InClement Weather: Preseason Musings

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1) Don't get too hyped on the Saints and their rather spectacular preseason thus far. It's still the defense you've come to know and love...to give up big time points to rather mediocre opponents.

Kudos to Brees though on chillin' with Carlton Banks.
Credit: TheEverAstoundingAndAmazingGoogleImageSearch

2) Tom Brady won't be missing any time due to this shoulder "issue/injury". However, he might have some durability issues by week 10 this season that could be quite alarming. Good thing he avoids Haynesworth for the rest of the season.

3) Laurence Maroney s-s-s-sucks. Big time. Sammy Morris is the most talented back on that roster.

4) Mark Sanchez nor Matthew Stafford needs to be compared to Joe Flacco, in terms of team success this season. Both are better overall QBs than Flacco though. ESPN has OVERrated the Delaware product a little too much as of late.

5) I can't describe how much better Gruden is in the booth than Kornheiser. Memo to Tony, stick to PTI and far far away from the commentator's booth.

6) Tony Dungy is going to be missed BIG time. Jim Caldwell won't be the head coach in Indy in 2-3 seasons. In fact, Indianapolis will struggle to eclipse 9 wins with Caldwell at the helm.

7) LaDanian Tomlinson has one season to cement his status as an all-time great at running back. Good luck, LT.

8) Lito Sheppard better be ready for a LOOOOOONG season opposite Darrelle Revis. He's going to hate dealing with a lot of talented #2 options (Welker, Galloway, Evans, etc.).

9) I don't like Jared Allen and I never will. I just wanted to let that be known.

10) Anyone who thinks Minnesota, especially in that locker room, is better off with Tarvaris Jackson...is an idiot. Sage might be a (slightly) different story. This team is wasting Adrian Peterson in his prime as the top back in the NFL.

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InClement Weather: Salary Crunch

Props to Armin on the fantastic work on the SWOT analysis. Be sure to check that out ASAP. His latest was the AFC North. Tweet tweet.

I'll poke my head in, if only for a moment, to talk NFL salaries. Why? Eli Manning's mega-deal (6 years at a reported $97-million, with $35-million guaranteed) has a lot of people talking.
Credit: NFLGoddess.com

No, I am not here to analyze that contract. Feel free to check that out elsewhere.

What I am here to discuss is a few interesting notes related to team salaries in 2008 and individual salaries in 2009.

Which team had the highest total payroll in 2008? I'll give you three clues:
A) They had the #1 overall pick in 1997.
B) They won a total of 5 games last season.
C) They beat Brett Favre last season.

Which team had the lowest total payroll in 2008? I'll give you three clues:
A) Their star RB likes to spit alcohol on women.
B) They're in the same division as the team listed above (highest payroll).
C) They are no longer in last place, thanks in large part to a newly acquired quarterback.

As for the rest of 2008, there were a few "team-related" surprises:
A) New England was third...to last. Wow.
B) Washington was in the middle of the pack. Wow.
C) Cleveland and New Orleans went #4 and #5 overall.
D) Despite Peyton Manning's insane contract, Indianapolis was in the bottom four.

As for the players, in 2008, the contracts were (of course) MASSIVE for the elite stars.

This man's smiling face was the NFL's highest paid defender last season. Not this year, thanks in large part to the tricky stipulations of NFL contracts.
Credit: PocatelloShops.com

Now it's important to note four things when viewing NFL player salaries, especially on a year by year basis:
1) No contract is guaranteed for every dollar on the penny. Eli signed for $97-million, but was guaranteed $35-million. I won't say only. You don't say only when $35-million is being discussed.
1) Base salary is often tiny compared to how much they make.
2) Signing bonuses often vault players you'd never expect in certain years. A 5-year/$50-million deal will almost never pay a guy $10-million exactly each season. Not a chance.
3) Cap value can be massaged quite a bit, especially with loaded contracts (whether front or back-loaded)
--> This means that a player might see 75% of his contract in a 2-3 year span, even if it's a 6 or 7-year deal. You'll see what I mean below.

For example, this guy's contract, which earned him over $27-million last season, broke down as such:
Base Salary = $ 2.5 million
Signing Bonus = $25.2 million
Other Bonus = $1,920
Cap Value = $7.9 million

That quarterback happened to win THIS.

But let's compare, for comparison's sake, him to the second highest paid quarterback, who made nearly $17-million last season, with his contract broken down as such:
Base Salary = $370,000
Signing Bonus = $0
Other Bonus = $16.5 million
Cap Value = $4.8 million

That quarterback had a QB rating of 77.2 in his second season as a quarterback, his first as the established full-time starter. Question is: will he have a third?

As for 2009, well that's not official just yet. Why? A few rookies have held out, a quarterback or two is still on the market (*cough* Favre), and the lingering CBA-crisis of 2010 has affected a few potential contract extensions (*cough* Leon Washington).

Nevertheless, Eli vaulted into the 3rd slot in 2009. Who is he behind?

Player #1: Carolina is paying this man more than $1-million a game. A GAME!!! The 1-year franchise tender made him the highest paid defensive player, if only for 1-year, E-V-E-R.

Player #2: Extending for 6-years (some semantics have it at 9-years total) at potentially $118.75-million is nothing to balk at. Especially when you've never won a playoff game. Check that. Never finished the one playoff game you were in. Okay, maybe that wasn't his fault. Nevertheless, the Bungles are paying A LOT of money for a quarterback for a perennial loser.

Right behind Eli? One name you might not know, but SHOULD and one contract you definitely know, but COULD'VE been even richer.

Leave it to the Raiders to hand out an "unprecedented contract". Fortunately, for once, the money was extremely well spent on the top cornerback in the league, Nnamdi Asomugha. Even better for the talented corner, he signed for only 3 years in Oakland...at a whopping $45.3 million. Of course, this is also the same team who gave their offensive MVP - punter Shane Lechler - a 4 year deal worth an insane $16-million. Yes, for a PUNTER!!!

Nobody was surprised when the Skins broke the bank for Haynesworth. Nobody.
Credit: Swampland.com

Albert Haynesworth, who rumors say turned down an even richer deal from Tampa Bay, broke the free agent bank biggest this offseason with a 7-year, $100-million dollar deal. That's an average of $14-million (plus) a year for the defensive tackle. Not too shabby and not too surprising considering Snyder and Cerato were involved.

If you want some outside perspective, here you go...in terms of total value:
1) A-Rod netted 10 years at $275-million from the Yanks, surpassing his previous record for a sport's contract.
2) The Yankees have handed out four of the five richest contracts ever (A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia). Surprise surprise, right?
3) Mike Vick used to have a contaract, at the time the richest in NFL history, for 10 years and $130-million. Now that's a distant memory, of course.
4) Kobe Bryant is the NBA's highest-paid player ever, pre Summer of 2010 Free Agent class though.
5) Bary Zito, Vernon Wells, and Rashard Lewis both have contracts at $126-million. Which surprises you most???

There's plenty to talk about with contracts - especially when guaranteed money is involved or not - and I plan on returning to the issue.

Of course on my teacher's salary, I'll need a good cry or two first. Tweet tweet.

InClement Weather: Free Agency Countdown

With the clock ready to strike midnight and open up the free agency floodgates, I'd like to remind people that it was the J-E-T-S that outspent everyone last year. While they improved five games from the previous campaign, it wasn't enough as 9-7 was two games out of the AFC East. Yes, they were 8-3 before someone's arm went out, too. I remember.

Yeah, it still stings.

Let's take a brief glance at 13 Questions various teams across the league have to be asking themselves.

If the boy-wonder really wants Alby to come to D.C., how many salaries must this team purge to do it?
I'm talking about YOU Jason Taylor.
Credit: AllNFLTalk.com

1) Should Dan Snyder throw a $100-million contract at DT Albert Haynesworth that he can't refuse?
Redskins fans have heard more than a few sources suggesting quite favorably that Snyder is willing to break the bank - yet again - and do whatever it takes to get the soon-to-be 30-year old DT extraordinaire to the burgundy and gold. While the guy has MVP potential on the defensive side of the ball, once defenders get their mammoth contracts; it's impossible to play up to them. I'm just sayin...

2) Which linebacker - alongside recently franchised Terrell Suggs - is most valuable to the Ravens: Ray Lewis or Bart Scott?
With Suggs in check, the focus now remains whether the heart and soul of the defense (33-year old Lewis) or the up-and-coming superstar (28-year old Scott) is a sounder investment. While it remains a longshot both will remain with the team, the Ravens do have quite a quandry on their hands. Mainly due to Big D's fascination with Lewis, a guy named Rex Ryan now coaching out in the Meadowlands, and an ever-increasing market for Scott. Good luck, Ozzie Newsome.

3) Who will be this season's Jerry Porter/David Givens?
If you don't get the reference, check your "fandom" at the door. My prime candidate is none other than Pittsburgh's Nate Washington. While a nice deep threat, the key word I like to use is: threat.

4) Which former Raven defender is Rex Ryan most likely to poach for his New York Jets?
Truth be told, safety Jim Leonhard might be the only Raven - if any - who ends up playing for Gang Green. It's rumored the Jets will guarantee $25-million over 3 years to Lewis; however, the front office has been salivating over Scott for weeks now. Neither may be a legitimate option if a bidding war ensues, truth be told.

Many Jet fans - myself included - are more worried about the apparent impending (idiotic) release of RG Brandon Moore.
Credit: NYJetsCap.com

5) Is Dallas doing the right thing by keeping Mr. Owens?
The cap hit is obvious; however, with capologists working night and day...perhaps it is finally time to cut loose the primmadonna. It won't happen though. Not with a new stadium opening and a dellusional owner trying his best to have his team playing (at home, kinda) in Super Bowl XLIV.

6) Is there any remote chance the Bidwells don't resign Kurt Warner?
Nope. Numbers have been thrown around ($2 years, 22 million) for the past 48-72 hours and we all know Warner has his best thing going in the desert. Who would've thunk that a few years ago? Not me. The status of Anquan Boldin may deter Warner from signing immediately though.

7) What is to be made of Vince Young and the Tennessee Titans?
To be honest, my wanning support for Young has become tiresome. The Titan front office has claimed they'll match any offers for Collins (Kerry, that is), although I'm not sure if other teams are exactly clammoring for the near-40 year old. Tennessee is likely to have Collins starting in Week 1 and give Young one more year to impress them, even if it's holding a clipboard.

This almost seems like it happened twenty years ago. Doesn't it?
Credit: Chron.com

8) Which wideout acquisition would satisfy Donovan F. McNabb the most?
First off, it ain't Marvin Harrison. I also highly doubt the Cardinals are willing to move Boldin to an NFC rival (and conference championship opponent, no less) without asking for a ridiculously-loaded trade. That leaves TJ Houshamazilli and a few "wiley" veterans (perhaps a Lav Coles-type) front and center. Obviously Housh is the prized offensive skill player - outside of Warner - on the market. If Philly wants to make a statement to its coach, QB, and city...they'll make a concerted run at the talented former Bengal.

9) Which route would you take at OT: young and unproven or older and established?
Tra Thomas is entering his 12th season and could anchor a veteran group deep into the playoffs. Meanwhile, Khalif Barnes has been up-and-down; especially with the last season's disaster in Jacksonville. Which route do you prefer for a franchise-making position?

10) Is Jason Brown really going to become the highest paid interrior lineman in football?
Honestly, I barely know about the guy and he's likely to net a potential $50-million contract to call out blocks and assignments for another team. One thing I do know: he won't last in Baltimore at that kind of asking price.

11) Is Derrick Ward this offseason's equivalent of Michael Turner?
No. In fact, let me clarify that. NO! Ward is a very talented guy; however, I believe he's not the dynamic #1-back Turner proved he was clearly capable of being. While Ward won't likely stay with the G-Men, the market seems kinda quiet on him - outside of Mangini's man crush on him in Cleveland - for now. I suppose he'll get Dominic Rhodes-money. Let's hope his performance for his new team is much stronger though.

12) What's to be made of this year's under-the-radar cornerback crop?
Not much. Foxworth is gonna cash in and a few other #2s may sneak their way into #1 money. Once the Raiders locked up the best CB in all of football, the position took a real notieriety hit.

Harrison come to Philly and the state of Pennsylvania? It is where he registers his gun.
Props to Tony Kornheiser for that gem.
Credit: CNNSI.com

13) Is Marvin Harrison done?
No, but I'd take a flier on Torry Holt - who may or may not become available - before I would with Harrison. Word to the wise, Marvin: follow the example of Ike Bruce in San Francisco this upcoming season and restablish yourself as a valuable veteran on an up-and-coming team.

That's all I got. Good luck to your teams. Except for Patriot fans. But remember that's it's much more likely the draft - and not free agency - that will make or break your team's near-future.

By the way - just for fun - here's the funniest show on TV you're not watching.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Baltimore at Tennessee

Tennessee Do’s and Don’t’s

Do that thing you do. Not trying to break out a lyric from a Tom Hanks movie. Just making it plain and simple. Run the ball. Ram it down their throats. The Ravens Defense is a monster, but like any defense, commitment to the run can wear them out. A heavy dose of LenDale and Johnson is the best way to get that defense on their heels.

Do free up Bulluck and Thornton so they can play all over the field. If Haynesworth is heart of the defense, Bulluck and Thornton are its soul. If the front four and Tulloch can handle their assignments, don’t be surprised if you hear Bulluck’s or Thornton’s name mentioned on a lion’s share of the plays (in a good way).

Do find a way to get Scaife involved. If the running game is churning out 3 YPC against this great Baltimore defense, Scaife needs to show his stuff on third downs as the safety-valve. Though Crumpler’s role has been as a blocking TE for most of the year, he flashed receiving skills in the past, and could offer the team another check-down option in the passing game.

Don’t let Haloti Ngata destroy your offensive line, now that there are reports of Kevin Mawae saying he can’t go. Mawae is the most important cog of that line, especially against a 3-4 defense, where he is usually asked to do more than make the initial line calls and either take on a LB or pull a double or stunt on a DT. Whichever of Leroy Harris, Jake Scott or Eugene Amano move over to center, they will have the beast, Ngata, on them most of the game, not to mention, occasionally Ray Lewis.

Don’t forget to find Justin Gage on occasion. He has four to six inches on any CB he faces on the Ravens. This mismatch should draw a safety’s attention in coverage. If Gage can draw Ed Reed, McCareins and Jones could find themselves in some decent situations in the secondary.

Baltimore Do’s and Don’t’s

Do unleash a Ravens defense, which rivals that of the Super Bowl team. They must shut down Chris Johnson and LenDale White early, forcing Kerry Collins to attempt to beat them. While Collins has a 50/50 shot at throwing 3 TDs or 3 INTs, the odds are much worse for the Ravens if Johnson and White run wild.

Do figure out who has the hot hand (or would that be “hot foot”?) early between Willis McGahee and La’Ron McClain. Will success arise from McGahee’s ability to get outside the tackles, or McClain’s bruising style up the middle? Whichever it is, a successful running game is key for either team winning this game.

Do put Ed Reed in position to get 2+ turnovers. The Ravens are undefeated in games where this ball-hawking great gets 2 or more. Success in sending Reed after Collins early will cause the Titans to change blocking schemes and take their TEs out of the passing game. Without his safety-valves, Collins will be forced to make some throws, and turnovers should ensue.

Don’t force the weight of this game onto Flacco’s shoulders. While he has had a good rookie year, the last time he faced the Titans he was picked off three times (though one was overturned). Let Flacco get his redemption by keeping his attempts around or below 25, which should also mean that other things have fallen into place for the Ravens.

Don’t let the away game have an effect on the team. This is going to be a defensive chess game that should be full of big plays (we’ll toss the offenses a couple). Just remember that the leaders of your defense already have one of those rings that you’re playing for now. There is immense value in knowing how to win when it matters. Lean on Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and let them lead the team to victory.

Key Match Ups:

When Tennessee has the Ball
LT Michael Roos vs. OLB Terrell Suggs
Will Suggs be the first NFL player this season to score a sack off Roos?

When Baltimore has the Ball
WRs Derrick Mason & Mark Clayton vs. CBs Cortland Finnegan & Nick Harper
This is one should be a great battle. Both CBs have their finesse style, but are also a lot more physical than they look. Finnegan came into his own these last two years and is playing his best football. Lately, Derrick Mason has been making the important catches that fly under the radar, gaining more of Flacco’s trust. Clayton became an occasional X-Factor receiver late in the season.

Intangibles

Head Coaching Interviews
Rex Ryan and Jim Schwartz are doing the case-study portion of their job interviews while on the sidelines. If they plan to land a head coaching job, they need to bring their best as D-Coordinators, and show that they are the right men for the available jobs. With the amount of extra effort these two should be putting into this game, I can see a defensive match up unfolding.

D-Line Health
Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch started practicing this week. They are essential for the Titans run-stopping. They can’t afford for McGahee and McClain to break off long runs, burying their team.

Final Score Prediction
Baltimore takes out the early season juggernaut in a squeaker…17-13

NFL Monday Wrap-Up

Is it fair to "wrap-up" the NFL week before Monday night's game? Yes.

We all try our best to supply a top-notch Fourcast; however, I feel the juice of a successful Sunday running through my veins (J-E-T-S) and think it's time our loyal reader(s) get to enjoy Monday analysis outside of Peter "Stiller" King and whomever else wants to rant today.

While I could generate talk of the week galore, instead I want to focus on the "awards chase", which changes weekly (of course).

Awards Index: Monday of Week 12

MVP
1) Kurt Warner
-The 300+ yards would've looked better with a W, more than 1 TD, less than 2 turnovers, and countless other reasons. Nevertheless, the Cardinals remain 7-4 and primed for a NFC West title and good shot at a bye (the NFC South will beat each other up). What was truly telling - even with the G-Men absent Jacobs & Plax - was the Cardinals expecting to win yesterday. Guess who changed that philosophy??? Warner (and Whisenhunt).
2) Peyton Manning
-Don't look now but the Colts are becoming the favorite in the AFC playoff picture. If they get in. To think, David Thomas might end up playing a huge role in a tie-breaker between Colts/Pats. The more likely scenario has the Ravens falling off and the Colts/Pats being lethal 5 and 6 seeds. Yikes.
3) Eli Manning
-Jacobs and the RBs get all the acclaim; however, it's obvious Eli is a changed QB. Despite some struggles at times, he is a poised passer who can win games. The Giants are 10-1 and the consensus best team in the league. It's because of their QB they are 10-1. Thus, the #3 slot.
4) Michael Turner
-Matt Ryan's story is getting more pub; yet, Turner changed Atlanta. A few frowned at how much of an impact he could have, until he finally won me over with a 4 TD day. He's 3rd in the NFL in rushing and is a fantasy force to boot. Turner has Atlanta in prime contention for a playoff spot. Nobody saw that. NOBODY.
5) Brett Favre
-Jets fan, right? Of course. Check the atmosphere in New York around Favre and the team. He breeds confidence and winning. The Jets are 8-3. After the 1-2 start and that loss at Oakland, I questioned the move. Now, I realize why Green Bay fans love the guy so much. He's an egotistical prick who wanted everything handed to him. Now, he's winning with a team that has a lot more talent - and spent their money oh so well this off-season - and is becoming dangerous.

Offensive Player of the Year
1) Clinton Portis
-On a gimpy knee he carried the Skins to victory in Seattle. Then Ladell Betts ruined it. Why Jim Zorn had to back up Betts the way he did is beyond me.
2) Adrian Peterson
-Durability is still an issue...or is it? A-Pete is likely to take home a rushing crown, but can he get his team into the playoffs out of a crowded NFC North?
3) Kurt Warner
-As talented as Fitz/Boldin/Breaston are, do you honestly think Matt Leinart would have them at numbers anywhere close to they are now? Seriously?
4) Brandon Jacobs
-Missed a week; however, his rushing prowess, goalline abilities, and the steamrolling attitude has been a godsend for the Giants. He's also made Derrick Ward and Bradshaw better because their contrasting styles are a nightmare after Jacobs bulldozes you.

Defensive Player of the Year
1) Kris Jenkins
-Slips past Alby due to shutting down he gameplan for the Titans. Guess how many rushing attempts Len Dale had? ONE. That isn't because the Titans planned on passing. (Not with Revis, Rhodes, & Elam playing so well) Instead, the Titans knew Jenkins would swallow up the inside rush attack and CJ had to be deployed outside the tackles. Didn't work either way. Jenkins or Favre is a great "better off-season trade" debate.
2) Albert Haynesworth
-One week doesn't take away from an incredible campaign. He is getting better. Although, I don't like the excuses of him being dinged up in the second half. He was barely a factor in the first. Faneca has breathed life back into Mangold. It's ironic Mangold and Mawae were on the same field yesterday, at least for me.
3) Charles Woodson
-He might intercept 12 passes...tonight. Drew Brees is overrated as an offensive force. So what if he throws for a lot of yards. His team constantly underachieves and it isn't 100% the defense. The offense makes plenty of mistakes, including Brees. As Pay told me, his stats are biggest in his losses. I smell a pick-six for good old AllProCW2 (plug!).
4) Julius Peppers
-His return to dominance might've been rushed. He's been a force this year, yet I want to see it in a big game. A really big game. He'll get his shot soon enough.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
1) Matt Ryan
-If you thought the Falcons would be 7-4 and that Ryan would have 7 games without an INT, go to Vegas and start placing multiple bets.
2) Joe Flacco
-If you thought Joe Flacco would be 7-4 as a rookie starting QB, you'd have to think the Ravens defense from 2000 was cloned in 2K8.
3) Matt Forte
-Amazing he's an obvious third-selection. The guy is a force of nature as of late. By the way, this dude can catch the ball too. If anything, he would've been a great third down back by this point for any other team who might've drafted him.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
1) Jerod Mayo
-Enough said. Oh wait, he's a BEAST. (Damn Patsies)

I'll let you all worry about Comeback and Executive of the Year and all the rest.

Although I gotta give more Jet love to our former QB Chad Pennington.
Could he really win Comeback Player of the Year two years in a row?
Stranger things have happened...

See you next Monday!!!