Blog

On Thursday, the NFL officially started its season. That said, today is when the league really gets down to business. Here are some ongoing observations ...

210pm

• Tom Brady has suffered a knee injury. Matt Cassel has deputized quite well in engineering a long scoring drive. Cassel to Moss? For now, it'll have to work.
• 17 minutes into the NFL season, Willie Parker has matched his touchdown total from last year (two). So much for Rashard Menden Fumblehall stealing goal-line touches. Pittsburgh is having its way with Houston. Big Ben has been sacked a grand total of zero times.
• The Eagles are looking superb thus far against the hapless Rams. The Eagles are without their top 2 WRs, which would be third and fourth on everyone else's depth chart. DeSean Jackson is electrifying.
• I expected a big day from Michael Turner, but 135 yards on 9 carries with two TDs is sick on many levels. Matt Ryan has completed all five pass attempts and done something that no Atlanta QB has done ... make Michael Jenkins relevant.
• With a knackered Mike Nugent, Brett Favre pulls a Brett Favre and throws a pass that Chansi Stuckey (7th rounder from last year) grabs for dear life on 4th and 13. J-E-T-S ?

320pm

• The two teams from Pennsylvania have been most impressive. St. Louis and Houston are not this bad.
• So much for Miami RBs running all over the Jets. Early in the 4th quarter, the Dolphins have a whopping 49 rushing yards.
• Devery Henderson is the only NFL receiver who I think can maintain a 84.0 ypc average.
• Listed Chad Ocho Cinco Johnson ... he finally has a catch. The Bangles are still down 10-3 to a rookie QB and Willis McGahee resting. How has Chris Perry done so far ... barely averaging more than 2 ypc with a lost fumble. What is Shaun Alexander's mobile #?

355pm

• It's obligatory that I bring up the beatdown in Orchard Park. I did pick the Bills in my pick'em league, but I did not expect the whalloping that is being evidenced. Who knew that Trent Edwards would have more passing yards than Matt Hasselbeck? Not me. In his defense, it's hard to throw the ball when you're placed on your back five times and hurried many more times. I did know that Julius Jones sucks though. 8 carries and -5 yards.
• Why were the Eagles starters still in the game with a 31-point lead? Kevin Kolb just completed a pass ... why did the Eagles trade up in the 2nd round to select him two drafts ago?
• Matt Schaub is somewhat of a fantasy garbage time king. Down by a million points, he now has two TDs to his name. That said, he has done zero to validate the lump sum he recieved last year. Is that a Sage I see in the distance?
• Tennessee is closing in on "upset" at home against Jacksonville. The inability for the Jags to rush the ball reminds me of their first game of the season last year, which was against these very Titans. Though I was shocked to see him get drafted in the first round, Chris Johnson has been stellar today with over 90 yards and a receiving TD.

640pm

• Dallas has stomped a mudhole into Cleveland. After Felix scored a TD in his first NFL carry, Clement said, "It took 1 play for Felix Jones to make sure Julius Jones is never uttered again in Dallas."
• San Diego is playing like ... a team coached by Norv Turner. While the offense has been known to take off quarters, it's not often that the defense gives up 6+ ypc. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart may be the 1-2 punch necessary to get the Panthers the 13 wins that Sum predicted. I still disagree.
• Arizona is up 10 points, but their games with San Fran always end up being close. For those keeping up with Martz Watch, the 49ers have 17 passes and 17 runs.

720pm

• Carolina defeats San Diego at the death behind the arm of Jake of Men and the hands of Dante Rosario, who UPS mistook for this actress.
• The first experiment of Martz-y Ball was not a success.
• MOST IMPORTANTLY, sources are now reporting that Tom Brady is OUT FOR THE YEAR with ligament damage in his left knee. There goes one of my fantasy teams and the Super Bowl hopes of the New England Patriots.

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 1

If you're in a haze from the plethora of football posts you've seen here as of late...check out Pay's latest work (posted yesterday).

Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

Well look who’s back!

I’d love to pretend you’ve missed these weekly NFL picks and fantasy “insights”; however, I’m far from that gullible.

Instead of buttering you up to start of this first-of-the-season post, I’m getting down to the nitty gritty just as quickly as I can.

Take that 5,000 word posts!

Only the late, great Hunter S. Thompson can ramble like ME!

Credit: Sam Seder Show

NFL Picks: [0-0-0] Wipe the slate clean!!!
…all spreads are courtesy of Yahoo! Sports...

Seattle @ Buffalo (-1)
If this game were in Seattle, I gotta think the spread might be up to 5.5 in their favor. While Buffalo has a healthy Marshawn Lynch and has tried to revamp the lines, Seattle’s offense seems a total unknown with Julius Jones and Nate Burleson the only skill players I recognize right now. Even so, this will be a big road win for the NFC and one of its favorites, the Hawks.

Dallas @ Cleveland (+5.5)
I don’t buy Cleveland winning a weak NFC North. I do buy Dallas winning their first playoff game in forever (96?) and then LOSING before the Super Bowl again. Maybe I’m getting a little ahead of myself though. Dallas covers this...easier than you think. I hope K2 doesn’t break his leg like he did in their last meeting.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3)
Normally most “experts” don’t touch tricky divisional openers with a pesky spread. Not me! I’m calling a PUSH (lame!), which means the ‘Aints win a pivotal Week 1 divisional game behind the leg of their kicker (whomever that is).

Saints fans are all but desperate for Bush to return to his high-flying antics of his rookie season.

Credit:NFL.com

Carolina @ San Diego (-9)
A certain staff writer loves him some Panthers, although I gotta believe he had this as one of their four losses. I’m on board too (at least on that accord); however, don’t forget how effective a healthy Jake Delhomme can be. Whoops, Steve Smith is still suspended. Chargers in a romp, in what might be Merriman’s only game of 2008.

***Upset Special***
Minnesota @ Green Bay (-2.5)
While I highly doubt Tarvaris Jackson cares the Vikes wanted Favre on their side for this matchup, I do favor the Cheeseheads in this emotional opener, I think. In the end, after flipping a coin and losing it somewhere on my office floor, I’m deciding to stick by the team with a healthy Adrian Peterson (but for how long Pay?). Take the Vikes outright for the MNF upset. Oh yeah, avoid the other MNF stinker too.


3 Must Starts and Must Sits

…START…
1) Donte Stallworth burned the Big D secondary last season up the middle for a big-time TD…and he’ll do it again this season (albeit in a different uniform). Betting against Cowboys FS Roy Williams is a wise move in fantasy football.
2) Dwayne Bowe might pile up 100+-garbage yards or more when his team is down forty to the Patsies, especially sans Assante Samuel this season.
3) Matt Ryan might not be the worst start in a 2 starting-QB league (who doesn’t do this yet?). The rookie played in a smart system at BC and has the right type of opponent for me to smell a potential “ugly” shootout.

Ummmm...yeah.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

…SIT…

1) Larry Johnson is too high of a pick for most to risk sitting (even against the Patriots). As for his counterpart Laurence Maroney, search for better options. Brady wants to prove that (whichever) foot is just fine and Belicheat knows how lethal Touchdown Tom is inside the 10…or anywhere for that matter.
2) I’m not buying the pre-season hype for Calvin Johnson to supplant Roy Williams in Detroit as their go-to-guy. I foresee a quiet afternoon for CJ. TD-less for sure. Prove me wrong Calvin.
3) Owen Daniels and Tony Scheffler are flash in the pan picks in fantasy at tight end. I don’t like either of them until they start producing more often than once every 6 weeks.

2 Guys to WATCH Intently

Kevin Smith may be the new (RB) man in Detroit…for now; yet, I’m wondering if Coach Marinelli might become a little too infatuated with (the slow and rusted) recently acquired Rudi Johnson. While Detroit is unlikely to make any significant noise in the standings, it’s two backs (sorry Tatum) may have a fantasy word or two worth checking in on early on.

Introducing...the Tatum Bell collection.

Credit: Travel Now

Trying to be as productive as possible…so I cut out all the useless jibber-jabber.
Well, some of it.
You happy?

Enjoy opening weekend, NFL and fantasy-wise.

Hopefully neither of your teams are out of it after this week.
(Gulp)

Until next time…

Fantasy Football Week: Challenge #3 – Keepers Keepers Keepers

Post III of III

Despite a somewhat flimsy premise, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the unofficial ‘Fantasy Football Week’ I sprung upon the readers of PHSports this past week.

First up was a comparison/contrast – sorta – of four drafted teams (my own, Armin’s Sum’s, and Pay’s) in a league (1 of 2) we participate in yearly.

Second was a look at the first round – all 12 picks – alongside a bit of analysis, review, and critique of decisions made. Just a bit.

The guys even sandwiched talk of a popular fantasy topic of the week: Rudi Johnson.

For my final post in this series, I bounced between targeting potential keepers that were kept from last year’s draft AND those who might be potential keepers for next year.

Fortunately, I live in the present and wanted to focus on the here and NOW!
Luck you…

As a refresher, here are the ‘keeper’ rules in our league.

Keeper Rules to KNOW and LOVE!!!

A) Each team has two keeper allocations; 1 for rounds 4-9 and 1 for rounds 10-16. Keeper allocations CAN be traded. They DO NOT carry over to next season.
B) If you drop a player during the season, you cannot keep him next year (unless due to season-ending injury or a QB-related forced drop.)

Some say I'm the harshest critic out there since this guy...

Here are ten names of ‘keepers’ I noticed in this year’s draft.
…remember that due to league rules, the 4^th round is the first round a keeper can come into play for next year…

I’ll stick with 5 rounds to make it short and sweeeeet.

4^th Round

Darkhorse: Darren McFadden

-Run DMC in part of an interesting platoon currently in Oakland, in the same backfield as a second-year QB (Russell), and as enigmatic an owner as you can imagine. Nevertheless, his talent makes you wonder if a late 1^st-round spot isn’t completely out of the question once the ’09 fantasy draft emerges.

Longshot: Reggie Bush
-Of course, this one involves…ME! Bush had a funky second-year after a “quasi-breakout” rookie campaign. Hardly a #1 back (i.e. 25+ carries a week), Bush knows he doesn’t want to be labeled a BUST (standing right next to former USC teammate Matt Leinat) and has too much talent (or is just speed) to not be an impact playmaker week in and week out (I HOPE!!!).

Seriously Reggie, can we try and get that yards per carry average up a little? Reggie? Reggie?
Credit: Sportscrack

5^th Round

Darkhorse: Calvin Johnson
-His physical attributes are astounding, Roy Williams was nearly dealt this offseason, and he might be ready to make that 3^rd-year vault (even as a fantasy 2^nd-rounder) next season.

Longshot: Jonathan Stewart
-Unless he sees a defense likened to the Skins recent pre-season effort most weeks, I really wonder that in a backfield with the still-youthful DeAngelo Williams if Stewart will make an impact this year or next…at least worthy of both selections.

7^th Round

Darkhorse: Matt Ryan
-Starting QBs are a luxury – especially in a 2 QB league – and Ryan (despite his team) has a strong pedigree and will play a lot (I think) in ’08. Those are better than average odds considering Vince Young was kept for a 5^th rounder this season.

Longshot: Felix Jones
-Julius Jones fans were more than frustrated at the Juice the past two seasons, and believe me it wasn’t due to a lack of touches. While Barber III is the class of the Cowboy backfield, could the rook be potentially an interesting 4^th-rounder next year? Me certainly hopes so!

12^th Round

Darkhorse: Brady Quinn

-Whether or not the Browns realize their potential, I’m still VERY skeptical about. Whether or not Derek Anderson is the future of this team is another GREAT question I can’t answer just yet. Either way, Quinn is a talented QB prospect and is pretty cheap (even if he doesn’t start a game), at least fantasy-wise, especially considering the keeper possibilities for the next 1-2 seasons.

I'm struggling not to label this guy a tool tool tool. Big time!
Credit: Johnston Photos

Longshot: Chad Henne
-Could one Chad one day supplant another? Possibly. Nevertheless, depending on any Phins QB in any season these days isn’t the savviest of ideas.

16^th Round

Darkhorse: Ladell Betts
-Whether or not he is a Skin at the end of this season is beyond me. Nevertheless, Portis isn’t impenetrable and Betts isn’t too far removed from a 1,000 yard campaign. He burned fantasy owners last season BIG TIME, but he’s much cheaper this time around too.

Longshot: Cadillac Williams
-Injuries have rocked his career. However, Pittman isn’t a factor anymore, Dunn is OLD, and Earnest Graham isn’t exactly a sure thing. He’ll likely get chances and chances and chances from Gruden (especially being a former top 5 pick). This could be a true diamond in the rough. In the end, what is lost with this type of last round selection?

I wonder who's driving this Cadillac?
Credit: Boatnerd

Whether or not any of these 10 players make a significant impact (positive or negative) this season might not tell their true story. In fact, it might be next season that their true analysis can be viewed in clearer sight.

Until next time…